MS Risk Blog

Al-Shabaab Turns To A More Regional Focus

One month after Somalia’s al-Shabaab militants stormed Kenya’s Westgate shopping centre, killing sixty-seven people during a four-day siege, the threat from the militant group, and local sympathizers, remains high as officials in Somalia and in the African Union (AU) look towards increasing troop numbers in a bid to completely destroy a group which has transformed itself into a regional threat.

Posters reading “if you haven’t learnt the lesson Westgate, more is coming,” which were posted up last week during rallies held in the southern Somali port of Barawe, an al-Shabaab stronghold, confirm what is already going on throughout the country.  Over the past number of months, al-Shabaab has significantly increased its attacks, both within Somalia and near the border regions with Kenya and Ethiopia, both countries which have deployed troops to Somalia in order to combat the militant group.  While these attacks will not stop any time soon, recent remarks made by commanders within the group have indicated that al-Shabaab may increasingly place pressure on those states that have deployed troops in Somalia in a bid to force their withdrawal.

While over the past two years, AMISOM forces throughout Somalia have dislodged al-Shabaab from a number of its strongholds, including from the capital city of Mogadishu and the surrounding regions, as well as from the southern port city of Kismayo, the militant group has continued to carry out assassinations of politicians and journalists along with a number of suicide bombings that have targeted troops and security officials.  While most of the groups‘ previous attacks have typically been small in scale, al-Shabaab has carried out large scale attacks in Somalia and in the region, such as the June 2013 attack on a UN compound in Mogadishu or the 2010 bombings in Kampala which killed seventy-six people.  However this more recent attack on the Nairobi mall has demonstrated a significant and worrying step up in al-Shabaab’s operations, with the group now seemingly increasingly concentrating on attacks that require longer periods of planning and surveillance.  Uganda’s announcement last week that it had increased its security level in the capital city of Kampala, after officials from the US Embassy indicated that they had credible information of a possible terror attack linked to al-Shabaab, also signified that the terrorist group may now increasingly focus on targeting regional interests, especially in those countries which have deployed troops to battle the militant group in Somalia. This recent move may also signify that al-Shabaab is turning its focus from Somalia’s internal politics to a more global agenda, similar to al-Qaeda, which the group is aligned with.

The battle to defeat al-Shabaab will now likely have to concentrate not only within Somalia, but also throughout the wider region, including in the countries that have deployed their armies in Somalia, such as Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda.  While the AU force in Somalia has requested that its size be increased by a quarter, which will amount to 23,000 troops, preventing al-Shabaab from attaining territorial gains within Somalia will not eliminate the group entirely.  A UN report recently indicated that “al-Shabaab continues to pose a regional and international threat through its affiliates,” noting that as AU troops have seized more territory throughout Somalia, there has been an “increasing exodus” of foreign fighters, some of whom left “with the intention of supporting jihad in the region.”  Last week’s announcement that a Norwegian citizen of Somali origin, 23-year-old Hassan Abdi Dhuhulow, was suspected of being one of the attackers in the Westgate incident confirmed what United Nations experts have already noted.  That dozens, if not hundreds, of young men from countries across the Horn of Africa travel to Somalia in order to train with al-Shabaab militants.  In turn, it remains unknown whether the Westgate attackers were sent specifically from Somalia, or whether they were a “homegrown” team recruited within Kenya.  Consequently increasingly focusing on fighters coming from Western or Arab nations, along with local sympathizers and groups aligned with al-Shabaab across eastern Africa, will be a necessary step in fighting the militant group.

Libyan Man Accused of Links to al-Qaeda Appears in Public for First Time Since Being Captured Ten Days Ago

Party Calls for Nationwide Protests in Tunisia

Tunisia’s opposition alliance, the National Salvation Front (NSF) has called for country wide protests in all regions, and particularly in the capital, Tunis, on 23 October. The opposition believes that the Ennahda party is wilfully delaying the formation of a new government, and purposefully stalling negotiations.

On 5 October, the Ennahda party agreed to a political roadmap which would work toward the creation of a new caretaker government within three weeks. The roadmap includes the creation and passing of a new constitution and electoral laws, and a timetable for parliamentary and presidential elections. The transition date had been set for Sunday, 26 October.

However, on 6 October, Ennahda issued a statement calling for “the continuation of the current government until the completion of the constitutional tasks of the Assembly.” This statement directly contradicts the roadmap.

Prime Minister Ali Laarayedh has demanded four conditions be met before the current government is dissolved: the ratification of Tunisia’s new constitution, the reform of election oversight committees, the publication of new election procedures, and a clear date to be set for and parliamentary elections.

The Prime Minister insists that these demands are to ensure that the transition possible is smooth and free of political vacuum. To this end, the date of resignation of the current government was left open by Laarayedh, who said, “There is not a definitive time yet for the resignation of the current government.”

The NSF has accused the Ennahda party of attempting to buy time and failing to live up to their commitment. In response, Laarayedh said the problem with the transition is not the resignation of the government, but the need to maintain administrative continuity and “creating a solid foundation for a democratic environment.”

Complicating Tunisia’s political crisis is a security battle, particularly against armed Islamic extremist movements. The hard-core Salafist group, Ansar Al-Sharia, has been accused of carrying out the murder of Mohamed Brahmi, a left-wing MP, in July. The assassination put political progress at a standstill and deepened the political crisis.

Further, on 16 October, two Tunisian National Guard barracks on the border with Algeria were attacked by terrorist groups. The barracks are part of an advanced border monitoring system. While there have been no reports of casualties among the guards, the areas where the attacks were conducted are some of the most critical in the anti-terrorism system set up between Tunisia and Algeria.

Opposition leaders accuse Ennahda of failing to develop plans to ensure the safety of Tunisians. Laarayedh said that the situation was complex, and that part of the problem was the weakened government in neighbouring Libya, which has failed to mitigate smuggling and illegal weapons trade. The prime minister denied the existence of any accurate information on the quantity of weapons trafficked into Tunisia from Libya.

The scheduled date of the protests, October 23^rd marks the two year anniversary of the election of the National Constitution Assembly. The opposition party has also accused Ennahda of mismanaging the economy and failing to improve living standards; these were the initial causes of the uprising in Tunisia in 2010-2011.

Afghanistan Governor Assassinated During Speech

Yesterday, October 15^th, the governor of Afghanistan’s strategically crucial Logar province was assassinated as he was due to make a speech marking the holiday of Eid al-Adha. This killing is one of few major assassinations of prominent government officials this year; however it highlights the continued goal of insurgents in Afghanistan to deprive the coalition-backed government of competent officials in light of coming elections and the withdrawal of ISAF forces in 2014.

Governor Arsallah Jamal was preparing to give a speech at a mosque in Logar province, when a bomb apparently planted inside the microphone he was due to use was detonated, killing him instantly. At least 15 others were injured, 8 of whom remain in a critical condition. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, however a faction of the Taliban insurgency is almost certainly responsible.

Though Arsallah Jamal had only been appointed as governor of Logar in April, he had previously served as governor of the province of Khost, which shares a border with Pakistan’s tribal region of Waziristan. He was an expert in rural development, and had worked for numerous NGOs, most recently in Canada. He was a close friend of President Hamid Karzai, and managed his 2009 election campaign. Arsallah Jamal had also survived assassination attempts in the past.

The attack took place in Logar’s provincial capital, Pul-e-Alam, a mere 37 miles south of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul.  Logar is a strategically vital province sometimes referred to as the “gate to Kabul”, lying as it does directly to the south and controlling many of the major road approaches to the capital. Insurgents have stepped up their campaign in the province this year, which has seen violence skyrocket and large swathes of Logar fall under Taliban control. Taliban control of Logar would make it far easier for them to launch attacks in Kabul.

Logar province is also the location of the world’s second biggest copper mine, Aynak, the mining rights to which were awarded to a Chinese firm in 2009. Getting the mine up and running was one of Jamal’s major priorities, and may have contributed to his death. Alternatively, Jamal also made the news recently when he revealed that the US military had recently arrested Latif Mehsud, a senior commander in the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), something else that may have made him a target.

Insurgents in Afghanistan have also waged a long running campaign targeting government officials, in hopes of reducing the ability of Hamid Karzai’s government to function. Over 1000 mid-level officials have been assassinated in the past ten years, while several high profile officials, including numerous provincial governors, have also been murdered. With the state bureaucracy and military of Afghanistan weak, the removal of competent officials, leaders and managers could have serious long-term implications on the sustainability of state institutions. Leadership of provincial governors is also regarded as a key factor in delivering next year’s presidential election.

Four Hostages Released in Syria However Fate of Remaining Three Remains Unknown

On Monday, one day after six Red Cross workers were kidnapped in northwestern Syria, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) announced that three of the six Red Cross Members, along with a Syrian Red Crescent volunteer were “released safe and sound” in Syria. While it is known that the four aid workers were released in Idlib province, near the Turkish border, the circumstances under which they were released have not been made public.  The humanitarian organization added that it was waiting on information relating to the three remaining workers.  While Syrian state television blamed, what it called, armed terrorists, which is a term that has been frequently used to describe anti-government rebels, It remains unclear who is responsible for the kidnappings however hardline Islamist rebels are known to operate in the area and may be responsible for this latest incident.

The news of the release of the four hostages comes at a time when Syrian rebels have been urged to agree to a local ceasefire in order to allow access to international inspectors, who are working to locate and destroy the government’s chemical weapons arsenal.

On Sunday, gunmen abducted six Red Cross workers along with a local volunteer of the Syrian Arab Red Crescent near Saraqeb, in Idlib province, in northwestern Syria.  The team had been on their way back to Damascus after delivering medical supplies in Sarmin and Idlib.  The news of the kidnapping was confirmed by officials at the ICRC.  ICRC spokesman Ewan Watson stated that “we are calling for the immediate and unconditional release of this team which was delivering humanitarian assistance to those in need – and we do that on both sides of the front lines.”  The humanitarian agency also indicated that it had no contact with the unidentified gunmen but it was appealing for the seven to be freed immediately.  The nationalities and gender of the ICRC staff has not been revealed however it is believed that the group includes both local and international staff in which most are thought to be medical specialists.

Syrian state media had reported the kidnapping earlier that day, stating that gunmen had kidnapped the Red Cross workers after they opened fire on their vehicles.  Quoting an unnamed official, state news agency SANA indicated that the workers were travelling in the Idlib area when gunmen blocked their path, shot at the convoy, seized them and took them to an undisclosed location.  Although the ICRC spokesman was not able to confirm whether or not shots had been fired during the kidnapping, the ICRC has indicated that the team’s vehicles were missing.

Kidnappings, especially of aid workers and journalists, have become increasingly common in northern Syria.  In August of this year, the ICRC indicated that the number of Syrian Arab Red Crescent volunteers who had lost their lives since the start of the conflict had risen to twenty-two.  Although the rebels have captured a number of regions in the north, government forces continue to have some degree of control over the many urban centers that are located in the region.  This has resulted in fighting which typically occurs on a daily basis.  The conflict, which has been ongoing for two-and-a-half years, has claimed more than 100,000 lives and has driven more than 2.1 million citizens out of the country.