MS Risk Blog

Ahead of a Referendum, Ukraine’s Crimea Votes for Full Independence

On Tuesday, Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula voted for full independence from Ukraine ahead of a referendum to join Russia.  Meanwhile, France has threatened sanctions against Moscow, which could be implemented as early as this week.

Yanukovych Remains Defiant 

The latest escalation, in what has developed into Europe’s worst crisis in decades, came moments after ousted pro-Kremlin leader Victor Yanukovych defiantly vowed to return to Kiev from Russia, declaring that he was still the leader of the former Soviet country.  Speaking to reporters in the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, Yanukovych, in what is his first public appearance since February 28, stated “I remain not just the sole legitimate president of Ukraine but also commander-in-chief,” adding “as soon as the circumstances allow – and I am sure there is not long to wait – I will without doubt return to Kiev.”

In light of the upcoming referendum, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius warned that if Moscow failed to respond to Western proposals on the standoff, sanctions against Russia could come as early as this week.  On Tuesday, Western officials are also expected to meet in London in order to finalize a list of Russian officials who may face asset freezes and travel restrictions over their role in endangering the sovereignty of Europe’s largest state.

Independence and Referendum

On Tuesday, Crimea’s parliamentary assembly took another dramatic step by issuing a declaration proclaiming the region’s full independence from Kiev rule.  The body had earlier voted to actually join Russia, with the latest move appearing to be primarily aimed at creating a legal framework for becoming a part of Russia as a sovereign state.

Crimea has been a tinderbox since Russian forces seized control of the Black Sea peninsula, which has been home to its Black Sea Fleet since the 18^th century, with help of Kremlin-backed militias days after Yanukovych fled Ukraine last month in response to three months of deadly unrest.  The strategic region’s self-declared rulers are recruiting volunteers to fight Ukrainian soldiers while Russia’s parliament on Tuesday prepared legislation that would simplify the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea after Sunday’s vote.  However the pro-European leaders in Kiev have rejected the referendum and are appealing to Western powers for both diplomatic backing and pressure on Moscow to release its troops stronghold on the rugged peninsula of two million people.

NATO Launches Surveillance

Meanwhile NATO announced Monday that it will deploy AWACS reconnaissance aircraft, which will overfly Poland and Romania, as part of alliance efforts to monitor the crisis in Ukraine.  The Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) will fly missions from their home base in Geilenkirchen, Germany, where seventeen are housed, and from Waddington in Britain.  The AWACS aircraft are one of the most sophisticated command and control vehicles in the NATO armoury, capable of monitoring huge swathes of airspace, with diplomatic sources indicating that the AWACS were routinely deployed and on that count, there was nothing unusual in their use in this case.    However a diplomatic source has indicated that it is unusual that the deployment has been announced publicly.

According to a NATO official, the flights “will enhance the Alliance’s situational awareness,” adding “all AWACS reconnaissance flights will take place solely over Alliance territory.”  The official also noted “this decision is an appropriate and responsible action in line with NATO’s decision to intensify our on-going assessment of the implications of this crisis for Alliance security.”  Flying over Poland and Romania the AWACS planes should be able to see far into Ukraine’s airspace.

As the Ukraine crisis has deepened, with Russian intervention on the Crimean peninsula, former Soviet satellites in Eastern Europe have become increasingly nervous at President Vladimir Putin’s apparent willingness to up the ante.  The situation risks becoming more difficult if Crimea, which is now controlled by pro-Russian leaders, votes in a March 16 referendum to break all links with Kiev and become a part of Russia.  Poland and the Baltic states especially have taken a hard line as events have unfolded and last week, Warsaw called for urgent consultations with its NATO allies on the situation.  In response to Putin’s move into Crimea, which is home to a large Russian-speaking population and the Black Sea fleet, the US is sending a dozen F-16 fighter jets and 300 service personnel to Poland as part of a training exercise.  Last week, Washington also deployed six additional F-15 fighter jets to step up NATO air patrols over the Baltic states.

The United Nations Launches Human Rights Probe in CAR Atrocities

The United Nations has launched a human rights investigation into the on-going violence that is taking place in the Central African Republic (CAR).  The launch of the investigation comes after the UN Security Council ordered an inquiry in December to identify suspects who could be prosecuted for the violence.  On Monday, inquiry head Bernard Acho Muna indicated that he hoped the presence of investigators in the CAR would help prevent genocide.  The Cameroonian judge added that “we have to put an end to the impunity,” noting that the “hate propaganda” in the CAR was similar to that in Rwanda before the 1994 genocide that killed about 800,000 people.  Speaking at a press conference in Geneva, before heading for the CAR, Mr Muna stated “we don’t wait until genocide is committed and then we call for prosecution….I think it is in our mandate to see how one can stop any advances toward genocide.”  The inquiry will “…present to the Security Council a complete file so that the appropriate action can be taken.”  A team of UN investigators will arrive in Bangui on Tuesday to begin interviewing Christian and Muslim victims of attacks, as well as senior political and military officials and activist groups.   The commission, which includes former Mexican foreign minister Jorge Castaneda and Fatimata M’Baye, a lawyer from Mauritania, will spend two weeks in the CAR and will also look into Chad’s role in the violence.  They will then draw up a confidential list of suspects for eventual prosecution, which will be submitted to world powers later this year.  They will also be in touch with a preliminary inquiry, which will be carried out by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Since the beginning of the conflict last year, thousands of people have been killed while the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) says that about 1.3 million people, a quarter of the population, are in need of aid.  Tens of thousand of Muslims have also fled the country as Christian militias have stepped up their attacks since the forced resignation of the CAR’s first Muslim ruler, Michel Djotodia, in January 2014.  Many Muslims have crossed the borders into neighbouring Cameroon and Chad, while thousands more are living in camps inside the CAR.  Although interim President Catherine Samba Panza has appealed for an end to the bloodshed, this appeal has gone with little success.

On Friday, UN aid chief Valerie Amos announced that fewer than 1,000, of the more than 100,000 Muslims who once lived in the capital city, remain in Bangui.

Somali Forces Launch Operations to Retake al-Shabaab Controlled Regions

Officials indicated Monday that African peacekeepers, operating alongside government forces, have recaptured several strategic towns in the south-western region of Somalia.  The recapture comes just days after the African Union’s AMISOM force announced that it had launched a wide scale offensive against al-Shabaab militants in areas located near the Ethiopian border.  The operation to remove the militant group from its last remaining strongholds in central and southern Somalia also comes in the wake of a sure of attacks in the country’s capital, Mogadishu, where al-Shabaab continues its bid to oust the internationally-backed government.

Speaking to reports, regional government official Abdulahi Yarisow confirmed the operations, stating “AMISOM and the Somali troops kicked al-Shabaab out of several key towns including Wajid and regional capital Hudur,” adding that “our military advancement will continue until we eliminate the enemy from the rest of the country.”  A statement released by AMISOM indicated that troops had secured the towns of Ted, Rabdhure and Buudhubow, effectively driving out al-Shabaab militants from the area.  The statement added that “the SNA (Somali National Army) and AMISOM joint operations signal the beginning of the renewed efforts by the Somali government forces working more closely with AMISOM forces to dislodge al-Shabaab from many of its strongholds across the country.”

Although Hudur had been captured from al-Shabaab by Ethiopian troops in March 2012, their withdrawal from the region resulted in the town falling back into the control of al-Shabaab.

ICC Court Announces Verdict for Congolese Ex-Militia Boss

On Friday, the International Criminal Court (ICC) found Germain Katanga guilty of war crimes but has acquitted him of sexual offences.  He has been found guilty of complicity in a 2003 massacre and becomes just the second person to be convicted by the court since it was set up in The Hague in 2002.  If he had been convicted of sexual offences, he would have been the first to be convicted of sexual crimes.

On Friday, the ICC was due to deliver its verdict in the trial of Congolese ex-militia boss Germain Katanga, who has been accused of using child soldiers in a 2003 attack on a village in the central region of the African country, killing 200 people.  Judge Bruno Cotte read out the verdict at 0830 GMT in the case against Katanga, the one-time commander of the ethnic-based Patriotic Resistance Forces in Ituri (FRPI), operating in the DR Congo’s mineral-rich north-eastern region.

Katanga, 35, went on trial more than four years ago, facing seven counts of war crimes and three of crimes against humanity, including murder, sexual slavery and rape, for his alleged role in the attack on the small village of Bogoro on 24 April 2003.  During the trial, prosecutors alleged that the man and his forces of the Ngiti and Lendu tribes attacked villagers of the Hema ethnic group with machine guns, rocket-propelled grenades and machetes, murdering around 200 people.  According to the prosecution, “the attack was intended to ‘wipe out’ or ‘raze’ Bogoro village…”  Child soldiers were used while women and girls were abducted afterwards and used as sex slaves, forced to cook and obey orders from FRPI soldiers.  In 2004, as part of a policy to end the civil strife, Katanga was made a general in President Joseph Kabila’s army, a post he held until he was arrested in 2005.  In October 2007, he was transferred to The Hague while his trial, together with that of his co-accused Mathieu Ngudjolo Chui, began two years later.  In November 2012, judges split the trials and a month later, Ngudjolo was acquitted after judges in that case indicated that the prosecution had failed to prove that he had played a commanding role in the Bogoro attack.  This was the first time that the ICCC had acquitted a suspect.  Katanga, who has pleaded not guilty to the charges, has consistently maintained that he had no direct command or control over the FRPI fighters at the time.  He also denied ever being present at the time of the attack on Bogoro, which is located 25 kilometres (15 miles) south of Ituri province’s administrative capital Bunia, near Lake Albert.  The Hague-based ICC has so far only convicted one other suspect, former Congolese rebel fighter Thomas Lubanga, who was sentenced in 2012 to 14 years for recruiting and enlisting child soldiers.

Top Diplomats Meet in Paris to find Solution To Ukrainian Crisis

As top diplomats are seeking to find a solution to the crisis in Ukraine as they meet in Paris, France to hold high-level talks with both parties, Russia announced on Wednesday that it could not order “self defence” forces in Ukraine’s Crimea region back to their bases.  With the crisis in Ukraine an on-going matter, Russia and the West are locked in the most serious confrontation since the conclusion of the Cold War.

Meeting in Paris 

Russia’s Foreign Minister Serge Lavrov has confirmed that he will hold talks with his counterpart from the United States, along with key European Union states, in order to try and resolve the crisis in Ukraine.

Mr Lavrov will meet on Wednesday with US Secretary of State John Kerry and count parts from the United Kingdom, Germany and France on the side-lines of a long-planned conference on Lebanon which will be held in Paris.  Speaking before meeting with US Secretary of State John Kerry, and other Western ministers, Russian Foreign Minster Sergei Lavrov repeated Moscow’s assertion that the troops that have seized control of the Black Sea peninsula are not under Russian command.  Asked whether Moscow would order forces in Crimea back to their bases, the Russian Minister indicated that “if you mean the self-defence units created by the inhabitants of Crimea, we give them no orders, they take no order from us,” adding “as for the military personnel of the Black Sea Fleet, they are in their deployment sites.  Yes, additional vigilance measures were taken to safeguard the sites….We will do everything not to allow any bloodshed.”

Although the gathering in Paris is seen as a chance to test the waters for a dialogue about Ukraine, UK Foreign Secretary William Hague has indicated that the Russians have already failed to appear at one meeting with Ukrainian officials in Paris and that he is “not optimistic” that any further progress will be achieved.  In reference to a threat of sanctions by the US and the EU, Hague indicated that “if we cannot make progress on that course there will be costs and consequences.”   Russia did not attend a meeting with Kerry, Hague and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Deshchytsia of the so-called Budapest group created to assure Ukraine’s security after it abandoned nuclear weapons in 1994.  However both Kerry and Hague have indicated that they will try to bring the Russian and Ukrainian minister together.

NATO and Russia are also due to hold parallel talks in Brussels amidst concerns that a standoff between Russian and Ukrainian forces in Crimea could still spark violence, or that Moscow could also intervene in the Russian-speaking eastern region of Ukraine.

The West is pushing for Russia to return troops to their barracks, to accept international monitors in Crimea and Ukraine and to negotiate a solution to the crisis through a “contact group,” which will most likely be under the auspices of a pan-European security body.  Officials from France have also indicated that European Union leaders meeting in Brussels on Thursday could also decide to place sanctions against Russia if there is no “de-escalation” by then.

Last year, under great pressure from Russia, Ukraine pulled out of a trade deal with the EU.  This move effectively sparked months of protests in Kiev and on 22 February 2014, Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovich, a Russian ally, was ousted from power.  Russia currently occupies Crimea, where it’s Black Sea Fleet is based, a move which has raised international tensions and provoked sharp falls in financial markets

Egypt’s Sisi to Run for Office

Egypt’s Minister of Defence Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has told Egyptian state media that that he cannot “ignore the demands of the majority” for him to run as a candidate in the upcoming presidential election. The statement is not an official declaration; however it is the clearest indication made by Sisi, who has consciously avoided answering questions regarding his intention to run for president.

Last week, speculation on Sisi’s decision wavered following his decision to remain in the Egyptian Cabinet after the Prime Minister and other cabinet members unexpectedly resigned from office. His decision to remain as Defence Minister suggested that he would not run for office, despite gaining blessings from the Supreme Council of Armed Forces (SCAF) in January. However, Sisi told the media that “official procedures” for his candidacy could be expected in the coming days. Sources close to Sisi have said that he will step down from his dual roles as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces and Defence Minister before his official announcement. The new laws regulating the presidential election are to be approved by Interim President Adly Mansour within the next two weeks

Within Egypt, Sisi’s popularity has sky-rocketed since he famously removed former Egyptian president Mohamed Morsi’s from office. In Cairo and across Egypt, posters of the Commander-in-Chief are prominent and growing. Several members of media, politicians, and businessmen have their support for Sisi’s candidacy, believing him to be able to restore the nation’s security and revive the economy. However, members of the Muslim Brotherhood, who remain loyal to former president Morsi, oppose the candidacy. Similarly, a portion of the Egyptian population feels strongly that the military is too heavily involved in politics, and putting Sisi into office will negate the revolution that overthrew Hosni Mubarak in 2011. Mubarak was the third in a succession of dictators hailing from a military background.

Internationally, Sisi has been equally divisive. His popularity has gained momentum among some governments, but is met with caution by others. Since the removal of Morsi, Egypt has appeared to distance itself from its once close relationship with the United States, and has moved back toward the relationship it had with Russia prior to 1979. In February, Sisi visited Moscow to sign a new cooperation and arms deal with the Kremlin. During the two-day session, Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly told Sisi, “I know that you have taken the decision to run for President. It’s a very responsible decision. I wish you luck, both from myself personally and from the Russian people.” This statement was met with unease in Washington. Marie Harf, spokeswoman for the US State Department, said, “Of course we don’t endorse a candidate and don’t think it’s, quite frankly, up to the United States or to Mr Putin to decide who should govern Egypt. It’s up to the Egyptian people to decide.” Once again, Egypt finds itself in a position between two major nations, a critical situation in awakening of the previously dormant Cold War.

When Sisi makes his announcement, he will be the third to announce his candidacy. Hamdeen Sabbahi, the founder of the Popular Current Party, threw his hat into the ring in February, claiming to run in order to “protect the revolution.” His decision caused a split amongst the Tamarod movement, which was the group that organised the mass protests resulting in Morsi’s departure. Membership has been divided between those supporting Sisi, and those supporting Sabbahi, who came in third during the 2012 elections.

In October 2013, Lieutenant General Sami Anan declared his intentions to run for office. In the Mubarak era, Anan was the Deputy Chairman of SCAF, and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces. Until his announcement, he had remained out of the public spotlight. The move baffled Egyptians, including members of the Egyptian military. Some military analysts believe that Anan’s announcement served to test Egyptians’ reaction to the possibility of a military figure as president. Others believe Anan is expressing his own desires. Many political and military figures have reacted negatively to Anan’s intentions. The Egyptian armed forces went as far as to issue a statement warning Egyptians to not be confused by Anan’s efforts. The military spokesman urged the media not to publish Anan’s statements.

Sisi therefore faces two comparatively weaker opponents, and emerges as a tide of support swells around his candidacy. It is expected that the elections, which are expected before the end of Aprile, will see Sisi win by a large margin.