MS Risk Limited

07 Jun Gaza Escalation: Understanding Israel’s Rafah Operation and Its Broader Implications

Posted at 18:49h in Uncategorized

This paper analyses Israel's military operation in Rafah on May 6th, 2024, within the broader context of the Gaza Strip conflict. It explores the factors leading to the operation, its immediate consequences, and its regional and international implications, including diplomatic tensions and humanitarian concerns. On May...

21 May The Driving Forces behind the Houthis

Posted at 23:23h in Uncategorized

It is highly likely that the Houthis will continue to use their current Red Sea strategy in order to consolidate their power and territory in Yemen and achieve political legitimacy. It is assessed with high confidence that political leverage over the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia,...

17 May Russian and Chinese Intelligence Operations in the UK and Germany (April 2024)

Posted at 23:50h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements: There has been a recent surge of Russian and Chinese backed espionage operations in regions across Western and Southern Europe. These operations have greatly affected the security of Western and Southern Europe and demonstrate that both Russia and China are gearing towards a...

14 May Russian 2024 Spring Offensive

Posted at 23:26h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements: The Russian Spring Offensive would likely be targeting Kharkiv. Russia is likely to be able to establish a buffer zone to stop Ukrainian strikes against the Belgorod region. It is unlikely that Russia would be able to take control of the whole Kharkiv...

03 May The Clash of Longstanding Rivals: A Turning Point in the Middle East?

Posted at 23:25h in Uncategorized

This paper delves into the recent escalation between Iran and Israel, focusing on the aerial assault targeting the Iranian consulate in Damascus at the beginning of the month and Iran's response through a missile operation directed at Israel on April 14th. It evaluates the scale...

23 Apr Somali piracy amid Houthi disruption

Posted at 15:22h in Uncategorized

Key Judgments: We assess that Somali pirates pose a heightened threat to commercial ships. The rise in Somali piracy in this region is seen as an opportunistic approach to their activities, rather than a strategic approach, and is due to the disruptions that have been...

08 Apr Assessing Israel’s Operation at Al-Shifa Hospital: Justifiable Defence or Violation?

Posted at 20:10h in Uncategorized

This paper provides an analysis of the Israeli Defence Forces' (IDF) operations at Al-Shifa Hospital on March 18th. It evaluates the claims regarding the presence of Hamas members, the civilian casualties, and the ethical considerations involved in striking medical facilities. The assessment evaluates the IDF's...

04 Apr Moldova’s Pivot to the West

Posted at 23:39h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements: It is highly likely that President Sandu will be re-elected in upcoming presidential election of 2024. (High confidence) It is Almost certain that re-elected President Sandu would attempt to join EU, aiming to become a member state within the next 10 years. (High confidence) It is...

02 Apr Deploying the Taurus KEPD 350 to Ukraine – Pros and Cons

Posted at 23:21h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements: The German-Swedish manufactured Taurus KEPD 350 is an extremely versatile missile system that could be operationally, tactically and strategically be beneficial to the Ukrainian Armed Forces if it is given the green light to be deployed to Ukraine by Germany. The Ukrainian military...

15 Mar UK economic consequences from Red Sea disruption

Posted at 18:59h in Uncategorized

Key Judgments: It is likely that negative market sentiment will drive inflationary pressures in the next 12 months. (High confidence). It is likely that the Bank of England will not cut interest rates in the next 12 months. (Low confidence). It is highly likely that...