Key Judgement: It is highly likely that Russia would continue taking foreigners from Western countries as hostage to be used as bargaining chips It is likely that targeted foreigners have Western countries citizenship with Russian citizenship or ethnic background. It is realistically possible that...
Amidst the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been overshadowed. Prime Minister Netanyahu said on Sunday that the intense phase of the war in Gaza with Hamas is about to end which has two potential...
The Allianz für Deutschland (AfD) is a right-wing German political party which has been hit with numerous serious accusations and scandals over the last few months in the run up to the German general elections. These scandals have included accusations of one of the party’s...
Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a Sunni Islamic jihadist group, rose from the ashes of Al-Qaeda in 2014, establishing a ‘caliphate’ in northern Iraq and Syria. In 2017, a US-led anti-terrorism coalition declared victory over ISIS, expelling them from their lands in northern...
French President Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly voiced that he is not opposed to sending French troops to Ukraine. Given the ever-deterioratingrelationship between Russia and the West and the persistent activities of Russian intelligence services meddling in the affairs of countries in Western and Southern Europe,...
Key Judgement: It is highly likely that Russia would attempt to destabilize Poland by weaponizing migrants (High confidence) It is highly likely that recent European Parliament election result would be supportive Poland’s extreme border control policy, and migrants flow would be helpful for right wing...
This paper analyses Israel's military operation in Rafah on May 6th, 2024, within the broader context of the Gaza Strip conflict. It explores the factors leading to the operation, its immediate consequences, and its regional and international implications, including diplomatic tensions and humanitarian concerns. On May...
It is highly likely that the Houthis will continue to use their current Red Sea strategy in order to consolidate their power and territory in Yemen and achieve political legitimacy. It is assessed with high confidence that political leverage over the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia,...
Key Judgements: There has been a recent surge of Russian and Chinese backed espionage operations in regions across Western and Southern Europe. These operations have greatly affected the security of Western and Southern Europe and demonstrate that both Russia and China are gearing towards a...
Key Judgements: The Russian Spring Offensive would likely be targeting Kharkiv. Russia is likely to be able to establish a buffer zone to stop Ukrainian strikes against the Belgorod region. It is unlikely that Russia would be able to take control of the whole Kharkiv...