MS Risk Blog

Senior Haqqani Network Leader Killed in Pakistan

Two days ago, on Monday November 11^th, Nasiruddin Haqqani, a senior member of the leadership of the Haqqani network was assassinated in Islamabad. The exact circumstances of his death, perpetrators of the attack and the subsequent removal of his body back to Waziristan remain mysterious. The Haqqani network, while based in Pakistan, is one of the major factions (and most capable) of the Afghani Taliban fighting ISAF forces in Afghanistan. The killing comes at a sensitive time for Pakistan – the leader of the Pakistani Taliban (or TTP) Hakimullah Mehsud was killed earlier this month in a drone strike, and the nascent peace process in the country appears to be on hold for the foreseeable future.

Nasiruddin Haqqani was the son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, the group’s founder and a noted commander in the anti-Soviet fighting of the 1980s. His brother, Sirajuddin, is the day-to-day operational commander of the group. Nasiruddin’s primary responsibility appears to have been as the group’s financier, responsible for business ventures, outreach and fundraising abroad. This reportedly included numerous trips to the Middle East and the Gulf region in recent years.

Nasiruddin was returning home from a mosque through the district of Baru Kahu suburb of Islamabad when multiple gunmen on motorcycles shot him, also killing an innocent bystander. Local authorities originally denied that Nasiruddin had been killed, or was even present, as his body was spirited six hours away, and past numerous military checkpoints, to Waziristan.

Pakistan has long been accused of supporting the Haqqani network, something that would explain why such a senior leader could apparently live unmolested in Islamabad for several years. While the TTP aim to overthrow the Pakistani state, the Afghani Taliban retain close connections with the Pakistani security forces, who use them counter Indian influence in Afghanistan. The Haqqani network in particular has been labelled in the past as being veritable arms of the Pakistani military intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI). The Haqqani Network is considered the most dangerous of the Afghani Taliban factions, and has been responsible for numerous high profile attacks in Kabul in recent years.

The killing comes at a particular problematic time for Pakistan’s security situation. Nasiruddin was reportedly involved in facilitating dialogue and potential peace talks between the TTP and the Pakistani government. These talks were apparently on the verge of beginning when the TTP leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, was killed in a US drone strike. At first, it appeared that Khan Said Sajna, a powerful subordinate in favour of peace talks, would ascend to the leadership with reports even confirming he had been appointed. However, another leader, Mullah Fazlullah eventually emerged as the TTP’s new leader. Fazlullah reportedly rejects peace talks with the Pakistani state, and his appointment has likely crushed any serious chance of dialogue for the foreseeable future.

Security forces across Pakistan are on alert, with the possibility of revenge attacks in the country extremely high. Several Taliban fighters were killed in a shootout with police in Karachi today. The Ashura gatherings, an important part of the Shia Muslim religious calendar, begin on the 15^th of November. With Shia Muslims a common target of terrorist attacks, this period is usually a tense time for Pakistan that sees thousands of troops deployed to ensure order, with the threat of violence even higher this year due to recent events.

Global Piracy Report

SOMALIA

At Sea

Just weeks after Operation Commander of the EU Naval Force, Rear Admiral Bob Tarrant, issued a warning about the ongoing threat from piracy, there have been two more piracy-related incidents that have occurred off the coat of Somalia.  The first incident occurred on 5 November, when EU Naval Force German frigate, FGS Niedersachsen prevented ten suspected pirates from getting far out to sea.  During a piracy patrol, the FGS Niedersachsen located two small vessels, a whaler towing a skiff, close to the Somali coast.  The warship’s crew members were able to observe that the whaler was carrying ten pirates along with over ten fuel barrels and two long ladders.  When the German frigate approached the whaler in order to carry out a further investigation, crew members observed the men dropping ladders into the sea before heading back towards the shoreline.  While the whaler made its approach towards the beach, approximately eighty people were seen on land, with some wading out in order to assist the pirates in bring the boats back onto the beach.  The German frigate continues to monitor the beach, which quickly became deserted after the incident.  The second incident occurred on 6 November when a merchant ship, located 460 miles south-east of Mogadishu, had to repel an attack from five armed pirates.  A Hong Kong-flagged chemical tanker, enroute from Saudi Arabia to Mozambique, was fired upon by five pirates in a fast-moving skiff.  The private armed security team on board the vessel was able to repel the attack.  Naval forces immediately closed the sea area in an attempt to locate the suspects.  In light of these two incidents, Rear Admiral Bob Tarrant has stated that “it is clear that Somali pirates still have the intent and capability to get out to sea to attack ships and take crews for ransom.  These attacks not only cause misery to ships‘ crews and their families, they also generate instability in world trade and humanitarian aid routes.  Naval counter piracy forces and the maritime shipping industry must remain vigilant so that these pirates do not succeed.”

Hijacks

• None reported during this period.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

• 9 November 2013 – A merchant vessel was attacked in position 07:20S – 048:37E, approximately 278 nautical miles north of Madagascar at 1400 UTC.  Merchant vessels are advised to proceed with caution when traversing the area.
• 6 November 2013 – Hong Kong-flagged product tanker, Zhongji No. 1, reported being attacked at 0330 UTC in position 05:31S – 047:07E, approximately 400 nautical miles north of Madagascar.  One skiff had five pirates on board, with ladders signed.  Suspected pirates were also heavily armed.  The alarm on board the tanker was raised, crew members alerted, fire pumps started, speed increased, evasive maneuvers made, SSAS alert activated and authorities informed.  The pirates fired at the tanker and the armed security team on board returned fire.  The skiff later aborted the attack and moved away.  The vessel and crew members are reported safe.
• 2 November 2013 (Late Report) – India-flagged oil tanker, Desh Mahima, reported being approached by three suspicious skiffs travelling at a high speed at 1614 UTC in position 14:34N – 042:10E, heading 330 deg 12 knots.  Six pirates on board each skiff were sighted along with ladders.  The Master of the vessel order increase of speed, activated the SSAS, mustered the crew members into the citadel, used evasive maneuvers and anti-piracy measures, including the firing of flares.  The resulted in the skiffs moving away from the vessel.
• 27 October 2013 (Late Report) – Bulk carrier was approached by two skiffs at 1120 UTC in position 13:15N – 043:01E, Gulf of Aden.  Skiffs were colored white and blue, with five to six pirates on board each skiff.  The skiffs closed to 100m.  Ladders, described as 10m long with hooks on one end, were sighted on board the skiffs.  Armed security team on board the vessel displayed their weapons, resulting in the skiffs moving away.  Vessel and crew members have been reported safe.

Suspicious Activity

• 8 November 2013 – Bahamas-flagged oil tanker reported two suspicious skiffs approached port side at fast speeds at 1115 UTC while in position 17:52.37N – 056:56.45E, approximately 30 nautical miles off the coast of Oman.  Armed security team on board the vessel stood to, showing their presence in front of the bridge as the vessel implemented security measures.  Skiffs continued to approach the tanker to around 200 meters.  A total of seven pirates were seen on board the skiffs, which closed to 100 meters.  However no weapons were observed onboard the skiffs.  Armed security team displayed their weapons, resulting in the skiffs moving towards the starboard side.  The skiffs later moved towards the stern and were monitored until out of range at 1145 UTC.

GULF OF GUINEA

At Sea

Hijacks

• None reported during this period.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

• None reported during this period.

 SOUTHEAST ASIA

At Sea

Hijacks

• 7 November 2013 – Ten pirates armed with guns and knives boarded and hijacked a Panama-flagged oil tanker, GPT 21, underway at 0330 LT in position 01:20.6N – 103:18.2E, around 7.3 nautical miles west of Pulau Kukup, Malaysia.  The pirates tied up all the crew members and held them hostage in one cabin.  They later ordered the Master to steer the ship to a pre-designated position.  Another unknown orange-hulled tanker came alongside and the pirates forced the C/O to use the cargo pumps, valves and mooring winches to transfer the oil into the unknown tanker.  At around 1600 LT, the pirates disembarked after transferring and stealing all the gas oil on board the GPT 21.  Prior to leaving, the pirates also stole the crew members personal belongings.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

• 4 November 2013 – Duty crew on board an anchored chemical tanker spotted two boats nearby at 1230 LT in position 03:54N – 098:46E, Belawan Anchorage, Indonesia.  Robbers attempted to board the tanker via anchor chain but alerted crew thwarted the boarding.  A second boat, which was hidden near the propeller, could not be chased away by crew members who were using the fire hoses.  The propeller was turned on, resulting in the robbers moving away.  The robbers were spotted with some stolen hull anodes in their boat.  Port Control was informed of the incident.
• 2 November 2013 (Late Report) – Fifteen armed robbers boarded an anchored Indian-flagged container ship, Jindal Tara, at 0330 LT in position 21:40N – 088:01E, Sagar Anchorage, India.  D/O noticed the robbers stealing the ship’s stores and raised the alarm.  Seeing the alerted crew, the robbers jumped overboard and escaped.
• 23 October 2013 (Late Report) – While at anchor, robbers boarded a Denmark-flagged chemical tanker, Torm Fox, at 0025 LT in position 07:06S – 112:40 E, Gresik Inner anchorage, Surabaya, Indonesia.  The roving patrol shouted at the robbers upon seeing them.  The forward horn was sounded and the crew members were informed about the robbers.  The robbers immediately escaped in a small boat.  An inspection was conducted in order to check for stowaways and damages.
• 22 October 2013 (Late Report) – While at anchor, robbers boarded a Thailand-flagged LPG tanker, Senna 3, at 1545 LT in position 22:49.80N – 070:06.30E, Kandla Port anchorage, India.  Robbers boarded the vessel from the starboard bow.  Upon discovering the robbers, the emergency alarm was raised and the crew members attempted to expel the robbers.  The robbers threatened the crew with a knife before escaping.  Cash and the ship’s spare parts were stolen.
• 21 October 2013 (Late Report) – While at anchor, robbers boarded a Singapore-flagged tun, Svitzer Kallang, at 0300 LT in position 01:22.73N – 104:42.24E, approximately 11.7 nautical miles northeast of Tanjung Berakit, Pulau Bintan, Indonesia.  Robbers were discovered by the Master in the mess room.  The robbers threatened him with an iron lance, later escaping with a laptop, portable welding machine, fire axe, generator spare parts and filters.  Following the incident, the Master raised the general alarm and the crew members conducted security patrols.  SPOCC initiated a broadcast to alert mariners.  The Police Coast Guard and Singapore Navy were informed of the incident.  
• 17 October 2013 (Late Report) – While underway, robbers from two small crafts boarded a Panama-flagged tug, Miclyn Opal, at 1320 UTC in position 01:13.79N – 104:04.62E, approximately 1.45 nautical miles North of Pulau Nongsa (Batam), Indonesia.  Robbers boarded astern of the barge that was being towed and stole the emergency towing wire.  The Singapore Navy was informed of the incident.
• 12 October 2013 (Late Report) – While underway, robbers boarded a Saint Barthelemy (France)-flagged barge carrier, Westsea 95, at 0235 LT in position 01:14N – 103:59E, Eastbound lane of Singapore Strait (TSS) while being towed by a tugboat on route to Lampung, Indonesia.  All crew members were mustered to the accommodation deck.  Master instructed the crew to lock the watertight door and entrance of the tug boat from inside.  The roving patrol shouted at the robbers.  After being noticed by the crew in the tugboat, the robbers escaped onboard a small boat and took with them a stern railing, emergency tow line and a Norwegian buoy.

Nigeria Extends Emergency Rule As Officials Look To Cameroon in Bid to Police Borders

Goodluck Jonathan’s request for an extension of the state of emergency has been granted by Nigerian lawmakers.

Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan requested earlier this week that lawmakers extend a state of emergency, which was initially declared in the northeastern region in May 2013.  On Thursday, that request was approved when senators unanimously backed Jonathan’s request and agreed “to extend the state of emergency in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe states on the same terms and conditions.”  As such, the emergency rule in the three northeastern states will be extended for a further six months as of 12 November 2013.

Earlier this week, the president had requested that lawmakers extend the state of emergency, citing that the Islamist insurgency had not yet been contained.  In a letter sent by the President to lawmakers in both chambers of Nigeria’s parliament, Jonathan stated that “we have achieved considerable successes in containing the activities of the terrorist elements….However, some security challenges still exist.”

In May of this year, the President enforced emergency measures in the northern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, regions of the country where he stated Boko Haram insurgents had seized territory, chased out local officials and effectively threatened Nigeria’s sovereignty.  On 15 May, one day after the state of emergency was imposed, Nigeria’s military announced the launch of a massive operation aimed at permanently ending the uprising.  Since then, mobile communications in the northern regions of Nigeria have been cut off, making it difficult to attain and confirm reports pertaining to ongoing attacks.  In turn, while thousands of additional troops and air power have since been deployed to the region, in a bid to curb attacks, the success of the military offensive remains uncertain.

Although the military has described Boko Haram as being in a state of disarray and on the defensive, the fact that hundreds of civilians have been killed by the terrorist group in recent weeks has cast doubts on these claims.  Furthermore, although the attacks appear to have partly shifted out of the major cities and into the more remote areas of the country, the number, scale and brutality of the attacks has remained unchanged.  In turn, the ongoing military operations have pushed Boko Haram militants further outward and away from their main stronghold of Maiduguri.  This has resulted in attacks spanning a wider region and has demonstrated the militant group’s capabilities in reorganization and resilience.  This has forced officials in Nigeria to look beyond its borders, a fact that was demonstrated this week when officials requested that Cameroon aid the Nigerian military in policing the shared border.  Many believe that the military operations have forced Boko Haram fightes into Nigeria’s north, towards the border with Niger and into the remote hills that border Cameroon.

While lawmakers swiftly approved Jonathan’s initial request for a state of emergency back in May, many officials believed that securing the extension would prove to be difficult.  While continuing massacres around Borno and Yobe may provided political justification for an extension, a bid to extend emergency rule in the state of Adamawa was seen as being “problematic,” as the area has seen far less violence than Borno and Yobe, and locals have been growing increasingly frustrated with the situation.

Blast kills One Outside Chinese Communist Party HQ in Shanxi

This morning, Wednesday November 6^th, a homemade bomb detonated outside the headquarters of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in Shanxi province, northern China, killing one person. The attack comes amidst tight security across China, with sensitive official meetings due later this week that may see radical overhauls to China’s economy, and in the wake of last week’s suicide attack in Tiananmen Square by Uighur Muslims.

At around 7:40 am, reports indicate seven homemade explosive devices detonated outside the provincial headquarters of the CCP in Taiyuan, capital of Shanxi province. One person was killed and 8 were injured, one critically. The devices were apparently planted in flower beds outside the building, and detonated as government workers began to arrive for the day. Images widely distributed on Chinese social media show metal pellets and ball bearings that were reportedly scattered across the area after the explosions. No individual or group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack.

The incident comes at a politically sensitive time for China. Top CCP leaders are due to meet on November 9^th for a three day session (the ‘Third Plenum’ of the new leadership) to outline China’s economic and political direction for the next decade. This is widely expected to include a raft of major social and economic reforms, aimed at promoting economic liberalisation, tackling corruption and providing social security with the goal of moving China towards more stable economic growth. Previous Third Plenums in 1978 and 1993 were the source of the most sweeping economic reforms in recent Chinese history.

Security across the country has also been stepped up following last week’s suicide attack in Tiananmen Square. In that incident, a car was driven into crowds of tourists before bursting into flames. The 3 occupants were killed along with a Japanese and Filipino tourist, while nearly 40 tourists and security personnel were injured. The attackers have been identified as Uighur Muslims, with the Chinese authorities calling it a terrorist attack and blaming the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, a Uighur terrorist group apparently with some loose connections to the Al Qaeda organisation. Uighurs are a large Muslim minority in China’s westernmost province of Xinjiang, and often complain of discrimination and repression. Terrorist attacks, riots and ethnic violence are not uncommon in the region, with Uighur extremists sometimes attacking targets outside Xinjiang as well.

However, homemade bombs and domestic terror attacks unrelated to the Uighur issue are a not entirely uncommon phenomenon in China. In 2009 two separate attacks on public transport systems by disgruntled citizens killed 26 and 24 people, while a man killed 47 people by setting alight a bus in Xiamen earlier this year. In September, a bomb exploded outside a school in Guilin, killing two and injuring more than 40. A disabled man was jailed last month for setting off a homemade bomb in Beijing airport in July. These incidents are often the result of disgruntled individuals who feel mistreated by the state bureaucracy, in issues ranging from criminal cases to land confiscations.

Tuareg Rebel Movements in Mali Announce Merger

Three Tuareg and Arab rebel movements announce their merger.  Meanwhile insecurity continues to destabilize the country with a new attack occurring in northern Mali.

On Monday 4 November 2013, three Tuareg and Arab rebel movements in northern Mali announced their merger to form a united front in peace talks with authorities in the Malian capital city Bamako.  According to reports, after several days of talks in Burkina Faso, which is the regional mediator for the conflict, representatives of the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) along with the Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) and the High Council for the Unity of Azawad (HCUA) adopted a “political platform,” a “negotiating committee,” and a joint “decision-making body.”  The three rebel movements further indicated that the decision to merge was “guided by a common political will to prioritize the best interests of the people” of the vast northern desert region they call Azawad, adding that a political solution was the only option in securing peace.  According to the groups, the merger will go ahead “within 45 days” after the membership of each of the groups had approved the move, adding that no name has yet been chosen for the new movement.

Meanwhile in the latest insecurity to hit the country, on Monday four people were killed in northern Mali after their truck ran over a land mine.  According to a local government official in Menaka, four passengers were killed when a pick-up, which was transporting thirty-eight people between the desert towns of Ansongo and Menaka in the region of Gao, drove over the explosive device.  Ibrahim Ag Moha further indicated that ‘four people died on the spot and eight others were injured, and are currently being taken to hospital in Menaka.”  Two of the injured are reported to be in critical condition.  The truck was a public transport vehicle.  It currently remains unknown who is responsible for laying the mine however a report released by the United Nations earlier this year indicated that unexploded ordnance and land mines littering the West African nation remained a “significant threat.”

The latest unrest comes as the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon arrived in Mali late on Monday to begin a regional tour that will highlight the battle against poverty.  The Secretary General, along with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim and top officials from the African Union, African Development Bank and European Union are scheduled to meet in Mali on Tuesday before travelling to Niger later that day and Burkina Faso and Chad on Wednesday.  They are scheduled to meet the presidents of each country.    Ahead of his visit to Mali, Mr. Ban stated that eleven million of the 80 million people living in the Sahel countries lack sufficient food.‘  According to a statement released by World Bank chief Jim Yong Kim, “the people of the Sahel region desperately need more secure living standards, and our hope is this funding helps build a new path for economic growth in the region.”  The European Union and the World Bank have pledged more than US $8 billion in fresh aid for the Sahel region countries which have been affected by conflict.

The Secretary General’s official visit to Mali comes at a time when French and Malian troops are searching for the killers of Ghislaine Dupont and Claude Verlon, who were kidnapped and shot dead by suspected terrorists on Saturday in the northeastern town of Kidal.  The deaths of the two French journalists have further highlighted the ongoing security threat just three weeks ahead of parliamentary elections which are meant to mark the completion of Mali’s transition back to democracy following a military coup in March last year.