MS Risk Blog

Wow!
The battle of the Goliaths turned out to be David vs Goliath where David forgot his slingshot… What a slaughter! And the worry surrounding the potential violence in the event of a Brazilian loss seems to have been well founded. The three biggest cities in Brazil (Rio, Sao Paulo, Belo Horizonte) all saw widespread security issues involving criminals, fans, and tourists. There were several reports of mass robberies where gunmen turned up a bars and robbed a number of people, this was also reported to have happened at the Fan Fest on the beach on Copacabana however some reports remain uncorroborated. There were reports of Brazilian fans fighting Germans as well as other Brazilians.
Tonight’s semi-final match in Sao Paulo (19C, 68% Humidity, slight chance of rain) will certainly see an enhanced security presence in the wake of yesterday’s violence. Hopefully, most of the violent criminals are too hungover from yesterday’s disaster to start trouble tonight but it should be anticipated nonetheless. Argentina, Brazil’s biggest rival, is playing tonight and their fans have a history of belligerence including during this tournament when they jumped a fence to get into the Maracana. If Argentina win or lose, be aware of the potential for violent confrontation between the Argentine supporters and Brazilians.
Leave plenty of time to negotiate getting to the match and through security and leave valuables back at the hotel. Have some spare cash stashed away somewhere on you so if you do get robbed, you have some means of getting home. This advice applies to those going to the game or just watching at a bar or Fan Fest. Importantly, leave at the first sign of trouble. Don’t wait around for things to degrade and then try to leave when it’s too late.
Enjoy the match. It is fixing to be another stunner. Let’s see if anyone will score 4 goals in 6 minutes…

Al-Shabaab Carryout Daring Attack in Mogadishu

Late on Tuesday, al-Shabaab militants continued their assault on the capital city by launching a major bomb attack and armed assault on Somalia’s presidential palace. The latest incident has resulted in the firing of Somalia’s intelligence and police chiefs as the militant group has successfully carried out a number of deadly attacks over the Ramadan period, with warnings that attacks will continue.

The raid began with a suicide bomber detonating a car at a barrier near the entrance to the compound, with militants later attacking the presidential palace from two directions. The attack continued for hours as the militants penetrated the heavily fortified complex and fought with security guards inside. On the ground sources have indicated that Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed were not at the presidential palace at the time of the attack and are both safe.

Local police officer Ali Hussein has confirmed the attack, stating “there was an attack on the presidential palace, with gunmen attacking a checkpoint at the rear of the compound,” adding “there was a major explosion and security forces are fighting them.” It took security officials several hours to control the situation, with sources indicating that at least nine attackers were killed in the incident.

An al-Shabaab spokesman has confirmed that the Al-Qaeda-linked group was behind the attack, claiming that their commandos had managed to seize the president’s office inside the presidential compound known as the Villa Somalia. He further indicated that fourteen government soldiers had been killed in the assault however these claims have not been confirmed by Somali government officials.

During a press conference on Wednesday, Information Minister Mustafa Dhuhulow confirmed that police and intelligence heads – Abdihakim Saaid and Bashir Gobe respectively – have been replaced with immediate effect, adding that three of the attackers have been arrested while a fourth has been killed.

The attack appears to be a repeat of an al-Shabaab assault against the presidential palace that occurred in February. In May the Islamist insurgents also launched a similar attack against the national parliament. At the start of the holy month of Ramadan, al-Shabaab’s spokesman promised that the groups fighters would step up their attacks, particularly throughout the capital city. The militant’s warnings appear to be coming true as al-Shabaab militants have carried out a number of attacks throughout Mogadishu, attacks which have further highlighted the capital’s security issues. Further attacks targeting the Somali government are expected over the coming weeks as al-Shabaab attempts to remove the Western-backed government.

Meanwhile, al-Shabaab has threatened to kill Christians at an exclusive beach resort in Kenya. In leaflets that have been distributed over the past several days, al-Shabaab has threatened to kill Christians staying at beach resorts in Lamu and has warned the Kenyan government against killing their “Muslim brothers”. Over the past several weeks, the Kenyan ooastal area has seen a number of attacks carried out by al-Shabaab militants. Last month, at least eighty-seven people were killed in the area after the militant group launched several attacks.

Security Advisory: World Cup

The BIG semi-final!! The two pre-tournament favourites, Brazil and Germany, meet this evening in Belo Horizonte. Belo recently came into the limelight when a partially constructed overpass collapsed on a bus and two unoccupied cars. This event briefly instigated a resurgence of the fears about building quality of stadia and so on but we have not had any concerns thus far and are certainly unlikely to have any problems in the remaining 4 games.
The big story over the last few days was the corruption around the illegal selling of tickets including valuable VIP tickets with revenues of up to half a million USD per game. With several arrests, we hope this doesn’t make tickets even harder to come by. Some are estimating tickets to the final going for $16000. So if you have them KEEP THEM SAFE!
With Brazil playing in tonight’s match, the country will be at a virtual standstill; in the sense that they won’t be driving around so much as dancing around. Again, the concern about chaos in the wake of a Brazilian loss is resurfacing however, being knocked out of the semi-finals without the star player seems to be a more acceptable end to the campaign than losing to the Colombians. Nonetheless, be aware of the potential for the mood to sour and things to turn nasty very quickly after the game. Have an idea of how to get back to the hotel in a hurry after watching the match at Fan Fests or elsewhere.
As the profile of the games increases, so will the potential for publicity seekers to capitalise on the opportunity and the associate security presence as well. Security cordons will be widened to keep trouble makers away. Ticket checks will be more rigorous, especially as crowds are likely to try and force their way into this unique event. Due to the enhanced security, people will be arriving early and hanging around the stadium; try to resist the urge to drink too much. Drunken foreigners coming out of a late match are easy targets.
With 8 World Cup titles between them, these are two goliaths of the sport! This will be a great match.

Sixty Women Believed to Have Escaped Boko Haram Militants

Security sources indicated Monday that more than sixty women and girls are reported to have escaped from captivity.

Reports have indicated that more than sixty women and girls have escaped from the Nigerian Islamist group Boko Haram. They are believed to be from a group of sixty-eight women who were kidnapped last month near the town of Damboa in north-eastern Borno state. Boko Haram is still holding more than 200 schoolgirls who were abducted in April of this year.

Security sources have indicated that the women escaped when the militants went to attack a military base near Damboa on Friday. The Nigerian military has also reported that its troops killed more than fifty rebels during clashes that occurred that night. Due to on going insecurities in the region, coupled with poor access to the area, the number of women who managed to escape from Boko Haram remains unclear. However a local vigilante has reported receiving an alert from his colleagues indicating that about sixty-three abducted women and girls had made it back home late on Friday.

Meanwhile frustration continues to grow as more than 200 schoolgirls kidnapped in Chibok, Borno state, on April 14 are still being held captive. Activists of the Bring Back Our Girls movement attempted to march towards the presidential palace in Abuja on Sunday however they were turned back by security forces. According to one activist, Aisha Yesufu, “it’s 83 days today that the girls have been abducted…We have been coming out for 68 days and nobody has really listened to us.”

Nigeria’s overstretched and under-resourced military has been incapable of fighting Boko Haram’s insurgency, which has already killed thousands over the past five years.

Security Advisory: World Cup

What a day of quarterfinals!  Brazil and Germany celebrated US Independence Day in style with good clean victories.  The good news is that the worry of despondent Brazilian fans rioting in the wake of a loss has been delayed for a least a few days now.

There were no significant incidents over the last few days but there have been reports of people having tickets stolen on the way to games and in the vicinity of the stadiums.  Like anything, “have it on show, expect it to go!” Keep your tickets out of site, especially as we progress through the latter stages of the tournament and they become increasingly valuable to maniacal football fans. Resist the temptation to boast about the tickets you have in public, as it will make you a target for theft.  The UK FCO has issued some similar advice here.

Today’s games are Argentina vs Belgium in Brasilia (27C, 52% Humidity, clear) and Costa Rica vs The Netherlands in Salvador (27C, 78%, Heavy rain due to continue). Brasilia, the capital of Brazil, has seen some large protests and there remains the possibility of political activists trying to take advantage of publicity surround the game.  Be aware, be early, and stay semi-sober until you get back from the match.  In Salvador, the weather will be the biggest problem; this may require alternative routes getting to the match.  Follow the advice given by organisers and, again, be early to prevent disappointment.  In Recife, many people missed the first half of matches due to heavy weather impeding travel.

For tomorrow’s rest day… Not to worry if you’re sick of the sun and rain in Brazil.  There’s the Wimbledon Men’s Final, the British Grand Prix, and the second stage of the Tour de France.