MS Risk Blog

The End of Cuba’s Isolation

The end of Cuba’s isolation from the global policing fraternity after over a half a decade has opened the doors to a multitude of questions concerning the security of the country, the region, and its relations with the United States. Although not official until codified in legislation and approved by congress, the surprising change of events in December resulted from secret phone calls between U.S. President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raúl Castro. The agreement between the Presidents will, effectively, re-establish relations between the two countries and open the door to an important opportunity for the U.S. to revamp its relationship with the region.

The surprising turn of events contradicts the U.S.’s long-term policy of isolation for Cuba. The instigation of normalization will relax travel, diplomatic, and economic restrictions between the two countries. Further to the agreement between the two leaders, the end of Cuba’s isolation comes with the condition of release of Americans and dissidents from Cuban soil. As a part of the normalization, Cuba will also permit officials from the Red Cross and the United Nations to return to its soil. Not only this, but further to Cuba’s situation, the country’s status as a, “state sponsor of terrorism”, will now come under review from the U.S. Secretary of State, John Kerry. The removal of such a status will have an impact on the sanctions that continue to be applied to Cuba.

Cuba’s developments with the U.S. come with potential benefits for both countries, the prospect of improving U.S. security in the region being one of them. In so far as to say, the normalization of relations between Cuba and the U.S. has the potential to arm Cuba with an economic position in the region that will advance the U.S.’s strategic interests and help the U.S. to deal with regional security challenges. Moreover, the policy-shift is likely to expand Cuba’s participation in the regional economy and in doing so, it has the potential to encourage Cuba to collaborate with other countries in the fight against drug trafficking, human trafficking and illegal immigration. However, there is a feasibly volatile side to the situation, as the normalization of relations could see traffickers establish Cuba as a fertile base for transit to Florida and onwards. The potential for such a situation raises some serious questions for the U.S. and the management of such security issues. One must ask if the Cuban law enforcement authorities are prepared a rise in criminal endeavors, resulting from the end of its isolation.

Whilst the ramifications of the official normalization deal between the U.S. and Cuba will follow a congressional approval, all that is certain at this point is that the Obama administration’s policy-shift is one which has not only re-established diplomatic relations between the two countries, it has also fuelled Cuba’s re-integration into the economic, political, and strategic-security realm.

8 January Update: Charlie Hebdo Shooting

8 January – French anti-terrorism police have moved in on an area northeast of Paris after two men wanted for an attack on a satirical newspaper were spotted at a gasoline station in the region. The men, identified as brothers as Cherif and Said Kouachi, aged 32 and 34, were already under watch by security services. The men are are believed responsible for killing 12 people at the Charlie Hebdo weekly, the worst attack in France for decades. Fears have arisen that they could strike again. Two police sources have said that the men were seen armed and driving a Renault Clio at a petrol station in Villers-Cotterets, 40 miles outside of Paris.

On Wednesday, two gunmen with Kalashnikovs exited a black car and forced an employee of the magazine to let them into the building in central Paris. Once inside, witnesses say that the assailants deliberately targeted journalists, killing the publication’s editor, Stephane Charbonnier, as well as killing or wounding a number of cartoonists. One report indicates that the killers asked for people by name. Two policemen were also killed in the attack. The attackers then entered a black getaway car and fled the scene before moving to a stolen car.

On Wednesday night, the youngest shooter, an 18-year-old man, turned himself into police near the Belgian border. A legal source said he was the brother-in-law of one of the main suspects. A total of seven people had been arrested since the attack, mostly acquaintances of the two main suspects. One source said one of the brothers had been identified by his identity card, left in the getaway car.

Security services have feared that nationals drawn into militant groups fighting in Syria and Iraq could return to their home countries to launch attacks; however there is no concrete evidence that the two suspects actually fought abroad. Terrorist organisations have repeatedly threatened France with attacks over its military strikes on Islamist strongholds in the Middle East and Africa. Extremist ire was directed at Charlie Hebdo, which has published numerous cartoons ridiculing the Prophet Mohammad. Militants online repeatedly warned that the magazine would pay for its mockery. No group has officially claimed credit for today’s attack, although witnesses report that the attackers claimed they were members of al Qaeda. Corinne Rey, the cartoonist who was forced to let the attackers into the building, said that “[t]hey spoke French perfectly; they said they were al Qaeda.” Cédric Le Béchec, another witness, stated that one of the attackers said “Tell the media that this is al Qaeda in the Yemen [AQAP.]”

The professionalism of the attack does suggest that the shooters may have received weapons instructions at a training facility, or are ex-military. The use of heavily armed gunmen to attack well-defended targets is commonly used by militant groups including al Qaeda, ISIS, and the Taliban. It is also a tactic used by militant fighters in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, and Nigeria. Some analysts also suggest that the fighters may have also been self-radicalised over the internet. The most recent issue of AQAP’s Inspire magazine, which discussed how to conduct lone gunmen attacks, included a “Wanted” poster entitled, “Dead or Alive For Crimes Against Islam.” The poster is intended to encourage followers to kill people who have supposedly offended Islam. Among the list is Charlie Hebdo editor-in-chief Charbonnier, who was killed during the attack. Charbonnier had been living under police protection because of previous threats against his life. In October 2012, al Qaeda spokesman Adam Gadahn mentioned Charlie Hebdo in an audio message: “And here is France mocking again our Prophet, Allah’s peace and prayer be upon him, and our Shariah and the recent progress that Muslims achieved in the Arab revolutions […] So, where are the lions of Islam to retaliate for their Prophet, Allah’s peace and prayer be upon, against France and its immoral newspaper [sic] Charlie Hebdo. We ask Allah to reward in the best way those who burned its headquarters and hacked its website, for you cooled off the chests of Muslims. Is there more?” Currently, no concrete links to terrorist organisations have been made.

Meanwhile, tens of thousands have taken part in vigils across the nation to defend freedom of speech, many wearing badges declaring “Je Suis Charlie” (I Am Charlie) in support of the newspaper and the principle of freedom of speech. France’s Muslim Council issued a call for “all Imams in all of France’s mosques to condemn violence and terrorism wherever it comes from in the strongest possible way.” The Muslim community also fears retaliatory strikes; police sources have reported that the window of a kebab shop next to a mosque in the town of Villefrance-sur-Saone was blown out by an overnight explosion. No one was wounded. Three blank grenades were thrown at a mosque shortly after midnight in the city of Le Mans, and a bullet hole was also found in a window of the mosque. In the Port-la-Nouvelle district near Narbonne in southern France, several shots were fired in the direction of a Muslim prayer hall shortly after evening prayers. The hall was empty, the local prosecutor said.

Earlier today, a police woman was killed in a shootout in Paris, however it is unknown whether the killing is linked to yesterdays shooting spree. The policewoman and a colleague were reportedly attending a traffic accident. Witnesses reported that the shooter fled in a Renault Clio; police observed the assailant wore a bullet-proof vest and had a handgun and assault rifle. However one officer said the shooter did not resemble the Charlie Hebdo shooters.

Manhunt Underway in Paris After Gunmen Attack Magazine Office

French officials have confirmed that twelve people have been killed and eleven injured after gunmen attacked the Paris office of French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo. Police have launched a major operation in the Paris area in their hunt for the attackers who escaped shortly after the attack. While police officials have not yet commented on the incident, sources have reported that this attack may stem for the magazine’s recent tweet, which depicted a cartoon of the Islamic State militant group leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The tweet came shortly after the Islamic State threatened to attack France. The satirical weekly magazine has in the past been targeted for its irreverent take on news and current affairs. French President Francois Hollande is currently at the scene and is planning to hold an emergency cabinet meeting.

The office of Charlie Hebdo, located in Paris’ 11^th arrondissement, was attacked at about midday on Wednesday. The attack occurred as staff members were attending their weekly editorial meeting. An eyewitness has reported “two black-hooded men entered the building with Kalashnikovs…a few minutes later we heard lots of shot.” Sources have reported that the two gunmen were wearing black balaclavas, khaki ammunition pouches and were armed with Kalashnikovs and a rocket-propelled grenade. They were heard shouting “Allahu Akbar.” Sources have indicated that three men, described by a police union spokesman as “commandos,” are currently on the run. They fled in a getaway car that was driven by a fourth suspect shortly after a shootout in the street with police officers.

Officials have confirmed that twelve people have been killed. Two of those killed are police officers while the remaining are journalists. One source has reported that some of the magazine’s cartoonists, including the editor in chief and graphic artist, are among the dead. Five of those wounded are critically injured and officials have warned that the death toll may increase in the coming hours. Speaking to reporters at the scene, French President Francois Hollande indicated that there was no doubt that this was a terrorist attack “of exceptional barbarity.” The president is due to give a televised address this evening at 8 PM Paris time. Both the White House and UK Prime Minister David Cameron have condemned the attack in Paris.

In the wake of this attack, France has reinforced security at places of worship, shops, media offices and transportation. France’s security level has now been raised to the highest alert. Police have also warned French media to be on alert and to pay attention to security following this attack. Wednesday’s attack ranks as one of the deadliest attacks on Paris since 1995, when a bomb exploded at the Saint-Michel subway station, killing eight.

France was already on high alert for Islamist attacks after several incidents occurred just before Christmas. Cars were driven at shoppers in two cities, Dijon and Nantes, and police officials were attacked by a man wielding a knife in the central town of Joue-les-Tours. While at the time the French government denied that the attacks were linked, officials later announced plans to further raise security in public spaces, including the deployment of around 300 soldiers.

Threats Failed to Silence Magazine

The office of Charlie Hebdo magazine in central Paris have been targeted in the past over the magazine’s controversial content.

In the early morning hours of 2 November 2011, the paper’s office was fire-bombed just hours after an issue featuring a cartoon of the Prophet Mohammed, in which the religious figure was listed as “editor-in-chief.” The provocative move was not unusual for the magazine, which for the past several decades has been making fun of politics and religion.

In 1969, just one year after its launch, the magazine was banned by the Minister of the Interior after it mocked the media coverage of the death of former French president Charles de Gaulle. The paper, which was then known as Hara-Kiri Hebdo, later changed its name in order to sidestep the ban. While the magazine folded in 1981, it was reborn in 1992, with the first edition selling 100,000 copies. The magazine has on several occasions been warned over its publications. In 2006, then French President Jacques Chirac warned “over provocations’ of other religions should be avoided. The warning came after the paper’s front page depicted a cartoon of a weeping Prophet Mohammed. The magazine has not only targeted Islam, but other religions as well. In 2008, accusations of anti-Semitism were laid against a veteran cartoonist who was later fired. In September 2012, in the aftermath of attacks on US embassies in the Middle East, the magazine published more satirical cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed. That publication resulted in security being increased at several French embassies and riot police being stationed outside the paper’s office in order to ensure security.

ISIS emir beheaded after execution video released

6 January – A top figure from within ISIS police forces has been has been found decapitated in Syria. The man was an Egyptian national, believed to be the deputy “emir” of the al-Hesbah force in a Syrian province. His body was found near a power plant in Deir-al-Zor province, where heavy fighting has taken place in the last month. Reports indicated that his body showed signs of torture; the head was allegedly found with a cigarette left in its mouth, while the sentence “O Sheikh this is munkar (hateful and evil thing)” was written on his body. It is believed that ISIS has banned residents in areas under its control from drinking or smoking. Shop owners found guilty of selling cigarettes in some of its strongholds have been publicly flogged. It is unknown whether the man was killed by ISIS, local residents, or foreign fighters.

The alleged beheading comes after ISIS released gruesome photos purporting to show the brutal execution of Iraqi police and men it accused of informing on the group. A video entitled ‘Day of Retribution’ showed eight captives wearing microphones before being shot dead by 12 militants. The officers were accused of spying on ISIS on behalf of the Iraqi military, and identifying targets for US led coalition strikes on ISIS targets. In the video the men are seen in kneeling on the ground wearing orange uniforms, similar to those worn by prisoners at Guantanamo Bay.

The officers are shown blindfolded and handcuffed as ISIS fighters march them along the edge of a river. The men were forced to kneel on the shore underneath a bridge and executed with a bullet to the back of the head.

Boko Haram Captures Army Base

Officials confirmed Sunday that the militant group Boko Haram has seized control of a town and key multinational military base in northeastern Nigeria, in what appears to be the latest advance by the group to create an Islamic State.

A senator in Borno state confirmed Sunday that troops had abandoned the base, which is located in the town of Baga, after militants attacked the town on Saturday. Residents of Baga, who fled by boat to neighbouring Chad, have disclosed that many people were killed in the attack, adding that the town was later set ablaze. Several residents reported that they had woken to heavy gunfire as militants stormed Baga early on Saturday, attacking from all directions.   Some eyewitnesses disclosed that they had decided to flee after seeing the multi-national troops deserting their posts. Communications with the town remain cut off and exact information about casualty numbers have not been confirmed.

Boko Haram’s takeover of Baga is significant as the town, which was the scene of a Nigerian army massacre in 2013, was the last in the Borno North area still under the government’s control. The town also hosted the base of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), which is composed of troops from Nigeria and neighbouring Chad and Niger. Sources have confirmed that the base is now under Boko Haram’s control. The MNJTF was set up in 1998 and tasked to fight trans-border crime in the Lake Chad region. Most recently, the task force was charged with combatting Boko Haram.

Over the past month, Boko Haram has intensified its attacks on towns and villages, carrying out almost daily attacks. The militant group has also launched several mass kidnappings, taking captive hundreds, including young boys and girls. Many believe that the militant group is attempting to replenish its ranks as its aims to solidify its grip on the areas of northeastern Nigerian already under its control. The Nigerian military, which includes Western advisers and surveillance, has been incapable of dealing with the growing problem, which is now rapidly transforming into a region-wide threat. Nigeria’s home-grown Boko Haram group has begun regionalizing the conflict, launching a several attacks across the border into Cameroon in recent weeks.