Key Judgements The 2026 Munich Security Conference signalled that the post-Cold War model of European security dependence is eroding, as allies prepare for a future in which a US security guarantee cannot be assumed to be stable or unconditional. Emerging consultations among France, the...
Key Judgements On Tuesday 17th February, a joint-statement from the US and Philippines pledged additional deployments of missile and unmanned systems in the Philippines. The announcement, made following the annual US-Philippines Strategic Dialogue in Manila, reinforces the Philippine’s capacity to leverage distributed deterrence. As the Philippines...
Key Judgements The 30 January agreement between Syria’s interim government and the Kurdish-led SDF marks the most significant territorial consolidation since Assad’s fall, with government forces deploying to al-Hasakah and Qamishli for the first time in over a decade. Implementation hinges on three contested issues...
Key Judgements Russia continues to use energy dependency as a low-visibility influence mechanism across the Western Balkans, particularly in Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Energy pricing incentives and long-term gas agreements provide Moscow with structural political leverage rather than immediate coercive power. Messaging around “energy...
Key Judgements U.S. pressure to take control over Greenland triggered a major NATO internal conflict, prompting Operation Arctic Endurance, a coordinated NATO military exercise deployment to Greenland to deter escalation and signal alliance resolve. Washington frames its Greenland strategy around the $175 billion Golden Dome...
Key Judgements Tensions continue to rise in the South China Sea as China and the Philippines remain entangled in a maritime dispute amid legal standoff. The turn of the new year saw Filipino Coast Guard assets facing off a Chinese research vessel off the coast of...
Key Judgements Iran's security forces have killed at least 2,500-3,400 protesters during a violent crackdown on nationwide demonstrations that began in late December 2025, representing one of the deadliest protest suppressions in modern Iranian history and potentially precipitating a broader regional crisis. The crisis has...
Key Judgements Russian-linked Orthodox circles are being leveraged to disperse anti-European ideology within socially conservative areas. Religious legitimacy provides Russian-linked actors with a deniable influence mechanism Activity levels are directly correlated to key political events such as elections. Suggesting tolerance and potentially coordination from Russian-friendly...
Key Judgements Syria's interim government faces a critical December 31, 2025, deadline to integrate Kurdish SDF forces, threatening the fragile one-year-old political transition if negotiations fail. Lebanon's inability to disarm Hezbollah by the US-imposed December 31 deadline risks triggering renewed military conflict, with Israel conducting...
On 7th December the ceasefire deal between Thailand and Cambodia collapsed as heavy fighting broke out along the 817km border. This most recent and deadly phase of the conflict has resulted in at least 60 people killed and numerous more injured and displaced, with Thailand...