MS Risk Blog

South Sudan Security Update: 20 December 2013

On Thursday, attackers stormed a United Nations base, where civilians had taken refuge, in South Sudan.  According to officials, two Indian peacekeepers were killed, with many others feared dead.

United Nations deputy spokesman Farhan Haq reported that officials at the UN had lost contact with the base at Akobo in Jonglei state and that the fate of more than thirty ethnic Dinka civilians sheltering there was also unknown.  UN Deputy Secretary General Jan Eliasson, who strongly condemned the attack, stated “we have received reports of people killed and injured and are in the process of verifying.”

India’s UN ambassador Asoke Mukerji confirmed that two Indian peacekeepers were “targeted and killed” in the assault on Akobo.  An injured Indian soldier was taken to hospital.  A minute’s silence for the soldiers was held at a UN meeting on peacekeeping in New York.  UN deputy spokesman Haq further noted that forty other Indian peacekeepers, along with six UN police advisors, were moved to safety at a nearby South Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) camp.  The UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) will send sixty reinforcements and aircraft in order to pick up the peacekeepers however they are not scheduled to arrive in Akobo until Friday as it is difficult to get to.  The latest attack was reportedly carried out by ethnic Nuer youths.

In the wake of this recent attack, the UN Security Council called emergency consultations to occur on Friday as the crisis in South Sudan, where hundreds have been killed this week in battles between President Salva Kiir and former vice president Riek Machar, continues to mount. A statement released by a spokesman for UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon indicated that the UN leader was “appalled” by the attack on Akobo.  The statement added that if reports of civilian deaths were confirmed, “those responsible must be held accountable for their crimes.”  Ban also noted “the future of this young nation requires its current leadership to do everything possible to prevent South Sudan descending into the chaos that would be such a betrayal of the ideals behind its long struggle for independence.”

Meanwhile in Bor, the capital of Jonglei state, officials have indicated that UN forces are protecting 1,000 civilians who have gathered around a base.  They are also protecting the Bor airstrip.  Bor fell to Riek Machar’s forces on Wednesday.

Since clashes between rival factions of the army erupted on Sunday, hundreds of people have been killed in the capital city Juba.  UN deputy spokesman Haq indicated on Thursday that there were unconfirmed reports of several students killed by security forces at Juba University.  According to a spokesman for the university, several hundred students have stayed on the university campus and have requested protection from UN forces.   Between 2,000 and 5,000 civilians have also gathered at the Kator complex in Juba.  They have also requested help from the UNMISS mission.  In turn, more than 15,000 people have sought shelter at two UN and one World Food Programme (WFP) compounds in Juba.

South Sudan Security Update: 19 December 2013

After Sunday’s reported coup attempt, fighting has continued in South Sudan, with the military now reporting that South Sudanese rebels have taken over a key town.  The unrest, which began in the capital Juba, has already killed some 500 people, sparking concerns that the conflict could spread and transform into a civil war.  President Salva Kiir has accused former vice president Riek Machar of plotting a coup, a claim he has denied.

Rebels Take Key Town

On Thursday, South Sudan’s army spokesman, Col. Philip Aguer, confirmed “our soldiers have lost control of Bor to the forces of Riek Machar.”  The previous day, Bor’s mayor, Nicholas Nhial Maja, indicated that violence had spread to his city from Juba, which is located 200 km (125 miles) away.

Overnight, there were reports of gun battles in Bor, as renegade officers fought with troops who are still loyal to the current president.  The army has indicated that Peter Gadet Yak, the commander of Division 8 unit, had rebelled, taking with him an unknown number of soldiers.  It currently remains unclear as to whether troops loyal to Mr. Machar were involved in the fighting.

Bor is the capital of Jonglei state.  Prior to the current violence, Bor has been seen as being one of the most volatile areas in South Sudan.

While the latest violence has been confined to Jonglei, tensions are also high in the states of Unity and Upper Nile.  However in Juba, where the violence initially erupted on Sunday, the situation appears to be calmer, with Col. Aguer reporting that “the streets are busy and shops are open.

Meanwhile, officials at the United Nations have expressed concern about a possible civil war erupting between the country’s two main ethnic groups, the Dinka of current President Kiir and the Nuer, of Mr. Machar.  The UN has called for political dialogue in order to end the crisis, with the Ugandan government indicating that its president has been asked by the UN to mediate between the two sides.  A delegation composed of East African foreign minister is due to fly to Juba in order to try and arrange talks.  The UN peacekeeping mission has indicated that it is sheltering civilians in five state capitals, including Juba, Bor and Bentiu, which is the main town of the oil-producing state of Unity.

Brtiain and the United States have already sent out planes in order to airlift their nations out of the country.

Coup Attempt

On Monday, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir indicated that an attempted coup by soldiers loyal to his former deputy Riek Machar had been put down.

The President further noted that after a night of heavy fighting between soldiers in the presidential guard, the government was now in full control of the capital, Juba.  A night time curfew was put in place and a number of arrests were reportedly made.  Several people were reported injured and hundreds have fled to a US base.

Fighting broke out in the capital city overnight and intensified in the early morning, with reports of continuous gunfire and several explosions being heard.  The city’s airport has been closed and the state TV channel SSTV went off air for several hours.   Shortly after it came back on air, SSTV broadcasted an address by the President, who indicated that the violence “was an attempted coup,” noting that the government was now in full control and that the attackers were being chased down.    The president has blamed soldiers loyal to Riek Machar, who he dismissed as vice-president in July, for starting the fighting in the capital.  Machar was dismissed after mounting public criticism at the government’s failure to deliver better public services in the oil-producing nation.

The fighting erupted when unidentified uniformed personnel opened fire during a meeting of the ruling Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM).  This was followed by an attack on army headquarters near the university, which was carried out “by a group of soldiers allied to the former vice president Dr. Riek Machar and his group.”  During his address, the president stipulated that he “…will not allow or tolerate such incidents once again in our nation.  I strongly condemn these criminal actions in the strongest terms possible.”  He vowed that those responsible would have to stand “before the appropriate law institution.”

On Monday, the president declared a curfew, running from 6PM to 6AM each night.

Overview  of South Sudan

South Sudan’s is the world’s newest nation.  Located in central Africa, and bordered by six countries, South Sudan is rich in oil, however following decades of civil war, it is also one of the least developed regions on earth.

Tensions

In 2011, South Sudan overwhelmingly voted to breakaway from Sudan.  Since then, there have been a number of small-armed rebellions, border clashes and deadly cattle feuds.  However these have all typically occurred in places away from the capital Juba.

The government’s main concern has been to get the oil flowing following disagreements with Sudan.  Production of oil only resumed in April of this year.  In turn, signs of tension within the country’s governing SPLM party became evident in July, when President Salva Kiir, from the majority Dinka group, removed his deputy Riek Machar, who comes from the second largest Nuer group, from power.

Civil War?

Over the past week, the president of the United Nations Security Council, Gerard Araud, who has stated that the violence in South Sudan had the potential to be a “fully-fledged war throughout the country” between the Dinka and Nuer communities.  In turn, up to 20,000 people have already taken refuge in the UN mission in Juba, with some indicating that Nuer residents were being targeted in the fighting.  Furthermore, after decades of conflict, the country is also awash with guns.

Japan adopts new national security strategy amidst tensions in East Asia

Today, the 17^th of December, the Japanese government has released its new national security strategy. It includes commitments to increase military spending and investment in new technologies, largely aimed at countering China’s growing maritime power and the ongoing dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. A more robust military posture is also a cornerstone of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s right wing nationalist politics, something that is destined to prove controversial both within Japan, and also in the wider region, with China and both Koreas certain to react with hostility to any perceived return to ‘Japanese militarism’.

Though co-operation with the United States (which guarantees Japan’s military security) seems likely to remain the primary feature of Japan’s defensive posture for the foreseeable future, moves towards more independence and assertiveness seem also seem likely to increase over coming years. The new national security strategy would help provide for this, with a 5% spending increase allowing for the purchase of more equipment for Japan’s already modern military. This will apparently include new naval destroyers, surveillance drones, fighter aircraft and Osprey tilt rotor aircraft. A new assault force (essentially a marine corps) equipped with amphibious landing craft, will also be created.

Much of this development is in response to the increasingly assertive presence of the Chinese military in the region, particularly in the maritime sphere. As China pursues a blue water navy, it is investing extremely heavily in new warships in order to expand it’s control in East Asian waters. This included, last year, the completion of China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning. Though the Liaoning is a refurbished Soviet aircraft carrier and not state of the art, it is allowing the Chinese to develop and train personnel for deployment on their own indigenously built aircraft carriers, which are scheduled to begin entering active service around 2020.

China’s increasingly assertive role has manifested in continuing tensions over a collection of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, controlled by Japan and known as the Senkakus (though called the Diaoyu by China). These islands are a continuing flashpoint between the two nations, both as a source of national pride and also because of the rich natural resources and fishing fields in the area. Recently, China has unilaterally expanded its Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) to cover a large swathe of the East China sea, a move that has provoked criticism from Japan, South Korea and the United States. It is worth noting that Japan’s own ADIZ is also of a similar size, and has also been expanded in a similar fashion in the past. Japan is also engaged in a territorial dispute over islands controlled by South Korea, as well as a long running dispute with Russia over the Northern Territories. Japan is also within missile range of North Korea, and feels threatened by its nuclear program and potentially destabilising actions.

Any Japanese re-militarisation would prove an extremely controversial affair. The legacy of the Second World War remains strong in East Asia, with the Chinese and Korean populace hostile to a Japan that they feel often refuses to face up to its wartime behaviour, particularly involving the usage of comfort women (native peoples forced into prostitution for the Japanese armed forces). Prime Minister Abe’s stringent nationalism is particularly marked – he has been ambivalent about admitting the war crimes committed by the Japanese armed forces, has denied the coercive role of the military in procuring comfort women, and has openly questioned whether Japan should be defined an ‘aggressor’ during the war, arguing school books should give a more positive view of Japan’s wartime role and behaviour.

Within Japan, Abe’s right wing nationalism is also controversial. A recent implementation of a hard-line new state secrets law promoted demonstrations in Tokyo, while Abe’s desire to overturn Japan’s pacifist constitution is well known. It would be difficult for Abe to do this currently, as he would require a two thirds majority in both houses of parliament as well as a successful referendum. Many on the Japanese left are apparently concerned that Abe is using the threat of a rising China to ‘re-militarise through the back door’ and to meet his own nationalist aims as opposed to external threats.

Despite frequent sabre rattling between China, both Koreas and Japan over their various disagreements and claims in the region, an imminent deterioration in East Asian stability is still very unlikely. However, the long term strategic issues in the region posed by a rising China, a US suffering from a stretched defence budget and declining influence, a remilitarised and more aggressive Japan and an unpredictable North Korea are extremely serious. Any conflict in the region would also have serious economic consequences world-wide, as China, Japan and South Korea are all major players in the global economy.

Mali’s Parliamentary Election Results Released

According to provisional results announced by the government on Tuesday, the party of Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, and its allies, have won the West African country’s parliamentary elections.

Minister of Territorial Administration Moussa Sinko Coulibaly announced on state television that the Rally for Mali (RPM) party, along with its junior partners, had secured 115 of the 147 seats in the national assembly following a second round of voting that occurred on Sunday.  The minister further noted that the exact breakdown was still being worked out.  The Union for the Republic of Democracy (URD), the party of beaten presidential candidate Soumaila Cisse, will have between 17 and 19 members in the new parliament, effectively allowing Cisse to become the leader of the opposition.  While the official results will be confirmed by the country’s constitutional court in the coming days, it appears that the RPM party have made good on a promise to deliver “a comfortable majority” to smooth the path for reforms that the president plans to put in place in order to rebuild Mali’s stagnant economy and to ease the ethnic tensions that are still an issue in the northern region of the country.  Turnout for the second round of voting reached 37.3 percent, a drop from the 38.6 percent that was achieved during the first round, which itself was deemed disappointing by local and international officials.  The second round of parliamentary voting was Mali’s fourth nationwide ballot in less than five months, with some observers blaming voting fatigue for the low turnout.  Despite a terrorist attack being carried out the day before the elections, there were no serious incidents reported during the ten hours of voting however many voters were believed to have stayed away because of the recent upsurge in rebel attacks against African troops tasked with election security alongside French and Malian soldiers.  On Saturday, two Senegalese UN peacekeepers were killed, and seven others wounded, when a suicide bomber ploughed his explosives-laden car into a bank they were guarding in the northeastern town of Kidal.  The elections mark the completion of Mali’s return to democracy after the country was upended by a coup last year.   Louis Michel, the European Union’s chief election observer in Mali indicated on Monday that his team had positively evaluated 98 percent of the 705 polling stations observed during the election.  He further noted that the “legal framework” for the polls “remains aligned with international standards for democratic elections.”

Meanwhile officials reported on Tuesday that militants had shelled a camp, where French troops and the United Nations MINUSMA peacekeeping force are stationed, in northern Mali.  According to military sources, “two shells were fired Monday night by unidentified persons at the Kidal camp for French troops and MINUSMA,” adding that there was “no damage or casualties.”  The attack was later confirmed by a French military source stationed in Mali who indicated that the shells passed safely over the camp, missing their targets.  The attack comes amidst an upsurge in violence in Mali’s north.

Malians Vote in the Wake of Another Attack

Two United Nations peacekeepers have been killed in a car bomb blast in the northeastern Malian town of Kidal, overshadowing the second round of parliamentary elections that were held on Sunday.

Malian Elections

On Sunday, Malians voted in the second round of parliamentary elections, which are intended to cap the nation’s return to democracy but which were overshadowed by the deaths of two UN peacekeepers in a militant attack that was carried out on Saturday.

Speaking shortly after casting his ballot in the capital city, Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita stated, “this second round establishes the recovery on a foundation of legitimacy in this country.  It will give us more strength, more power to say ‘Mali’ and that’s what Mali needs.”

In the first round of elections, which took place on 24 November, nineteen of the national assembly’s 147 seats were allocated, with voter turnout at 38.6 per cent, a drop of almost 13 percentage points from the first round of voting during the presidential elections.  Shortly after the conclusion of the first round of parliamentary voting, Louis Michel, chief of the European Union (EU) observation mission, called on “all political actors” to turn out in the second round, adding that “in the specific context of Mali, voting is not only a right, it is a moral duty.”

While there were no serious incidents reported during the ten hours of voting, polling stations throughout the country were reporting turnout as low as fifteen per cent, as voters were scared away by a recent upsurge in rebel attacks against African troops tasked with election security alongside French and Malian soldiers.

Sources on the ground have indicated that polling stations in Bamako reported an estimated turnout of just fifteen per cent.  In Koulikoro, located 50 kilometres (37 miles) southwest of Bamako, many residents indicated that they were not intending to participate as they were unimpressed with the candidates and feared Islamist violence.  The second round of parliamentary elections is Mali’s fourth nationwide ballot since July, with some reports indicating that the low turnout may also be due to a lack of interest due to voting fatigue.  In the north of Mali, voting took place without incident in the regions of Gao and Timbuktu, with seats in Kidal already decided in the first round.   Maiga Seyma, the deputy mayor of Gao, indicated that turnout appeared to be good in its 88 polling stations and that the voting had opened in an atmosphere of calm.

The outcome of the election is expected to be announced by the government before the end of Friday, with the president’s Rally for Mali (RPM) party vowing to deliver “a comfortable majority” to smooth the path for reforms he plans to put in place in order to rebuild Mali’s stagnant economy and ease the simmering ethnic tensions in the north.

Explosion Overshadows Elections

A suicide attack on United Nations forces in northern Mali on Saturday killed two Senegalese soldiers in what a Malian jihadist leader said was retaliation for African countries’ support of a French army operation against Islamist militants.

The blast, which occurred when a suicide bomber ploughed his explosives-laden vehicle into the Malian Bank of Solidarity in Kidal, killed the two peacekeepers who were guarding the bank.  A government statement indicated that the car “struck the main door of the bank, killing in addition to the suicide bomber two Senegalese soldiers of MINUSMA and injuring six other people.”  The statement further noted that five sustained serious injuries – three peacekeepers and two Malian soldiers – who were later evacuated to Gao.

Sultan Ould Badi, a Malian jihadist linked to a number of armed groups, has indicated that the latest attack was in retaliation for African countries’ support of the French-led military operation against Islamist rebels in northern Mali.  He further noted “we are going to respond all across Azawad and in other lands…with other operations against France’s crusades.”  Badi, a member of northern Mali’s Arab and Tuareg minority groups, rose to prominence kidnapping European hostages in the region and selling them on to armed Islamist groups.  He later joined AQIM and was close to one of the group’s top commanders, Abdelhamid Abou Zeid, who was killed while fighting the French army in northern Mali in late February of this year.  After Zeid’s death, Badi joined another al-Qaeda-linked group, the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), before launching his own small radical group.  According to a Malian security source, Badi current acts as an intermediary between the various jihadist groups that operate in northern Mali.

Over the past week, the French army has been carrying out an operation against al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) militant north of Timbuktu.  According to French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, nineteen militants have been killed.

Also on Saturday, Seyba Diarra, the right-hand man of coup leader Amadou Sanogo, was detained on charges of assassination.  According to sources close to the investigation, Diarra had promised to “cooperate frankly” with investigators in order to shed light on a mass grave containing twenty-one bodies that was discovered on December 4 near the capital Bamako.  The dead are believed to be “red berets” loyal to the president overthrown in the coup, Amadou Toumani Toure,  The discovery of the mass grave came one week after Sanogo’s arrest and detention, after which about fifteen mainly military aides were also arrested.  The government has since indicated that “for now,” Sanogo was charged with involvement in a kidnapping, however a source close to judge Yaya Karembe has stated that he faces charges including murder.