MS Risk Blog

US Envoy Meets with Rebel Leader in South Sudan: Calm Restored in CAR

Efforts to broker a ceasefire in South Sudan continue as a United States special envoy, along with other mediators, hold a meeting with rebel leader Riek Machar.

Reports have indicated that US special envoy Donald Booth met with Mr Machar at an undisclosed location in South Sudan.  Mr Booth later indicated that mediators would continue to press for the release of jailed associates of Mr Machar for them to attend peace talks in Ethiopia.  A rebel spokesman has also indicated that a ceasefire would be signed if Mr Machar’s associates were freed.  Hussein Mar Nyout has also dismissed claims made by the South Sudanese government that is forces were now in full control of Unity State.  He also described as baseless a government allegation that forces loyal to Mr Machar had damaged oil facilities there.

Calm Restored in the Central African Republic Following Leaders Departure

In the Central African Republic, after weeks of sectarian clashes, restive calm has returned to the streets Bangui, with banks, offices and markets re-opening.  The country’s interim leader has also announced that the days of looting and revenge attacks were over.

Sources on the ground have reported that local residents of Bangui now feel safe enough to leave their homes across the city.  The police have also returned to the streets while some local residents have stated that the city is the busiest it has been for a year.  Many believe that this feels like a turning point as in recent weeks, there has always been at least one district, whether Muslim or Christian, where violence has resulted in people staying at home.

Following the rebel leader’s resignation on Friday, interim leader and speaker of the provisional parliament Alexandre-Ferdinand Nguendet vowed that the “anarchy” that has gripped the country would be swiftly brought to an end, adding that “the chaos is over, the pillaging is over, the revenge attacks are over.”  He also issued a stern warning to warring militiamen from the Seleka group and the anti-balaka Christian fighters set up to oppose them.  Speaking at a police headquarters in the capital Bangui, he stated “to the ex-Seleka, to the anti-balaka and the lovers of looting, I’m giving you a severe warning:  The party is over.”

The return of soldiers and police to duty was another encouraging sign for the CAR after weeks of horrific sectarian violence.   Over the weekend, hundreds of people lined up to re-enlist in the army, following an appeal from the chief of staff.  Many of them had either deserted after the rebel takeover, or left in order to join the vigilante groups.

In recent months, the capital city has been riven by sectarian violence, with about 20% of the 4.6 million population said to have fled their homes.

Following months of fighting, Michel Djotodia seized power in March 2013, effectively becoming the CAR’s first Muslim leader.  Although he later disbanded his Seleka rebels, attacks on Christian civilians around the country continued, prompting the formation of vigilante groups, which targeted Muslims.  On 10 January 2014, following intense pressure from the CAR’s neighbor’s, Michel Djotodia, along with Prime Minister Nicholas Tiengaye, stepped down.  The transitional national council now has two weeks in order to select a new President.

While the situation in Bangui is calm, the mood could quickly turn.  On Monday, the Redo Cross reported that about fifteen people were killed ove the weekend, confirming that a degree of tension throughout the country

The CAR’s interim President and Prime Minister Resign

The Central African Republic’s President Michel Djotodia has resigned at a regional summit that is aimed at ending the violence that has engulfed the country.  Prime Minister Nicolas Tiengay has also announced his resignation.  The announcement, which was released in a statement by the ten-nation Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), was met with jubilant scenes throughout the CAR’s capital city Bangui.  Shortly after the announcement was made, French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called for a replacement for Mr. Dojotida “as soon as possible.”  On the ground in the CAR, French tanks have deployed around the presidential palace in Bangui in order to prevent protests.

Sources have indicated that on Friday, just before 0300 GMT, the regional leaders suspended their talks and requested that the CAR interim parliament draft a deal for President Djotodia and Prime Minister Nicolas Tiengae to step down.  Over the past few weeks, Djotodia has come under fire for failing to stem the spiralling violence between mainly Muslim former rebels who brought him to power last year and militias formed by the Christian majority.  Although he is due to step down when a transition period expires in a year’s time, his inability to rein in chaos across the country has prompted calls for a swifter change in leadership.

Over the past few days, regional leaders, and the CAR’s entire parliament, gathered in neighbouring Chad in a bid to end sectarian violence that has engulfed the country.  Chadian President Idriss Deby, who had stark words, seen by many as a push to remove Djotodia, or at least to curb his powers, opened the summit.  During his opening statement on Thursday, Chad’s president indicated that “the CAR is suffering deploy from the actions of its own sons, who are dragging their country down into a war that jeopardises its future.”  President Deby called for “concrete and decisive action” to halt the violence that has pitted Muslims against Christian self-defence militias and which has resulted in the death of more than 1,000 people in the past month.  On Thursday, ECCAS secretary general Allami Ahmat, a former Chadian foreign minister, stated “the solution must come from the Central Africans themselves,” adding that “neither ECCAS nor the international community have come to change the regime….It is up to those responsible (in the CAR) to decide the fate of their country.”  All 135 lawmakers from the CAR flew to Chad on Thursday, where they were ordered by African leaders at the summit to draw up a proposal on their president Michel Djotodia’s future.  As the high-stake talks took place in N’Djamena, thousands of residents in the Central African capital Bangui took to the streets, demanding that Djotodia resign.  Regional leaders are anxious to stem the crisis as there are fears that the unrest extends beyond the CAR’s borders.  Officials at the United Nations have warned that both ex-Seleka rebels and CAR former solders have crossed into the volatile Democratic Republic of Congo, causing local residents to flee.

Mr. Djotodia, the CAR’s first Muslim leader, seized power in March of last yea.  Since then, twenty per cent of the population have fled their homes amidst intense fighting between Christian and Muslim militias.  Since December 2013, and the arrival of more region peacekeepers and French troops, around 1,000 people have died in sectarian clashes.  Many villages are now deserted and over the past month, the number of those who have fled the home has doubled, including almost half of those living in the capital Bangui.    Furthermore, while mass slaughters have mostly ceased in Bangui itself, amidst frequent patrols carried out by peacekeepers, sporadic killings carry on almost every night.  Officials at the United Nations have warned of an impending humanitarian disaster.  Some 100,000 people have set up camp in one tent city near Bangui airport, close to the peacekeepers base.  UNICEF has warned of a potential disaster in overcrowded camps in and around the capital city, where thee have already been several cases of measles, which could be deadly.

European Union nation states are considering whether to join in the French and African peacekeeping operations in the country, with a meeting on the issue scheduled for Friday.

US Announces No Troops to Iraq Despite the Fall of Fallujah

On Tuesday, officials in the US announced that they will speed up the supply of military equipment to Iraq in order to help the government their fight militant groups in western Anbar province.  The White House also indicated that additional surveillance drones would be delivered within weeks while more Hellfire missiles would be sent in the next few months.  The announcement comes just days after the Iraqi government lost control of key city of Fallujah to Islamic militants.  Fighting in Anbar has led to some of the heaviest clashes in Iraq in past few years.  While reports have indicated that on the ground troops are currently preparing to attack the city of Fallujah, a spokesman for Iraq’s defence ministry indicated on Tuesday that it was not “possible to assault it now” due to fears about civilian casualties.

As the violence has increased, White House spokesman Jay Carney has stated that the US is working closely with officials in Baghdad in order to develop a “holistic strategy” to isolate al-Qaeda affiliated groups.  He further indicated that there had already been some success however the situation remains “fluid,” adding that “we’re accelerating our foreign military sales, deliveries, and are looking to provide an additional shipment of Hellfire missiles as early as this spring.”  US Secretary of State John Kerry has also indicated that no US forces will return to Iraq.  Despite withdrawing from Iraq at the end of 2011, the US remains a key security partner, providing more than US $14 billion (£8 billion) worth of weapons to Baghdad since 2005.

Reports have indicated that much of Fallujah is under control by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, known as ISIS, with Prime Minister Nouri Maliki urging residents to drive them out.  The nearby city of Ramadi is reported to be under the control of powerful Sunni tribes working with local police, opposing pockets of ISIS fighters there.  Despite long-standing grievances against the central Shia-led government, the Ramadi tribes have renewed a pact with senior Iraqi army leaders to dislodge any presence of al-Qaeda.  Since violence erupted, hundreds of residents in Fallujah have fled shelling and air strikes by government forces.  At the same time, the militants have called on Sunni tribes in the area to support them and have urged families who have fled the city to return to their homes.

Possible South Sudan Reconciliation; Syrian Weapons Transferred

South Sudan Reconciliation “Possible” As Two Sides Meet

A chief negotiator in South Sudan has indicated that rebels are confident that “full reconciliation” can be achieved with the government.  Taban Deng’s comments come as the two sides hold ceasefire talks in Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa.  South Sudan’s Information Minister Michel Makuel has also indicated that the government is committed to ending the conflict.  Fresh violence erupted in South Sudan on 15 December 2013, resulting in around 1,000 people being killed since then.  In turn, nearly 200,000 people have been displaced as a result of the fighting, which has seen clashes between members of the Dinka and Nuer ethnic groups.

After days of disputes pertaining to procedural issues and the agenda, direct talks between the two sides finally began on Sunday in Addis Ababa.  On Tuesday, chief mediators Seyoum Mesfin and Lazurus Sumbeiywo flew to South Sudan’s capital, Juba, in order to hold talks with President Salva Kiir.  A major issue to be raised during the talks will be the demand made by Riek Machar to release twelve people who have been detained over allegations of a coup plot.  The president has so far repeatedly ruled out their release, stating that they will face justice.  Mr Machar however denies that there was a coup plot, stating instead that the current president’s forces are responsible for the violence, which is being used as a mechanism to consolidate his hold on power ahead of elections which are due in 2015.

Since fighting began in mid-December of last year, both sides have been under intense diplomatic pressure to end the fighting in South Sudan, which is the world’s newest state.  On Monday.  China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, met with the two parties in Addis Ababa and urged them to negotiate a ceasefire.  China is a major investor in South Sudan’s oil industry.  Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir also held talks with President Kiir on Monday.  According to Sudan’s Foreign Minister Ali Karti, the two leaders were “in consultations about the deployment of a mixed force to protect the oilfields in the South.

When it seceded from Sudan in 2011, the South ended up with most of the oilfields however it has to export the oil using pipelines through ports in Sudan’s territory.  With fighting escalating over the past few weeks, the government in Khartoum, Sudan now fears that the fighting that is occurring in the South will disrupt its oil revenue.

Despite the two sides hold talks in Ethiopia, fighting in South Sudan has continued.  On Monday, heavy fighting between President Kiir’s and Mr Machar’s forces occurred near Bor, the capital of Jonglei state.  Army spokesman Philip Aguer indicated that it was only a “matter of time” before Bor was recaptured from the rebels.  The United Nations also announced on Monday that militiamen had taken control of a UN food warehouse in Bentiu and that UN vehicles had been commandeered in the rebel-held town of Bor.

On Monday, the South Sudanese government announced that it had agreed to a cessation of hostilities with rebel leader David Yau Yau.  The government, which has been fighting Mr Yau Yau for nearly two years, feared that his troops, which are stationed in Jonglei state, would joint the new rebellion.

First Chemical Weapons Leave Syria

Meanwhile in Syria, the United Nations has confirmed that the first consignment of chemical weapons has left the Syrian port of Latakia.  Officials at the UN have indicated that Chinese, Danish, Norwegian and Russian frigates are escorting the consignment.  A previous attempt to collect the arms was aborted after Syrian officials failed to deliver the toxic chemicals to the collection point in Latakia.  The “most critical” chemical include about twenty tonnes of blister agent sulphur mustard.

The weapons are due to be taken to Italy, where they will be loaded onto a US Navy Ship and shipped into international waters for destruction in a specially created titanium tank on board.  Removing the most dangerous chemicals is the first step of a UN-backed agreement that aims to eliminate Syria’s chemical weapons arsenal by the middle of this year.  The agreement was brokered by Russian and American officials after rockets filled with nerve agent sarin were fired at three towns in the Ghouta agricultural belt located around the Syrian capital Damascus on 21 August 2013.  The attack resulted in the deaths of hundreds of peoples.  While Western powers have indicated that the assault could have only bee carried out Syrian government forces, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has blamed the attack on rebel fighters.

Route of First Consignment

1. The Syrian authorities are responsible for packing and safely transporting the chemical weapons from twelve sites across the country to the port of Latakia.  Russia has supplied large-capacity and armoured lorries, while the US has sent container drums and GPS locators.
2. Russia has also provided security for loading operations at Latakia, for which the US has supplied loading, transportation and decontamination equipment’s.  Meanwhile China has sent ten ambulances and surveillance cameras while Finland has sent an emergency response team in the event that accidents should occur.
3. Denmark and Norway will provide cargo ships and military escorts in order to take the chemicals to an as yet unnamed port in Italy.  Russia and China will also provide naval escorts.
4. Upon arrival in Italy, the “most critical” chemical weapons will be loaded onto the US Maritime Administration cargo ship, MV Cape Ray, in order to be destroyed by hydrolysis in international waters.  Meanwhile less toxic chemicals will be shipped by Norwegian and Danish vessels for disposal at commercial facilities.

Security Update: South Sudan and Nigeria (23 December 2013)

On Monday, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir confirmed that South Sudanese troops are preparing to enter the rebel-held town of Bor.  Earlier, the South Sudanese army confirmed that Bentiu, the capital of oil-rich Unity State, had been taken by fighters supporting former vice-president Riek Machar.   Meanwhile in northern Nigeria, a Lebanese businessman has been kidnapped.

President Kiir told Parliament that the army was “ready to move,” adding that the counter-attack had been delayed in order to allow US citizens to be airlifted out.  Bor, which lies in the state of Jonglei, was captured by rebels loyal for former vice president Riek Machar last Wednesday.  During his address to Parliament, the President repeated his offer to hold talks with Mr. Machar, stating that a delegation of East African foreign minister had offered to mediate the talks.  However he did note that Mr. Machar would have “to come to the table without any precondition.”

The mounting ethnic violence over the past week has raised fears that clashes may turn into a civil war.  While the president, a member of the majority Dinka ethnic group, has accused Mr. Machar, a member of the Nuer community, of attempting a coup, the former vice president has denied these claims.  Mr. Machar has also since indicated that the president has been carrying out a purge of his rivals.

Over the past week, United Nations humanitarian staff in South Sudan have reported numerous blood scenes and summary executions.  A spokesman for the UN in the capital, Juba, has also indicated that UN compounds throughout the country were sheltering more than 40,000 civilians.  Joseph Contreas further added that the UN was “doing everything possible to remain in touch with key leaders and seek a peaceful way out of this conflict.”

A statement released by UN humanitarian co-ordinator Toby Lanzer has indicated that an estimated 17,000 people had sought protection in the UN peacekeeping base in Bor.  Mr. Lanzar further noted that aid workers are under intense pressure, with humanitarian compounds looted in several locations, adding “we are looking at a massive increase in need and I am engaging all parties to ensure that civilians are protected and that aid workers are able to access people who need our help.”

Over the weekend, the US deployed extra troops in order to help evacuate Americans and other foreigners.  In Bor, three US military aircraft were fired upon on Saturday, forcing officials to abort the evacuation.  On Sunday, the US re-entered using civilian US and UN helicopters.  The UK is deploying, what is expected to be a final plane, on Monday to help Britons flee South Sudan.

Meanwhile in Nigeria, gunmen have kidnapped a Lebanese businessman in the northern Nigerian city of Kano after militants stormed his factory.

Police spokesman Magaji Majiya has indicated that police have launched a manhunt to arrest the attackers, adding that a man and woman were wounded when the militants opened fire as they took the man hostage.  On the grounds sources have reported that police in Kano have mounted checkpoints throughout the city as they attempt to track down the hostage takers.

Police officials have identified the Lebanese national as Hassan Zein.  Zein, the Managing Director of M.C. Plastic Company, was seized in the early hours of Monday from the company’s premises in the Sharada Industrial area of Kano.   So far no group has claimed responsibility for the kidnapping.  While officials have indicated that there are suspicions that militant Islamists carried out the attack, the possibility that a criminal gang took the man hostage for ransom cannot be ruled out at this time.

This is not the first reported incident of a foreigner being kidnapped in the northern town of Kano.  Last year, a German engineer, Edgar Fritz Raupach, was abducted in Kano by militant Islamists.  He was later killed during a security force operation to rescue him.  While it was not clear which group had abducted Mr. Raupach, a video purported to be from al-Qaeda’s North Africa wing, AQIM, demanded at the time that Germany free a woman jailed on terror charges in return for his release.