Prison Assault in Yemen, 21 AQAP Operatives released

13 February: Twenty-nine prisoners escaped from prison following an assault on a central prison complex in Sana’a, Yemen. Of those who escaped, 21 were known members of terror network, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), including explosive experts convicts suspected in the assassination attempt on Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi.

According to an anonymous Yemeni security official, “The group detonated the car bomb at the western wall of the prison, creating an approximately five-meter (16-foot) hole in the wall. They shot and killed the guards in this area, including using RPGs.” Immediately following, two groups of fighters exited cars and broke off into two units; a third group of fighters was stationed on nearby rooftops. As one unit fought with security guards outside the prison; the rooftop opened fire on the guards. The second unit then battled guards inside the prison. Seven soldiers were killed and four were injured. It is unknown whether members of the assault teams were injured.

Yemen has mobilized its security apparatus in efforts to recapture the prisoners. State media has published images of the criminals and called on citizens to contact officials if they see anything.

The assault is the latest in a series of security installation attacks occurring over several months. In mid-January, 10 soldiers were killed in coordinated attacks on three military outposts in the town of Rada’a in Baydah province. In December, a suicide team of AQAP fighters penetrated security at the Ministry of Defence in Sana’a, attempting to target US-led Ops Rooms for the drone program in Yemen. The assault killed 52 people. High-profile assaults were also conducted in September and October of 2013.

While no group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, the nature of the break is consistent with AQAP. The strategy of combining suicide bombers and assault teams has been used by the group in the past. It is a common tactic among al-Qaeda linked allies, including portions of the Taliban and Boko-Haram. Further, AQAP emir and general manager, Nasir al Wuhaysi, released a statement in August 2013, in which he praises militants currently in prison, and vows that efforts will be made to release them.

Rockets Fired in Northern Mali

Military sources in Mali have confirmed that militants launched rockets during a night attack on the desert town of Timbuktu.  None of the intended targets were hit.  Over the past week, this is the second such to occur in northern Mali, resulting in heightened worry amongst officials as militants have vowed to carry out further attacks.  The latest incidents come days after the Red Cross confirmed that a team of five aid workers was kidnapped.

A senior Malian army officer stationed in Timbuktu has confirmed that three rockets were fired on Sunday night by “terrorists,” adding “fortunately there were no casualties.”  A source from the United Nations’ MINUSMA peacekeeping  force also confirmed that attack, which came three days after a similar assault on the northern town of Gao.  On 13 February, militants launched two rockets at a French army base in northern Mali.  The attack occurred during a visit by France’s top military officer.  The incident was later claimed by the militant group Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which is a splinter group of al-Qaeda’s regional branch.  The militant group also warned that similar such attacks would continue to be carried out against the “enemies of Islam.”

Despite both incidents resulting in no casualties, the recent rise in attacks and incidents in northern Mali has nevertheless resulted in heightened concerns amongst local and international officials that security within the northern region continues to be unstable and may threaten the efforts made by the Malian government and international peacekeeping forces.  The attacks also demonstrate MUJAO’s, and similar militant groups, continued capabilities to carry out terrorist attacks.

The latest incidents in northern Mali come days after a group of five Malian Red Cross aid workers went missing on Saturday in an area between Kidal and Gao.  Last Tuesday, MUJAO’s leader confirmed that the militant group was responsible for the kidnapping, adding that the five Malians “are alive and in good health.”  So far the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has not indicated whether a ransom demand has been made.  The current whereabouts of the team are unknown.

Egypt Security Review

Tour Bus Attack in the Sinai

On Sunday, a tour bus was struck by an explosion, killing at least three people and wounding dozens. The busload of tourists was heading back from the famous St. Catherin’s Monastery and was in the border town of Taba, preparing to cross into Israel. At least two South Korean tourists and the Egyptian bus driver were killed. Nearly all 33 passengers were wounded, 12 suffered serious injuries. The attack has gone unclaimed. The border crossing at Taba between Egypt and Israel has since been closed.

Egyptian officials have varied on the cause of the explosion, with some reports indicating a car or bomb detonation, and others claiming that the explosive device was inside the bus. However, reports this morning indicate a suicide attack. According to Interior Ministry spokesman Hani Abdel-Latif, the driver and two South Koreans stepped out of the parked bus and went to the cargo hold. As they reboarded, the bomber pushed in through the open bus door and detonated his explosives.

Since July 2013, over 300 attacks have occurred in the Sinai Peninsula; however they have predominantly targeted security forces or gas pipelines in North Sinai. The bus attack is the first to target foreign tourists since the 2009 bombing in the famous Khan el-Khalili market which killed one and wounded 20. An attack against tourists in South Sinai has not taken place since 2006.

Some analysts believe that the attacks may have been carried out by militant Islamist group Ansar Jerusalem (Ansar Beit al Maqdis). A large portion of the attacks both in the Sinai Peninsula and in other areas of Egypt have been claimed by the group. On 13 February, Ansar Jerusalem released a video claiming responsibility for the 29 December bombing of a military intelligence building in the Sharqiya governorate. The bombing wounded at least 4 people, and came five days after a similar attack in Mansoura killed over a dozen people and injured more than 130. The video includes scenes of security forces attacking protestors, and points out assaults on female protesters, echoing previous complaints made by the group. Weeks earlier, Ansar Jerusalem released video of their members using a surface-to-air missile to take down an Egyptian helicopter operating in North Sinai, killing five soldiers.

Ansar Jerusalem has commonly targeted security forces and gas pipelines, but the group has warned in jihadist forums that it will target economic interests in response to military operations to eradicate terrorism in the Sinai. While it is possible that the attack on the bus was a one-time incident, there is heightened awareness that the bombing marks the beginning of a new angle of attack.

Tunnels Destroyed on Gaza Border

On Saturday, the Egyptian army destroyed ten tunnels on the border with the Gaza Strip in the Sinai Peninsula. In addition, seven homes that the tunnels led to were also destroyed. The destruction of the tunnels is part of Egypt’s continuing plan to create a buffer zone along the Gaza border. The zone is to extend 300 meters in populated areas and 500 meters in open areas.

Also on Saturday, three explosive devices were safely detonated by the Egyptian army. The devices were placed in military vehicles and armoured cars in Sheikh Zuwaid. The army has raided militant strongholds in the area.

Morsi Trial Postponed

Selim el-Awa, the lawyer representing former president Mohamed Morsi and 35 other Muslim Brotherhood figures, has withdrawn his defence team in objection to the soundproof glass box that the defendants are forced to remain in during court proceedings. The court has postponed the trial until 23 February.

The glass boxes were installed prevent Morsi and other Brotherhood figures from disrupting the trials in the manner they have since the courtroom procedures began last year. On Sunday, Morsi and other defendants chanted the Egyptian national anthem, and slogans against military rule.

Members of the defence team were invited into the glass boxes to ensure the defendants were able to hear the proceedings. However, the defence claimed that the trial was nearly inaudible in Morsi’s box, and completely inaudible in boxes used for other defendants. El Awa decided that his team will not attend future hearings until the boxes are removed. While the court announced it will appoint 10 new lawyers to the case, el Awa’s decision could invalidate the trial because he is the only lawyer authorised by Morsi and the other defendants.

Morsi and the other defendants are accused of working with foreign groups to commit acts of terrorism in Egypt, revealing defence secrets to a foreign country, funding terrorists and organising military training “to achieve the purposes of the international organisation of the Brotherhood.” Specifically, prosecution believes the defendants were collaborating with Hamas, Hezbollah, and other groups within and outside of Egypt to smuggle arms and train combatants in an attempt to threaten Egypt’s national security. The charges span from 2005 to 2013.

Sabbahi invites el Sisi to debate

On Saturday, Hamadeen Sabbahi, a leading leftist figure and the only person to announce candidacy Egypt’s  presidential elections, invited army chief Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi to engage in a live debate should el-Sisi decide to run. Sabbahi did add that he does not believe the army chief should run, but should rather opt to maintain his stature.

El-Sisi was appointed by Morsi and relatively unknown before his role in the removal of Morsi. Since July, he has grown exponentially popular and is widely expected, if he runs, to win the presidential elections by a landslide. However, Sabbahi has rejected this assertion: “It’s not a done deal as many think […] the people are capable of choosing [a candidate] based on their knowledge of history.”

He adds, “I am sure that the right decision after the revolution is to establish a state that serves the people, and not a state that is served by people.” Cautiously, Sabbahi highlighted that he would not allow competition with El Sisi over the presidency to turn into a face-off between revolutionary groups and the army.

Sabbahi, a former member of parliament, ran for president in 2012, finishing third behind Mohamed Morsi and ex-Mubarak premier Ahmed Shafiq. He is considered a leader in the revolution and an outspoken opponent of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Meanwhile, although el Sisi was empowered by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) to run for president, he not publicly stated his plans. Last week during a visit to Moscow to discuss a $2 billion arms deal, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated el Sisi on his undeclared intentions to run, escalating suspicions of his intentions.

Kidnapping targets Christian Children

In the past two weeks, at least 9 cases of Christians being kidnapped have been reported in the Minya province of Upper Egypt. The trend compared to last year, however, shows that younger people are being targeted for kidnapping.

Minya, with a 50% Christian population, has the highest percentage of Christians in Egypt. Christians make up approximately 10% of the Egyptian population. Kidnappers have a perception of wealth associated with the Christian population. This perception, coupled with weak security infrastructure in the region, makes residents in the region susceptible to kidnapping. In 2013, 69 kidnappings were documented from the Minya province alone. In 61 cases, kidnappers have received a ransom. Demands have ranged from $7,000 to $500,000. It is possible that kidnappers believe that families and communities will pay more, and more quickly, to see the release a younger child who has been kidnapped.

Creator of Pro-Brotherhood Facebook Page Arrested in Tanta

In a statement on their social media page, the Egyptian Ministry of Interior announced the arrest of a man who created the “Tanta Anti-Coup Movement” Facebook page. The page, which was created in August 2013, places blame on the interim government for the overthrow Mohammad Morsi in July. It has over 10,400 likes.

The statement labels the man, who was only identified by his initials and birth year, a “Muslim Brotherhood terrorist,” and announced that he was charged with “spreading false news, inciting violence against security forces,” and “spreading personal information of security officers.” Egyptian forces seized computers and flash-drives from the suspect’s home and an investigation is being conducted.

Textile Workers Strike Enters Second Week

Around 20,000 workers at the state-owned Holding Company for Cotton Spinning and Weaving in Mahalla continued their strike to demand demanding late wages, the resignation of company Chairman Abdel-Alim Hassan, and the replacement of the company’s commissioner, Abdel Fattah Al-Zoghby. The company has already lost between 15 and 20 million Egyptian pounds (EGP).

The workers are demanding late wages for two months, totalling 155 million EGP. Despite the new legislation setting the minimum monthly income for public employees at 1,200 EGP, there are thousands of workers that earn only 500 EGP a month. On Saturday, management promised workers that they would receive their bonuses by the evening, but the workers did not receive the wages, and so continued strike action.

MENA Security Update

Algeria

Retired General calls on Bouteflika to Step Down

12 February: Retired senior Algerian General Hocine Benhadid has called on President Abdulaziz Bouteflika to step down “with dignity” rather than running for a fourth term in the upcoming Algerian elections in April. In Benhadid’s interview, he claims to speak on behalf of others in the armed forces. He says the country’s stability cannot be guaranteed by someone who was “sick” and the “hostage of his entourage.” Bouteflika has been in power since 1999. In April 2013, he suffered a mini-stroke, and was flown to Paris for treatment, remaining there for three months. Bouteflika has not yet said if he is healthy enough to run for re-election.

Benhadid has also singled out for criticism Bouteflika’s brother Said, the “main actor” in the presidential clan, as well as Army Chief Ahmed Gaid Salah, saying “The chief of staff has no credibility, and no one is fond of him.”

Benhadid’s statements show an increasing power struggle between Bouteflika supporters and the army, which is likely to play out in the elections.

Egypt

Morsi: Protests are useless; Sisi could face a coup

12 February: In comments to his lawyer, former Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi has called the weekly protests supporting him ‘useless’. The snippet was the third released from a 40 minute recording of a Morsi speaking to his lawyers during a court appearance in February. The matter of protests arises when Morsi asks his lawyer of news from the outside world. His lawyer, Selim el Awa, says that there are daily street protests by supporters, which routinely end in clashes. El Awa adds, “People must sit down, talk and reach a solution,” he says. “Without reaching a solution, Dr Mohamed, there’s no point,” to which Morsi agrees, adding the protests are “useless for both sides”.

On the streets of Egypt, attrition in protests has taken place as demonstrators consider the utility of regular protests, particularly as they invariably end in clashes with security forces. Although not intended for publicity, the comments from Morsi mark the first time it has been questioned from an authority figure from within the Muslim Brotherhood.

Constant clashes and increasing violence has left thousands dead, and spurred bombings and unprecedented violence by radical militant groups, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula and in Cairo. The Muslim Brotherhood has since been designated as a terrorist organisation by Egyptian authorities. Last week, interim president Adly Mansour, told a state newspaper last week that there was no prospect of political reconciliation between the Brotherhood and Egypt’s military leaders.

Morsi also asked why Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the military leader responsible for removing him from office, has been promoted to the rank of field marshal. He asks, “Is it so there will be no one more senior than [Field Marshal Abdel Fattah el Sisi] when he becomes president?”

It is expected that al-Sisi will soon announce his bid for presidency in the upcoming election, and further expected that he would win by a large margin. In the recordings, Morsi shows surprise that that anyone would want to take the reins of such a troubled country, and warns that “whoever leads a coup must face a coup.”

Iran

Iran Tests New Missiles

11 February: The Iranian Defence Ministry has announced the successful test-firing of new missiles, including one designed to destroy “all types of enemy military equipment.” The new missiles include a laser-guided surface-to-surface and air-to-surface missile. Iran has also developed a long-range ballistic missile that can carry multiple warheads and can evade enemies’ anti-missile defence systems, with the “the capability of destroying massive targets and destroying multiple targets.”

Pentagon spokesman Admiral John Kirby has called the missile program “a dangerous threat to region.” A UN Security Council Resolution has prohibited Iran from activities related to developing ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

The tests come as reports are released that Iranian warships are en route toward U.S. maritime borders. The move is supposedly a response to the increase of United States naval presence in the Persian Gulf, however US military officials say there is no “operational information to support the claim.”

Iraq

300,000 Displaced from Violence in Anbar Province

The UN has announced that as many as 300,000 people have been displaced by fighting between Sunni militants and security forces in the Anbar province of Iraq. The number marks the highest displacement in the region since the sectarian clashes between 2006 and 2008.

In December, groups of militants led by Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS or ISIL) took over large parts of Fallujah and Ramadi, leaving Iraqi troops and pro-government supporters struggling to regain control. The roads leading into and out of these cities are also part of the battleground, as the army tries to secure supply routes and cut off militant groups. Security forces have slowly regained areas of Ramadi, but they have not yet launched an offensive to recapture Fallujah for fear of a repeat of the battles similar to those against US troops in 2004. On Saturday, Anbar Governor Ahmed al-Dulaimi gave the militants a week to surrender, but emphasised that officials would not negotiate with ISIS.

Lebanon

New App Lets Citizens Tweet After Bombings

12 February: An innovator in Lebanon has developed a new smartphone app: with one tap, citizens can automatically tweet, “I am still alive! #Lebanon #Latestbombing.” The app’s creator intended to showcase the deteriorating security in Lebanon with an “ironic solution” (the website says, “Every time there is an explosion, we have to spend a lot of time contacting our loved ones…Not anymore!”) However, the irony was lost as over 4,000 users have downloaded the tool since its launch in January. Further, citizens from other war-torn areas have contacted the creator to request their own localised versions.

Libya

Libyans Terrified as Government Unable to Stop Killings

12 February: Killings have been on the rise in Libya due to a combination of “score-settling”, extremist shootings, and rival killings by military wings, and gangs killing for profit.

Since the weekend, several killings have been reported. On 10 February, former policemen Montasser Anwar Bennaser was the latest in a string of targeted assassinations. A bomb under his car was detonated shortly after he dropped off his son at school in Derna. A day earlier, Saiqa Special Forces member Alaa Mohammad Ali’s corpse was found tied to a rock at Karsa beach. On Saturday, Former Libyan Attorney-General and Supreme Court Chancellor Abdul Aziz al-Hassadi was shot dead in the Derna city centre. On Friday, an imam, Cheikh Atef Madouli, was killed after prayers at al-Ansari mosque, in Benghazi’s Hadaiq district. There have also been a series of abductions that remain unresolved.

Libyan citizens extremely concerned, wondering how abductions and killings seem to occur with no witnesses, particularly when they occur in crowded areas and during daylight hours.

Sudan

Sudanese, Egyptian Authorities Involved in Torture of Eritrean Refugees

12 February: A report released by Human Rights Watch (HRW) states that in the past 10 years, authorities in Sudan colluded with human traffickers in the kidnap and torture of hundreds of Eritrean refugees.

The report includes testimony from dozens of refugees who said that Sudanese and Egyptian security officers often facilitated their abuse rather than arresting the traffickers.

Earlier reports have shown that Eritrean refugees are regularly brutalised, having faced atrocities such as mutilation, burning, beatings and sexual assault. The threat and conduct of torture is devised to extort large ransoms from the victims’ families. The victims have described the pattern of being intercepted inside the eastern Sudanese border by police. The police arbitrarily detain them, and then hand them to traffickers. Many of those abducted report being abused for weeks or months in Kassala, or transferred to Arish, in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, where they receive much the same treatment.

The author of the HRW report, Gerry Simpson, says that police and soldiers in Sudan and Egypt who help traffickers kidnap and torture refugees have nothing to fear. He adds that some police in eastern Sudan are so emboldened that they hand refugees over to traffickers in police stations.

Trafficking and abuse is inadequately investigated or prosecuted in both nations, which constitutes a breach of obligations under national and international anti-trafficking laws, international human rights law and national criminal law. Simpson adds, “The time has long passed for Egypt and Sudan to stop burying their heads in the sand and take meaningful action to end these appalling abuses.”

Up until December 2013, Egypt had prosecuted just one person with trafficking offences, while Sudan had launched 14 prosecutions of traffickers and four of police officers in connection with trafficking and torture.

Syria

ISIL Withdraws from Deir al-Zor Province

10 February: al Qaeda’s affiliate, al-Nusra front has been battling for days against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) for control of towns and oilfields Deir al-Zor province. There have been a series of car bombs and attacks in the region. However, the ISIL fighters have chosen to withdraw from the area.  A statement on Twitter said that ISIL had withdrawn to prevent further bloodshed. They have moved to the Hassaka and Raqqa provinces, the latter of which is a stronghold of ISIL.

Last month, several rebel groups joined forces and launched a campaign to push ISIL forces out of opposition-held regions in northern and eastern Syria. The anti ISIL groups include secular and religious members, who normally have territorial and ideological diputes. However ISIL, a group that has attracted non-Syrians to the region, has alienated the civilian populations in areas it controls by imposing harsh rulings (including beheadings) against what it perceives as dissent

Pro-opposition group, The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said the Deir al-Zor province was now in the hands of al-Nusra and 10 other rebel groups. ISIL had asked for mediation which was rejected by Nusra.

ISIL’s goal is to set up an Islamic emirate in territories within Iraq and Syria. Their goals clash with other Syrian rebel forces, who aim to overthrow Assad and then determine a ruling system for Syria.

Yemen

Yemen Divided into Six States

10 February: Final approval has been given for Yemen to become a federation of six regions as part of its political transition. The new federal structure, the result of the national dialogue, will be put into a constitution will be put to a referendum. The division into states is aimed at eliminating acrimonious and sometimes violent divides between North and South Yemenis. Delegates at the National Dialogue Conference also agreed to reverse the overt political and economic marginalisation against southern Yemenis that had been entrenched since the two regions were unified in 1994.

If passed in referendum, the six regions would be: in the south, Aden and Hadramawt; in the north  Saba, Janad, Azal and Tahama. Sanaa, the capital, would become “a federal city not subject to any regional authority” and the constitution would “guarantee its neutrality.” Aden, a major port city, would be given special status, including “independent legislative and executive powers”.

Many politicians from Southern Yemen have rejected the six-state idea. Some call it a “coup against what had been agreed at the dialogue.” They had urged for a two-state federation, feeling that the North has greater footing because they hold four of the six states. However, the south has access to a larger share of country’s oil resources

Niger’s Appeal for Libyan Intervention; Twin Bombings in Somalia

Despite an appeal for intervention from neighboring Niger, on Monday officials in France announced that, for the time being, they ruled out Western military action against Islamist fighters in southern Libya.

Asked about Niger’s recent call for action, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius stated Monday that there was no question of putting foreign troops into a region that the United States has identified as an increasingly worrisome new haven for al-Qaeda-linked militants.  However the French Minister further noted that while France has ruled out Western military action, Western powers are aware of the problem and are drawing up plans in order to help the Libyan government deal with this issue.

Speaking in Paris, Mr Fabius stated “…we are going to have an international meeting in Rome at the beginning of March to give Libya more help because its true that there are terrorists gathering in the south.”  Mr Fabius further indicated that officials from Britain, Germany, Algeria, Egypt, Tunisia and the United States were all involved in talks on aid the Libyan government, adding “we have to fight terrorism everywhere….That does not mean we have to have people on the ground, it means we have to help governments that want to get rid of terrorism, which is the case with the Libyan government.”

The response by officials in France comes after Niger last week called on the West to finish the job they had begun in Libya by dealing with those Islamist groups that have established bases in the southern region of the country since the 2011 overthrow of former dictator Moamer Kadhafi.  The call by the Niger government comes shortly after an annual intelligence report, released in December 2013, which indicated that the United States had stated that southern Libya had become an “incubator” for terrorism in a “hothouse” region and described a possible intervention as “within the bounds of the possible.”

A poor, but mineral-rich former French colony, Niger has had to contend with numerous Islamist attacks and kidnappings on its own soil, some of which have threatened the security of its uranium production.