MS Risk Blog

Israel’s double strikes: A Spark for Regional Conflict

Two high-profile killings in Beirut and Tehran have highlighted Israel’s military capability, with the potential to change Middle Eastern relations. The killings of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Faud Shukur has prompted strong reactions from regional players and could further escalate tensions in the region.

On Wednesday 31^st July, a strike in Tehran killed Ismail Haniyeh, a political leader for Hamas, who was visiting Iran for the presidential inauguration. Haniyeh’s death followed the assassination of Faud Shukur in Beirut, allegedly carried out by Israel in retaliation for a Hezbollah attack that resulted in the deaths of twelve children in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams.

The Israeli message for the attack in Beirut is that this was their promised response to the Majdal Shams strike, and they are not interested in engaging in a more deadly war with Hezbollah. According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health, the attack in Beirut claimed the lives of at least five civilians, including two children and three women, and injured 74 others in the surrounding area. Hezbollah has not yet confirmed Shukur’s death.

Israel has claimed responsibility for Shukur’s assassination, identifying him as the mastermind behind the deadly rocket attack in the Golan Heights. The United States also holds Shukur accountable for the 1983 bombing of a Marine Corps barracks in Lebanon, which led to the deaths of 241 American service members.

On the other hand, Israel has yet to confirm its involvement in Haniyeh’s death. However, a photo of Haniyeh with the word “Eliminated” written appeared on the Government Press Office’s Facebook page. The message, which was later deleted without explanation, did not expressly say Israel carried out the hit, but did state that the Hamas official “was killed in a precise strike in Tehran.”

Following these strikes it increases significantly the danger of expansion of the conflict. Hezbollah will certainly respond to the killing of Shukr, but so will Iran for its attack on its soil whose leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has already promised revenge. Iran may launch a small-scale strike to demonstrate that “we will not tolerate attacks on our soil,” but nothing that could escalate into something larger.

On the Lebanese front, the U.S has worked hard to maintain a delicate balance among Hezbollah and Isael. However, this strike on Lebanese soil has the potential to disturb the status quo and provoke a strong reaction. In recent weeks, we have witnessed more tension between the boards, increasing the prospect of a strong response from Hezbollah. Furthermore, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has threatened to interfere if Israel enters Lebanon, pledging to send troops, adding yet another party to the tensions.

The Southport knife attack, disinformation online and how extremist groups (Far right and Incels) have reacted

Key Judgements:

• Disinformation was spread online on X, far right telegram channels and on Incel forums after a knife attack at a Taylor Swift themed dance class in Southport, United Kingdom, resulted in the deaths of three young girls and injured eight other children including two adults.
• As a result of this disinformation being spread online about the identity of the attacker and the false claim that he was a “Muslim Immigrant” riots erupted between protestors and the police in multiple locations across the country. This shows that disinformation and false narratives can rile people up to believe ‘facts’ that are false.
• The Far right and Incel groups have taken advantage of the Southport attack to encourage violence, unrest and to promote their own extremist views and narratives.

On July 29, 2024, a 17-year-old boy armed with a knife carried out an attack at a Taylor Swift themed dance and yoga class which was taking place at the Heart Space Community Hub in Southport, London, United Kingdom. The class at the time of the attack was fully booked with 25 children. At the time of the attack, the attacker walked inside the venue and began stabbing multiple children and two adults. The attack resulted in the deaths of six-year-old Bebe King, seven-year-old Elsie Dot Stancombe and nine-year-old Alice Dasilva Aguiar, with the attacker also injuring eight other children, (five who are in critical condition) and critically injuring two adults. The two adults who were critically injured are believed to have been trying to protect the children at the time of the attack. Merseyside Police first received calls of the attack taking place at 11:47am and responded to the incident rapidly, with armed police arresting the 17-year-old and seizing the knife from him. The incident is not being treated as terror related and inquiries are still ongoing in establishing the motive behind the attack. At the time of writing, police are focusing specifically on the perpetrator’s mental health in the years leading up to the attack.

The 17-year-old boy who carried out the Southport attack is from Banks, a Lancashire village just to the north of Southport. He is originally from Cardiff and moved to the Southport area in 2013. His parents are from Rwanda. The teenagers father worked as a taxi driver, and he has no ties to Islam nor holds any religious beliefs.  The details published about the attacker in the aftermath of the Southport attack were vague, with police stating that he was 17 and from Cardiff. Due to his age, the teenager cannot be named for legal reasons and no photos have been published of him online. The mix of vague details along with no photo of the perpetrator amplified online speculation, encouraging heaps of disinformation being spread about who the perpetrator was. Disinformation began spreading as soon as news of the attack was released, with accounts on X and far right channels on telegram promoting false narratives about the attacker. One account on X known as European Invasion has 360,000 followers and posted online falsely claiming that the suspect was “a Muslim Immigrant”. This post was seen by almost four million people on X. Andrew Tate amplified this false narrative by posting that the attacker was an “illegal immigrant”. The false narrative of the attacker being an “illegal immigrant” and that he was “Muslim” rapidly spread online. Soon after this a very specific bit of disinformation appeared online, claiming that the attacker was called “Ali Al-Shakati” and that he had arrived in the UK illegally last year on a boat.

The first account to mention the name “Ali Al-Shakati” was @artemisfornow in a post on X at 16:49pm on July 29, 2024. The account has 44,700 followers. By July 30 their tweet had been seen by “almost 1.5 [million] people”. This post has now been deleted.  One account on X, known as ‘The Based Paddy’ (@basedpaddy) reaffirmed the false narrative that the attacker’s name was “Ali Al-Shakati” and spread unverified claims adding that “he was on the MI6 watchlist”. Nigel Farage amplified this narrative by requesting scrutiny on the unevidenced claim that the attacker had been monitored by the security services, adding to the already piling mountain of disinformation and misinformation narratives that were circling online. Smaller accounts on X continued to spread disinformation about that the attacker was “Ali Al-Shakati”, resulting in a significant amount of people online seeing and engaging in the false narratives and disinformation. Disinformation surrounding the identity of the Southport attacker as well as other narratives in total reached “more people compared to the posts denouncing the misinformation managed to reach” on X.

The disinformation posted online was interpreted by the far right to be ‘fact’ and ‘true’ leading to these false narratives making their way into far-right telegram channels where users actively called for violence and to “begin the fight”. Within hours of the attack, far-right groups on Telegram called “for people to take to the streets not just in Southport, but across the country”.  One telegram channel set up after the Southport attack, promoted in a post for “English lads [to] rise up” and encouraged people to gather outside the Southport Mosque with their faces covered. With no image of the teenage attacker being shared online, far right groups on telegram have shared images of other people, claiming that they were the attacker. These images include an image of a knifeman who carried out an attack in France as well as an image of “an older black man held up against a police car”. These types of images posted on far-right channels are accompanied by incorrect information claiming that the attacker is not 17 years old. The far-right’s activity online shows that they are using the Southport attack incident to promote and encourage others to engage in their extremist views. Other extremist groups such as Incels have praised the attacker for attacking female victims, with one of the largest Incel forums online having multiple posts about this. This shows that Incels are taking advantage of the situation to promote their own extremist views online.

As a result of all of this disinformation being spread online, far-right fueled riots and violent protests have been seen across the United Kingdom. In central London more than 100 people were arrested on July 31 after officers clashed with protesters at Whitehall. The protesters were a part of the “Enough is Enough” demonstration. A poster for the Enough is Enough protest was shared online by a far-right activist with links to Patriotic Alternative, a British far-right, fascist, neo-nazi and white nationalist hate group. During the protest in London, “people could be heard chanting phrases such as “stop the boats” and “save our kids” as they threw bottles and cans at officers”. The disorder seen at the protest was blamed on the spread of disinformation online. In a separate incident, eight people were arrested in Hartlepool in a protest that was linked to the Southport knife attack. Police officers were attacked with glass bottles and eggs during the protest and a police car was set ablaze. In another separate incident, people protested outside a hotel in Aldershot, Hampshire. They were holding placards with slogans such as “no apartments for illegals” and “deport them, don’t support them”. Far-right fueled riots also occurred in Southport on July 30, which resulted in 53 police officers being injured. It has been estimated that between 200 -300 people were involved in the riots and that they were there “purely for hooliganism and thuggery”. Many involved in the riots are highly likely to have been there because of disinformation that they had seen online.

The riots and violent protests that have occurred in multiple locations across the country because of online disinformation and the fueling of extremist views online prove that the three key judgements outlined at the top of this report are correct and accurate judgements. Disinformation was actively spread online following the attack; the far right and the incels have taken advantage of this event; and violent riots/protests have occurred in the wake of the Southport attack. What is clear from the evidence and analysis presented in this report is that disinformation and false narratives can lead people to believe ‘facts’ that are in reality complete and utter fabrications.

The ineffectiveness of joint UK/US airstrikes in Yemen

Since October of 2023, the Houthi militants in Yemen have sought to disrupt global shipping by way of missile attacks throughout the Red Sea region. The Houthi’s claim that their motive for this strategy is linked to defending the people of Gaza against Israel, however through some further analysis, the Houthis have been attempting to consolidate regional power against the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE for nearly a decade, further adding to their motivation to attack maritime shipping in the region. In response to this disruption, the US and the UK, along with support from Western nations such as Australia, Canada, Denmark, and the Netherlands, have launched missions named Operation Poseidon Archer and Operation Prosperity Guardian to ensure and maintain freedom of navigation in the region for commercial vessels. This operation has since led to joint airstrikes being conducted on Yemeni soil to degrade Houthi capabilities, starting from January 2024. This paper seeks to assess the effectiveness of these joint US/UK airstrikes to understand the best way to confront the Houthi threat and restore freedom of navigation in the region.

From January to May of 2024, the Houthis have reported 452 joint American and British airstrikes against its sites in Yemen, with this number reaching over 500 in recent months. These strikes have resulted in the death of 40, with many more injured, and have mainly been targeting Houthi drone sites, ballistic and cruise missile launchers, radars, airports, and underground facilities where Houthi equipment may be stored. Initial estimates in January after the first strikes were that 20-30% of Houthi offensive capabilities were damaged or destroyed, with Lt. Gen. Douglas Sims, the director of the US military’s Joint Staff, claiming that they had successfully achieved their objective of damaging the Houthis’ capability to launch complex drone and missile attacks. Despite this claim, the Houthis have since gone on to conduct over 70 attacks on commercial and military vessels until July 2024, sinking two, including the Rubymar and the MV Tutor, and damaging many more, such as the 15 July strike on the Chios Lion crude oil tanker with a USV. The Houthis have also extended their threat range from the Red Sea to include the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean. The result of these attacks has been a 60% reduction in daily traffic in the Red Sea and Bab el Mandeb Strait, dropping from about 100 commercial ships per day pre-October 2023 to between 40-50 per day throughout 2024. Additionally insurance costs for commercial shipping have significantly increased in the wake of these attacks.

The result of this ongoing trade of missile strikes between Western forces and the Houthis has been a strategic victory for the Houthis. The objective for Operation’s Poseidon Archer and Prosperity Guardian was to secure and maintain freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, an objective which was entirely not achieved as evidenced by the increase in Houthi attacks. As for the Houthis, their objective has been regional power accumulation over the Yemeni government, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as well as supporting the Iranian axis of resistance in Lebanon and Gaza, objectives which were certainly achieved. By successfully continuing to attack commercial ships, the Houthis are injecting uncertainty into global trade, strongly impacting those nations which benefit the most from trade, such as the Middle Eastern states trade of oil and liquified natural gas, however also the poorer nations in the region such as Yemen itself. Whilst being immediately successful in their objectives, the longer-term result of their degradation of commercial shipping has the potential to backfire onto the nations that are already suffering most, and which benefit the most from cheaper international trade, such as Somalia and Yemen. With millions of their populations already suffering from lack of clean water, access to food, and lack of health care and sanitation; all due to civil war, there is a likelihood that the Houthis would engage in political discussions to consolidate the advances made so far in their campaign.

As a result, it might be more effective for the Western nations in the region to engage politically and economically with the Houthis, rather than through military intervention. The Houthis are bringing in a constant supply of complex weapons systems via Iran, thus making it unlikely that the US or the UK will be able to indefinitely halt Houthi attacks in the region through military action alone. Through engaging in political discussions with both Iran and the Houthis, Western nations may be able to be more effective at halting the attacks on commercial shipping. This may be attractive to the Houthis due to their desire for regional strength, something which will be lacking if they induce a famine within their own population. Whilst Western nations might decide that a political solution is too risky, and that the Houthis cannot be trusted to negotiate with, it can be assessed with high certainty that the joint US/UK airstrikes in Yemen have been highly ineffective at limiting Houthi aggression in the Red Sea. It is highly likely that the continuation of military strikes by the US and the UK will continue to induce more aggression by the Houthis with further attacks on commercial shipping.

Hostage diplomacy of Russia

Key Judgement:

• It is highly likely that Russia would continue taking foreigners from Western countries as hostage to be used as bargaining chips
• It is likely that targeted foreigners have Western countries citizenship with Russian citizenship or ethnic background.
• It is realistically possible that traveling to Belarus is also dangerous as Russia.

Hostage taking has been used by both state and non-state actors as a diplomatic tactic over the past few decades. However, most modern countries do not conduct such acts for several reasons. A few countries, such as Iran and North Korea, have been using Western hostages as a tactic to breach their international isolation. One reason these countries can and do conduct such acts is that their citizens do not need protection in foreign countries due to their political systems or international isolation. Consequently, hostage-taking by state actors is seen as an unusual act in the international community and is often viewed as a ‘rogue state’ action.

However, it seems that Russia has decided to follow its new ally – North Korea. There have been some cases of foreigners being arrested in Russia, but it was mostly due to Western foreigners who encountered problems because of a lack of understanding of Russian law enforcement’s intense practices. Since the Ukraine war, relations between Russia and the West have been deteriorating. As a result, Westerners in Russia have started to face consequences.

With Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich becoming the face of US-Russian relations, Russia is holding dozens of American citizens in jail. One of the early hostages was Brittney Griner, a WNBA star who was facing ten years in prison for bringing drugs into Russia. She was exchanged for Viktor Bout, a Russian arms dealer who was serving a term in a US prison. Since then, dozens of American citizens, some with Russian ethnic backgrounds or dual citizenship, have been detained. Because Russia presents itself as a lawful country, most arrests of Americans are under official prosecution. In most cases, Russian authorities use espionage charges against them, including Gershkovich. However, such prosecutions often do not proceed, resulting in detainees being held in legal limbo, allowing Russia to use them as bargaining chips against the United States.

There are cases where Russian authorities are not using espionage charges, such as Staff Sergeant Gordon Black, who was stationed in South Korea and travelled to Russia to meet his Russian girlfriend. He was arrested and accused of stealing from a woman. William Russel Nycum was accused of petty hooliganism and alcohol charges.

It is unclear how credible the Russian claims of espionage against US citizens are, considering US-Russian relations are at their worst since the Cold War, and there often are fabrications of evidence within Russian legal system. However, it is clear that Russian authorities are conducting systematic attacks on US citizens to pressure the US to stop its sanctions and support for Ukraine. The arrests coincide with US announcements of new sanctions or support for Ukraine, leading US authorities to believe these are targeted attacks on US citizens. The US Department of State has announced that US citizens should avoid travel to Russia due to security reasons.

Other major Western countries are also facing such dangers. One of the most notable cases is Laurent Vinatier, who works for a Swiss conflict mediation NGO. He was charged under Moscow’s “foreign agents” law amid escalating tensions between Russia and France over the Ukraine conflict. With Russian influence increasing in Africa, aiming to take over France’s original dominance, French President Emmanuel Macron has been reacting to the Russian threat strongly. Because the arrest was made right after he announced that France could send military trainers to Ukraine, it is highly likely that the espionage charge against Vinatier is false.

A similar situation happened to South Korea; a country drawn into the conflict as Russia sought help from North Korea. Although relations between the two countries had been positive, recent developments of North Korean support for the Ukraine war and economic support from Russia have deteriorated the relationship between South Korea and Russia. Russia has arrested one South Korean citizen, a preacher of a church in Vladivostok and an activist who helps North Korean defectors escape from North Korea. Like Gershkovich, he was accused of espionage by the FSB and is being held in Lefortovo prison, the same prison where Gershkovich is held.

The scope and scale of such hostage diplomacy are unclear at this point. It is also unclear how many espionage cases are true. However, it is evident that Russian authorities have abandoned their relatively friendly attitude towards foreigners. The practice that began with the World Cup and Olympics has ended, and foreigners in Russia face threats according to the ever-changing relationship between Russia and their home countries. It is also clear such arrest are synchronized with diplomatic incident.

One reason such a crackdown is possible is that Russian authorities still use the Soviet system that registers all foreigners’ domestic movements. Every person in Russia, including both foreigners and Russians, must register wherever they are living or staying. Establishments such as hotels must provide this information to authorities, allowing them to track every movement of every person in Russia. With the unregulated power of the Russian police and other security services, crackdowns against foreigners can be very easy and effective.

For these reasons, traveling to Russia without diplomatic immunity is highly dangerous. Individuals can face multiple years in Russian prison or damage the diplomatic stance of their home country. Without proper reason, traveling, living and studying in Russia must be avoided, unless the individual has Chinese, Iranian, North Korean and Belarusian citizenship. It is realistically possible that similar threat can exist also in Belarus, but crackdown against foreigners in such scale is not yet observed.

A Dangerous Escalation: Tensions Between Israel and Lebanon Raise Fears of Wider Conflict

Amidst the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel the escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon have been overshadowed. Prime Minister Netanyahu said on Sunday that the intense phase of the war in Gaza with Hamas is about to end which has two potential outcomes, either Israel moves its resources to the Hezbollah front or less likely is getting ready for a ceasefire in Gaza which is one of the preconditions to de-escalate tensions with Hezbollah.

Recent times have seen an increase in Hezbollah’s attacks and counterattacks against Israel, casting uncertainty over the region’s future. International organizations such as the United Nations, as well as Western governments like Germany, France and the United States have made efforts to de-escalate the situation and prevent a full-scale war. However, there are big gaps in the negotiation talks and now Israeli military officials are speaking more loudly and open about war.

In a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, former Israeli Defence Minister and IDF Chief of Staff MK Benny Gantz said that the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution to cross-border violence is decreasing, making conflict more probable. On the other hand, neighbouring nations like Iran have backed Lebanon and issued stark warnings to Israel, threatening annihilation should they launch a full-scale attack. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nazala in his latest message said that in case of war his army would fight without restraints and without rules

Additionally, Iran-aligned Iraqi militias have declared a state of high alert, expressing their readiness to join Hezbollah in any conflict and threatening to target U.S. interests should Washington side with Israel. Moreover, Hezbollah’s warning against Cyprus should it support Israel in an attack on Lebanon by providing their airports intensified the situation as it threated an EU member state.

Hezbollah’s attacks on southern Israeli towns have significantly heightened tensions, with rocket sirens blaring and incoming missiles causing alarm. A drone fired from Lebanese Hezbollah injured 18 Israeli soldiers, one of the highest single casualty incidents since his below opened fire on October 8^th. This strategic tactic by Hezbollah which aims to inflict distress on the Israeli population situated in Northern Israel with more than 60,000 Israelis evacuating their homes, has caused Israel to reevaluate its strategy. This strategic tactic by Hezbollah which is looking at imposing pain on the Israeli population situated in Northern Israel with more than 60,000 Israelis evacuating their homes, making Israels Northen region unstable and unsafe Hezbollah is steadily making the region uninhabitable.  This tactic is prompting Israel to reconsider its strategy in order to avert further conflict. On the other side of the boarder, 90,000 Lebanese have also packed up and moved north far from the fires.

In response to the escalating tensions, the Israeli army has started deploying troops near the Lebanon border as part of military exercises simulating a potential conflict. Footage released by the army showcases the exercises, which aim to prepare for a possible full-scale war with Hezbollah. The Golani Brigade’s 12^th Brigade has conducted drills simulating combat in complex terrain, according to a military statement. The 55^th Reserve Paratroopers Brigade has also performed a series of exercises encompassing various combat scenarios, including manoeuvres in challenging terrains and advancing along mountainous routes demonstrating their commitment to preparedness in the face of escalating tensions.

Meanwhile, Lebanon has also been preparing for potential conflict. Saudi Arabia made a $10 million financial contribution to Lebanon on Tuesday, July 2, through the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre. Furthermore, Qatar has provided the Lebanese army with a new $20 million tranche of financial aid, demonstrating its sustained support for the military institution in the face of present circumstances.

 Hezbollah which was once seen as a poorly sourced militant group that could carry out occasional bombings and small hit and run attacks now holds capabilities associated with professional state militaries. Its fighting force now includes around 100,000 soldiers most of whom are battle hardened from Syria. It also possesses a stockpile of rockets and ballistic missiles as well as anti-air, anti-tank and anti-ship missiles which pose a genuine strategic threat to Israel such as the Fajr-5 which has a range of 75km, the Khaibar with a range of 100km and the Zelzal-1/2 with a range of 210km which can hit targets as far as Tel Aviv.

As tensions continue to escalate between Israel and Hezbollah, both sides are preparing for potential conflict while the international community watches with growing concern. The possibility of a war like the one seen in 2006 looms large, but Israel has warned that this time the consequences could be far more severe. The situation is further complicated the involvement of other Arab nations, who have expressed support for Lebanon, potentially widening the scope of conflict and adding more parties to the fray. A full-scale war between Hezbollah and Israel would be terrible for both, as seen by 8 months of convectional fighting in Gaza.

In addition, like Hamas, Hezbollah also has tunnel networks that run underground across Lebanon which are believed to be even more extensive than the ones used by Hamas.

In summary, the escalating tension is rapidly pushing towards all-out war, deteriorating security in the region. This escalation threatens to cause significant casualties and economic damage to both states, far outweighing any potential benefits of war. So far Israel and Hezbollah have kept the escalations within the current framework and have used the UN force in Lebanon as backdoor channel for dialogue, however, it is unclear how long this will continue.