The ineffectiveness of joint UK/US airstrikes in Yemen
July 22, 2024 in Uncategorized
Since October of 2023, the Houthi militants in Yemen have sought to disrupt global shipping by way of missile attacks throughout the Red Sea region. The Houthi’s claim that their motive for this strategy is linked to defending the people of Gaza against Israel, however through some further analysis, the Houthis have been attempting to consolidate regional power against the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE for nearly a decade, further adding to their motivation to attack maritime shipping in the region. In response to this disruption, the US and the UK, along with support from Western nations such as Australia, Canada, Denmark, and the Netherlands, have launched missions named Operation Poseidon Archer and Operation Prosperity Guardian to ensure and maintain freedom of navigation in the region for commercial vessels. This operation has since led to joint airstrikes being conducted on Yemeni soil to degrade Houthi capabilities, starting from January 2024. This paper seeks to assess the effectiveness of these joint US/UK airstrikes to understand the best way to confront the Houthi threat and restore freedom of navigation in the region.
From January to May of 2024, the Houthis have reported 452 joint American and British airstrikes against its sites in Yemen, with this number reaching over 500 in recent months. These strikes have resulted in the death of 40, with many more injured, and have mainly been targeting Houthi drone sites, ballistic and cruise missile launchers, radars, airports, and underground facilities where Houthi equipment may be stored. Initial estimates in January after the first strikes were that 20-30% of Houthi offensive capabilities were damaged or destroyed, with Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, the director of the US military’s Joint Staff, claiming that they had successfully achieved their objective of damaging the Houthis’ capability to launch complex drone and missile attacks. Despite this claim, the Houthis have since gone on to conduct over 70 attacks on commercial and military vessels until July 2024, sinking two, including the Rubymar and the MV Tutor, and damaging many more, such as the 15 July strike on the Chios Lion crude oil tanker with a USV. The Houthis have also extended their threat range from the Red Sea to include the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The result of these attacks has been a 60% reduction in daily traffic in the Red Sea and Bab el Mandeb Strait, dropping from about 100 commercial ships per day pre-October 2023 to between 40-50 per day throughout 2024. Additionally insurance costs for commercial shipping have significantly increased in the wake of these attacks.
The result of this ongoing trade of missile strikes between Western forces and the Houthis has been a strategic victory for the Houthis. The objective for Operation’s Poseidon Archer and Prosperity Guardian was to secure and maintain freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, an objective which was entirely not achieved as evidenced by the increase in Houthi attacks. As for the Houthis, their objective has been regional power accumulation over the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as well as supporting the Iranian axis of resistance in Lebanon and Gaza, objectives which were certainly achieved. By successfully continuing to attack commercial ships, the Houthis are injecting uncertainty into global trade, strongly impacting those nations which benefit the most from trade, such as the Middle Eastern states trade of oil and liquified natural gas, however also the poorer nations in the region such as Yemen itself. Whilst being immediately successful in their objectives, the longer-term result of their degradation of commercial shipping has the potential to backfire onto the nations that are already suffering most, and which benefit the most from cheaper international trade, such as Somalia and Yemen. With millions of their populations already suffering from lack of clean water, access to food, and lack of health care and sanitation; all due to civil war, there is a likelihood that the Houthis would engage in political discussions to consolidate the advances made so far in their campaign.
As a result, it might be more effective for the Western nations in the region to engage politically and economically with the Houthis, rather than through military intervention. The Houthis are bringing in a constant supply of complex weapons systems via Iran, thus making it unlikely that the US or the UK will be able to indefinitely halt Houthi attacks in the region through military action alone. Through engaging in political discussions with both Iran and the Houthis, Western nations may be able to be more effective at halting the attacks on commercial shipping. This may be attractive to the Houthis due to their desire for regional strength, something which will be lacking if they induce a famine within their own population. Whilst Western nations might decide that a political solution is too risky, and that the Houthis cannot be trusted to negotiate with, it can be assessed with high certainty that the joint US/UK airstrikes in Yemen have been highly ineffective at limiting Houthi aggression in the Red Sea. It is highly likely that the continuation of military strikes by the US and the UK will continue to induce more aggression by the Houthis with further attacks on commercial shipping.
Hostage diplomacy of Russia
July 12, 2024 in UncategorizedKey Judgement:
- It is highly likely that Russia would continue taking foreigners from Western countries as hostage to be used as bargaining chips
- It is likely that targeted foreigners have Western countries citizenship with Russian citizenship or ethnic background.
- It is realistically possible that traveling to Belarus is also dangerous as Russia.
Hostage taking has been used by both state and non-state actors as a diplomatic tactic over the past few decades. However, most modern countries do not conduct such acts for several reasons. A few countries, such as Iran and North Korea, have been using Western hostages as a tactic to breach their international isolation. One reason these countries can and do conduct such acts is that their citizens do not need protection in foreign countries due to their political systems or international isolation. Consequently, hostage-taking by state actors is seen as an unusual act in the international community and is often viewed as a ‘rogue state’ action.
However, it seems that Russia has decided to follow its new ally – North Korea. There have been some cases of foreigners being arrested in Russia, but it was mostly due to Western foreigners who encountered problems because of a lack of understanding of Russian law enforcement’s intense practices. Since the Ukraine war, relations between Russia and the West have been deteriorating. As a result, Westerners in Russia have started to face consequences.
With Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich becoming the face of US-Russian relations, Russia is holding dozens of American citizens in jail. One of the early hostages was Brittney Griner, a WNBA star who was facing ten years in prison for bringing drugs into Russia. She was exchanged for Viktor Bout, a Russian arms dealer who was serving a term in a US prison. Since then, dozens of American citizens, some with Russian ethnic backgrounds or dual citizenship, have been detained. Because Russia presents itself as a lawful country, most arrests of Americans are under official prosecution. In most cases, Russian authorities use espionage charges against them, including Gershkovich. However, such prosecutions often do not proceed, resulting in detainees being held in legal limbo, allowing Russia to use them as bargaining chips against the United States.
There are cases where Russian authorities are not using espionage charges, such as Staff Sergeant Gordon Black, who was stationed in South Korea and travelled to Russia to meet his Russian girlfriend. He was arrested and accused of stealing from a woman. William Russel Nycum was accused of petty hooliganism and alcohol charges.
It is unclear how credible the Russian claims of espionage against US citizens are, considering US-Russian relations are at their worst since the Cold War, and there often are fabrications of evidence within Russian legal system. However, it is clear that Russian authorities are conducting systematic attacks on US citizens to pressure the US to stop its sanctions and support for Ukraine. The arrests coincide with US announcements of new sanctions or support for Ukraine, leading US authorities to believe these are targeted attacks on US citizens. The US Department of State has announced that US citizens should avoid travel to Russia due to security reasons.
Other major Western countries are also facing such dangers. One of the most notable cases is Laurent Vinatier, who works for a Swiss conflict mediation NGO. He was charged under Moscow’s “foreign agents” law amid escalating tensions between Russia and France over the Ukraine conflict. With Russian influence increasing in Africa, aiming to take over France’s original dominance, French President Emmanuel Macron has been reacting to the Russian threat strongly. Because the arrest was made right after he announced that France could send military trainers to Ukraine, it is highly likely that the espionage charge against Vinatier is false.
A similar situation happened to South Korea; a country drawn into the conflict as Russia sought help from North Korea. Although relations between the two countries had been positive, recent developments of North Korean support for the Ukraine war and economic support from Russia have deteriorated the relationship between South Korea and Russia. Russia has arrested one South Korean citizen, a preacher of a church in Vladivostok and an activist who helps North Korean defectors escape from North Korea. Like Gershkovich, he was accused of espionage by the FSB and is being held in Lefortovo prison, the same prison where Gershkovich is held.
The scope and scale of such hostage diplomacy are unclear at this point. It is also unclear how many espionage cases are true. However, it is evident that Russian authorities have abandoned their relatively friendly attitude towards foreigners. The practice that began with the World Cup and Olympics has ended, and foreigners in Russia face threats according to the ever-changing relationship between Russia and their home countries. It is also clear such arrest are synchronized with diplomatic incident.
One reason such a crackdown is possible is that Russian authorities still use the Soviet system that registers all foreigners’ domestic movements. Every person in Russia, including both foreigners and Russians, must register wherever they are living or staying. Establishments such as hotels must provide this information to authorities, allowing them to track every movement of every person in Russia. With the unregulated power of the Russian police and other security services, crackdowns against foreigners can be very easy and effective.
For these reasons, traveling to Russia without diplomatic immunity is highly dangerous. Individuals can face multiple years in Russian prison or damage the diplomatic stance of their home country. Without proper reason, traveling, living and studying in Russia must be avoided, unless the individual has Chinese, Iranian, North Korean and Belarusian citizenship. It is realistically possible that similar threat can exist also in Belarus, but crackdown against foreigners in such scale is not yet observed.
A Dangerous Escalation: Tensions Between Israel and Lebanon Raise Fears of Wider Conflict
July 5, 2024 in UncategorizedAmidst the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been overshadowed. Prime Minister Netanyahu said on Sunday that the intense phase of the war in Gaza with Hamas is about to end which has two potential outcomes, either Israel moves its resources to the Hezbollah front or less likely is getting ready for a ceasefire in Gaza which is one of the preconditions to de-escalate tensions with Hezbollah.
Recent times have seen an increase in Hezbollah’s attacks and counterattacks against Israel, casting uncertainty over the region’s future. International organizations such as the United Nations, as well as Western governments like Germany, France and the United States have made efforts to de-escalate the situation and prevent a full-scale war. However, there are big gaps in the negotiation talks and now Israeli military officials are speaking more loudly and open about war.
In a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, former Israeli Defence Minister and IDF Chief of Staff MK Benny Gantz said that the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution to cross-border violence is decreasing, making conflict more probable. On the other hand, neighbouring nations like Iran have backed Lebanon and issued stark warnings to Israel, threatening annihilation should they launch a full-scale attack. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nazala in his latest message said that in case of war his army would fight without restraints and without rules
Additionally, Iran-aligned Iraqi militias have declared a state of high alert, expressing their readiness to join Hezbollah in any conflict and threatening to target U.S. interests should Washington side with Israel. Moreover, Hezbollah’s warning against Cyprus should it support Israel in an attack on Lebanon by providing their airports intensified the situation as it threated an EU member state.
Hezbollah’s attacks on southern Israeli towns have significantly heightened tensions, with rocket sirens blaring and incoming missiles causing alarm. A drone fired from Lebanese Hezbollah injured 18 Israeli soldiers, one of the highest single casualty incidents since his below opened fire on October 8th. This strategic tactic by Hezbollah which aims to inflict distress on the Israeli population situated in Northern Israel with more than 60,000 Israelis evacuating their homes, has caused Israel to reevaluate its strategy. This strategic tactic by Hezbollah which is looking at imposing pain on the Israeli population situated in Northern Israel with more than 60,000 Israelis evacuating their homes, making Israels Northen region unstable and unsafe Hezbollah is steadily making the region uninhabitable. This tactic is prompting Israel to reconsider its strategy in order to avert further conflict. On the other side of the boarder, 90,000 Lebanese have also packed up and moved north far from the fires.
In response to the escalating tensions, the Israeli army has started deploying troops near the Lebanon border as part of military exercises simulating a potential conflict. Footage released by the army showcases the exercises, which aim to prepare for a possible full-scale war with Hezbollah. The Golani Brigade’s 12th Brigade has conducted drills simulating combat in complex terrain, according to a military statement. The 55th Reserve Paratroopers Brigade has also performed a series of exercises encompassing various combat scenarios, including manoeuvres in challenging terrains and advancing along mountainous routes demonstrating their commitment to preparedness in the face of escalating tensions.
Meanwhile, Lebanon has also been preparing for potential conflict. Saudi Arabia made a $10 million financial contribution to Lebanon on Tuesday, July 2, through the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre. Furthermore, Qatar has provided the Lebanese army with a new $20 million tranche of financial aid, demonstrating its sustained support for the military institution in the face of present circumstances.
Hezbollah which was once seen as a poorly sourced militant group that could carry out occasional bombings and small hit and run attacks now holds capabilities associated with professional state militaries. Its fighting force now includes around 100,000 soldiers most of whom are battle hardened from Syria. It also possesses a stockpile of rockets and ballistic missiles as well as anti-air, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles which pose a genuine strategic threat to Israel such as the Fajr-5 which has a range of 75km, the Khaibar with a range of 100km and the Zelzal-1/2 with a range of 210km which can hit targets as far as Tel Aviv.
As tensions continue to escalate between Israel and Hezbollah, both sides are preparing for potential conflict while the international community watches with growing concern. The possibility of a war like the one seen in 2006 looms large, but Israel has warned that this time the consequences could be far more severe. The situation is further complicated the involvement of other Arab nations, who have expressed support for Lebanon, potentially widening the scope of conflict and adding more parties to the fray. A full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel would be terrible for both, as seen by 8 months of convectional fighting in Gaza.
In addition, like Hamas, Hezbollah also has tunnel networks that run underground across Lebanon which are believed to be even more extensive than the ones used by Hamas.
In summary, the escalating tension is rapidly pushing towards all-out war, deteriorating security in the region. This escalation threatens to cause significant casualties and economic damage to both states, far outweighing any potential benefits of war. So far Israel and Hezbollah have kept the escalations within the current framework and have used the UN force in Lebanon as backdoor channel for dialogue, however, it is unclear how long this will continue.
Analysis on the German Far Right Party
June 28, 2024 in UncategorizedThe Allianz für Deutschland (AfD) is a right-wing German political party which has been hit with numerous serious accusations and scandals over the last few months in the run up to the German general elections. These scandals have included accusations of one of the party’s members conducting espionage for the Chinese intelligence services, the AfD having pro-Russian ties and that the party is a suspected extremist group. Yet despite all these scandals and accusations, shockingly, the AfD has done surprisingly well in the election polls this year. As of June 2024, the party beat Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats party, placing the AfD second in the polls with 15.9% of the vote and securing 96 seats in Parliament. The conservative alliance of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian won the elections in Germany, winning with 30% of the vote. How has the AfD managed to perform so well in the elections despite facing serious allegations and accusations? How concerning is this situation for German Intelligence and just how much of a security risk is the AfD? This analytical paper seeks analyse these questions and also seeks to explore the major scandals which have occurred against the AfD in the run up to the elections.
Since 2021, the BnV has labelled the AfD as a “suspected” extremist right wing group, with individual state associations and the party’s youth organisation designated as confirmed right wing extremist by the BNV. The BnV stated that the party had become a “case of interest” due to the AfD becoming increasingly radicalised in its views since its founding in 2013, specifically advocating anti-immigration and anti-Islam viewpoints. In 2017, AfD co-leader Alexander Gauland stated that after winning its first parliamentary seats, the AfD “vowed to fight an invasion of foreigners” after Germany accepted tens of thousands of migrants into the country. The AfD’s far right extremist views can also be exemplified by the fact that the party’s leader in the eastern state of Thuringia, Björn Höcke once described Berlin’s Holocaust memorial as a “monument of shame” and also called for a “180-degree turnaround” in Germany’s handling of is Nazi past. One of the party’s former leaders, Frauke Petry also commented that German police should “if necessary” shoot at migrants seeking to enter the country illegally. All these statements collectively show that the party has deeply rooted far right extremist views and rightfully justifies the BnV’s decision to classify the party as a suspected extremist group and put the party under surveillance. In 2022, the AfD was described as “suspected threat to democracy” after judges in Cologne stated that the party had not distanced itself from its most extreme members who are a part of the AfD’s hardline ‘Wing” faction led by Björn Höcke. The court ruled that that these members within the AfD still had “significant influence” in the party as they believed that the “German people should be kept ethnically intact and ‘outsiders’ should be excluded as far as possible”. The court ruled that these beliefs went against the basic law in Germany’s constitution.
The BnV sees far right extremist political parties as a threat to Germany due to the fact that they have “set themselves the goal of securing votes in local, state, federal and European elections… to gain influence in parliaments”. The AfD has certainly met this criteria as its goal is to promote its far right views and gain as much parliamentary seats and influence as possible. The fact that a suspected extremist party is looking to gain as much political influence as possible in the country firmly highlights that the AfD is a security risk for Germany and her intelligence agencies. In its run up to the elections, the AfD was hit by numerous scandals. One of the biggest occurred in November 2022 when the AfD had a secret meeting with Austrian right-wing extremists in which they discussed plans to deport millions of immigrants from Germany if the AfD were to be elected. During the meeting, the discussion centred around the far right concept remigration, with an Austrian right wing extremist suggesting that people should be deported an area of North Africa, to a “model state” that could accommodate up to two million people. News of the meeting broke out to the German press, inciting 200,000 people across the country to conduct mass protests against the AfD. The leak of the meeting also generated discussions which discussed the potential banning of the AfD. Other scandals occurred in the run up to the elections as well. For example, in April 2024, Jain G, an assistant to Maximilian Krah, who was the AFD’s top candidate at the time in the European elections was arrested on the suspicion of being an “employee of a Chinese secret service” and passing on information about the European Parliament to Chinese intelligence. Jain G was also accused of spying on Chinese opposition figures in Germany. On top of these damaging espionage allegations, Petr Bystron a top AfD candidate for the elections also faced accusations that he had received payments from Artem Marchevsky, who ran now debunked online Russian disinformation network portal known as the ‘Voice of Europe’ in return for spreading Russian propaganda. According to the Czech Security and Information Service (BIS), Mr Bystron met with Artem Marchevsky at least three times and can be heard in BIS audio tapes to be rusting and counting €20,000 (£17,000) which was given to him by Marchevsky. Bystron vigorously denied these claims prompting an investigation.
Another AfD scandal occurred when Maximilian Krah, was questioned by the FBI in March 2024 over suspicions of taking money from Kremlin agent to which he denied. The combination of the Chinese espionage scandal and the investigations of Krah and Bystron highlights that the AfD on top of being a suspected extremist political party also has alleged ties to both Russia and China, thus making the party an ever worrying security threat and concern for German Intelligence officials. Despite all these scandals that have cropped up for the AfD they have come second in the election polls. This should be concerning for German intelligence officials as the party will no doubt continue to rally for support and influence promoting its radical and extremist views in the near future. The scandals that have surrounded the AfD show that the party continues to be a grave security risk to Germany because they harbour extreme right wing views, have done unexpectedly well in the elections and have alleged ties to Russia and China. German Intelligence must continue to monitor the party even more closely both now and in the future in light of the numerous serious accusations that have reared their ugly head for the party.
Whilst the scandals against the AfD were seen by many at the time as very damaging to the party, the AfD has managed to use these scandals to gather more support in areas in which the party is the strongest in Germany, which is why they have done surprisingly well in the polls. The AfD’s performance in Germany’s elections shows that no matter the scale of the allegations and scandals, they can be spun around and vigorously denied and defended to secure as many votes as possible from those who find themselves the most aligned with the AfD’s policies. Scandals can make or break a party and for the AfD, the scandals have worked in their favour as evidenced by their second place position in the German election results.
Islamic State’s threat in Iraq
June 25, 2024 in UncategorizedIslamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a Sunni Islamic jihadist group, rose from the ashes of Al-Qaeda in 2014, establishing a ‘caliphate’ in northern Iraq and Syria. In 2017, a US-led anti-terrorism coalition declared victory over ISIS, expelling them from their lands in northern Iraq. Following the withdrawal of US troops from the region in 2021, and even more since the escalation of conflict between Israel and Hamas in 2023, however, ISIS have been conducting an increasing number of attacks throughout the region, leading to more destabilised security conditions. This paper aims to analyse ISIS activities in 2024 to assess the likely threat they pose in the region over the next several months, as well as Iraq’s decision making in this regard.
The month of March 2024 saw ISIS’ most active month in terms of quantity of attacks since 2017 levels, conducting at least 69 attacks in central Syria in just that month. These attacks have resulted in the deaths of at least 84 Syrian soldiers and 44 civilians, which is more than double the confirmed operations ISIS have conducted in 2024. As well as these attacks in Syria, ISIS have been conducting operations in Iraq, with a recent attack on May 13th, 2024, in the Salahuddin province resulting in the death of one Iraqi officer and four soldiers. These increasing levels of attacks in the last 6 months, as well as severity of the attacks, as demonstrated by ISIS-K in the Moscow concert hall shooting on March 22nd, 2024, which saw the death of 145 civilians and at least 500 more injured, as well as the bombing in Iran on January 3rd, 2024, which resulted in the deaths of 103 people and injured 284 others, indicate the increasingly severe threat posed by Islamic State.
This increase in attacks occurs as the Iraqi and US political leadership are discussing the withdrawal of US military personnel and the end of the international coalition which resulted in the defeat of ISIS in 2017. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s office stated in January of 2024 that “Military experts will oversee ending the military mission of the Global Coalition against Daesh [ISIL], a decade after its initiation and after its successful achievement of its mission in partnership with Iraqi security and military forces”. There are two crucial reasons behind this decision, the first being the increasing capabilities of the Iraqi military and security forces since 2017. Iraq has been prioritising the strengthening of its defence capabilities, primarily through the means of acquiring modernised aircraft for air superiority. In 2023, Iraq finalised a $3.2 billion contract with Dassault Aviation to purchase 14 Rafale aircraft, a French, twin-jet combat aircraft with both long- and short-range capabilities, high-accuracy strikes, and reconnaissance. This modernisation of the Iraqi forces comes as a direct result of the possible resurgence of ISIS in Iraq, and thus the talks to end the coalition indicate Iraq’s preparedness for military dominance over ISIS. There are currently 2,500 US troops present in Iraq as part of the coalition against ISIS. If these troops are to leave, there is a worrying potential for a similar power vacuum left in Afghanistan in 2021, providing ISIS with the opportunity to regain territory.
The second crucial reason is due to the activity in Iraq as a result of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Since October of 2023, Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria have targeted US troops over 170 times. The 2,500 troops have been targeted at Al-Asad air base numerous times, as well as in Jordan, where an attack in February of 2024 resulted in the death of three American soldiers. The US retaliation for the attack in Jordan was a series of strikes on over 85 targets throughout Iraq and Syria, resulting in the deaths of 16 people, including civilians, and over 25 injured. Even in 2020, US forces conducted an air strike outside Baghdad airport which killed the Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani, as well as Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. Iraq has complained that these US attacks violate Iraq’s sovereignty, and thus is a further reason for the discussions of the removal of US troops. ISIS, however, have taken credit for the decision to begin the removal of US troops as a consequence of their force, and have promised to continue its attacks.
ISIS in 2024 has demonstrated its capabilities to execute complex attacks on an international scale, and therefore almost certainly poses a significant threat to regional security in Iraq in the short-term future. This is compounded with the intention to withdraw US forces from the region, leaving behind a significant power vacuum in Iraq’s security apparatus, providing ISIS with opportunity to engage with their intentions of re-establishing power. We assess with high confidence that ISIS will continue to attack US and Iraqi forces at a high rate over the next 6 months.
Iraq, however, has been investing in the modernisation of its equipment, with a priority on aircraft, and as such is certain to have military dominance over ISIS, in contrast to in 2014 when Iraq’s security structure was highly ineffective. We therefore assess with moderate confidence that Iraq has the capabilities, the training, and the experience, to effectively combat ISIS’ attempts to regain land in Iraq. This was recently demonstrated on the 22nd of June 2024, by an announcement by the Iraqi Special Operations Forces (ISOF) regarding a successful joint operation with the Iraqi National Intelligence Service against an ISIS cell in the city of Tuz Khurmato in northern Iraq. The operation resulted in the death of at least 7 militants, including the leader of the cell. The ISOF stated that F-16 aircraft carried out strikes that destroyed tunnel systems and hideouts, resulting in the death of all the cell’s militants.
