MS Risk Blog

Barack Obama Announces Changes To IC Spy Programme

In light of last year’s Snowden intelligence leaks, United States President Barack Obama is expected to order the National Security Agency (NSA) to stop storing data from Americans’ phones.   After initially defending the US surveillance programme, in August, the president announced that the US “can and must be more transparent” about its intelligence gathering.

Reports in Washington have indicated that during a speech set for Friday, which is scheduled to take place at the Department of Justice at 11:00 (1600 GMT), President Obama will request Congress to arrange how data is stored and how the US Intelligence Community (IC) will have access to it.   The storing of phone data is just the first in a number of planned changes to the intelligence system that the president is due to announce.  The proposed changes within the IC and how the community gathers its intelligence stem from former intelligence worker Edward Snowden’s continued leaks of information pertaining to the NSA’s spying programme.  The latest revelations made by Mr Snowden, who is wanted for espionage in the US and now lives in exile in Russia, claim that US intelligence agencies have collected and stored 200 million text messages every day across the globe.  According to Mr Snowden, an NSA programme, known as Dishfire, was responsible for extracting and storing data from SMS messages in order to gather location information, contacts and financial data.  The information was later shared with the United Kingdom’s spy agency GCHQ.  While both agencies have defended their activities, stating that they operate within the constraints of the law, many advocates and civil rights groups have called on greater transparency.

President Obama is expected to approve a number of recommendations put forth by a panel that the White House commissioned last year.  If approved, the centrepiece of reforms will be an order to stop the NSA from storing Americans’ phone records.  Storage of such data will instead fall to firms or another third party where it can be queried, however under limited conditions.  In terms of how this will be implemented, the president is expected to leave this decision to Congress and the IC.

Amongst the other proposals that are likely to be approved is the creation of a public advocate position at the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC), where government agencies request permission for mass spying programmes.  Currently, only the US government is represented in front of FISC judges.   In turn, Mr Obama is also expected to extend some privacy protections for foreigners, increase oversight of how the US monitors foreign leaders and limit how long some data can be stored.

According to White House spokesman Jay Carney, the aim of these proposals and changes is to make intelligence activities “more transparent,” adding that this would “give the public more confidence about the problems and the oversight of the programmes.”  However while in the wake of the Snowden leaks, civil rights groups have been requesting significant reductions to powers that government agencies have with respect to the collection of data, many believe that these latest proposals appear to be structured in a manner of broad rules, effectively meaning that they will do little to limit the intelligence-gathering activities of the US IC.

Edward Snowden and the Leaks that Exposed US Intelligence Programme

In May 2013, Edward Snowden, a former contractor of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) left the US shortly after leaking to the media details of extensive internet and phone surveillance carried out by the US IC.   Mr Snowden, who has been granted temporary asylum in Russia, faces espionage charges in the US over his action.

By early June, the scandal of the US spy programme broke when the UK Guardian newspaper reported that the NSA was collecting telephone records of tens of millions of Americans.  At the time, the newspaper published the secret court order, which directed telecommunications company Verizon to hand over all its telephone data to the NSA on an “on going daily basis.”  The newspaper report was later followed by revelations in both the Guardian and Washington Post that the NSA had tapped directly into the servers of nine Internet firms, including Google, Yahoo, Facebook and Microsoft.  This was done in order to track online communication through a surveillance programme known as Prism.  At the time, Britain’s GCHQ was also accused of having gathered information on Internet companies through Prism.

Several days later, it was revealed that Mr Snowden, a former CIA systems analyst, was behind the leaks pertaining to the US and UK surveillance programmes.  He was later charged by US authorities with theft of government property, unauthorized communication of national defence information and wilful communication of classified communications intelligence.

The spy scandal continued to develop when on 21 June, the Guardian reported that officials at GCHQ were taping fibre-optic cables, responsible for carrying global communications, and sharing vast amounts of data with the NSA.  At the time, the paper also revealed that it had obtained documents from Mr Snowden, which indicated that the GCHQ operation, codenamed Tempora, had already been running for eighteen months.   According to reports, GCHQ was able to monitor up to 600 million communications every day throughout that period, with information gathered from the Internet and phone use allegedly being stored for a period of thirty days where it would be sifted and analysed.

A week later, on 29 June, claims by Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine emerged that the NSA has also spied on European Union (EU) officials in the US and in Europe.  At the time, the magazine reported that it had seen leaked NSA documents confirming that the US had spied on EU internal computer networks in Washington and at the 27-member bloc’s UN office in New York.  The files, all provided by Mr Snowden, also allegedly suggested that the NSA had conducted an electronic eavesdropping operation in a building in Brussels, where the EU Council of Ministers and the European Council were located.  While it remains unknown as to what information the US IC may have obtained in the operation, reports have suggested that details pertaining to European positions on trade and military matters may have been obtained.

On 24 October, Italian weekly L’Espresso reported that the NSA and GCHQ had been eavesdropping on Italian phone calls and Internet traffic.  The revelations were later sourced to Mr Snowden.  It is alleged that three undersea cables with terminals in Italy were targeted in the operation.  That same day, the German government summoned the US ambassador after German media reported that the NSA had eavesdropped on Chancellor Angela Merkel’s mobile phone.

French President Francois Hollande also expressed alarm at reports that millions of French calls had been monitored by the US.  In all, the Guardian later reported that the NSA had monitored the phone calls of thirty-five world leaders.  In turn, according to a secret file leaked to the Guardian, a total of thirty-eight embassies and missions had been the “targets” of US spying operations.  On 1 July, it was reported that amongst those countries targeted by the operations were France, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea and India.  EU embassies and missions both in Washington and New York were also reported to be under surveillance.

On 10 July, it was revealed by Brazil’s O Globo newspaper that the NSA had ran a continent-wide surveillance programme.  At the time, the newspaper had cited leaked documents which indicated that at least until 2002, the NSA had ran the operation from a base in Brasilia, seizing web traffic and details of phone calls from around the region.  The newspaper further indicated that US agents worked with Brazilian telecoms firms in order to eavesdrop on oil and energy firms, foreign visitors to Brazil and major players in Mexico’s drug wars.   By September, specific claims that the emails and phone calls of the presidents of Brazil and Mexico had been intercepted were revealed.  This prompted Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff to cancel a state visit to the US, the first high-profile diplomatic move since the scandal unfolded.

By mid-August, documents leaked to the Washington Post revealed that the NSA broke US privacy laws hundreds of times every year.   Later that month, the Washington Post reported that the US IC had a “black budget” for secret operations, which in 2013 had amounted to US $53 billion.

After fleeing to Hong Kong, Edward Snowden confirmed to the South China Morning Post that the NSA had led more than 61,000 hacking operations worldwide, which included many operations in Hong Kong and mainland China.  He indicated that targets in Hong Kong had included the Chinese University along with public officials and businesses.

Piracy at Lowest Level in Six Years; Westgate Trial Commences in Kenya

Piracy at sea is at its lowest level in six years, with 264 attacks recorded, a 40% drop since Somali piracy peaked in 2011.

The drop in worldwide piracy attacks has greatly been due to the dramatic drop of incidents recorded in waters off Somalia.  In 2013, the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) reported fifteen incidents off Somalia.  According to its records, this is down from 75 in 2012 and 237 in 2011.  The increase of armed guards on vessels, coupled with international navy patrols and the “stabilizing influence” of Somalia’s government have aided in deterring pirate.   According to Pottengal Mukundan, IMB’s director, “the single biggest reason for the drop in worldwide piracy is the decrease in Somali piracy off the coast of East Africa,” adding that “it is imperative to continue combined international efforts to tackle Somali piracy.  Any complacency at this stage could re-kindle pirate activity.”

The IMB’s annual global piracy report has indicated that more than 300 people were taken hostage at sea in 2013 and 21 were injured, nearly all with guns or knives.

Examining global piracy figures, Indonesia witnessed the most pirate attacks last year, accounting for more than 50 of all reported incidents.  However it must be noted that attacks in waters of Indonesia were “low-level opportunistic thefts, not to be compared with the more serious incidents off Africa.”  Piracy off West Africa made up 19% of attacks worldwide in 2013.  According to the IMB report, Nigerian pirates accounted for 31 of the region’s 51 attacks.  These attacks were “particularly violent,” with one crew member killed, and thirty-six people kidnapped and held onshore for ransom.

In November 2013, a United Nations and World Bank report indicated that pirates operating off the Horn of Africa, which are some of the world’s busiest shipping and humanitarian aid routes, had netted more than US $400 million (£251 million) in ransom money between 2005 and 2012.

Meanwhile in neighboring Kenya, the trial of four men charged over the Westgate shopping centre siege began in Kenya’s capital Nairobi.

The four suspected foreigners have denied the charges of aiding a “terrorist group,” and of being in Kenya illegally.  However none of the  men – named as Mohammed Ahmed Abdi, Liban Abdullah, Adnan Ibrahim, and Hussein Hassan – have been accused of being the gunmen who carried out the attack.  While their nationalities have not been disclosed, they are said to be ethnic Somalis.

Police officials in Kenya have also indicated that the four accused had sheltered the attackers in their homes in Eastleigh a Somali neighbourhood in Nairobi, and that they were in contact with the gunmen four days prior to the siege being carried out.

During the first day of the trial, the court heard testimony from security guards who saw what happened when the gunmen launched the attack in September 2013, killing at least sixty-seven people.  During his testimony, guard Stephen Juma told the court that he had been directing traffic outside the upmarket shopping centre when a car pulled up and three men jumped out.  According to Mr Juma, one of them immediately shot dead a shopper, adding that “I began to hear gunshots, I made a radio call for help while running to the main entrance.”  Mr Juma further noted that he could not identify any of the gunmen as their heads and faces had been covered with black headscarves.

The four are the first to be charged over the attack, which was the worst in Kenya since 224 people were killed in the 1998 bombing of the US embassy.  Reports have indicated that around forty witnesses are expected to give evidence at the trial, which is likely to last around a week.

Somalia’s al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab confirmed days after the siege at they were behind the attack, indicating that one of its suicide brigades carried out the siege.  Although al-Shabaab is fighting for the creation of an Islamic state in Somalia, the militant group has on numerous occasions carried out attacks in neighboring Kenya in a bid to avenge the presence of Kenyan troops in Somalia to bolster the UN-backed central government.

Car Bombing in Maiduguri, Nigeria

A car bomb has exploded in the north eastern Nigerian city of Maiduguri, with fears that the latest attack to target the region has left many casualties.

At least seventeen people were killed on Tuesday when an explosion targeted a busy market on the public holiday that marks the birth of the Prophet Mohammed.  Police officials have indicated that the explosion occurred at about 1:30 PM (1230 GMT) around the post office area of Maiduguri, which has been hit previously by Boko Haram militants.  According to Lawan Tanko, police chief for Borno state, “from our preliminary reports, we have 17 dead and at least five injured from the blast in the post office area,” however he warned that the toll could rise as casualties were taken from the bustling market to medical centres for treatment, adding that “these figures are likely to change by the time we get full reports from our men in the field.

Initial reports at the scene suggest that the blast was caused by either a car bomb or suicide bomber, however there has not yet been any confirmations from the authorities.  Police Chief Tanko has noted that “the bomb was detonated in the midst of a large crowd of traders while a truck carrying firewood was passing by.”  A witness to the bombing stated that “an explosive device concealed in a sack was abandoned near a butcher’s stall by unknown persons around Kasuwar Jagwal.”

The explosion caused panic in the city, where residents were in the midst of celebrating Eid Milad un Nabi.  While the market has since been closed, with police officers carrying out investigations, the rest of the city remains on high alert as possible attacks and suicide bombings may be carried out in the coming days.

Over the past several weeks, Maiduguri has witnessed a number of attacks.  On 2 December 2013, the northern spiritual home city of Boko Haram was raided by Boko Haram insurgents who burnt aircraft, seized weapons and razed buildings at military bases throughout the city.  On Sunday, suspected Boko Haram gunmen killed five at a village market located 22 kilometres from Maiduguri.  During the attack, the militants burnt cars, shops and tents storing grain.

US Envoy Meets with Rebel Leader in South Sudan: Calm Restored in CAR

Efforts to broker a ceasefire in South Sudan continue as a United States special envoy, along with other mediators, hold a meeting with rebel leader Riek Machar.

Reports have indicated that US special envoy Donald Booth met with Mr Machar at an undisclosed location in South Sudan.  Mr Booth later indicated that mediators would continue to press for the release of jailed associates of Mr Machar for them to attend peace talks in Ethiopia.  A rebel spokesman has also indicated that a ceasefire would be signed if Mr Machar’s associates were freed.  Hussein Mar Nyout has also dismissed claims made by the South Sudanese government that is forces were now in full control of Unity State.  He also described as baseless a government allegation that forces loyal to Mr Machar had damaged oil facilities there.

Calm Restored in the Central African Republic Following Leaders Departure

In the Central African Republic, after weeks of sectarian clashes, restive calm has returned to the streets Bangui, with banks, offices and markets re-opening.  The country’s interim leader has also announced that the days of looting and revenge attacks were over.

Sources on the ground have reported that local residents of Bangui now feel safe enough to leave their homes across the city.  The police have also returned to the streets while some local residents have stated that the city is the busiest it has been for a year.  Many believe that this feels like a turning point as in recent weeks, there has always been at least one district, whether Muslim or Christian, where violence has resulted in people staying at home.

Following the rebel leader’s resignation on Friday, interim leader and speaker of the provisional parliament Alexandre-Ferdinand Nguendet vowed that the “anarchy” that has gripped the country would be swiftly brought to an end, adding that “the chaos is over, the pillaging is over, the revenge attacks are over.”  He also issued a stern warning to warring militiamen from the Seleka group and the anti-balaka Christian fighters set up to oppose them.  Speaking at a police headquarters in the capital Bangui, he stated “to the ex-Seleka, to the anti-balaka and the lovers of looting, I’m giving you a severe warning:  The party is over.”

The return of soldiers and police to duty was another encouraging sign for the CAR after weeks of horrific sectarian violence.   Over the weekend, hundreds of people lined up to re-enlist in the army, following an appeal from the chief of staff.  Many of them had either deserted after the rebel takeover, or left in order to join the vigilante groups.

In recent months, the capital city has been riven by sectarian violence, with about 20% of the 4.6 million population said to have fled their homes.

Following months of fighting, Michel Djotodia seized power in March 2013, effectively becoming the CAR’s first Muslim leader.  Although he later disbanded his Seleka rebels, attacks on Christian civilians around the country continued, prompting the formation of vigilante groups, which targeted Muslims.  On 10 January 2014, following intense pressure from the CAR’s neighbor’s, Michel Djotodia, along with Prime Minister Nicholas Tiengaye, stepped down.  The transitional national council now has two weeks in order to select a new President.

While the situation in Bangui is calm, the mood could quickly turn.  On Monday, the Redo Cross reported that about fifteen people were killed ove the weekend, confirming that a degree of tension throughout the country

The CAR’s interim President and Prime Minister Resign

The Central African Republic’s President Michel Djotodia has resigned at a regional summit that is aimed at ending the violence that has engulfed the country.  Prime Minister Nicolas Tiengay has also announced his resignation.  The announcement, which was released in a statement by the ten-nation Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), was met with jubilant scenes throughout the CAR’s capital city Bangui.  Shortly after the announcement was made, French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called for a replacement for Mr. Dojotida “as soon as possible.”  On the ground in the CAR, French tanks have deployed around the presidential palace in Bangui in order to prevent protests.

Sources have indicated that on Friday, just before 0300 GMT, the regional leaders suspended their talks and requested that the CAR interim parliament draft a deal for President Djotodia and Prime Minister Nicolas Tiengae to step down.  Over the past few weeks, Djotodia has come under fire for failing to stem the spiralling violence between mainly Muslim former rebels who brought him to power last year and militias formed by the Christian majority.  Although he is due to step down when a transition period expires in a year’s time, his inability to rein in chaos across the country has prompted calls for a swifter change in leadership.

Over the past few days, regional leaders, and the CAR’s entire parliament, gathered in neighbouring Chad in a bid to end sectarian violence that has engulfed the country.  Chadian President Idriss Deby, who had stark words, seen by many as a push to remove Djotodia, or at least to curb his powers, opened the summit.  During his opening statement on Thursday, Chad’s president indicated that “the CAR is suffering deploy from the actions of its own sons, who are dragging their country down into a war that jeopardises its future.”  President Deby called for “concrete and decisive action” to halt the violence that has pitted Muslims against Christian self-defence militias and which has resulted in the death of more than 1,000 people in the past month.  On Thursday, ECCAS secretary general Allami Ahmat, a former Chadian foreign minister, stated “the solution must come from the Central Africans themselves,” adding that “neither ECCAS nor the international community have come to change the regime….It is up to those responsible (in the CAR) to decide the fate of their country.”  All 135 lawmakers from the CAR flew to Chad on Thursday, where they were ordered by African leaders at the summit to draw up a proposal on their president Michel Djotodia’s future.  As the high-stake talks took place in N’Djamena, thousands of residents in the Central African capital Bangui took to the streets, demanding that Djotodia resign.  Regional leaders are anxious to stem the crisis as there are fears that the unrest extends beyond the CAR’s borders.  Officials at the United Nations have warned that both ex-Seleka rebels and CAR former solders have crossed into the volatile Democratic Republic of Congo, causing local residents to flee.

Mr. Djotodia, the CAR’s first Muslim leader, seized power in March of last yea.  Since then, twenty per cent of the population have fled their homes amidst intense fighting between Christian and Muslim militias.  Since December 2013, and the arrival of more region peacekeepers and French troops, around 1,000 people have died in sectarian clashes.  Many villages are now deserted and over the past month, the number of those who have fled the home has doubled, including almost half of those living in the capital Bangui.    Furthermore, while mass slaughters have mostly ceased in Bangui itself, amidst frequent patrols carried out by peacekeepers, sporadic killings carry on almost every night.  Officials at the United Nations have warned of an impending humanitarian disaster.  Some 100,000 people have set up camp in one tent city near Bangui airport, close to the peacekeepers base.  UNICEF has warned of a potential disaster in overcrowded camps in and around the capital city, where thee have already been several cases of measles, which could be deadly.

European Union nation states are considering whether to join in the French and African peacekeeping operations in the country, with a meeting on the issue scheduled for Friday.