Yemen: Houthi Rebels and Government Reach Tentative Deal

After days of fighting in Yemen, the government and Houthi rebels reached a tentative deal on Wednesday, ending a standoff that caused Aden air and sea ports to close, and oil production to halt. As of Thursday morning, all ports have reopened. Oil production will likely start after the return of the president’s abducted Chief of Staff, Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak.

On 17 January, the Houthi rebels abducted Mubarak as he was enroute to present a draft of the nation’s new constitution. The Houthis had vocally argued that the commission drafting the constitution must ensure greater representation for marginalised groups in Yemen, particularly the Houthis. They said they had become aware of “irregularities” in both the text and how the government was planning to make it law. The new constitution could divide Yemen into a six-region federation. The Houthis oppose such a move and support the country becoming two federal regions.

Upon Mubarak’s abduction, leaders from Southern Yemen gave the Houthis 24 hours to release Mubarak, threatening to cut off oil supplies. They refused, and as a form of protest against the Houthis, oil production in Shabwa, Yemen’s most strategic oil province and home to Mubarak, was halted.  Shabwa’s governor, Ahmed Ali Bahaj, ordered all oil companies in the province to halt production before sunset, stopping three oil fields which produce about 50,000 barrels per day. The governor also ordered the closure of all government institutions in the province. In solidarity, Hadramout Tribal Federation sent a memo to the local oil production companies to stop operating in line with the escalating events in the country. Crude production from Yemen’s Masila oilfields in Hadramout province has also stopped. Yemen’s only gas terminal at Balhaf in Shabwa in the Gulf of Aden also halted operations after foreign experts were evacuated from the liquefied natural gas export facility late on Sunday. Total is the biggest investor in Yemen’s gas export industry through its 40% shareholding in Yemen LNG, where its partners are US-based Hunt Oil on 17%, state-run Yemen Gas Co on 17% and Korea Gas Corp (Kogas) on 6%.

Citing security concerns, the local security committee of the city of Aden ordered the airport, sea port and all land crossings closed.

During the clashes that followed Mubarak’s abduction, the Houthis also took control of Yemen’s state news and TV agencies. In a televised address on 20 January, Abdul Malik al-Houthi said that Hadi and those around him failed to implement political deals that could usher in a new era in Yemen. The Houthi leader said, “We … will not hesitate to impose any necessary measures to implement the peace and partnership agreement.” He added, “All the options are open and without exception and the ceiling is very, very high. And this is why, I here advise the president … Implement this deal. It is for your benefit and for the benefit of your people.”

The rebels also seized control of a military aviation college, and massive weapons depot belonging to the government brigade that provides presidential personal security. The depot contains 280 T-80 Russian-made tanks and other heavy artillery. Most of the security forces reportedly fled after a light clash with fighters.

Despite a tentative cease-fire that was put in place on 20 January, by the next day, the rebels stormed the presidential palace complex and shelled the private home of President Hadi. Early on 21 January, Houthi fighters replaced the guards at the president’s residence. “President Hadi is still in his home. There is no problem, he can leave,” said Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi politburo. Hadi was contacted by US officials and assured them he is “fine.” A Yemeni official said the President does not consider himself a captive, adding that the Houthis were assisting Hadi’s security detail in their protection mission because part of the detail had run away because of the fighting.

The Houthis agreed to release Mubarak and withdraw their militias from key government institutions if officials agree to a re-write part of the country’s constitution. Under the terms of the agreement, the government will accept changes in the draft of the new.                 Several of the constitutional changes sought by the Houthis would emphasize the characteristics of Yemen as a federal state and push for more inclusion of diverse groups. The Houthis have called for marginalized political groups to have the right to fair representation and partnerships in state institutions. If agreed, the rebels will withdraw their fighters from the capital, where they have held control of the city since September, and would cooperate with the government so that the President and state institutions can return to their duties. A Houthi official said the rebels will abide by the deal if the President follows a timeline specified in the negotiations.

A member of the Houthi political council said, “This deal draws the road map for the political process going forward with the participation of all factions in Yemen. In the past, timelines were not respected, who hope this time will be different.”

While the actions of the Houthis had the appearance of a coup, they stopped short of removing President Hadi. Yemen’s current leader is an ally to the West and to key Sunni majority nations. A government source said: “They know that if they bring about the downfall of the president, they won’t be able to rule the country, because Western and neighbouring countries will gang on up on them, as well as other provinces that are not under their control.”

At the time of this posting, air and sea ports have restored operations in Aden, butthere is no indication that oil has been restarted; it is unclear whether Mubarak has been returned to Sana’a.

The Houthis: Background Information

While the majority of Yemen is Sunni, the Houthis stem from a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism (Zaydism). Zaidis comprise approximately a third of Yemen’s population, and ruled north Yemen for nearly a millennia until 1962, when a coup d’état carried out by Abdullah as-Sallal, successfully dethroned Imam Muhammad al-Badr, who was the newly crowned king of Yemen. Sallal and declared Yemen a republic and became its first president.

North and South Yemen unified in 1990 under its first president, Ali Abdullah Saleh. Fearing a threat to their religious and cultural traditions, a portion of the Zaidis formed a rebel group known as Ansar Allah (Partisans of God). The group were led by Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi, a former member of the Yemeni parliament for the Al-Haqq Islamic party between 1993 and 1997. The rebels sought to win greater autonomy for the Saada province. Houthi led the first uprising in June of 2004, but was found and killed by Yemeni security forces in September of that year.  After Hussein’s passing, his family took up the mantle, and the Houthis took on the name of their leader. The Houthis conducted five further rebellions until a ceasefire agreement was signed with the Yemeni government in 2010. During the 2011 Arab Spring, the Houthis joined the protests against President Ali Abdullah Saleh. When Saleh stepped down in 2012, the Houthis quickly used the power vacuum to expand control over the Saadi province, and neighbouring Amran province.

According to the Houthis, the people of Yemen are dissatisfied with their transitional government, led by President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi. They believe that it is dominated by members of the old regime and unlikely to result in positive changes for the poor nation. In August 2014, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi demanded that President Hadi reverse a decision to remove subsidies that had hit the country’s poor and that he replace the “corrupt” government with one that better represented Yemen’s various factions. A growing number Houthi supporters, including both Shia and Sunnis, protested for weeks, holding sit-ins at government buildings and blocking main roads. On 2 September, Hadi agreed to dismiss his government and cut fuel prices by 30 percent. The Houthis found it insufficient.

A week later, security forces opened fire on Houthi supporters in Sanaa, killing several people. Clashes escalated in Sana’a and by mid-September, battles left more than 300 dead within a month. The rebels occupied government buildings and seized the headquarters of a military division loyal to Brig Gen Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, a Sunni Islamist who led the fight against the Houthis between 2004 and 2010. Amidst a rising death toll, a peace deal was reached with the Houthis on 20 September. The Houthis would withdraw from the capital if fuel subsidies were restored, a technocratic government was put in place, including an appointment of presidential advisers representing the Houthis and the secessionist Hiraak al-Janoubi (Southern Movement); and the implementation of policies agreed at the National Dialogue Conferences in February. The Houthis, however, refused an agreement to withdraw from Sana’a and northern cities and surrender their weapons to authorities within 45 days. As a result, the Houthis still control large parts of the capital, demanding oversight of ministries and calling for an end to what they call a corrupt political system. The Houthis have also expanded into central and western parts of Yemen, triggering clashes with extremist militant group al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Critics say the Houthis are a proxy for Shia dominated Iran, which the rebels and Iran deny. Former president Saleh has been accused by the US of backing the Houthis’ takeover of Sanaa “to not only delegitimize the central government, but also create enough instability to stage a coup”. In November, the UN Security Council imposed sanctions on him and two senior Houthi leaders. The UN said the leaders were threatening Yemen’s peace and stability and obstructing the political process.

Protests Enter Third Day in DRC as President Attempts to Extend his Power

Gunshots were heard Wednesday in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s capital city, Kinshasa, as police cracked down on a new student demonstration at the city’s main university, following two days of bloody violence that has been sparked by attempts by President Joseph Kabila to extend his term in office beyond the 2016 presidential elections.

Protests erupted on Monday and have continued over the past days, with many heading to the streets, protesting against the government’s attempts to extend President Kabila’s term. On Wednesday, security forces sealed off the government-run University of Kinshasa, which has been the focal point of protests over the past three days. The protests also prompted the Roman Catholic Church to close its schools in the capital city on Wednesday, with Cardinal Pasinya announcing that they will remain closed until Monday. According to government spokesman Lambert Mende, eleven people, including a policeman, have been killed in the protests, with twenty-two others wounded. The opposition however has disputed these figures. Opposition leader Vital Kamerhe has indicated that at least twenty-eight protesters have been killed – twenty on Monday and eight on Tuesday. Protests in Kinshasa, which has a population of more than 9 million and which is seen as an opposition stronghold, are likely to continue over the coming days.

The protests coincided with a debate in the Senate, the upper parliamentary chamber, over government plans to hold a census before the elections. On Saturday, the lower chamber, the House of Representatives, approved the plan in a vote that was boycotted by the opposition MP’s. Most senators, including members of the governing party, have indicated that they are opposed to the plan as it risks destabilizing the country. The opposition has indicated that the move amounts to a “constitutional coup” by the president as it will take years for a census to be conducted in a country that has little infrastructure and which continues to be plagued by instability in the eastern region.

Opposition parties believe that the real aim of the new measures is to keep President Kabila in power after his mandate, which is set to expire in 2016. The president, who has won two disputed elections, is constitutionally barred from running for a third term. Sources have reported that the president’s regime is now seeking to make the staging of the presidential and parliamentary elections, which must be held by the end of 2016, contingent on the outcome of a census that is planned to start this year across the vast central African country. While the government had earlier indicated that it can complete the work within a year, this week, officials admitted that the election could be delayed and take place in 2017, however they have maintained that the census is vital to ensure that the polls are free and fair.

Both the opposition parties and regional analysts have indicated that the census would likely postpone the polls by at least two years and would effectively keep President Kabila in office for more than fifteen years. Officials have estimated that it would take up to three years to undertake a reliable census in a country that is still gripped by serious unrest in the east. The mineral-rich DRC has some 65 million people in a country that has little infrastructure and where difficult communications make any census highly difficult. The situation in the DRC is being closely followed after a move by Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Compaore late last year to extend his own time in office led to mass rallies that swiftly forced him to flee.

Kidnappings in CAR Possibly Linked to Recent Arrest of Vigilante Leader

Armed men kidnapped a female United Nations employee in the capital city on Tuesday, just one day after two aid workers were seized.

According to a source within the UN’s MINUSCA force in the Central African Republic (CAR), gunmen on Tuesday seized a female UN employee from a van that was taking UN staffers to work in Bangui. A statement released by the UN MINUSCA force has since confirmed the kidnapping, stating “unidentified armed men kidnapped on Tuesday a woman who works for MINUSCA after having stopped the vehicle in which she was travelling. A similar kidnap attempt failed just a bit earlier.” Tuesday’s kidnapping reportedly involves gunmen who appear to be linked to the mainly Christian anti-balaka militia. The abduction comes a day after a French charity worker and a man were seized in an area of the capital city that is controlled by anti-balaka fighters. Both kidnappings appear to be linked to the recent arrest of a vigilante leader.

On Monday, two people, including a 67-year-old French woman working for a Catholic medical charity, were kidnapped in the CAR. It is believed that the second hostage is a local man connected with the charity.

According to on the ground sources, a vehicle carrying the two was stopped by armed men in the capital city Bangui, with the militants later driving off with the hostages. According to the driver of the vehicle, Brother Elkana Ndawatcha, “the three of us were coming from Damara (north of Bangui)…when we were stopped by a group of four anti-balaka (militiamen) armed with Kalashnikovs in the middle of the city…They let me go after they robbed me of my mobile telephone, my bank documents and my money,” adding “one of them took my place at the wheel and took my colleagues deeper into Boy-Rabe district,” referring to one of the militia’s strongholds in the northeastern region of Bangui. Sources have revealed that the kidnappers, who are from the mainly Christian anti-balaka militia, were angry over the recent arrest of one of their leaders.

The CAR national secretary of Catholic Charity Caritas, Abby Elysee Guendjiande, confirmed the kidnapping, stating “when we called…(the French woman’s) telephone later the kidnappers picked up and said: ‘Release our General Andjilo and we will liberate the hostages.” The French government has condemned the kidnapping and has called for the unidentified woman to be freed immediately. The French embassy in Bangui is in contact with the city’s archbishop, who has been holding talks with the kidnappers.

Both kidnappings come just days after the CAR’s senior prosecutor announced that UN peacekeepers had arrested a senior leader, Rodrigue Nagibona, also known as General Andjilo, of the anti-balaka militia.

Prosecutors in the CAR disclosed Sunday that a power vigilante leader, accused of masterminding a massacre of some 300 minority Muslims in December 2013, has been arrested. According to prosecutors, UN Peacekeepers arrested General Andjilo, who had been on the run for several months, on Saturday in the north-western region of the country. A judicial source disclosed Sunday that a Cameroonian contingent of the UN force, MINUSCA, arrested Andjilo in the town of Bouca after a fire fight with “his men.” Maurice Dibert-Dollet, Bangui’s general prosecutor, confirmed the arrest, stating, “General Andjilo is wanted for multiple alleged crimes including killings, rebellion, illegal possession of weapons of war, criminal association, rape and pillage.” General Andjilo is associated with an attack on a MINUSCA convoy in October 2014 that left one Pakistani soldier dead.

Hostages Freed After Being Kidnapped by Boko Haram in Cameroon

Reports surfaced Monday that at least twenty of up to eight people, who were taken hostage by Boko Haram militants in Cameroon over the past weekend, have been freed.

Cameroon’s defence ministry disclosed Monday that the hostages were freed “as defence forces pursued the attackers who were heading back to Nigeria.” Many of those kidnapped in the cross-border raid are said to be children. It is one of the largest abductions by Boko Haram to take place outside Nigeria and it has raised fears that the militant group is expanding its operations into neighbouring countries. It is also the first major attack on Cameroon since Boko Haram’s leader, Abubakar Shekau, threatened President Paul Biya in a video posted online earlier this month.

The abductions took place in the villages of Maki and Mada, near the city of Mokolo, in Cameroon’s Far North region. According to Cameroonian police and local officials, the militants arrived during the early morning hours on Sunday, with on the ground sources reporting that many of those abducted were women and children. Prior to leaving the area, the attackers burned dozens of homes. It remains unclear exactly how the hostages became detached from the main group as Cameroonian authorities have not released details pertaining to the military operation, nor has there been any word from those freed or from the militants.

Boko Haram has seized control of towns and villages in northeastern Nigeria and has begun threatening neighbouring countries. It is believed that the militant group is now in control of areas in northeastern Nigeria that border Cameroon, Chad and Niger. This has prompted fears that militants will not only be able to easily stage attacks within Nigeria, but will also be able to carry out cross-border attacks into Nigeria’s neighbours.

Fears of Boko Haram expanding its operations have resulted in Chad recently deploying soldiers to help Cameroon tackle the militant group. On Friday, Ghana’s President John Mahama disclosed that African leaders would discuss plans this week to “deal permanently” with Boko Haram, suggesting that a multinational force may be considered. Those options follow months of criticism by Niger and Cameroon, who have maintained that Nigerian officials have failed to do more in order to stop Boko Haram’s attacks. Many believe that despite Boko Haram increasing its tempo of attacks, Nigerian politicians are now more focused on campaigning, ahead of next month’s presidential elections, then focusing on the security issues.

Pakistan’s Possible Links to Terrorist Organizations

Since the launch of Operation Zarb-e-Azb on June 15, 2014, Pakistan’s efforts to combat militant groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have somewhat revived Washington’s flagging confidence in Islamabad and have led to greater levels of cooperation between the two countries. However, a statement made on January 13, 2015 by U.S Secretary of State John Kerry at a press conference in Islamabad suggests that America still believes Pakistan is playing a “double game”; that it is continuing to use terrorist groups to advance its own foreign policy interests. After being questioned by a reporter about Pakistan’s willingness to target groups like the Haqqani Network, the Afghan Taliban and Lashkar-e Tayyiba Secretary Kerry said: “we’ve been very clear with the highest levels of the Government of Pakistan that Pakistan has to target all militant groups, the Haqqani Network and others…And Pakistan has made it very clear that they intend to do so.” While it is as yet too early to say whether or not Pakistan will remain committed to the war on terror, one thing is clear: Pakistan’s strategic interests in Afghanistan and India will be difficult to promote if they are forced to sever ties with all the militant groups currently residing within their borders.

Ample evidence of Pakistan’s dealings with terrorist groups has emerged over the past decade. In 2006, a leaked British Defence Ministry Report claimed that “Indirectly Pakistan (through the [Inter-Services Agency]) has been supporting terrorism and extremism.” In a 2009 interview, U.S Defence Secretary Robert Gates accused Pakistan of “playing both sides”, claiming that they use groups like the Taliban to ensure that they will have leverage in Afghanistan once the U.S leaves. This explains why Pakistan has not received certification from the State Department for having met the requirements of the Kerry-Lugar Bill (in which authorisation for appropriation of funds requires, amongst other things, evidence of a “sustained commitment…towards combatting terrorist groups”) since 2011. Progress has been made, State Department officials claim, but not enough.

As far as Islamabad is concerned, to the extent that terrorist groups have helped advance Pakistan’s goals, they have served a useful purpose. But the cost of entering into a Faustian pact with them has been immense. It has resulted in the emergence of factions and splinter groups who attack Pakistanis and push Islamabad into conflicts which have the potential to undermine their security at home and their strategic interests abroad.

Two incidents in particular are responsible for the vigour with which the Pakistani army is currently waging war against militant groups. The first occurred on June 8, 2014, when ten members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, a TTP affiliate, launched an attack on Jinnah International Airport in Karachi, killing twenty six people and wounding eighteen. In the days following this attack, the Pakistani military launched a series of attacks which culminated in Operation Zarb-e-Azb, a comprehensive military offensive which is being waged against militant groups in North Waziristan. So far, the campaign has brought about the deaths of more than 1,100 militants and dramatically reduced the operational capabilities of groups fighting in the area. It has also demonstrated an increased willingness on Islamabad’s part to hunt down groups which it is alleged to have supported. When Pakistan’s army chief Raheel Sharif visited Washington in November 2014, he was praised by the Pentagon for having targeted the Haqqani Network, which both the U.S and Afghan governments have accused Pakistan of protecting in the past.

The second incident took place on December 16, 2014, when nine members of the TTP entered a school in Peshawar and killed 145 people, 132 of whom were children. It was, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said, a “decisive moment”, and one in which should cause Pakistanis to unite against a common enemy. In the days following the attack Pakistan’s military, intelligence and police forces launched successive punitive strikes against militants, resulting in numerous deaths including TTP commander Abid Muchar. It is significant that after the attack, Pakistan’s Prime Minister said that there would no longer be any distinction drawn between “good Taliban and bad Taliban”; a tacit acknowledgement of the patronage which Pakistan had formerly bestowed upon terrorist groups.

After the massacre in Peshawar, there was an outpouring of grief across the country. The Pakistan People’s Party and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement announced a three day period of mourning, while the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam declared that scheduled protests would be postponed, out of respect for the deceased and their families. In Islamabad, protestors gathered outside the Red Mosque when a hard-line Islamic cleric Maulana Abdul Aziz refused to condemn the attack. For now, it seems as though Pakistan has been united against terror. Whether or not this state continues will, as Secretary Kerry said, be determined by the actions by the government “over the coming weeks.” But in order to ensure that Pakistan remains committed to the fight against terror two things must happen: first, its security services must stop using terrorist groups as proxies and second, its leadership must rethink its ambitions in Afghanistan and India. Until then, the situation in Pakistan and its relationship with the United States seems unlikely to change.