MS Risk Blog

US Gun Violence

How the July 4 2023 shootings exemplify why national holidays and public celebrations are a prime target for mass shootings and how global warming is adding to this problem.

Gun violence and mass shootings have been commonplace across the United States throughout 2023. Public holidays such as New Year’s Day and Thanksgiving are considered the most dangerous days for these shootings. The most dangerous of these holidays for mass shootings is the Fourth of July celebrations. This year there were sixteen mass shootings that occurred over the 30 June-5 July period resulting in twenty people killed and one hundred and twenty-six injured. These shootings have demonstrated further why public holidays are extremely dangerous in America and have become more common in recent years. These shootings present both a danger to the public and put a strain on the police force. Common celebrations such as birthday and house parties have also shown to be prime targets for gun violence in the US. On 23 April 2023, a shooting at an after-prom party resulted in eleven teenagers injured. This was the second shooting to occur that month with a mass shooting a week prior at a sweet sixteen party resulting in four dead and twenty-eight injured. Mass shootings at schools, shopping malls and churches have also occurred across America, though they are less common than shootings during celebrations, suggesting the need for an increased focus on security and monitoring the relationship between celebrations and gun violence. The increase in mass shootings in America over the last twenty years suggest that there may be some correlation between global warming and an increase in shootings.

The sixteen shootings from the 30 June-5 July were the largest amount of mass shootings that occurred within a one-week period so far in 2023. James Alan Fox, a criminologist in Northeastern University, using data from the Gun Violence Archive, found that there had been fifty-two shootings during Fourth of July celebrations over the last decade. This averages at just over five a year. Making the shootings during this year’s Fourth of July celebrations the worst in the last decade. Researchers and analysts, such as Jaclyn Schildkraut, executive director of the Regional Gun Violence Research Consortium at the Rockefeller Institute of Government, have attributed the increase in violence to large groupings in open spaces as well higher temperatures. It is likely that part of the reason this year’s violence was at such a high level was due to the increase in temperatures caused by the current wildfires occurring in Canada and the increase in global temperature. The trend of shootings occurring during public holidays appears to extend towards common celebrations such as birthday parties or prom/after-prom events. Two shootings occurred within one week of each other in April resulting in four dead and thirty-nine injured. Whilst there are no specific statistics available that indicate a connection between shootings and common celebratory events, the number of shootings occurring during these events in comparison to mass shootings occurring at schools, shopping malls, and churches are comparatively less common. Therefore, the common occurrence of such instances as well as the significant number of shootings that occur during public holidays indicate a need for research between mass shootings and small-scale parties.

The gradual increase in global temperature over the last decade, as well as more recently the Canadian wildfires which have further increased the temperature, can also be attributed as a cause for the Fourth of July mass shootings and the increase in shootings over this year. Data from the FBI shows that the number of mass shootings has increased from three incidents in 2000 to sixty-one incidents in 2021. Similarly, the global surface temperature for the U.S. has been increasing over the last twenty years, albeit with slight fluctuations. Nine of the top ten warmest years on record for forty-eight states have occurred since 1998, with 2012-2021 being the warmest decade on record world-wide since recordings began. Side-by-side these statistics show a correlation between an average increase in shootings alongside an increase in temperature. Whilst there are other attributing human factors that affect the occurrence of mass shootings, we are likely to see an increase in mass shootings as global warming continues to be an issue and temperatures rise.

Overall, the Fourth of July shootings demonstrate that celebratory events are prime targets for mass shootings, therefore increased surveillance and security need to be implemented during these events to counter this. The increase in temperatures caused by global warming, and subsequent disasters due to it such as the Canadian wildfires, will increase the likelihood of these shootings, causing more to happen during these events.

Tensions in the Gulf between US and Iran on the Rise

Tensions in the Gulf between the US and Iran have been increasing since April, due to a series of ship seizures by Iran that have led to more US military deployments in the region. Iran likely seeks to deter the US and its allies from obstructing its oil exports, exert pressure on and get concessions from Washington, and drive a wedge between it and its regional partners. The US has an interest in deterring further Iranian aggression and demonstrating that it is still a reliable security provider in the Gulf. Nevertheless, a direct conflict appears unlikely.

The latest row in the Gulf began in late April when Iran’s forces seized a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker, asserting that it had collided with an Iranian boat. Then a few days later, in early May, another Panama-flagged tanker was seized by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) due to a “judicial order” as reported by Iranian media. Tensions continued into early July, with US Navy ships preventing the Iranians from seizing two oil tankers off Oman’s coast. According to the Navy’s statement, Iranian forces had opened fire against the second vessel, without causing serious damage or loss of life. Highlighting the seriousness of the situation, on 13 August US and European maritime forces in the Gulf advised vessels transiting the area to stay as far away from Iranian territorial waters as possible and warned of new potential attacks against commercial shipping.

The ratcheting tensions have led to the bolstering of both US and Iranian forces in the Gulf. In May, the Pentagon announced that US forces would increase patrols near the Strait of Hormuz, the crucial waterway through which around 20% of the global crude oil supply passes. But after the July incident, Washington opted for a stronger response. Throughout July and by early August, the US sent additional F-16 and F-35 fighter jets, additional warships, and more than 3,000 military personnel to the region. Furthermore, the Biden administration has floated the idea of deploying armed Marines on commercial ships to deter Iranian seizure attempts. The plan, if it is finally approved, would constitute an extraordinary US commitment to regional security. In turn, Iran has responded with its own military measures. The IRGC launched drills on three islands disputed with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and it also announced that its naval forces would be equipped with additional drones and new cruise and ballistic missiles.

Why are Tehran and Washington doubling down on their posture in the region? Judging from both sides’ actions and statements, as well as the overall context of the current escalation, both sides have an interest in demonstrating assertiveness, although they are still unwilling to step into a direct conflict.

From Iran’s viewpoint, it seems that its moves were primarily a response to recent US measures against it. Reports said that days before the seizure in April, the US Justice Department had seized a tanker carrying Iranian crude oil destined for China, as Washington seeks to tighten enforcement of sanctions against Iran. The Iranian government probably seeks to convey the message that it will move aggressively to defend its interests against Western attempts to stifle its economy. This is made all the more important by Iran’s dire economic situation due to successive US sanctions, as well as the 2022 mass protests that challenged the regime’s hold on power. Keeping its oil exports running at all costs is crucial for the country’s economy to stay afloat.

It must be noted that Iran has a history of seizing foreign ships as leverage. According to US officials, Iran has seized or attacked 15 ships in the last two years and this approach has had some impact so far. For example, in 2022, two Greek tankers were seized after the US confiscated a cargo of Iranian oil near Greece. They were released after the Greek supreme court ordered that the cargo be returned to Iran. Iran’s tactics have thus achieved some success in protecting its interests and it is expected that the Islamic Republic will continue employing them, in the absence of other means of leverage.

Another Iranian goal is likely to exert more pressure on Washington as the two countries seek a new diplomatic arrangement after the collapse of negotiations to revive the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) over Iran’s nuclear program last year. Multiple sources have said that the Biden administration has been working on an interim informal deal, under which the US would refrain from tightening or imposing new sanctions against Iran in return for a halt to Tehran’s uranium enrichment and attacks on US forces in Syria and Iraq, among other mutual concessions. Iran most likely understands that the US government is loath to get involved in a new conflict in the Middle East amid its preoccupation with deterring Russia and China. Its aggressive moves in the Gulf further increase pressure on the White House to negotiate and provide more concessions to Tehran. As evidenced by last week’s agreement for the release of five US citizens detained in Iran in return for Tehran’s access to $6 billion in Iranian oil revenue held in South Korea, both sides prefer to avoid conflict and try to reach a negotiated settlement, despite their assertive military posture.

Washington’s Gulf Arab allies are probably also a target of Iran’s pressure tactics. Despite their longstanding security ties to the US, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are increasingly concerned about Washington’s willingness to defend them against Iranian threats amid the latter’s pivot to Asia and its focus on the Ukraine war. By demonstrating its capability to impede maritime access to the Gulf, which is vital for the regional states’ capability to export their oil to global markets, Tehran likely seeks to persuade them that the US is not a reliable security guarantor and that their interests would be best served by an accommodation with Iran. This approach may also have achieved some success. In May, the UAE announced its withdrawal from a US-led regional maritime security grouping, reportedly due to the failure to stop Iran’s seizure of the two tanker ships. Following on that, in early June, an Iranian official announced that Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Pakistan, and India would form a “naval alliance” to ensure regional stability and security. Although whether this will indeed happen is still unclear, it does show that the Arab Gulf states are keen to balance their relations with Iran and seek some kind of accommodation with Tehran.

As for the US, its decision to strengthen its military presence in the Gulf is probably meant both to more effectively deter Iran and address its regional partners’ concerns. Heightened Iranian aggression would very likely lead to more instability in the Gulf, further exacerbating the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine. Increased US forces in the region will likely constrain Iran’s potential for more escalation. Furthermore, after its failure to prevent the seizures in April and May, Washington likely seeks to demonstrate its commitment to regional security and preserve its influence with the Arab Gulf states while avoiding a direct conflict.  Reassuring Gulf Arab governments that it is still a reliable partner has probably been a high priority for the US due to China’s increasing influence in the region, as showcased by its successful mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran last March. Efforts to allay the Gulf states’ concerns are likely also linked to ongoing US mediation for a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. According to reports, one of the Saudi government’s main demands in exchange for normalizing relations with Tel Aviv is a formal US security guarantee. The new troop deployments and plans to protect commercial ships might be part of the negotiations and diplomatic bargaining between Washington and Riyadh, aimed at enticing the Saudis to accept US and Israeli proposals.

In conclusion, both the US and Iran have an interest in pursuing an assertive posture in the Gulf. The two countries seek to deter and exert pressure on each other while demonstrating their military power and influence to other regional states. Still, a direct conflict seems unlikely, as it would be highly detrimental to both sides’ interests. The course of events will be determined by the ongoing nuclear talks between the US and Iran, as well as the negotiations between the US (and Israel) and the Arab Gulf states to shape the future of their relationships.

Mexico Sees Resurgence in Gang Violence

Mexico has seen a dramatic resurgence in gang violence since June 2023 despite the quiet of the last two months

Cartel violence in Mexico has shown a dramatic increase since mid-late June 2023 from the low numbers of reported crime in April and May 2023. The scale has also reached city-wide levels of violence that were seen in January 2023 following the escape of ‘El Chapo’s’ son. The violence has been widespread across the country. Many of the recent cartel attacks have targeted Mexican law enforcement, such as the abduction of fourteen state police officers in southern Mexico on Tuesday 27 June, a stark contrast from the more common rival gang violence or civilian targeted violence. There has been no confirmed reason for the targeting of law enforcement, however, the timing of the resurgence in cartel violence suggests that the increase is likely in response to the Mayor of the Mexican border city of Tijuana, Montserrat Caballero, deciding to live at an army base for her own safety on the 14 June after receiving threats made by drug cartels in the region. It is likely that the cartels became emboldened by this perceived retreat and increased their activities on both scale and against law enforcement. The violence has further demonstrated President Obrador’s lack of success in curbing cartel violence. Therefore, despite cartel violence having declined once again as of August 7 2023, further resurgence can be expected within the near future unless significant measures are taken against them.

The cartel violence has increased in both scale and target-scope. City-wide levels of cartel violence are not a new phenomenon and have been seen in the past. On January 6 2023, following Ovidio Guzman’s escape and subsequent recapture by Mexican military, Sinaloa’s state capital, Culiacan was filled with roadblocks and gunfire. City-wide violence most recently occurred on the 11 July when an unidentified drug cartel set off a series of explosives in Tlajomulco killing four officers and two civilians. This appears to be the first time a Mexican cartel has used improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to target and kill law enforcement personnel. This was the latest example of the increasing open, military-style challenge posed by drug cartels against law-enforcement. The targeting of law enforcement personnel has seen an increase across the last two months. One of the most open attacks against law enforcement personnel occurred on the 27 June when armed men abducted fourteen state police officers in southern Mexico on the highway between Ocozocoautla and Tuxtla Gutierrez. Fortunately, all officers kidnapped were released a few days following the kidnapping, however, the kidnapping of so many law enforcement officials in one attack was the first highly open challenge to law enforcement personnel that has occurred this year. The increase in targeting of law enforcement and timing of the attacks suggest that the cartels have gained increased confidence in targeting law enforcement.

The decision of Motserrat Caballero to live at an army base on the 14 June for her own safety after receiving threats is somewhat likely the reason for increased cartel activity against law enforcement as they have possibly perceived this as a retreat. The need to seek safety in such a manner coupled with the increase in cartel attacks on law enforcement, as well as their advancement in techniques (e.g. use of IEDs) has further exemplified President Obrador’s failure at tackling the cartels in Mexico. 2023 has seen a decrease in Obrador’s credibility and strength in tackling cartel violence. In March 2023 he denounced a US Republican-led push for military intervention against cartels in Mexico following a high profile abduction of U.S. citizens earlier that month. Furthermore, cartels were able to increase their influence during the immigration crisis throughout January-May 2023, providing smuggling services for $200 each. The continual failure of President Obrador and his government to curtail cartel activities has therefore likely attributed in increasing the targeting of law enforcement as they have had little repercussions in response to the attacks.

Brazil: Political leadership and challenges in the Amazon

At the start of Lula Da Silva’s term in office, observers feared that there would be great political instability due to the fracturing of society between the left and the right, which proved to be the case. However, the ousting of Jair Bolsonaro at the end of June has weakened the right, which is now forced to find a new leader to lead the opposition. Among the left-wing president’s domestic challenges is the protection of the Amazon, which includes both environmental protection and indigenous populations, as well as the fight against crime. This aspect has been taken seriously by the government, and the first results are being felt. It is highly likely that Brazil will maintain these efforts over the next 6 months.

On 1 January 2023, Lula Da Silva, figurehead of the Workers’ Party (PT), was sworn in as President of the Republic of Brazil for the 3rd time, after having served two consecutive terms from 2003 to 2011. These presidential elections were won against the outgoing president of the Social Liberal Party (PSL), Jair Bolsonaro, with just 50.90% of the vote, in what was the closest presidential election in Brazil’s history. The electoral campaign had been marked by a polarisation of debates between the left, represented by the current President, and the right coalescing around Jair Bolsonaro. Shortly after taking office, President Lula Da Silva was confronted with spectacular rioting in the capital on 8 January, reminiscent of the US Capitol storming 2 years earlier. The pro-Bolsonaro demonstrators stormed the National Congress, the Planalto presidential palace and the Federal Supreme Court, located in the capital’s Three Powers Square. Amid suspicions of collusion between certain members of the security forces and the rioters, the authorities reacted by making major arrests (more than 1,500 were arrested and questioned at the time) and sacking senior members of the armed forces and the police, who were deemed to be too close to the far-right former president. While in Florida, US, Jair Bolsonaro did little to condemn the rioters and was even accused of seeking to stage a coup. Still popular with right-wing voters, the former soldier finally returned to Brasilia on 30 March to resume political life. However, Jair Bolsonaro had to deal with 16 different cases, including that of wanting to foment a coup d’état, attempting to illegally bring back jewelry from Arabia while he was travelling in the region, and later falsifying the health data of certain relatives to allow them to travel to the US, while anti-Covid measures were in place, to name but a few. Although all these affairs undermined some of his credibility, the former president remained surprisingly popular on the right. As a result, the first 6 months of Lula Da Silva’s term were marked, domestically, by struggles against the right-wing coalition that was being organised around Jair Bolsonaro. But on 30 June, the far-right politician was sentenced to 8 years ineligibility for spreading false information about the electoral system. The court’s decision prevents him de jure from standing in the next presidential election, and de facto reduces his political weight in the country. Since then, several politicians have sought to emerge and present themselves as credible leaders, including the wife of the former president, Michelle Reinaldo, but no single politician has been able to assert himself. This sidelining has created a vacuum in the opposition, giving some breathing space to Lula Da Silva’s government, even though institutions such as Congress are still tilted to the right.

One of the points of divergence between Left and Right concerns the treatment of Amazonia. This immense territory, which is difficult to control, covers an area of 5,500,000 sq km and is home to 40% of the world’s remaining tropical rainforest. It is vital for biodiversity and the global climate balance thanks to its great capacity to absorb CO2. Several indigenous peoples also live in the region, perpetuating their own cultures and ways of life. On 8 August, following a census carried out by the Brazilian authorities, their number was estimated at 1,693,535. One of Brazil’s largest communities, the Yanomami, has been the regular target of attacks by criminal groups, whose activities had intensified in the Amazon due to a lack of concern on the part of the government of Jair Bolsonaro, in power from 2019 to the end of 2022. This lack of protective policy had enabled criminal groups to develop illegal activities linked to deforestation, timber trafficking, illegal gold panning and cattle farming, to name but a few. On 29 April, the left-wing president decreed six new indigenous reserves, covering an area of nearly 620,000 hectares, prohibiting mining and restricting commercial agriculture. However, on the same day, an attack by armed criminals aimed at driving out the Yanomami to take over their land and exploit it, resulted in the death of 3 natives. The government responded by launching special operations. Since then, nearly 80% of the 20,000 gold miners who invaded the reserve have reportedly already been evicted, and 300 mining camps have been dismantled as well as 20 planes and a helicopter destroyed. On 10 July, the number of criminals to be expelled was estimated at between 1,500 and 2,000 out of the 20,000 present in the Yanomami reserve, according to Humberto Freire, Brazil’s federal police chief for the Amazon. These encouraging results should not mask the difficulties. On 1 June, Alexandre Saraiva, former head of the federal police, said that the Amazon could become a backyard for heavily armed criminal insurgents, noting a resurgence of mafias and illegal timber, gold and drug trafficking in the region during his tenure from 2011 to 2021. Attacks remain frequent. On 17 May, the Brazilian Environmental Institute (Ibama) recorded an increase of almost 90% in environmental offences since 1 January. On 9 June, the Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil (APIB), the country’s largest coalition of indigenous groups, asked the authorities for help in protecting them from criminals. In addition to these difficulties, the Brazilian Congress, which is predominantly right-wing, is complicating the government’s maneuvers. For example, on 24 May, the Congress approved a bill that would strip the Ministry of the Environment of control of the Rural Environment Register, a key tool in the fight against illegal deforestation, land grabbing and water resources. But despite these problems, the authorities continue to fight against illegal activities and to protect the environment. According to data collected by the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE) and published on 3 August, deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon fell by almost 66% in July. According to the same institute, deforestation has fallen by a third since Lula Da Silva took office in January, raising hopes that these improvements will continue in the medium term. As proof of his political commitment, on 13 June, Lula Da Silva met European President Ursula von der Leyen to sign a number of investment projects, including forest protection, including $21.5 million to Brazil’s Amazon Fund. On 8 July, the Brazilian President met his Colombian counterpart Gustavo Petro in Leticia, near the Brazil-Colombia-Peru triple border, to discuss the Amazon and the fight against the illegal activities that have intensified there in recent years. On 4 August, Flávio Dino, Minister of Security and Justice, stated that the government intends to increase the strength of the security forces in the region with the opening of a Command Centre in Manaus, in the north of the country. In addition, Brazil hosted the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organisation (ACTO) summit in Belem from 8 to 9 August, bringing together senior officials from countries that share a border with the Amazon or have an interest in preserving it, raising hopes that measures will be launched. The stakes are high for the Brazilian population itself.

Protecting the Amazon is a major issue for Brazil, both for its environmental aspects and its medium- and long-term security. The authorities, under the impetus of President Lula Da Silva, have decided to reinvest in a field that had been abandoned by former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro when he was in power. It would appear, from the data recorded over the last 6 months, that this new policy is already bearing fruit.

Guatemala: Voter’s fatigue and security perspective

Voters went to the polls on 25 June for the first round of the presidential election, organised every 4 years. The second and final round, scheduled for 20 August, will determine the next President of the Republic after Alejandro Giammattei. These elections took place in a climate of mistrust or disinterest among voters, frustrated by the corruption of the elites, insecurity, social inequalities, and the inability of politicians to act. Several candidates were denied the right to stand on sometimes spurious legal pretexts, tainting the democratic conduct of the country’s most important elections. Nevertheless, the surprise second-place finish of left-wing candidate Bernardo Arévalo, against all the odds, could revive interest in the elections. However, it is difficult to say how likely it is that he would be elected, given the surprise result. What’s more, among the candidates who were allowed to run, several made the fight for security a leading argument, referring to El Salvador and the state of emergency declared more than a year ago by President Nayib Bukele. This hardening of tone is likely the sign of a future shift towards a more security-oriented society.

On 25 June, Guatemala, the Central America’s largest economy with a GDP of 86 billion dollars in 2020 and the region’s most populous country with almost 17.8 million inhabitants, held the first round of presidential elections in a climate of voter mistrust over institutions and politicians. This context is explained by a highly unequal society, with 60% of the population living below the poverty line and 56% affected by food insecurity, the numerous cases of corruption among the elite and a shift in power towards greater authoritarianism.

Several candidates were refused the right to stand for election. The most notable are left-wing indigenous leader Thelma Cabrera and Jordán Rodas, and Carlos Pineda, centre-right-wing candidates. Thelma Cabrera and Jordán Rodas, of the Popular Liberation Movement (MLP), had been excluded from the lists for the elections on 25 March for procedural irregularities. This news worried some observers and led to demonstrations. Centre-right candidate Carlos Pineda, of the Citizen Prosperity party and Guatemala’s leading presidential candidate with 23% of voting intentions, was disqualified on 26 May, just a month before the first round of the election. This decision came when a few days earlier, on 23 May, the Guatemalan Electoral Observation Mission (MOE-GT), in charge with the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to monitor the democratic conduct of the elections, expressed its concern about the fraud and irregularities underway during the presidential election, including the fact that the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) is alleged to have made numerous errors during the process of accepting or rejecting candidates. One third of the country’s 9 million voters are not registered to vote and the results of the first round quickly gave way to a number of demonstrations and scuffles with the police, although no major damage was caused. The only surprise was that a left-wing candidate, Bernardo Arévalo, member of the Movimiento Semilla, who obtained 12% of the vote, whereas some polls had predicted 3%, just behind former First Lady Sandra Torres, member of the Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE), who obtained almost 16% of the vote. However, the no-vote came in first with around 17%, indicating voter fatigue.

Sandra Torres, who is leading the polls and is the centre-left favourite, could seek to attract the votes of right-wing conservatives against her left-wing opponent, by toughening her security proposals and taking as a model the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, who in March 2022 introduced a particularly strict and repressive state of emergency, the aim of which was to put an end to the influence of gangs such as MS-13 and Barrio 18, endemic not only to the country but also to Central America in general. These repressive measures in El Salvador have been met with a favourable response in neighbouring Guatemala, and it is likely that security policy will be tightened after the elections.

Although the presidential elections in Guatemala in June did not go smoothly due to irregularities and the exclusion of candidates, Bernardo Arévalo was a surprise candidate in the second round. His candidacy may well be an opportunity to rekindle the interest of some voters in the elections. What is certain, however, is that the many promises and election speeches made by candidates referring to the state of emergency in El Salvador are likely to be fulfilled afterwards.