MS Risk Blog

Suspected Chemical Weapons Use in Syria

22 August, 2013: Syrian opposition forces have made claims that the Assad government has conducted a massive chemical weapons attack in the East Ghouta region outside of Damascus, resulting in unconfirmed death tolls ranging from the hundreds to over 1,400. Rebel forces claim that rockets with toxic agents were launched early on Wednesday as part of a major bombardment. Limited evidence based on early testimony, photography and video has concluded that the reports are accurate. If the scale of the attack is confirmed, this incident could mark the largest chemical weapons attack since the 1988 Halabja Massacre in Iraq.

Still and video imagery taken from the region of the attack depict gruesome images of rooms full of dead children, and images of young victims twitching and struggling to breath. Close-up images reveal severely constricted pupils. Experts believe that it would be nearly impossible to fake so many dead and injured, including children and babies. The symptoms appear to be in line with use of the chemical weapon sarin.

Was it Sarin?

Sarin is a man-made liquid that can be converted to gas. It was originally developed as a pesticide in Germany in 1938, but is now classified as a nerve agent. Of the known agents used in chemical warfare, nerve agents are the most toxic and fast acting. In liquid form, pure sarin is a clear, colourless, tasteless, and odourless. It mixes easily with water, which could result in contamination of drinking water or foods grown in areas exposed to the agent. However, sarin can be evaporated into vapour (sarin gas), which can be released and spread into the environment, exposing people through breathing air, or exposing the agent to skin or eyes. Sarin is a heavy gas, meaning it is likely to settle in low-lying areas, creating greater risk exposure for individuals in low lying areas. Following exposure to sarin vapour, a person’s clothing absorbs and can release sarin, resulting in the possible exposure of the gas to others.  Exposure to large doses of sarin can cause convulsions, loss of consciousness, paralysis, and respiratory failure, possibly leading to death.

Doctors treating patients in the area have reported that the chemical solution contained “extremely high” concentrations of sarin, as opposed to more diluted attacks in previous months. The director of the Douma city medical office, calling himself Khaled ad-Doumi, stated “Atropine, the chemical used to curb the effects of these chemical attacks, has had only limited effects.” However, Gwyn Winfield, editor for a trade journal dedicated to unconventional weapons, does not believe that pure sarin was involved. After examining video and still images, Winfield noted the lack of mucus or saliva, stating “No doubt it’s a chemical release of some variety — and a military release of some variety … But it’s too weak for a pure sarin release.”

Still others do not believe that a nerve agent was released, but do agree that the attack was a chemical one.  Michael Ellman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies says,  an attack on this scale “would have had to involve a large amount of chemical agent, which means it would have had to be delivered in a very deliberate fashion, and that would be a strong indicator that it was deliberate use or not accidental use, or just spraying munitions, which may be what happened in the past – we don’t know.”

The Red Line

One year ago, the Obama administration declared a “red line” at the use of chemical weapons. In July 2012, the Syrian government admitted that Syria had stocks of chemical weapons. Opposition parties have accused the Assad regime of chemical weapons use on multiple occasions, however only a few of those attacks have been confirmed. Despite the evidence that chemical weapons were used, the US government has remained hesitant to engage in full-scale conflict over what they consider relatively small-scale incidents. The failure to react to these smaller incidents has ignited criticism from within the US government. Democrat Eliot Engel of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said, “If we are to salvage what remains of our credibility in the region, we must act soon.”

However, an attack on this scale could trigger outside intervention. UK Foreign Secretary William Hague said that if confirmed, the attacks indicate a “shocking escalation in the use of chemical weapons in Syria.” The US and UK, along with 33 UN member states, have called for a formal United Nations investigation.

A statement from U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon assured that a UN chemical weapons team in Damascus was discussing the matter with Syrian authorities. Chief U.N. Weapons Inspector Ake Sellstrom arrived in Syria on 18 August to investigate the alleged use of nerve gas in three other villages, including Khan al-Assal, where 26 people were killed in March. But it is unlikely that Syria will allow investigators to visit the East Ghouta region.

Stalemate

Timeliness is critical. The half-life of sarin gas is approximately 5 minutes, and other chemical weapons have a half life of approximately 30 minutes. Traces of the gas could disappear within days, and a delay in investigations means evidence of their dispersal methods could be removed. Still, while chemical experts may be able to identify the nature of the weapons used in the region, they will be unable to determine the party responsible for the attack. Some have questioned if the finding will still result in a net-zero impact.

The Syrian regime has called claims of the attack “absolutely baseless,” and insisted that the rebels either initiated the attack, or are lying to cover the number of losses they have recently experienced. Within the UN, member nations have reached a stalemate on actionable impact. China and Russia blocked the used of strong press statements condemning the Syrian government. The Russian foreign ministry has pointed out that the report coincided with the arrival the UN chemical weapons inspection team to Syria, saying, “This makes us think that we are once again dealing with a premeditated provocation.” In the past, China and Russia have vetoed UN efforts to impose penalties on Assad.

A watered down statement has been released by the UN, calling for a cessation of hostilities throughout Syria, where over 100,000 people have been killed in the past 28 months. It is uncertain how findings by UN weapons inspectors will impact international action in the region.

Doubts Emerge Over Death of Boko Haram Leader

Doubts have emerged this week over the Nigerian military’s claims that the leader of Islamist extremist group Boko Haram may have been killed.  Questions have been raised over the timing of the announcement, which came on the day that the Joint Task Force (JTF) concluded its work and handed over its duties to a newly created military division that has been charged with the battle to end Boko Haram’s four-year insurgency.

On Monday, a security task force in north-eastern Nigeria issued a statement indicating that Abubakar Shekau, who was declared a “global terrorist” by the United States, “may have died” from a gunshot wound after a clash with soldiers on Jun 30.”  The statement further noted that “it is greatly believed that Shekau may have died between 25 July to 3 August 2013” after being taken over the border into Amitchide in neighboring Cameroon.  The statement also indicated that an intelligence report suggests that Shekau was shot when soldiers raided a Boko Haram base at Sambisa Forest in north-eastern Nigeria.

However by Tuesday, local media reported that there had been increasing unease within the military pertaining to the claims.  Task force spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Sagir Musa declined to comment when contacted about the statement, indicating only that he had left Maiduguri, which is the epicentre of Boko Haram’s insurgency and where the force was based.  National defence spokesman Brigadier General Chris Olukolade has also distanced himself from the statement.  Some sources have indicated that senior members within the military were unhappy with the release of the statement as there was not yet enough evidence to make such claims and that intelligence was still being analyzed.

Claims of Shekau’s death come one week after the Nigerian military stated that on 14 August, it had killed Boko Haram’s second-in-comment, Momodu Bama, also known by his alias “Abu Saad.”  However so far, there have been confirmations relating to his death.  In turn, a video message released on 12 August depicted a man who appeared to be Shekau, who insisted that he was in good health.  He had also referred to attacks which had occurred in early August.  The military statement released on Monday however has specified that the video was a fake.  So far there have been no independent confirmations pertaining to this video.

Washington’s response to these latest claims have come with the US State Department stating that it had seen the reports pertaining to Shekau and that it was currently “working to ascertain the facts,” nothing that he had already been falsely reported dead in 2009.  US State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf added that “he is the most visible leader of Boko Haram, and if his death turns out to be true, the loss of such a central and well-known figure would set back Boko Haram’s operations and remove a key voice from its efforts to mobilize violent extremists in Nigeria and around the world.”

Shekau has been considered the leader of Boko Haram ever since the terrorist group’s founder Muhammad Yusuf, died in 2009 while in police custody.  Since taking over, the terrorist group’s insurgency has seen a violent turn, with thousands being killed in attacks that have been carried out on school children, teachers the UN, the police, north-eastern traditional leaders, journalists, mobile phone towers and ordinary Nigerians going about their lives.  In March of this year, the United States placed a US $7 million (5.3 million euro) bounty on his head.  If these most recent claims of Abubakar Shekau’s death are confirmed, his passing will likely represent a significant moment in the future of the terrorist group, however it is unlikely that Boko Haram will end its violence in the northern regions of the Nigeria.  Instead, this may fuel further retaliatory attacks that will likely target political and security officials along with military bases.  Furthermore, the group has a number of factions, such as al-Qaeda-linked Ansaru, which has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping and killing of a number of Westerners.  Such factions are believed to operate independently and any confirmations of Shekau’s death will likely result in retaliatory kidnappings and attacks that will be linked to his death.

Korean Peninsula Calm as War Games Begin

Annual joint military exercises between the American and South Korean (Republic of Korea, or ROK) armed forces began yesterday, the 19^th of August, in an atmosphere of surprising calm on the Korean peninsula. These war games have often seen strident criticism from the ROK’s secretive neighbour North Korea (the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, or DPRK) in the past. Particularly given the drastic escalation of tensions that occurred earlier this year, the relative inexperience of the DPRK’s new leader Kim Jong-Un, and the unpredictable nature of the DPRK itself, the exercises had been seen as a potential flashpoint. While some North Korean rhetoric condemning the exercises has emerged in the past hour, it is noticeably milder than usual and seemingly indicates the DPRK’s current preference for a resumption of diplomatic talks.

The exercises, named Ulchi Freedom Guardian, involve 30’000 American and 50’000 South Korean troops. These computer simulated war games will continue until the 30^th of August, according to the ROK’s defence ministry and the US military command in Seoul. These annual exercises are of a primarily defensive nature according to Kim Min-seok, a spokesman for ROK defence ministry “Ulchi Freedom Guardian…is a joint exercise by South Korea and the United States to prepare for possible provocation from North Korea. The Korean peninsula is under constant threat from the North and the joint exercise is indispensable to maintaining stability” while ROK president Park Guen-hye cited the drills as vital for South Korea’s “readiness posture”.

In previous years, North Korea has acted extremely aggressively to these exercises, denouncing them in media statements and suggesting they are preparation for an invasion. During the extreme escalation of tensions on the peninsula in spring, Pyongyang threatened retaliation with nuclear weapons if US-South Korean war games went ahead. In the build-up to these well publicised exercises however, the atmosphere remained calm. This morning, the North Korean Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea belatedly released a statement via state media condemning the drills as a “provocation” and threated South Korea with unspecified consequences.

However, this rhetoric is extremely mild by North Korean standards, particularly in light of Pyongyang’s behaviour earlier this year. During that period, in response to increased UN sanctions in light of its nuclear weapons program, the DPRK severed communication links with the south, made almost daily threats of nuclear annihilation, and moved military hardware such as missiles towards the coastal regions, placing nations throughout East Asia on alert.

Since then however, tensions have begun to calm, with the resumption of talks between the two Koreas beginning. The countries are working towards reopening the joint Kaesong industrial park, which has North Korean workers and South Korean managers. The park is seen as an important barometer of relations between the countries, and was closed earlier this year. A possible re-opening would be a notable conciliatory gesture from the North, though one not without self-interest, as the park provides a much needed source of hard currency for the impoverished DPRK.  Pyongyang also agreed on Sunday to talks about reuniting families separated by the end of the Korean War in 1953, another measure that was seen as a key inter-Korea cooperation project. Lastly, the DPRK is also angling for a resumption of South Korean tourist tours of Diamond Mountain, suspended since the shooting of a South Korean woman by a North Korean soldier in 2008 and also a much needed source of foreign currency for the DPRK.

As such, it currently appears that the North has chosen to take a calm approach to the current exercises in order to facilitate much needed diplomatic gains. This is a common practice in DPRK foreign policy – a rapid escalation of tensions featuring apocalyptic threats is followed by equally sudden de-escalation, with the promise of talks on diplomatic issues used as leverage to extract developmental aid and other concessions. The DPRK’s mild behaviour and current easing of tensions is likely a manifestation of this trend.

West Africa Piracy Report

Hijacks

• 12 August 2013 – About 11 pirates armed with guns boarded and hijacked a Marshall Islands-flagged chemical tanker, the SP Atlanta, at anchor at 0330 LT in Lagos Anchorage, Nigeria.  They stole the crew members personal belongings and caused minor injuries to those on board the tanker.  Update (13 August 2013) – The vessel was released and safely arrived at Lagos anchorage.  No further details have been released.

Unsuccessful Attacks/Robberies

• 15 August 2013 – About 8 – 10 robbers in a speed boat tried to place a hook to the railings of a chemical tanker at 0240 UTC at Lagos anchorage, Nigeria.  Robbers were spotted by the crew and the alarm was raised.  Other ships were informed on the VHF Radio.  Local authorities were informed and a naval patrol arrived at the location and conducted a search, resulting in the boat moving away from the vessel.  The vessel has been reported safe.
• 12 August 2013 – Nigeria-flagged OSV came under attack at 2140 UTC, about 35 nautical miles off the Nigerian Coast.  Two gunboats with approximately 7 – 8 pirates on board fired upon the OSV.  A patrol boat was in the location and responded to the emergency calls.  Patrol boat exchanged fire with the pirates.  Pirate boats then headed north at a high speed.
• 11 August 2013 – Robbers in a small skiff approached an anchored Liberia-flagged product tanker, FPMC 25, at 0005 LT, Lagos anchorage, Nigeria.  Master raised the alarm and all crew members were mustered into the citadel.  The armed security team on board the vessel fired warning shots, resulting in the skiff moving away.
• 31 July 2013 (Late Report) – Robbers boarded an anchored Cayman Islands UK-flagged bulk carrier, the Athos, at 2300 LT while in Abidjan anchorage, Cote d’Ivoire.  The robbers used a long pole with a hook in order to board the vessel.  The crew members on board the bulk carrier spotted the robbers and raised the alarm.  Upon hearing this, the robbers escaped on a wooden boat.  All crew has been reported safe and nothing was stolen.
• 30 July 2013 (Late Report) – A gunboat claiming to be a Nigerian boat called a Hong-Kong-flagged chemical tanker, the High Jupiter, on VHF, requesting details of the tanker, cargo, last and next ports.  The call was made at 1345 LT while the tanker was about 45 nautical miles south of Brass, Nigeria.  This information was passed to the gun boat.  Around fifteen minutes later, the gun boat approached the tanker at a high speed, demanding that the tanker stop and permit boarding.  The Master informed that he would not be stopping as the area was a high risk for piracy attacks.  The gunboat threatened and followed the tanker for 20 minutes during which two shots were fired in the air.  The Master of the chemical tanker raised the alarm over VHF and requested ships in the vicinity to relay its message to port control which was not responding to its calls.  Upon hearing the VHF alarm, the gunboat moved away from the chemical tanker.  The tanker and its crew members has been reported safe.

 Weather Analysis

• Gulf of Guinea – South-southwest winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.

• Extended Forecast – South-southwest winds of 10 – 15 knots and seas of 4 – 6 feet.

• Synoptic Discussion – The Gulf of Guinea is under the influence of high and low pressure systems, bringing strong southerly winds and moisture into the area.  Expect mostly cloudy conditions with rain showers and possible thunderstorms.

Keita Officially Announced as President Of Mali

Officials in Mali have announced that Ibrahim Boubacar Keita is the new leader, confirming that the ex-Prime Minister had won a landslide victory.

Figures for Sunday’s second round of voting were announced on live television by the Interior Minister, showing that Mr. Keita had won an overwhelming 77.6 percent of the vote, with his rival Soumalia Cisse gaining 22.4 percent.  According to Interior Minister Sinko Coulibaly, the turnout for the presidential elections was recorded at 45.8 percent, while just 93,000 ballots were spoiled, compared with 400,000 in the first round.  Former Finance Minister Cisse had already conceded the run-off vote to Mr. Keta after it became apparent on Monday morning that victory was beyond his grasp.  The 68-year-old will now oversee more than US $4 billion (£2.6 billion) in foreign aid promised to rebuild the country after a turbulent eighteen months.  The new government which he will lead will also be obliged to open peace talks with the separatist Tuareg rebels within two months following a ceasefire that enabled voting to take place in the northern regions of the country.  Cementing national reconciliation will likely be a challenge for the newly formed government as many in the southern regions of the country continue to be hostile towards funneling more of Mali’s already scarce resources to a region they see as being responsible for the country’s plight.  In turn, there is a continued unease between a number of ethnic groups, not only between the north and south, but also within the north itself.

While these elections are expected to provide the conflict-scarred nation a fresh start, Mr. Keita’s regime begins already mired in controversy after it emerged on Wednesday that Captain Amadou Sanogo, who led a group of fellow mid-level officers to overthrow then-president Amadou Toumani Toure on March 22 of last year, had been promoted.  Just two days after Ibrahim Boubacar Keita emerged as Mali’s president-elect, a defence ministry spokesman confirmed that “today, the cabinet approved the nomination of Captain Amadou Sanogo for the grade of Lieutenant-General.”  Human Rights Watch (HRW) has described Sanogo’s elevation from captain to the rank of lieutenant-general as “outrageous,” further adding that “Sanogo and forces loyal to him have been implicated in extremely serious abuses, including arbitrary detention, enforced disappearances, attacks against journalists and torture.”  Most of these crimes were committed during 2012 in the months after the March coup d’etat.  The HRW also noted that “instead of being rewarded with this promotion, Sanogo should have been investigated for his alleged involvement in these acts.”