MS Risk Blog

Pakistani Christian Attack Leads to Community Anger and Fear

Following a devastating terrorist attack on members of Pakistan’s small Christian minority at the weekend, leading community figures are expressing concerns both about the reaction of major political figures and despair about the government’s apparent inability to prevent such attacks, along with fear about the possibility the community may be targeted again. Pakistan has seen widespread demonstrations and unrest as a result of the bombing, attributed to factions of the Pakistani Taliban and widely seen as likely torpedoing recent government overtures to the militants controlling large parts of the country.

The attack happened on Sunday, 22^nd September. Two suicide bombers attacked the congregation at the 100 year old All Saints church in Peshawar just after the Sunday service had finished. 85 people were killed in the blasts, which left over 120 injured. This was Pakistan’s worst ever attack on the Christian minority, and it bore the hallmarks of many similar incidents targeting Pakistan’s Shia population.

Junood ul-Hifsa, a branch of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP, the ‘Pakistani Taliban)’, claimed responsibility for the attack. This is the same group that reportedly murdered 11 foreign climbers at the base of the mountain Nanga Parbat in June this year. Junood ul-Hifsa was reportedly established to target foreigners and non-Muslims in retaliation for American drone strikes against militants. Another terrorist group with links to the TTP, Jandullah, also claimed responsibility for the attack, and it remains unclear who exactly perpetrated the bombing as yet. The TTP’s main spokesman officially denounced the bombing; however the TTP’s usual practice is to deny involvement in bombings with large civilian casualties.

The attack led to widespread protests and community anger throughout the country. Crowds took to the streets in Peshawar, Islamabad, Lahore and Karachi to demonstrate against the Government’s apparent failure to protect minority groups, with the police being forced to use tear gas in some cases. Increasing ethnic homogenisation has seen Pakistan’s ethnic minority population decrease from 15% to 4% currently. Christians make up only 1.8% of Pakistan’s population, and are an extremely politically weak ethnic group as a result.

While this is the first major terrorist attack on Christians (with past attacks often focusing on Shia Muslims instead), the Christian minority has for many years suffered from persecution in the country. Largely poor and impoverished, they have been a common target for vindictive prosecutions under blasphemy laws, which are largely used to settle scores. In March of this year, communal violence erupted after blasphemy accusations and saw the torching of dozens of Christians homes by a Muslim mob, while in 2010 a prominent politician who defended a Christian accused of blasphemy was murdered by his own police bodyguard. Members of Pakistan’s Christian community worry that the country’s spiralling Sunni/Shia violence will begin to spill over and target them in future after this latest attack.

The incident is also a blow for the Pakistani government’s hope to begin some form of peace talks with the TTP. The government of Nawaz Sharif had been criticised in the past for focusing on economic issues and lacking any clear political will to tackle Pakistan’s deteriorating security situation.  However, late last month they made a controversial overture to the TTP regarding the possibility of negotiations. These talks divided the Taliban movement, with some rejecting any possibility of talks and others cautiously welcoming the possibility. The chances of success are now low, after both this attack and the murder of a senior army commander last week. Some analysts believe the offer of talks by the government is in fact a ploy – by offering seemingly impossible negotiations to an extremely fragmentary coalition of terrorists, the subsequent breakdown of talks may allow the government to build public support for a harsh military crackdown to restore some semblance of order.

While in the past foreigners were rarely targeted in the country’s endemic terrorist violence, the attack on Nanga Parbat on June and this recent bombing of Christian’s suggests attacks may be broadening in scope from their traditional targets of security forces or Shia Muslims. An extremely high degree of security awareness should be maintained at all times while in Pakistan.

Guinea’s Long-Delayed Elections Set to Take Place September 28

Guinea’s long-delayed legislative elections, which were scheduled to occur on Tuesday, have been postponed by four days to September 28 after talks were held on Saturday in Conakry between the opposition and the government.  The talks over the weekend come after Guinea’s main opposition leader threatened to call protests if officials went forwards with the elections without fully addressing the complaints pertaining to preparations.  The opposition has complained that the voter list contains a number of errors, effectively meaning that many of its supporters have been left off the list while some people have been registered several times.  It has also complained that polling stations in oppositions strongholds have been scattered far apart, meaning that voters would have to travel far and therefore would be less likely to vote.  Following Saturday’s talks, Cellou Dalein Diallo, the main opposition leader, has stated that although he wants a longer delay in order to fix the issues, he is satisfied with the compromised date of September 28.

The elections are meant to complete the country’s transition back to civilian rule however they have been repeatedly delayed since current President Alpha Conde was elected three years ago.  These delays have effectively created doubts about the political progress not only amongst Guineans, but investors and donor.  The West African nation’s economic growth forecast has been cut to 2.9 percent for this year, down from 4.5 percent.  This is a result of the protests and ongoing political issues.

Over the past several months, dozens of people have been killed in protests over the election preparations.  Furthermore, while this delay will allow organizers to address some of the issues, it is likely that the fundamental lack of trust between between the two sides and the election commission will continue, meaning that tensions are likely to simmer.

Hostage Situation Continues at a Shopping Centre in Nairobi, Kenya

On Monday, Kenyan security forces announced that they were attempting to clear the Westgate shopping complex in Nairobi after a three-day siege.

Earlier on Monday, sources outside the Westgate shopping centre reported that explosions and heavy  gunfire were heard as soldiers stormed the mall where suspected al-Shabaab militants are thought to be holed up.  The Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) have also indicated that three terrorists had been killed and that all escape routes inside the centre have been sealed off.  Flames and thick smoke continues to rise from the building, with KDF officials stating that the fire had been started by “terrorists to distract the ongoing operation.”  The blaze is currently being managed by firefighters.  On the ground sources have reported that the attack was carried out by ten to fifteen militants, with officials stating that some of them are still on the run, hiding in shops.  The Kenyan government has also stated that almost all of the hostages have been evacuated from the shopping centre, however it remains unclear whether any are still in the hands of the militants.  This may be one of the reasons why authorities are moving cautiously in an attempt to ensure that there is no further loss of life.  Security has increased throughout the country.  The Interior Ministry has issued regular warning for people to stay away from the area for their own safety.  Security at entrance and exit points across the country has also been stepped up, with the ministry confirming that “more than ten individuals” have been arrested in relation to the attack.

Three Day Siege Began on Saturday

The official death toll stands at 62, with more than 170 injured.  Eleven KDF soldiers have also been injured during the operation  The three-day siege started on Saturday when militants entered the Westgate centre at about 12:00 local time (09:00 GMT), throwing grenades and firing automatic weapons.  Although dozens of shoppers fled the scene, many remained trapped inside.  Some witnesses reported on Saturday that the gunmen had told Muslims to leave and that non-Muslims would be targeted.  In a nationally televised address on Saturday, Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta indicated that the operation to secure the mall and catch the gunmen was ongoing.  As on the ground sources reported that officers were going from shop to shop in order to secure the area, a senior al-Shabaab figure confirmed that the militant group was responsible for carrying out the deadly attack on the shopping centre.  On its Twitter account, al-Shabaab stated that it was behind what it called the “Westgate spectacle,” adding that the attack was in response to Kenya’s ongoing presence in Somalia.  Some seven hours after the initial assault began, al-Shabaab indicated on its Twitter account that its fighters were still battling Kenyan security forces inside the Westgate centre.  However a security source had indicated that police and soldiers had finally “pinned down” the gunmen in one corner of the shopping centre after several hours of fighting.  Kenyan officials also stated that four gunmen have been arrested and that one died of his wounds.

On Sunday, Kenya’s President stated that the country would remain united and strong in the wake of the deadly attack.  The announcement came as witnesses outside a security cordon reported gunfire and a large explosion, with increased gunfire occurring around 16:00 GMT on Sunday.  Between ten and fifteen attackers, all believed to be al-Shabaab militants, were still inside the complex along with some civilians who are still trapped, either as hostages or in hiding.  Some reports have indicated that the gunmen are holed up in a supermarket and that there are a number of women who have been reported to be amongst the attackers, however these reports have yet to be confirmed.  Al-Shabaab has claimed that there are currently at least thirty-six hostages being held inside the complex, however this number cannot be confirmed.  During a news conference on Sunday Kenya’s President stated that “the criminals are now located in one place within the building,” adding that “with the professionals on site, we have as good a chance to neutralize the terrorists as we could hope for.”  He also thanked those who helped with the rescue efforts, and asked other countries not to issue travel advisories against visiting Kenya

Amongst the confirmed dead are Mr. Kenyatta’s nephew and his fiancee.  The UK Foreign Office has also confirmed that three Britons have been killed, noting that the number is likely to rise.  French, Chinese, Ghanaian, Dutch, South African, Indian and Canadian nationals are also among the foreigners confirmed killed, along with a dual Australian-British national.  The wife of an American working for the US Agency for International Development was also killed along with prominent Ghanaian poet Kofi Awoonor, who was attending a literary festival in Nairobi.

Who are al-Shabaab

Al-Shabaab, which is based in Somalia, has links to al-Qaeda and although the Somali government has pushed the militant group out of a majority of the main towns it once controlled in southern and central Somalia, this latest deadly attack carried out on a shopping centre in neighbouring Kenya proves that the militant group remains a potent threat.

In Arabic, al-Shabaab means “the youth.”  The group emerged in 2006 as the radical youth wing of Somali’s now obsolete Union of Islamic Courts was fighting Ethiopian troops who had entered into Somalia in order to back the weak interim government.  It is banned as a terrorist group by both the United States and the United Kingdom.  There have been numerous reports that foreign jihadists have travelled to Somalia in order to help al-Shabaab which strives to impose a strict form of Sharia law in those areas under its control.  Al-Shabaab’s version of Sharia law includes stoning to death women who have been accused of adultery as well as amputating the hands of thieves.

While over the past two years, al-Shabaab has lost control of the towns and cities thorughout central and southern Somalia, the militant group continues to control many rural areas in the region.  The group was forced out of the capital city of Mogadishu in August 2011 and in September 2012, they left the vital southern port of Kismayo.  The port city had been a key asset for the militants as it effectively allowed supplies to reach areas under their control, providing taxes for their operations.  While the African Union (AU), which is currently supporting Somali government forces, hailed the withdrawal of al-Shabaab from Kismayo and Mogadishu as a great success, the militant group continues to carry out frequent attacks in Mogadishu and elsewhere.  Furthermore, although they have lost control of the major cities, al-Shabaab has increasingly been focusing on a guerrilla style of warfare that has effectively made the group more potent.

Rarely seen in public, Ahmed Abdi Godane is the head of the group.  Also known as Mukhtar Abu Zubair, al-Shabaab’s leader comes from the northern breakaway region of Somaliland.  He is known for his hardline and international agenda and is responsible for the group’s close links with al-Qaeda.  Godane announced in February 2012 that al-Shabaab joined forces with al-Qaeda.  In a joint video, Godane stated that he “pledged obedience” to al-Qaeda leader al-Zawahiri.

While the group has carried out a number of attacks within Somalia, with attacks increasing in recent months, al-Shabaab has carried out deadly attacks outside of the country as well.  The most recent was carried out on a shopping centre in Nairobi, Kenya on 21 September, in which at least sixty-eight people were killed.  It was responsible for a double suicide bombing in Uganda’s capital, Kampala, which killed seventy-six people who were watching the 2010 football World Cup final on television.  The attack was carried out because Uganda, along with Burundi, were responsible for providing the bulk of AU troops in Somalia prior to Kenya sending in its own troops.  The 2002 twin attacks on Israeli targets near the Kenyan resort of Mombasa were allegedly planned in Somalia by an al-Qaeda cell, while officials in the US believe that some of the al-Qaeda operatives responsible for carrying out the 1998 attacks on its embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam fled to Somalia shortly after the attacks.

Security Forces Battle Boko Haram Militants in Southern Capital City

Security forces in in Nigeria’s capital Abuja have indicated that a cell of suspected Islamist militants has opened fire on its forces.  If confirmed, this would be the first time that Boko Haram has staged an attack in Abuja this year.  In turn, it has cast doubts on claims that the group’s rebellion has been contained.  Attacks in the northeastern region of the country have increased recently despite the massive military deployment and state of emergency in the worst-affected areas.  In the latest incident to occur in the northern state of Borno, officials have stated that at least eighty-seven people have been killed by militants, who disguised themselves in military uniforms at a checkpoint outside the town of Benisheik.  Officials have reported that the militants shot dead those trying to flee.

According to the State Security Service, Nigeria’s spy agency, the clash occurred at about 03:00 local time after a tip off pertaining to the location of a suspected Boko Haram weapons cache.  On the ground sources have indicated that the shooting occurred at a two-storey building which is under construction in Abuja’s Apo district, which is home to a huge residential complex for Nigerian parliamentarians.  Reports also indicate that the building has been used by young men where they sleep at night.  According to the agency, the security team which approached the building, had been acting on information that was received from two men.  A statement from the State Security Service further noted that “no sooner had the team commenced digging for the arms, than they came under heavy gunfire attack by other Boko Haram elements.”  The Agency did not provide an further details pertaining to the casualties however eye witnesses have reported seeing nine bodies.

Meanwhile the attack in Benisheik took place on Tuesday however news of it has been slow to emerge as all phone lines in the region have been cut in an effort to help the ongoing military offensive.  According to security sources, Boko Haram militants drove into the town in about twenty pick-up trucks.  In what is one of the deadliest attacks to occur in the region since the state of emergency was declared, over the last three days, witnesses have reported health workers loading dead bodies onto trucks, with some reports indicating that the militants have killed more than 140 people.  According to an officials within the state’s environmental protection agency, “apart from the dead bodies recovered today (Thursday), we collected 55 on Wednesday and the fact is that we did not go deep into the bush where I strongly believe that many people have fallen there.”  There was also an attack that occurred on Wednesday night in neighboring Yobe State, which is also under a state emergency but which has not witnesses a high level of violence such as Borno state.  Sources have indicated that Boko Haram militants attacked the town at about 22:30, burning the police station along with other public buildings.  State police commissioner Sanusi Rufa’i has stated that “a soldier was killed in a shootout and the wive of the divisional police chief was burnt to death in her home.”

While this is attack is the first to occur in Abuja this year, Nigeria’s capital city had already suffered two major Boko Haram attacks two years ago.  The first occurred when a suicide bomber rammed a car into the police headquarters in June 2011, killing eight people.  Two months later, the group attacked the United Nations Headquarters, killing twenty-three people.  This most recent attack however is startling as it comes at a time when the country is experiencing a military offensive in three northern states coupled with a state of emergency that has been in place since May of this year.  In turn, the attack comes at a time when analysts have increasingly warned that while the military offensive may route out Boko Haram militants from the affected northern state, it may also drive them further south and into the neighboring states, therefore further exacerbating the issue.

Hostage Video Is First Proof-of-Life Since France’s Military Intervention in Mali

Al-Qaeda’s north African branch has released a video depicting seven kidnapped Westerners.  The video was received by Mauritanian news agency ANI, which indicates that all the captives seemed to be in good health.  France’s Foreign Ministry has announced that the hostage video seems to be “credible.”

The newly released video depicts seven hostages, including four Frenchmen and a Dutchman, who were kidnapped from a uranium compound in northern Niger exactly three years ago; along with a Swede and a South African who were abducted from a hostel in Timbuktu in northern Mali November 2011 in an attack that left a German man dead.  In the video, which was released to Mauritanian news agency ANI, Frenchman Daniel Larribe, 61, introduces himself as the head of the French group, stating that he was kidnapped by militants belonging to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).  According to ANI, Mr. Larribe states that he is “…in good health but threatened with death,” adding that he holds the French authorities responsible for his fate.  The video also includes statements from the other French hostages, including Pierre Legrand, Theirry Dol and Marc Feret as well as South African Stephen Malcolm, Dutchman Sjaak Rijke and Swede Johna Gustafsson.  It also shows the French hostages reportedly urging the French administration, as well as their family members, to work for their release.  At the time of their kidnapping, the four Frenchmen were mostly working for French public nuclear giant Areva and its subcontractor Satom.  They were kidnapped in Arlit, northern Niger, on 16 September 2010.  At the time, Daniel’s wife, Francoise Larribe, was also captured however she was released in 2011.

Although it remains unclear when the video was made, officials from ANI have indicated that the messages recorded by the French hostages were made in June of this year.  Furthermore, this is the first video that is said to depict the men since France launched an intervention in Mali in January after al-Qaeda-linked militants threatened to overrun the capital Bamako.

According French Foreign Ministry spokesman, Philippe Lalliot, “based on an initial analysis, the video seems credible to us and provides new proof of life of the four French hostages kidnaped in Arlit (northern Niger) on September 16, 2010,” adding that the footage was being authenticated.

AQIM is currently believed to be holding eight European hostages, including five French nationals.  According to French prosecutors, one of the French hostages, Philippe Verdon, who was kidnapped in Mali in 2011 and found dead earlier this year, was executed with a shot to the head.  Officials in France believe that his killing was in retaliation to France’s intervention in Mali.  A fifth hostage, Serge Lazarevic, was kidnapped along with Mr. Verdon from their hotel in Hombori on the night of 24 November 2011.  Shortly after their kidnapping, the families of the two men insisted that they were not mercenaries or secret service agents.  These comments were in response to threats made by AQIM militants stating that the two hostages would be killed as they were French spies.

While the newly released video depicts the pleas of the French hostages for their release, it is highly unlikely that the French government will get involved, and that their plight will be publicly discussed.  Although in July of this year French President Francois Hollande announced that France was “doing everything” to bring the hostages back, he indicated that officials would “…not talk so as not to complicate a situation which is bad enough.”