MS Risk Blog

Fresh Fighting in Mozambique Sparks Fears of a New Civil War

Just days after the Renamo movement ended its peace accord, Zimbabwe has urged that the ex-rebel group in Mozambique end its fighting.

In what is an attack that has sparked fears across Mozambique of a possible return to civil war, on Tuesday, gunmen attacked a police station just after Renamo declared that the 1992 peace accord was no longer valid.  The attack on the police station, which occurred in the central town of Maringue, prompted officers to flee their posts.  According to Maringue’s administrator, Antonio Absaloa, there were no reported casualties however schools in the region remain closed in fears that further clashes may occur.

The town of Maringue is located about 35 kilometers (20 miles) from Renamo’s base in the central Gorongosa mountains.  The Renamo base was seized on Monday by Mozambique’s military, however the ex-rebels have indicated that the operation was aimed at killing its leader, Afonso Dhlakama.  Mozambique’s President Armando Guebuza however has stated that country’s soldiers acted in self-defence after Renamo militants fired at them.  The military raid on the bush camp prompted the Renamo to end the peace accord late on Monday.

Although the attack, and subsequent end of the peace accord, has sparked fears throughout the country and region that the ex-rebels may launch another civil war, on Tuesday an independent negotiator indicated that Mozambique’s President and representatives of Renamo were determined to avoid a return to war.  Lourenco do Rosario had indicated that Renamo “reaffirms that it does not want to return to war,” instead the opposition group has demanded that government forces pull back from its base in the Gorongosa mountains.  According to the independent negotiator, Renamo has also pledged that in exchange, it will not restart hostilities.”  In turn, Mozambique’s President Guebuza has also renewed his commitment, stating that “dialogue is the best way forward despite the skirmishes.”

Founded one year after Mozambique gained its independence from Portugal in 1975, Renamo (the Mozambican National Resistance Movement) was formed as an anti-Communist rebel group that was backed by South Africa’s former white-minority regime.  The group opposed the newly formed Marxist-leaning government, which was led by the Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo), resulting in tensions between the Frelimo and Renamo which later escalated into a civil war that was fought between 1977 and 1992.  Backed by colonial Rhodesia, Renamo was used in order to destablize the Frelimo government, which supported the Zimbabwe liberation fighters.  Once Zimbabwe gained its independence in 1980, Renamo formed an alliance with South Africa’s apartheid regime, which would later supply the group with arms.  During the sixteen year bush war, more than a million people were killed.  The 1992 Rome peace accord ended the war and paved the way for multi-party elections, which were held in 1994.  During the nationwide elections, Renamo lost, later becoming Mozambique’s official opposition.  During the 2009 polls, Renamo had attained only 16.5 percent of the vote, losing to President Armando Guebuza.  This loss prompted Renamo’s dejected leader, Afonso Dhlakama, to threaten fresh fighting.  By October 2012, in the face of dwindling political support, Dhlakama set up a camp in the Gorongosa mountains, where he undertook the training of former guerrilla fighters,who at the time, numbered no more than a thousand.  In November of last year, Dhlakama indicated to the public that he was willing to “destroy Mozambique” if Renamo did not get a larger share of the country’s growing wealth.  Although the rebel group, turned opposition, has repeatedly insisted it gain greater inclusion in the Frelimo government, including an overhaul of electoral laws, the Frelimo government has rejected its pleas, including a plea to renegotiate the terms of the 1992 peace accord.  Currently, the Renamo movement is though to have about 1,000 fighters and fifty-one MP’s.

Since the end of the civil war, Renamo has repeatedly contested the country’s elections, however it has failed to dislodge Frelimo from power.  In turn, they have complained that the Frelimo government is determined in holding on to power, which has resulted in the failure to create conditions for free and fair elections.  While the Renamo have pulled out of the peace accord, its fifty-one MP’s have not withdrawn from parliament.  Mozambique is due to hold local elections in November, with presidential and parliamentary elections set to take place next year.

Al-Shabaab Turns To A More Regional Focus

One month after Somalia’s al-Shabaab militants stormed Kenya’s Westgate shopping centre, killing sixty-seven people during a four-day siege, the threat from the militant group, and local sympathizers, remains high as officials in Somalia and in the African Union (AU) look towards increasing troop numbers in a bid to completely destroy a group which has transformed itself into a regional threat.

Posters reading “if you haven’t learnt the lesson Westgate, more is coming,” which were posted up last week during rallies held in the southern Somali port of Barawe, an al-Shabaab stronghold, confirm what is already going on throughout the country.  Over the past number of months, al-Shabaab has significantly increased its attacks, both within Somalia and near the border regions with Kenya and Ethiopia, both countries which have deployed troops to Somalia in order to combat the militant group.  While these attacks will not stop any time soon, recent remarks made by commanders within the group have indicated that al-Shabaab may increasingly place pressure on those states that have deployed troops in Somalia in a bid to force their withdrawal.

While over the past two years, AMISOM forces throughout Somalia have dislodged al-Shabaab from a number of its strongholds, including from the capital city of Mogadishu and the surrounding regions, as well as from the southern port city of Kismayo, the militant group has continued to carry out assassinations of politicians and journalists along with a number of suicide bombings that have targeted troops and security officials.  While most of the groups‘ previous attacks have typically been small in scale, al-Shabaab has carried out large scale attacks in Somalia and in the region, such as the June 2013 attack on a UN compound in Mogadishu or the 2010 bombings in Kampala which killed seventy-six people.  However this more recent attack on the Nairobi mall has demonstrated a significant and worrying step up in al-Shabaab’s operations, with the group now seemingly increasingly concentrating on attacks that require longer periods of planning and surveillance.  Uganda’s announcement last week that it had increased its security level in the capital city of Kampala, after officials from the US Embassy indicated that they had credible information of a possible terror attack linked to al-Shabaab, also signified that the terrorist group may now increasingly focus on targeting regional interests, especially in those countries which have deployed troops to battle the militant group in Somalia. This recent move may also signify that al-Shabaab is turning its focus from Somalia’s internal politics to a more global agenda, similar to al-Qaeda, which the group is aligned with.

The battle to defeat al-Shabaab will now likely have to concentrate not only within Somalia, but also throughout the wider region, including in the countries that have deployed their armies in Somalia, such as Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda.  While the AU force in Somalia has requested that its size be increased by a quarter, which will amount to 23,000 troops, preventing al-Shabaab from attaining territorial gains within Somalia will not eliminate the group entirely.  A UN report recently indicated that “al-Shabaab continues to pose a regional and international threat through its affiliates,” noting that as AU troops have seized more territory throughout Somalia, there has been an “increasing exodus” of foreign fighters, some of whom left “with the intention of supporting jihad in the region.”  Last week’s announcement that a Norwegian citizen of Somali origin, 23-year-old Hassan Abdi Dhuhulow, was suspected of being one of the attackers in the Westgate incident confirmed what United Nations experts have already noted.  That dozens, if not hundreds, of young men from countries across the Horn of Africa travel to Somalia in order to train with al-Shabaab militants.  In turn, it remains unknown whether the Westgate attackers were sent specifically from Somalia, or whether they were a “homegrown” team recruited within Kenya.  Consequently increasingly focusing on fighters coming from Western or Arab nations, along with local sympathizers and groups aligned with al-Shabaab across eastern Africa, will be a necessary step in fighting the militant group.

Libyan Man Accused of Links to al-Qaeda Appears in Public for First Time Since Being Captured Ten Days Ago

Party Calls for Nationwide Protests in Tunisia

Tunisia’s opposition alliance, the National Salvation Front (NSF) has called for country wide protests in all regions, and particularly in the capital, Tunis, on 23 October. The opposition believes that the Ennahda party is wilfully delaying the formation of a new government, and purposefully stalling negotiations.

On 5 October, the Ennahda party agreed to a political roadmap which would work toward the creation of a new caretaker government within three weeks. The roadmap includes the creation and passing of a new constitution and electoral laws, and a timetable for parliamentary and presidential elections. The transition date had been set for Sunday, 26 October.

However, on 6 October, Ennahda issued a statement calling for “the continuation of the current government until the completion of the constitutional tasks of the Assembly.” This statement directly contradicts the roadmap.

Prime Minister Ali Laarayedh has demanded four conditions be met before the current government is dissolved: the ratification of Tunisia’s new constitution, the reform of election oversight committees, the publication of new election procedures, and a clear date to be set for and parliamentary elections.

The Prime Minister insists that these demands are to ensure that the transition possible is smooth and free of political vacuum. To this end, the date of resignation of the current government was left open by Laarayedh, who said, “There is not a definitive time yet for the resignation of the current government.”

The NSF has accused the Ennahda party of attempting to buy time and failing to live up to their commitment. In response, Laarayedh said the problem with the transition is not the resignation of the government, but the need to maintain administrative continuity and “creating a solid foundation for a democratic environment.”

Complicating Tunisia’s political crisis is a security battle, particularly against armed Islamic extremist movements. The hard-core Salafist group, Ansar Al-Sharia, has been accused of carrying out the murder of Mohamed Brahmi, a left-wing MP, in July. The assassination put political progress at a standstill and deepened the political crisis.

Further, on 16 October, two Tunisian National Guard barracks on the border with Algeria were attacked by terrorist groups. The barracks are part of an advanced border monitoring system. While there have been no reports of casualties among the guards, the areas where the attacks were conducted are some of the most critical in the anti-terrorism system set up between Tunisia and Algeria.

Opposition leaders accuse Ennahda of failing to develop plans to ensure the safety of Tunisians. Laarayedh said that the situation was complex, and that part of the problem was the weakened government in neighbouring Libya, which has failed to mitigate smuggling and illegal weapons trade. The prime minister denied the existence of any accurate information on the quantity of weapons trafficked into Tunisia from Libya.

The scheduled date of the protests, October 23^rd marks the two year anniversary of the election of the National Constitution Assembly. The opposition party has also accused Ennahda of mismanaging the economy and failing to improve living standards; these were the initial causes of the uprising in Tunisia in 2010-2011.

Afghanistan Governor Assassinated During Speech

Yesterday, October 15^th, the governor of Afghanistan’s strategically crucial Logar province was assassinated as he was due to make a speech marking the holiday of Eid al-Adha. This killing is one of few major assassinations of prominent government officials this year; however it highlights the continued goal of insurgents in Afghanistan to deprive the coalition-backed government of competent officials in light of coming elections and the withdrawal of ISAF forces in 2014.

Governor Arsallah Jamal was preparing to give a speech at a mosque in Logar province, when a bomb apparently planted inside the microphone he was due to use was detonated, killing him instantly. At least 15 others were injured, 8 of whom remain in a critical condition. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, however a faction of the Taliban insurgency is almost certainly responsible.

Though Arsallah Jamal had only been appointed as governor of Logar in April, he had previously served as governor of the province of Khost, which shares a border with Pakistan’s tribal region of Waziristan. He was an expert in rural development, and had worked for numerous NGOs, most recently in Canada. He was a close friend of President Hamid Karzai, and managed his 2009 election campaign. Arsallah Jamal had also survived assassination attempts in the past.

The attack took place in Logar’s provincial capital, Pul-e-Alam, a mere 37 miles south of Afghanistan’s capital, Kabul.  Logar is a strategically vital province sometimes referred to as the “gate to Kabul”, lying as it does directly to the south and controlling many of the major road approaches to the capital. Insurgents have stepped up their campaign in the province this year, which has seen violence skyrocket and large swathes of Logar fall under Taliban control. Taliban control of Logar would make it far easier for them to launch attacks in Kabul.

Logar province is also the location of the world’s second biggest copper mine, Aynak, the mining rights to which were awarded to a Chinese firm in 2009. Getting the mine up and running was one of Jamal’s major priorities, and may have contributed to his death. Alternatively, Jamal also made the news recently when he revealed that the US military had recently arrested Latif Mehsud, a senior commander in the Pakistani Taliban (TTP), something else that may have made him a target.

Insurgents in Afghanistan have also waged a long running campaign targeting government officials, in hopes of reducing the ability of Hamid Karzai’s government to function. Over 1000 mid-level officials have been assassinated in the past ten years, while several high profile officials, including numerous provincial governors, have also been murdered. With the state bureaucracy and military of Afghanistan weak, the removal of competent officials, leaders and managers could have serious long-term implications on the sustainability of state institutions. Leadership of provincial governors is also regarded as a key factor in delivering next year’s presidential election.