MS Risk Blog

The WHO Achieves December 1 Ebola Targets

On Monday, World Health Organization (WHO) officials indicated that they have met what they call interim targets that were put in place in October in a bid to end the upward trend in new Ebola cases. While progress has been made, with some countries seeing the spread of the disease either stabilize or decline, reports of new cases in Mali and high transmission levels in some parts of Sierra Leone have shown that more work is required in order to end the worst Ebola outbreak on record.

Two months ago, the WHO launched a plan to stop the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. It aimed to isolate 70 percent of the sick and safely bury 70 percent of the victims in the three hardest hit countries – Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone – by 1 December. According to the latest figures released by the UN health agency, both Liberia and Guinea have met the targets, with Sierra Leone likely to fully achieve its goal in the coming weeks.

New figures released Monday indicate that both Liberia and Guinea have met the 1 December target for isolating 70 percent of people infected with Ebola, and have safely buried 70 percent of those who died. Sierra Leone however has not fully met the target. At a news conference in Geneva, the WHO’s Dr Bruce Aylward disclosed that Sierra Leone’s western region probably met the targets and likely will improve to the 70 percent target nationwide “in the coming weeks.” Dr Aylward further disclosed that the WHO’s plan to stop the spread of the deadly Ebola virus had shown that it was possible to quickly reduce the “yawning gap” between disease levels and the capacity to respond.

In recent weeks there have been a number of successes in the fight against Ebola. Amongst these are the fact that Ebola cases in Liberia and Guinea are either stabilizing or are on the decline. The case in Sierra Leone however is quite different as the country’s capital city Freetown and the town of Port Loko are seeing a severe surge in cases. Additionally, a new outbreak in Mali has caused concern that the deadly disease will spread into other West African countries.

When the deadline was first announced in October, Dr. Aylward acknowledged that to reach the 1 December goal would be “really pushing the system hard.” Dr Aylward, who is directing the WHO’s Ebola response, further disclosed “if we don’t do it in 60 days and we take 90 days: No. 1, a lot more people will die that shouldn’t; and No. 2, we will need that much more capacity on the ground to be able to manage the caseload.”

The Ebola outbreak was first reported in Guinea in March of this year. It has since spiralled out of control and was declared a public health emergency in August.   Latest figures released by the WHO indicate that the Ebola virus has sickened more than 16,000 people, of whom 7,000 have died. Tony Banbury, the head of the UN Ebola response mission in West Africa has warned that there is still a “huge risk” that the deadly disease could spread to other parts of the world.

Many Killed In Bombings in Northeastern Nigeria

Reports emerged Friday that many people have been killed in three explosions that occurred during Friday prayers at one of the largest mosques in the Nigerian city of Kano. The attacks come a week after one of Nigeria’s top Islamic leaders issued a call to arms to fight Boko Haram.

According to on the ground sources, the Grand Mosque in Kano was targeted Friday by suspected Boko Haram militants. The blasts occurred as Friday prayers had got under way at about 2:00 PM (1300 GMT). According to one local, “two bombs exploded, one after the other, in the premises of the Grand Mosque seconds after the prayers had started,” adding “a third one went off in a nearby road close to the Qadiriyya Sufi order. The blasts were followed by gunshots by the police to scare off potential attacks.” Eyewitnesses have reported that at least fifty people were killed in the attack, however officials have not released any official figures. National police spokesman Emmanuel Ojukwu confirmed that an attack had occurred in Kano however he noted that he was waiting for a briefing from officers at the scene and declined to comment further.

While Boko Haram has in the past targeted the city, which is the largest in northern Nigeria, several times during its five-year insurgency, most of its attacks have occurred in the eastern areas of the city.

The Grand Mosque is attached to the palace of the Emir of Kano, Nigeria’s second most senior Muslim cleric. The Grand Mosque is also where the influential Muslim leader usually leads prayers. The Emir, Muhammed Sanusi II, is currently in Saudi Arabia. Sources have reported that he arrived in Saudi Arabia late on Thursday night from Paris. Some have indicated that Friday’s attack on the Grand Mosque may be the result of comments made by the Emir last week in which he stated that northerners should take up arms against Boko Haram. In what are rare public comments by a cleric pertaining to political and military affairs, the Emir also cast doubts on the ability of Nigeria’s army to protect civilians and to end the five-year insurgency.

Friday’s explosions come after civilian vigilantes in the northeastern city of Maiduguri revealed that they had foiled a bomb attack against a mosque just five days after two female suicide bombers killed over forty-five people in the city.   Civilian vigilantes have disclosed that they discovered a suspected remote-controlled device that was planted in the Gamboru Market area of the city. Sources have indicated that while the bomb was successfully diffused by the police bomb squad another bomb near the area exploded. There were no casualties and the area has since been cordoned off. Locals have reported that the bombs were likely planted ahead of Friday’s prayers, as there is a mosque located nearby. Many suspect Boko Haram militants to be behind this incident, which also come just days after several arrests were made. If Boko Haram confirms this incident, then it would demonstrate that it is evolving its tactics, as the use of concealed roadside bombs is not typically a method that the group has used. In the past, Boko Haram has used direct hit-and-run tactics, car bombs and suicide attacks to carry out its deadly campaign of creating an Islamic state in northeastern Nigeria.

ISIS attempts to Penetrate Jordanian Borders

25 November– ISIS has released photographs of a vehicle-borne IED (VBIED) being detonated at the Trebil border complex, near the Karameh border crossing with Jordan. The explosion took place in the Trebil, a village on the in the Anbar province in Iraq.  The attack is believed to have killed four and wounded four members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). ISIS overtook the Trebil crossing on 22 June, but was retaken by the Iraqi military two days later. The crossing has remained a contested area.

In Jordan, the momentum of ISIS, coupled with supporters and sleeper cells believed to be inside the kingdom have sparked concerns that the group could enter the borders through “back door” channels. Thus far, it does not appear that ISIS has gained momentum. Jordanian leadership and security forces have developed military, diplomatic, and psychological tactics to repel or halt actions taken by ISIS supporters or fighters.

The Jordanian military is tasked with protecting the Hashemite Kingdom at any cost, and can act to protect national security without the approval of the King. In the past week, over 100 members of the Jordanian military and Special Operation Forces (SOF) have entered Iraq to prevent a forward advance by ISIS. The teams have conducted precision strikes and interrupted ISIS momentum. Inside Jordan’s borders, it is known that there are ISIS sleeper cells in the regions of Zarqa and Ma’an. Jordanian forces have tracked, detained, released, and released suspects, and they remain under watch for collaboration with the terrorist group.

The military has also employed foreign help. Israel is providing overhead imagery to Jordan to use in its fight against ISIS on its borders. On Thursday, the French government deployed six Mirage fighter jets to assist in the ongoing battle. French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that the deployment would “strengthen our presence in this theater of operations.” The French fighters are expected to join the Jordanian forces at the end of the month.

Diplomatically, Jordanian leadership is working with Chechen leaders in Grozny to seek and capture ISIS fighters. In mid-November, King Abdullah II went to met with Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov to discuss counterterrorism issues. A Jordanian official revealed that the leaders reached an agreement: Jordan will invest in Chechnya’s infrastructure, and in exchange, the Chechens will provide information on Chechens and North Caucasians tied to ISIS and other groups in the Syrian battle space. Captured fighters will be returned to Chechnya for prosecution.

Finally, the Jordanian government is developing a counter narrative campaign against ISIS. The nation has employed two powerful clerics, Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, also known as Isam Mohammad Taher al-Barqawi, and Abu Qatada, aka Omar Othman. Maqdisi, who was released from Jordanian prison in mid-November, inspired Abu Musab al-Zarqawi , the al-Qaeda leader during the height of the Iraq War. Qatada was transferred from the UK to Jordan in 2013 in order to stand trial for terrorism acts in Jordan. Both clerics have spoken out against the conflict and will likely be used, along with others in an information campaign. However, they will be watched carefully to ensure that the counter narrative does not impose an additional threat vector.

ISIS is attempting to destabilise current governments in order to capture infrastructure and territory, while simultaneously playing on sectarian battles in the region. Jordan’s three pronged approach is likely to keep ISIS at bay in the immediate to mid-term range, but will rely heavily on actions taken by Kurdish, Iraqi, and coalition forces to reduce the threat.

Global kidnap risk rises as UK Government plans legislation to prevent insurance payments

MS Risk Limited, a leading independent crisis response company serving the Lloyd’s of London specialty risk insurance market, issues its annual Kidnap for Ransom Review as the UK government debates  adjusting legislation on the future legal status of kidnap insurance, which prevents reimbursement of terrorist ransom payments.

In the absence of effective prevention and professional  law enforcement response, business travellers, tourists, aid workers, journalists and local nationals in at least 53 countries remain dangerously exposed to this cowardly crime and the impacts it has on hostages, their family members, employers, communities and governments.

The MS Risk  report shows a particular trend in the Middle East and North Africa region by terrorists and criminal gangs using terrorist labels, to invoke fear to demand ransoms and political concessions through kidnap operations.  This is assessed as representing 11% of global kidnap incidents during the preceding twelve months.

Incidents in the Maghreb and wider Sahel regions of sub-Saharan Africa fuel an estimated 29% of global kidnap events.  Bold spectaculars – in particular by Boko Haram – and the regular use of middlemen for mediation and poor engagement with adversaries is contributing to increased expectations on ransoms and other concessions by militants.

Some cases do not result in demands and captives are held for protracted periods and used as human shields or for future unclarified purposes.

Latin America and Asia continue to see respective climbs in kidnapping and extortion incidents.  Holistic reporting remains unclear and the threat is largely ill defined due to inconsistent data capture.

Further Information:

Liam Morrissey, Chief Executive Officer +44 (0) 207 754 3555 or info@msrisk.com

Issued by Pat Adamson, MTI Network. +44 (0) 7836 766 947  or Will Marks +44 (0) 207 823 9444

The full report can be provided to accredited industry and media  contacts only.

Note:

MS Risk Limited:

MS Risk acts on a non-exclusive basis for Lloyd’s of London registered underwriters and brokers providing crisis response services.  These services are performed internationally and include responses to kidnap, extortion, hijack, illegal detention and malicious product tamper events.  MS Risk serves insurers and works directly for corporations, non-governmental organisations and private individuals to mitigate these threats, to assess and understand risks and to create robust secure and safe conditions for clients in challenging environments.  A new breed security consultancy, its principals have worked around the world successfully supporting commercial interests with effective and proportionate security controls and crisis response services for over twenty years.  It’s hotline service, team of analysts and response consultants serve clients worldwide on a 24/7 basis.

Website: www.msrisk.com

Website: www.mtinetwork.com

Follow us on Twitter, Facebook or LinkedIn

MTI Network is a crisis media response consultancy with offices available 24/7 on five continents

This message may contain confidential and privileged information. If you are not the intended recipient you are not authorized to read, print, retain, copy, disseminate, distribute, or use this message or any part thereof. If you receive this message in error, please notify the sender immediately and delete all copies.

Twin Bombings in Maiduguri

In what is the latest wave of attacks to be blamed on Boko Haram, at least forty-five people were killed Tuesday when two female suicide bombers blew themselves up in a crowded market in northeastern Nigeria. The explosions come as suspected Boko Haram militants have control of another town in northeastern Nigeria.

The explosions occurred around 11 AM (1000GMT) on One Way road in the Borno state capital Maiduguri, near the Monday Market area where at least fifteen people were killed in an attack carried out by suspected Boko Haram militants on 1 July. An official from Nigeria’s National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) confirmed “many people have been killed,” but that an official death toll has not been compiled. According to on the ground sources, the first bomber stood by a motorized rickshaw packed with goods in the busy market and took a call on her mobile phone. She later dropped the mobile phone and blew herself up. Officials currently believe that the bomb was likely concealed in the rickshaw. According to an eyewitness, “about 10 minutes later, another woman who looked about 19 and carrying what looked like a baby on her back…arrived at the scene that was crowded with rescuers and locals….She then detonated the bomb on her back.”

In recent months, northern Nigeria has increasingly been hit by a wave of suicide bomb attack carried out by women. In July, there were four such attacks that occurred within a week in Kano city. Officials believe that Boko Haram is using either willing volunteers or coercing young women and girls into carrying out suicide attacks. According to sources, three women, said to be “female recruiters” for Boko Haram were reportedly arrested in July while an alleged trainer of women bombers was detained in August in Kano with up to 16 “trainees.”

Tuesday’s attacks also came after the militants seized control of another town in Nigeria’s restive northeast. Early Monday, Boko Haram took over the town of Damasak, located less than 200 kilometres (125 miles) from Maiduguri, in the far north of Borno, near the border with neighbouring Niger. According to local sources, the militants entered the town disguised as traders, carrying boxes that were packed with AK-47 rifles. They then set fire to houses and killed an unspecified number of people.