MS Risk Blog

Pakistan Moves to End Policy on ‘Good Taliban’

After several months of moving away from supporting some jihadist groups, Pakistan may be making more substantial changes in the aftermath of the Peshawar school massacre. Pakistan’s security agencies have long used militant groups against India and Afghanistan. After the recent school massacre however, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif declared that the Pakistani government would no longer make a distinction between “good” militant groups, or those that help Islamabad achieve its foreign policy goals, and groups that do not. He added that militants “would be dealt equally with an iron hand.” Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan said last Sunday that Pakistan was at war with militants, and asked citizens to help authorities in a countrywide crackdown. Authorities subsequently made several arrests in connection to the school attack. Sharif also lifted a seven-year-old moratorium on the death penalty for terrorist cases, which resulted in the prompt execution of six prisoners. Pakistan’s military controls security policy independent of the civilian government, so it is currently unclear how closely it will follow a zero-tolerance approach to jihadists.  The knee-jerk reaction and quick executions of condemned prisoners who were unrelated to the Peshawar attack will be seen as ill-conceived by some quarters and will fuel further plots for “spectaculars” in future.  The domestic policy debate in coming months will reveal whether the current outcry and related security forces and judicial activity is the start of a new era in anti-terror operations and internal security policy or simple state vendetta in response to public outrage to the targeting of so many innocent children.

What a Lapse in Terrorism Insurance by US Congress Means for Businesses

largely as reported by PBS NewsHour host Judy Woodruff last week

The US Congress has adjourned without reauthorizing the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act beyond its sunset on Dec. 31, 2014, and the absence of the program could have far reaching effects on businesses across the United States. In an interview with PBS NewsHour, American Insurance Association (AIA) President and CEO Leigh Ann Pusey warned, “It’s very hard to conceive of the kinds of losses that can be associated with a terrorist attack. They’re well beyond the capacity of the insurance market right now to provide that.” She says as the program stands currently, many insurers would have to cover between $1 billion and $2 billion in losses before the government backstop would kick in, “and they’re paying a percentage of that backstop even after they have met the deductible.” She says that the program enables the market to charge premiums in exchange for covering the risks of terrorism, which otherwise would be covered by the US taxpayer, “and the more we get can comfortable with this risk over time, the more we can learn about it, we can take on more of it. It will never be a risk that can be totally borne by the private market. And it shouldn’t be… because … it’s national security.” Pusey says that because TRIA was not renewed, insurers will have to review their risks and capacity is likely to shrink over time, prices in certain markets are likely to rise, and some projects could be delayed if developers cannot obtain the required coverage.

Pirates hijack military gunboat in Nigeria’s oil delta

Nigeria’s military says pirates hijacked a military gunboat and three soldiers are missing after an ambush in the southern oil-rich state of Bayelsa.  Spokesman Col. Mustapha Anka says a team on patrol was ambushed Sunday 21 December 2014 on the Santa Barbara River, an area rife with pirates.  Anka said a search-and-rescue operation is continuing to locate the missing soldiers.  In October, pirates on the same river attacked a military escort for a barge carrying oil. They killed three soldiers and fled with a military gunboat.  Pirates in Nigeria steal oil and also kidnap for ransom.  The Nigerian military’s combined Joint Task Force continues to conduct operations to safeguard energy assets throughout the Niger Delta region.  A resurgence of violence by bandits and former members of MEND is an unwelcome distraction for the Nigerian authorities who are engaged in major counter-insurgency tasks in the north east of the country tackling Boko Haram militants whilst managing the effects of reduced oil prices and the consequences to the Nigerian economy.  MS Risk forecasts further security challenges in the region in the coming year.

Concerns of Copycat Attacks in France after Twenty People Left Injured in Three Separate Incidents

On Tuesday, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls sought to ease fears across the country after a recent spate of attacks.  The French government has urged the public to remain vigilant as authorities carry out investigations.  President Francois Hollande has called an emergency cabinet meeting for Tuesday and has urged the public not to panic.  While it appears that French authorities are playing down the idea that there is a pattern behind these three incidents, many are asking whether there is a copycat element to them.

It began on Saturday, when a man in the central town of Joue-les-Tours stabbed three police officers before being shot dead.  Bertrand Nzohabonayo was shot dead after he entered the police station armed with a knife and seriously wounded three officers.  Mr Nzohabonayo had previously committed petty offences however he was not on a domestic intelligence watch list.  According to a source, his brother is known for his radical views and once pondered travelling to Syria.  French anti-terrorism investigators have opened an inquiry into the attack.

Two other incidents followed Saturday’s attack.  On Sunday, a driver shouting “Allahu Akbar” (God is Great) ploughed his vehicle into pedestrians, injuring thirteen people in the city of Dijon.  The prosecutor has since indicated that the attacker had a long history of mental illness and that the incident is not linked to terrorism.  The latest attack occurred Monday, when ten people were injured after a van drove into a Christmas market in the western city of Nantes.  The attack occurred around 19:00 local time (1800 GMT), with witnesses reporting that the van drove into a stall that was selling mulled wine.  After the vehicle came to a halt, the driver stabbed himself in the chest several times, causing himself serious injuries.  French interior minister spokesman Pierre-Henry Brandet has indicated that the motive behind the attack is currently unclear.

While concerns that these attacks may be copycat incidents have spread across France, Prime Minister Valls indicated Tuesday that there was “no link” between these three incidents, adding that security forces are dealing with individuals who were acting alone.  According to Mr Valls, “we do not minimise these acts,” adding that the government wants to “reassure” the public and understand what had happened.

On Monday, Burundi authorities disclosed that they have arrested the brother of the man who was fatally shot in Joue-les-Tours.  Burundi’s National Intelligence Services confirmed that Brice Nzohabonayo was detained in the capital Bujumbura shortly after his brother Bertrand attacked a police station.  Burundi’s intelligence service is currently working with its French counterpart, with sources reporting that investigators are now seeking to establish if any attacks are being planned in Burundi as the country is a contributor to the African Union (AU) force that is currently battling al-Shabaab in Somalia.  Paris prosecutor Francois Molins also announced Monday that the suspect’s sister had been taken into custody on Saturday, adding that she would soon be released as there are no elements suggesting her complicity.

The three incidents in France come as governments around the world brace for so-called “lone wolf” attacks, which are carried out by individuals who are returning from waging jihad abroad, or who are simply following calls for violence made by Islamic State (IS).

Twin Attacks in Northeastern Nigeria

At least twenty-six people have been killed in attacks that were carried out in two major cities in northern Nigeria on Monday.

According to officials and eyewitnesses, the first attack occurred at the Dukku motor park on the outskirts of Gombe city, capital of Gombe state, at roughly 10:50 AM (0950 GMT). The explosion went off as people were boarding a nearby bus. At least twenty people were killed in that attack. Authorities have indicated that the bomb had been planted near a bus that was waiting to fill up. On the ground sources reported that shortly after the attack, a crowd had formed around the bus station, with several locals throwing stones at the security services. Anger has risen across northern Nigeria amidst growing complaints that the security services have repeatedly failed to contain the on-going violence.

The second explosion occurred late afternoon at a market in Bauchi city, the capital of Bauchi state. The attack occurred at roughly 5:00 PM (1600 GMT) however officials have not confirmed that a bomb was responsible. At least six people were killed. Authorities have warned that the death toll from both attacks is likely to rise in the coming days. No group has claimed responsibility for the two attacks however both targeted cities have been previously hit by Boko Haram. The militant group has also in the past claimed a number of attacks at bus stations, often targeting people who are heading to Nigeria’s mainly Christian south.

The attacks come in the wake of a new video released, depicting dozens of people being executed at a school dormitory. In the newly released video, images are shown of people being made to lay face down before being shot dead. There is currently no independent confirmation that Boko Haram is behind this video and it remains unclear where or when it was made however the video bears the militant group’s insignia and shows gun-wielding men chanting “Allah is great” and speaking in the Kanuri language that is associated with the group’s fighters. Boko Haram militants are also known to often target educational establishments.

Violence in the northeastern region of Nigeria is escalating ahead of the holiday season and the 14 February 2015 presidential elections, with many concerned that voting will be impossible in large parts of the region. Over the past several months, the situation in northeastern Nigeria has been worsening however Nigerian authorities appear to be ignoring the situation on the ground. President Goodluck Jonathan, who is running for a second term in office, has on several occasions claimed that Boko Haram’s defeat was imminent, even as the violence has continued to escalate. Last week’s kidnapping of 185 people, who were taken on 14 December from the town of Gumsuri in Borno state has highlighted the severity of the crisis and recalled the kidnapping of more than 200 schoolgirls from a school in the town of Chibok in April. At the time, President Jonathan vowed that such a mass abduction would not happen again.