MS Risk Blog

Party Calls for Nationwide Protests in Tunisia

Tunisia’s opposition alliance, the National Salvation Front (NSF) has called for country wide protests in all regions, and particularly in the capital, Tunis, on 23 October. The opposition believes that the Ennahda party is wilfully delaying the formation of a new government, and purposefully stalling negotiations.

On 5 October, the Ennahda party agreed to a political roadmap which would work toward the creation of a new caretaker government within three weeks. The roadmap includes the creation and passing of a new constitution and electoral laws, and a timetable for parliamentary and presidential elections. The transition date had been set for Sunday, 26 October.

However, on 6 October, Ennahda issued a statement calling for “the continuation of the current government until the completion of the constitutional tasks of the Assembly.” This statement directly contradicts the roadmap.

Prime Minister Ali Laarayedh has demanded four conditions be met before the current government is dissolved: the ratification of Tunisia’s new constitution, the reform of election oversight committees, the publication of new election procedures, and a clear date to be set for and parliamentary elections.

The Prime Minister insists that these demands are to ensure that the transition possible is smooth and free of political vacuum. To this end, the date of resignation of the current government was left open by Laarayedh, who said, “There is not a definitive time yet for the resignation of the current government.”

The NSF has accused the Ennahda party of attempting to buy time and failing to live up to their commitment. In response, Laarayedh said the problem with the transition is not the resignation of the government, but the need to maintain administrative continuity and “creating a solid foundation for a democratic environment.”

Complicating Tunisia’s political crisis is a security battle, particularly against armed Islamic extremist movements. The hard-core Salafist group, Ansar Al-Sharia, has been accused of carrying out the murder of Mohamed Brahmi, a left-wing MP, in July. The assassination put political progress at a standstill and deepened the political crisis.

Further, on 16 October, two Tunisian National Guard barracks on the border with Algeria were attacked by terrorist groups. The barracks are part of an advanced border monitoring system. While there have been no reports of casualties among the guards, the areas where the attacks were conducted are some of the most critical in the anti-terrorism system set up between Tunisia and Algeria.

Opposition leaders accuse Ennahda of failing to develop plans to ensure the safety of Tunisians. Laarayedh said that the situation was complex, and that part of the problem was the weakened government in neighbouring Libya, which has failed to mitigate smuggling and illegal weapons trade. The prime minister denied the existence of any accurate information on the quantity of weapons trafficked into Tunisia from Libya.

The scheduled date of the protests, October 23^rd marks the two year anniversary of the election of the National Constitution Assembly. The opposition party has also accused Ennahda of mismanaging the economy and failing to improve living standards; these were the initial causes of the uprising in Tunisia in 2010-2011.

Afghanistan Governor Assassinated During Speech

Yesterday, October 15^th, the governor of Afghanistan’s strategically crucial Logar province was assassinated as he was due to make a speech marking the holiday of Eid al-Adha. This killing is one of few major assassinations of prominent government officials this year; however it highlights the continued goal of insurgents in Afghanistan to deprive the coalition-backed government of competent officials in light of coming elections and the withdrawal of ISAF forces in 2014.

Governor Arsallah Jamal was preparing to give a speech at a mosque in Logar province, when a bomb apparently planted inside the microphone he was due to use was detonated, killing him instantly. At least 15 others were injured, 8 of whom remain in a critical condition. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, however a faction of the Taliban insurgency is almost certainly responsible.

Though Arsallah Jamal had only been appointed as governor of Logar in April, he had previously served as governor of the province of Khost, which shares a border with Pakistan’s tribal region of Waziristan. He was an expert in rural development, and had worked for numerous NGOs, most recently in Canada. He was a close friend of President Hamid Karzai, and managed his 2009 election campaign. Arsallah Jamal had also survived assassination attempts in the past.

The attack took place in Logar’s provincial capital, Pul-e-Alam, a mere 37 miles south of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul.  Logar is a strategically vital province sometimes referred to as the “gate to Kabul”, lying as it does directly to the south and controlling many of the major road approaches to the capital. Insurgents have stepped up their campaign in the province this year, which has seen violence skyrocket and large swathes of Logar fall under Taliban control. Taliban control of Logar would make it far easier for them to launch attacks in Kabul.

Logar province is also the location of the world’s second biggest copper mine, Aynak, the mining rights to which were awarded to a Chinese firm in 2009. Getting the mine up and running was one of Jamal’s major priorities, and may have contributed to his death. Alternatively, Jamal also made the news recently when he revealed that the US military had recently arrested Latif Mehsud, a senior commander in the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), something else that may have made him a target.

Insurgents in Afghanistan have also waged a long running campaign targeting government officials, in hopes of reducing the ability of Hamid Karzai’s government to function. Over 1000 mid-level officials have been assassinated in the past ten years, while several high profile officials, including numerous provincial governors, have also been murdered. With the state bureaucracy and military of Afghanistan weak, the removal of competent officials, leaders and managers could have serious long-term implications on the sustainability of state institutions. Leadership of provincial governors is also regarded as a key factor in delivering next year’s presidential election.

Four Hostages Released in Syria However Fate of Remaining Three Remains Unknown

On Monday, one day after six Red Cross workers were kidnapped in northwestern Syria, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) announced that three of the six Red Cross Members, along with a Syrian Red Crescent volunteer were “released safe and sound” in Syria. While it is known that the four aid workers were released in Idlib province, near the Turkish border, the circumstances under which they were released have not been made public.  The humanitarian organization added that it was waiting on information relating to the three remaining workers.  While Syrian state television blamed, what it called, armed terrorists, which is a term that has been frequently used to describe anti-government rebels, It remains unclear who is responsible for the kidnappings however hardline Islamist rebels are known to operate in the area and may be responsible for this latest incident.

The news of the release of the four hostages comes at a time when Syrian rebels have been urged to agree to a local ceasefire in order to allow access to international inspectors, who are working to locate and destroy the government’s chemical weapons arsenal.

On Sunday, gunmen abducted six Red Cross workers along with a local volunteer of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent near Saraqeb, in Idlib province, in northwestern Syria.  The team had been on their way back to Damascus after delivering medical supplies in Sarmin and Idlib.  The news of the kidnapping was confirmed by officials at the ICRC.  ICRC spokesman Ewan Watson stated that “we are calling for the immediate and unconditional release of this team which was delivering humanitarian assistance to those in need – and we do that on both sides of the front lines.”  The humanitarian agency also indicated that it had no contact with the unidentified gunmen but it was appealing for the seven to be freed immediately.  The nationalities and gender of the ICRC staff has not been revealed however it is believed that the group includes both local and international staff in which most are thought to be medical specialists.

Syrian state media had reported the kidnapping earlier that day, stating that gunmen had kidnapped the Red Cross workers after they opened fire on their vehicles.  Quoting an unnamed official, state news agency SANA indicated that the workers were travelling in the Idlib area when gunmen blocked their path, shot at the convoy, seized them and took them to an undisclosed location.  Although the ICRC spokesman was not able to confirm whether or not shots had been fired during the kidnapping, the ICRC has indicated that the team’s vehicles were missing.

Kidnappings, especially of aid workers and journalists, have become increasingly common in northern Syria.  In August of this year, the ICRC indicated that the number of Syrian Arab Red Crescent volunteers who had lost their lives since the start of the conflict had risen to twenty-two.  Although the rebels have captured a number of regions in the north, government forces continue to have some degree of control over the many urban centers that are located in the region.  This has resulted in fighting which typically occurs on a daily basis.  The conflict, which has been ongoing for two-and-a-half years, has claimed more than 100,000 lives and has driven more than 2.1 million citizens out of the country.

International Officials Condemn Thursday’s Kidnapping of Libya’s Prime Minister

Officials in France, the United States and the United Kingdom, along with the United Nations Secretary-General, have condemned the abduction of Libya’s Prime Minister.  Shortly after his release, Prime Minister Ali Zeidan accused a “political party” of organizing his brief abduction, which was carried out by armed gunmen during the early morning hours on Thursday.  The latest incident to stun Libya has further reflected the weakness of the country’s government.

During the early morning hours on Thursday, Libya’s Prime Minister Ali Zeidan was abducted from a luxury hotel, the Corinthia, in downtown Tripoli and held for several hours by armed militiamen.  Photographs depicted Mr. Zeidan being surrounded by more than 100 armed men and being led away.  There were no reports of violence during his capture.  Sources have indicated that the Prime Minister was abducted with two of his guards, who were beaten and later released.  Shortly after his abduction, an employee of the hotel where Mr. Zeidan was living in indicated that a “large number of armed men” had entered the building.  Although a statement later released by the Libyan government indicated that Mr. Zeidan had been taken “to an unknown destination for unknown reasons by a group” of men believed to be former rebels, eye witness accounts reported that the Prime Minister was held at a police station south of the capital and that his captors had decided to release him after armed residents surrounded the building and demanded that he be released.

Shortly after his release later on Thursday, Mr. Zeidan met with his minister and members of the General National Congress (GNC), which is Libya’s highest political authority.  The Prime Minister appeared to be in good health as he arrived at government headquarters later on Thursday.  He was seen waving to waiting well-wishers as he climbed out of an armored car.  Reports have indicated that the Prime Minister has accused a “political party” of organizing his brief abduction.  In comments that were later broadcast by state television as he left a cabinet meeting, the Prime Minister indicated that “it’s a political party which wants to overthrow the government by any means,” adding that “in the coming days, I will give more information on who this political party is that organized by kidnapping.”  While the Prime Minister has praised the armed groups that came to rescue him, he has called for calm, stating that “…this problem will be resolved with reason and wisdom” and without any “escalation.”  His comments reflect a need for ease as tensions have been rising in Libya ever since US commandos carried out a secretive military operation over the past weekend.

While the motive of the abduction remains unclear, some officials have indicated that it appeared to be in retaliation for the US special forces raid that seized a Libyan al-Qaeda suspect off the streets of Tripoli.  Some militias throughout the country have been angered by last Saturday’s US commando raid to capture Anas al-Libi, a senior al-Qaeda suspect, who has since been taken away to a warship in the mediterranean where US officials are questioning him about his supposed links to al-Qaeda.  In turn, the abduction of Mr. Zeidan has aptly demonstrated the weakness of Libya’s government, which has had difficulties inserting its control amongst a number of powerful militias.  Militants were angered by the US capture of the suspected militant and have accused the government of either colluding in, or allowing the raid to occur.  Furthermore, confusion pertaining to the Prime Minister’s kidnapping was increased after varying reports indicated that he had been arrested.  In the absence of an affective police force or military in Libya, many of the militias in the country are under the pay of either the defence or interior ministries however their allegiance and who really controls them is in doubt.

Meanwhile international officials have condemned the kidnapping of Libya’s Prime Minster.  The United States has denounced the kidnapping, with US Secretary of State John Kerry calling the act “thuggery.”  The Secretary of State also noted that “today’s events only underscore the need to work with Prime Minister Zeidan and with all of Libya’s friends and allies to help bolster its capacity with greater speed and greater success,” adding that there could be “no place for this kind of violence in the new Libya.”  A statement released by the UN on behalf of Secretary General Ban Ki-moon urged all Libyans to respect the rule of law, noting that “the secretary-general calls on all Libyan parties and the Libyan people to form consensus around national priorities and work towards building a strong, stable country, respectful of the rule of law and the protection of human rights.”  officials in France and the UK also pledged swift support for Mr. Zeidan.  French President Francois Hollande stated that he stood ready to strengthen ties with Libya in order to tackle the militants.  Meanwhile a spokesman for David Cameron indicated that the UK’s prime Minister had spoken to a “calm and measured” Ali Zeidan after his release and had promised to help build a “stable, free, peaceful and prosperous” Libya.

Tensions Rise in Mali as the Security Begins to Deteriorate Amidst Fresh Clashes in the North

Reports have indicated that Islamist militants blew up a bridge on Tuesday, leaving two civilians wounded, just one day after they shelled the northern town of Gao.  The sharp rise in attacks over the past few days largely stems from the Tuareg separatists’ decision to withdraw from the peace process.

According to Ibrahim Cisse, a local councillor for the Gao region, “early this Tuesday, Islamists dynamited one of two small bridges…near Bentia, about 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the border with Niger, leaving two civilians wounded.  The local councillor further added that the assailants, who were “wearing turbans,” had arrived by motorbike at the bridge that crosses the Niger River at Bentia and proceeded to destroy it.  According to a police source in Gao, “in this place, there are two small bridges.  The aim of the Islamists was to blow up both bridges, but fortunately, only the old one was badly damaged,” adding that “the new bridge, which is the most frequently used, sustained only very light damage.”   On the ground sources have reported that Malian soldiers were sent to the area, along with French troops who were deployed in the northern desert region, in order “to avoid other acts of sabotage” by armed extremists.

The two bridges in Bentia were attacked just one day after armed militant fired shells on the northern Malian city of Gao, the first attack on the insurgents’ former stronghold in months.  Suspected Islamist militants targeted the city with artillery fire on Monday, wounding one Malian soldier.  Although the attack was similar to the guerrilla-warfare that was used by the insurgents in the months following the January offensive, until Monday’s violence, the area had not seen an attack since May.  The attack was confirmed by residents and Idrissa Cisse, a municipal official in Gao, who stated that “this morning from around 06:30 (0630 GMT) a series of four explosions hit the town. One Malian soldier was wounded and a house was damaged.”  By mid-morning, French helicopters were patrolling the skies, with local residents stating that calm had been restored in the city.  A spokesman for an al-Qaeda splinter group, the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), indicated that the group had claimed responsibility for the attack on Gao, warning that further such operations would be carried out.

The attacks on Bentia and Gao also come a week after a suicide bomb attack in Timbuktu killed two civilians and four bombers, and left seven Malian soldiers wounded.  According to eye witness accounts, the suicide bombers detonated their vehicle near the Malian army camp in Timbuktu, killing both the themselves and two civilians.  Responsibility for the attack was claimed by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), which was founded in Algeria and which operates across the Sahel region south of the Sahara.  The suicide car bomb attack was the first to occur since Mali’s presidential election.  The attack also came a few days after Tuareg separatists pulled out of a ceasefire agreement and peace process with the new Malian government.

In the wake of rising tensions in the north of Mali, Mali’s Defence Minister Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga has stated that he wants to “reassure the population that in coordination with our partners in Serval (the French military operation) and MINUSMA (the UN’s African military force in Mali), our deployment has been strengthened.”  He also urged the population “to remain calm and above all to share information with personnel of the armed forces and security forces in order to help them track down the enemy in all its forms.”  The recent rise in tensions also force Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita to cut his visit to France short where he was holding talks with his French counterpart on the current security status of his country.  During a meeting that was held last week, the Presidents of France and Mali warned that a “terrorist” resurgence in the Sahel region might be possible after new fighting between the insurgents and military had occurred in recent days.  In a joint statement released by Hollande’s office shortly after the talks, the two leaders stated that “the Franco-African intervention put an end to the terrorist threat, but it could try to rebuild…we must remain vigilant.”