MS Risk Blog

ISIS attempts to Penetrate Jordanian Borders

25 November– ISIS has released photographs of a vehicle-borne IED (VBIED) being detonated at the Trebil border complex, near the Karameh border crossing with Jordan. The explosion took place in the Trebil, a village on the in the Anbar province in Iraq.  The attack is believed to have killed four and wounded four members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). ISIS overtook the Trebil crossing on 22 June, but was retaken by the Iraqi military two days later. The crossing has remained a contested area.

In Jordan, the momentum of ISIS, coupled with supporters and sleeper cells believed to be inside the kingdom have sparked concerns that the group could enter the borders through “back door” channels. Thus far, it does not appear that ISIS has gained momentum. Jordanian leadership and security forces have developed military, diplomatic, and psychological tactics to repel or halt actions taken by ISIS supporters or fighters.

The Jordanian military is tasked with protecting the Hashemite Kingdom at any cost, and can act to protect national security without the approval of the King. In the past week, over 100 members of the Jordanian military and Special Operation Forces (SOF) have entered Iraq to prevent a forward advance by ISIS. The teams have conducted precision strikes and interrupted ISIS momentum. Inside Jordan’s borders, it is known that there are ISIS sleeper cells in the regions of Zarqa and Ma’an. Jordanian forces have tracked, detained, released, and released suspects, and they remain under watch for collaboration with the terrorist group.

The military has also employed foreign help. Israel is providing overhead imagery to Jordan to use in its fight against ISIS on its borders. On Thursday, the French government deployed six Mirage fighter jets to assist in the ongoing battle. French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that the deployment would “strengthen our presence in this theater of operations.” The French fighters are expected to join the Jordanian forces at the end of the month.

Diplomatically, Jordanian leadership is working with Chechen leaders in Grozny to seek and capture ISIS fighters. In mid-November, King Abdullah II went to met with Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov to discuss counterterrorism issues. A Jordanian official revealed that the leaders reached an agreement: Jordan will invest in Chechnya’s infrastructure, and in exchange, the Chechens will provide information on Chechens and North Caucasians tied to ISIS and other groups in the Syrian battle space. Captured fighters will be returned to Chechnya for prosecution.

Finally, the Jordanian government is developing a counter narrative campaign against ISIS. The nation has employed two powerful clerics, Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi, also known as Isam Mohammad Taher al-Barqawi, and Abu Qatada, aka Omar Othman. Maqdisi, who was released from Jordanian prison in mid-November, inspired Abu Musab al-Zarqawi , the al-Qaeda leader during the height of the Iraq War. Qatada was transferred from the UK to Jordan in 2013 in order to stand trial for terrorism acts in Jordan. Both clerics have spoken out against the conflict and will likely be used, along with others in an information campaign. However, they will be watched carefully to ensure that the counter narrative does not impose an additional threat vector.

ISIS is attempting to destabilise current governments in order to capture infrastructure and territory, while simultaneously playing on sectarian battles in the region. Jordan’s three pronged approach is likely to keep ISIS at bay in the immediate to mid-term range, but will rely heavily on actions taken by Kurdish, Iraqi, and coalition forces to reduce the threat.

Global kidnap risk rises as UK Government plans legislation to prevent insurance payments

MS Risk Limited, a leading independent crisis response company serving the Lloyd’s of London specialty risk insurance market, issues its annual Kidnap for Ransom Review as the UK government debates  adjusting legislation on the future legal status of kidnap insurance, which prevents reimbursement of terrorist ransom payments.

In the absence of effective prevention and professional  law enforcement response, business travellers, tourists, aid workers, journalists and local nationals in at least 53 countries remain dangerously exposed to this cowardly crime and the impacts it has on hostages, their family members, employers, communities and governments.

The MS Risk  report shows a particular trend in the Middle East and North Africa region by terrorists and criminal gangs using terrorist labels, to invoke fear to demand ransoms and political concessions through kidnap operations.  This is assessed as representing 11% of global kidnap incidents during the preceding twelve months.

Incidents in the Maghreb and wider Sahel regions of sub-Saharan Africa fuel an estimated 29% of global kidnap events.  Bold spectaculars – in particular by Boko Haram – and the regular use of middlemen for mediation and poor engagement with adversaries is contributing to increased expectations on ransoms and other concessions by militants.

Some cases do not result in demands and captives are held for protracted periods and used as human shields or for future unclarified purposes.

Latin America and Asia continue to see respective climbs in kidnapping and extortion incidents.  Holistic reporting remains unclear and the threat is largely ill defined due to inconsistent data capture.

Further Information:

Liam Morrissey, Chief Executive Officer +44 (0) 207 754 3555 or info@msrisk.com

Issued by Pat Adamson, MTI Network. +44 (0) 7836 766 947  or Will Marks +44 (0) 207 823 9444

The full report can be provided to accredited industry and media  contacts only.

Note:

MS Risk Limited:

MS Risk acts on a non-exclusive basis for Lloyd’s of London registered underwriters and brokers providing crisis response services.  These services are performed internationally and include responses to kidnap, extortion, hijack, illegal detention and malicious product tamper events.  MS Risk serves insurers and works directly for corporations, non-governmental organisations and private individuals to mitigate these threats, to assess and understand risks and to create robust secure and safe conditions for clients in challenging environments.  A new breed security consultancy, its principals have worked around the world successfully supporting commercial interests with effective and proportionate security controls and crisis response services for over twenty years.  It’s hotline service, team of analysts and response consultants serve clients worldwide on a 24/7 basis.

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Twin Bombings in Maiduguri

In what is the latest wave of attacks to be blamed on Boko Haram, at least forty-five people were killed Tuesday when two female suicide bombers blew themselves up in a crowded market in northeastern Nigeria. The explosions come as suspected Boko Haram militants have control of another town in northeastern Nigeria.

The explosions occurred around 11 AM (1000GMT) on One Way road in the Borno state capital Maiduguri, near the Monday Market area where at least fifteen people were killed in an attack carried out by suspected Boko Haram militants on 1 July. An official from Nigeria’s National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) confirmed “many people have been killed,” but that an official death toll has not been compiled. According to on the ground sources, the first bomber stood by a motorized rickshaw packed with goods in the busy market and took a call on her mobile phone. She later dropped the mobile phone and blew herself up. Officials currently believe that the bomb was likely concealed in the rickshaw. According to an eyewitness, “about 10 minutes later, another woman who looked about 19 and carrying what looked like a baby on her back…arrived at the scene that was crowded with rescuers and locals….She then detonated the bomb on her back.”

In recent months, northern Nigeria has increasingly been hit by a wave of suicide bomb attack carried out by women. In July, there were four such attacks that occurred within a week in Kano city. Officials believe that Boko Haram is using either willing volunteers or coercing young women and girls into carrying out suicide attacks. According to sources, three women, said to be “female recruiters” for Boko Haram were reportedly arrested in July while an alleged trainer of women bombers was detained in August in Kano with up to 16 “trainees.”

Tuesday’s attacks also came after the militants seized control of another town in Nigeria’s restive northeast. Early Monday, Boko Haram took over the town of Damasak, located less than 200 kilometres (125 miles) from Maiduguri, in the far north of Borno, near the border with neighbouring Niger. According to local sources, the militants entered the town disguised as traders, carrying boxes that were packed with AK-47 rifles. They then set fire to houses and killed an unspecified number of people.

Yemeni Forces Free Hostages; Security Breach at Sana’a Embassy

25 November– In an overnight operation, Yemeni Special Forces freed eight hostages who had been held by a group tied to al-Qaeda in Lahji province, Southern Yemen. Seven of the kidnappers were reportedly killed in the operation.

Sources state that seven Yemeni nationals were released, along with an eighth foreign national. The Yemeni Supreme Security Committee did not disclose the nationality of the foreign hostage. Sources suggest the victim was a US military instructor who worked at al-Anad Air Base, nearly 37 miles north of Aden. However senior US defence officials have denied these reports. In 2012, the US resumed on-the-ground military training in an attempt to arm Yemeni security forces in the fight against al Qaeda. It is believed that the rescue operation took place near the base. One member of the Yemeni Special Forces was lightly wounded in the mission.

Kidnapping has become increasingly common in Yemen. In recent years, Al Qaeda has taken advantage of the “hostage black market” in which they outsource the seizing of hostages to regional tribes, gangs or affiliates, who are in turn, paid a commission. This practice has been used by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen, which is regarded as one of the most active al Qaeda branches in the world. AQAP has been known to work with local tribes that abduct victims for financial benefit. Al Qaeda collects the hostages and seeks to negotiate for ransom. Further, political kidnapping has occurred in instances where tribesmen kidnap victims in an attempt to resolve disputes with the government.

Meanwhile, a potential security breach has been reported at the US Embassy in Yemen. A corrupt worker is believed to have taken bribes and processed as many as 50 fraudulent visas, allowing applicants to enter the United States with falsified documents. The documents claim that the applicants were to travel to Houston for an oil industry conference. The State Department investigation reveals that the oil companies listed on the applications were fictitious, and none of the applicants attended the ‘Offshore Technology Conference’ after travelling to the US. The whereabouts of the Yemeni nationals are unknown. Further, the true purpose of their entry to the US is unclear; speculation ranges from attempts to conduct terrorist operations in the US, to fleeing from a war torn nation. It is unknown whether the entrants pose a risk to national security.

The visas were issued at the US embassy in Sana’a. A legal complaint lists a single defendant, who was discovered working in a grocery store in the Bronx, New York. He has been arrested on fraud charges and is held without bail.

Burkina Faso Introduces New Interim Government

Burkina Faso’s new interim government is set to hold its first meeting Monday, just three weeks after the army took over in the wake of a popular revolt that resulted in the resignation of President Blaise Compaore. While the new interim government will be in control of the West African country until presidential elections are held November 2015, it is evident that the country’s army will retain a powerful position – a move that has caused some concern across the country.

Officials confirmed Sunday that Lieutenant Colonel Isaac Zida will remain prime minister over the next year and will also take the defence minister post. Alain Thierry Ouattara, the new government secretary general announced Sunday that the military will also have control of the interior ministry. In all, four military members are included in the 26-member cabinet. Interim civilian President Michel Kafando will also b the country’s foreign minister. No opposition figures are among the members of the new interim government. This was done by choice as no one within the interim government will be allowed to stand in next year’s elections. This includes the interim president and prime minister.

President Kafando, a former diplomat, took office on Friday and will lead the country during the transitional 12-month period after veteran president Blaise Compaore was forced from power in a wave of popular unrest last month. The military has pledged to help bring the country back to full civilian rule. While the new government was initially expected to be unveiled on Thursday, and then Saturday, it was repeatedly held up by differences between the rival parties. According to sources, the delay was caused by the military’s opposition to several ministerial candidates who had been proposed by civil society groups.

Despite a civilian in power, the military’s control of the security services effectively means that army officers will remain a powerful political force. This has caused some civil society representatives to voice concern, particularly over Lt. Col. Zida’s appointment. Some residents of Ouagadougou have called the move a betrayal of their “revolution.”

The new government is set to hold its first cabinet meeting at 10:00 AM Monday

Meanwhile on Friday, ousted president Blaise Compaore flew to Morocco from the Ivory Coast, where he had fled after his long rule ended on 31 October. It currently remains unclear how long Mr Compaore will remain in Morocco.