MS Risk Blog

Protests Enter Third Day in DRC as President Attempts to Extend his Power

Gunshots were heard Wednesday in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s capital city, Kinshasa, as police cracked down on a new student demonstration at the city’s main university, following two days of bloody violence that has been sparked by attempts by President Joseph Kabila to extend his term in office beyond the 2016 presidential elections.

Protests erupted on Monday and have continued over the past days, with many heading to the streets, protesting against the government’s attempts to extend President Kabila’s term. On Wednesday, security forces sealed off the government-run University of Kinshasa, which has been the focal point of protests over the past three days. The protests also prompted the Roman Catholic Church to close its schools in the capital city on Wednesday, with Cardinal Pasinya announcing that they will remain closed until Monday. According to government spokesman Lambert Mende, eleven people, including a policeman, have been killed in the protests, with twenty-two others wounded. The opposition however has disputed these figures. Opposition leader Vital Kamerhe has indicated that at least twenty-eight protesters have been killed – twenty on Monday and eight on Tuesday. Protests in Kinshasa, which has a population of more than 9 million and which is seen as an opposition stronghold, are likely to continue over the coming days.

The protests coincided with a debate in the Senate, the upper parliamentary chamber, over government plans to hold a census before the elections. On Saturday, the lower chamber, the House of Representatives, approved the plan in a vote that was boycotted by the opposition MP’s. Most senators, including members of the governing party, have indicated that they are opposed to the plan as it risks destabilizing the country. The opposition has indicated that the move amounts to a “constitutional coup” by the president as it will take years for a census to be conducted in a country that has little infrastructure and which continues to be plagued by instability in the eastern region.

Opposition parties believe that the real aim of the new measures is to keep President Kabila in power after his mandate, which is set to expire in 2016. The president, who has won two disputed elections, is constitutionally barred from running for a third term. Sources have reported that the president’s regime is now seeking to make the staging of the presidential and parliamentary elections, which must be held by the end of 2016, contingent on the outcome of a census that is planned to start this year across the vast central African country. While the government had earlier indicated that it can complete the work within a year, this week, officials admitted that the election could be delayed and take place in 2017, however they have maintained that the census is vital to ensure that the polls are free and fair.

Both the opposition parties and regional analysts have indicated that the census would likely postpone the polls by at least two years and would effectively keep President Kabila in office for more than fifteen years. Officials have estimated that it would take up to three years to undertake a reliable census in a country that is still gripped by serious unrest in the east. The mineral-rich DRC has some 65 million people in a country that has little infrastructure and where difficult communications make any census highly difficult. The situation in the DRC is being closely followed after a move by Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Compaore late last year to extend his own time in office led to mass rallies that swiftly forced him to flee.

Kidnappings in CAR Possibly Linked to Recent Arrest of Vigilante Leader

Armed men kidnapped a female United Nations employee in the capital city on Tuesday, just one day after two aid workers were seized.

According to a source within the UN’s MINUSCA force in the Central African Republic (CAR), gunmen on Tuesday seized a female UN employee from a van that was taking UN staffers to work in Bangui. A statement released by the UN MINUSCA force has since confirmed the kidnapping, stating “unidentified armed men kidnapped on Tuesday a woman who works for MINUSCA after having stopped the vehicle in which she was travelling. A similar kidnap attempt failed just a bit earlier.” Tuesday’s kidnapping reportedly involves gunmen who appear to be linked to the mainly Christian anti-balaka militia. The abduction comes a day after a French charity worker and a man were seized in an area of the capital city that is controlled by anti-balaka fighters. Both kidnappings appear to be linked to the recent arrest of a vigilante leader.

On Monday, two people, including a 67-year-old French woman working for a Catholic medical charity, were kidnapped in the CAR. It is believed that the second hostage is a local man connected with the charity.

According to on the ground sources, a vehicle carrying the two was stopped by armed men in the capital city Bangui, with the militants later driving off with the hostages. According to the driver of the vehicle, Brother Elkana Ndawatcha, “the three of us were coming from Damara (north of Bangui)…when we were stopped by a group of four anti-balaka (militiamen) armed with Kalashnikovs in the middle of the city…They let me go after they robbed me of my mobile telephone, my bank documents and my money,” adding “one of them took my place at the wheel and took my colleagues deeper into Boy-Rabe district,” referring to one of the militia’s strongholds in the northeastern region of Bangui. Sources have revealed that the kidnappers, who are from the mainly Christian anti-balaka militia, were angry over the recent arrest of one of their leaders.

The CAR national secretary of Catholic Charity Caritas, Abby Elysee Guendjiande, confirmed the kidnapping, stating “when we called…(the French woman’s) telephone later the kidnappers picked up and said: ‘Release our General Andjilo and we will liberate the hostages.” The French government has condemned the kidnapping and has called for the unidentified woman to be freed immediately. The French embassy in Bangui is in contact with the city’s archbishop, who has been holding talks with the kidnappers.

Both kidnappings come just days after the CAR’s senior prosecutor announced that UN peacekeepers had arrested a senior leader, Rodrigue Nagibona, also known as General Andjilo, of the anti-balaka militia.

Prosecutors in the CAR disclosed Sunday that a power vigilante leader, accused of masterminding a massacre of some 300 minority Muslims in December 2013, has been arrested. According to prosecutors, UN Peacekeepers arrested General Andjilo, who had been on the run for several months, on Saturday in the north-western region of the country. A judicial source disclosed Sunday that a Cameroonian contingent of the UN force, MINUSCA, arrested Andjilo in the town of Bouca after a fire fight with “his men.” Maurice Dibert-Dollet, Bangui’s general prosecutor, confirmed the arrest, stating, “General Andjilo is wanted for multiple alleged crimes including killings, rebellion, illegal possession of weapons of war, criminal association, rape and pillage.” General Andjilo is associated with an attack on a MINUSCA convoy in October 2014 that left one Pakistani soldier dead.

Hostages Freed After Being Kidnapped by Boko Haram in Cameroon

Reports surfaced Monday that at least twenty of up to eight people, who were taken hostage by Boko Haram militants in Cameroon over the past weekend, have been freed.

Cameroon’s defence ministry disclosed Monday that the hostages were freed “as defence forces pursued the attackers who were heading back to Nigeria.” Many of those kidnapped in the cross-border raid are said to be children. It is one of the largest abductions by Boko Haram to take place outside Nigeria and it has raised fears that the militant group is expanding its operations into neighbouring countries. It is also the first major attack on Cameroon since Boko Haram’s leader, Abubakar Shekau, threatened President Paul Biya in a video posted online earlier this month.

The abductions took place in the villages of Maki and Mada, near the city of Mokolo, in Cameroon’s Far North region. According to Cameroonian police and local officials, the militants arrived during the early morning hours on Sunday, with on the ground sources reporting that many of those abducted were women and children. Prior to leaving the area, the attackers burned dozens of homes. It remains unclear exactly how the hostages became detached from the main group as Cameroonian authorities have not released details pertaining to the military operation, nor has there been any word from those freed or from the militants.

Boko Haram has seized control of towns and villages in northeastern Nigeria and has begun threatening neighbouring countries. It is believed that the militant group is now in control of areas in northeastern Nigeria that border Cameroon, Chad and Niger. This has prompted fears that militants will not only be able to easily stage attacks within Nigeria, but will also be able to carry out cross-border attacks into Nigeria’s neighbours.

Fears of Boko Haram expanding its operations have resulted in Chad recently deploying soldiers to help Cameroon tackle the militant group. On Friday, Ghana’s President John Mahama disclosed that African leaders would discuss plans this week to “deal permanently” with Boko Haram, suggesting that a multinational force may be considered. Those options follow months of criticism by Niger and Cameroon, who have maintained that Nigerian officials have failed to do more in order to stop Boko Haram’s attacks. Many believe that despite Boko Haram increasing its tempo of attacks, Nigerian politicians are now more focused on campaigning, ahead of next month’s presidential elections, then focusing on the security issues.

Pakistan’s Possible Links to Terrorist Organizations

Since the launch of Operation Zarb-e-Azb on June 15, 2014, Pakistan’s efforts to combat militant groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have somewhat revived Washington’s flagging confidence in Islamabad and have led to greater levels of cooperation between the two countries. However, a statement made on January 13, 2015 by U.S Secretary of State John Kerry at a press conference in Islamabad suggests that America still believes Pakistan is playing a “double game”; that it is continuing to use terrorist groups to advance its own foreign policy interests. After being questioned by a reporter about Pakistan’s willingness to target groups like the Haqqani Network, the Afghan Taliban and Lashkar-e Tayyiba Secretary Kerry said: “we’ve been very clear with the highest levels of the Government of Pakistan that Pakistan has to target all militant groups, the Haqqani Network and others…And Pakistan has made it very clear that they intend to do so.” While it is as yet too early to say whether or not Pakistan will remain committed to the war on terror, one thing is clear: Pakistan’s strategic interests in Afghanistan and India will be difficult to promote if they are forced to sever ties with all the militant groups currently residing within their borders.

Ample evidence of Pakistan’s dealings with terrorist groups has emerged over the past decade. In 2006, a leaked British Defence Ministry Report claimed that “Indirectly Pakistan (through the [Inter-Services Agency]) has been supporting terrorism and extremism.” In a 2009 interview, U.S Defence Secretary Robert Gates accused Pakistan of “playing both sides”, claiming that they use groups like the Taliban to ensure that they will have leverage in Afghanistan once the U.S leaves. This explains why Pakistan has not received certification from the State Department for having met the requirements of the Kerry-Lugar Bill (in which authorisation for appropriation of funds requires, amongst other things, evidence of a “sustained commitment…towards combatting terrorist groups”) since 2011. Progress has been made, State Department officials claim, but not enough.

As far as Islamabad is concerned, to the extent that terrorist groups have helped advance Pakistan’s goals, they have served a useful purpose. But the cost of entering into a Faustian pact with them has been immense. It has resulted in the emergence of factions and splinter groups who attack Pakistanis and push Islamabad into conflicts which have the potential to undermine their security at home and their strategic interests abroad.

Two incidents in particular are responsible for the vigour with which the Pakistani army is currently waging war against militant groups. The first occurred on June 8, 2014, when ten members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a TTP affiliate, launched an attack on Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, killing twenty six people and wounding eighteen. In the days following this attack, the Pakistani military launched a series of attacks which culminated in Operation Zarb-e-Azb, a comprehensive military offensive which is being waged against militant groups in North Waziristan. So far, the campaign has brought about the deaths of more than 1,100 militants and dramatically reduced the operational capabilities of groups fighting in the area. It has also demonstrated an increased willingness on Islamabad’s part to hunt down groups which it is alleged to have supported. When Pakistan’s army chief Raheel Sharif visited Washington in November 2014, he was praised by the Pentagon for having targeted the Haqqani Network, which both the U.S and Afghan governments have accused Pakistan of protecting in the past.

The second incident took place on December 16, 2014, when nine members of the TTP entered a school in Peshawar and killed 145 people, 132 of whom were children. It was, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said, a “decisive moment”, and one in which should cause Pakistanis to unite against a common enemy. In the days following the attack Pakistan’s military, intelligence and police forces launched successive punitive strikes against militants, resulting in numerous deaths including TTP commander Abid Muchar. It is significant that after the attack, Pakistan’s Prime Minister said that there would no longer be any distinction drawn between “good Taliban and bad Taliban”; a tacit acknowledgement of the patronage which Pakistan had formerly bestowed upon terrorist groups.

After the massacre in Peshawar, there was an outpouring of grief across the country. The Pakistan People’s Party and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement announced a three day period of mourning, while the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam declared that scheduled protests would be postponed, out of respect for the deceased and their families. In Islamabad, protestors gathered outside the Red Mosque when a hard-line Islamic cleric Maulana Abdul Aziz refused to condemn the attack. For now, it seems as though Pakistan has been united against terror. Whether or not this state continues will, as Secretary Kerry said, be determined by the actions by the government “over the coming weeks.” But in order to ensure that Pakistan remains committed to the fight against terror two things must happen: first, its security services must stop using terrorist groups as proxies and second, its leadership must rethink its ambitions in Afghanistan and India. Until then, the situation in Pakistan and its relationship with the United States seems unlikely to change.

AQAP claims responsibility for Charlie Hebdo attack

On 14 January, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack on Charlie Hebdo’s which killed 12 last week. In a speech by AQAP senior official Nasser bin Ali al Ansi entitled “Vengeance for the Messenger of Allah,” Al Ansi says, “We in the Organization of Qa’idatul Jihad in the Arabian Peninsula claim responsibility for this operation as a vengeance for the Messenger of Allah.”

Al Ansi and AQAP take responsibility for selecting the target, planning and financing the operation. He adds that the operation was under the “order of our general emir, the generous Sheikh Ayman bin Muhammad al Zawahiri.” and the “will” of Sheikh Osama bin Laden.

AQAP had threatened Charlie Hebdo editor Stephane Charbonnier in the past. The editor was named specifically in a poster enclosed in a 2013 issue of Inspire magazine. The poster listed names of individuals wanted, “Dead or Alive For Crimes Against Islam.” Charbonnier, was killed in the attack.

While taking responsibility for attacks on the magazine conducted by brothers Cherif and Said Kouachi, al Ansi denies any connections to the killings conducted by Ahmed Coulibaly, who conducted an attack at a kosher grocery store in Paris, killing four, including a French police officer. Al Ansi calls it “tawfeeq” (good fortune) that the operation coincided with the attack conducted by Coulibaly.

Al Ansi’s description of the Kouachi brothers is consistent with other evidence. Cherif Kouachi gave an interview to a French tv station while hiding in a printing factory after the Paris attack. He stated, “I was sent, me, Cherif Kouachi, by al Qaeda in Yemen. I went there and Sheikh Anwar al Awlaki financed my trip.”

It is believed that the brothers may have travelled to Yemen and met directly with Awlaki. Some reports have indicated that Cherif, the younger of the brothers, was the aggressor in the attacks. It has also been suggested that the brothers received training and financing from AQAP.

Separately, in an interview with a French television station, Ahmed Coulibaly said he was a member of ISIS. A video posted online after Coulibaly’s death shows him pledging allegiance to the terrorist group and its leader, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. Coulibaly claimed no ties to al Qaeda, which has an intense rivalry with ISIS