MS Risk Blog

Egypt Update

For the first time since 2011, most citizens of Egypt obeyed a 2100h curfew, following the deadliest day since the country’s uprisings began in 2011. The nation has declared a month-long state of emergency following the deadliest day since the start of the 2011 revolution, with curfews in effect in 14 of the 27 provinces.

Following the removal of Egyptian President and Muslim Brotherhood member Mohamed Morsi, Muslim Brotherhood and pro-Morsi supporters engaged in nearly six weeks of protest. Middle Eastern and Western diplomats attempted to negotiate a political resolution of inclusion, however the attempts failed and protesters remained firmly in place.

Interior Minister Mohamad Ibrahim declared “Zero Hour” yesterday morning (14 August), initializing a plan to remove pro-Morsi protesters from camps at Nahda Square in Giza, and the camp near Rabaa al-Adawiyah mosque in Cairo. Operations began at 7 a.m. local time, with security forces first allowing safe passage for protesters to leave the site voluntarily prior to the clearing operations. Nahda Square in Giza was cleared within three hours; the camp at Rabaa Al-Adawiyah Mosque took 12 hours.

In a televised statement, the Egyptian Interior Minister described a scene in which protesters in Rabaa camp had created barricades, and were armed with weapons ranging from small firearms to “heavy weapons and rocket-propelled grenades.”  Early in the day, over 200 protesters from both camps were arrested for possessing firearms, bladed weapons, grenades, and gas canisters. Ibrahim continued, “Many protesters fired excessively from roof tops on security forces.”

Violence Spreads

Egyptian police troops and anti-riot squads continued with the forcible removal of the protesters. Violence escalated as protesters accused the forces of firing into the crows, igniting a rapid escalation of violence. Throughout the day, mayhem spread across Egypt. Muslim Brotherhood supporters attacked several police stations, including firing a rocket-propelled grenade into a station in Kerdasa, in Giza. A news broadcast showed Muslim Brotherhood supporters pushing an armoured vehicle off Cairo’s October 6 Bridge onto the road below. In addition, at least seven Coptic Christian churches, and over 40 Coptic-owned or operated institutions throughout Egypt were targeted, including bookshops and pharmacies. Coptic rights organizations say the numbers are a low estimate.

By mid-afternoon, Muslim Brotherhood protesters had attacked the historic Library at Alexandria and the Malawy Museum in Minya, with reports of looting of some of its contents. The attacks sparked an immediate and indefinite shut-down of all ancient or historic sites and museums across the nation. All branches of the central bank were closed, and train services running north and south were suspended to prevent transport of protestors.

According to the Ministry of Health, by 7 am on the 15^th, there were 525 casualties, including 43 policemen, and 3,717 injuries. Representatives from the Muslim Brotherhood have placed the number of death at 2,000. Among those killed were three journalists: Mick Deane, 61, a cameraman for British broadcaster Sky News; Habiba Ahmed Abd Elaziz, 26, a reporter for the UAE-based Gulf News; and Ahmed Abdel Gawad of Egypt’s state-run newspaper, Al Akhbar. Deane and Elaziz were shot to death; however there is no information on how Gawad was killed.

Baradei Resigns

In Cairo, Interim Vice President El Baradei offered his resignation in protest to the violence sparked by the forcible removal of the protests. He had argued for a peaceful solution; allowing the protesters to remain in place and letting the gatherers decrease from attrition, as individuals became more resigned the reality that Morsi would not return, and they turn their focus to other issues, such as returning to work or finding means to support their family. In his resignation letter, he states, “It has become hard for me to keep bearing responsibility for decisions that I did not approve of and warned against their consequences. I cannot be responsible before God for a single drop of blood.”

The announcement caused very mixed reaction; some say the leader abandoned Egypt at a tough time. The Tamarod (rebel) campaign, which spearheaded the 30 June protests which resulted in Morsi’s removal from power, issued a statement on Facebook, calling El Baradei’s resignation an “escape from responsibility,” and adding, “We were hoping that El Baradei would do his role in explaining the situation to the global public opinion and international community and clarify that Egypt is facing organised terrorism, which highly endangers the Egyptian national security.” the statement read. Ahmed Darrag, a high ranking leader of El Baradei’s Constitution Party, denounced the decision and announced his resignation from the party.

Still others praised his decision. Khaled el-Masry, spokesman for the April 6 Youth Movement, says he “completely understands” the decision to resign from his post. In a statement, el-Masry said,
“El-Baradei has humanitarian biases as well as biases for justice and freedom that contradict bloodshed, especially if it happens while he is in a public post.”

International reaction

The military actions received international condemnation and warning. On Wednesday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned the violence used by Egyptian security forces to “in the strongest terms.” Through his spokesman, Eduardo del Buey, he said, “In the aftermath of today’s violence, the secretary-general urges all Egyptians to concentrate their efforts on promoting genuinely inclusive reconciliation. While recognizing that political clocks do not run backwards, the secretary-general also believes firmly that violence and incitement from any side are not the answers to the challenges Egypt faces.”

In a televised statement, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called the Egyptian military’s actions “deplorable” and ”counter to Egyptian aspirations for peace, inclusion and genuine democracy.” Michael Mann, a spokesman for EU Foreign Policy Chief Catherine Ashton said, “Violence won’t lead to any solution and we urge the Egyptian authorities to proceed with utmost restraint.”

Turkey President Erdogan has urged the UN Security Council and Arab League to act quickly: “It is clear that the international community, by supporting the military coup and remaining silent over previous massacres, has encouraged the current administration to carry out today’s intervention, instead of protecting democracy and constitutional legitimacy in Egypt.” Leaders from Iran have also warned of the risk of civil war.

The Egyptian Ambassador to the US called it “the least bad option.”

Since the initial uprising, police had largely and deliberately disappeared from the streets. As a result, Egyptians have complained about lax law and order, and an increase in criminal activity. However, since Mursi’s removal, the police have been more visible in the streets, while also implementing a public relations campaign to improve their image, despite Mursi’s failure to develop any police reform during his term in office. Ibrahim’s claim to restore security to the Mubarak era, while well-intended, brought reminders and fear of a notoriously oppressive security force.

Conclusion

The Muslim Brotherhood will not ended its protests, however it is likely that only hard-line protesters will remain resistant and active following the clashes of the 14^th. With the actions taken yesterday, the Egyptian government has essentially established a baseline for what it is willing to tolerate.

The scale of violence during the security operations is likely to have put an end to any hope negotiations between the army-backed government and the Muslim Brotherhood. In fact, allegations of violence on the part of the Brotherhood supporters could be used to reinstate a ban on the group, including its political arm, the Freedom and Justice Party. With less than 20% of Egyptians supporting the Muslim Brotherhood, it is most likely that outrage at this action would emanate from outside of Egypt, rather than inside, posing a threat from radicalised actors entering the nation and acting on behalf of the group.

In order for the existing government to remain effective, it is imperative not only to focus on the security situation, but the economy. Economic improvement, even with incremental change, will assure the Egyptian populace that conditions are trending upward. To many outside of Egypt, this struggle is abuot religious versus secular government. However at the root of the clashes is the dire need for economic stability at all levels of income. If the government is swift in enacting security, economic, and political reforms, internal confrontations are likely to decrease. Yet the threat will still remain in place from those who support the concept of an Islamist party-led nation.

Buddhist Mob Attacks Mosque in Sri Lanka

The Sri Lankan government says a solution has been found to the dispute that led to ethnic violence flaring in Columbo over the weekend, after a mob of Buddhists attacked a mosque and injured worshippers there. Special police units were deployed to deal with the unrest and a curfew was imposed. Despite the supposed resolution, serious security issues remain in light of simmering tensions between Sri Lanka’s majority Buddhist population and minority groups, and come in light of significant clashes between Muslims and Buddhists throughout parts of South East Asia over the past year.

Trouble began on Saturday, August 10^th, when a mob of Buddhists attacked a mosque in the Grandpass area of the capital, Columbo during evening prayers. Hundreds of local Muslims responded by taking to the streets, some armed with sticks, while the authorities sent in police reinforcements, including the Special Task Force commando unit, to try and maintain law and order. A curfew was imposed from Saturday evening until Sunday morning in order to disperse the crowds. 12 people were injured in the disturbances, including 2 police officers.

Muslim ministers in President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s government released a joint statement saying “The lukewarm and ineffective measures taken by law enforcement agencies on previous occasions…seem to have emboldened some extremist groups who seem determined to create chaos in the country”. Police Inspector General N K Ilangagoon called on the populace to “support the police to maintain law and order”. A spokesman for the Bodu Bala Sena (BBS) (or “Buddhist Power Force”), a hardline group that has been trying to win over Sri Lanka Buddhists to support its anti-Muslim campaign, denied his organisation had any involvement in the events.

The incident stems from a dispute surrounding the relocation of a mosque in the area. The old mosque was earmarked for destruction to make way for new construction and after protests from hard-line Buddhists, and the new mosque had only been open a month. It had already seen protests from Buddhist monks, who had however purportedly agreed Muslims could continue praying there throughout Ramadan. Muslims in the area say the Sri Lankan government’s religious affairs ministry had given them permission to continue using the site, and had provided special police protection. Following the weekend’s disturbances, a solution has been reached that allows a return to the site of the old mosque.

However, despite a resolution of this particular issue it is extremely unlikely this will see a reduction in the continuing ethnic disputes in Sri Lanka. The country is 70% Sinhalese Buddhists, with Muslims making up 9% of the population. They were seen as remaining broadly loyal to the state during the war with the Tamil Tigers; however attacks on Muslims have been increasing over the past year led by hard-line groups of monks such as the BBS, which promote an ultra-nationalist ideology that claims Muslims are fostering anti-Sinhalese extremism and attitudes. The president of the Sri Lanka Muslim Council says over 20 mosques have been attacked since last year, while recent months have seen major ethnic unrest surrounding the distribution of halal food and similar. Christian buildings and worshippers have also been attacked.

Muslim community leaders have so far remained broadly conciliatory and have stood on platforms with moderate Buddhists, while many Sinhalese express disquiet about the activities of the BBS. However, there is evidence that the strident nationalism the BBS promotes not only resonates with large parts of the population but enjoys top – level political support – powerful defence minister Gotabhaya Rajapaska (brother of the president), was a guest at the opening of a BBS training school and said in a speech “It is the monks who protect our country, religion and race. No one should doubt these clergy. We’re here to give you encouragement.”

The incidents in Sri Lanka also come in light of continuing ethnic trouble across the broader South East Asian region. Major ethnic violence continues in Myanmar (Burma) between the majority Rakhine Buddhist people and minority Rohingya Muslims which has left many dead and caused chaos across numerous provinces. Last month, a bombing at one of Buddhism’s holiest sites, the Bohd Gaya temple complex in India, was attributed to Islamist extremists and explicitly connected with the broader religious conflict across SE Asia.

Currently, there is no direct threat to individuals, including Muslim ones, in Sri Lanka. It is worth noting that no one has so far been killed due to the ethnic clashes in the country, unlike incidents in Myanmar. The underlying threat from terrorism in Sri Lanka is also currently low. However, an awareness of the potential security risks should be maintained at all times. Any and all demonstrations should be avoided, and local news stations should be monitored in case of unrest or the imposition of curfews.

Cisse Admits Defeat in Mali’s Presidential Elections

Mali’s presidential elections have been won by Ibrahim Boubacar Keita after his rival admitted defeat just one day after the second round of elections were held.

Although official results have not been announced, former Malian Finance Minister Soumaila Cisse conceded defeat against ex-Prime Minister (1994 – 2002) Keita on Monday, announcing that he had “went to see him to congratulate him and wish him good luck for Mali.”  His defeat  came hours after electoral and security sources had indicated that Mr. Keita had pulled ahead with two-thirds of the votes counted after Sunday’s second round of the election.  This was confirmed by Mr. Cisses’ spokesman, who indicated that his candidate had admitted defeat after it became clear the Mr. Keita had won the polls in Gao, which is the largest town in northern Mali.  Both Mr. Keita and Mr. Cisse had lost out in the 2002 presidential elections to Amadou Toumani Toure, who was overthrown by a military junta in March of last year, just weeks before the end of his final term in office.  Mr. Keita will now face the daunting task of rebuilding a country that is still reeling from more than a year of turmoil.

During weeks of campaigning, Mr. Keita became known for his blunt speech, his refusal to compromise and his reputation for toughness.  Throughout his campaign, he vowed to unify Mali if elected, stating that “for Mali’s honor, I will bring peace and security.  I will revive dialogue between all the sons of our nation and I will gather our people around the values that have built our history:  dignity, integrity, courage and hard work.”  His top priority will be to secure lasting peace for northern Mali, which has seen five violent rebellions since the country gained its independence from France in 1960.  The 68-year-old will now oversee more than US $4 billion (£2.6 billion) in foreign aid promised to rebuild the country after a turbulent eighteen months.  The new government which he will lead will also be obliged to open peace talks with the separatist Tuareg rebels within two months following a ceasefire that enabled voting to take place in the northern regions of the country.  Cementing national reconciliation will likely be a challenge for the newly formed government as many in the southern regions of the country continue to be hostile towards funneling more of Mali’s already scarce resources to a region they see as being responsible for the country’s plight.  In turn, there is a continued unease between a number of ethnic groups, not only between the north and south, but also within the north itself.

The European Union’s election observation mission has given the elections a positive assessments, stating that it complied with international standards in “99 percent” of Mali’s polling stations.  European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton has welcomed what she calls “a credible and transparent” election.  A statement released by her office also noted that the EU pledged to support efforts to “build a durable peace and restore national unity” in the West African country.  Meanwhile the United States has signaled that it was prepared to resume aid to Mali following the election.  Marie Harf, deputy spokeswoman at the State Department, hailed Mali’s interim government for “securing a peaceful and orderly environment in which Malians were able to vote,” further adding that “we’ve made clear that following the return of a democratically elected government, we will seek to normalize our foreign assistance to Mali.”  The United States was legally forces to suspend military aid to Mali after the coup in March of last year.

Vote-Counting Begins In Mali

Vote-counting in Mali is currently underway just one day after a presidential election run-off took place, which is expected to provide a fresh start to the troubled West African state.  The election, the first to occur since 2007, is seen as crucial in order to unlock more than US $4 billion in aid.

On Sunday, people throughout Mali made their way through heavy rain in order to vote in the presidential run-off that is aimed at restoring democracy and stability after more than a year of turmoil.  An electorate of seven million had the choice between former premier Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, who won 40% during the first round of voting, and ex-finance minister Soumaila Cisse, who won nearly 20% of the vote.  Mali’s 21,000 polling stations opened at 08:00 GMT and closed at 18:00 GMT.

Louis Michel, the head of the European Union’s election observation mission, has indicated that there was “absolutely nothing doubtful or suspicious to report” and that voting had taken place “in good conditions, in a serene, quiet atmosphere,” adding that “whoever is elected will be elected with democratic legitimacy.  That is my belief.”

The interim government has until this Friday to make the results of the run-off public, however some observers expect that an announcement may be made sooner.  Early signs have indicated that Mr. Keita will likely win the elections.  The country of more than 14 million remains the continent’s third-largest gold producer however its US $10.6 billion economy contracted by 1.2 percent last year as widespread poverty contributed to the unrest in the northern regions of the country last year.

Meanwhile in Somalia, reports have emerged that al-Shabaab militants have stolen £480,000 (US $750,00) worth of British government-funded humanitarian materials in supplies.  The supplies were in warehouses and were captured during a raid by al-Shabaab militants in 2011 and 2012, however no information on what particular supplies were stolen has been released.  The theft, which was revealed in the fine print of the Department for International Development’s (DFID) annual accounts, is likely to fuel concerns pertaining to how Britain is spending its foreign aid at a time when the country is experiencing budget cuts at home.

The accounts describe the “theft between November 2011 and February 2012, by al-Shabaab in southern Somalia, of DFID funded humanitarian materials and supplies from the offices and warehouses of partner or organizations, to which DFID had provided funding to deliver projects and programmes.”  The accounts further note that “the DFID’s partners had no prior warning of the confiscations being carried out and therefore had no time to prevent the loss by relocating goods.”  The loss, which comes out of more than £80 million of aid that was allocated to Somalia in 2012 – 2013, appears in this year’s accounts because the investigation was only completed in the past twelve months.

In response to the reports, Gerald Howarth, a lawmaker in Prime MInister David Cameroon’s Conservative party, has stated that the theft raised concerns about how this money was being spent, indicating that “there is a huge public concern at the relentless increase in overseas aid.  Incidents like this, where British taxpayers‘ money is diverted into people fighting agains us, re not acceptable.”

A spokesman for the DFID has stated that there are always risks with working in unstable countries such as Somalia, but that it was doing everything it could to stop such thefts from occurring.  A statement released by the DFID indicated that the company “works in some of the most dangerous places in the world, including Somalia, because tackling the root causes of poverty and instability there ensures a safer world and a safer UK.”  The statement further added that “working in conflict-affected and fragile states carries inherent risk.  DFID does all it can to mitigate against this but, on occasion, losses will occur.”

US Officials Order All Non-Essential Personnel To Leave Consulate in Pakistan

In response to a “credible threat,” the United States has ordered that all non-essential government personnel leave its consulate in the Pakistani city of Lahore amidst a worldwide alert over al-Qaeda intercepts.  A senior State Department official has stated that intelligence indicates that there is currently “credible threat” to the consulate and that all US personnel remaining in Lahore should limit non-essential travel within the country.  The move comes as Pakistan’s troubled south-western city of Quetta was hit by a second attack in two days as gunmen shot dead at least nine people outside a mosque on Friday.

Officials in Washington have urged that they have received intelligence of a specific threat to its diplomatic mission in Pakistan’s second-largest city, ordering all non-essential staff to  leave.  The warning comes just one day after the United States reiterated a travel warning, advising all US citizens to defer non-essential travel to Pakistan.  US officials have stated that “we are undertaking the drawdown due to concerns about credible threat information specific to the US Consulate in Lahore,” further noting that “an updated travel warning has also been issued,” adding that “US citizens remaining in Lahore…should limit non-essential travel within the country and be aware of their surroundings whether in their residences or moving about, and make their own contingency emergency plans.”  The travel warning also indicates that “the presence of several foreign and indigenous terrorist groups poses a potential danger to US citizens throughout Pakistan.”

It currently remains unclear when the consulate in Lahore will open again.  The US embassy and consulates in Karachi and Peshawar were closed Friday for the Eid public holiday however they are expected to open again on Monday.  Earlier this week, the US closed nineteen other diplomatic missions throughout the Middle East and Africa in response to what it said was a threat of a terrorist attack.  The diplomatic outposts are expected to be closed to the public until Saturday.  Non-essential personnel were also evacuated from the US embassy in Yemen after US intelligence officials stated that they had intercepted a recent message from al-Qaeda’s top leader about plans for a major terror attack.  None of the consulates in Pakistan, nor the US embassy in Islamabad, were affected by the earlier closures.  Consequently it seems that the most recent evacuation in Lahore was undertaken as a precautionary measure and is not related to the closure of the other diplomatic missions.

Meanwhile authorities in Pakistan have placed the capital city on a state of high alert, with extra precautionary measures being placed on key Pakistan government installations.  Britain has also placed travel warnings for Pakistan, however these are for specific locations and do not include Lahore or the capital.  The UK Foreign Office has stated that it had yet to decide whether staff would be withdrawn from the British Council Office in Lahore however it did note that it was closely monitoring the current situation, stating that “we keep security measures and travel advice under constant review.”

In Quetta, Pakistan on Friday, worshippers were gunned down as they left prayers for Eid al-Fitr, the festival marking the end of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan.  The month of Ramadan was marred this year by at least eleven attacks which killed some 120 people.  The day before, a suicide bomber struck at a police funeral in the city on Thursday, killing thirty eight people in an attack that was claimed by the Taliban.