MS Risk Blog

Piracy at Lowest Level in Six Years; Westgate Trial Commences in Kenya

Piracy at sea is at its lowest level in six years, with 264 attacks recorded, a 40% drop since Somali piracy peaked in 2011.

The drop in worldwide piracy attacks has greatly been due to the dramatic drop of incidents recorded in waters off Somalia.  In 2013, the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) reported fifteen incidents off Somalia.  According to its records, this is down from 75 in 2012 and 237 in 2011.  The increase of armed guards on vessels, coupled with international navy patrols and the “stabilizing influence” of Somalia’s government have aided in deterring pirate.   According to Pottengal Mukundan, IMB’s director, “the single biggest reason for the drop in worldwide piracy is the decrease in Somali piracy off the coast of East Africa,” adding that “it is imperative to continue combined international efforts to tackle Somali piracy.  Any complacency at this stage could re-kindle pirate activity.”

The IMB’s annual global piracy report has indicated that more than 300 people were taken hostage at sea in 2013 and 21 were injured, nearly all with guns or knives.

Examining global piracy figures, Indonesia witnessed the most pirate attacks last year, accounting for more than 50 of all reported incidents.  However it must be noted that attacks in waters of Indonesia were “low-level opportunistic thefts, not to be compared with the more serious incidents off Africa.”  Piracy off West Africa made up 19% of attacks worldwide in 2013.  According to the IMB report, Nigerian pirates accounted for 31 of the region’s 51 attacks.  These attacks were “particularly violent,” with one crew member killed, and thirty-six people kidnapped and held onshore for ransom.

In November 2013, a United Nations and World Bank report indicated that pirates operating off the Horn of Africa, which are some of the world’s busiest shipping and humanitarian aid routes, had netted more than US $400 million (£251 million) in ransom money between 2005 and 2012.

Meanwhile in neighboring Kenya, the trial of four men charged over the Westgate shopping centre siege began in Kenya’s capital Nairobi.

The four suspected foreigners have denied the charges of aiding a “terrorist group,” and of being in Kenya illegally.  However none of the  men – named as Mohammed Ahmed Abdi, Liban Abdullah, Adnan Ibrahim, and Hussein Hassan – have been accused of being the gunmen who carried out the attack.  While their nationalities have not been disclosed, they are said to be ethnic Somalis.

Police officials in Kenya have also indicated that the four accused had sheltered the attackers in their homes in Eastleigh a Somali neighbourhood in Nairobi, and that they were in contact with the gunmen four days prior to the siege being carried out.

During the first day of the trial, the court heard testimony from security guards who saw what happened when the gunmen launched the attack in September 2013, killing at least sixty-seven people.  During his testimony, guard Stephen Juma told the court that he had been directing traffic outside the upmarket shopping centre when a car pulled up and three men jumped out.  According to Mr Juma, one of them immediately shot dead a shopper, adding that “I began to hear gunshots, I made a radio call for help while running to the main entrance.”  Mr Juma further noted that he could not identify any of the gunmen as their heads and faces had been covered with black headscarves.

The four are the first to be charged over the attack, which was the worst in Kenya since 224 people were killed in the 1998 bombing of the US embassy.  Reports have indicated that around forty witnesses are expected to give evidence at the trial, which is likely to last around a week.

Somalia’s al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab confirmed days after the siege at they were behind the attack, indicating that one of its suicide brigades carried out the siege.  Although al-Shabaab is fighting for the creation of an Islamic state in Somalia, the militant group has on numerous occasions carried out attacks in neighboring Kenya in a bid to avenge the presence of Kenyan troops in Somalia to bolster the UN-backed central government.

Car Bombing in Maiduguri, Nigeria

A car bomb has exploded in the north eastern Nigerian city of Maiduguri, with fears that the latest attack to target the region has left many casualties.

At least seventeen people were killed on Tuesday when an explosion targeted a busy market on the public holiday that marks the birth of the Prophet Mohammed.  Police officials have indicated that the explosion occurred at about 1:30 PM (1230 GMT) around the post office area of Maiduguri, which has been hit previously by Boko Haram militants.  According to Lawan Tanko, police chief for Borno state, “from our preliminary reports, we have 17 dead and at least five injured from the blast in the post office area,” however he warned that the toll could rise as casualties were taken from the bustling market to medical centres for treatment, adding that “these figures are likely to change by the time we get full reports from our men in the field.

Initial reports at the scene suggest that the blast was caused by either a car bomb or suicide bomber, however there has not yet been any confirmations from the authorities.  Police Chief Tanko has noted that “the bomb was detonated in the midst of a large crowd of traders while a truck carrying firewood was passing by.”  A witness to the bombing stated that “an explosive device concealed in a sack was abandoned near a butcher’s stall by unknown persons around Kasuwar Jagwal.”

The explosion caused panic in the city, where residents were in the midst of celebrating Eid Milad un Nabi.  While the market has since been closed, with police officers carrying out investigations, the rest of the city remains on high alert as possible attacks and suicide bombings may be carried out in the coming days.

Over the past several weeks, Maiduguri has witnessed a number of attacks.  On 2 December 2013, the northern spiritual home city of Boko Haram was raided by Boko Haram insurgents who burnt aircraft, seized weapons and razed buildings at military bases throughout the city.  On Sunday, suspected Boko Haram gunmen killed five at a village market located 22 kilometres from Maiduguri.  During the attack, the militants burnt cars, shops and tents storing grain.

US Envoy Meets with Rebel Leader in South Sudan: Calm Restored in CAR

Efforts to broker a ceasefire in South Sudan continue as a United States special envoy, along with other mediators, hold a meeting with rebel leader Riek Machar.

Reports have indicated that US special envoy Donald Booth met with Mr Machar at an undisclosed location in South Sudan.  Mr Booth later indicated that mediators would continue to press for the release of jailed associates of Mr Machar for them to attend peace talks in Ethiopia.  A rebel spokesman has also indicated that a ceasefire would be signed if Mr Machar’s associates were freed.  Hussein Mar Nyout has also dismissed claims made by the South Sudanese government that is forces were now in full control of Unity State.  He also described as baseless a government allegation that forces loyal to Mr Machar had damaged oil facilities there.

Calm Restored in the Central African Republic Following Leaders Departure

In the Central African Republic, after weeks of sectarian clashes, restive calm has returned to the streets Bangui, with banks, offices and markets re-opening.  The country’s interim leader has also announced that the days of looting and revenge attacks were over.

Sources on the ground have reported that local residents of Bangui now feel safe enough to leave their homes across the city.  The police have also returned to the streets while some local residents have stated that the city is the busiest it has been for a year.  Many believe that this feels like a turning point as in recent weeks, there has always been at least one district, whether Muslim or Christian, where violence has resulted in people staying at home.

Following the rebel leader’s resignation on Friday, interim leader and speaker of the provisional parliament Alexandre-Ferdinand Nguendet vowed that the “anarchy” that has gripped the country would be swiftly brought to an end, adding that “the chaos is over, the pillaging is over, the revenge attacks are over.”  He also issued a stern warning to warring militiamen from the Seleka group and the anti-balaka Christian fighters set up to oppose them.  Speaking at a police headquarters in the capital Bangui, he stated “to the ex-Seleka, to the anti-balaka and the lovers of looting, I’m giving you a severe warning:  The party is over.”

The return of soldiers and police to duty was another encouraging sign for the CAR after weeks of horrific sectarian violence.   Over the weekend, hundreds of people lined up to re-enlist in the army, following an appeal from the chief of staff.  Many of them had either deserted after the rebel takeover, or left in order to join the vigilante groups.

In recent months, the capital city has been riven by sectarian violence, with about 20% of the 4.6 million population said to have fled their homes.

Following months of fighting, Michel Djotodia seized power in March 2013, effectively becoming the CAR’s first Muslim leader.  Although he later disbanded his Seleka rebels, attacks on Christian civilians around the country continued, prompting the formation of vigilante groups, which targeted Muslims.  On 10 January 2014, following intense pressure from the CAR’s neighbor’s, Michel Djotodia, along with Prime Minister Nicholas Tiengaye, stepped down.  The transitional national council now has two weeks in order to select a new President.

While the situation in Bangui is calm, the mood could quickly turn.  On Monday, the Redo Cross reported that about fifteen people were killed ove the weekend, confirming that a degree of tension throughout the country

The CAR’s interim President and Prime Minister Resign

The Central African Republic’s President Michel Djotodia has resigned at a regional summit that is aimed at ending the violence that has engulfed the country.  Prime Minister Nicolas Tiengay has also announced his resignation.  The announcement, which was released in a statement by the ten-nation Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS), was met with jubilant scenes throughout the CAR’s capital city Bangui.  Shortly after the announcement was made, French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called for a replacement for Mr. Dojotida “as soon as possible.”  On the ground in the CAR, French tanks have deployed around the presidential palace in Bangui in order to prevent protests.

Sources have indicated that on Friday, just before 0300 GMT, the regional leaders suspended their talks and requested that the CAR interim parliament draft a deal for President Djotodia and Prime Minister Nicolas Tiengae to step down.  Over the past few weeks, Djotodia has come under fire for failing to stem the spiralling violence between mainly Muslim former rebels who brought him to power last year and militias formed by the Christian majority.  Although he is due to step down when a transition period expires in a year’s time, his inability to rein in chaos across the country has prompted calls for a swifter change in leadership.

Over the past few days, regional leaders, and the CAR’s entire parliament, gathered in neighbouring Chad in a bid to end sectarian violence that has engulfed the country.  Chadian President Idriss Deby, who had stark words, seen by many as a push to remove Djotodia, or at least to curb his powers, opened the summit.  During his opening statement on Thursday, Chad’s president indicated that “the CAR is suffering deploy from the actions of its own sons, who are dragging their country down into a war that jeopardises its future.”  President Deby called for “concrete and decisive action” to halt the violence that has pitted Muslims against Christian self-defence militias and which has resulted in the death of more than 1,000 people in the past month.  On Thursday, ECCAS secretary general Allami Ahmat, a former Chadian foreign minister, stated “the solution must come from the Central Africans themselves,” adding that “neither ECCAS nor the international community have come to change the regime….It is up to those responsible (in the CAR) to decide the fate of their country.”  All 135 lawmakers from the CAR flew to Chad on Thursday, where they were ordered by African leaders at the summit to draw up a proposal on their president Michel Djotodia’s future.  As the high-stake talks took place in N’Djamena, thousands of residents in the Central African capital Bangui took to the streets, demanding that Djotodia resign.  Regional leaders are anxious to stem the crisis as there are fears that the unrest extends beyond the CAR’s borders.  Officials at the United Nations have warned that both ex-Seleka rebels and CAR former solders have crossed into the volatile Democratic Republic of Congo, causing local residents to flee.

Mr. Djotodia, the CAR’s first Muslim leader, seized power in March of last yea.  Since then, twenty per cent of the population have fled their homes amidst intense fighting between Christian and Muslim militias.  Since December 2013, and the arrival of more region peacekeepers and French troops, around 1,000 people have died in sectarian clashes.  Many villages are now deserted and over the past month, the number of those who have fled the home has doubled, including almost half of those living in the capital Bangui.    Furthermore, while mass slaughters have mostly ceased in Bangui itself, amidst frequent patrols carried out by peacekeepers, sporadic killings carry on almost every night.  Officials at the United Nations have warned of an impending humanitarian disaster.  Some 100,000 people have set up camp in one tent city near Bangui airport, close to the peacekeepers base.  UNICEF has warned of a potential disaster in overcrowded camps in and around the capital city, where thee have already been several cases of measles, which could be deadly.

European Union nation states are considering whether to join in the French and African peacekeeping operations in the country, with a meeting on the issue scheduled for Friday.

US Announces No Troops to Iraq Despite the Fall of Fallujah

On Tuesday, officials in the US announced that they will speed up the supply of military equipment to Iraq in order to help the government their fight militant groups in western Anbar province.  The White House also indicated that additional surveillance drones would be delivered within weeks while more Hellfire missiles would be sent in the next few months.  The announcement comes just days after the Iraqi government lost control of key city of Fallujah to Islamic militants.  Fighting in Anbar has led to some of the heaviest clashes in Iraq in past few years.  While reports have indicated that on the ground troops are currently preparing to attack the city of Fallujah, a spokesman for Iraq’s defence ministry indicated on Tuesday that it was not “possible to assault it now” due to fears about civilian casualties.

As the violence has increased, White House spokesman Jay Carney has stated that the US is working closely with officials in Baghdad in order to develop a “holistic strategy” to isolate al-Qaeda affiliated groups.  He further indicated that there had already been some success however the situation remains “fluid,” adding that “we’re accelerating our foreign military sales, deliveries, and are looking to provide an additional shipment of Hellfire missiles as early as this spring.”  US Secretary of State John Kerry has also indicated that no US forces will return to Iraq.  Despite withdrawing from Iraq at the end of 2011, the US remains a key security partner, providing more than US $14 billion (£8 billion) worth of weapons to Baghdad since 2005.

Reports have indicated that much of Fallujah is under control by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, known as ISIS, with Prime Minister Nouri Maliki urging residents to drive them out.  The nearby city of Ramadi is reported to be under the control of powerful Sunni tribes working with local police, opposing pockets of ISIS fighters there.  Despite long-standing grievances against the central Shia-led government, the Ramadi tribes have renewed a pact with senior Iraqi army leaders to dislodge any presence of al-Qaeda.  Since violence erupted, hundreds of residents in Fallujah have fled shelling and air strikes by government forces.  At the same time, the militants have called on Sunni tribes in the area to support them and have urged families who have fled the city to return to their homes.