MS Risk Blog

Somali Government Launches New Disarmament Campaign

Posted on in Somalia title_rule

A new disarmament campaign, launched by the Somali government earlier this week, has already netted some 500 guns and has caused heaving fighting to break out in the capital city. On Friday, heavy fighting broke out in Mogadishu as Somali government troops and African Union (AU) forces launched a pre-dawn raid on a house belonging to a former warlord. According to police officer Capt. Mohammed Hussein, seven people were killed in the violence, including four civilians, two militia members and one soldier. Eight people were also wounded.

During the early morning hours on Friday, government troops, backed by the AU mission in Somalia (AMISOM) attempted to seize weapons from militia leader Ahmed Dai before the fighting erupted. A statement released by AMISOM indicated that the mission’s troops took part in a pre-dawn raid on Mr. Dai’s home in a “search operation…following a tip-off that there was an arms cache,” adding that the “militia was overpowered and 20 were arrested.” Mr. Dai, who was not arrested, confirmed that AMISOM forces had carried out a raid on his house noting however that if AMISOM is “…claiming the operation is aimed for disarmament, then I have got not weapons, except a few for self-defense purposes.” Mr. Dai’s home is based in the capital’s Madina district, a neighborhood located close to the heavily defended airport zone, which is also the headquarters of the 22,000-strong AU force.

Government security official Mohamed Yusuf confirmed the fighting, disclosing that militiamen confronted government forces and African troops as they were carrying out security operations in the capital city this morning. Eyewitnesses reported bursts of gunfire and heavy explosions before dawn, with some reports indicating that both sides fired rocket-propelled grenades. The fighting calmed by mid-morning.

Earlier this week, the Somali government launched a disarmament campaign aimed at attempting to reduce the number of weapons and bringing greater security to the capital city, which has seen a number of deadly attacks in recent months. After more than two decades of conflict, Somalia has become awash with guns, resulting in several politicians and local leaders commanding what are effectively private armies. While such forces are not connected to al-Shabaab, who is fighting to topple the internationally backed government, they nevertheless pose a significant threat to Somalia’s fragile security situation. Furthermore, while government officials fear that these weapons may fall into the hands of al-Qaeda-linked fighters, some Somalis believe that the latest campaign is aimed at disarming rivals of the country’s leadership as the country prepares itself for the proposed 2016 national elections.

Government officials disclosed Friday that during the first four days of security operations, some 500 guns were recovered.

Nigeria Fears Ebola Spread Outside of Lagos

Posted on in Kenya, Nigeria title_rule

Health officials in Nigeria disclosed Wednesday that a nurse, who contracted Ebola at a Lagos hospital, travelled to the eastern part of the country before falling ill, raising fears that the deadly outbreak may now spread outside of the southern city.

Health Minister Onyebuchi Chukwu has confirmed that the nurse had tested positive for Ebola, adding that the she had “disobeyed medical instructions,” that were given to hospital staff, by travelling to Enugu, which is a major city located in the eastern region of Nigeria. Sources have disclosed that the nurse was infected with the tropical disease while caring for Patrick Sawyer, the Liberian government employee who brought Ebola to Lagos on July 20. He died five days later while under quarantine at the First Consultants hospital in Lagos. After contracting the virus in Lagos, the nurse travelled with her husband to Enugu, where she fell six and was admitted to hospital. Medical staff in Enugu later transported her back to the special isolation unit in Lagos, where she is currently being treated.

While so far there have been no confirmations that she infected anyone in the eastern city, Information Minister Labaran Maku has disclosed that “21 persons in Enugu are being watched,” including the nurse’s husband, who has not displayed any symptoms. Nigeria has recorded 10 Ebola cases, including three deaths. While all the cases are currently in Lagos, a spread of the deadly virus across the country will place immense strain on the already weak healthcare system.

Kenya Classified as High-Risk for Spread of Ebola

Officials at the World Health Organization (WHO) have classified Kenya as a “high-risk” country for the spread of the deadly Ebola virus. To date, this is the most serious warning issued by the WHO that the deadly Ebola virus could spread to East Africa.

A statement released by the WHO’s country director for Kenya, Custodia Mandihate, indicated that the East African country was “classified in group two; at a high risk of transmission,” adding that Kenya was vulnerable as it was a major transport hub, with many flights coming from West Africa. In recent weeks, a number of measures have been set up in Kenya in a bid to prevent the deadly virus from spreading to the country. These include health checks at the main airport in the capital Nairobi. Despite receiving more than seventy flights per week from West Africa, the Kenyan government however has disclosed that they will not ban flights from the four countries that have been affected by the latest outbreak.

In the latest data released by the WHO on Wednesday, the number of people killed by Ebola in West Africa has risen to 1,069 with 1,975 suspected cases reported. Over a period of two days, there were fifty-six new deaths and 128 new cases reported in Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone.

Spread of Ebola Continues as WHO Agrees to the Use of Untested Drugs

Posted on in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, West Africa title_rule

On Tuesday, a World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of medical experts ruled that it is ethical to offer untested drugs or vaccines to those people either infected or at risk due to the current Ebola outbreak. The panel however has cautioned West African officials that supplies will be limited.

WHO Approves Untested Drugs

A statement released by the WHO indicated that the panel has disclosed that any provision of experimental Ebola medicines would require “informed consent, freedom of choice, confidentiality, respect for the person, preservation of dignity and involvement of the community,” adding that the drugs should be properly tested in the best possible clinical trials. The ethics panel met last week in order to discuss whether various experimental drugs and vaccines being developed to fight Ebola may be used in the current outbreak despite not having been fully tested or licensed. The meeting was called after the experimental Ebola drug ZMapp, which is produced by US biotech company Mapp Biopharmaceuticals, was given to two American health workers who were infected with Ebola while working in Liberia.

On Wednesday, Canadian officials disclosed that between 800 and 1,000 doses of an experimental Ebola vaccine, which has so far only been tested on animals, will be donated to the WHO for use in West Africa. Canada however will keep a small portion of the vaccine for further research and in the event that an Ebola case appears in the country.

However while Canada has announced that it will send doses of the experimental vaccine to the WHO, experts are warning that it will likely take between four and six months in order to make a large enough quantity to have any real impact at preventing the illness. Officials at the WHO have disclosed that so-called “first in man” trials, which are the first tests of the drug to be carried out on humans, will likely be conducted over the next two to four months. However even if the trials of the drug prove to be successful, supplies of it will remain limited, noting “it is…likely that the number of doses available for further study and/or deployment from end 2014 onwards will remain insufficient to meet demand.”

New WHO Figures Released

New data released by the WHO on Monday indicated that the death toll in the Ebola outbreak in West Africa has now passed 1,000, and that the outbreak does not appears to be slowing down. In a press release Monday, the United Nations health agency confirmed that 1,013 people have died in the outbreak with authorities recording 1,848 suspected, probable or confirmed cases of the disease. The updated WHO figures are from August 7 – 9, when 52 people died and 69 more were infected. During this period, Guinea reported six additional deaths and 11 new infections; Liberia had 29 more deaths and 45 cases while Sierra Leone saw 17 new fatalities and 13 new cases.

In total, Guinea has reported 506 cases, with 373 deaths; Liberia has 599 cases, with 323 deaths; Sierra Leone has reported 730 cases and 315 deaths while Nigeria has thirteen cases and two deaths.

Iraqi Parliament Selects New Prime Minister

Posted on in Iran, Iraq title_rule

On 11 August, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was effectively deposed. Early in the day, the Iraqi National Alliance, a coalition of mostly Shi’a political parties, nominated deputy parliament speaker Dr. Hadier al-Abadi to become the new Prime minister. Shortly after newly elected President Fouad Massoum asked officially gave al-Abdadi his first responsibility as prime minister: to form a new government within the next 30 days. Nouri al-Maliki has declared that he will fight the decision, stating that Abadi’s nomination has no legitimacy. He called the move “dangerous violation” of the constitution, and vowed to “fix this mistake.” Under the Iraqi constitution, the president must appoint the chosen nominee of the largest parliamentary bloc. Al-Abadi comes from the same political party as Maliki. Immediately prior to the decision, Maliki had ordered his elite army units into the streets of Baghdad in a show of force. However, a senior government official said commanders of military forces that Maliki deployed around Baghdad had pledged loyalty to President Fouad Masoum, and agreed to to respect his decision to ask Abadi to form a new government. On 12 August, a statement appeared on Maliki’s official website ordering security forces not intervene in the conflict over who will be the next prime minister. Rather, they should remain focused on defending the country. Maliki has been widely derided for implementing pro-Shi’a sectarian regulations that have widely disenfranchised and alienated Sunni Muslims in Iraq during his eight-year tenure. It is believed that his sectarian policies spurred the actions of ISIS, the terrorist organisation that has taken over vast swaths of Iraqi land and Syria in recent months. Despite Maliki’s claims that the ouster was illegitimate, Iraqi media channels have already widely welcomed al-Abdadi, with some pro-Sunni stations criticising his refusal to step-down for the sake of the nation. Beyond Iraq, the appointment of al-Abadi has been met with welcome by many among the international community. Jordanian media has issued congratulations to the new Prime Minister. EU foreign policy Chief Catherine Ashton called Abadi’s appointment a “positive step”. US Secretary of State John Kerry stated that Washington is prepared to “fully support a new and inclusive Iraqi government”, urging Abadi to quickly form a fully functional cabinet: “We are prepared to consider additional political, economic and security options as Iraq’s government starts to build a new government.” In Iran, a nation that was once considered an ally by al-Maliki, the decision to remove him from office has been regarded as a positive one. Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, has offered his congratulations to al-Abadi and the Iraqi people. Shamkhani is a close ally of Iranian President Rouhani, and a representative of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Iranian recognition of Abadi appears to eliminate Maliki’s main avenue of support of regaining power. Iran perceives ISIS as a threat to their national security. The Iranian government believes that in order to quell the spread of the terror group, Iraq must have a unity government, which Maliki has openly opposed. Abadi, a British-educated electrical engineer in his mid 60s, also served as an intermediary between diplomats and Western journalists in Iraq. He was exiled to England during the reign of Saddam Hussein when the Dawa party which he represented was banned from the country. He is perceived as a considerably more moderate and unifying figure than his predecessor. In order to prove his ability to form a unity government, he must reintroduce Sunni and Kurdish officials into senior positions in the Iraqi government and military. Under Maliki’s regime, all senior positions were held by Shi’a officials. He has little time to not only implement a unity government, but to also raise morale in the nation, as Sunni Muslims and other denominations will want to see immediate change, and the Kurds are pushing ever harder for an autonomous state. As one writer put it, the threat to Iraq is “existential, not political.”

CAR Appoints New Prime Minister as Clashes Continue

Posted on in Central Africa Republic title_rule

On Sunday, just days after the Central African Republic’s interim government resigned, the country’s president, Catherine Samba Panza, named her new prime minister. The mainly Muslim rebel Seleka group however has rejected the appointment of the CAR’s first Muslim prime minister, stating that it wants no part of the new government.

Mahamat Kamoun was appointed prime minister Sunday evening, effectively replacing Andre Nzapayeke, who stepped down last week. Mr. Kamoun, an expert in finance, was the director general of the treasury under former president Francois Bozize. He later became a special advisor to the current interim president. While he has now been tasked with leading a transitional government that is seeking to implement a precarious ceasefire signed late last month, officials within the Seleka rebel group have rejected the decision, stating Monday that while Mr Kamoun had served as head of the tax-collecting agency, he was not a Seleka member. Abou Mal Mal Hissene, a Seleka spokesman, disclosed Monday that the group’s leaders “…think the transitional president didn’t take account of the views of the Seleka, which still controls the majority part of the country,” adding “the Seleka will not participate in the government.” The spokesman also reported that the fragmented collation of former rebels had learned of the appointment of a new prime minister “by way of foreign media.” Despite refusing to join the new government, the spokesman did note that the Seleka leaders remain committed to the peace accord, which was signed in Brazzaville last month.

On Tuesday, President Samba Panza confirmed that the government had resigned as part of a peace deal that was reached last month with the Christian and Muslim rebel factions. The resignation of the interim government, which includes Prime Minister Andre Nzapayeke along with twenty other ministers, will make way for a new one that is more inclusive.

Mr. Kamoun, who is the first Muslim to serve as prime minister in the CAR since the country gained its independence from France in 1960, will now face the difficult task of revitalising a delicate political transition that is aimed at ending deadly sectarian violence and disarming militias. Despite the appointment and the promise of a more inclusive government, many hurdles remain on the CAR’s path to peace. The inclusion of armed groups within the future government remains to be a sensitive topic in on-going discussions. There are however signs that Mr Kamoun’s appointment may aid in reducing tensions.

While Seleka rebels continue to clash with anti-balaka forces, the Seleka coalition itself is weak and fragmented as its members are divided between those who support dialogue and those who refuse to make any concessions and instead call for a partition of the country. This appointment may ease the tensions between the government and former Seleka coalition members, and will likely undercut support for those pushing for a partition. Furthermore, Mr Kamoun’s appointment is likely to reassure the Muslim minority community, many of whom have been treated with suspicion by the country’s Christian population following the Seleka takeover in March 2013. While the interim president’s promises of a more inclusive government appear to be coming true, this has yet had an impact on the current situation throughout the country as tensions on the ground have not eased and the ceasefire signed in Brazzaville remains extremely fragile.

After weeks of relative calm in the capital Bangui, clashes erupted on Friday and Saturday between two rival factions of the anti-balaka militia. International peacekeepers deployed throughout the CAR were forced to intervene. The latest confrontations, which occurred in the Boy-Rabe neighbourhood in northern Bangui, came just two days after dozens of Seleka fighters attacked French peacekeepers who were patrolling the northern town of Batangafo. Two French troops were injured in the clashes.