MS Risk Blog

Deadly Ebola Virus Spreads to Liberia and Mali

The first cases of the Ebola virus have been confirmed in Liberia, after spreading from neighboring Guinea, where the deadly virus has already killed eighty-four people.  Meanwhile in Mali, officials are on high alert after three suspected cases were reported near the border area with Guinea.

Fears Virus Has Spread to Mali

Officials in Mali on Thursday indicated that they had detected three suspected victims of the Ebola virus, the deadly disease that has killed 84 people in Guinea.  Speaking to reporters in Bamako, Mali’s Health Minister Ousmane Kone stated that “three suspected cases of hemorrhagic fever have been detected in the country.  Samples have been taken and sent abroad for analysis.”  The Health Minister added that pending results from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, where the samples were sent, the patients were isolated and were receiving appropriate medication.  A statement issued by the government has indicated that the patients’ condition was currently improving and that the results of the tests will be made public as soon as they are known. 

Ebola Outbreak Confirmed in Liberia

Seven new patients has brought the total suspected Ebola cases in Liberia to fourteen.  Since reporting its first case of the hemorrhagic fever last month, six people have died, however officials in Liberia indicated Thursday that the first suspected Ebola case is now thought to be unconnected to the ongoing epidemic in neighboring Guinea, noting that the case may have originated separately within its borders.

According to Liberia’s chief medical officer Bernice Dahn, “we have a case in Tapeta where a hunter who has not had any contact with anyone coming from Guinea got sick,” adding “he was rushed to the hospital and died 30 minutes later.  He never had any interaction with someone suspected to be a carrier of the virus and he has never gone to Guinea.  This is an isolated case.”  If confirmed, the case in the eastern town of Tapeta would mark a worrying development in the fight against Ebola, as cases so far have been attributed to people returning with the infection from neighboring Guinea, where 84 people have died.  Tapeta, a small town in the eastern country of Nimba, is located 400 kilometers (250 miles) from the epicenter of the Ebola outbreak in southern Guinea.  It is also at least a five-hour drive and much further from the border than other suspected cases.

Of the six deaths, two were laboratory-confirmed Ebola cases – a woman who died in hospital in the northern county of Lofa and her sister who visited her.  The sister was allowed to return home to Monrovia before being hospitalized in the nearby Firestone Hospital.  Local authorities had isolated her and were monitoring her, her family and others with whom she may have had contact however Mr Dahn has since indicated that “…after being confirmed Ebola virus positive, the lady died this morning.”  He added that “we are now keeping surveillance on 44 people who have been in contact with the cases reported.”  The fruit bat, which is thought to be the host of the highly contagious Ebola virus, is a delicacy in the region that straddles Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with experts suspecting huntsmen to be the source of the outbreak.

Guinea Outbreak

The outbreak in Guinea had initially centered in the country’s remote south-eastern Forest Region of Nzerekore, where it took officials six weeks to identify the disease, effectively allowing it to spread over the borders and into the more populous regions of the country.  The first symptoms experienced were of a feverish sickness and they were observed on February 9.  The mysterious disease claimed at least 23 lives, out of a total of 36, before officials were able to identify it.  Since then, the outbreak has continued to spread, with officials confirming last week that it had spread to the capital, Conakry, which is a sprawling city of two million.

On Sunday, Guinea’s Health Ministry indicated that the country was now dealing with 122 “suspicious cases” of viral hemorrhagic fever, including at least 80 deaths.  However not all of the cases have been confirmed as the Ebola virus.  Medical Charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) has since stated that the Ebola outbreak in Guinea is “unprecedented,” adding that the spread of the disease across the country made it very difficult to control.  Guinea is now facing a battle to contain the outbreak after cases were reported in areas that are hundreds of kilometers apart.

Regional Concern

Over the past weekend, there has been a growing concern that the outbreak of the deadly virus may spread throughout West Africa.  According to Tarik Jasarevic, spokesman for the WHO, up to 400 people are identified as potential Ebola contacts in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Fears of the virus spreading further into West Africa prompted officials in Senegal to close the country’s normally busy border with Guinea.  Senegal’s Health Minister Awa Maria Coll-Seck confirmed Monday that the government had decided to close its border with Guinea after receiving confirmation that the virus had reached the country’s capital city Conakry.  According to Ms Coll-Seck, Senegal has also “…closed all weekly markets, known as luma, in the south.  And we’re having some discussions with religious leaders regarding big religious events.”

Officials in Sierra Leone also reported last week some suspected cases of the Ebola virus however these have not yet been confirmed.

The Ebola virus, which is one of the world’s most virulent diseases, was first discovered in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 1976.  The DRC has since had eight outbreaks of the disease, with the most recent epidemic, which occurred in the DRC between May and November 2012, infecting 62 people and leaving 34 dead.  Although there have been previous outbreaks amongst humans in Uganda, the Republic of Congo and Gabon, the disease had never before been detected in people in West Africa.  There have also been fears that the disease could one day be used in a biological weapons attack as, according to researches, the virus multiplies quickly, overwhelming the immune system’s ability to fight the infection.

If all cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Mali and Liberia are confirmed to be Ebola, this outbreak would be the most deadly epidemic since 187 people died in Luebo, in the Congo’s Kasai Orientale province in 2007.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), to date, no treatment or vaccine is available for Ebola, which kills between 25 and 90 percent of those who fall sick, depending on the strain of the virus.  The Zaire strain of Ebola, which has a 90 percent death rate, is the one that has been detected in Guinea.

Libyan Government, Former Prime Minister, Call for International Assistance in War on Terror

Speaking at a meeting in London, Libya’s former Prime Minister Ali Zeidan issued an alarming message that Libya could become “the next crucible of global terrorism.” He strongly urged Libya’s allies to assist the country from falling into collapse. Zeidan stated, “Libya could be a base for al-Qaeda for any operation to Italy, to Britain, to France, to Spain, to Morocco, to everywhere. Weapons are everywhere, ammunition is everywhere.” Zeidan urged Britain to increase its support to help to train Libyan security forces and to assist with economic and political reforms.

Libya’s engagement in the Arab Spring of 2011 took the form of a civil war which ultimately saw the death of Dictator Muammar Gadhafi and the end of his regime. However, despite the end of autocratic rule, the nation has remained in turmoil. Weaponry looted from the regime, valued in the millions of dollars, remains prolific on the black market and in the hands of tribal militias and Islamic extremist groups. Factions have seized Libya’s oil assets and land in the eastern part of the nation, threatening to form an autonomous nation. The Libyan government had been reluctant to launch offensives against the militias and extremist groups for fear that those same groups would exploit the added chaos.

Zeidan’s warning is dire: Libya has become ungovernable, and requires a UN peacekeeping force to prevent al-Qaeda or inspired derivatives from gaining a stronghold in the region. The northern part of the nation extends into the Mediterranean Sea, making it a gateway for illegal immigrants or dangerous individuals to access Europe.

The former prime minister added that Libya’s General National Congress is no longer legitimate, and feels that and new elections should be held to bring in a new interim authority. However, he remains sympathetic to the role he left: “Do you think it is a privilege to be prime minister of Libya at this time? It is some kind of suffering. What it has cost me in terms of my nerves and my health over these 15 months, it was unbelievable.

Zeidan served as prime minister for 15 months, during which he was kidnapped and held by a rebel faction. In March, he was ousted from Libya’s parliament in a vote of no confidence following escalating chaos culminating the government’s inability to prevent rebels in the east from attempting to illegally export Libyan oil. Libya has the largest known oil reserves in Africa, approximately 47 billion barrels. Currently, several ports in the east are in the hands of rebel factions.

Zeidan has since fled to Germany, where he had lived previously while in opposition against Gadhafi. However he is preparing to return to Libya in the near future, with intentions to restore stability to his nation.

Simultaneously, the Libyan government has also called for help and declared a “War on Terror”. A statement released on 25 March by the Council of Ministers states, “Libya’s interim government asks the international community and especially the United Nations to provide assistance to uproot terrorism […] the government confirms that it wants this war on terror to start as soon as possible.”

The statement continues, “The nation is now confronting terrorist groups which requires making security and military resources available to fight such epidemic and bring peace and security to our cities […] the interim government asks the world community, especially the United Nations to provide the needed support in order to eradicate terrorism from Libyan cities.

The statement marks the first time in Libyan history that the government has called for outside help to fight terrorists on Libyan soil. The call for help comes after a wave of bombings and assassinations in Benghazi, Derna and Sirte. In Benghazi, killings or injuries through shooting or car bombs, have occurred on a near daily basis. Opposition to the declaration of war on terrorism has already emerged, particularly amongst Islamist supporters in the nation, who feel they will be targeted for their political leanings.

On 28 March, Tarek Mitri, Chief of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) visited Tunisia’s capital, Tunis, to officially request help. Mitri spoke with Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki and Ennahda Party head Rachid Ghannouchi. Reportedly, Mitri asked the Tunisian government, which is on the road to recovery following their 2010 uprising, to share experiences regarding democratic transition and national dialogue.

Echoing the distress, a video has been released of Saddi Gadhafi, son of the former dictator. Saadi, who fled to Niger during the revolution, was extradited to Libya earlier this year. He is accused of trying to suppress the uprising against his father’s rule.

In the video, he says, “I apologise to the Libyan people, and I apologise to the dear brothers in the Libyan government for all the harm I’ve caused and for disturbing the security and stability of Libya. I admit that these things were wrong, and we should not have perpetrated these acts.” He also called on “those who carry weapons to hand over their weapons”. Saadi’s brother, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, remains in the hands of rebels in Zintan, where he was captured in November 2011.

There is no official word yet from the UK or the UN regarding support for action in Libya.

Tensions Rise on the Korean Peninsula as North and South Korea Exchange Fire

Tensions rose on Monday as North and South Korea traded hundreds of rounds of live artillery fire across their disputed maritime border, forcing South Korean islanders to take shelter just one day after the North increased tensions by threatening to carry out a “new” nuclear test.

South Korean officials indicated Monday that they had returned fire after North Korean shells landed in its territorial waters.  In an attempt to ensure maximum publicity for its live-fire drill, North Korea took an unusual step by notifying the South beforehand.  The live-fire exercises were announced by North Korea in a faxed message from its military to the South’s navy, with South Korea warning of an immediate retaliation if any shells were to cross its border.

A statement released by South Korea’s Defence Ministry indicated “some of (North Korea’s) shells landed south of the border during the drill.  So our military fired back north of the border in line with ordinary protocol.”  South Korea further stated that the sides exchanged hundreds of shells, with Defence Ministry spokesman Kim Min-Seok indicating that “the North fired some 500 shots…and some 100 of them landed in waters south of the border.”  In response, the spokesman indicated that the South had responded to Pyongyang’s “premeditated provocation” by firing 300 shells from K-9 self-propelled howitzer batteries that are based on its front-line islands, adding “if the North takes issue with our legitimate returning of fire and uses it to make yet another provocation towards our sea and islands, we will make a resolute retaliation.”  During the three-hour incident, which began at 12:15PM (0315 GMT), border island residents were evacuated to shelters as South Korean fighter jets flew overhead.  The evacuation order was lifted an hour after the North ended its drills.

While China, which is North Korea’s largest trading partner, has called for calm and restraint in the wake of the exchange of fire, Monday’s incident, which comes a day after Pyongyang threatened to conduct a “new” type of nuclear test, has largely been seen as a sign of the North’s growing frustration with the United States’ resistance to resume multi-party talks on its nuclear programme.  The nuclear negotiations are seen by Pyongyang as an opportunity for it to win material concessions and aid from the international community.   Monday’s incident also coincided with a massive, amphibious landing drill by nearly 15,000 South Korean and US troops.

Tensions Increased Over Past Few Weeks

While Monday’s incident is not the first to occur in recent year, North-South tensions have been rising for weeks, undermining hopes that were raised after the North in February of this year hosted the first reunion for more than three years of families that were separated by the war.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula have been on the rise after North Korea last week test-fired two medium-range Nodong missiles over the sea, its first such launch since 2009.  According to the South Korean defence ministry, the missiles were fired from the Suckon region north of Pyongyang and flew for about 650 kilometres (400 miles) before falling into the sea off the east coast of the Korean peninsula.  Ministry spokesman Kim Min-Seok stated that the Nodong “…is capable of hitting not only most of Japan but also Russia and China.”  The launch came shortly after US, South Korean and Japanese officials met for talks in the Netherlands.  It also came on the fourth anniversary of the sinking of a South Korean warship.

The launch of the two missiles marked a step up from the short-range rockets Pyongyang has fired in recent weeks.   Those launches were seen as a response to the current US-South Korea annual military exercises.  To date, North Korea has conducted three nuclear tests, with the most recent, and most powerful, occurring in February last year.

While the United Nations drew the western border after the Korean War (1950 – 1953), North Korea has never recognised it and the area has been a flashpoint between the two Koreas.  It argues that the de-facto maritime boundary was unilaterally drawn by US-led United Nations forces.  In late 2010, four South Koreans, two marines and two civilians, were killed on a border island by North Korean artillery fire.  At the time, North Korea stated that it was responding to South Korean military exercises that were occurring in the area.  Tensions were already high that year after a South Korean warship sank near Baengnyeong island, resulting in the deaths of forty-six people.  At the time, Seoul stated that Pyongyan had torpedoed the vessel, however North Korea denied any role in the incident.  Border fire was also briefly exchanged in August 2011.

US Urges Russia to Stop “Intimidating” Ukraine

United States President Barack Obama has urged Russia to stop “intimidating” Ukraine and to cut the number of troops it has deployed to its eastern border.  The statement by Mr Obama comes as ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych called for a national referendum to determine each region’s “status within Ukraine.”

Speaking on Thursday, Mr Obama stated that the move by Russia may “be an effort to intimidate Ukraine, or it may be that Russia has additional plans.”  He added that President Vladimir Putin had been “willing to show a deeply-held grievance about what he considers to be the loss of the Soviet Union.”  He also warned that the Russian leader should not “revert back to the kinds of practices that were so prevalent during the Cold War,” adding “I think there’s a strong sense of Russian nationalism and a sense that somehow the West has taken advantage of Russia in the past.”

Russia is believed to have deployed a force of several thousand troops close to Ukraine’s eastern frontier.  Although the Kremlin has stated that it has no plans to take over the eastern regions of Ukraine, tensions in Ukraine and in other former Soviets states have continued to rise.

A new classified intelligence assessment has also concluded that it is more likely than previously that Russian forces will enter eastern Ukraine.  Although US intelligence officials have emphasized that nothing is certain, they have indicated that over the past three to four days, there have been several worrying signs.  According to one official, “this has shifted our thinking that the likelihood of a further Russian incursion is more probable than it was previously thought to be.”  The build up along Russia’s eastern border with Ukraine is reminiscent of Moscow’s military moves before it went into Chechnya and Georgia in both numbers of units and their capabilities.

The assessment makes several new points including:

• Troops on Russia’s border with eastern Ukraine, which exceed 30,000, are “significantly more” than what is needed for the “exercises” Russia says it has been conducting, and there is no sign the forces are making any move to return to their home bases.
• The troops on the border with Ukraine include large numbers of “motorized” units that can quickly move.  Additional Special Forces, airborne troops, air transport and other units that would be needed appear to be at a higher state of mobilization in other locations in Russia.
• Russian troops already on the border include air defence artillery and wheeled vehicles.

According to US intelligence officials, there is additional intelligence that even more Russian forces are “reinforcing” the border region.  All of the troops are in  positions for potential military action.  The US currently believes that Russia may decide to enter eastern Ukraine in order to establish a land bridge into Crimea.  The belief is that Russian forces would move toward three Ukrainian cities:  Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Luhansk in order to establish land access into Crimea.  According to US intelligence information, Russian forces are currently positioned in and around Rostov, Kursk and Belgorod.

In response to growing unrest amongst Western leaders, a Russian security official has also stated that intelligence measures are now being stepped up in order to counter Western threats to Moscow’s influence.  Alexander Malevany, deputy head of the Federal Security Service (FSB) was quoted as saying “there has been a sharp increase in external threats to the state.  The lawful desire of the peoples of Crimea and eastern Ukrainian regions is causing hysteria in the United States and its allies.”  He added that Russia was taking “offensive intelligence measures” to counter Western efforts to “weaken Russian influence in a region that is of vital importance to Moscow.”

Meanwhile on Thursday, Ukraine’s highly-divisive opposition leader, and former premier Yulia Tymoshenko, announced her plans to run in the presidential polls which have been set for 25 May 2014, following last month’s fall of a pro-Kremlin regime.   The dramatic announcement completes a highly improbable return to national politics that underscores the scale of changes that have shaken the former Soviet republic in the past few weeks.

Speaking to reporters shortly after walking into a pressroom, the 53-year-old confirmed “I intend to run for president of Ukraine.”  In 2010, Tymoshenko, one of the most charismatic and outspoken leaders of Ukraine’s 2004 pro-democracy Orange Revolution, lost a close presidential poll to Victor Yanukovych after heading two pro-Western cabinets that became embroiled in fighting and eventually lost popular support.  During her speech, Tymoshenko attempted to paint herself as a compromise figure who could look after the interests of her older supporters but who could also be able to find common ground with the Russian speakers who are now looking towards the Kremlin for assistance.

Shortly after the 2010 vote, her political downfall was rapid and seemingly fatal as Yanukovych’s government quickly launched a series of criminal probes against his political rival.  This led to a controversial trial over Tymoshenko’s role in agreeing to a 2009 gas contract with Russia that many Ukrainians though came at too high a cost.  In October 2011, she was convicted of abusing her power and was subsequently sentenced to seven years in prison, a sentencing that Western nations denounced as the use of selective justice.

However on 22 February 2014, the day the Ukrainian parliament ousted Yanukovych for his role in the deaths of nearly 100 protesters in Kiev earlier that month, she emerged triumphantly from a state hospital, where she had spent most of her sentence under guard.  Hours after her release, she arrived at the protest square in the heart of Kiev, which had also served as the crucible of the 2004 pro-democracy movement that had propelled her political career.  However the crowd’s reception of Tymoshenko was guarded, a sign of their growing weariness of the corruption allegations that had been made against her.  Many now believe that the pro-Western government movement that Tymoshenko once headed is now looking towards a new generation of leaders who played a more prominent role in the latest protests and who now hold key position sin the new interim government.

Twenty-First Century Soviet Union: Could Moscow be Looking Towards Annexing States in Eastern Europe?

With the annexation of Crimea, there have been growing Western concerns of the rising number of Russian troops along the country’s eastern border with Ukraine.   Although Moscow has denied that President Vladimir Putin has an ambitious plan to resurrect vestiges of the Soviet empire and stamp his authority over eastern European nations that sought protection from the West following the 1989 fall of the Berlin wall, the presence of 30,000 troops stationed along the border is nevertheless alarming.  Furthermore, while Moscow originally stated that it was intervening in Crimea because of concerns over the ill-treatment of Russians there, who make up more than half of the population, since Crimea’s annexation, Russia has done little to ease Eastern European fears of further takeovers.  The question now remains, could similar action take place in other parts of the former Soviet Union?

Eastern Ukraine

Since the ouster of Ukrainian President Victor Yanukovych in February 2014, there have been frequent pro-Russian demonstrations that have taken place in Donetsk as well as in other cities in eastern Ukraine.  So far, at least one person has been killed.  Russians however have blamed far-right pro-Western demonstrators for escalating tensions throughout the country.

With Russian troops having staged military exercises near the border, and Ukrainian officials claiming Thursday that 100,000 Russian forces have massed on Ukraine’s border, it would not be difficult for them to move across into Ukraine itself.

If Putin is indeed considering more territorial expansion, than eastern Ukraine is likely to be high on his list.  The political costs however would be high, with NATO and Western leaders already warning Moscow against further expansionism.

Although Crimea, which was previously Russian territory, became part of the Ukraine in 1954, Ukraine’s eastern border goes back much further, ties which could be used by Putin in any possible future take overs.

Moldova

A great deal of attention has also focused on Trans-Dniester, a separatist region of Moldova, which has already offered itself to Moscow.  Proclaiming independence in 1990, which has never been recognised internationally, Trans-Dniester is majority Russian-speaking while most Moldovans speak Romanian.  NATO’s commander in Europe has warned that Trans-Dneister may be Russia’s next target as Moscow has already deployed 1,000 troops to the region, which borders Ukraine, near the city of Odessa.

The southern region of Gagauzia, an autonomous region of Moldova which is made up of four enclaves with a total population of 160,000 also held a referendum in February 2014, in which 98.4% of voters backed integration with a Russia-led customs union.  The Moldovan government has stated that the referendum was illegitimate.

Georgia

Russia’s 2008 brief war with Georgia resulted in two areas breaking away, South Ossetia and Abkhazi.  Although Abkhazia had already declared independence unilaterally in 1999, since the 2008 war, the two enclaves have existed in a grey zone as they are not recognized internationally, nor are they formally are part of Russia.  Although Moscow’s stated aim at the time was to protect Russian speakers, most residents are native speakers of Ossetian and Abkhaz respectively.  Furthermore, most residents hold Russian passports and are opposed to the Georgian government in Tbilisi.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania

Although the Baltic republics regained their independence following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990’s, Russians account for about a third of the population in both Estonia and Latvia.  Due to the fact that both Latvia and Estonia require knowledge of their languages in order to gain citizenship, some Russian speakers born in the countries are either unable or unwilling to become citizens.  Many Russian speakers have complained of discrimination, stating that the strict language laws make it difficult for them to get jobs.  This treatment was echoed by the Kremlin in mid-March of this year, with officials expressing “outrage” at the treatment of ethnic Russians in Estonia, the same reason, which they gave for intervening in Crimea.       

In Lithuania, ethnic Russians make up about 5% of the population and there is no requirement for them to pass a language test in order to attain citizenship.

However what must be noted is that in the case of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, all three Baltic states are members of both the European Union and NATO.  Therefore any Russian incursion would have serious consequences as article 5 of the NATO treaty states that an attack on one member state is an attack on all.

Belarus 

Currently, there is no reason why Russia would seek to intervene in Belarus as the country is already closely aligned with Moscow.  Furthermore, Belarus is an economic union with Russia, and Russian is an official language.  Although only 8.3% of the population identifies itself as Russian, more than 70% speak the language.

Northern Kazakhstan 

Ties between Russia and Kazakhstan go back to tsarist times, when northern cities such as Pavlodar and Uralsk were founded by the Russians as military outposts.  Russians currently account for more than half of the population in northern Kazakhstan which, like Crimea, was once a part of Russia itself.

Like Ukraine, Kazakhstan signed an agreement on nuclear disarmament in 1994 in exchange for protection.  It has no port like Sevastopol in Crimea, however it does have the Baikonur space facility.

Although Kazakhstan already has close ties with Russia, as it is one of two other members, along with Belarus, of Moscow’s customs union, it has remained officially neutral in the matter of Ukraine.

Other Central Asian Republics

After independence in 1991, large numbers of Russians emigrated to central Asia, with the percentage of ethnic Russians in the region now ranging from 1.1% in Tajikistan to 12.5% in Kyrgyzstan.  However it must be noted that the Central Asian economies remain tied to Russia, bot in terms of trade and remittances from migrants working there.

While it therefore seems unlikely that Moscow would seek to intervene in the region, the post-Crimea turmoil could still have an affect on the area.  As the Russian rouble falls, and sanctions hit Russian businesses, jobless migrants returning from Russia could cause trouble for the governments in Dushanbe or Bishkek.

Armenia and Azerbaijan 

Although Armenia has no Russian population to speak of, and Azerbaijan has just 1%, both countries tread a geopolitical tightrope between Russia and the West.  Furthermore, since Aremenia gained its independence in 1991, Russia has retained a military base at Gyumri.

As was the case in Ukraine, Armenia had been preparing to sign an association agreement with the EU, however in September 2013, officials in the country announced that Armenia would be joining the Russian-led customs union instead.

Azerbaijan on the other hand is less economically dependent on Russia as it exports oil and natural gas to the EU.  A pipeline that ends in Turkey effectively allows it to skirt Russian territory.

Russia would like to keep both countries in its sphere of influence, however in the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia is more likely to use economic, as opposed to military, measures.

Poland and the Baltics

Outside of Russia’s direct neighbours, countries such as Poland and those in the Baltics have also caused unease, with a sense that they too are under threat.

Poland

Although leaders in Poland have played down the danger, repeatedly reassuring the public, there remains a widespread sense of insecurity throughout the country.

While during an event to celebrate the 15^th anniversary of Poland joining NATO, Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that he saw no direct threat to his country, a view that has been echoed by Poland’s President Bronislaw Komorowski, an opinion poll has shown that 59% of respondents believed Russia’s foreign policy presented a threat to Poland’s security.  Some have stated that they “…feel threatened by Russia because we’re next.  Ukraine is first, then the Baltic countries and then Russia’s President Putin will make something bad here.”  These fears have been echoed across the country, with one resident stating “now they want to attack Ukraine but we are neighbours so I don’t think Poland is safe, especially because we have a shred history with Russia, and they were always aggressors.”  While these remarks to not directly indicate that most Poles fear that Russia is about to launch a military attack on the, their shared history however has generated a widespread mistrust of Russia and its leadership.

During the 18^th century Catherine the Great annexed eastern Poland, with the country not regaining its independence until the end of World War One.  However after just two decades of freedom, the Soviet Union invaded eastern Poland just two weeks after Nazi Germany marched into western Poland in 1939.  While the Red Army liberated Poland from the Nazis in 1945, this liberation was seen by many as a simple transfer of power, from one enemy to the next.  Upon removing Nazi troops out of Poland, Joseph Stalin quickly installed a Soviet-backed communist system throughout the country, with the last Soviet troops leaving Poland in 1993.

According to Marcin Zaborowski, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs, “…there is a sense that certain boundaries have been crossed, that precedents have been created and because of that its not clear where Putin is going to stop,” adding that “this clearly unprovoked aggression against another state is in breach of international law.  It doesn’t seem wise to hang on to the belief Putin’s not going to go further.”

Poland’s growing insecurity however is not solely tied to the country, but is also shared by the Baltic countries, which were also incorporated into the Soviet Union after World War Two.

Baltic States

Lithuania’s President Dalia Grybauskaite warned last week that Russia was trying to redraw the post-war map of Europe, adding that while Ukraine is likely to be the next on Putin’s list, Moldova, the Baltics and Poland would be next.

Estonia and Latvia both have large Russian minorities, which is of concern considering Putin’s justification for occupying Crimea has been to protect ethnic Russians there.

Military Boost 

In response of growing fears of a possible Russian takeover of Poland and/or the Baltics, the United States has announced that it is increasing its military cooperation with Poland and the Baltic states.  Officials have indicated that the US is sending six more F-15 fighters and a KC-135 refuelling tanker to increase its support for NATO’s patrolling of Baltic airspace.

In Poland, about 300 US air force personnel and 12 US F-16 fighters will be deployed for a joint training exercise.  This is a significant boost to the 10 US airmen who are already stationed in the country.  However the United States response will not solely focus on military aspects, but will also concentrate on the energy issue, which has developed out of the Ukrainian crisis.  According to sources in Poland, “our prime minister and president have said we have to work more intensely towards energy independence.  Energy is vital because the threat is not just of a military nature, its also about turning the gas taps off.”  Poland has already experienced this switch-off as much of Russia’s gas supplies to Europe transit Ukraine while on its way West.  In 2009, a price dispute between the Ukraine and Russia halted supplies to many European countries.

Despite the 2009 issue, Poland and the Baltic countries remained dependent on Russian gas supplies, with Poland last year importing 60% of the gas consumed by industry and households from Russian gas company Gazprom.  According to Poland’s Prime Minister Tusk, Central and Eastern Europe’s dependence on Russian gas effectively gave Putin too much leverage.  However after years of stating that it should liberate itself from independence of Russia’s gas supplies, and not doing much about it, Poland is now diversifying its gas sources.

By the end of this year, Poland is set to complete construction of a liquefied natural gas terminal to import gas from Qatar.  It has also increased the capacity of interconnector pipelines with German and the Czech Republic in order to boost supplies from those markets.  Poland also hopes to start producing its own shale gas in the future.