MS Risk Blog

Egyptian Government Resigns

In a move that shocked the nation, this morning Egypt’s military-backed government tendered its resignation to the republic.

In a televised address, Egyptian Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi confirmed that the government has resigned. He gave no definitive reason for the decision. An unnamed source has revealed that the decision came after a 15-minute cabinet meeting, which included Defence Minister and Army Chief Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Sisi is widely expected to run for president in the upcoming elections. One official source said, “This was done as a step that was needed ahead of Sisi’s announcement that he will run for president.”

Sisi has skyrocketed in the political sphere since his role in removing former president Mohamed Morsi from office. Shortly after the removal, he unveiled a political roadmap which included a transition from an interim government to a new administration comprised of elected officials. Sisi has been a popular but divisive figure as supporters of the Morsi government have actively protested against the interim government and the army, leading to weekly (sometimes daily) clashes with pro-government citizens and security forces.

The decision also came as a series of strikes continue across several industries, including public transport workers and garbage collectors. Further, the nation has been suffering a great shortage of cooking gas. Prime minister El-Beblawi has been perceived by Egyptian media as indecisive and unable to provide a remedy for the Egypt’s failing economy. Beblawi has also been criticised for his inability to prevent or control escalating terror attacks within Egypt, attacks which have been blamed on the Muslim Brotherhood and extremist supporters of Morsi. Beblawi has acknowledged these poor conditions, but maintains that Egypt is in a better place now than during the Morsi regime.

While it remains unofficial, it is expected that Housing Minister Ibrahim Mehleb will succeed Beblawi.

Tunisia: The Politics of Headscarves

On 14 February, the Tunisian government announced that security forces will tighten checks on women wearing niqab, or full-face veils. The decision comes after a 10 February incident in which a man wearing a niqab, described by officials as a “Salafist”, was arrested in the Ariana neighbourhood in northern Tunis. The public announcement has caused anger among political and human rights activists.

Headscarves in Tunisia

In 1981, under the regime of deposed president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, headscarves in all forms were banned from schools or government buildings. In an effort to enforce conformity, police stopped women in the streets and asked them to remove their headscarves, telling them not to wear them again. It was considered a “sectarian” fashion which came to Tunisia “uninvited”. Many government officials believed that head scarves were being promoted by religious extremists with political ambitions. Over time, the niqab in particular grew to be viewed as a political symbol, more so than a religious one. In 2006, Tunisian authorities reinforced the ban. Though activists considered the ban a deprivation of human rights, under Ben Ali’s authoritative regime, the dissent was quickly quieted.

Following Ben Ali’s removal in January 2011, the practice of wearing headscarves increased significantly. Around 80% of Tunisian women wear a version of the traditionally accepted hijab, which covers the hair and ears, leaving the face uncovered. Though increasing in popularity, only 2% of women wear the niqab, which leaves only the eyes exposed. The full burqa, which leaves no features of the face exposed, is worn by less than 1% of the female population.

The increase in various forms of headscarves has been a hot topic of debate between Islamists and secularists. On university campuses, where niqab is still discouraged (and in some universities, banned completely), violent confrontations have occurred between factions on both sides of the debate. In 2012, a Tunisian university dean faced trial for allegedly slapping a female student wearing niqab. The woman in question was expelled for six months for refusing to remove her covering. The dean had previously complained that two students wearing niqab had vandalised his office. The event caused protests and sit-ins, as those who protested for their human rights rowed with those concerned about security.

The Political Debate

Political perceptions of headscarves shifted in 2011, when Islamist-leaning advocates, suppressed under the former regime, successfully installed the moderate-Islamist Ennahda party. The ban on headscarves was lifted and many women donned the niqab as a symbol of freedom and victory.

However, due to the Ennahda party’s perceived inability to maintain the economy and preserve national security, tensions quickly soared between the Islamist government and its secular opposition. The conflict was taken to crisis levels in 2013 with the assassination of two secular politicians, both attributed to Islamic extremists. After hard-fought political battles and negotiations, the Ennahda-led government stepped down in late-January 2014.

Tunisia has since installed an independent caretaker government and adopted a new constitution. In the weeks since the change, the debate against wearing niqab in particular has returned, but with another angle. Tunisian Interior Minister Lotfi Ben Jeddo has repeatedly stated that many fugitives have used the niqab to disguise themselves to avoid capture by security forces. Several men have been caught wearing niqab in an attempt to evade police. While security measures will be put in place to check the identities of those wearing niqab, Ben Jeddo emphasised that a total ban would be a political decision, one that sits outside of the Interior Ministry’s mandate.

Mufti supports niqab ban

Tunisia’s mufti, Sheikh Hamda Saeed, has declared his support for banning the niqab on security grounds, believing that leaders have the right to limit “things that are permissible if they find this to be in the best interests of the nation.”

The Mufti’s stance is considered a religious edict. The niqab, while permissible in Islam, is not a requirement. Activists and women who choose to wear niqab are concerned that the new security checks will come at the expense of their dignity. Tunisian security forces will walk a fine line.

The new constitution enshrines both freedom of religion and religious rights. The Tunisian Interior Ministry released a statement saying they will “strictly control every person wearing a niqab within the framework of the law.” As the niqab becomes increasingly politicised, care must be taken to maintain security, uphold the constitution, and avoid backlash from extreme factions who feel undermined by the new law.

Prison Assault in Yemen, 21 AQAP Operatives released

13 February: Twenty-nine prisoners escaped from prison following an assault on a central prison complex in Sana’a, Yemen. Of those who escaped, 21 were known members of terror network, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), including explosive experts convicts suspected in the assassination attempt on Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi.

According to an anonymous Yemeni security official, “The group detonated the car bomb at the western wall of the prison, creating an approximately five-meter (16-foot) hole in the wall. They shot and killed the guards in this area, including using RPGs.” Immediately following, two groups of fighters exited cars and broke off into two units; a third group of fighters was stationed on nearby rooftops. As one unit fought with security guards outside the prison; the rooftop opened fire on the guards. The second unit then battled guards inside the prison. Seven soldiers were killed and four were injured. It is unknown whether members of the assault teams were injured.

Yemen has mobilized its security apparatus in efforts to recapture the prisoners. State media has published images of the criminals and called on citizens to contact officials if they see anything.

The assault is the latest in a series of security installation attacks occurring over several months. In mid-January, 10 soldiers were killed in coordinated attacks on three military outposts in the town of Rada’a in Baydah province. In December, a suicide team of AQAP fighters penetrated security at the Ministry of Defence in Sana’a, attempting to target US-led Ops Rooms for the drone program in Yemen. The assault killed 52 people. High-profile assaults were also conducted in September and October of 2013.

While no group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack, the nature of the break is consistent with AQAP. The strategy of combining suicide bombers and assault teams has been used by the group in the past. It is a common tactic among al-Qaeda linked allies, including portions of the Taliban and Boko-Haram. Further, AQAP emir and general manager, Nasir al Wuhaysi, released a statement in August 2013, in which he praises militants currently in prison, and vows that efforts will be made to release them.

Rockets Fired in Northern Mali

Military sources in Mali have confirmed that militants launched rockets during a night attack on the desert town of Timbuktu.  None of the intended targets were hit.  Over the past week, this is the second such to occur in northern Mali, resulting in heightened worry amongst officials as militants have vowed to carry out further attacks.  The latest incidents come days after the Red Cross confirmed that a team of five aid workers was kidnapped.

A senior Malian army officer stationed in Timbuktu has confirmed that three rockets were fired on Sunday night by “terrorists,” adding “fortunately there were no casualties.”  A source from the United Nations’ MINUSMA peacekeeping  force also confirmed that attack, which came three days after a similar assault on the northern town of Gao.  On 13 February, militants launched two rockets at a French army base in northern Mali.  The attack occurred during a visit by France’s top military officer.  The incident was later claimed by the militant group Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), which is a splinter group of al-Qaeda’s regional branch.  The militant group also warned that similar such attacks would continue to be carried out against the “enemies of Islam.”

Despite both incidents resulting in no casualties, the recent rise in attacks and incidents in northern Mali has nevertheless resulted in heightened concerns amongst local and international officials that security within the northern region continues to be unstable and may threaten the efforts made by the Malian government and international peacekeeping forces.  The attacks also demonstrate MUJAO’s, and similar militant groups, continued capabilities to carry out terrorist attacks.

The latest incidents in northern Mali come days after a group of five Malian Red Cross aid workers went missing on Saturday in an area between Kidal and Gao.  Last Tuesday, MUJAO’s leader confirmed that the militant group was responsible for the kidnapping, adding that the five Malians “are alive and in good health.”  So far the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has not indicated whether a ransom demand has been made.  The current whereabouts of the team are unknown.

Egypt Security Review

Tour Bus Attack in the Sinai

On Sunday, a tour bus was struck by an explosion, killing at least three people and wounding dozens. The busload of tourists was heading back from the famous St. Catherin’s Monastery and was in the border town of Taba, preparing to cross into Israel. At least two South Korean tourists and the Egyptian bus driver were killed. Nearly all 33 passengers were wounded, 12 suffered serious injuries. The attack has gone unclaimed. The border crossing at Taba between Egypt and Israel has since been closed.

Egyptian officials have varied on the cause of the explosion, with some reports indicating a car or bomb detonation, and others claiming that the explosive device was inside the bus. However, reports this morning indicate a suicide attack. According to Interior Ministry spokesman Hani Abdel-Latif, the driver and two South Koreans stepped out of the parked bus and went to the cargo hold. As they reboarded, the bomber pushed in through the open bus door and detonated his explosives.

Since July 2013, over 300 attacks have occurred in the Sinai Peninsula; however they have predominantly targeted security forces or gas pipelines in North Sinai. The bus attack is the first to target foreign tourists since the 2009 bombing in the famous Khan el-Khalili market which killed one and wounded 20. An attack against tourists in South Sinai has not taken place since 2006.

Some analysts believe that the attacks may have been carried out by militant Islamist group Ansar Jerusalem (Ansar Beit al Maqdis). A large portion of the attacks both in the Sinai Peninsula and in other areas of Egypt have been claimed by the group. On 13 February, Ansar Jerusalem released a video claiming responsibility for the 29 December bombing of a military intelligence building in the Sharqiya governorate. The bombing wounded at least 4 people, and came five days after a similar attack in Mansoura killed over a dozen people and injured more than 130. The video includes scenes of security forces attacking protestors, and points out assaults on female protesters, echoing previous complaints made by the group. Weeks earlier, Ansar Jerusalem released video of their members using a surface-to-air missile to take down an Egyptian helicopter operating in North Sinai, killing five soldiers.

Ansar Jerusalem has commonly targeted security forces and gas pipelines, but the group has warned in jihadist forums that it will target economic interests in response to military operations to eradicate terrorism in the Sinai. While it is possible that the attack on the bus was a one-time incident, there is heightened awareness that the bombing marks the beginning of a new angle of attack.

Tunnels Destroyed on Gaza Border

On Saturday, the Egyptian army destroyed ten tunnels on the border with the Gaza Strip in the Sinai Peninsula. In addition, seven homes that the tunnels led to were also destroyed. The destruction of the tunnels is part of Egypt’s continuing plan to create a buffer zone along the Gaza border. The zone is to extend 300 meters in populated areas and 500 meters in open areas.

Also on Saturday, three explosive devices were safely detonated by the Egyptian army. The devices were placed in military vehicles and armoured cars in Sheikh Zuwaid. The army has raided militant strongholds in the area.

Morsi Trial Postponed

Selim el-Awa, the lawyer representing former president Mohamed Morsi and 35 other Muslim Brotherhood figures, has withdrawn his defence team in objection to the soundproof glass box that the defendants are forced to remain in during court proceedings. The court has postponed the trial until 23 February.

The glass boxes were installed prevent Morsi and other Brotherhood figures from disrupting the trials in the manner they have since the courtroom procedures began last year. On Sunday, Morsi and other defendants chanted the Egyptian national anthem, and slogans against military rule.

Members of the defence team were invited into the glass boxes to ensure the defendants were able to hear the proceedings. However, the defence claimed that the trial was nearly inaudible in Morsi’s box, and completely inaudible in boxes used for other defendants. El Awa decided that his team will not attend future hearings until the boxes are removed. While the court announced it will appoint 10 new lawyers to the case, el Awa’s decision could invalidate the trial because he is the only lawyer authorised by Morsi and the other defendants.

Morsi and the other defendants are accused of working with foreign groups to commit acts of terrorism in Egypt, revealing defence secrets to a foreign country, funding terrorists and organising military training “to achieve the purposes of the international organisation of the Brotherhood.” Specifically, prosecution believes the defendants were collaborating with Hamas, Hezbollah, and other groups within and outside of Egypt to smuggle arms and train combatants in an attempt to threaten Egypt’s national security. The charges span from 2005 to 2013.

Sabbahi invites el Sisi to debate

On Saturday, Hamadeen Sabbahi, a leading leftist figure and the only person to announce candidacy Egypt’s  presidential elections, invited army chief Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi to engage in a live debate should el-Sisi decide to run. Sabbahi did add that he does not believe the army chief should run, but should rather opt to maintain his stature.

El-Sisi was appointed by Morsi and relatively unknown before his role in the removal of Morsi. Since July, he has grown exponentially popular and is widely expected, if he runs, to win the presidential elections by a landslide. However, Sabbahi has rejected this assertion: “It’s not a done deal as many think […] the people are capable of choosing [a candidate] based on their knowledge of history.”

He adds, “I am sure that the right decision after the revolution is to establish a state that serves the people, and not a state that is served by people.” Cautiously, Sabbahi highlighted that he would not allow competition with El Sisi over the presidency to turn into a face-off between revolutionary groups and the army.

Sabbahi, a former member of parliament, ran for president in 2012, finishing third behind Mohamed Morsi and ex-Mubarak premier Ahmed Shafiq. He is considered a leader in the revolution and an outspoken opponent of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Meanwhile, although el Sisi was empowered by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) to run for president, he not publicly stated his plans. Last week during a visit to Moscow to discuss a $2 billion arms deal, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated el Sisi on his undeclared intentions to run, escalating suspicions of his intentions.

Kidnapping targets Christian Children

In the past two weeks, at least 9 cases of Christians being kidnapped have been reported in the Minya province of Upper Egypt. The trend compared to last year, however, shows that younger people are being targeted for kidnapping.

Minya, with a 50% Christian population, has the highest percentage of Christians in Egypt. Christians make up approximately 10% of the Egyptian population. Kidnappers have a perception of wealth associated with the Christian population. This perception, coupled with weak security infrastructure in the region, makes residents in the region susceptible to kidnapping. In 2013, 69 kidnappings were documented from the Minya province alone. In 61 cases, kidnappers have received a ransom. Demands have ranged from $7,000 to $500,000. It is possible that kidnappers believe that families and communities will pay more, and more quickly, to see the release a younger child who has been kidnapped.

Creator of Pro-Brotherhood Facebook Page Arrested in Tanta

In a statement on their social media page, the Egyptian Ministry of Interior announced the arrest of a man who created the “Tanta Anti-Coup Movement” Facebook page. The page, which was created in August 2013, places blame on the interim government for the overthrow Mohammad Morsi in July. It has over 10,400 likes.

The statement labels the man, who was only identified by his initials and birth year, a “Muslim Brotherhood terrorist,” and announced that he was charged with “spreading false news, inciting violence against security forces,” and “spreading personal information of security officers.” Egyptian forces seized computers and flash-drives from the suspect’s home and an investigation is being conducted.

Textile Workers Strike Enters Second Week

Around 20,000 workers at the state-owned Holding Company for Cotton Spinning and Weaving in Mahalla continued their strike to demand demanding late wages, the resignation of company Chairman Abdel-Alim Hassan, and the replacement of the company’s commissioner, Abdel Fattah Al-Zoghby. The company has already lost between 15 and 20 million Egyptian pounds (EGP).

The workers are demanding late wages for two months, totalling 155 million EGP. Despite the new legislation setting the minimum monthly income for public employees at 1,200 EGP, there are thousands of workers that earn only 500 EGP a month. On Saturday, management promised workers that they would receive their bonuses by the evening, but the workers did not receive the wages, and so continued strike action.