Ebola Situation Report (10 December 2014)

Up to the end of 7 December 2014, there has been a total of 17,942 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported in five affected countries: Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leona and the United States of America. The region has recorded 6,388 deaths.

In the week leading up to December 7, reported case incidence in Guinea increased, with 103 confirmed and probable cases; in Liberia, reported case incidence is declining, with 29 new confirmed cases over a period of three days leading up to 3 December. The situation in Sierra Leone is still worsening, with 397 new confirmed cases in the week leading up to 7 December. The case fatality rate across the three most-affected countries currently stands at 76%.

Guinea

A total of 103 new confirmed and probable cases of EVD were reported across the country in the week leading up to 7 December. Since early October, the national trend in Ebola cases has been increasing, with between 75 and 148 confirmed cases reported in each of the past seven weeks.

The previously reported surge of new cases in the eastern district of N’Zerekore, which had only 4 new confirmed cases in the week leading up to 7 December, appears to have abated however transmission in the neighbouring district of Macenta continues to be intense, with 15 new confirmed cases. Several districts in central and northern Guinea have reported persistent transmission. These include Faranah, with 8 confirmed and probable cases; and Kankan, with 4 new confirmed cases. In the western region of the country, the capital city Conakry reported 16 new confirmed cases in the week leading up to 7 December. Along with the neighbouring district of Coyah, which confirmed 18 new cases in the week leading up 7 December, Conakry has now reported an increase in the number of new confirmed cases during each of the past three weeks. Telimele has reported a case for the first time in over twelve weeks.

While ten of Guinea’s districts have yet to report a case of EVD, according to the World Health Organization (WHO), “there has been a geographical expansion in transmission: as of 1 October, 9 districts had reported a confirmed or probable case during the past 7 days; as of 1 December, 14 districts reported a case during the past 7 days.

Liberia

Over the past four weeks, case incidence in Liberia has been on the decline, with five districts reporting new cases in the three days leading up to 3 December. In the three days leading up to 3 December, there were a total of 29 confirmed cases reported across Liberia.

The district of Montserrado, which includes the capital Monrovia, reported 15 confirmed cases and accounted for more than half of all confirmed cases nationally over the reporting period. The other districts to report a case during this period include Bong, with 1 confirmed case; Grand Bassa, 7 confirmed cases; Grand Cape Mount, 5 confirmed cases; and Sinoe, with 1 confirmed case. The district of Lofa, which is located in the northern region of the country near the border with Guinea and Sierra Leone, reported no cases for the sixth consecutive week.

Sierra Leone

EVD transmission across Sierra Leone remains intense with 397 new confirmed cases reported in the week leading up to 7 December. This is three times as many as Guinea and Liberia combined.

The worst affected area remains the capital city, Freetown, which reported 133, or one-third, of all new confirmed cases during this reporting period. Transmission remains persistent and intense in other areas of the country, including in the districts of Bo, 14 cases; Bombali, 57 cases; Kambia, 10 cases; Kono, 24 cases; Koinadugu, 2 cases; Moyamba, 10 cases; Port Loko, 76 cases; Tonkolili, 13 cases; and the Western Rural Area, 57 cases. In the southern districts of the country, Kenema and Kailahun reported zero cases. Since 1 November, Kenema has reported only one case of EVD. Pujehun was the only other district not to report a new case. Bonthe, which over the past two weeks had previously not reported any cases, reported a single confirmed case of EVD in the week leading up to 7 December.

On 10 December, Sierra Leonean authorities imposed a two-week lockdown on the eastern diamond-mining district of Kono after eight cases of Ebola were confirmed in one day. The lockdown will effectively limit residents’ movements until 23 December. Only essential vehicles, including fuel-carrying tankers, military, police, NGO workers and UN-associated vehicles will be allowed through the heavily monitored checkpoints into the district. Private and commercial vehicles and motorcycle taxes will be barred while mining activity has ceased. According to Sierra Leone’s health ministry, Tuesday’s spate of Ebola reports increased the cumulative total of confirmed cases in the region to 119. Officials from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the US Centre for Disease Control are assisting Sierra Leone’s National Ebola Response Centre in preventing the deadly virus from spreading throughout Kono, which has a population of 350,000. While the rapid reaction has helped contain the virus to about half of the fifteen chiefdoms in Kono, WHO teams that arrived in the area ten days ago were taken aback by the situation. According to sources, in the space of eleven days, two WHO teams buried 87 victims, including a nurse and an ambulance driver who were enlisted to help dispose of corpses that were piling up in the local hospital.

Mali

On 12 December, Mali’s Health Ministry reported that the last Ebola patient treated in the West African country has been released from hospital, leaving no known cases of the deadly virus in Mali. A statement released by the ministry disclosed that the last patient was discharged from hospital on Thursday after several Ebola tests came back negative.

The deadly Ebola virus had first entered Mali through an infant girl who died of the disease in October after arriving from neighboring Guinea. Later that month, an imam who also arrived from Guinea with the disease, died in Mali. The recent eight recorded cases of Ebola were all linked to the imam. According to officials from the Health Ministry, the country now has no confirmed or suspected cases of Ebola however authorities are still monitoring twenty-six people who had contact with the sick. The government has warned that because people are still being monitored for symptoms, and with the fact that another sick person could cross the border, all Malians must remain vigilant. Mali will officially be declared Ebola-free forty-two days after the last Ebola patient tested negative for the disease.

AQAP takes responsibility for Double Suicide Bombing

9 December- A double suicide bombing occurred at the First Military Command base in Seyoun, Yemen. Seyoun is the capital city of Yemen’s Hadramout province. Sources indicated that the two attackers attempted to get into the base to detonate vehicle borne IEDs. Soldiers attempted to prevent the vehicles from entering, however one car bomb exploded at the bases gate. The other vehicle detonated inside the compound. Four people were killed and eight were wounded.

The first vehicle was driven Humam al Qarqa al Awlaki, who detonated a Suzuki Vitara filled with half a ton of explosives at the base’s gate around 8:40 a.m. About two minutes later, Nasser bin Ganam al Si’ri detonated a Toyota Hilux carrying 1.25 tons of explosives inside the command headquarters.

A Twitter account affiliated with Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula released a tweet claiming responsibility for the bombings. The tweet also suggested that “tens” of soldiers had been killed and a number of military vehicles were disabled. The group said that their fighters had been monitoring the base; 30 minutes prior to the attacks, a military convoy including high-ranking officials had entered the base.

AQAP released a statement on 9 December which also took credit for the attack of a military truck in al Shihr, about 150 miles south of Seyoun. The attack killed two soldiers and wounded one. AQAP says that soldiers at barracks near the attack fired “randomly” for over an hour after the attack. The group accused the military of damaging a mosque and several “houses of Muslims in the area.” A day earlier, AQAP conducted several bombings in Yemen’s capital, Sana’a targeting the homes of Shiite Houthi leaders. The group conducted three bombings, killing fifteen and wounding 35 Houthis.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has claimed responsibility for 25 terrorist attacks in Yemen since 1 December, targeting Houthi and military people and facilities. Of the 25, eight attacks, or about 30% were aimed at Yemeni military stationed in the south and east. The remaining 70% have been directed at Houthi leaders or military positions, mainly in Sana’a.

Shiite Houthi fighters have gained traction in their battles against AQAP in recent months. Houthi leaders have captured towns in the South and east that were under the control of AQAP. On 18 November, Houthi fighters pushed AQAP militants out of the south-western strategic town of Rada’a. The town had been under the control of al-Qaeda militants since early 2012. Houthi fighters are now in full control of the strategic town; the group has expressed their preparedness to withdraw from the town when the Yemeni army is able to restore peace and security.

Yemen’s President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi has stressed the need for cooperation with the Houthis to restore security to the country. Yemen’s central government has so far failed to confront the terrorist threat. Houthi fighters, however, have intervened to fill the vacuum and driven al-Qaeda militants out of many areas in the country.

In response to the loss strongholds to Shi’ite Houthi fighters, AQAP has accused the Houthis of acting as proxy fighters for the United States and threatened renewed violence against them. In a late-November audio message on jihadist websites, al AQAP’s military commander Qassim al-Raymi said, “You have to know that the mosques of Muslims that you blew up along with their homes and schools, will not just pass unnoticed and you will pay the price dearly.”

AQAP is likely retaliating for military cooperation with the Houthis, and perceived cooperation with the United States. On 4 December, the group released a video featuring a hostage American photo-journalist Luke Somers. The group threatened to kill Somers if the US government did not give in to various demands. On 6 December, during an attempted rescue mission by US security forces in Shabwa, Somers was killed, along with a South African hostage.

Southeast Asia Vessel Hijackings are Increasing and Becoming Deadlier

The killing of a crewmember on board a Vietnamese tanker by pirates earlier this week has marked a deadly escalation in hijackings in waters in Southeast Asia. The attack further highlights the growing threat of piracy in Southeast Asian waters and the fact that the region has developed into the new global hotspot for piracy.

On Sunday, crewmember Tran Duc Dat, 34, was shot in the forehead after pirates boarded the VP Asphalt 2, owned by VP Petrochemical Transport Co in Haiphong. According to the Vietnam Maritime Search and Rescue Coordination Centre, the vessel, which had just left Singapore, was en route to Vietnam. It was attacked at 4:30 AM local time, 60 nautical miles from Singapore waters near Aur island off southern Johor state. The attack occurred in the vicinity where the Vietnamese ship Sunrise 689 was attacked in October. According to sources, the sixteen crewmembers on board the VP Asphalt 2 were tied up as the pirates searched the ship. The hijackers fled with only personal belongings of the crewmembers. The vessel was carrying 2,300 metric tones of liquid asphalt and it is believed that the ship was likely targeted by the pirates in the belief that it was carrying oil products. The tanker has since returned to Singapore and an investigation into the incident is currently underway.

While Sunday’s killing of a crewmember is the first such incident to occur in Malaysian waters in almost two years, the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) has on previous occasions warned about the growing threat of piracy in Southeast Asia, with officials reporting in October that the area accounted for a majority of piracy incidents reported globally. Ship hijackings in waters in Southeast Asia have been on the rise in recent months; with the IMB reporting at least twelve such attacks this year. According to Noel Choong, head of the IMB’s piracy reporting centre in Kuala Lumpur, “it appears groups or syndicates are targeting gas-oil,” adding “they are making a lot of money off of it. They are getting away with it. As long as there is no deterrent, they will continue to hijack ships.”

According to the IMB, in the first three quarters of 2014, there were 103 pirate attacks in Southeast Asia, out of 178 that occurred globally. The IMB has warned that “gangs of thieves armed with knives and guns” are increasingly attacking small tankers carrying either oil or diesel and hijacking them to steal the cargo. According to Mr Choong, pirates can earn US $2 million or more for each hijacked tanker that is carrying oil products.

US, Canada, British Embassies issue warnings in Egypt, UAE, Bahrain

9 December- The US State Department warned U.S. Embassy staff in Cairo to remain close to their homes. A memo released by the Bureau of Diplomatic Security reads, “In light of the heightened tensions and recent attacks on Westerners in the region, the U.S. Embassy has recommended that its staff carefully scrutinize their personal movements and consider staying close to their residences and neighborhoods over the coming period.” It is believed that ISIS and affiliated groups may have increased their targeting of Western nationals in recent weeks. Last week, ISIS-linked Egyptian militant group Ansar Beit al Maqdis took responsibility for the killing of Texan oil worked William Henderson, who was reported missing and killed in August. The embassy has remained open.

Meanwhile, the British embassy in Cairo suspended services beginning Sunday. The embassy declined to give details or indicate when it would reopen. The British Consulate-General in Alexandria is operating as normal. A spokesperson for the British embassy stated, “The decision to suspend public services at the embassy has been taken for security reasons and is in the best interests of our staff. The decision is independent of our wider travel advice for Egypt.” An anonymous source indicated that a suspected militant who was recently detained by Egyptian authorities had confessed to plans to target foreign embassies.

On Monday, Canada also closed its embassy in Cairo due to “security concerns.” No other details have been given to explain the closure, but it is thought to be linked to a video released by ISIS on Sunday. The video depicts a man identified as Canadian militant John Maguire (a.k.a. Abu Anwar al-Canadi) urging attacks against his home country. The video refers to the killing of Canadian soldiers and an attack on parliament in Ottawa, and shows Maguire urging Muslims to follow the example of the recent attacks.

Public Safety Minister Steven Blaney cautioned Canadians in Egypt to remain vigilant. A message on Canada’s Cairo Embassy website states: “The ability to provide consular services may occasionally be limited for short periods due to unsettled security conditions.”

In addition, the US and British diplomatic mission to the United Arab Emirates has warned citizens to be vigilant of further terror attacks targeting Westerners after a school teacher was stabbed to death in a shopping mall and a bomb left outside the home of an American family. The US embassy said it was “engaged at the senior-most levels of the UAE government to ensure the safety and security of US citizens in the UAE,” but urged US citizens to vary their routines and schedules.

Romanian-born Ibolya Ryan, 47, who had become an American citizen and trained as a teacher in the US, died on Thursday after she was attacked by a veiled woman with a butcher’s knife in a public toilet at the Boutik Mall in Abu Dhabi, the UAE’s capital.

A woman has been arrested in connection with the brutal murder of Ibolya Ryan, a Romanian-born naturalised American teacher. The woman is also believed to have left a bomb in front of the home of an Egyptian-American doctor. The bomb was defused before it could detonate. It is believed that the woman may have been working with others to target Westerners.

In response to the recent attacks, Aliya Mawani, counsellor at the Canadian Embassy in Riyadh, said that Canada’s Travel advisory for Bahrain is advising Canadians to exercise a high degree of caution: ‘We encourage all Canadians to monitor updates on the Travel Advisory for Bahrain on a regular basis.”

Gunmen Target Jail in Central Nigeria

According to police officials, gunmen in Nigeria have freed more than 200 prisoners in the latest jailbreak to occur in the restive West African country.

Sources have reported that the gunmen late Saturday stormed the facility, which is located in the central Nigerian city of Minna, in Niger state near the capital Abuja. In recent years, Boko Haram, and its offshoot Ansaru, have been behind several prison raids. A police spokesman for Niger state confirmed the breakout, adding that the incident was still being investigated and that “its unclear if this is Boko Haram or some criminal gangs.” One security source did report that he doubted that “…there were many high profile Boko Haram suspects being held in Minna.” Deputy Superintendent Ibrahim Gambari has reported that police recaptured at least ten escapees from the medium security prison. Local residents reported hearing gunshots however they noted that no explosions were heard in the attack. One resident reported seeing the guards of the prison fleeing shortly after the first assault.

Saturday’s prison attack is the third to occur in the past three months in the West African nation. While jailbreaks are frequent, with police only capturing a fraction of those who escape, over the past several months, suspected Boko Haram militants have increasingly been targeting prisons across Nigeria in a bid to free jailed militants. On 1 December, more than 300 inmates broke out of a prison bombed by gunmen in southwest Ekiti state while on 3 November, 144 escaped from south-central Kogi state after gunmen bombed a prison wall. Two earlier jailbreaks were blamed on Boko Haram however it currently is unknown how many hundreds of Boko Haram suspects are being held in Nigerian jails. If Boko Haram is behind this latest string of prison attacks, it could be an attempt by the militant group to increase its numbers ahead of major attacks that are likely to be carried out over the upcoming holiday season. Over the past several weeks, Boko Haram has intensified its tempo of attacks, carrying out deadly bombings and suicide attacks across northeastern Nigeria on an almost daily basis, with the Nigerian military carrying out minimal efforts in order to prevent attacks from occurring.

The vast majority of people being held in Nigerian jails have either never been charged or are awaiting trial. Despite it being illegal to hold someone for more than 48 hours without bringing charges or presenting them to a magistrate, some prisoners have been held for many years. According to statistics released on 30 June by Nigeria’s Prisons Service, only 18,042 of 56,785 inmates have been convicted of a crime.