MS Risk Blog

ISIS Declares Caliphate across Iraq and Syria

On 30 June, the militant group Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS, a.k.a ISIL) declared a caliphate which spans from Aleppo in northwestern Syria to Diyala province in eastern Iraq. The group has also modified its name to “Islamic State” and has declared their leader, Abu Bakar al Baghdadi as its caliph. Baghdadi is now referred to as “khalīfah Ibrahim.”

Islamic State released a ten page announcement in Arabic, English, German, French, and Russian which defends the formation of a caliphate. The announcement declares that “the Islamic State has no [legal] constraint or excuse that can justify delaying or neglecting the establishment of the khilāfah (caliphate) such that it would not be sinful.” The statement explains that Baghdadi was chosen as caliph because he claims that he is a descendant of the prophet Muhammed (pbuh). Islamic State adds, “Thus, he is the imam and khalīfah for the Muslims everywhere” and have called on Muslims around the globe to pledge allegiance to him. Muslims around the world have expressed outrage as the declaration occurs during the beginning of the holy month of Ramadan.

ISIS also released two videos upon the announcement. Of note, the second video, “The End of Sykes-Picot,” shows a Chilean member of the Islamic State discussing the destruction of the border between Iraq and Syria. He speaks in English, and raises the flag of the Islamic State over the outpost.

SUSTAINABILITY:
Islamic State gained traction in June by taking control of large regions in northern Iraq and creating corridors into ISIS controlled parts of Syria. They were spurred on by the support of Sunni tribes in Iraq who were angry at their marginalization by the government, led by highly sectarian Shi’a leader, Nouri al Maliki. ISIS captured equipment and money in their blitzkrieg across the region, and even if the Iraqi government recaptures territory, it will be difficult to dislodge the spoils ISIS has gained, including its new fundraising networks and reputation, which now surpasses Al Qaeda in infamy. In fact, some analysts believe that AQ will experience a growing number of defections as militants move their allegiance to ISIS. Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), for example, has made supportive and congratulatory statements on social media. ISIS has also recently released a new map showing a five-year-plan to grow their caliphate. The map shows plans to expand across north and central Africa to the west, and beyond India and Indonesia in the East.

Despite the group’s arrogance and ambition, analysts do not believe that the Islamic state is likely to remain in place. The erstwhile coalitions that ISIS had with Sunni Muslims in Iraq has eroded as the militants have killed members of the tribes or made tribal leaders into subordinates rather than partners. The Islamic State is also battling Iraqi soldiers who are intent on regaining captured territory, with heavy fighting occurring in Tikrit over the weekend. Russia has deployed military jets and experts to Iraq, and on Sunday evening, US President Barack Obama ordered additional deployments to Iraq, bringing the number of US troops in the region to 750, as well as sending “a detachment of helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles, which will bolster airfield and travel route security,” according to a statement. Iran has also agreed to send weaponry but will not send troops.

FAILED POLITICAL EFFORTS:

In an urgent effort to deal with the political marginalization that was the catalyst for the rapid growth of ISIS, Iraq’s new parliament convened on Tuesday morning, intent on creating a unity government to keep the country from splitting apart. However the first session ended early after 90 Sunni and Kurdish MPs walked out in protest during a 30-minute morning break. The speaker of the parliament declared, “We are going to postpone because of an urgent matter,” but he did reveal what the urgent matter was.

Iraqi president al-Maliki and his Shi’a-dominated government have been under pressure to be more inclusive of Iraq’s Sunni minority. US diplomats have stated that the US is unlikely to take military action against the Islamic State until a new unity government is created.

Meanwhile, fighting continues at an alarming rate. Violence in Iraq resulted in 2,417 deaths in June, according to the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq. In May, the number reached 799. Islamic State also appears to be targeting Shi’a shrines. On Monday, the group fired mortars at the Askari Shrine in Samarra as worshipers gathered to celebrate the first day of Ramadan. Six people were killed and minor damage was caused to the dome. Iraqi forces have been reinforced in the region to protect the site. The attack is likely to cause waves of retaliation, creating the sectarian war that ISIS had openly sought to create.

Week of Attacks in Nigeria Demonstrate Boko Haram’s Increasing Capabilities

Over the past week, Nigeria has seen nearly daily attacks throughout the entire country, including the third attack in Abuja in ten weeks. With Boko Haram militants suspected to be behind the latest deadly violence, many are warning that these latest attacks now demonstrate that the militant group is capable of carrying out attacks across the country at any time.

Third Attack in Abuja

On Wednesday 25 June, Nigeria’s national rescue agency reported that a loud explosion hit a crowded shopping center in the Wuse district of Nigeria’s capital Abuja, killing twenty-four people and wounding at least seventeen. A statement released by Manzo Ezekie, spokesman for the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) indicated “we received the information at about 4:00 PM (1500 GMT) about a blast” at the Emab Plaza, which is located not far from the seat of government. The statement further indicated that a “rescue operation has already commenced.” Nigerian authorities have arrested one suspect and that a second suspect was shot dead by troops as he attempted to escape on a motorbike. Although Boko Haram has not made any official confirmations pertaining to this attack, the militant group is suspected of carrying it out.

Although Boko Haram’s attacks have mostly targeted the northeastern regions of the country, over the past ten weeks, the militant group has attacked the capital twice. On 14 April more than seventy people were killed in a bomb blast at a bus stop on the outskirts of the capital city while the following month, a car bomb near a bus station in the suburbs killed at least nineteen people and injured sixty others.

Days after the bomb attack, Nigeria’s intelligence agency reported that over the past two weeks, it had been warning shopping complexes in Abuja that Islamic extremists may target them.

According to Marily Ogar, spokeswoman for the Department of State Security, Nigerian intelligence officials had received information that Boko Haram extremists were planning such an attack, adding “about two weeks ago we heard information that they were planning an attack at a busy shopping mall or market…and so we had to go from one shopping complex to another trying to tell people to be more aware.” Although the state department did not publish the intelligence reports on the threat to shopping malls, in an apparent attempt to avoid wide panic, last week the government warned that it had received information that Boko Haram was planning to hijack petrol tankers in the capital and to plant explosives inside.

Emab Plaza, where the attack occurred Wednesday, is the biggest and busiest shopping center in Abuja. The explosion occurred around rush hour as many residents were hurrying to view Nigeria’s football team play against Argentina at the World Cup in Brazil. While it remains unclear if the bomb was timed to coincide with that, Boko Haram has in the past bombed several football viewing venues, prompting two northeastern states to ban public events to watch the football tournament.

On the ground sources have reported that the increased security throughout the city may have prevented the attack from killing even more as witnesses reported that a security guard had stopped a car bomber from entering the mall just moments before the massive explosion on Wednesday.

Continued Attacks in Northern Nigeria

Days after an attack targeted a shopping center in Abuja, an explosion in the northern city of Bauchi has killed at least ten people and injured fourteen others.

Bauchi state police spokesman Mohammed Haruna confirmed Saturday that the targeted building in the Bayan Gari neighborhood, which is located on the outskirts of the city, was widely known as a brothel. He further indicated “ten people were confirmed dead, while 14 others sustained various degrees of injury,” adding that the explosion went off at roughly 10:00 PM (2100 GMT). Police officers have cordoned off the entire area and an investigation into the attack is ongoing.

Bomb attacks on targets, which Boko Haram has branded sinful, including churches, bars and schools teaching a Western curriculum, have formed a major part of the militant group’s insurgency. Nigerian officials estimate that more than 10,000 people have been killed since the conflict began in 2009. In recent months, the violence has escalated with more than 3,000 deaths recorded since the start of this year.

Suspected Boko Haram militants, armed with explosives, attacked a number of churches on Sunday near Chibok, the northeastern town where more than 200 teenage girls were kidnapped nearly three months ago.

Residents have indicated that gunmen riding on motorcycles opened fire on worshippers and pursued them as they tried to flee into the bush. The attackers also threw explosives into churches as services were on going and torched several buildings. Dozens of people are reported to have been killed in the raids on villages located roughly 10 kilometers (6 miles) outside Chibok, however no one has been able to provide an official death toll. The targeted villages have been identified as Kwada, Ngurojina, Karagau and Kautikari. All are located in Borno state, which is the stronghold of the Militant group. Another resident reported “the attackers went to churches with bombs and guns,” adding “from what I gathered, dozens of worshippers, including men, women and children were killed.” Several residents in the area also reported that the Nigerian military had not responded to distress calls, which were sent out shortly after the attack began. While these reports have not been verified, if confirmed, it will likely raise further questions about the military’s efforts in the northeastern region of Nigeria, which is the epicenter of the insurgency.

Last week’s incidents throughout the country have effectively cemented the fact that Boko Haram militants are now capable of carrying out attacks anywhere in Nigeria, sparking fears that the militant group is now seeking to expand its insurgency, moving further south towards Abuja. The attacks have also demonstrated the Nigerian government and military’s inability to coordinate received intelligence and thwart attacks.

Security Advisory: World Cup

Yesterday saw Europe vs Latin America and finished with one to each.  Both matches went down to the wire and things are looking promising for the remainder of the knockout stages.  Today is Europe vs Africa with both Algeria and Nigeria facing uphill battles against Germany and France respectively, both of whom are looking in good form.

The Brazilians have managed fan, spectator, and tourist security very well.  Funnily enough, fan security is more of a headline in home countries rather than in Brazil. France and Colombia have both voiced the need for enhanced security, domestically, during games.  In Brazil, reporting continues to indicate a positive security presence in the host cities and reports show that anti-world cup protests appear to have died off.

Today’s matches are in Porto Alegre (14C, 94% Humidity, rain all day) and Brasilia (29C, 77%H, clear). The game in Porto Alegre is the late game so hopefully it clears up otherwise it’s going to be cold and damp affair.  Despite the heavy weather, there haven’t been any transport concerns in Porto Alegre as we saw in Natal and Recife.

Security Advisory: World Cup

Brazil scraped through by the skin of their teeth… without biting!  From a fan security point of view, this is probably a positive outcome as the longer Brazil stays in the less likely they are to start trouble protesting. I’d rather see the population glued to the screen than getting into fights on the street with visiting fans who goad them on if or when they lose.

Today’s games are in Fortaleza (31C, clear) and Recife (28C, drizzle and could get heavier).  Heavy weather in Recife has proven a problem prior to recent matches when a 40min trip to the stadium has taken 4hrs.   Neither city has seen any serious problems with fan security at games or at fan fests.

Security Update: Fifa World Cup

The first day of the elimination rounds and it’s an all South-American affair for today.  With enthusiasm and fanaticism reaching new levels, expect to see an increased security presence to ensure fan safety, prevent overcrowding and stop crowds forcing entry into the stadium.

This evening’s matches are in Rio (30C, 94% Humidity, clear) and Belo Horizonte (26C, 77%H, clear), Brazil’s 2^nd and 3^rd largest cities respectively.  Both cities are known for violence in the less affluent neighbourhoods and have both seen large protests against the World Cup Finals. Noting this, both cities have hosted four matches each without major incidents.  Occasional reporting of pickpockets and muggings continue but these are most often reported by tourists who stray from the ‘beaten path’ and find themselves isolated, away from the security of others, and without escape route.  Don’t keep all your eggs in one basket; ensure you have some money to hand over in the instance of being mugged as well as money elsewhere to draw upon in emergency.  Know where you are staying and have it written down so you can show a cab driver. If you have a mobile with maps, download the maps before leaving, using wifi, and follow along the route so you know you’re not being ripped off (you can your data stream off and this will still work).