MS Risk Blog

Security Update – Egypt

Egyptian courts have ruled that the national state of emergency ended at 4 pm on Tuesday 14 November. Curfews that have been in place since 14 August have been lifted. The curfew was in place shortly following the removal of former president Mohamed Morsi; economists are hopeful that the lifting of the curfew will result in a critical resurgence to the economy. Both the state of emergency and curfew were intended to last a month, however the government extended it for two more months on September 12. According to the Egyptian law, the government cannot extend a curfew beyond a three month period.

The Egyptian government is also in the process of drafting legislation to regulate demonstrations. To many activists, this is seen as a danger to their right to civil protests. The draft is currently in the hands of Interim President Adly Monsour, who in the absence of a parliament is the sole voice to decide on the issue.

Though the numbers have dwindled considerably, Morsi supporters have persisted in continuing demonstrations. On 11 November, protestors clashed with security forces at two universities north of Cairo on Tuesday. In Mansoura, four people were wounded in the clashes that also involved local residents. In Zagazig, five people were wounded clashes. Morsi, whose trial was delayed until January, remains in solitary confinement, reportedly at Burg el Arab prison in Alexandria. The former president will stand trial in connection to the killing of protesters outside of the presidential palace in December.

Meanwhile, Egyptians are awaiting a referendum on a new constitution, to take place in December. A 50- member committee has been tasked with evaluating and redesigning the current constitution, and have worked toward eliminating repressive passages, including restrictions on church construction. During Morsi’s tenure in office, he and his constitutional assembly, which were predominantly members of his Muslim Brotherhood party, developed a largely Islamist constitution, including a law that would make shari’a law, the Islamic legal system, applicable to the whole of Egypt.

Members of the Coptic Church, who comprise approximately 10% of the population, have felt that under the leadership of Morsi, the Christian population became increasingly marginalised. Following the removal of Morsi, the population was heavily targeted by Morsi supporters, including the destruction of Coptic owned properties and businesses.

Currently, the constitution has been redrafted to become increasingly secular. The committee eliminated a restriction that required Egypt’s Christians to obtain a presidential permit to build, repair or even renovate a church. Committee member Mohamed Abul-Ghar said, “Under a liberal constitution, all Egyptians, particularly Christians, must be allowed to build their own places of worship freely”. Still other proposals include suggestions to ban all political parties based upon religion.

Egypt is working to boost the economy with a tender for the development of the Suez Canal by the end of the month, in an effort to boost an economy struggling with political turmoil since 2011.

A spokesman for the project said, “No country is taking the lead, it is an Egyptian project and we are going to finalize the first stage by finalizing this tender by the end of this month.” Currently, Egypt’s economy benefits from about $5 billion a year in tolls for using the canal.

In addition, Egypt is also planning to launch an international tender in January to build its first nuclear power station. The development was announced on 14 November before talks with Russian officials on cooperation between the two countries. Egypt has suffered heavy fuel shortages since the 2011 uprising, which have placed a on power generating capabilities to the 85 million strong population, forcing power cuts and prompting energy-intensive industries to buy electricity from private suppliers at high prices. Former Trade and Industry Minister Hatem Saleh said in April that Russia had agreed to help Egypt develop atomic energy.

On 14 November, Russian and Egyptian senior officials met in Egypt to discuss military and economic cooperation between the two nations. While Egyptian officials have said that Egypt is not turning away from the United States, the meeting is a signal that the Egyptian government has options, with ties to Russian government going back several decades.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy downplayed speculation of a major foreign policy shift, saying, “We seek to energize a relationship that is already in existence,” and adding that Egypt is not looking for a “substitute for anyone”; Russia is too significant for such a role. Fahmy called the meeting an “activation” of existing ties and spoke of cooperation between the two countries “in multiple fields.”However the Egyptian government has expressed interest in purchasing Russian weaponry, in particular air defence missile systems and MiG-29 fighter jets, combat helicopters and other weapons. While there is speculation of how Egypt will afford the price tag of these items, an unnamed Egyptian military general close to army leadership said Egypt was close to signing a $2 billion deal with Russia for the purchase of 24 MiG fighter-jets as well as anti-tank missiles and an air-defence system.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shogiu, who vowed to develop military ties and increase bilateral contacts, said, “I expect to continue a constructive dialogue on the entire spectrum of military and military-technical issues.”

It is likely that the weaponry requested by Egypt is in an effort to continue pursuit of extremist networks, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula. Since the removal of Morsi on 3 July, the region has seen a significant increase in violence, particularly aimed at security forces. On Tuesday, Officer Tareq Mohamed Zaki was gunned down in North Sinai as he left a police station in Arish.

A security cordon has been placed around the police station to hunt down the attackers. Since July, hundreds of police and military troops have been targeted. The Egyptian army has responded with what military experts are calling the largest military operation on the peninsula since Egypt’s 1973 war with Israel, with the aim of combating “militancy and terrorism.”

Two US Sailors Freed; US State Department Designates Boko Haram Terrorist Group

Two American sailors, who were kidnapped off a vessel in the Gulf of Guinea last month, have been freed.  A spokeswoman for the US State Department has confirmed that the two men, a captain and chief engineer of the US-flagged C-Retriever oil supply ship, were freed over the weekend, adding that the men are safe and healthy and currently on their way home.  Although Jen Psaki provided no further details pertaining to the release of the two hostages, reports have indicated that the two men were freed after negotiations successfully yielded a ransom payment.  Details of the ransom payment are unknown.

The C-Retriever was stormed by armed men on 23 October near the coastal town of Brass, in Nigeria’s Bayelsa State.  The captain and chief engineer, whose names have been withheld for privacy reasons, were then kidnapped by the attackers.  Last week, the 222-foot oil supply ship, which is owned by a Louisiana firm, was tracked near the outskirts of the Port of Onne, where it sat in the water apparently abandoned.  So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Meanwhile the US State Department has designated Nigeria’s Boko Haram and Ansaru militant groups as foreign terrorist organizations, a move that is likely to be welcomed by the Nigerian government who has been battling Boko Haram for years.  Officials at the State Department have described the move as “an important” step in helping Nigeria “root out violent extremism.”   Up to now, the Obama administration had refused to designate the militant group as a terrorist organization, fearing that the title would provide Boko Haram greater legitimacy within global jihadi circles.  While the State Department designated three alleged Boko Haram leaders as terrorists, it did not declare the militant group a terrorist organization.  With terrorist splinter groups threatening the Sahel region, one of the reasons behind the US decision to designate Boko Haram as a foreign terrorist organization is the fact that US officials have cited links to al-Qaeda’s affiliates in West Africa and to extremist groups in Mali.  In turn, while Boko Haram was initially viewed as an organization which only posed a domestic threat, another reason why the US had not previously designated it as a terrorist organization, over the last three years, as its attacks have intensified, there have been signs that Boko Haram is now focusing on a more international agenda.

The move to designate Boko Haram and Ansaru as foreign terrorist organizations is significant as it effectively means that US regulatory agencies will be instructed to block all business and financial transactions with Boko Haram.  It will also become a crime under US law to provide material support to the group.  However it is unlikely that the US will attempt to identify Boko Haram’s financial backers, an undertaking which the Nigerian government has up to now failed to achieve.

Boko Haram, which began its insurgency in 2009, desires to impose Islamic law in northern Nigeria.  Since the beginning of its insurgency, the militant group has been blamed for thousands of deaths, targeting both the military and civilians.  The Islamist group is responsible for the 2011 bombing of the United Nation headquarters in Abuja.  The militant group, and other splinter terrorist groups, are seen as being the largest security threat in Nigeria.  Despite an ongoing military campaign, which was launched by President Goodluck Jonathan in May of this year, and which was recently extended for an additional six months, the militant group has continued to carry out its attacks throughout northern Nigeria.  In one of the most recent incidents, fighters dressed in military uniform killed nineteen motorists after blocking a highway in the northeast of the country.

Ansaru was formed in January 2012 however it only rose to prominence about six months later after a video was released in which the militant group vowed to attack Westerners in defense of Muslims worldwide.  While the group, which is based in Nigeria and seen as an off-shoot of Boko Haram, has had a short existence, it has nevertheless proved to be a threat, using dynamite to penetrate heavily-fortified compounds and taking foreigners hostage.

Two months after being formed, officials in the UK indicated that Ansaru’s militants had killed a Briton and an Italian hostage who had been kidnapped in the northwestern state of Sokoto.  In December 2012, following an attack on a well-guarded compound in the northern town of Rimi, Ansaru claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of a French national, Francis Colump.  It carried out a similar attack in February 2013 when seven foreign nationals were captured from a housing compound owned by a Lebanese construction company.

Senior Haqqani Network Leader Killed in Pakistan

Two days ago, on Monday November 11^th, Nasiruddin Haqqani, a senior member of the leadership of the Haqqani network was assassinated in Islamabad. The exact circumstances of his death, perpetrators of the attack and the subsequent removal of his body back to Waziristan remain mysterious. The Haqqani network, while based in Pakistan, is one of the major factions (and most capable) of the Afghani Taliban fighting ISAF forces in Afghanistan. The killing comes at a sensitive time for Pakistan – the leader of the Pakistani Taliban (or TTP) Hakimullah Mehsud was killed earlier this month in a drone strike, and the nascent peace process in the country appears to be on hold for the foreseeable future.

Nasiruddin Haqqani was the son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, the group’s founder and a noted commander in the anti-Soviet fighting of the 1980s. His brother, Sirajuddin, is the day-to-day operational commander of the group. Nasiruddin’s primary responsibility appears to have been as the group’s financier, responsible for business ventures, outreach and fundraising abroad. This reportedly included numerous trips to the Middle East and the Gulf region in recent years.

Nasiruddin was returning home from a mosque through the district of Baru Kahu suburb of Islamabad when multiple gunmen on motorcycles shot him, also killing an innocent bystander. Local authorities originally denied that Nasiruddin had been killed, or was even present, as his body was spirited six hours away, and past numerous military checkpoints, to Waziristan.

Pakistan has long been accused of supporting the Haqqani network, something that would explain why such a senior leader could apparently live unmolested in Islamabad for several years. While the TTP aim to overthrow the Pakistani state, the Afghani Taliban retain close connections with the Pakistani security forces, who use them counter Indian influence in Afghanistan. The Haqqani network in particular has been labelled in the past as being veritable arms of the Pakistani military intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI). The Haqqani Network is considered the most dangerous of the Afghani Taliban factions, and has been responsible for numerous high profile attacks in Kabul in recent years.

The killing comes at a particular problematic time for Pakistan’s security situation. Nasiruddin was reportedly involved in facilitating dialogue and potential peace talks between the TTP and the Pakistani government. These talks were apparently on the verge of beginning when the TTP leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, was killed in a US drone strike. At first, it appeared that Khan Said Sajna, a powerful subordinate in favour of peace talks, would ascend to the leadership with reports even confirming he had been appointed. However, another leader, Mullah Fazlullah eventually emerged as the TTP’s new leader. Fazlullah reportedly rejects peace talks with the Pakistani state, and his appointment has likely crushed any serious chance of dialogue for the foreseeable future.

Security forces across Pakistan are on alert, with the possibility of revenge attacks in the country extremely high. Several Taliban fighters were killed in a shootout with police in Karachi today. The Ashura gatherings, an important part of the Shia Muslim religious calendar, begin on the 15^th of November. With Shia Muslims a common target of terrorist attacks, this period is usually a tense time for Pakistan that sees thousands of troops deployed to ensure order, with the threat of violence even higher this year due to recent events.

Global Piracy Report

SOMALIA

At Sea

Just weeks after Operation Commander of the EU Naval Force, Rear Admiral Bob Tarrant, issued a warning about the ongoing threat from piracy, there have been two more piracy-related incidents that have occurred off the coat of Somalia.  The first incident occurred on 5 November, when EU Naval Force German frigate, FGS Niedersachsen prevented ten suspected pirates from getting far out to sea.  During a piracy patrol, the FGS Niedersachsen located two small vessels, a whaler towing a skiff, close to the Somali coast.  The warship’s crew members were able to observe that the whaler was carrying ten pirates along with over ten fuel barrels and two long ladders.  When the German frigate approached the whaler in order to carry out a further investigation, crew members observed the men dropping ladders into the sea before heading back towards the shoreline.  While the whaler made its approach towards the beach, approximately eighty people were seen on land, with some wading out in order to assist the pirates in bring the boats back onto the beach.  The German frigate continues to monitor the beach, which quickly became deserted after the incident.  The second incident occurred on 6 November when a merchant ship, located 460 miles south-east of Mogadishu, had to repel an attack from five armed pirates.  A Hong Kong-flagged chemical tanker, enroute from Saudi Arabia to Mozambique, was fired upon by five pirates in a fast-moving skiff.  The private armed security team on board the vessel was able to repel the attack.  Naval forces immediately closed the sea area in an attempt to locate the suspects.  In light of these two incidents, Rear Admiral Bob Tarrant has stated that “it is clear that Somali pirates still have the intent and capability to get out to sea to attack ships and take crews for ransom.  These attacks not only cause misery to ships‘ crews and their families, they also generate instability in world trade and humanitarian aid routes.  Naval counter piracy forces and the maritime shipping industry must remain vigilant so that these pirates do not succeed.”

Hijacks

• None reported during this period.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

• 9 November 2013 – A merchant vessel was attacked in position 07:20S – 048:37E, approximately 278 nautical miles north of Madagascar at 1400 UTC.  Merchant vessels are advised to proceed with caution when traversing the area.
• 6 November 2013 – Hong Kong-flagged product tanker, Zhongji No. 1, reported being attacked at 0330 UTC in position 05:31S – 047:07E, approximately 400 nautical miles north of Madagascar.  One skiff had five pirates on board, with ladders signed.  Suspected pirates were also heavily armed.  The alarm on board the tanker was raised, crew members alerted, fire pumps started, speed increased, evasive maneuvers made, SSAS alert activated and authorities informed.  The pirates fired at the tanker and the armed security team on board returned fire.  The skiff later aborted the attack and moved away.  The vessel and crew members are reported safe.
• 2 November 2013 (Late Report) – India-flagged oil tanker, Desh Mahima, reported being approached by three suspicious skiffs travelling at a high speed at 1614 UTC in position 14:34N – 042:10E, heading 330 deg 12 knots.  Six pirates on board each skiff were sighted along with ladders.  The Master of the vessel order increase of speed, activated the SSAS, mustered the crew members into the citadel, used evasive maneuvers and anti-piracy measures, including the firing of flares.  The resulted in the skiffs moving away from the vessel.
• 27 October 2013 (Late Report) – Bulk carrier was approached by two skiffs at 1120 UTC in position 13:15N – 043:01E, Gulf of Aden.  Skiffs were colored white and blue, with five to six pirates on board each skiff.  The skiffs closed to 100m.  Ladders, described as 10m long with hooks on one end, were sighted on board the skiffs.  Armed security team on board the vessel displayed their weapons, resulting in the skiffs moving away.  Vessel and crew members have been reported safe.

Suspicious Activity

• 8 November 2013 – Bahamas-flagged oil tanker reported two suspicious skiffs approached port side at fast speeds at 1115 UTC while in position 17:52.37N – 056:56.45E, approximately 30 nautical miles off the coast of Oman.  Armed security team on board the vessel stood to, showing their presence in front of the bridge as the vessel implemented security measures.  Skiffs continued to approach the tanker to around 200 meters.  A total of seven pirates were seen on board the skiffs, which closed to 100 meters.  However no weapons were observed onboard the skiffs.  Armed security team displayed their weapons, resulting in the skiffs moving towards the starboard side.  The skiffs later moved towards the stern and were monitored until out of range at 1145 UTC.

GULF OF GUINEA

At Sea

Hijacks

• None reported during this period.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

• None reported during this period.

 SOUTHEAST ASIA

At Sea

Hijacks

• 7 November 2013 – Ten pirates armed with guns and knives boarded and hijacked a Panama-flagged oil tanker, GPT 21, underway at 0330 LT in position 01:20.6N – 103:18.2E, around 7.3 nautical miles west of Pulau Kukup, Malaysia.  The pirates tied up all the crew members and held them hostage in one cabin.  They later ordered the Master to steer the ship to a pre-designated position.  Another unknown orange-hulled tanker came alongside and the pirates forced the C/O to use the cargo pumps, valves and mooring winches to transfer the oil into the unknown tanker.  At around 1600 LT, the pirates disembarked after transferring and stealing all the gas oil on board the GPT 21.  Prior to leaving, the pirates also stole the crew members personal belongings.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

• 4 November 2013 – Duty crew on board an anchored chemical tanker spotted two boats nearby at 1230 LT in position 03:54N – 098:46E, Belawan Anchorage, Indonesia.  Robbers attempted to board the tanker via anchor chain but alerted crew thwarted the boarding.  A second boat, which was hidden near the propeller, could not be chased away by crew members who were using the fire hoses.  The propeller was turned on, resulting in the robbers moving away.  The robbers were spotted with some stolen hull anodes in their boat.  Port Control was informed of the incident.
• 2 November 2013 (Late Report) – Fifteen armed robbers boarded an anchored Indian-flagged container ship, Jindal Tara, at 0330 LT in position 21:40N – 088:01E, Sagar Anchorage, India.  D/O noticed the robbers stealing the ship’s stores and raised the alarm.  Seeing the alerted crew, the robbers jumped overboard and escaped.
• 23 October 2013 (Late Report) – While at anchor, robbers boarded a Denmark-flagged chemical tanker, Torm Fox, at 0025 LT in position 07:06S – 112:40 E, Gresik Inner anchorage, Surabaya, Indonesia.  The roving patrol shouted at the robbers upon seeing them.  The forward horn was sounded and the crew members were informed about the robbers.  The robbers immediately escaped in a small boat.  An inspection was conducted in order to check for stowaways and damages.
• 22 October 2013 (Late Report) – While at anchor, robbers boarded a Thailand-flagged LPG tanker, Senna 3, at 1545 LT in position 22:49.80N – 070:06.30E, Kandla Port anchorage, India.  Robbers boarded the vessel from the starboard bow.  Upon discovering the robbers, the emergency alarm was raised and the crew members attempted to expel the robbers.  The robbers threatened the crew with a knife before escaping.  Cash and the ship’s spare parts were stolen.
• 21 October 2013 (Late Report) – While at anchor, robbers boarded a Singapore-flagged tun, Svitzer Kallang, at 0300 LT in position 01:22.73N – 104:42.24E, approximately 11.7 nautical miles northeast of Tanjung Berakit, Pulau Bintan, Indonesia.  Robbers were discovered by the Master in the mess room.  The robbers threatened him with an iron lance, later escaping with a laptop, portable welding machine, fire axe, generator spare parts and filters.  Following the incident, the Master raised the general alarm and the crew members conducted security patrols.  SPOCC initiated a broadcast to alert mariners.  The Police Coast Guard and Singapore Navy were informed of the incident.  
• 17 October 2013 (Late Report) – While underway, robbers from two small crafts boarded a Panama-flagged tug, Miclyn Opal, at 1320 UTC in position 01:13.79N – 104:04.62E, approximately 1.45 nautical miles North of Pulau Nongsa (Batam), Indonesia.  Robbers boarded astern of the barge that was being towed and stole the emergency towing wire.  The Singapore Navy was informed of the incident.
• 12 October 2013 (Late Report) – While underway, robbers boarded a Saint Barthelemy (France)-flagged barge carrier, Westsea 95, at 0235 LT in position 01:14N – 103:59E, Eastbound lane of Singapore Strait (TSS) while being towed by a tugboat on route to Lampung, Indonesia.  All crew members were mustered to the accommodation deck.  Master instructed the crew to lock the watertight door and entrance of the tug boat from inside.  The roving patrol shouted at the robbers.  After being noticed by the crew in the tugboat, the robbers escaped onboard a small boat and took with them a stern railing, emergency tow line and a Norwegian buoy.

Nigeria Extends Emergency Rule As Officials Look To Cameroon in Bid to Police Borders

Goodluck Jonathan’s request for an extension of the state of emergency has been granted by Nigerian lawmakers.

Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan requested earlier this week that lawmakers extend a state of emergency, which was initially declared in the northeastern region in May 2013.  On Thursday, that request was approved when senators unanimously backed Jonathan’s request and agreed “to extend the state of emergency in Adamawa, Borno and Yobe states on the same terms and conditions.”  As such, the emergency rule in the three northeastern states will be extended for a further six months as of 12 November 2013.

Earlier this week, the president had requested that lawmakers extend the state of emergency, citing that the Islamist insurgency had not yet been contained.  In a letter sent by the President to lawmakers in both chambers of Nigeria’s parliament, Jonathan stated that “we have achieved considerable successes in containing the activities of the terrorist elements….However, some security challenges still exist.”

In May of this year, the President enforced emergency measures in the northern states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe, regions of the country where he stated Boko Haram insurgents had seized territory, chased out local officials and effectively threatened Nigeria’s sovereignty.  On 15 May, one day after the state of emergency was imposed, Nigeria’s military announced the launch of a massive operation aimed at permanently ending the uprising.  Since then, mobile communications in the northern regions of Nigeria have been cut off, making it difficult to attain and confirm reports pertaining to ongoing attacks.  In turn, while thousands of additional troops and air power have since been deployed to the region, in a bid to curb attacks, the success of the military offensive remains uncertain.

Although the military has described Boko Haram as being in a state of disarray and on the defensive, the fact that hundreds of civilians have been killed by the terrorist group in recent weeks has cast doubts on these claims.  Furthermore, although the attacks appear to have partly shifted out of the major cities and into the more remote areas of the country, the number, scale and brutality of the attacks has remained unchanged.  In turn, the ongoing military operations have pushed Boko Haram militants further outward and away from their main stronghold of Maiduguri.  This has resulted in attacks spanning a wider region and has demonstrated the militant group’s capabilities in reorganization and resilience.  This has forced officials in Nigeria to look beyond its borders, a fact that was demonstrated this week when officials requested that Cameroon aid the Nigerian military in policing the shared border.  Many believe that the military operations have forced Boko Haram fightes into Nigeria’s north, towards the border with Niger and into the remote hills that border Cameroon.

While lawmakers swiftly approved Jonathan’s initial request for a state of emergency back in May, many officials believed that securing the extension would prove to be difficult.  While continuing massacres around Borno and Yobe may provided political justification for an extension, a bid to extend emergency rule in the state of Adamawa was seen as being “problematic,” as the area has seen far less violence than Borno and Yobe, and locals have been growing increasingly frustrated with the situation.