It is likely that current Moldovan administration would win presidential election and EU referendum on 20 October. It is unlikely Russian interference would make significant change on the result of election. It is highly likely that Russia and pro-Russian movement would attempt to destabilize...
What is Russia’s shadow fleet and how big is it? According to the UK Government policy paper ‘The ‘Shadow Fleet’: A Call To Action’, Russia’s shadow fleet “comprises ships engaged in illegal operations for the purposes of circumventing sanctions, evading compliance with safety or environmental regulations,...
Key Judgments: It is highly likely that the increasing sanctions against Iran will result in it deepening its relationships with other hostile nations such as Russia and China, leading to an emerging economic and military axis that challenges Western interests. (High confidence). Over the short...
The Middle East's complex situation remains uncertain, with its origins profoundly rooted in the Palestinian conflict. Despite continuous diplomatic interventions and negotiations, the region has yet to achieve lasting peace. Ten months into the conflict, mediators continue to facilitate discussion and secure a ceasefire deal. The...
Key Judgments: It is highly likely that Iran is enriching uranium to near weapons-grade levels (90%), significantly increasing the risk of military conflict with Israel. (High confidence) It is unlikely that ongoing diplomatic efforts to revive the JCPOA will succeed in the near term, given...
Ukraine invasion into Russia Key Judgement: It is highly likely that Ukrainian offensive would damage Russian war capability. It is likely that Ukraine offensive is to create breakthrough in Eastern Ukraine, in both strategic and political ground. It is realistically possible this would ultimately lead...
Two high-profile killings in Beirut and Tehran have highlighted Israel's military capability, with the potential to change Middle Eastern relations. The killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Faud Shukur has prompted strong reactions from regional players and could further escalate tensions in...
Key Judgements: Disinformation was spread online on X, far right telegram channels and on Incel forums after a knife attack at a Taylor Swift themed dance class in Southport, United Kingdom, resulted in the deaths of three young girls and injured eight other children including...
Since October of 2023, the Houthi militants in Yemen have sought to disrupt global shipping by way of missile attacks throughout the Red Sea region. The Houthi’s claim that their motive for this strategy is linked to defending the people of Gaza against Israel, however...
Key Judgement: It is highly likely that Russia would continue taking foreigners from Western countries as hostage to be used as bargaining chips It is likely that targeted foreigners have Western countries citizenship with Russian citizenship or ethnic background. It is realistically possible that...