MS Risk Blog

Loya Jirga Debates US-Afghan Security Pact Amidst Tensions

Beginning yesterday, the Loya Jirga, a council of Afghan tribal elders and other influential individuals, is currently considering the proposed pact between the United States and Hamid Karzai’s government regarding the future of foreign troops in Afghanistan. While the Loya Jirga is widely expected to approve the pact, negotiations over the security arrangement have exposed the serious divides and tensions between the US and the Afghan government. Similar issues torpedoed the proposed pact between the US and Iraq, leading to the eventual withdrawal of all foreign combat troops in 2012.

The Loya Jirga consists of 2500 senior Afghan figures, including tribal elders, politicians, civil servants and NGO representatives. While its decision is not normally binding, President Karzai has announced that the security pact will only be signed if ratified by both the Loya Jirga and the Afghan parliament. The meeting will continue for four days, after which the delegates will vote. Currently, the delegates have split into many smaller sections to discuss and debate the pact. Reports from the scene suggest that while some of these debates are peaceful, others are extremely heated, and a small number of delegates have left the Loya Jirga in protest already. Nevertheless, the Loya Jirga is still expected to approve the decision, and subsequently the Afghan parliament will likely rubber stamp the pact. A rejection of the pact would likely see the complete withdrawal of ISAF forces at the end of 2014.

President Karzai appears have called the Loya Jirga in an effort to shift responsibility for the decision away from himself – the continuing presence of foreign troops in Afghanistan is extremely unpopular with significant sections of the Afghan populace. Another recent move by Karzai would have the pact signed by his Presidential successor following elections next year, something else that would likely protect his own position and has strained relationships with Washington.

The whole process of negotiating and signing the pact has in fact exposed the divides between the United States and Karzai’s government. The US wanted the pact signed by the end of last month, and continues to maintain that it’s timetable requires an agreement by the end of 2013. Particularly problematic areas have included criminal jurisdiction over American troops, and the ability of ISAF forces to enter Afghan homes without consulting Afghan authorities. Karzai’s relationship with Washington overall has been extremely problematic – the President’s frequent criticism of ISAF forces and about-turns on policy have created problems, while Karzai himself has often been placed in awkward situations domestically caused by the actions of US forces, such as in causing the deaths of civilians. The President recently announced that there was “no trust” between Washington and himself.

While the Taliban has rejected the Loya Jirga, and attacked a previous one in 2011, no attacks directed against the meeting have occurred amidst extremely high security in Kabul. However, last week, a bombing directed at the compound prior to the delegate’s arrival killed ten. The security implications of the Loya Jirga are more long term – the government of Afghanistan remains reliant on foreign aid, and would find it extremely difficult to support its security apparatus if relations with Washington disintegrated. The successful signing of the security pact is a key part of preserving this relationship for the next decade.

French Priest Kidnapped in Northern Cameroon; Another French Hostage Flees His Captors

On Thursday, the French Foreign Ministry confirmed that a French priest had been kidnapped in northern Cameroon, close to the border with Nigeria, nine months after Nigerian Islamists kidnapped a family in the same border region.  Reports now indicate that Father Georges Vandenbeusch had time to alert the French embassy prior to being kidnapped by militants overnight on Thursday.

Father Georges Vandenbeusch, 42, was seized near Koza, about 30 kilometers (19 miles) from the border with Nigeria, during the early morning hours on Thursday.  According to Paris-based bishop Monseigneur Gerard Daucourt, who is in charge of the priest, fifteen gunmen burst into the compound in Nguetchewe, where the priest had been working, demanding money.  According to the bishop, Mr. Vandenbeusch had time to alert the French embassy by phone before the gunmen stormed his private room.  His abductors then marched him barefoot across the village before felling on their motorcycles.  Monseigneur Daucourt has also indicated that the priest’s suitcase was found a road that leads into Nigeria with only a checkbook in it.  According to a nun who worked with Mr. Vandenbeusch at the compound, the gunmen were speaking in English and had arrived on foot.

Agustine Fonka Awa, governor of the Far North region, has since travelled to Nguetchewe along with security forces in order to investigate the kidnapping however he has stated that the priest has likely already been taken across the border into Nigeria.  According to officials in Nigeria, the Far North region of Cameroon has been used by Boko Haram militants in order to transport weapons and to hide from the six-month ongoing military offensive against them.  Officials in Aubja last week appealed to Cameroon to tighten security along the border as the porous region has enabled Boko Haram militants to easily launch attacks and to go into hiding.

Mr. Vandenbeusch is likely to have been targeted by militants as he was known to help Nigerians flee attacks carried out by Boko Haram.  An official at the Paris prosecutor’s office has confirmed that an investigation has been opened into the “kidnapping and illegal confinement by a group linked to a terrorist organization.”  France’s Foreign Ministry has also indicated that so far no group has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping however it is believed that members of either Boko Haram or Ansaru, militant groups known to operate in the region, are likely behind the abduction.  France’s Foreign Ministry are currently in the process of establishing the identity of the kidnappers.

The kidnapping of the Roman Catholic priest occurred near the area where another French family had been abducted earlier this year.  Seven members, four of them children under the age of twelve, of the Moulin-Fournier family were kidnapped by Islamist militants near Cameroon’s northern Waza National Park, which likes just a few kilometers from the Nigerian border, in February of this year.  They were taken over the border into neighboring Nigeria and held hostage for two months.  Despite officials from France and Cameroon denying that a ransom payment was made, a confidential report from the Nigerian government indicated that Boko Haram, who was responsible for the kidnapping, had received a ransom payment of US $3.15 million (£2 million) before releasing the family.  Similarly last month, the French media reported that a €20 million ransom payment had been paid in order to secure the release of four French hostages who were abducted in Niger in 2010.  This allegation has strongly been denied by the French government.

Mr. Vandenbeusch’s abduction is the latest in a series of attacks on French targets in West Africa ever since the country launched a military intervention in January to remove al-Qaeda-linked militants from the northern region of Mali.  The latest kidnapping of a French national also comes at a time when France has over the pat month both celebrated the release of four hostages and mourned the killing of two journalists.  On 29 October, President Francois Hollande confirmed the release of four French hostages who were kidnapped in Niger in 2010.  The hostages had been held in northern Mali by Islamist militants.  While their return to France was seen as a victory, their release was marred when just days later on 2 November two French journalists working for Radio France Internationale (RFI) were killed in Mali by militants claiming to represent al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).  According to the militants, the killings were in retaliation for France’s ongoing operation in Mali however security experts have since stated that the killings were the result of a failed kidnapping attempt when the militants‘ vehicle broke down, forcing them to kill the hostages amidst fears that they would be tracked down by French forces.  The recent incidents have also sparked an urgent call French President Francois Hollande, asking all French citizens not to put themselves in harm’s way.  While France’s Foreign Ministry had previously categorized the northern region of Cameroon as a high risk for kidnapping, warning any citizens in the area to leave immediately, reports have now indicated that Mr. Vandenbeusch had repeatedly ignored those warnings.  According to French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, “he had been told several times that the area is dangerous….We had expressly advised him not to stay on but he though he should remain there.”  Mr. Vandenbeusch arrived in Cameroon in 2011, having previously been a priest in the Paris suburb of Sceaux.

French Hostage Escapes After Nearly One Year in Captivity

Meanwhile another French hostage, Francis Collomp, who was held by Islamist militants in northern Nigeria for nearly a year, is free after reportedly escaping during a shoot-out.

Reports have indicated that Mr. Collomp had managed to escape from his cell during an army operation that was carried out against the militants.  A source close to the case has indicated that Mr. Collomp fled after his cell door was left open.  He then hailed a taxi which took him to the police, from where he was brought to Kaduna.  According to Femi Adenaike Adeleye, the police commissioner in the regional capital of Kaduna, Mr. Collomp escaped in the northern city of Zaria on Saturday while his captors were praying,” adding that “he watched his captors’ prayer time.  They always prayed for 15 minutes.  And yesterday they did not lock the door to his cell.”  The commissioner further added that Mr. Collomp had been held in the city of Kano after his abduction and that he had been brought to Zaria about two months ago.

On Sunday, French President Francois Hollande has thanked Nigeria’s authorities for helping secure the release of Francis Collomp, 63, in the northern city of Zaria.  Mr. Collomp left Abuja on a flight to Paris late on Sunday.  He was accompanied by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius.  Didier Le Bret, the head of the French foreign ministry’s crisis centre, indicated that Mr. Collomp was “weakened” but in good enough health to travel.”  He is expected to arrive in Paris around 6:00AM (0500 GMT) on Monday, where he will be met by French Prime Minsiter Jean-Marc Ayrault.

Mr. Collomp was kidnapped on 19 December 2012 by about thirty armed men who attacked the residence of his employer, French wind turbine manufacturer Vergnet, in the northern Nigerian state of Katsina. The kidnapping, which left two bodyguards and a bystander dead, was claimed by Ansaru, a militant group linked to Boko Haram.

At Least Seven Remain

With the release of Mr. Collomp, and four other French hostages earlier this month, at least seven French hostages are still being held captive abroad.

Mali

• On 24 November 2011, Frenchmen Serge Lazarevic and Philippe Verdon are kidnapped from their hotel in Hombori, northeastern Mali, while on a business trip.  Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) claimed responsibility on December 9.  Mr. Verdon was killed earlier this year.  His death was confirmed by French officials.
• On 20 November 2012 – Gilberto Rodriguez Leal, a Portuguese-born French citizen, is abducted by at least six armed men in Diema, western Mali, while travelling by car from Mauritania.  On 22 November, al-Qaeda-linked Islamist rebel group the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) claimed responsibility for the kidnapping.

Cameroon/Nigeria

• 14 November 2013 Roman Catholic priest Georges Vandenbeusch abducted from his home near the town of Koza in northern Cameroon, about 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border with Nigeria.

Syria

• 6 June 2013 two French journalists, Didier Francois from Europe 1 Radio and Edouard Elias, an independent photographer working for the same station, are reported missing in Syria.  The office of French President Francois Hollande indicated that the pair were intercepted by unknown kidnappers at a checkpoint while travelling towards Aleppo.
• 9 October 2013 – The capture of reporter Nicolas Henin and Photographer Pierre Torres is announced by their families and the French Foreign Ministry.  The two men were kidnapped on June 22 while working in the northern city of Raqqa.  None of the armed groups fighting for control of the town have claimed responsibility, nor have any demands been made.

Security Update – Egypt

Egyptian courts have ruled that the national state of emergency ended at 4 pm on Tuesday 14 November. Curfews that have been in place since 14 August have been lifted. The curfew was in place shortly following the removal of former president Mohamed Morsi; economists are hopeful that the lifting of the curfew will result in a critical resurgence to the economy. Both the state of emergency and curfew were intended to last a month, however the government extended it for two more months on September 12. According to the Egyptian law, the government cannot extend a curfew beyond a three month period.

The Egyptian government is also in the process of drafting legislation to regulate demonstrations. To many activists, this is seen as a danger to their right to civil protests. The draft is currently in the hands of Interim President Adly Monsour, who in the absence of a parliament is the sole voice to decide on the issue.

Though the numbers have dwindled considerably, Morsi supporters have persisted in continuing demonstrations. On 11 November, protestors clashed with security forces at two universities north of Cairo on Tuesday. In Mansoura, four people were wounded in the clashes that also involved local residents. In Zagazig, five people were wounded clashes. Morsi, whose trial was delayed until January, remains in solitary confinement, reportedly at Burg el Arab prison in Alexandria. The former president will stand trial in connection to the killing of protesters outside of the presidential palace in December.

Meanwhile, Egyptians are awaiting a referendum on a new constitution, to take place in December. A 50- member committee has been tasked with evaluating and redesigning the current constitution, and have worked toward eliminating repressive passages, including restrictions on church construction. During Morsi’s tenure in office, he and his constitutional assembly, which were predominantly members of his Muslim Brotherhood party, developed a largely Islamist constitution, including a law that would make shari’a law, the Islamic legal system, applicable to the whole of Egypt.

Members of the Coptic Church, who comprise approximately 10% of the population, have felt that under the leadership of Morsi, the Christian population became increasingly marginalised. Following the removal of Morsi, the population was heavily targeted by Morsi supporters, including the destruction of Coptic owned properties and businesses.

Currently, the constitution has been redrafted to become increasingly secular. The committee eliminated a restriction that required Egypt’s Christians to obtain a presidential permit to build, repair or even renovate a church. Committee member Mohamed Abul-Ghar said, “Under a liberal constitution, all Egyptians, particularly Christians, must be allowed to build their own places of worship freely”. Still other proposals include suggestions to ban all political parties based upon religion.

Egypt is working to boost the economy with a tender for the development of the Suez Canal by the end of the month, in an effort to boost an economy struggling with political turmoil since 2011.

A spokesman for the project said, “No country is taking the lead, it is an Egyptian project and we are going to finalize the first stage by finalizing this tender by the end of this month.” Currently, Egypt’s economy benefits from about $5 billion a year in tolls for using the canal.

In addition, Egypt is also planning to launch an international tender in January to build its first nuclear power station. The development was announced on 14 November before talks with Russian officials on cooperation between the two countries. Egypt has suffered heavy fuel shortages since the 2011 uprising, which have placed a on power generating capabilities to the 85 million strong population, forcing power cuts and prompting energy-intensive industries to buy electricity from private suppliers at high prices. Former Trade and Industry Minister Hatem Saleh said in April that Russia had agreed to help Egypt develop atomic energy.

On 14 November, Russian and Egyptian senior officials met in Egypt to discuss military and economic cooperation between the two nations. While Egyptian officials have said that Egypt is not turning away from the United States, the meeting is a signal that the Egyptian government has options, with ties to Russian government going back several decades.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy downplayed speculation of a major foreign policy shift, saying, “We seek to energize a relationship that is already in existence,” and adding that Egypt is not looking for a “substitute for anyone”; Russia is too significant for such a role. Fahmy called the meeting an “activation” of existing ties and spoke of cooperation between the two countries “in multiple fields.”However the Egyptian government has expressed interest in purchasing Russian weaponry, in particular air defence missile systems and MiG-29 fighter jets, combat helicopters and other weapons. While there is speculation of how Egypt will afford the price tag of these items, an unnamed Egyptian military general close to army leadership said Egypt was close to signing a $2 billion deal with Russia for the purchase of 24 MiG fighter-jets as well as anti-tank missiles and an air-defence system.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shogiu, who vowed to develop military ties and increase bilateral contacts, said, “I expect to continue a constructive dialogue on the entire spectrum of military and military-technical issues.”

It is likely that the weaponry requested by Egypt is in an effort to continue pursuit of extremist networks, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula. Since the removal of Morsi on 3 July, the region has seen a significant increase in violence, particularly aimed at security forces. On Tuesday, Officer Tareq Mohamed Zaki was gunned down in North Sinai as he left a police station in Arish.

A security cordon has been placed around the police station to hunt down the attackers. Since July, hundreds of police and military troops have been targeted. The Egyptian army has responded with what military experts are calling the largest military operation on the peninsula since Egypt’s 1973 war with Israel, with the aim of combating “militancy and terrorism.”

Two US Sailors Freed; US State Department Designates Boko Haram Terrorist Group

Two American sailors, who were kidnapped off a vessel in the Gulf of Guinea last month, have been freed.  A spokeswoman for the US State Department has confirmed that the two men, a captain and chief engineer of the US-flagged C-Retriever oil supply ship, were freed over the weekend, adding that the men are safe and healthy and currently on their way home.  Although Jen Psaki provided no further details pertaining to the release of the two hostages, reports have indicated that the two men were freed after negotiations successfully yielded a ransom payment.  Details of the ransom payment are unknown.

The C-Retriever was stormed by armed men on 23 October near the coastal town of Brass, in Nigeria’s Bayelsa State.  The captain and chief engineer, whose names have been withheld for privacy reasons, were then kidnapped by the attackers.  Last week, the 222-foot oil supply ship, which is owned by a Louisiana firm, was tracked near the outskirts of the Port of Onne, where it sat in the water apparently abandoned.  So far, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Meanwhile the US State Department has designated Nigeria’s Boko Haram and Ansaru militant groups as foreign terrorist organizations, a move that is likely to be welcomed by the Nigerian government who has been battling Boko Haram for years.  Officials at the State Department have described the move as “an important” step in helping Nigeria “root out violent extremism.”   Up to now, the Obama administration had refused to designate the militant group as a terrorist organization, fearing that the title would provide Boko Haram greater legitimacy within global jihadi circles.  While the State Department designated three alleged Boko Haram leaders as terrorists, it did not declare the militant group a terrorist organization.  With terrorist splinter groups threatening the Sahel region, one of the reasons behind the US decision to designate Boko Haram as a foreign terrorist organization is the fact that US officials have cited links to al-Qaeda’s affiliates in West Africa and to extremist groups in Mali.  In turn, while Boko Haram was initially viewed as an organization which only posed a domestic threat, another reason why the US had not previously designated it as a terrorist organization, over the last three years, as its attacks have intensified, there have been signs that Boko Haram is now focusing on a more international agenda.

The move to designate Boko Haram and Ansaru as foreign terrorist organizations is significant as it effectively means that US regulatory agencies will be instructed to block all business and financial transactions with Boko Haram.  It will also become a crime under US law to provide material support to the group.  However it is unlikely that the US will attempt to identify Boko Haram’s financial backers, an undertaking which the Nigerian government has up to now failed to achieve.

Boko Haram, which began its insurgency in 2009, desires to impose Islamic law in northern Nigeria.  Since the beginning of its insurgency, the militant group has been blamed for thousands of deaths, targeting both the military and civilians.  The Islamist group is responsible for the 2011 bombing of the United Nation headquarters in Abuja.  The militant group, and other splinter terrorist groups, are seen as being the largest security threat in Nigeria.  Despite an ongoing military campaign, which was launched by President Goodluck Jonathan in May of this year, and which was recently extended for an additional six months, the militant group has continued to carry out its attacks throughout northern Nigeria.  In one of the most recent incidents, fighters dressed in military uniform killed nineteen motorists after blocking a highway in the northeast of the country.

Ansaru was formed in January 2012 however it only rose to prominence about six months later after a video was released in which the militant group vowed to attack Westerners in defense of Muslims worldwide.  While the group, which is based in Nigeria and seen as an off-shoot of Boko Haram, has had a short existence, it has nevertheless proved to be a threat, using dynamite to penetrate heavily-fortified compounds and taking foreigners hostage.

Two months after being formed, officials in the UK indicated that Ansaru’s militants had killed a Briton and an Italian hostage who had been kidnapped in the northwestern state of Sokoto.  In December 2012, following an attack on a well-guarded compound in the northern town of Rimi, Ansaru claimed responsibility for the kidnapping of a French national, Francis Colump.  It carried out a similar attack in February 2013 when seven foreign nationals were captured from a housing compound owned by a Lebanese construction company.

Senior Haqqani Network Leader Killed in Pakistan

Two days ago, on Monday November 11^th, Nasiruddin Haqqani, a senior member of the leadership of the Haqqani network was assassinated in Islamabad. The exact circumstances of his death, perpetrators of the attack and the subsequent removal of his body back to Waziristan remain mysterious. The Haqqani network, while based in Pakistan, is one of the major factions (and most capable) of the Afghani Taliban fighting ISAF forces in Afghanistan. The killing comes at a sensitive time for Pakistan – the leader of the Pakistani Taliban (or TTP) Hakimullah Mehsud was killed earlier this month in a drone strike, and the nascent peace process in the country appears to be on hold for the foreseeable future.

Nasiruddin Haqqani was the son of Jalaluddin Haqqani, the group’s founder and a noted commander in the anti-Soviet fighting of the 1980s. His brother, Sirajuddin, is the day-to-day operational commander of the group. Nasiruddin’s primary responsibility appears to have been as the group’s financier, responsible for business ventures, outreach and fundraising abroad. This reportedly included numerous trips to the Middle East and the Gulf region in recent years.

Nasiruddin was returning home from a mosque through the district of Baru Kahu suburb of Islamabad when multiple gunmen on motorcycles shot him, also killing an innocent bystander. Local authorities originally denied that Nasiruddin had been killed, or was even present, as his body was spirited six hours away, and past numerous military checkpoints, to Waziristan.

Pakistan has long been accused of supporting the Haqqani network, something that would explain why such a senior leader could apparently live unmolested in Islamabad for several years. While the TTP aim to overthrow the Pakistani state, the Afghani Taliban retain close connections with the Pakistani security forces, who use them counter Indian influence in Afghanistan. The Haqqani network in particular has been labelled in the past as being veritable arms of the Pakistani military intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI). The Haqqani Network is considered the most dangerous of the Afghani Taliban factions, and has been responsible for numerous high profile attacks in Kabul in recent years.

The killing comes at a particular problematic time for Pakistan’s security situation. Nasiruddin was reportedly involved in facilitating dialogue and potential peace talks between the TTP and the Pakistani government. These talks were apparently on the verge of beginning when the TTP leader, Hakimullah Mehsud, was killed in a US drone strike. At first, it appeared that Khan Said Sajna, a powerful subordinate in favour of peace talks, would ascend to the leadership with reports even confirming he had been appointed. However, another leader, Mullah Fazlullah eventually emerged as the TTP’s new leader. Fazlullah reportedly rejects peace talks with the Pakistani state, and his appointment has likely crushed any serious chance of dialogue for the foreseeable future.

Security forces across Pakistan are on alert, with the possibility of revenge attacks in the country extremely high. Several Taliban fighters were killed in a shootout with police in Karachi today. The Ashura gatherings, an important part of the Shia Muslim religious calendar, begin on the 15^th of November. With Shia Muslims a common target of terrorist attacks, this period is usually a tense time for Pakistan that sees thousands of troops deployed to ensure order, with the threat of violence even higher this year due to recent events.