MS Risk Blog

UN-led Talks in Libya Halted

2 October– The group Fajr Libya (Dawn of Libya) has rejected UN-led talks that have called for a cease-fire in the struggling nation. Fajr Libya, an Islamist group based out of Misrata, took control of Tripoli and the country’s top religious body, Dar al-Ifta, in September. The battle for Tripoli caused nearly 25,000 residents to flee their homes and caused foreign nationals to evacuate the nation. Fajr Libya reinstated the outgoing government– Islamist dominated General National Congress (GNC) – forcing the House of Representatives, the newly elected and internationally recognised government, to operate from Tobruk. The move created two rival and hostile centres of government power, both of whom consider the other to be illegitimate.

Fajr Libya’s rejection of UN-brokered talks came after a day or attempted reconciliation on in Monday in Libya’s south-western town of Ghadames. UN mission chief Bernardino Leon described the first day as “positive” and “constructive.” After Monday’s talks, both sides had agreed on the need for a ceasefire, for humanitarian aid for victims of clashes in Tripoli, and to work to reopen airports closed by fighting.

On Tuesday, however, momentum was halted after Dar al-Ifta, led by hard-liner al-Sadek al-Gharyani, announced that Libya’s “clerics demand the suspension of talks with the Tobruk parliament.” The suspension is pending a Supreme Constitutional Court on the legitimacy of the House of Representatives, and whether the Tobruk-based government violated the constitution by calling the militias “terrorists” and asking for international intervention. The body no one has “the right to negotiate” with Tobruk-based lawmakers because they deviated from the principles of Islam and Libya.

The Tripoli-based Supreme Constitutional Court is supposed to rule next month, but diplomats fear it will not be able to issue an independent verdict as it is controlled by Fajr Libya.

The Fajr Libya coalition has since denounced the dialogue and declared that it was continuing with its “military operations.” The group posted on their Facebook page that the way to end the fighting is to “disarm its rivals and hunt down their leaders.” Similarly, the eastern based Shura of Benghazi Revolutionaries issued a similar statement rejecting the initiative as “unfair”.

These moves underscore the polarisation that has divided the nation since the overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi in 2011. From Tobruk, the new government has denounced Fajr Libya, calling the assault on Tripoli an act of terrorism. The group passed a resolution to disarm militias controlling the capital.

In the next move, the UN seeks to meet with the boycotting militias to reignite talks. Bernardino Leon seeks to get militias out of the main cities, and then to “reorganize the security in the country with an army.” Fajr Libya has not made comment on the attempts by the UN, However one Misrata based representative said, “We have to comply to what the Dar al-Ifta has called for.”

Meanwhile, a former Libyan militia leader, Abdelhakim Belhadj, has put himself forward as the “saviour” for Libya. Belhadj is a self-described former jihadi who fought against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan with Osama bin Laden when the group had the backing of the US. Belhadj claims he was later abducted and “rendered” by the CIA, but vehemently disavows any ties to Al Qaeda “as organization or even as an ideology.”

Currently, Belhadj is the leader of Libya’s conservative al-Watan party. While he does not have great electoral success, he does have great influence among the militia groups. He says he supports negotiations between the opposition parties, and backs the exiled government in Tobruk. He states, “We have to unite around one goal, which is a democratic state, and to build relationships with other countries based on mutual trust and mutual respect […] The growth of terrorism now is something that we oppose strongly and we will make every effort to deal with it in a way that is in line with the vision of the majority of Libyans.”

First Ebola Case Confirmed Outside of Africa

The first case of the deadly Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) diagnosed on US soil has been confirmed in Dallas, Texas. Officials confirmed Tuesday that the unidentified male patient is being kept in isolation at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital and have pledged to contain the virus that has already killed more than 3,000 people in West Africa.

It is believed that the man contracted the virus in Liberia prior to traveling to the US to visit family members nearly two weeks ago. He arrived in the US on September 20. Symptoms of the virus became apparent on September 24, with the patient being admitted to hospital on the 26^th and placed in isolation on September 28. While previously US aid workers have come back to the US, after catching Ebola in West Africa, this is the first case of a patient developing the virus on US soil. It is believed that the patient was not in Liberia as part of on-going efforts to combat the spread of the virus there.

Health officials have disclosed that they are currently identifying all people who came into contact with the unnamed patient while he was infectious however officials at the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention have cautioned that since he was not sick on the plane, he was unlikely to have infected other travellers as Ebola is not contagious until the patient begins to display symptoms, which can include fatigue, fever, muscle aches, vomiting, diarrhoea and bleeding. According to CDC chief Tom Frieden, “at this point there is zero risk of transmission on the flight. The illness of Ebola would not have gone on for 10 days before diagnosis…he was checked for fever before getting on the flight and there is no reason to think that anyone on the flight that he was on would be at risk.” Anyone to have had contact with the patient will be monitored for a period of 21 days. According to Mr Frieden, currently there are only a “handful” of people, mainly family members, believed to have come in contact with the patient while he was sick.   While measures, such as checking temperatures, have been implemented at airports and border crossings across the affected countries in West Africa, this case has demonstrated that patients deemed Ebola-free when leaving an infected region may not necessarily be free of the virus, but may only be not displaying any symptoms at the time.

Latest figures released by the World Health Organization (WHO) indicate that the world’s largest outbreak of Ebola has infected more than 6,500 people across five West African countries, killing 3,091 since the start of this year.

The beginning of the West Africa outbreak has been identified as a two-year-old boy in Guinea who became sick with EVD in December 2013. While experts do not know how the child came down with the virus, some believe that he may have come in contact with an infected fruit bat, which are the natural hosts for the virus. Since then, the disease has spread rapidly, primarily affecting Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. In July, Ebola was confirmed in Nigeria when a dual US-Liberian citizen, who flew on a pane from Liberia to Lagos, died days later. The outbreak there killed eight and infected 20 people, however WHO officials have indicated that while Nigeria is not yet Ebola-free, the spread of the deadly virus has been contained, with no new confirmed cases reported since the beginning of September. One patient was also confirmed to have Ebola in Senegal, however like in Nigeria, the spread of the disease has been contained. The last confirmed case of Ebola reported in Senegal occurred on 28 August.

Egypt, Turkey Relations Deteriorate

30 September– In the face of rapidly deteriorating relations between Egypt and Turkey, calls are emerging for a boycott of Turkish goods after Turkey’s president, Recip Tayyip, Erdogan questioned the legitimacy of the Egyptian government at two international in one week.

Background

The unravelling of diplomatic ties between Egypt and Turkey began shortly after the popular overthrow of former Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi, led by current Egyptian president Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in 2013. Prior to Morsi’s overthrow, relations between Egypt and Turkey were strong. The nations coordinated in response to the Syrian conflict and the Middle East peace process, and Cairo and Ankara also signed over 25 bilateral cooperation agreements.

Since the Morsi’s overthrow in overthrow, Egyptian security forces have conducted a fierce crackdown on Morsi’s political group, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB). Erdogan has been unabashedly supportive of Morsi and the MB, which was declared a terrorist organisation in Egypt in December 2013. In November 2013, Egypt and Turkey downgraded diplomatic ties as both countries expelled the other’s ambassador, labelling them “persona non-grata.” Sisi was elected president of Egypt in June 2014.

Harsh Words at UNGA, WEF

Diplomatic relations reached a new low at the UN General Assembly meeting in New York. On Wednesday, the Turkish delegation reportedly boycotted a speech by the Egyptian president. Hours later, Erdogan used a portion of his time at the lectern to condemn the Egyptian government and appeal to the UN, “The United Nations as well as the democratic countries have done nothing but watch the events such as overthrowing the elected president in Egypt and the killings of thousands of innocent people who want to defend their choice. And the person who carried out this coup is being legitimized.” He added, “If we defend democracy, then let’s respect the ballot box. If we will defend those who come to power not with democracy but with a coup then I wonder why this U.N. exists.”

The Egyptian Foreign Ministry released a  statement  condemning Erdogan’s comments: “There is no doubt that the fabrication of such lies and fabrications are not something strange that comes from the Turkish President, who is keen to provoke chaos to sow divisions in the Middle East region through its support for groups and terrorist organizations.”

Four days later, as the keynote speaker at the World Economic Forum in Istanbul on Sunday, Erdogan recast his aspersions of Egypt’s government. He emphasised that the “coup is legitimised by the international community,” and asked attendees at the WEF “Is the UN the place where people who plot coups speak?”

By Monday, the Egyptian foreign released another statement that claiming that Erdogan is “not in a position to give lessons to others about democracy and respect for human rights and appoint himself the guardian of them.” The statement adds that Erdogan “did not hesitate to change the political system… and change the Turkish constitution in order to continue in power for ten years to come,” and this “cannot be described as the behaviour of democrats”.

Calls for Boycott

Tarek Mahmoud, Secretary General for the Coalition to Support the Tahya Masr Fund, has called for the closure of Turkish cultural centres in Cairo and Alexandria, citing that Turkish cultural centres are a “threat to national security.” The coalition will also boycott all companies affiliated with Turkey. Egyptian lawyer Samir Sabri filed a lawsuit last week to force the Egyptian government to ban the entry of Turkish products into the country. A court is expected to rule on the case on 2 December.

Others calling for the boycott of Turkish products, or the boycott of Turkey as a travel destination include television anchor and writer Gamal Anayet; political analyst Michel Fahmi; Bassem Halaqa, head of Egypt’s Tourist Guides Union; writer Reem Eid; and members of the Congress Party founded by former Egyptian presidential candidate Amr Moussa.

Regional Response

Many regional governments have spoken out about Erdogan’s comments. The United Arab Emirates said Erdogan’s UN speech was “unacceptable and contradicts diplomatic norms.” This was echoed by Secretary General of the Arab League, Nabil El-Araby, who called Erdogan’s comments “interference of internal Arab affairs.” Lebanese Prime Minister Tammam Salam of Lebanon announced Sunday he would like to mediate between Erdoğan and Sisi to heal the rift, adding “I hope such a mediation could be done.”

To some extent, nations in the Middle East appear to have taken sides based on support or opposition to the Muslim Brotherhood. In the face of increasing security threats across the region, political infighting could be detrimental to attempts to combat terrorist threats such as ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and Al Qaeda threats across the Gulf and the Maghreb.

Boko Haram’s Leader Reported Dead by Nigerian Military

New claims emerged last week that Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau may be dead, however while this is not the first time that such rumours have emerged, the fact that Nigeria’s military high command made the announcement likely signifies that such a propaganda statement was made to increase the military’s low-morale and to demonstrate to Nigerians that they are winning in the war against Boko Haram, despite the militant group carrying out almost daily attacks.

Rumours began circling last Thursday when the Nigerian military indicated that “a seriously wounded high ranking terrorist leader” had been captured during clashes in Konduga, Borno state. According to military officials, the unnamed militant was wounded and said to have been treated at a military medical facility. Speculation further increased over the weekend after a photograph began circulating depicting a heavily bearded man said to have been killed in Konduga. On Monday, army spokesman General Olajide Olaleye disclosed “at this point, I will not be able to confirm or deny the information,” adding that an investigation was on-going.

With two previous public statements about Shekau’s death, the international community has not been quick in applauding Nigerian efforts in combating the militant group. On 30 July 2009, police in Maiduguri disclosed that Shekau, then deputy to Boko Haram founder Mohammed Yusuf, was one of about 200 members of the group killed during clashes. That claim was dispelled less then a year later when Shekau appeared in a video clip. On August 19 last year, the security task force in northeastern Nigeria issued a statement indicating that Shekau “may have died” from a gunshot wound after a clash with Nigerian soldiers. However several weeks later, another video emerged. Since September last year, there have been ten Boko Haram videos released, the latest of them on August 24 when Shekau proclaimed the captured Borno town of Gwoza as part of an Islamic caliphate.

Many are currently sceptical that Shekau was killed in fighting in Konduga as it is highly unlikely that as Boko Haram commander, he would have been involved in such fighting. It is possible that the death in Konduga could have been that of a “body-double” and not actually Shekau as he is too valuable to the group to fight amongst the militants. The more likely scenario is that Shekau currently remains at one of Boko Haram’s main operational and logistical bases, likely located within Sambisa Forest or the Mandara Mountain range, which straddles the Nigerian and Cameroonian borders. Furthermore, it is likely that in the coming months, the emergence of a new video depicting Shekau will dispel last week’s rumours.

US Targets Khorasan Group

On 22 September, the US began targeted strikes against ISIS in Syria, and conducted a separate mission to target the “Khorasan group.” The Khorasan group, a.k.a Jabhat al-Nusra (JAN) is a militant group which according to the Pentagon, is comprised of seasoned al Qaeda veterans.

The Khorasan group has gained public attention in the past week; however they are believed to have been operating in Syria for over a year. U.S. Central Command believes the core group, which has fewer than 100 members, is using the anarchy in Syria to create a haven from which to “plot attacks, build and test roadside bombs and recruit Westerners to carry out operations.” Michael Leiter, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, said, “Khorasan is less of a threat to the region and more of a threat to the U.S. homeland than ISIS.” The group is known to be actively recruiting Westerners for plots against American and European interests. Recently, the group was known to be working bomb makers from al Qaeda’s Yemen affiliate to test new ways to slip explosives past airport security. Earlier this year, a recent ban on uncharged mobile phones arose from information that al Qaeda was working with Khorasan.

The name Khorasan is an ancient Islamic historical term used to describe the areas of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran. The group have been known to be operating in Syria for the past year, led by 33 year old Muhsin al Fadhli. In 2012, the US State Department offered a $7 million reward for information on Fadhli’s whereabouts. He was known to be an al Qaeda financier with ties to Osama bin Laden, and among the few who knew in advance about the 9/11 attacks. Fadhli arrived in Syria in April 2013 and joined with al-Nusra Front, however at some point in the past year, they parted ways. It is believed the Khorasan Group is mimicking the social media tactics used by ISIS to recruit Westerners, with the goal of training them and sending them home to target locales in the West.

The US Director of Operations at the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that they had been watching Fadhli and the group for some time, and believed they were “nearing the execution phase of an attack either in Europe or the homeland.” The intelligence community discovered the plots against the United States in the past week, but did not identify the target. Sources did add that the plot may have involved a bomb made of clothes dipped in explosive material.

On 23 September, the US dropped 40 Tomahawk missiles, striking eight targets to the west of Aleppo. The targets were believed to be Khorasan group strongholds. The US is currently assessing whether Fadhli was killed in the airstrikes. One anonymous US official stated “We believe he is dead,” however it has not been independently confirmed, and such confirmation could take time.

The U.S. attack on Khorasan Group targets this were a strategic surprise, as the US intended to catch the group off guard by mixing strikes against ISIS with strikes against Khorasan group targets.