MS Risk Blog

Somali and African Union Troops Recapture Key Port from al-Shabaab Militants

On Monday, Somali military commanders celebrated the capture of the last major port city held by al-Shabaab insurgents as security forces secured control of the town for the first time in over two decades.

On Sunday, local officials reported that Somali government troops, backed by African Union (AU) forces, had captured one of al-Shabaab’s remaining strategic strongholds in Somalia. Sources reported that the key port town of Barawe, located 200 kilometres (125 miles) south of Mogadishu, was now under the control of the Somali army and AU forces. The operation was launched Friday, with residents reporting that many of the al-Qaeda-linked militants had begun to withdraw from the key port town before troops began to arrive.

Speaking to hundreds of residents on Monday, Somali military commander Abdirisak Khalif Elmi confirmed that “al-Shabaab are no longer in Barawe,” and called on citizens to support the government. Tanks and armoured vehicles were seen patrolling the town Monday, as government forces continued operations to secure the port city. While some troops conducted house-to-house searches for weapons, the majority of soldiers were setting up bases just outside the town. Residents reported Monday that the port city was quiet, with no fighting. A statement released by the AU’s AMISOM force, which includes 22,000 soldiers from six nations, indicated that Barawe fell without “much resistance from the terrorist group.”

According to AU officials, the port town, which had been under the control of al-Shabaab for the past six years, was being used by the militant group as a base to launch attacks in the central and southern regions of Somalia, specifically the capital city. The port city was also a major source of revenue for the militant group. According to UN estimates, al-Shabaab exported charcoal through Barawe to Gulf countries, earning at least US $25 million a year from the trade, which was then used to fund their operations.   It is seen as a major blow to the insurgents and comes just one month after the death of their leader Ahmed Abdi Godane, who was killed in a US air and drone strike. In the wake of their leader’s death, al-Shabaab vowed to avenge their leader’s death and to continue their fight to topple the country’s internationally backed government. On Saturday, al-Shabaab commander Mohamed Abu Abdallah reiterated that the militia would continue to stage attacks.

Over the past several months, al-Shabaab has lost several key towns as Somali and AU forces launched a new offensive to force the militant group out of their remaining strongholds in the central and southern regions of the country. The group however continues to control large territory in rural areas, which will likely be the next focus of the offensive once the major towns in the region have been secured. Al-Shabaab is known to tactically withdraw from areas when faced with a large offensive, however some fighters usually remain to launch attacks at a later point. It is likely that some militants may have stayed back in Barawe in a bid to launch attacks in the port city.

Nine UN Peacekeepers Killed in Northern Mali

In another incident that targeted United Nations peacekeepers in Mali, on Friday nine UN peacekeepers were killed in an ambush on their convoy, the deadliest attack to occur on the UN mission in Mali.

According to Olivier Salgado, spokesman for the mission, the peacekeepers, who were all from neighbouring Niger, came under attack from heavily armed gunmen on motorbikes between the northeastern towns of Menaka and Ansongo. A statement released by the UN mission indicated “this morning, a convoy of MINUSMA peacekeepers from the Nigerien continent was the target of a direct attack while travelling to Indelimane, in the Menaka-Asongo corridor. A provisional toll indicated nine deaths.” UN officials have deployed aircraft to the region to secure the area where the attack took place, just 15 kilometres (9 miles) east of Indelimane.

While MINSUMA officials have not disclosed who was behind Friday’s attack, a UN officer from Niger has indicated that militants from the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), an al-Qaeda-linked Islamist militia, were behind it. Sources have reported that MUJAO recently formed an alliance with militants from the Fulani ethnic group in the Gao region, where Friday’s attack took place. Menaka, an isolated desert town in eastern Mali is used mainly as a temporary refuge for nomadic Tuareg tribes however in May, it was the scene of intense fighting between the Malian government and three main separatist rebel groups.

In recent weeks, attacks on UN peacekeepers have sharply increased. Over the past few weeks, roadside bombs in the Kidal region have killed ten UN peacekeepers, all from Chad. The attacks prompted the government in N’Djamena to issue a statement to the UN indicating that the Chadian contingent of MINUSMA was suffering discrimination. In August, MUJAO claimed responsibility for a rocket attack on a MINUSMA base located close to the border with Algeria. They were also blamed for a suicide attack on August 16 that killed two soldiers from Burkina Faso serving with MINUSMA in the settlement of Ber, near the city of Timbuktu. Friday’s attack further underlines the fact that security in the northern region of Mali continues to be fragile, with militant groups continuing to operate in the region, and carrying out hit-and-run attacks despite the presence of foreign forces.

UN-led Talks in Libya Halted

2 October– The group Fajr Libya (Dawn of Libya) has rejected UN-led talks that have called for a cease-fire in the struggling nation. Fajr Libya, an Islamist group based out of Misrata, took control of Tripoli and the country’s top religious body, Dar al-Ifta, in September. The battle for Tripoli caused nearly 25,000 residents to flee their homes and caused foreign nationals to evacuate the nation. Fajr Libya reinstated the outgoing government– Islamist dominated General National Congress (GNC) – forcing the House of Representatives, the newly elected and internationally recognised government, to operate from Tobruk. The move created two rival and hostile centres of government power, both of whom consider the other to be illegitimate.

Fajr Libya’s rejection of UN-brokered talks came after a day or attempted reconciliation on in Monday in Libya’s south-western town of Ghadames. UN mission chief Bernardino Leon described the first day as “positive” and “constructive.” After Monday’s talks, both sides had agreed on the need for a ceasefire, for humanitarian aid for victims of clashes in Tripoli, and to work to reopen airports closed by fighting.

On Tuesday, however, momentum was halted after Dar al-Ifta, led by hard-liner al-Sadek al-Gharyani, announced that Libya’s “clerics demand the suspension of talks with the Tobruk parliament.” The suspension is pending a Supreme Constitutional Court on the legitimacy of the House of Representatives, and whether the Tobruk-based government violated the constitution by calling the militias “terrorists” and asking for international intervention. The body no one has “the right to negotiate” with Tobruk-based lawmakers because they deviated from the principles of Islam and Libya.

The Tripoli-based Supreme Constitutional Court is supposed to rule next month, but diplomats fear it will not be able to issue an independent verdict as it is controlled by Fajr Libya.

The Fajr Libya coalition has since denounced the dialogue and declared that it was continuing with its “military operations.” The group posted on their Facebook page that the way to end the fighting is to “disarm its rivals and hunt down their leaders.” Similarly, the eastern based Shura of Benghazi Revolutionaries issued a similar statement rejecting the initiative as “unfair”.

These moves underscore the polarisation that has divided the nation since the overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. From Tobruk, the new government has denounced Fajr Libya, calling the assault on Tripoli an act of terrorism. The group passed a resolution to disarm militias controlling the capital.

In the next move, the UN seeks to meet with the boycotting militias to reignite talks. Bernardino Leon seeks to get militias out of the main cities, and then to “reorganize the security in the country with an army.” Fajr Libya has not made comment on the attempts by the UN, However one Misrata based representative said, “We have to comply to what the Dar al-Ifta has called for.”

Meanwhile, a former Libyan militia leader, Abdelhakim Belhadj, has put himself forward as the “saviour” for Libya. Belhadj is a self-described former jihadi who fought against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan with Osama bin Laden when the group had the backing of the US. Belhadj claims he was later abducted and “rendered” by the CIA, but vehemently disavows any ties to Al Qaeda “as organization or even as an ideology.”

Currently, Belhadj is the leader of Libya’s conservative al-Watan party. While he does not have great electoral success, he does have great influence among the militia groups. He says he supports negotiations between the opposition parties, and backs the exiled government in Tobruk. He states, “We have to unite around one goal, which is a democratic state, and to build relationships with other countries based on mutual trust and mutual respect […] The growth of terrorism now is something that we oppose strongly and we will make every effort to deal with it in a way that is in line with the vision of the majority of Libyans.”

First Ebola Case Confirmed Outside of Africa

The first case of the deadly Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) diagnosed on US soil has been confirmed in Dallas, Texas. Officials confirmed Tuesday that the unidentified male patient is being kept in isolation at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital and have pledged to contain the virus that has already killed more than 3,000 people in West Africa.

It is believed that the man contracted the virus in Liberia prior to traveling to the US to visit family members nearly two weeks ago. He arrived in the US on September 20. Symptoms of the virus became apparent on September 24, with the patient being admitted to hospital on the 26^th and placed in isolation on September 28. While previously US aid workers have come back to the US, after catching Ebola in West Africa, this is the first case of a patient developing the virus on US soil. It is believed that the patient was not in Liberia as part of on-going efforts to combat the spread of the virus there.

Health officials have disclosed that they are currently identifying all people who came into contact with the unnamed patient while he was infectious however officials at the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention have cautioned that since he was not sick on the plane, he was unlikely to have infected other travellers as Ebola is not contagious until the patient begins to display symptoms, which can include fatigue, fever, muscle aches, vomiting, diarrhoea and bleeding. According to CDC chief Tom Frieden, “at this point there is zero risk of transmission on the flight. The illness of Ebola would not have gone on for 10 days before diagnosis…he was checked for fever before getting on the flight and there is no reason to think that anyone on the flight that he was on would be at risk.” Anyone to have had contact with the patient will be monitored for a period of 21 days. According to Mr Frieden, currently there are only a “handful” of people, mainly family members, believed to have come in contact with the patient while he was sick.   While measures, such as checking temperatures, have been implemented at airports and border crossings across the affected countries in West Africa, this case has demonstrated that patients deemed Ebola-free when leaving an infected region may not necessarily be free of the virus, but may only be not displaying any symptoms at the time.

Latest figures released by the World Health Organization (WHO) indicate that the world’s largest outbreak of Ebola has infected more than 6,500 people across five West African countries, killing 3,091 since the start of this year.

The beginning of the West Africa outbreak has been identified as a two-year-old boy in Guinea who became sick with EVD in December 2013. While experts do not know how the child came down with the virus, some believe that he may have come in contact with an infected fruit bat, which are the natural hosts for the virus. Since then, the disease has spread rapidly, primarily affecting Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. In July, Ebola was confirmed in Nigeria when a dual US-Liberian citizen, who flew on a pane from Liberia to Lagos, died days later. The outbreak there killed eight and infected 20 people, however WHO officials have indicated that while Nigeria is not yet Ebola-free, the spread of the deadly virus has been contained, with no new confirmed cases reported since the beginning of September. One patient was also confirmed to have Ebola in Senegal, however like in Nigeria, the spread of the disease has been contained. The last confirmed case of Ebola reported in Senegal occurred on 28 August.

Egypt, Turkey Relations Deteriorate

30 September– In the face of rapidly deteriorating relations between Egypt and Turkey, calls are emerging for a boycott of Turkish goods after Turkey’s president, Recip Tayyip, Erdogan questioned the legitimacy of the Egyptian government at two international in one week.

Background

The unravelling of diplomatic ties between Egypt and Turkey began shortly after the popular overthrow of former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, led by current Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in 2013. Prior to Morsi’s overthrow, relations between Egypt and Turkey were strong. The nations coordinated in response to the Syrian conflict and the Middle East peace process, and Cairo and Ankara also signed over 25 bilateral cooperation agreements.

Since the Morsi’s overthrow in overthrow, Egyptian security forces have conducted a fierce crackdown on Morsi’s political group, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). Erdogan has been unabashedly supportive of Morsi and the MB, which was declared a terrorist organisation in Egypt in December 2013. In November 2013, Egypt and Turkey downgraded diplomatic ties as both countries expelled the other’s ambassador, labelling them “persona non-grata.” Sisi was elected president of Egypt in June 2014.

Harsh Words at UNGA, WEF

Diplomatic relations reached a new low at the UN General Assembly meeting in New York. On Wednesday, the Turkish delegation reportedly boycotted a speech by the Egyptian president. Hours later, Erdogan used a portion of his time at the lectern to condemn the Egyptian government and appeal to the UN, “The United Nations as well as the democratic countries have done nothing but watch the events such as overthrowing the elected president in Egypt and the killings of thousands of innocent people who want to defend their choice. And the person who carried out this coup is being legitimized.” He added, “If we defend democracy, then let’s respect the ballot box. If we will defend those who come to power not with democracy but with a coup then I wonder why this U.N. exists.”

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry released a  statement  condemning Erdogan’s comments: “There is no doubt that the fabrication of such lies and fabrications are not something strange that comes from the Turkish President, who is keen to provoke chaos to sow divisions in the Middle East region through its support for groups and terrorist organizations.”

Four days later, as the keynote speaker at the World Economic Forum in Istanbul on Sunday, Erdogan recast his aspersions of Egypt’s government. He emphasised that the “coup is legitimised by the international community,” and asked attendees at the WEF “Is the UN the place where people who plot coups speak?”

By Monday, the Egyptian foreign released another statement that claiming that Erdogan is “not in a position to give lessons to others about democracy and respect for human rights and appoint himself the guardian of them.” The statement adds that Erdogan “did not hesitate to change the political system… and change the Turkish constitution in order to continue in power for ten years to come,” and this “cannot be described as the behaviour of democrats”.

Calls for Boycott

Tarek Mahmoud, Secretary General for the Coalition to Support the Tahya Masr Fund, has called for the closure of Turkish cultural centres in Cairo and Alexandria, citing that Turkish cultural centres are a “threat to national security.” The coalition will also boycott all companies affiliated with Turkey. Egyptian lawyer Samir Sabri filed a lawsuit last week to force the Egyptian government to ban the entry of Turkish products into the country. A court is expected to rule on the case on 2 December.

Others calling for the boycott of Turkish products, or the boycott of Turkey as a travel destination include television anchor and writer Gamal Anayet; political analyst Michel Fahmi; Bassem Halaqa, head of Egypt’s Tourist Guides Union; writer Reem Eid; and members of the Congress Party founded by former Egyptian presidential candidate Amr Moussa.

Regional Response

Many regional governments have spoken out about Erdogan’s comments. The United Arab Emirates said Erdogan’s UN speech was “unacceptable and contradicts diplomatic norms.” This was echoed by Secretary General of the Arab League, Nabil El-Araby, who called Erdogan’s comments “interference of internal Arab affairs.” Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam of Lebanon announced Sunday he would like to mediate between Erdoğan and Sisi to heal the rift, adding “I hope such a mediation could be done.”

To some extent, nations in the Middle East appear to have taken sides based on support or opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood. In the face of increasing security threats across the region, political infighting could be detrimental to attempts to combat terrorist threats such as ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and Al Qaeda threats across the Gulf and the Maghreb.