MS Risk Blog

Al-Shabaab Carry Out Further Attacks in Mogadishu

Posted on in Somalia title_rule

On Thursday, a car bomb exploded near a café in Somalia’s capital city Mogadishu.  The explosion occurred in an area close to the intelligence headquarters, with police officials indicating that at least seven people were killed.  Sources have indicated that the café, which is located near the city’s Lido beach, was reportedly popular with security officials.

Police official Ahmed Mumin confirmed the explosion, stating “we have counted twelve civilians killed in the car bomb, but the toll could be higher as many people were also wounded.” Eight other people were wounded.   Eyewitnesses have reported that the bomber targeted a security vehicle, with three members of the security forces amongst the dead.  Al-Shabaab has claimed responsibility for this latest attack in Mogadishu.  The militant group’s military operations spokesman, Sheikh Abdiasis Abu Musab, stated shortly after the blast that “today’s blast was part of our operations in Mogadishu and we shall continue.”

Thursday’s blast comes just a week after al-Shabaab militants carried out a major attack against the heavily fortified presidential palace, killing officials and guards in a fierce gun battle.  It is also comes after a string of attacks that have been carried out in the capital city in what appears to be an apparent upsurge of al-Shabaab bombings in and around Mogadishu, with night-time mortar rounds fired into the vast, heavily guarded airport complex which also houses the 22,000-strong African Union force as well as foreign diplomats and aid workers.

 

 

MENA Report

Posted on in Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, Yemen title_rule

Algeria

Despite health issues, Bouteflika runs for fourth term

23 February: Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflika ended months of speculation with the announcement of his intentions to run for a fourth term in the upcoming elections on 17 April.

Bouteflika, who is 76, has been at the helm in Algeria for 15 years. Last year, he endured a “mini-stroke”, which incapacitated for a large part of the year, causing fears of political upheaval. He has not appeared in public since the stroke, and has not addressed the nation for 18 months. However members of his cabinet have claimed that his health is improving and his mind remains unaffected.

Despite his absence from the public, Bouteflika remains heavily involved in governing the nation. He has replaced several cabinet ministers and regional officials, and removed high-ranking members of the intelligence service. It is believed these changes are an effort. Analysts believe the changes are an effort to consolidate support his re-election.

Bahrain

Report reveals statistics on anti-government incidents

25 February: In a new report, findings show that Bahrain’s police have seized a total of 154,816 weapons from violent anti-government radicals between 2011 and 2013. The number includes 35,914 Molotov cocktails. In addition, Bahrain has seen 11,195 acts of arson, 2,298 incidents of damage to public and private property and the blocking of 14,205 roads in the same period. The report additionally lists 36,774 security violations and 25,725 attacks on police resulting in 2,080 injuries and eight deaths, and damage to over 2,200 police patrol jeeps.

The statistics are part of a report released by Bahraini Human Rights Affairs Minister Dr Salah Ali. The release coincided with the visit by a technical team from the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights. Dr Ali used the opportunity to speak out against “terrorist tactics” employed by government opponents, and called on community leaders to help restore calm: “All political societies and religious leaders should take a strong stance in condemning violent attacks – including those targeting policemen.”

Further, the minister called on opposition groups to issue their demands at a negotiating table, instead of disrupting daily life.

Egypt

After government walkout, new Prime Minister Appointed

25 February: Ibrahim Melheb has been named Egypt’s new prime minister, after his predecessor, Hazem al-Beblawy, announced the resignation of the interim government that had been in place since the removal of President Mohamed Morsi in July.

Mehleb is an industrialist who headed a state-owned construction company and served in the last cabinet as housing minister. In a news conference, he said the new government would be named within days, with a focus on improving living conditions, defeating terrorism and ensuring a smooth presidential election, which must occur by mid-April, according to the newly approved constitution.

Mehleb is the sixth prime minister in Egypt since the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011. He enters the post amidst a series of labour strikes, anger over power brownouts and fuel shortages, and violent militant campaign targeting the security services, tourists, and the general population. In addition, he faces the ire of pro-Morsi supporters and members of the Muslim Brotherhood, which the government recently deemed a terrorist organisation. There has also been backlash against what is perceived as an increasingly authoritarian, military-dominated government. While army chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has become widely popular, factions within Egypt believe that his potential bid for presidency will not serve in the best interests of the nation.

Hala Shukrallah, the newly appointed head of the liberal political party Constitution (also the first woman and first Christian to lead a political party in Egypt), said she and her party supported the military ouster of Mr. Morsi. However, she added that Egyptians needed to ask questions about the “repercussions of the military’s involvement in the political arena.” On the removal of Morsi, she said, hile Egyptians were grateful, “The military responded to a certain moment […]this doesn’t mean at all that an oath of allegiance is in place.”

It is still unknown why former Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi had chosen to resign. The silence has added to the overwhelming national feeling political decisions are still being brokered out of the public’s sight.

Libya

Killings spark protests in Benghazi

26 February: Two policemen were killed in Benghazi, sparking protests by residents who are outraged at the level of lawlessness and bloodshed in the city. Angry demonstrators blocked roads and burned tyres. The killings occurred a day after the UN mission in Libya voiced deep concern for the escalating and daily violence occurring, particularly in the eastern region of the country.

One of the slain policemen, who was a retired officer, was killed in the Guwersha district. The other, a serving officer, was killed near his home in the Majuri neighbourhood. A day earlier, another police office had been killed.

In recent months, Benghazi has suffered near daily attacks, mostly targeting security forces. The central government, although weakened, is attempting to reign in former rebel brigades and establish a national military. However, the rebel brigades that fought to overthrow Gadhafi have, for the most part, turned into militias—some sanctioned by the government following the death of Gadhafi, others proceeding without government approval.

The UN Support Mission in Libya has asked Libyan authorities to make every effort to rein in the rampant violence, “UNSMIL expresses its deep concern about the continued violence — including assassinations, bombings, kidnappings and attacks in the east and other Libyan areas,” the mission said in a statement.

Morocco

Illegal migrants clash with security forces in attempt to enter Spanish territory

24 February: Nearly 300 African migrants stormed a border fence in an attempt to cross into the Spanish territory of Melilla from Morocco. The migrants hurled rocks at security forces as they stormed the six metre barbed wire fence. The subsequent clashes between the migrants and security forces left 27 wounded, among them 13 security troops. While ninety-six migrants were arrested, nearly 100 managed to cross over.

The territory of Melilla is one of only two land borders that the EU shares with Africa. The region is a major crossing point for sub-Saharan Africans seeking work or asylum in Europe. The majority of migrants who make the journey come from Eritrea and Somalia.

This is the second time in February that this type of assault has occurred. On 17 February, nearly 150 African migrants made it into Melilla after a similar attack on the border fence. On 6 February, 14 migrants drowned in Moroccan waters while trying to enter Ceuta, the other EU/Africa land border, by sea. In that event, Spanish authorities confirmed that police fired rubber bullets as the migrants swam into Spanish territory, but denied the shooting contributed to the drowning.

Syria

Al-Nusra Front issues ultimatum to ISIL

26 February: The head of al Nusra Front, an al Qaeda subsidiary fighting in Syria, has given an  ultimatum to another extremist group, Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/Levant (ISIS/ISIL). Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the chief of al-Nusra Front, has told ISIS to stop turning its guns on its allies, and asked them to come back under al-Qaeda’s central command. ISIS has five days to end infighting and accept arbitration from Sunni clerics or face expulsion from the region. The order comes two days after a suicide bombing allegedly carried out by ISIS killed a mediator representing al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in northern Syria. Al-Qaeda had severed ties with the group last month for their failure to act according to AQ directives. Zawahiri posted a notice online saying ISIS “is not a branch of the al Qaeda group.”

In a message produced by Nusra Front’s media wing, al-Jolani said, “I swear by God, if you again refuse God’s judgment, and do not stop your plague and pushing your ignorant ideology on the Muslim nation then you will be expelled, even from Iraq.”

Both the al-Nusra Front and ISIS are fighting in Syria, however while Al-Nusra and other militant opposition groups seek to topple President Bashar al-Assad’s government, ISIS is seeking the formation of an Islamic emirate. ISIS has been fighting al-Nusra members and civilians who support the opposition. The acrimony began in April 2013, when ISIS Chief, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, announced his group’s expansion into Syria, hoping to absorb al-Nusra Front into his ranks. Tensions between ISIS an AQ escalated when al-Baghdadi refused to heed al-Zawahiri’s directive to disband and leave Syria. The infighting between the groups serves to strengthen the Assad government as the insurgents are distracted, depleting fighters and resources by battling one another.

Tunisia

Return of Tunisian fighters from Syria sparks fear across nation

25 February: The Tunisian Interior Minister has said that nearly 400 Tunisian militants have returned from fighting in war in Syria. Their return has sparked fears that the returnees could fuel violence back home. Tunisia has dealt with sporadic violence linked to Islamic extremism since the 2011 revolution that removed former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. After the ouster of Ben Ali, a number of Tunisians left for Syria to join the ranks of extremist rebels who hope to overthrow the government of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad. Interior Minister Lotfi Ben Jeddou said, “We have managed to prevent nearly 8,000 people from going to Syria […] we don’t have exact figures for those who have returned, but they are estimated to number around 400.”

Authorities have been unable to arrest the returnees because of a “legal loophole” that has not been disclosed. However the government has indicated that the returnees are being monitored, and are listed in a database. In 2013, Tunisia’s public prosecutor began an inquiry into networks recruiting Tunisian fighters to head to Syria, including the introduction of airport checks to prevent would-be combatants from departing.

The violence that Tunisia has witnessed since 2011 has predominantly been blamed on Ansar al-Sharia, a hard-line Salafi movement believed to have links with Al-Qaeda. The group is believed responsible for the assassination of two liberal secular politicians last year, which sank Tunisia into political turmoil. Security forces have also battled militants hiding in the remote border regions of western Tunisia, notably in the Chaambi mountains.

Yemen

UN Security Council threatens sanctions against those disrupting Yemen’s stability

The UN Security Council has proposed a resolution that would authorise sanctions against individuals and organisations threatening peace, security or stability in Yemen. The draft resolution states that those causing disruption would meet with travel bans and asset freezes for a minimum period of one year. The sanctions would target those who attempt “obstructing or undermining the successful completion of the political transition,” or who commit “attacks on essential infrastructure or acts of terrorism” and who violate human rights and international humanitarian law. The draft does not list specific individuals or groups, but intends to establish a committee to make these decisions.The measures could be approved this week.

Yemen has been struggling with its transition to democracy since Arab Spring protests in 2011. A transitional government is trying to promote national reconciliation, including the drafting of a new constitution, and new elections. However, the presence of an Al Qaeda insurgency has undermined efforts towards democracy, and some officials believe that loyalists to former president Saleh have quietly backed the terrorist group.

The draft resolution would authorise an asset freeze and travel ban under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter, which can be enforced militarily, against those “engaging in or providing support for acts that threaten the peace, security or stability of Yemen.”

 

Attack on School in Northern Nigeria

Posted on in Nigeria title_rule

In Nigeria, suspected Boko Haram militants carried out an attack on a school in northern Nigeria.

At least twenty-nine students have been killed in Nigeria after suspected Boko Haram militants attacked a boarding school in the north-eastern region of the country.  According to on the ground sources, the remote school, which is located in the state of Yobe, was attacked overnight when students were in their dormitories.  All the twenty-nine victims were teenage boys while another eleven were seriously injured.  Most of the school was also burned to the ground.  Although no further information has been released, Nigeria’s military announced on Tuesday that it was pursuing the attackers.  A statement released by the military stated “we assure all law-abiding citizens that we will continue to do what is necessary to protect lives and property.”  President Goodluck Jonathan has since condemned the killings, calling them “heinous, brutal and mindless.”

Over the past year, Islamist militants have attacked dozens of schools in north-eastern Nigeria.  Last September, forty students were killed at an agricultural college during a similar raid which was also carried out at night.   Although the Nigerian government launched military operations in May last year to end Boko Haram’s four year insurgency, Nigeria’s armed forces are currently facing increasing criticism for their failure to protect civilians and to respond to the raids carried out by militants.

Meanwhile a court in Kenya dropped charges on Wednesday against forty-one men and released on bail twenty-nine others who were arrested earlier this month during a raid on a mosque, which has been accused of supporting Islamist extremists.

On 2 February, police raided Mombasa’s Musa mosque, detaining seventy men whom officials accused of attending radicalisation meeting.  The raid on the mosque sparked deadly rights in the port city.  The seventy men were all initially charged with being members of Somalia’s al-Shabaab along with a number of other charges, which included possession of firearms and inciting violence.  However on Wednesday, Magistrate Richard Oden-yo ordered forty-one of those charged to be set free due to a lack of evidence.  The remaining 29 suspects were released on bail, which was set at 500,000 Kenyan shillings (5,800 dollars; 4,200 euros each.  The releases came just one day after Kenya’s top security chiefs warned of an “increased threat of radicalization” from home-grown Islamists, singling out the Musa mosque as a specific centre encouraging extremism, along with two others.

Egyptian Government Resigns

Posted on in Egypt title_rule

In a move that shocked the nation, this morning Egypt’s military-backed government tendered its resignation to the republic.

In a televised address, Egyptian Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi confirmed that the government has resigned. He gave no definitive reason for the decision. An unnamed source has revealed that the decision came after a 15-minute cabinet meeting, which included Defence Minister and Army Chief Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Sisi is widely expected to run for president in the upcoming elections. One official source said, “This was done as a step that was needed ahead of Sisi’s announcement that he will run for president.”

Sisi has skyrocketed in the political sphere since his role in removing former president Mohamed Morsi from office. Shortly after the removal, he unveiled a political roadmap which included a transition from an interim government to a new administration comprised of elected officials. Sisi has been a popular but divisive figure as supporters of the Morsi government have actively protested against the interim government and the army, leading to weekly (sometimes daily) clashes with pro-government citizens and security forces.

The decision also came as a series of strikes continue across several industries, including public transport workers and garbage collectors. Further, the nation has been suffering a great shortage of cooking gas. Prime minister El-Beblawi has been perceived by Egyptian media as indecisive and unable to provide a remedy for the Egypt’s failing economy. Beblawi has also been criticised for his inability to prevent or control escalating terror attacks within Egypt, attacks which have been blamed on the Muslim Brotherhood and extremist supporters of Morsi. Beblawi has acknowledged these poor conditions, but maintains that Egypt is in a better place now than during the Morsi regime.

While it remains unofficial, it is expected that Housing Minister Ibrahim Mehleb will succeed Beblawi.

 

Tunisia: The Politics of Headscarves

Posted on in Tunisia title_rule

On 14 February, the Tunisian government announced that security forces will tighten checks on women wearing niqab, or full-face veils. The decision comes after a 10 February incident in which a man wearing a niqab, described by officials as a “Salafist”, was arrested in the Ariana neighbourhood in northern Tunis. The public announcement has caused anger among political and human rights activists.

Headscarves in Tunisia

In 1981, under the regime of deposed president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, headscarves in all forms were banned from schools or government buildings. In an effort to enforce conformity, police stopped women in the streets and asked them to remove their headscarves, telling them not to wear them again. It was considered a “sectarian” fashion which came to Tunisia “uninvited”. Many government officials believed that head scarves were being promoted by religious extremists with political ambitions. Over time, the niqab in particular grew to be viewed as a political symbol, more so than a religious one. In 2006, Tunisian authorities reinforced the ban. Though activists considered the ban a deprivation of human rights, under Ben Ali’s authoritative regime, the dissent was quickly quieted.

Following Ben Ali’s removal in January 2011, the practice of wearing headscarves increased significantly. Around 80% of Tunisian women wear a version of the traditionally accepted hijab, which covers the hair and ears, leaving the face uncovered. Though increasing in popularity, only 2% of women wear the niqab, which leaves only the eyes exposed. The full burqa, which leaves no features of the face exposed, is worn by less than 1% of the female population.

The increase in various forms of headscarves has been a hot topic of debate between Islamists and secularists. On university campuses, where niqab is still discouraged (and in some universities, banned completely), violent confrontations have occurred between factions on both sides of the debate. In 2012, a Tunisian university dean faced trial for allegedly slapping a female student wearing niqab. The woman in question was expelled for six months for refusing to remove her covering. The dean had previously complained that two students wearing niqab had vandalised his office. The event caused protests and sit-ins, as those who protested for their human rights rowed with those concerned about security.

The Political Debate

Political perceptions of headscarves shifted in 2011, when Islamist-leaning advocates, suppressed under the former regime, successfully installed the moderate-Islamist Ennahda party. The ban on headscarves was lifted and many women donned the niqab as a symbol of freedom and victory.

However, due to the Ennahda party’s perceived inability to maintain the economy and preserve national security, tensions quickly soared between the Islamist government and its secular opposition. The conflict was taken to crisis levels in 2013 with the assassination of two secular politicians, both attributed to Islamic extremists. After hard-fought political battles and negotiations, the Ennahda-led government stepped down in late-January 2014.

Tunisia has since installed an independent caretaker government and adopted a new constitution. In the weeks since the change, the debate against wearing niqab in particular has returned, but with another angle. Tunisian Interior Minister Lotfi Ben Jeddo has repeatedly stated that many fugitives have used the niqab to disguise themselves to avoid capture by security forces. Several men have been caught wearing niqab in an attempt to evade police. While security measures will be put in place to check the identities of those wearing niqab, Ben Jeddo emphasised that a total ban would be a political decision, one that sits outside of the Interior Ministry’s mandate.

Mufti supports niqab ban

Tunisia’s mufti, Sheikh Hamda Saeed, has declared his support for banning the niqab on security grounds, believing that leaders have the right to limit “things that are permissible if they find this to be in the best interests of the nation.”

The Mufti’s stance is considered a religious edict. The niqab, while permissible in Islam, is not a requirement. Activists and women who choose to wear niqab are concerned that the new security checks will come at the expense of their dignity. Tunisian security forces will walk a fine line.

The new constitution enshrines both freedom of religion and religious rights. The Tunisian Interior Ministry released a statement saying they will “strictly control every person wearing a niqab within the framework of the law.” As the niqab becomes increasingly politicised, care must be taken to maintain security, uphold the constitution, and avoid backlash from extreme factions who feel undermined by the new law.