MS Risk Blog

Concerns of Copycat Attacks in France after Twenty People Left Injured in Three Separate Incidents

On Tuesday, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls sought to ease fears across the country after a recent spate of attacks.  The French government has urged the public to remain vigilant as authorities carry out investigations.  President Francois Hollande has called an emergency cabinet meeting for Tuesday and has urged the public not to panic.  While it appears that French authorities are playing down the idea that there is a pattern behind these three incidents, many are asking whether there is a copycat element to them.

It began on Saturday, when a man in the central town of Joue-les-Tours stabbed three police officers before being shot dead.  Bertrand Nzohabonayo was shot dead after he entered the police station armed with a knife and seriously wounded three officers.  Mr Nzohabonayo had previously committed petty offences however he was not on a domestic intelligence watch list.  According to a source, his brother is known for his radical views and once pondered travelling to Syria.  French anti-terrorism investigators have opened an inquiry into the attack.

Two other incidents followed Saturday’s attack.  On Sunday, a driver shouting “Allahu Akbar” (God is Great) ploughed his vehicle into pedestrians, injuring thirteen people in the city of Dijon.  The prosecutor has since indicated that the attacker had a long history of mental illness and that the incident is not linked to terrorism.  The latest attack occurred Monday, when ten people were injured after a van drove into a Christmas market in the western city of Nantes.  The attack occurred around 19:00 local time (1800 GMT), with witnesses reporting that the van drove into a stall that was selling mulled wine.  After the vehicle came to a halt, the driver stabbed himself in the chest several times, causing himself serious injuries.  French interior minister spokesman Pierre-Henry Brandet has indicated that the motive behind the attack is currently unclear.

While concerns that these attacks may be copycat incidents have spread across France, Prime Minister Valls indicated Tuesday that there was “no link” between these three incidents, adding that security forces are dealing with individuals who were acting alone.  According to Mr Valls, “we do not minimise these acts,” adding that the government wants to “reassure” the public and understand what had happened.

On Monday, Burundi authorities disclosed that they have arrested the brother of the man who was fatally shot in Joue-les-Tours.  Burundi’s National Intelligence Services confirmed that Brice Nzohabonayo was detained in the capital Bujumbura shortly after his brother Bertrand attacked a police station.  Burundi’s intelligence service is currently working with its French counterpart, with sources reporting that investigators are now seeking to establish if any attacks are being planned in Burundi as the country is a contributor to the African Union (AU) force that is currently battling al-Shabaab in Somalia.  Paris prosecutor Francois Molins also announced Monday that the suspect’s sister had been taken into custody on Saturday, adding that she would soon be released as there are no elements suggesting her complicity.

The three incidents in France come as governments around the world brace for so-called “lone wolf” attacks, which are carried out by individuals who are returning from waging jihad abroad, or who are simply following calls for violence made by Islamic State (IS).

Twin Attacks in Northeastern Nigeria

At least twenty-six people have been killed in attacks that were carried out in two major cities in northern Nigeria on Monday.

According to officials and eyewitnesses, the first attack occurred at the Dukku motor park on the outskirts of Gombe city, capital of Gombe state, at roughly 10:50 AM (0950 GMT). The explosion went off as people were boarding a nearby bus. At least twenty people were killed in that attack. Authorities have indicated that the bomb had been planted near a bus that was waiting to fill up. On the ground sources reported that shortly after the attack, a crowd had formed around the bus station, with several locals throwing stones at the security services. Anger has risen across northern Nigeria amidst growing complaints that the security services have repeatedly failed to contain the on-going violence.

The second explosion occurred late afternoon at a market in Bauchi city, the capital of Bauchi state. The attack occurred at roughly 5:00 PM (1600 GMT) however officials have not confirmed that a bomb was responsible. At least six people were killed. Authorities have warned that the death toll from both attacks is likely to rise in the coming days. No group has claimed responsibility for the two attacks however both targeted cities have been previously hit by Boko Haram. The militant group has also in the past claimed a number of attacks at bus stations, often targeting people who are heading to Nigeria’s mainly Christian south.

The attacks come in the wake of a new video released, depicting dozens of people being executed at a school dormitory. In the newly released video, images are shown of people being made to lay face down before being shot dead. There is currently no independent confirmation that Boko Haram is behind this video and it remains unclear where or when it was made however the video bears the militant group’s insignia and shows gun-wielding men chanting “Allah is great” and speaking in the Kanuri language that is associated with the group’s fighters. Boko Haram militants are also known to often target educational establishments.

Violence in the northeastern region of Nigeria is escalating ahead of the holiday season and the 14 February 2015 presidential elections, with many concerned that voting will be impossible in large parts of the region. Over the past several months, the situation in northeastern Nigeria has been worsening however Nigerian authorities appear to be ignoring the situation on the ground. President Goodluck Jonathan, who is running for a second term in office, has on several occasions claimed that Boko Haram’s defeat was imminent, even as the violence has continued to escalate. Last week’s kidnapping of 185 people, who were taken on 14 December from the town of Gumsuri in Borno state has highlighted the severity of the crisis and recalled the kidnapping of more than 200 schoolgirls from a school in the town of Chibok in April. At the time, President Jonathan vowed that such a mass abduction would not happen again.

Ebola Situation Report (17 December 2014)

In the days leading up to 14 December, there has been a total of 18,603 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) that have been reported in five affected countries: Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone and the United States; and three previously affected countries: Nigeria, Senegal and Spain. There have been 6,915 reported deaths. Reported case incidence in Guinea is fluctuating and is on the decline in Liberia. In neighbouring Sierra Leone, there are signs that the increase in incidence is beginning to slow. The case fatality rate in the three intense-transmission countries remains at 70%.

Guinea

In the week leading up to 14 December, a total of 76 new confirmed cases were reported. Since September, the national trend in case reporting across Guinea has been fluctuating, with between 75 and 148 confirmed cases reported each week. World Health Organization (WHO) officials have reported that currently, there is no clear upward or downward trend in national case incidence.

Transmission remains high in the capital city of Conakry, which reported 18 confirmed cases in the week leading up to 14 December. EVD transmission remains high in the neighbouring district of Coyah, with 14 confirmed new cases. South of capital city, in Forecariah, officials have reported a surge in new cases, with 13 new confirmed cases in the past week. The district had reported its first case 12 weeks ago and until now, had reported no more than 4 confirmed cases each week.

Transmission remains persistent in the eastern district of N’Zerekore, with 6 new confirmed cases reported in the week leading up to 14 December. The district of Dubreka reported 3 confirmed cases, while new cases continue to be reported in the outbreak’s epicentre of Gueckedou (2 confirmed cases); Kerouane (5 confirmed cases) and Lola and Kouroussa (2 confirmed cases in each district). In the past week, Macenta reported only three confirmed cases, a sharp decline from the 15 cases that were reported in each of the two previous weeks. WHO officials however have warned that it remains too early to draw conclusions whether this decline in reporting in this district will be sustained. After reporting last week its first case since June, Telimele reported 5 new confirmed cases. While the districts of Kindia and Faranah did not report any new confirmed cases, officials in these two districts reported 21 and 12 probable cases respectively. The northern district of Siguiri reported 4 probable cases. This area requires continued vigilance, particularly due to its proximity to Mali.

Officials in the Guinean capital of Conakry have banned all public Christmas and New Year celebrations in a bid to curb the spread of EVD. A statement issued by Conakry governor Soriba Sorel Camara on 16 December indicated that “large-scale gatherings in public places are suspended for the moment,” adding “beaches will remain closed” and firecrackers and fireworks will also be banned. The capital city’s governor has appealed to residents to “refrain from anything” that would compromise efforts to contain the spread of Ebola. This means avoiding “all gatherings in markets, bus stations, ferry landing stages, hospital and the airport.”

Liberia

At the national level, case incidence in Liberia has been on the decline, with 6 districts reporting new confirmed or probable cases in the week leading up to 14 December.

Transmission remains intense in Montserrado, which includes the capital Monrovia. The district reported 3 confirmed cases and 9 probable cases. Grand Bassa experienced a decline in cases, reporting only one confirmed case after having reported 7 in the previous week. The other districts to report confirmed cases during this period included Bong (1 confirmed case); Grand Cape Mount (2 confirmed cases) and Marigibi (1 confirmed case). In the northern region of the country, Lofa reported no cases for the seventh consecutive week. This is likely due to the strength of response efforts being carried out across the district.

Sierra Leone

EVD transmission across Sierra Leone remains intense, with the country reporting 327 new confirmed cases in the week leading up to 14 December. While WHO officials have reported that there are signs that the increase in case incidence has slowed, and that the incidence may no longer be on the rise, the country reported the highest number of confirmed cases in epidemiological week 50.

EVD transmission remains most intense and persistent in the western and northern districts of the country. The capital city Freetown accounted for 125 of all new confirmed cases. Other western districts that reported new confirmed cases include Port Loko (56 cases); Western Rural Area (52 cases); Bombali (23 cases) and Kambia (11 cases).

In the country’s eastern region, the district of Kono, which has experienced high transmission over the past five weeks, reported 12 confirmed cases in the week leading to 14 December. The neighbouring district of Koinadugu in the northeast reported three cases. Although transmission has been intense in Tonkolili for the past three weeks, in recent weeks the number of new weekly cases has declined from a peak of 56 four weeks ago to 14 cases over the past week. In the southern region of the country, the district of Bo continues to report a high number of new cases, with 24 confirmed cases in the week leading up to 14 December. By contrast, the south-eastern districts of Kenema and Kailahun reported 1 and 3 new cases respectively. Only two districts in Sierra Leone did not report any new cases during this reporting period: Bonthe and Pujehun.

Officials in Sierra Leone have banned any public Christmas celebrations in a bid to halt the spread of EVD. According to the government’s Ebola response unit, soldiers will be deployed across the country throughout the holiday period to ensure that all residents remain indoors. Officials in Sierra Leone have also imposed a two-week lockdown on the eastern diamond-mining district of Kono. The lockdown will effectively limit residents’ movements until 23 December.

Countries with an Initial Case/Cases or with Localized Transmission

Five countries: Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain and the United States of America; have reported a case or cases of EVD imported from a country with widespread and intense transmission.

In Mali, a total of 8 cases (7 confirmed and 1 probable) including 6 deaths (5 confirmed and 1 probable) have been reported. The most recent seven cases were reported in the Malian capital Bamako and are not related to the country’s first EVD case, which was reported in Kayes on 24 October. The last confirmed case tested negative for the second time on 6 December and was discharged from hospital on 11 December. All identified contacts of both the initial case and the outbreak in Bamako have now completed the 21-day-follow up. If there are no more reported cases of EVD in Mali, the West African country will be declared Ebola-free by the WHO in mid January.

In the United States, there have been four confirmed cases of EVD and 1 death. All contacts in the country have now completed the 21-day follow-up period. If no further cases are reported in the US, the country will be declared Ebola-free at the end of December.

Nigeria, Senegal and Spain have all been declared Ebola free by the WHO.

Scores Abducted in Nigeria; Cameroon Kills Suspected Boko Haram Fighters

Nigeria’s Government on Friday disclosed that it is “outraged and deeply saddened” after militants attacked a remote village in northeastern Nigeria and reportedly kidnapped around 200 people. While no group has claimed responsibility, the attack bore resemblance to past attacks carried out by Boko Haram militants, who abducted more than 200 women in April from a secondary school in Chibok, which is located 24 kilometres (15 miles) from this latest incident.

Boko Haram militants have kidnapped at least 185 people, including women and children, from a Nigerian village, with local sources reporting that civilians were forced away on trucks towards Sambisa Forest, which is known to be one of Boko Haram’s strongholds. The mass abduction, which was part of an attack that also killed thirty-two people, occurred Sunday in the village of Gumsuri, Borno state. While officials have not confirmed the number of those kidnapped, local sources have reported that the number is likely to increase in the coming days and weeks as many civilians return after having fled the area during the attack.

Details of the attack took four days to emerge as the mobile phone network in the region has completely collapsed and many roads are impassable. News emerged Thursday as many of the survivors reached the city of Maiduguri, the capital of Borno state. Two local officials and a vigilante leader also confirmed the attack, stating that the local government had established the number of those abducted by contacting families. Late on Thursday, government spokesman Mike Omeri released a statement, condemning the “deplorable act,” adding that it was currently “…impossible to verify the number of those missing at this early stage because it is presumed that many civilians fled during the attack.”

Gumsuri is located roughly 70 kilometres (43 miles) south of Maiduguri and is located on the road that leads to Chibok, where Boko Haram kidnapped more than 200 schoolgirls. Boko Haram has been increasingly using kidnappings to boost its supply of child fighters, protesters and young women. It is believed that the schoolgirls kidnapped in Chibok are now being forced to carryout suicide bombings across northeastern Nigeria. In recent month, a number of deadly attacks have been carried out young female suicide bombers. The mass abductions in Chibok brought unprecedented attention to Boko Haram’s five-year uprising. Despite President Goodluck Jonathan vowing to end the conflict, the violence has escalated since April and Sunday’s attack in Gumsuri will likely cast further doubt on Nigeria’s ability to contain the crisis.

 Meanwhile in neighbouring Cameroon, officials disclosed Thursday that troops have killed 116 Nigerian Boko Haram fighters in the far north. According to the defence ministry, insurgents attacked an army base in Amchide, which lies on the border with Nigeria, on Wednesday but were repelled by soldiers. Sources have reported that Boko Haram sustained heavy losses during the attack.

A statement released by the Cameroonian army disclosed “a column made up of a military truck and four pick-ups from the BIR (elite Rapid Intervention Battalion) were caught in an ambush that began with an explosion of a roadside bomb,” adding “at the same time… the Amchide military base was attacked by hundreds of fighters from the sect, but the response from our defence forces was instant and appropriate.” The statement further indicated, “there are 116 of the assailants dead on Cameroonian territory and undetermined casualties on the Nigerian territory from our artillery fire…there is one dead on the Cameroonian side and one officer missing.” According to the Cameroonian army, Boko Haram fighters destroyed a pick-up and a troop truck and managed to capture another military truck.

Boko Haram has increasingly threatened the northern region of Cameroon. While in the past, the militants have carried out repeated massacres of civilians and have attacked villages near the border with Nigeria, the militant group now appears to be increasingly targeting the military. It is believed that Boko Haram is seeking to replenish its military supplies in a bid to maintain power over the current towns and villages under its control and to seize further territory in northeastern Nigeria.

More Attacks in Yemen, Houthis Gain Greater Control of State Institutions

18 December- In the third attack in two days, suicide bombers detonated two car bombs in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida. Nine people, including the two attackers were killed, and at least 15 others were wounded. Three additional suspected suicide bombers were killed by local security forces before they were able to detonate their explosives. On Twitter, Yemen’s al-Qaeda affiliate Ansar al-Sharia has claimed responsibility for the attacks.
A day earlier, two suicide car bombers rammed their vehicles into a Shiite rebels’ checkpoint and a house south of Sana’a as a school bus was travelling nearby. The detonation killed 31 people, including at least 20 primary school students, all under the age of 12. Witnesses reported that the car appeared to be loaded with potatoes which concealed the explosives hidden underneath. The car bomber arrived at a checkpoint manned by rebels and blew up the vehicle as a student bus was passing, filled with female primary school students. Immediately after the attack, rebel troops brought four pickup trucks to transport the bodies, while ambulances assisted the wounded. Witnesses state that body parts were strewn throughout the street, along with open bags of potatoes. The Houthis called the attack “the ugliest crime against childhood.” Later, a second car bomber targeted the home of a Shiite rebel leader Abdullah Idris. The attack marked the second time Idris’ residence had been targeted.

Houthis Gain Political Control

Yemen has been tumultuous since September, when rebel Shiite Houthi fighters captured Sana’a and forced Prime Minister Mohammed Basindwa and his government to step down. The Houthis have become the de facto power base in Yemen, expanding control into areas south and west of Sana’a. The rebels are fighting two battles; on one front, they have engaged in several clashes with al Qaeda, driving them out of several strongholds. On the other front, they are battling the current Yemeni government, who they accuse of rampant embezzlement and corruption. On Tuesday, the power struggle between the Houthis and the Yemeni government came to a head as the rebels gained an increasing grip on state-run institutions.
On 16 December, Houthi rebels surrounded the Ministry of Defence, preventing the Minister of Defence from accessing his office, and Houthi fighters broke into the offices of al-Thawra newspaper to demand the dismissal of the Editor-in-Chief, Faisal Markam. The group claimed to be following orders from Houthi leader, Abdelmalek al-Huthi, who said to “to end corruption in all state institutions”. A day later, Houthi fighters seized control of Yemen’s Central Bank and the Department of Civil Status and Civil Registration. Militants sealed off the Central Bank, preventing employees from entering or leaving the premises. The Houthis believe Hadi is illegally using government funds to finance media outlets affiliated with his son. Houthis also seized control of the headquarters of SAFER, Yemen’s largest state-run oil and gas company.
On Thursday, Yemeni Prime Minister Khaled Bahah’s cabinet won a parliamentary vote of confidence. Bahah’s government, composed of technocrats and politicians from a range of parties, has the broad support of the Houthis but relations are not easy. Bahah suggested on Wednesday his government could resign after the rebels raided state institutions and sacked public officials. Strengthened by the vote, the government must now move forward gingerly, striking a balance between working with the Shiite Houthi rebels while avoiding sectarian strife with the Sunni majority. The Bahah government must also develop a strategy to deal with security threats from al-Qaeda militants and their affiliated tribal groups, as well as southern separatist movements.