MS Risk Blog

Jordan, UAE, Syria and ISIS Update

10 February—Earlier today, Jordan deployed thousands of ground troops to its border with Iraq as the kingdom ramps up its campaign against ISIS militants. The troops will stay at the border to prevent infiltration of ISIS militants into Jordan. Jordanian forces have also redoubled their efforts in targeting ISIS strongholds since the release of a brutal video showing the burning death of Lieutenant Kasasbeh. The pilot was captured in December and had been held hostage for months as the Jordanian government attempted to negotiate his release.

It is believed that the gruesome burning death of Kasasbeh was filmed at least a month prior to its release. ISIS continued with negotiations in an attempt to retrieve two al Qaeda linked fighters that had been imprisoned in Jordan, while also doing “post-production” editing to their latest video, which is considerably more high quality and . Following the release of the video, the detained fighters were immediately transferred to a Jordanian prison that handles execution. They were executed the following day.

The video of Kasasbeh’s death sparked outrage in Jordan. King Abdullah has vowed a “strong, earth-shaking and decisive” response. On 8 February, Jordanian forces conducted 56 airstrikes on ISIS targets. Abdullah has also sought to send ground troops into Syria, however Syrian president Bashar al Assad will not allow foreign ground troops. Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem said, “So far, there is no coordination between Syria and Jordan in the fight against terrorism […] as for press reports about ground troops entering Syria, we say clearly that… we will not permit anyone to violate our national sovereignty by intervening to fight IS.” He added that the Syrian Arab Army would undertake the task of eradicating ISIS.

The refusal to allow Jordanian forces into Syria does not come as a surprise. Syria’s government has accused the kingdom of supporting terrorism, because Jordan has been supportive of the uprising against Assad which began in 2011.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates announced on Saturday that they would resume their efforts in the coalition airstrikes against ISIS. The emirate’s official news agency says that in re-joining the airstrikes, they “reaffirms [its] unwavering and constant solidarity with Jordan.” The UAE has sent a squadron of F-16 jets to Jordan so that its pilots can fly sorties alongside those from Jordan. In addition to providing additional fighting power, by moving the squadrons to Jordan, they are able to shorten their flight distances and intensify air-strikes against ISIS. The UAE halted their efforts in December after Kasasbeh was shot down during a mission over Syria. It has been reported that the UAE dropped out of the coalition because there were no significant search and rescue assets in place for the recovery of downed planes or fighters.

The UAE says the renewed effort is an attempt to stop “the brutal terrorist organization that showed all of the world its ugliness … through abominable crimes that exposed its false allegations and drew outrage and disgust from the Arab peoples,” according to the news release by WAM, Emirates News Agency. The release also said the initiative comes from the “deep belief in the need for Arab collective cooperation to eliminate terrorism … through the collective encountering of these terrorist gangs and their misleading ideology and brutal practices.”

Even in the midst of the intensified efforts, ISIS today has released a new propaganda video which shows British journalist John Cantlie. The video features an ISIS member calling on Muslims to carry out more attacks in France. Cantile has been held captive for more two years by ISIS militants. He has previously been shown in a range of videos, including a series called “Lend Me Your Ears.”

Cantile speaks about a range of topics, including education, drone strikes and Sharia law. Addressing other Muslims living in France, he urges them to carry out further “lone wolf” strikes. The video is the second documentary-style video in the “Inside…” series, following videos from Kobane, Syria, and Mosul, Iraq.  Cantile’s family have called on ISIS to set him free, with Cantlie’s father Paul, 80, sending a message to ISIS appealing for his son’s freedom. He died shortly afterwards. Jessica Cantlie, his sister, has previously appealed for “direct contact” with the extremist militants holding him.

Finally, the US has confirmed that American hostage Cayla Mueller has been killed. Shortly after the Jordan campaign, ISIS released a statement that Jordanian missiles had resulted in the aid worker’s death. The US has not yet confirmed Mueller’s cause of death.

US Consulate Issues Warning for Matamoros, Mexico

The United States consulate in Matamoros issued a statement on Wednesday (4 February 2015) warning all American citizens of an increase in violence, which US officials indicate has been attributed to a battle between Matamoros and Reynosa factions of the Gulf Cartel.

The US consulate has indicated that staff members have been advised to restrict travel in the city as there has been a surge in violence and an increase in reports of large convoys of armed drug gang members driving through Matamoros. A statement released by the consulate indicated, “while daytime convoys of armed Transnational Criminal Organization members are not necessarily unusual for Matamoros, the amount of violence that has resulted from gun battles between these rival factions is cause for increased vigilance.” TCO convoys have been also driving through Division Del Norte, Lauro Villar, Canales, Periferico and near the entrance to the Veterans International Bridge.

On Wednesday, Mexican federal troops killed eight alleged gang members in battles that occurred along a highway near the US border in the northern state of Tamaulipas. According to a federal and state police task force, the gunmen were killed in separate battles after they hijacked buses and used them to block a highway between the cities of Matamoros and Reynosa, opposite the Texas border towns of Brownsville and McAllen. According to officials, an explosive device was found and deactivated in front of the mayor’s office in Matamoros.

According to federal data, Tamaulipas state led the country in kidnappings in 2014, with 264 reported cases, compared with 211 that were reported in 2013. Homicides rose from 555 in 2013 to 628 in 2014.

Kosovo 2008 or 2015?

Since Kosovo’s declaration of independence in 2008, the country has been fighting an internal struggle, baited with ethnic division, corruption, organized crime, and political wrangling. The newly independent state has progressed in the past seven years. Yet, with its seven year birthday looming this month, it would seem that the country, with its continued international supervision and expected future EU accession, is not through the ethnic hatred of its past. Moreover, it would not be difficult to suppose that ethnic division, which led to the death and displacement of thousands in 1999, could potentially derail the country’s future. The dawn of 2015 saw Kosovo’s largest protests since 2008. And it all began with the ethnically charged comments of a government official.

On January 6 2015, the ethnic tension between the majority Albanian and minority Serb populations came to a head. During the Serbian Orthodox Christmas, around 100 Albanian protesters rallied against Serbian pilgrims who were traveling from Belgrade, Serbia, to visit an Orthodox Church in Gjakova. Many of those who rallied against the pilgrims were women who had lost family members in the 1999 Kosovo conflict. The pilgrims consequently called off their visit after their route was blocked and their buses pelted with Ice by the ethnic-Albanian protesters. To put it into context, the location of Gjakova was the scene of heavy fighting in Kosovo’s 1999 conflict. Following both heavy military and civilian bloodshed in Gjakova, the once ethnically mixed town is now a majority ethnic Albanian. The relatively small clash between the Serbs and Albanians at the beginning of January 2015 is far from an isolated incident in Kosovo. Nonetheless, it became the fuel for a series of violent protests in Kosovo.

Following the altercation between the Serbs and Albanians in Gjakova, Serbian Minister for Communities and Returns, Aleksandar Jablanovic, of the recently elected Isa Mustafa’s government, responded by calling the protesters “Savages”. His comments were followed by a public apology days later, in which Jablanovic apologized to the mothers and relatives of war victims for his comment. However, Jablanovic’s statement reopened deep wounds of ethnic hate in Kosovo. National-scale protests for his dismissal swiftly followed.

The protests began on January 16 and concluded in the largest and most violent protest in Kosovo’s independent history on January 27. The protests, comprised of thousands of people, took place across Kosovo, but primarily in the capital, Pristina and were organized by the nationalist opposition movement, Vetëvendosje. Over the course of the protests, police officers were forced to use tear gas and deploy water cannons on protesters as they threw stones, bricks, Molotov cocktails, and damaged government and private property. They carried Albanian flags and chanted “out with Jablanovic”, “Down with the government”. Protesters also attacked journalists who were attempting to report on the fierce demonstrations. Hundreds of protesters and police were injured in the violent clashes, which were for the large part, situated in and around Pristina’s famous Mother Teresa Street. The protests themselves were organized primarily to demand the dismissal of the Kosovo-Serb minister. However, Prime Minister Mustafa’s freshly elected government became an additional source of national dissatisfaction. Protesters also gathered to record their frustration with what they believe is the outgrown role of Serbia in Kosovo’s present and future. Supported by Vetëvendosje, the protesters called for Kosovo’s Prime Minister to carry out the nationalization of the Trepça mining complex. The nationalization of the Trepça mining complex, which is rich in lead, silver, and zinc, has always been met by Serbian contempt. Serbia firmly advocates its claim to the mine, as a result of Belgrade’s management of it during the final Yugoslav years. Subsequently, Mustafa’s dawdling nationalization of the mine has been perceived as not just an economic knock to Kosovo’s future, but also a grave disrespect to Kosovo’s national pride, which Kosovo Albanians fought so hard to achieve.

The run of violent protests during January has now concluded with the dismissal of Minister Jablanovic. Yet, the storm is far from over in Kosovo. The threat of further protests for the nationalization of the Trepça mining complex still remains. What is more, the ramifications of the public movements against the government and a government official are a stark reminder of the national pride felt by the ethnic Albanian majority. They are also a stark reminder of the underlying (most of the time) and constant ethnic division in Kosovo.

Boko Haram Launches First Attack on Niger

Witnesses reported Friday that Nigeria’s Boko Haram militant group has attacked a town in neighbouring Niger for the first time.

The attack targeted the Nigerien border town of Bosso, which is located just across the border from Nigeria. Fighting broke out around 9:00 AM (0800 GMT). According to one resident, locals “…can hear the sound of weapons all around the town…” adding “there is the noise of heavy weapons and of light arms, making our houses shake.” Yacouba Soumana Gaoh, governor of the regional capital of Diffa confirmed the attack, stating that troops pushed back the attack by the end of the morning, adding that by noon, order was restored. On the ground sources have reported that Niger’s army, alongside troops from Chad who have been stationed in Bosso since Monday, took on the Nigerian armed militants, adding that Boko Haram “took the municipality” for a time before being “driven back to Nigeria.” The attack comes as Niger’s parliament in the capital city Niamey is due to vote on 9 February on a proposal to send troops to Nigeria to fight Boko Haram.

Friday’s incident is the militant group’s second attack on a neighbouring country in the past two days. On Thursday, Boko Haram militants reportedly killed at least seventy people in an attack on the town of Fotokol in Cameroon. According to local officials, the militants attacked civilians in their homes and in the town’s mosque, setting many buildings on fire, including the mosque. Residents of Fotokol have reported that the militants had killed many people by slitting their throats. The militants were eventually driven back by Cameroonian troops, backed by Chadian forces, who had been deployed to the nearby Nigerian town of Gamboru as part of a regional force.   The attack came a day after a regional force indicated that it had driven the militants from a Nigerian town located near Fotokol.

On Tuesday, Chadian army disclosed that its troops had killed more than 200 militants in a battle to recapture Gamboru. Officials did note that some of the militants had escaped the offensive. Chadian troops have entered Nigeria and Cameroon to join the fight against Boko Haram.

The latest attacks come as Nigeria’s influential council of state announced Thursday that it has decided to go ahead with the presidential elections on 14 February, rejecting calls for a postponement.

Last month, Nigeria’s national security adviser had called for a delay to allow more time for voter card distribution. Officials have also raised their concerns over the on-going insurgency in northeastern Nigeria, which in recent months has seen Boko Haram mount its attacks both in Nigeria and in neighbouring Cameroon. However Imo state governor Rochas Okorocha indicated Thursday that election officials have insisted that they are “very ready.” Reports also emerged Thursday that a Nigerian government spokesperson disclosed that intelligence reports have indicated that the militant group is planning steal voter cards from women in a bid to use them to get suicide bombers into polling stations. In recent months, Boko Haram has increasingly been using female suicide bombers to carry out deadly attacks across northeastern Nigeria.

ISIS Targets Libyan Oil Field

4 February– Gunmen stormed a remote Libyan oil field, and killing twelve people on Tuesday. The extremists attacked the al-Mabrook oil field, nearly 105 miles south of Sirte. Among those killed were eight Libyans, two Filipino and two Ghanaian nationals. The Philippines Foreign Ministry said three Filipinos were among seven foreign nationals who had reportedly been kidnapped in the assault, however conflicting reports suggest that there have been no abductions.

Abdelhakim Maazab, commander of a security force in charge of protecting the oilfield said that most of the victims were “beheaded or killed by gunfire,” but does not report any kidnappings. A French diplomatic source in Paris and another Libyan official said Islamic State militants were behind the attack. In recent months, ISIS has made gains in Libya and has a stronghold in Derna. The group has reportedly set up training camps in the country’s eastern region, taking advantage of the deteriorating security situation in Libya.

France’s Total has a stake in the site, which is currently off-line, but it is contracted to a Libyan company. The Filipinos worked for an Italian company. Al-Mabrook closed following clashes which shut Es Sider in December. It used to pump 40,000 barrels a day. Total said it had already withdrawn staff from the site in 2013 and had no personnel onshore since July 2014. It was not clear whether Libya’s state-run National Oil Corp had employed expatriate staff at the field. Ali al-Hassi, spokesman for an oil guard force, blamed Islamists for the attack. “The field is outside of our control,” he said. “Islamic State is controlling it.”

The attack on the oil field comes a week after a separate attack targeting the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli. The hotel is frequented by government officials and foreign diplomats. The United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) has held functions in the hotel. Militants claiming links to Islamic State took responsibility for the deadly attack on the luxury hotel. However, officials of the government in Tripoli denied the claim, blaming “Gaddafi loyalists” for the assault.

Libya’s turmoil has deepened as two rival governments controlling different areas, compete for primacy, each with their own armies. Rival armed factions have also been fighting for almost two months for control of Libya’s biggest oil ports, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, on the Mediterranean coast.

The recognized government of Abdullah al-Thinni and elected parliament has had to work out of an eastern rump state since a faction called Libya Dawn seized Tripoli in August, setting up its own administration and reinstating the old assembly. Libya’s neighbours in the region have held meetings to discuss the spread of militants through their borders. The UN is working diligently to develop a peace agreement between the opposing governments, however progress has stalled as the Tripoli government has been unwilling to hold the meeting in Geneva, insisting it be held inside Libya. Talks are expected to resume in coming days.