MS Risk Blog

Boko Haram’s Leader Reported Dead by Nigerian Military

New claims emerged last week that Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau may be dead, however while this is not the first time that such rumours have emerged, the fact that Nigeria’s military high command made the announcement likely signifies that such a propaganda statement was made to increase the military’s low-morale and to demonstrate to Nigerians that they are winning in the war against Boko Haram, despite the militant group carrying out almost daily attacks.

Rumours began circling last Thursday when the Nigerian military indicated that “a seriously wounded high ranking terrorist leader” had been captured during clashes in Konduga, Borno state. According to military officials, the unnamed militant was wounded and said to have been treated at a military medical facility. Speculation further increased over the weekend after a photograph began circulating depicting a heavily bearded man said to have been killed in Konduga. On Monday, army spokesman General Olajide Olaleye disclosed “at this point, I will not be able to confirm or deny the information,” adding that an investigation was on-going.

With two previous public statements about Shekau’s death, the international community has not been quick in applauding Nigerian efforts in combating the militant group. On 30 July 2009, police in Maiduguri disclosed that Shekau, then deputy to Boko Haram founder Mohammed Yusuf, was one of about 200 members of the group killed during clashes. That claim was dispelled less then a year later when Shekau appeared in a video clip. On August 19 last year, the security task force in northeastern Nigeria issued a statement indicating that Shekau “may have died” from a gunshot wound after a clash with Nigerian soldiers. However several weeks later, another video emerged. Since September last year, there have been ten Boko Haram videos released, the latest of them on August 24 when Shekau proclaimed the captured Borno town of Gwoza as part of an Islamic caliphate.

Many are currently sceptical that Shekau was killed in fighting in Konduga as it is highly unlikely that as Boko Haram commander, he would have been involved in such fighting. It is possible that the death in Konduga could have been that of a “body-double” and not actually Shekau as he is too valuable to the group to fight amongst the militants. The more likely scenario is that Shekau currently remains at one of Boko Haram’s main operational and logistical bases, likely located within Sambisa Forest or the Mandara Mountain range, which straddles the Nigerian and Cameroonian borders. Furthermore, it is likely that in the coming months, the emergence of a new video depicting Shekau will dispel last week’s rumours.

US Targets Khorasan Group

On 22 September, the US began targeted strikes against ISIS in Syria, and conducted a separate mission to target the “Khorasan group.” The Khorasan group, a.k.a Jabhat al-Nusra (JAN) is a militant group which according to the Pentagon, is comprised of seasoned al Qaeda veterans.

The Khorasan group has gained public attention in the past week; however they are believed to have been operating in Syria for over a year. U.S. Central Command believes the core group, which has fewer than 100 members, is using the anarchy in Syria to create a haven from which to “plot attacks, build and test roadside bombs and recruit Westerners to carry out operations.” Michael Leiter, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center, said, “Khorasan is less of a threat to the region and more of a threat to the U.S. homeland than ISIS.” The group is known to be actively recruiting Westerners for plots against American and European interests. Recently, the group was known to be working bomb makers from al Qaeda’s Yemen affiliate to test new ways to slip explosives past airport security. Earlier this year, a recent ban on uncharged mobile phones arose from information that al Qaeda was working with Khorasan.

The name Khorasan is an ancient Islamic historical term used to describe the areas of Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iran. The group have been known to be operating in Syria for the past year, led by 33 year old Muhsin al Fadhli. In 2012, the US State Department offered a $7 million reward for information on Fadhli’s whereabouts. He was known to be an al Qaeda financier with ties to Osama bin Laden, and among the few who knew in advance about the 9/11 attacks. Fadhli arrived in Syria in April 2013 and joined with al-Nusra Front, however at some point in the past year, they parted ways. It is believed the Khorasan Group is mimicking the social media tactics used by ISIS to recruit Westerners, with the goal of training them and sending them home to target locales in the West.

The US Director of Operations at the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated that they had been watching Fadhli and the group for some time, and believed they were “nearing the execution phase of an attack either in Europe or the homeland.” The intelligence community discovered the plots against the United States in the past week, but did not identify the target. Sources did add that the plot may have involved a bomb made of clothes dipped in explosive material.

On 23 September, the US dropped 40 Tomahawk missiles, striking eight targets to the west of Aleppo. The targets were believed to be Khorasan group strongholds. The US is currently assessing whether Fadhli was killed in the airstrikes. One anonymous US official stated “We believe he is dead,” however it has not been independently confirmed, and such confirmation could take time.

The U.S. attack on Khorasan Group targets this were a strategic surprise, as the US intended to catch the group off guard by mixing strikes against ISIS with strikes against Khorasan group targets.

Houthi Leader Declares Successful Revolution in Yemen

24 September- Abdul Malik al-Houthi, leader of Yemen’s Shia Houthi rebels, has announced a “successful revolution” as Houthi supporters have taken key parts of Sana’a, forcing the government to “answer to popular demands.” The Yemeni government and the Houthi rebels agreed to a UN brokered deal after weeks of violence that left over 200 people dead in Yemen’s capital.

UN envoy to Yemen, Jamal Benomar, announced Saturday that the deal was reached after “intense consultations with all the political parties”, including the Houthi rebels. He adds that the treaty would be a “national document that will advance the path of peaceful change, and will lay the foundations for national partnership and for security and stability in the country.”

While the details were not released, it is expected that a new government will be formed in coming days. The Houthis have been invited to play a role in the formation of the new government. In addition, Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi also agreed to reverse an unpopular decision to remove fuel subsidies.

Background

The Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah (Partisans of God), are a rebel movement stemming from a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism.  The name “Houthi” originates from the group’s first leader, Hussein Badr al-Din al-Houthi, who led the rebel group’s uprising in 2004, with the aims of obtaining greater autonomy in the Saada province of Northern Yemen and protection of Zaidi traditions, which were perceived as threatened by Sunni encroachment. Zaidis comprise a third of Yemen’s population, and ruled North Yemen for nearly a millennia until 1962.When Hussein Badr al-Din al-Houthi and was killed by Yemen’s military in 2004, his family took over operations.

At first glance, it appears as though the fighting is based in the broader Shi’a-Sunni divide, however the battles are more accurately defined as localised war with a regional and cultural dimensions. Over the past two years, Houthi appeal has spread beyond the Zaidi population, and they have grown to become Yemen’s most popular opposition group, gaining support from Salafi and tribal members. Currently, Houthi rebels and supporters carry enough power to impose their desires on the government and the Yemeni population.

The most recent rebellion began in mid August, after Abdul Malik al-Houthi called upon President Hadi to reverse his decision to remove fuel subsidies. Hadi’s unpopular and poorly implemented decision to raise the cost of fuel had an immediate and detrimental impact Yemen’s poor. By 18 August, the Houthi rebels had set up armed protest camps around Sana’s, and al-Houthi called for replacing the government with a new body that was representative of Yemen’s various factions.

Under pressure, on 2 September, Hadi agreed to dismiss his government, reduce fuel prices by 30%, and allow for appointment of a new prime minister. Hadi agreed that the various Yemeni factions could submit nominations from within their own ranks. The Houthis rejected this move, calling it ‘insufficient’. A week later, security forces clashed with Houthi supporters in Sana’a, resulting in several deaths. Negotiations were suspended on 15 September but resumed days later.

Weekend clashes

On Thursday 18 September, the Houthis began a four-day onslaught through areas of Sana’a. While According to witnesses, clashes initially centred on the campus of Al-Iman University, a stronghold of Sunni Islamists. By Saturday, the group had taken over state television headquarters in Sana’a, pulling broadcasts off the air and trapping employees in the building. The group also seized government headquarters and overran a military camp, as well as homes belonging to Yemeni General Ali Mushin al-Ahmar, and tribal sheiks loyal to him. Al-Ahmar is the former head of the disbanded (yet still operational) First Armoured Division, and has led Yemeni forces in clashes against the Houthis since their inception. The General appears to have escaped the fighting; his whereabouts are unknown.

On Saturday, Yemen’s Supreme Security Commission imposed an after dark curfew in parts of Sana’a. The Ministry of Education announced school closures until fighting subsided, and the Yemeni Defence Ministry has put security forces on high alert. Meanwhile, on the Interior Ministry’s website, Interior Minister Hussein al-Terb urged security forces to “cooperate” with the Houthis “to strengthen security and stability, preserve public property and guard government installations… and to consider Ansar Allah friends of the police”.

On Sunday, Yemeni Prime Minister Mohammed Basindawa resigned amid peace talks. In his resignation letter he states, “The partnership between myself and the president in leading the country only lasted for a short period, before it was replaced by autocracy to the extent that the government and I no longer knew anything about the military and security situation.”

Despite the confusion and violence, the fragile peace agreement was signed on Sunday. The deal essentially gives the Houthi rebels a greater stake in mainstream politics. Under the UN-backed deal, Yemen will form a new government, and the Houthis and southern separatists will nominate a new prime minister. Al-Houthi stated, “If it is implemented, this agreement will also change the government, which the people called to fall, to fail, because it stood on an unjust, non-consensual basis.” Al-Houthi called for cooperation between the Houthi rebels and Islah, the main Sunni party in Yemen.

Ebola Outbreaks in Senegal and Nigeria Contained

While the deadliest Ebola epidemic ever has now killed 2,793 people in West Africa, World Health Organisation (WHO) officials disclosed Monday that outbreaks in Senegal and Nigeria have been basically contained.  A statement released by the UN health agency also published the results of the latest meeting of its Ebola emergency committee.

According to new figures released by the WHO, as of 18 September a total of 5,762 people have been infected with the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in five Western countries.  Guinea, where the outbreak initially began at the art of this year, along with neighbouring Liberia and Sierra Leone currently account for the most cases and continue to see their numbers rise.  Liberia has especially been the hardest hit, with 3,022 cases and 1,578 deaths.

The WHO did note however “the outbreaks in Senegal and Nigeria are pretty much contained.” According to officials, Senegal has not reported any new cases of the deadly virus since it registered its first and only case on August 29 – a Guinean student who has since recovered.  Meanwhile Nigeria, where twenty-one people have been infected, eight of whom have died, has not reported any new cases since September 8.  While no reports of new cases in Senegal and Nigeria does signify that both countries are slowly recovering, the WHO has not yet deemed them transmission free as the incubation period for Ebola is 21 days and double this time must pass without any new cases arising before a country can be deemed transmission free.

In a statement released Monday, the WHO also indicated that during a meeting of its Ebola emergency committee last week, officials had determined that the outbreak remains to be a “public health emergency of international concern.”  The WHO has disclosed that the committee reiterated its opposition to general bans on international travel or trade, noting that people infected with Ebola, or those who had come into contact with Ebola patients, should not be permitted to travel.  The committee also warned that blocking flights to or from affected areas and other travel restrictions only served to “isolate affected countries, resulting in detrimental economic consequences, and hinder relief and response efforts risking further international spread.”  The emergency committee did stress that in cases where measures like quarantines are deemed necessary, countries must ensure that “they are proportionate and evidence-based, and that accurate information, essential services and commodities, including food and water are provided to the affected populations,” insisting that “adequate security measures” should be put in place in order to ensure the safety and protection of heath workers, who face high infection rates and sometimes violence from frustrated and frightened populations.  Last week, eight members of an Ebola education team, said to include local health officials and journalists, were found dead after they were attacked by angry locals in southern.  This is the first such incident where health workers combatting EVD were killed.

ISIS supporters carry out actions in Algeria, Egypt 22 September

French national Herve Gourdel, 55, has been kidnapped by a militant group in Tizi Ouzou, eastern Algeria. Gourdel, a mountain guide, was travelling in a vehicle with Algerian nationals when he was abducted in the village of Ait Ouabane, and taken into a mountainous region. A week prior to the kidnapping, the abductors, a group calling themselves Jund al-Khilifa (Caliphate Soldiers) announced their split from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and swore allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS/Daaesh). Shortly following the French ministry’s announcement of Gourdel’s kidnapping, Caliphate Soldiers released a four-minute video entitled, “A message from the Caliphate Soldiers in Algeria to the dog Hollande.” In the video, a spokesman declares, “We, the Caliphate Soldiers in Algeria, in compliance with the order of our leader Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi … give Hollande, president of the criminal French state, 24 hours to cease its hostility against the Islamic State; otherwise the fate of his citizen will be slaughter. To save his life, you must officially announce the end of your hostility against the Islamic State.” Gourdel, who was seated between to masked gunmen, was directed to read a statement to Hollande: “I am in the hands of Jund al-Khilifa, an Algerian armed group. This armed group is asking me to ask you to not intervene in Iraq. They are holding me as a hostage and I ask you Mr. President to do everything to get me out of this bad situation. I thank you.” The video has been authenticated by the French Foreign Ministry. French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, in New York for UN General Assembly, stated, “We will do everything we can to liberate hostages, but a terrorist group cannot change France’s position.” A statement from President Hollande said that France and Algeria are cooperating at all levels to find and free Gourdel. Meanwhile, following France’s first air raids over ISIS targets in Syria on Friday, at least 30 French embassies across the Middle East and Africa raised have their threat levels. The kidnapping occurred a day after a 42 minute ‘call-to-arms’ video was released by ISIS. In the video, ISIS spokesman Abu Muhammad al-Adnani called upon fighters to attack or kill citizens of countries taking part in the US-led anti-ISIS coalition: “If you can kill a disbelieving American or European — especially the spiteful and filthy French — or an Australian, or a Canadian, including the citizens of the countries that entered into a coalition against the Islamic State, then rely upon Allah, and kill him.” In the 21 September video, Adnani also called upon insurgents in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula to increase the number of attacks against Egyptian security forces and to continue beheadings. Adnani says, “Rig the roads with explosives for them. Attack their bases. Raid their homes. Cut off their heads. Do not let them feel secure.” The statement underscores the recent intelligence which suggests that ISIS ISIS militants are developing stronger ties in the Sinai region, and raises fears that the group is spreading its ties across North Africa. Sinai-based terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis pledged allegiance ISIS earlier this year, and it is known that ISIS, while not supplying the group with weapons or personnel, has provided advice on how to target Egyptians. Hours before the announcement, terrorist group Ajnad Misr (Soldiers of Egypt) claimed responsibility for a bomb blast near the Foreign Ministry in Cairo on Sunday that killed two senior police officers and wounded several other policemen. Ajnad Misr stated they used an explosive device on “officers of the criminal apparatus,” and added that the attacks would not stop until “the ruling tyrants fall and God’s sharia is established.” ISIS has notoriously been conducting gruesome beheadings as a form of ‘terrorism as theatre’ propaganda. The group released has released three videos which showed the beheadings of two American journalists, James Foley and Steven Sotloff, and British aid worker David Haines. In addition, it is known that they have also beheaded at least two Lebanese soldiers. They have recently threatened to behead a fourth hostage. It is believed that there are fewer than 10 hostages still held by ISIS.