MS Risk Limited

20 Jan Iran’s Mass Crackdown on Nationwide Protests: Regional Implications and Escalation Risks

Posted at 00:49h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Iran's security forces have killed at least 2,500-3,400 protesters during a violent crackdown on nationwide demonstrations that began in late December 2025, representing one of the deadliest protest suppressions in modern Iranian history and potentially precipitating a broader regional crisis. The crisis has...

10 Jan Russian control and messaging within Orthodox identity in Moldova.

Posted at 01:00h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Russian-linked Orthodox circles are being leveraged to disperse anti-European ideology within socially conservative areas. Religious legitimacy provides Russian-linked actors with a deniable influence mechanism Activity levels are directly correlated to key political events such as elections. Suggesting tolerance and potentially coordination from Russian-friendly...

29 Dec Analysis on Situations in Syria and Lebanon

Posted at 21:19h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Syria's interim government faces a critical December 31, 2025, deadline to integrate Kurdish SDF forces, threatening the fragile one-year-old political transition if negotiations fail. Lebanon's inability to disarm Hezbollah by the US-imposed December 31 deadline risks triggering renewed military conflict, with Israel conducting...

26 Dec Renewed Thailand-Cambodia hostilities

Posted at 21:00h in Uncategorized

On 7th December the ceasefire deal between Thailand and Cambodia collapsed as heavy fighting broke out along the 817km border. This most recent and deadly phase of the conflict has resulted in at least 60 people killed and numerous more injured and displaced, with Thailand...

22 Dec Spike in cross-border smuggling networks between Belarus, Poland and Lithuania

Posted at 20:45h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements Large-scale increases in low-cost aerial smuggling methods over the Polish, Belarusian and Lithuanian border area, centred around commercially available drones and weather balloons, highlight he ‘hybrid’ nature of threats in the area. Recent balloon incursions have caused widespread disruption and temporary closures...

22 Sep Parliamentary Elections in Moldova 2025: Between Europe and Russia

Posted at 23:17h in Uncategorized

Summary On 28 September 2025, the Republic of Moldova will elect a new parliament. The vote is considered decisive for the country's geopolitical direction. It could either confirm the pro-European course with the goal of EU integration by 2028 or initiate a return to neutrality and...

29 Aug Ukraine–Russia Peace Negotiations: Status and Outlook

Posted at 23:07h in Uncategorized

Context Since mid-July, Washington under President Donald Trump has been pursuing new diplomatic initiatives to achieve a ceasefire in the Ukraine war. An announced ultimatum to Russia threatening harsh punitive tariffs was replaced by a summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska on 15 August. A subsequent...

06 Aug Anti migrant unrest in southern Spain town, “Torre Pacheo” turned violent

Posted at 23:39h in Uncategorized

Key Judgments 2 days of heavy clashes between the Spanish and North African populations caused by an assault on a pensioner in the town of Torre Pacheo Linked to the messaging of far-right political party, Vox and anti-immigrant sentiment in Spain Likely to impact the...

28 Jul Shifting Ground: NATO’s Eastern Border Strategy and the Return of Landmines

Posted at 19:49h in Uncategorized

In June and July 2025, Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania formally announced their withdrawal from the Convention on the Prohibition of Anti-Personnel Mines. The so-called Ottawa Treaty prohibits the use of anti-personnel mines. The exit reflects the evolving threat landscape along NATO’s northeastern flank...

25 Jul 5 days of race riots in Northern Ireland

Posted at 20:03h in Uncategorized

Key Judgements 5 days of violent race riots in the Ballymena area of Northern Ireland after the attempted rape of a teenage girl 32 police officers were injured, and several houses were burned or damaged Additional police officers and resources were requested from Great...