Key Judgements Tensions continue to rise in the South China Sea as China and the Philippines remain entangled in a maritime dispute amid legal standoff. The turn of the new year saw Filipino Coast Guard assets facing off a Chinese research vessel off the coast of...
Key Judgements Iran's security forces have killed at least 2,500-3,400 protesters during a violent crackdown on nationwide demonstrations that began in late December 2025, representing one of the deadliest protest suppressions in modern Iranian history and potentially precipitating a broader regional crisis. The crisis has...
Key Judgements Russian-linked Orthodox circles are being leveraged to disperse anti-European ideology within socially conservative areas. Religious legitimacy provides Russian-linked actors with a deniable influence mechanism Activity levels are directly correlated to key political events such as elections. Suggesting tolerance and potentially coordination from Russian-friendly...
Key Judgements Syria's interim government faces a critical December 31, 2025, deadline to integrate Kurdish SDF forces, threatening the fragile one-year-old political transition if negotiations fail. Lebanon's inability to disarm Hezbollah by the US-imposed December 31 deadline risks triggering renewed military conflict, with Israel conducting...
On 7th December the ceasefire deal between Thailand and Cambodia collapsed as heavy fighting broke out along the 817km border. This most recent and deadly phase of the conflict has resulted in at least 60 people killed and numerous more injured and displaced, with Thailand...
Key Judgements Large-scale increases in low-cost aerial smuggling methods over the Polish, Belarusian and Lithuanian border area, centred around commercially available drones and weather balloons, highlight he ‘hybrid’ nature of threats in the area. Recent balloon incursions have caused widespread disruption and temporary closures...
Summary On 28 September 2025, the Republic of Moldova will elect a new parliament. The vote is considered decisive for the country's geopolitical direction. It could either confirm the pro-European course with the goal of EU integration by 2028 or initiate a return to neutrality and...
Context Since mid-July, Washington under President Donald Trump has been pursuing new diplomatic initiatives to achieve a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. An announced ultimatum to Russia threatening harsh punitive tariffs was replaced by a summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska on 15 August. A subsequent...
Key Judgments 2 days of heavy clashes between the Spanish and North African populations caused by an assault on a pensioner in the town of Torre Pacheo Linked to the messaging of far-right political party, Vox and anti-immigrant sentiment in Spain Likely to impact the...
In June and July 2025, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania formally announced their withdrawal from the Convention on the Prohibition of Anti-Personnel Mines. The so-called Ottawa Treaty prohibits the use of anti-personnel mines. The exit reflects the evolving threat landscape along NATO’s northeastern flank...