MS Risk Limited |

15 Sep The Blueprint Precedent – Will Britain’s Missile Decision Change Western Arms Support?

Posted at 23:39h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The UK’s August 2026 decision to permit MBDA to release classified information on British components of the SCALP cruise missile marks a shift from supplying completed weapons towards transferring the knowledge required to sustain production. The decision does not give Ukraine complete independent Storm Shadow...

15 Sep A Deadline Redefined: Iraq’s 30 September Disarmament Date and the Limits of State Authority

Posted at 22:18h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The 30 September deadline has been redefined from an enforcement date into the starting point of a negotiation. National Security Adviser Qasim al-Araji's statements of 23 August and 6 September indicate the government will probably not attempt compulsory disarmament on 1 October. Compliance so far has come...

01 Sep The Chokepoint that Stays Closed – The Houthi Blockade of Saudi Arabia and the Limits of a Hormuz Settlement

Posted at 23:47h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The Houthi campaign has outgrown the maritime blockade the group declared on 20 July. The 5 August strike on a Saudi tanker off Yanbu, on a domestic coastal run far north of the declared zone, indicates that rerouting away from the Bab al-Mandeb is almost...

01 Sep US Scales Back Joint Military Exercises with South Korea

Posted at 23:09h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The United States' decision to substantially reduce its annual Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise with South Korea, followed by the cancellation of a separate major amphibious exercise, has increased uncertainty surrounding the reliability and future direction of the US-South Korea security alliance. UFS was...

14 Aug Ukraine’s Increasingly Offensive Military Posture and the Evolution of the Russia – Ukraine War

Posted at 21:55h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Ukraine has increasingly shifted from a predominantly defensive strategy towards a more offensive operational posture, expanding long-range strikes against Russian military infrastructure, logistics and critical national assets. The evolution reflects Kyiv's assessment that degrading Russia's ability to sustain military operations is likely to generate greater...

03 Aug The Monaco Bombing: Targeted Threat in a Highly Secure Environment

Posted at 23:43h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The attack on Ukrainian-born businessman Vadym Yermolaiev demonstrates the limits, rather than the failure, of Monaco’s highly secure environment against a deliberately targeted operation. Its extensive security infrastructure and substantial police presence enabled rapid reconstruction of the attack but did not prevent the reported...

21 Jul Deadly Flooding and Landslides in the Philippines

Posted at 19:49h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The deaths of at least 26 people, with a further 14 missing, following flooding and landslides associated with Typhoon Inday (Bavi), have renewed scrutiny of the Philippines’ ability to protect vulnerable communities from recurrent extreme weather. Although Inday did not make landfall in the...

10 Jul The War the Peace Left Behind: Lebanon as the Unclosable Fron

Posted at 23:08h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The June 2026 settlement that wound down the wider Iran war has likely closed every theatre except Lebanon. The three overlapping frameworks produced that month, the 3 June Washington ceasefire, the 17 June Iran–US Islamabad Memorandum, and the 26 June trilateral framework signed...

07 Jul The Suwałki Corridor – NATO’s Most Vulnerable Chokepoint and the Implications for Eastern European Security

Posted at 22:42h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The Suwałki Corridor remains NATO's most strategically vulnerable land corridor, representing the only direct land link between mainland Alliance territory and the Baltic States. Russia's military presence in Kaliningrad, combined with Belarus' increasing military integration with Moscow, continues to shape NATO's deterrence posture...

29 Jun Anti-Immigration Disorder in Northern Ireland: The Belfast Riots and an Emerging Pattern of Mobilisation

Posted at 23:45h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements The Belfast riots indicate that anti-immigration disorder in Northern Ireland is becoming an increasingly repeatable pattern, with local violent incidents acting as catalysts rather than root causes. The absence of confirmed information regarding the attack's motive created an information vacuum that was rapidly exploited...