MS Risk Blog

CAR Security Update

On Tuesday, officials in France vowed to continue their mission in the Central African Republic (CAR) after the death of two elite soldiers, which have highlighted the risks of a mission that aims to disarm rogue rebels who have plunged the country into chaos.  The death of the two French soldiers came hours before French President Francois Hollande visited the country.

First French Losses

Antoine Le Quinio, 22, and Nicolas Vokaer, 23, both members of the 8^th Parachute regiment that is based in Castres, south western France, died overnight Monday after being caught up in a fierce fire fight during a night patrol in the capital city of Bangui, where sectarian clashes last week killed hundreds.  French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian confirmed the first French losses, stating that they would have no impact on the tactics or the size of the 1,600-strong force that Paris has deployed in its former colony.  Claude Bartolone, speaker of France’s National Assembly, told reporters that the soldiers “were injured and very quickly taken to the surgical unit, but unfortunately they could not be saved.”

The French troops, along with African peacekeepers, had launched an operation on Monday to forcibly disarm militiamen who claim to be part of a new national army.  After last week’s clashes, in which the Red Cross has indicated that 394 people were killed in three days of fighting, tensions throughout the country remain high, with fear of continued violence.  While the French army has indicated that it had restored some stability in the capital by Monday night, low-level violence continued on Tuesday.

Following a request from France, the United States announced on Monday that it would help fly African Union (AU) peacekeeping troops into the CAR.  According to a spokesman for US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, US forces have been ordered “to begin transporting forces from Burundi to the Central African Republic.”  US President Barack Obama has also called for calm and has asked the CAR’s transitional government to arrest those who are committing crimes.

Presidential Visit

Meanwhile President Francois Hollande arrived in Bangui on Tuesday after attending a memorial service for South African former president Nelson Mandela in Johannesburg.  Upon his arrival, the French leader paid tribute to his country’s two fallen soldiers.  During the short visit, the French President is expected to meet with Michel Djotodia, the country’s interim president.

Francois Hollande has defended France’s military intervention in the CAR, stating that it was necessary to avoid a bloodbath.  Speaking in Bangui, the French leader stated, “it was time to act.  In Bangui itself, nearly 400 people were killed.  There was no time to procrastinate.”

Elections

France’s envoy to the United Nations announced on Tuesday that his country wants elections in the CAR to be held “as quickly as possible,” preferably by late 2014.  Speaking at UN headquarters in New York, Ambassador Gerard Araud told reporters that “in light of political tensions on the ground, it would be preferable to have elections as quickly as possible, that is to say in the second half of 2014,” adding that “if the elections could take place in the second half of 2014, in the fall of 2014, that could be positive.”  Currently, the CAR has a deadline to hold legislative and president

New report describes cycle of human trafficking from Horn of Africa into Sinai Peninsula

On 4 December, a report entitled “The Human Trafficking Cycle: Sinai and Beyond” was presented to EU home Affairs Commissioner Cecilia Malmström in the European Parliament. This, the second report on the topic, focuses on collusion between authorities and criminal networks in human trafficking from the Horn of Africa into the Sinai Peninsula. Between 2007 and 2012, as many as 30,000 men, women and children were trafficked by Eritrean and Sudanese security officers working with Bedouin gangs.

The report categorises trafficking in two main categories, those who are “kidnapped”, and those who are “smuggled”, leaving voluntarily, but abducted in the process of migration. In both cases, the victims are ultimately transferred to members of the Rashaida and Hidarib Bedouin tribes (either through financial exchange, or surrendered by force), and sent to torture camps in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Many of the victims have been abducted from refugee camps in Ethiopia, Sudan or Eritrea. Most troubling, the report finds that approximately 95% of abductees are from Eritrea.

Nearly 3,000 Eritreans attempt to leave their landlocked nation each month. The disproportionate number of Eritreans abducted stems from three key factors: 1) the diaspora includes a tightly knit community structure and disposable income, which increases the chance of collecting ransom; 2) the lack of alternatives and relative destitution of Eritrean migrants and refugees particularly youth who are forced into conscription and child labour; and 3) the involvement of some Eritrean authorities in trafficking.

Eritreans require an exit visa to leave their nation. Because there is a “shoot to kill” policy at the Eritrea/Ethiopia border, many Eritreans choose to exit the nation through the Sudanese border, seeking shelter in Sudanese refugee camps. The report finds that trafficking would not be possible without the collusion of local Eritrean security officials. Further, many involuntary Eritrean victims are kidnapped by the country’s senior military officers and smuggled into Sudan.

Once in Sudan, the victims’ families are contacted with a threat to sell the hostages to Bedouin traffickers in Sinai if the ransom demand is not met. The report states that the hostages are, “chained together without toilets or washing facilities and dehydrated, starved and deprived of sleep.”

If demands are not met, victims are ultimately sent to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and placed in torture camps as ransom demands continue. Torture methods include “burning, beating, and electrocuting. Some hostages are slashed with knives, or have bottles melted on their skin. Some are repeated [sic] raped; some have been hung.” In addition, some victims have had their organs harvested.

Estimates reveal that between 5,000 and 10,000 of the hostages have died in captivity. Refugees continue to be abducted and held in Sinai, and an increasing number of victims are taken involuntarily from their home countries. Since 2009, nearly £366 million has been extorted from families in ransom payments. Those that escape trafficking risk further abduction, or are detained by Egyptian or Israeli authorities, where they are imprisoned then forced to pay their own deportation and repatriation fees.

Ethnic Tuareg Group Ends Ceasefire Agreement

An ethnic Tuareg separatist group in Mali has announced that it is ending a five-month ceasefire agreement that was reached with the Malian government back in June of this year.   While the rebels have previously threatened to pull out of the peace deal, accusing the central government in Bamako of failing to fulfil its promises, this is the first time they have formally ended the ceasefire.  The rebels have confirmed that they will take up arms, following violence in the northern city of Kidal, a move which will likely effect the security and stability of the entire country as it heads into a second round of parliamentary elections.

On Friday, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad announced that it would return to war against Mali’s army after indicating that one person was killed, and five others injured, in clashes with soldiers at an airport.  The announcement, which has been described by the group’s leader as “…a declaration of war,” comes one day after clashes occurred between Malian troops and Tuareg protesters who prevented Prim Minister Oumar Tatam Ly from visiting the town of Kidal.  According to Mahamadou Djeri Maiga, vice president of the MNLA, “what happened on Thursday is a declaration of war.  We will deliver this war,” adding that “wherever we find the Malian army we will launch the assault against them.  It will be automatic.  The warnings are over.”

On Thursday, several hundred Tuareg demonstrators occupied an airport runway in order to prevent Mali’s Prime Minister from visiting the rebel-controlled north-eastern town of Kidal.  While protesters indicated on Thursday that Malian soldiers had fired directly at “women and children who were demonstrating peacefully,” the central government has since indicated that its soldiers stationed at the airport had been “taken to task by uncontrollable elements” and had fired warning shots after being shot at and hit with stones.  One person was killed in the clashes on Thursday, while three women and two children were injured.  One of the women is in serious condition.

While Thursday’s incident has confirmed that tensions continue to exist between the Malian government and Tuareg rebels, the end of the ceasefire could potentially threaten security throughout Mali.  Furthermore, this will likely have an impact on the second round of parliamentary elections, which are set to take place 15 December, and Mali’s overall process of returning to civilian rule after a Tuareg uprising that led to a coup last year and the occupation of the northern regions of the country by al-Qaeda-linked militants.

The end to the ceasefire could potentially threaten security in northern Mali.  After eighteen months of a political and military crisis, the peace deal was signed between the rebels and the Malian government in June of this year.  The June accord, which was signed in Burkina Faso’s capital Ouagadougou, effectively opened the way for voting to take place in Mali, including in Kidal.  Two rounds of a presidential election occurred in July and August.   Furthermore, up until the agreement was reached, the MNLA, whose ultimate goal is the independence of Azawad, had refused to allow any government soldiers or civil servants to enter the town.  Under the June agreement, the rebels remained in Kidal however they were required to return to their barracks under the supervision of UN peacekeepers.  They were also forced to stop carrying arms in public and dismantle all roadblocks.

Mali Review

Malian Fugitive Recaptured

A Malian fugitive, known as “Cheibani” has been recaptured by French forces following his escape from a Niger prison in June of this year.  The fugitive, Alhassane Ould Mohammed, who escaped from a prison in Niger where he was serving a sentence for the killing of four Saudi tourists along with his alleged participation in the assassination of a US diplomat, was arrested by French soldiers in northern Mali on Tuesday.  Mali’s Chief Prosecutor Daniel Tessogue confirmed the arrest, adding that Cheibani had been arrested along with three other people.  According to Niger’s Justice Minister Marou Mohamed, Cheibani was captured after a tip-off from Niger security officials.  He was found in a hideout situated between the towns of Gao and Kidal.

Cheibani was amongst twenty-two prisoners who escaped from the jail in June after an attack on the prison was launched by suspected Islamist militants.  Following the mass breakout, officials in the United States unsealed an indictment for his arrest.  The indictment specified that Cheibani was wanted for the murder of US diplomat William Bultemeir, who was shot in December 2000 in Niger’s capital city as he was leaving a restaurant with his colleagues.

In September, months after his escape, a US $20,000 (£12,235) reward was announced for information that would lead to his recapture.  At the time of his escape, Cheibani was serving a twenty-year prison sentence in Niger for the murder of four Saudi citizens who were travelling with a Saudi prince on a hunting trip in 2009.

Demonstrators Halt Prime Minister’s Visit

Meanwhile on Thursday, Tuareg demonstrators in the northeastern town of Kidal occupied an airport runway in order to prevent Mali’s Prime Minister Oumar Tatam Ly from visiting the rebel-controlled town.

Shortly after the protests ended, demonstrators indicated that Malian soldiers had shot and wounded three demonstrators, however officials from the Malian army have denied these allegations.  An African military source has indicated that although troops from the UN military supporting mission in Mali, MINUSMA, attempted to stop the demonstrators from occupying and blocking the runway, they failed to remove the protesters.

Isamel Toure, an official in the regional governor’s office confirmed these reports, stating that as the airport was preparing to receive the prime minister’s plane, “several hundred youths and women backed by the MNLA went to Kidal aerodrome, determined to stop the planed from landing.”  Aides of the Prime Minister confirmed the incident, stating that “for the moment,” the prime minister had cancelled his trop.  According to his aides, prior to arriving in Kidal, the prime minister had been visiting Gao, which is located 300 kilometers (185 miles) south of Kidal.

Despite a signed ceasefire between the Malian government and Tuareg rebels, which was reached in June of this year, tensions between the two groups continue to be an issue and a threat to Mali’s stabilization process and lasting peace.

Mali’s Elections Off to Second Round

Officials on Wednesday announced that Mali’s parliamentary elections will enter a second round of voting on December 15, after no party secured an absolute majority in the first round of voting that took place on November 24.

While some 6.5 million Malians were eligible to vote for a new national assembly, with more than 1,000 candidates running for the 147 seats, turnout reached only 38.4 percent.  According to Moussa Sinko Coulibaly, the Minister of Territorial Administration, the turnout was “far short of our expectations.”

The goal of Mali’s new president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, is to give his RPM party, and its allies, a comfortable majority in the new assembly.

The November 24 polls mark Mali’s second major step towards recovery after the country plunged into chaos in the wake of last year’s military coup.  They also mark a finalization of Mali’s transition to democracy after the process was started with the August presidential elections.  The latest elections in Mali have been viewed as generally being peaceful by foreign and national monitors however observers nonetheless regretted the low turnout.

Coup Leader Charged With Murder

Amadou Sanogo, the leader of the 2012 coup which effectively plunged Mali into months of chaos, was on Wednesday charged with murder and complicity to murder.  According to a judicial source, he has been placed in detention pending further investigations.  A source close to the case has indicated that Sanogo has also been charged with kidnapping, with the source noting that “other people” close to the coup leader will be questioned.

His arrest was ordered by investigating judge Yaya Karembe, who at a hearing in Bamako, charged the lieutenant-general with murder.  The hearing in the capital city came just hours after several dozen Malian soldiers forcibly entered Sanogo’s residence, which is located in the city centre, in order to arrest him.

Although Sanogo had been ordered in October to appear in front of a panel to answer questions pertaining to a number of deaths that occurred during a mutiny against him at his former headquarters in the central town of Kati, which is located near Bamako, the summons had been ignored by Sanogo, which sparked indignation amongst Malian politicians and activists.

Despite launching a coup in March of last year, in May 2012, Sanogo, along with his former junta, were granted a general amnesty, with Sanogo receiving the status of former head of state, which included all the accompanying benefits.  Although that status was later withdrawn, Mr. Sanogo was controversially promoted from captain to lieutenant-general in August of his year, a promotion that prompted a number of fellow ex-junta members, who were also seeking promotions, to mutiny at his Kati barracks.  This forced the Malian army to intervene in order to prevent another coup, and further destabilization of security, from occurring.  Shortly after the Malian military intervened, the bodies of three missing soldiers were discovered in and around the barracks.  Around twenty officers, including Sanogo’s former deputy, were subsequently arrested.  Human Rights Watch (HRW), along with other politicians and activists, have called his promotion a “shameful act,” and have argued that the former captain should have been investigated for his alleged involvement in torture.

Security Update: Egypt

Sinai Peninsula:

Ten Egyptian soldiers have been killed, and at least 35 wounded when a roadside car bomb detonated near a two-bus convoy which was carrying soldiers back to Cairo for their leave. The attack, which occurred on the road between Rafah and el-Arish, and is the latest and most severe attack on security forces in the Sinai since the removal of President Mohammed Morsi in July.

The attack targeted troops from the Second Field Army, which is headquartered in Ismailia. The Second and Third Field Army are responsible for security within the restive Sinai Peninsula and the economically critical Suez Canal. The army has heavily stepped up security in the region to ensure safe passage for ships travelling through the canal, and is in the midst of a large operation to eradicate radical groups from the peninsula, which has been rife with extremist elements since the 2011 revolution which saw the removal of President Hosni Mubarak.

As of yet, no group has claimed responsibility; however in another attack, Ansar Bayt al Maqdis (a.k.a. Ansar Jerusalem), an al-Qaeda linked group from the Sinai, has taken responsibility for the murder of a high-ranking member of Egypt’s National Security Agency outside his home in eastern Cairo earlier this week.

A statement posted to jihadist forums on 19 November revealed that the group was responsible for the 17 November shooting that killed Lieutenant Colonel Mohammed Mabrouk. Mabrouk was responsible for the managing the security surrounding the cases against the Muslim Brotherhood,  including the investigation of the escape case of President Morsi and other leading members in the Muslim brotherhood from the prison of Wadi El-Natron  in 2011. Mabrouk was due to testify against former president Mohamed Morsi when his trial begins in January 2014.

According to the statement released by Ansar Bayt al Maqdis, the attack on Mabrouk, conducted by its Mu’tassim Billah Battalion, was in response to the arrest and interrogation of Muslim women by Egyptian security forces.  According to the statement, the battalion is responsible for attempting “to liberate the female prisoners and to pursue who[ever] participated and contributed in capturing them, from officers and individuals of the Interior Ministry.”

Mabrouk was denounced by Ansar Jerusalem as “one of the top tyrants of State Security.” The attack on Mabrouk is “part of the series of operations entitled ‘Release the Female Prisoners from the Hands of the Tyrants’,” the statement continued.

Ansar Bayt al Maqdis also called for action from Egyptians: “Rise to defend your honour even if your lives go with it.”  The group also warned that fighters are “lying in wait [to strike] those like” Mohammed Mabrouk if detained Muslim women are not released. They are seeking “any information that helps us in tracking those tyrant criminals who participated in imprisoning our sisters.”

Currently, protections remain in place in the Suez region; no disruption in the region or service of the canal has been reported.

Cairo

On 19 November, several hundred Egyptians commemorated the deaths of protesters killed in 2011, calling for reforms. Many voiced criticism of the military, something rarely heard in recent times.

Since the removal of Morsi, the Egyptian police and army have been held in high regard. For the police, this is an unusual shift, as a great number of protesters in 2011 where revolting against police brutality. While the security forces have curried favour with a large population of Egyptians, the voice of criticism against the military has begun rise. Supporters of army General Abdel Fatah Al Sisi showed up at Tahrir during the protests, but were chased away by activists.

Protesters in Tahrir said the goals of the 2011 uprising had not been met and accused the security forces of acting mostly with impunity in the intervening two years. Protesters chanted, “Down with the military regime,” and, “We want to protect our country from oppression.” While many claimed not to support the Muslim Brotherhood, they also claimed that the military has more strength than it did before the end of the Mubarak era. One protester said, “We do not want Sisi as president. He is a strong defence minister and he should remain in that position. We want a civilian leader.”

At one point, security forces fired tear gas in an attempt to disperse the crowd, but were unsuccessful. Reluctant to avoid clashes on a sensitive anniversary, they departed.