MS Risk Blog

Libyan Government, Former Prime Minister, Call for International Assistance in War on Terror

Speaking at a meeting in London, Libya’s former Prime Minister Ali Zeidan issued an alarming message that Libya could become “the next crucible of global terrorism.” He strongly urged Libya’s allies to assist the country from falling into collapse. Zeidan stated, “Libya could be a base for al-Qaeda for any operation to Italy, to Britain, to France, to Spain, to Morocco, to everywhere. Weapons are everywhere, ammunition is everywhere.” Zeidan urged Britain to increase its support to help to train Libyan security forces and to assist with economic and political reforms.

Libya’s engagement in the Arab Spring of 2011 took the form of a civil war which ultimately saw the death of Dictator Muammar Gadhafi and the end of his regime. However, despite the end of autocratic rule, the nation has remained in turmoil. Weaponry looted from the regime, valued in the millions of dollars, remains prolific on the black market and in the hands of tribal militias and Islamic extremist groups. Factions have seized Libya’s oil assets and land in the eastern part of the nation, threatening to form an autonomous nation. The Libyan government had been reluctant to launch offensives against the militias and extremist groups for fear that those same groups would exploit the added chaos.

Zeidan’s warning is dire: Libya has become ungovernable, and requires a UN peacekeeping force to prevent al-Qaeda or inspired derivatives from gaining a stronghold in the region. The northern part of the nation extends into the Mediterranean Sea, making it a gateway for illegal immigrants or dangerous individuals to access Europe.

The former prime minister added that Libya’s General National Congress is no longer legitimate, and feels that and new elections should be held to bring in a new interim authority. However, he remains sympathetic to the role he left: “Do you think it is a privilege to be prime minister of Libya at this time? It is some kind of suffering. What it has cost me in terms of my nerves and my health over these 15 months, it was unbelievable.

Zeidan served as prime minister for 15 months, during which he was kidnapped and held by a rebel faction. In March, he was ousted from Libya’s parliament in a vote of no confidence following escalating chaos culminating the government’s inability to prevent rebels in the east from attempting to illegally export Libyan oil. Libya has the largest known oil reserves in Africa, approximately 47 billion barrels. Currently, several ports in the east are in the hands of rebel factions.

Zeidan has since fled to Germany, where he had lived previously while in opposition against Gadhafi. However he is preparing to return to Libya in the near future, with intentions to restore stability to his nation.

Simultaneously, the Libyan government has also called for help and declared a “War on Terror”. A statement released on 25 March by the Council of Ministers states, “Libya’s interim government asks the international community and especially the United Nations to provide assistance to uproot terrorism […] the government confirms that it wants this war on terror to start as soon as possible.”

The statement continues, “The nation is now confronting terrorist groups which requires making security and military resources available to fight such epidemic and bring peace and security to our cities […] the interim government asks the world community, especially the United Nations to provide the needed support in order to eradicate terrorism from Libyan cities.

The statement marks the first time in Libyan history that the government has called for outside help to fight terrorists on Libyan soil. The call for help comes after a wave of bombings and assassinations in Benghazi, Derna and Sirte. In Benghazi, killings or injuries through shooting or car bombs, have occurred on a near daily basis. Opposition to the declaration of war on terrorism has already emerged, particularly amongst Islamist supporters in the nation, who feel they will be targeted for their political leanings.

On 28 March, Tarek Mitri, Chief of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) visited Tunisia’s capital, Tunis, to officially request help. Mitri spoke with Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki and Ennahda Party head Rachid Ghannouchi. Reportedly, Mitri asked the Tunisian government, which is on the road to recovery following their 2010 uprising, to share experiences regarding democratic transition and national dialogue.

Echoing the distress, a video has been released of Saddi Gadhafi, son of the former dictator. Saadi, who fled to Niger during the revolution, was extradited to Libya earlier this year. He is accused of trying to suppress the uprising against his father’s rule.

In the video, he says, “I apologise to the Libyan people, and I apologise to the dear brothers in the Libyan government for all the harm I’ve caused and for disturbing the security and stability of Libya. I admit that these things were wrong, and we should not have perpetrated these acts.” He also called on “those who carry weapons to hand over their weapons”. Saadi’s brother, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, remains in the hands of rebels in Zintan, where he was captured in November 2011.

There is no official word yet from the UK or the UN regarding support for action in Libya.

Tensions Rise on the Korean Peninsula as North and South Korea Exchange Fire

Tensions rose on Monday as North and South Korea traded hundreds of rounds of live artillery fire across their disputed maritime border, forcing South Korean islanders to take shelter just one day after the North increased tensions by threatening to carry out a “new” nuclear test.

South Korean officials indicated Monday that they had returned fire after North Korean shells landed in its territorial waters.  In an attempt to ensure maximum publicity for its live-fire drill, North Korea took an unusual step by notifying the South beforehand.  The live-fire exercises were announced by North Korea in a faxed message from its military to the South’s navy, with South Korea warning of an immediate retaliation if any shells were to cross its border.

A statement released by South Korea’s Defence Ministry indicated “some of (North Korea’s) shells landed south of the border during the drill.  So our military fired back north of the border in line with ordinary protocol.”  South Korea further stated that the sides exchanged hundreds of shells, with Defence Ministry spokesman Kim Min-Seok indicating that “the North fired some 500 shots…and some 100 of them landed in waters south of the border.”  In response, the spokesman indicated that the South had responded to Pyongyang’s “premeditated provocation” by firing 300 shells from K-9 self-propelled howitzer batteries that are based on its front-line islands, adding “if the North takes issue with our legitimate returning of fire and uses it to make yet another provocation towards our sea and islands, we will make a resolute retaliation.”  During the three-hour incident, which began at 12:15PM (0315 GMT), border island residents were evacuated to shelters as South Korean fighter jets flew overhead.  The evacuation order was lifted an hour after the North ended its drills.

While China, which is North Korea’s largest trading partner, has called for calm and restraint in the wake of the exchange of fire, Monday’s incident, which comes a day after Pyongyang threatened to conduct a “new” type of nuclear test, has largely been seen as a sign of the North’s growing frustration with the United States’ resistance to resume multi-party talks on its nuclear programme.  The nuclear negotiations are seen by Pyongyang as an opportunity for it to win material concessions and aid from the international community.   Monday’s incident also coincided with a massive, amphibious landing drill by nearly 15,000 South Korean and US troops.

Tensions Increased Over Past Few Weeks

While Monday’s incident is not the first to occur in recent year, North-South tensions have been rising for weeks, undermining hopes that were raised after the North in February of this year hosted the first reunion for more than three years of families that were separated by the war.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula have been on the rise after North Korea last week test-fired two medium-range Nodong missiles over the sea, its first such launch since 2009.  According to the South Korean defence ministry, the missiles were fired from the Suckon region north of Pyongyang and flew for about 650 kilometres (400 miles) before falling into the sea off the east coast of the Korean peninsula.  Ministry spokesman Kim Min-Seok stated that the Nodong “…is capable of hitting not only most of Japan but also Russia and China.”  The launch came shortly after US, South Korean and Japanese officials met for talks in the Netherlands.  It also came on the fourth anniversary of the sinking of a South Korean warship.

The launch of the two missiles marked a step up from the short-range rockets Pyongyang has fired in recent weeks.   Those launches were seen as a response to the current US-South Korea annual military exercises.  To date, North Korea has conducted three nuclear tests, with the most recent, and most powerful, occurring in February last year.

While the United Nations drew the western border after the Korean War (1950 – 1953), North Korea has never recognised it and the area has been a flashpoint between the two Koreas.  It argues that the de-facto maritime boundary was unilaterally drawn by US-led United Nations forces.  In late 2010, four South Koreans, two marines and two civilians, were killed on a border island by North Korean artillery fire.  At the time, North Korea stated that it was responding to South Korean military exercises that were occurring in the area.  Tensions were already high that year after a South Korean warship sank near Baengnyeong island, resulting in the deaths of forty-six people.  At the time, Seoul stated that Pyongyan had torpedoed the vessel, however North Korea denied any role in the incident.  Border fire was also briefly exchanged in August 2011.

US Urges Russia to Stop “Intimidating” Ukraine

United States President Barack Obama has urged Russia to stop “intimidating” Ukraine and to cut the number of troops it has deployed to its eastern border.  The statement by Mr Obama comes as ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych called for a national referendum to determine each region’s “status within Ukraine.”

Speaking on Thursday, Mr Obama stated that the move by Russia may “be an effort to intimidate Ukraine, or it may be that Russia has additional plans.”  He added that President Vladimir Putin had been “willing to show a deeply-held grievance about what he considers to be the loss of the Soviet Union.”  He also warned that the Russian leader should not “revert back to the kinds of practices that were so prevalent during the Cold War,” adding “I think there’s a strong sense of Russian nationalism and a sense that somehow the West has taken advantage of Russia in the past.”

Russia is believed to have deployed a force of several thousand troops close to Ukraine’s eastern frontier.  Although the Kremlin has stated that it has no plans to take over the eastern regions of Ukraine, tensions in Ukraine and in other former Soviets states have continued to rise.

A new classified intelligence assessment has also concluded that it is more likely than previously that Russian forces will enter eastern Ukraine.  Although US intelligence officials have emphasized that nothing is certain, they have indicated that over the past three to four days, there have been several worrying signs.  According to one official, “this has shifted our thinking that the likelihood of a further Russian incursion is more probable than it was previously thought to be.”  The build up along Russia’s eastern border with Ukraine is reminiscent of Moscow’s military moves before it went into Chechnya and Georgia in both numbers of units and their capabilities.

The assessment makes several new points including:

• Troops on Russia’s border with eastern Ukraine, which exceed 30,000, are “significantly more” than what is needed for the “exercises” Russia says it has been conducting, and there is no sign the forces are making any move to return to their home bases.
• The troops on the border with Ukraine include large numbers of “motorized” units that can quickly move.  Additional Special Forces, airborne troops, air transport and other units that would be needed appear to be at a higher state of mobilization in other locations in Russia.
• Russian troops already on the border include air defence artillery and wheeled vehicles.

According to US intelligence officials, there is additional intelligence that even more Russian forces are “reinforcing” the border region.  All of the troops are in  positions for potential military action.  The US currently believes that Russia may decide to enter eastern Ukraine in order to establish a land bridge into Crimea.  The belief is that Russian forces would move toward three Ukrainian cities:  Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Luhansk in order to establish land access into Crimea.  According to US intelligence information, Russian forces are currently positioned in and around Rostov, Kursk and Belgorod.

In response to growing unrest amongst Western leaders, a Russian security official has also stated that intelligence measures are now being stepped up in order to counter Western threats to Moscow’s influence.  Alexander Malevany, deputy head of the Federal Security Service (FSB) was quoted as saying “there has been a sharp increase in external threats to the state.  The lawful desire of the peoples of Crimea and eastern Ukrainian regions is causing hysteria in the United States and its allies.”  He added that Russia was taking “offensive intelligence measures” to counter Western efforts to “weaken Russian influence in a region that is of vital importance to Moscow.”

Meanwhile on Thursday, Ukraine’s highly-divisive opposition leader, and former premier Yulia Tymoshenko, announced her plans to run in the presidential polls which have been set for 25 May 2014, following last month’s fall of a pro-Kremlin regime.   The dramatic announcement completes a highly improbable return to national politics that underscores the scale of changes that have shaken the former Soviet republic in the past few weeks.

Speaking to reporters shortly after walking into a pressroom, the 53-year-old confirmed “I intend to run for president of Ukraine.”  In 2010, Tymoshenko, one of the most charismatic and outspoken leaders of Ukraine’s 2004 pro-democracy Orange Revolution, lost a close presidential poll to Victor Yanukovych after heading two pro-Western cabinets that became embroiled in fighting and eventually lost popular support.  During her speech, Tymoshenko attempted to paint herself as a compromise figure who could look after the interests of her older supporters but who could also be able to find common ground with the Russian speakers who are now looking towards the Kremlin for assistance.

Shortly after the 2010 vote, her political downfall was rapid and seemingly fatal as Yanukovych’s government quickly launched a series of criminal probes against his political rival.  This led to a controversial trial over Tymoshenko’s role in agreeing to a 2009 gas contract with Russia that many Ukrainians though came at too high a cost.  In October 2011, she was convicted of abusing her power and was subsequently sentenced to seven years in prison, a sentencing that Western nations denounced as the use of selective justice.

However on 22 February 2014, the day the Ukrainian parliament ousted Yanukovych for his role in the deaths of nearly 100 protesters in Kiev earlier that month, she emerged triumphantly from a state hospital, where she had spent most of her sentence under guard.  Hours after her release, she arrived at the protest square in the heart of Kiev, which had also served as the crucible of the 2004 pro-democracy movement that had propelled her political career.  However the crowd’s reception of Tymoshenko was guarded, a sign of their growing weariness of the corruption allegations that had been made against her.  Many now believe that the pro-Western government movement that Tymoshenko once headed is now looking towards a new generation of leaders who played a more prominent role in the latest protests and who now hold key position sin the new interim government.

Twenty-First Century Soviet Union: Could Moscow be Looking Towards Annexing States in Eastern Europe?

With the annexation of Crimea, there have been growing Western concerns of the rising number of Russian troops along the country’s eastern border with Ukraine.   Although Moscow has denied that President Vladimir Putin has an ambitious plan to resurrect vestiges of the Soviet empire and stamp his authority over eastern European nations that sought protection from the West following the 1989 fall of the Berlin wall, the presence of 30,000 troops stationed along the border is nevertheless alarming.  Furthermore, while Moscow originally stated that it was intervening in Crimea because of concerns over the ill-treatment of Russians there, who make up more than half of the population, since Crimea’s annexation, Russia has done little to ease Eastern European fears of further takeovers.  The question now remains, could similar action take place in other parts of the former Soviet Union?

Eastern Ukraine

Since the ouster of Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych in February 2014, there have been frequent pro-Russian demonstrations that have taken place in Donetsk as well as in other cities in eastern Ukraine.  So far, at least one person has been killed.  Russians however have blamed far-right pro-Western demonstrators for escalating tensions throughout the country.

With Russian troops having staged military exercises near the border, and Ukrainian officials claiming Thursday that 100,000 Russian forces have massed on Ukraine’s border, it would not be difficult for them to move across into Ukraine itself.

If Putin is indeed considering more territorial expansion, than eastern Ukraine is likely to be high on his list.  The political costs however would be high, with NATO and Western leaders already warning Moscow against further expansionism.

Although Crimea, which was previously Russian territory, became part of the Ukraine in 1954, Ukraine’s eastern border goes back much further, ties which could be used by Putin in any possible future take overs.

Moldova

A great deal of attention has also focused on Trans-Dniester, a separatist region of Moldova, which has already offered itself to Moscow.  Proclaiming independence in 1990, which has never been recognised internationally, Trans-Dniester is majority Russian-speaking while most Moldovans speak Romanian.  NATO’s commander in Europe has warned that Trans-Dneister may be Russia’s next target as Moscow has already deployed 1,000 troops to the region, which borders Ukraine, near the city of Odessa.

The southern region of Gagauzia, an autonomous region of Moldova which is made up of four enclaves with a total population of 160,000 also held a referendum in February 2014, in which 98.4% of voters backed integration with a Russia-led customs union.  The Moldovan government has stated that the referendum was illegitimate.

Georgia

Russia’s 2008 brief war with Georgia resulted in two areas breaking away, South Ossetia and Abkhazi.  Although Abkhazia had already declared independence unilaterally in 1999, since the 2008 war, the two enclaves have existed in a grey zone as they are not recognized internationally, nor are they formally are part of Russia.  Although Moscow’s stated aim at the time was to protect Russian speakers, most residents are native speakers of Ossetian and Abkhaz respectively.  Furthermore, most residents hold Russian passports and are opposed to the Georgian government in Tbilisi.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

Although the Baltic republics regained their independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990’s, Russians account for about a third of the population in both Estonia and Latvia.  Due to the fact that both Latvia and Estonia require knowledge of their languages in order to gain citizenship, some Russian speakers born in the countries are either unable or unwilling to become citizens.  Many Russian speakers have complained of discrimination, stating that the strict language laws make it difficult for them to get jobs.  This treatment was echoed by the Kremlin in mid-March of this year, with officials expressing “outrage” at the treatment of ethnic Russians in Estonia, the same reason, which they gave for intervening in Crimea.       

In Lithuania, ethnic Russians make up about 5% of the population and there is no requirement for them to pass a language test in order to attain citizenship.

However what must be noted is that in the case of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, all three Baltic states are members of both the European Union and NATO.  Therefore any Russian incursion would have serious consequences as article 5 of the NATO treaty states that an attack on one member state is an attack on all.

Belarus 

Currently, there is no reason why Russia would seek to intervene in Belarus as the country is already closely aligned with Moscow.  Furthermore, Belarus is an economic union with Russia, and Russian is an official language.  Although only 8.3% of the population identifies itself as Russian, more than 70% speak the language.

Northern Kazakhstan 

Ties between Russia and Kazakhstan go back to tsarist times, when northern cities such as Pavlodar and Uralsk were founded by the Russians as military outposts.  Russians currently account for more than half of the population in northern Kazakhstan which, like Crimea, was once a part of Russia itself.

Like Ukraine, Kazakhstan signed an agreement on nuclear disarmament in 1994 in exchange for protection.  It has no port like Sevastopol in Crimea, however it does have the Baikonur space facility.

Although Kazakhstan already has close ties with Russia, as it is one of two other members, along with Belarus, of Moscow’s customs union, it has remained officially neutral in the matter of Ukraine.

Other Central Asian Republics

After independence in 1991, large numbers of Russians emigrated to central Asia, with the percentage of ethnic Russians in the region now ranging from 1.1% in Tajikistan to 12.5% in Kyrgyzstan.  However it must be noted that the Central Asian economies remain tied to Russia, bot in terms of trade and remittances from migrants working there.

While it therefore seems unlikely that Moscow would seek to intervene in the region, the post-Crimea turmoil could still have an affect on the area.  As the Russian rouble falls, and sanctions hit Russian businesses, jobless migrants returning from Russia could cause trouble for the governments in Dushanbe or Bishkek.

Armenia and Azerbaijan 

Although Armenia has no Russian population to speak of, and Azerbaijan has just 1%, both countries tread a geopolitical tightrope between Russia and the West.  Furthermore, since Aremenia gained its independence in 1991, Russia has retained a military base at Gyumri.

As was the case in Ukraine, Armenia had been preparing to sign an association agreement with the EU, however in September 2013, officials in the country announced that Armenia would be joining the Russian-led customs union instead.

Azerbaijan on the other hand is less economically dependent on Russia as it exports oil and natural gas to the EU.  A pipeline that ends in Turkey effectively allows it to skirt Russian territory.

Russia would like to keep both countries in its sphere of influence, however in the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia is more likely to use economic, as opposed to military, measures.

Poland and the Baltics

Outside of Russia’s direct neighbours, countries such as Poland and those in the Baltics have also caused unease, with a sense that they too are under threat.

Poland

Although leaders in Poland have played down the danger, repeatedly reassuring the public, there remains a widespread sense of insecurity throughout the country.

While during an event to celebrate the 15^th anniversary of Poland joining NATO, Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that he saw no direct threat to his country, a view that has been echoed by Poland’s President Bronislaw Komorowski, an opinion poll has shown that 59% of respondents believed Russia’s foreign policy presented a threat to Poland’s security.  Some have stated that they “…feel threatened by Russia because we’re next.  Ukraine is first, then the Baltic countries and then Russia’s President Putin will make something bad here.”  These fears have been echoed across the country, with one resident stating “now they want to attack Ukraine but we are neighbours so I don’t think Poland is safe, especially because we have a shred history with Russia, and they were always aggressors.”  While these remarks to not directly indicate that most Poles fear that Russia is about to launch a military attack on the, their shared history however has generated a widespread mistrust of Russia and its leadership.

During the 18^th century Catherine the Great annexed eastern Poland, with the country not regaining its independence until the end of World War One.  However after just two decades of freedom, the Soviet Union invaded eastern Poland just two weeks after Nazi Germany marched into western Poland in 1939.  While the Red Army liberated Poland from the Nazis in 1945, this liberation was seen by many as a simple transfer of power, from one enemy to the next.  Upon removing Nazi troops out of Poland, Joseph Stalin quickly installed a Soviet-backed communist system throughout the country, with the last Soviet troops leaving Poland in 1993.

According to Marcin Zaborowski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, “…there is a sense that certain boundaries have been crossed, that precedents have been created and because of that its not clear where Putin is going to stop,” adding that “this clearly unprovoked aggression against another state is in breach of international law.  It doesn’t seem wise to hang on to the belief Putin’s not going to go further.”

Poland’s growing insecurity however is not solely tied to the country, but is also shared by the Baltic countries, which were also incorporated into the Soviet Union after World War Two.

Baltic States

Lithuania’s President Dalia Grybauskaite warned last week that Russia was trying to redraw the post-war map of Europe, adding that while Ukraine is likely to be the next on Putin’s list, Moldova, the Baltics and Poland would be next.

Estonia and Latvia both have large Russian minorities, which is of concern considering Putin’s justification for occupying Crimea has been to protect ethnic Russians there.

Military Boost 

In response of growing fears of a possible Russian takeover of Poland and/or the Baltics, the United States has announced that it is increasing its military cooperation with Poland and the Baltic states.  Officials have indicated that the US is sending six more F-15 fighters and a KC-135 refuelling tanker to increase its support for NATO’s patrolling of Baltic airspace.

In Poland, about 300 US air force personnel and 12 US F-16 fighters will be deployed for a joint training exercise.  This is a significant boost to the 10 US airmen who are already stationed in the country.  However the United States response will not solely focus on military aspects, but will also concentrate on the energy issue, which has developed out of the Ukrainian crisis.  According to sources in Poland, “our prime minister and president have said we have to work more intensely towards energy independence.  Energy is vital because the threat is not just of a military nature, its also about turning the gas taps off.”  Poland has already experienced this switch-off as much of Russia’s gas supplies to Europe transit Ukraine while on its way West.  In 2009, a price dispute between the Ukraine and Russia halted supplies to many European countries.

Despite the 2009 issue, Poland and the Baltic countries remained dependent on Russian gas supplies, with Poland last year importing 60% of the gas consumed by industry and households from Russian gas company Gazprom.  According to Poland’s Prime Minister Tusk, Central and Eastern Europe’s dependence on Russian gas effectively gave Putin too much leverage.  However after years of stating that it should liberate itself from independence of Russia’s gas supplies, and not doing much about it, Poland is now diversifying its gas sources.

By the end of this year, Poland is set to complete construction of a liquefied natural gas terminal to import gas from Qatar.  It has also increased the capacity of interconnector pipelines with German and the Czech Republic in order to boost supplies from those markets.  Poland also hopes to start producing its own shale gas in the future.

The United States and Other Powers Vote to Kick Russia out of G8

On Tuesday, United States President Barack Obama arrived in Brussels for scheduled talks with leaders of the European Union and NATO, which will focus on Ukraine and other transatlantic issues.

Sources have indicated that the talks will focus on free trade deals and on lingering concerns caused by allegations of American spying on EU allies, however discussions on the crisis in Ukraine are likely to dominate the talks.  On Tuesday, Mr Obama stated that Russia was acting “not out of strength, but out of weakness” in Ukraine, warning of the possibility of further sanctions against Russia if it encroached further into Ukraine.  The US President, who is currently on an official tour in Europe, elaborated Wednesday, stating “energy is obliviously a central focus of our efforts,” and acknowledged that this “will have some impact on the global economy.”  He also praised the EU for the steps it had already taken, along with the US, to penalise Russia.  These have included visa bans and asset freezes against a number of Russian officials.

During a press conference held shortly after completing talks with EU leaders Jose Manuel Barroso and Herman Van Rompuy, the three men spoke of the special relationship between the transatlantic partners, with Mr Obama stating “the world is safer and more just when Europe and American stand as one.”  Mr Van Rompuy, the European Council president, called it a “crucial” relationship.  Their talks at the headquarters of the 28-nation EU bloc also covered plans to finalise a transatlantic trade partnership, as well as efforts to tackle Iran’s nuclear programme and Syria’s chemical weapons.

Security has been heightened in the Belgian capital, with police cordoning off areas near the EU headquarters and Mr Obama’s hotel.  Some extra 800 police officers have been deployed on Brussels streets for the duration of Mr Obama’s visit, which will last less than 24 hours.  In total, Belgium has spent 10m euros (£8.35m) on increased security.

Russia Suspended from G8

As United States President Barack Obama continues his official visit in Europe, the President and other world leaders have decided to end Russia’s role in the group of leading industrialized nations.  The move to suspend Russia’s membership in the G8 is just the latest direct response from major countries allied against Russia’s annexation of Crimea.  An aide to British Prime Minister David Cameron also confirmed that a group summit, initially planned for June in Sochi, Russia, where the Winter Olympics were held, is now off.

A statement released by the White House Monday stated “international law prohibits the acquisition of part or all of another state’s territory through coercion or force,” adding “to do so violates the principles upon which the international system is built.  We condemn the illegal referendum held in Crimea in violation of Ukraine’s constitution.”  In response to Russia’s suspension from the G8, Russian Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov indicated Monday that the move would be no big deal.  Speaking during a news conference, the foreign minister stated “G8 is an information organization that does not give out any membership cards and, by its definition, cannot remove anyone….All the economic and financial questions are decided in G20, and G8 has the purpose of existence as the forum of dialogue between the leading Western countries and Russia.”  Lavrov added that Russia was “not attached to this format and we don’t see a great misfortune if it will not gather.  Maybe, for a year or two, it will be an experiment for us to see how we live without it.”  In a nod to political and economic reforms, the United States, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Japan and Italy added Russia to the group in 1998, effectively transforming it from the G7 to the G8.

Speaking shortly after attending a nuclear security summit with other world leaders in the Netherlands, President Obama stated that the United States and its allies in Europe are “united in imposing a cost on Russia for its actions so far.”

International Concern Over Russian Troop Movement in Eastern Ukraine

The White House has warned that Russian forces gathering on the border with eastern Ukraine may be poised to invade as the government in Kiev indicated that the prospect of war with Moscow was continuing to grow after the annexation of Crimea.

On Monday, a close aide to US President Barack Obama indicated that the White House is “very concerned by the potential for escalation” after Russia massed its troops on the border with Ukraine.  Speaking to journalists as leaders gathered in The Hague to discuss a response to the crisis, Deputy National Security Advisor Ben Rhodes stated that the officials in the US “…are watching very closely, we believe that Russia stands an enormous amount to lose” from any escalation.  The official statement from the White House comes as a US military officer confirmed Monday that Russian military presence continued to increase along Ukraine’s eastern border.  The officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, indicated “they’re still growing in numbers.  They’re still in a hot state of readiness,,” however the officer did note that there was no sign that Russian forces were about to launch an invasion of eastern Ukraine,” adding “we haven’t seen anything to suggest anything is imminent….But if they chose to move, it would not take long.”

Even before Putin formally annexed Ukraine’s southern Crimea region last week, following a referendum, which has been condemned as illegal by Western government, thousands of Russian troops had held a military exercise near the border regions.  With the annexation of Crimea, NATO officials are now concerned that Putin could have desires to take over Transnistria, a restive Russian-speaking region in western Moldova, also known as Trans-Dniester, where separatist leaders have demanded to be allowed to join Russia following the annexation of Crimea.  Moldova’s President Nicolae Timofti warned Putin last week against considering the annexation of Transnistria.

Moscow however has denied any such plans despite President Vladimir Putin’s open ambition to resurrect vestiges of the Soviet empire and stamp his authority over eastern European nations that sought protection from the west following the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall.  The Kremlin has also made it clear that it intends to “protect” compatriots in the Russifies south-eastern swaths of Ukraine that it says have been victimised by violent nationalists since last month’s rice to power of a pro-European team.

According to officials in the Ukraine, the Russians had roughly 30,000 troops near the border, including air and ground forces, air defence weapons, fighter jets, motorised vehicles, airborne units and cargo planes in order to move those troops.”  An official also indicated that Russian forces were deployed along the main roads leading to the border but had not moved any closer to Ukraine in recent days.  A second defence official noted that the Russians had more than enough troops in place in order to launch an operation in eastern Ukraine if it decided to.  Officials in the United States have indicated that they are closely monitoring the situation.

Ukraine Orders Troops out of Crimea 

On Monday, Ukraine ordered its outnumbered troops to withdraw from Crimea after the seizure of another military base.

Ukraine’s acting president Oleksandr Turchynov sombrely told lawmakers that both servicemen and their families would now be relocated to the mainland.  In a national televised statement, the president indicated, “the national security and defence council has reached a decision, under instructions from the defence ministry, to conduct a redeployment of military units stationed in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea.”  He added, “the cabinet of ministers had instructions to resettle the families of soldiers as well as everyone else who today is forced to leave their homes under the pressure and aggression of the Russian army’s occupying forces.”

Crimea’s pro-Kremlin deputy premier Rustam Temirgaliyev indicated Monday “all Ukrainian soldiers had either switched to the Russian side or are leaving the territory of the Crimea.”

The assault by Russian troops and pro-Kremlin militias continued Monday with the fall of a Ukrainian naval base in the east Crimean port of Feodosia.  Russia’s latest surprise assault came during the pre-dawn hours on Monday and involved both armoured personnel carriers and stun grenades.  The Ukrainian defence ministry announced that Russian paratroopers were lowered onto the Feodosia naval base from four helicopters in a commando-style operation in which guns were fired in the air and stun grenades strewn across the facility.  Less than two hours later, several military trucks were seen leaving the base with some Ukrainian marines whose hands had been tied.   The base in Feodosia housed Ukraine’s only marine battalion.  The country’s marine union indicated that it was home to an elite unit that was part of the navy.

Meanwhile on Monday, the Kremlin stamped its claim on Crimea with a symbolic visit by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, the first top Moscow official visit to Crimea since its March 16 independence referendum.  In comments broadcast on Russian state television, Shoigu stated, “in the last days, a group of officers has been checking and making sure there is no interim stage or anarchy, making sure that the military hardware does not fall into not the best hands.