MS Risk Blog

CAR Elects First Female President

On Monday, amidst continuing violence despite the resignation of Seleka rebel leader Michel Djotodia, the Central African Republic’s (CAR) interim parliament elected a new president.

Bangui mayor Catherine Samba-Panza has been elected the interim president of the CAR, effectively making her the first woman to hold the post.  During a second round of voting by the interim parliament, she defeated her rival, Desire Kolingba, winning seventy-five votes against fifty-three.  The election went to a second round after Ms Samba-Panza failed to secure an outright majority in the first round.

Ms Samba-Panza, a Christian, will succeed the CAR’s first Muslim leader, Michel Djotodia, who resigned on 10 January 2014 as a result of mounting pressure from regional leaders and former colonial power France over his failure to curb the on going violence.

In all, eight candidates were in the running during Monday’s elections.  Amongst them were two sons of former presidents, Sylvain Patasse and Desire Kolingba, respectively the sons of former president Ange-Felix Patasse (in power from 1993 – 2003) and Andre Kolingba (in power from 1981 – 1993).  Another locally familiar name is that of Emile Gros Raymond Nakombo, a banker close to Kolingba who in 2011 ran for the presidency against incumbent Francois Bozize, who took power in a 2003 coup and was toppled by the 2013 Seleka coup.  About 129 members of the National Transitional Council (CNT), which serves as acting parliament with 135 members in all, took part in today’s vote by secret ballot.

Prior to voting, each presidential candidate was given ten minutes in order to make a “statement of intent” to the CNT members who were then tasked with electing a new transitional leader by secret ballot in a single round.  The newly elected president will be tasked with restoring peace in the CAR.

In March 2013, the CAR collapsed after Seleka rebels overthrew the government and installed Mr Djotodia to power.  He however proved to be powerless in controlling his Seleka coalition, with many responsible for the deaths of hundreds of people, mainly from the CAR’s Christian majority.  While some Christian communities responded by forming “anti-balaka” (anti-machete) self defence militias, which were charged with attacking the CAR’s Muslim population, both sides have now ben accused of major abuses, with officials at the United Nations warning of a potential inter-religious “genocide.”

EU Diplomats Vote to Deploy Troops

Meanwhile diplomatic sources have indicated that European Union (EU) foreign ministers agreed, during a meeting in Brussels on Monday, to deploy troops to the CAR in order to bolster African and French forces already on the ground.  The EU “crisis management concept” is the first step towards sending a force.   According to an official statement released shortly after the meeting, EU ministers indicated that the operation would provide “temporary support, for a period of up to six months, to establish a secure environment in the Bangui region, with a view to handling over to the African Union (AU).”  The statement further noted that the plan is to turn the current AU deployment in the CAR into a UN peacekeeping operation, with the aim of stabilizing the situation so that urgently needed humanitarian aid can reach suffering civilians.

While the EU is expected to despatch 400 – 600 European soldiers to Bangui, correspondents have indicated that an EU force of up to 1,000 troops is likely.  They will be tasked with backing the 1,600 French troops of Operation Sangaris, who have been deployed in the CAR since 5 December 2013 under a UN mandate, along with the 4,400 African troops from the African Union’s (AU) MISCA peacekeeping force.  During this week, the EU will seek a mandate at the United Nations for such an operation, with EU experts later travelling to the CAR’s capital city in order to assess the cost.  An EU diplomat has indicated that at the moment, “it is unclear what exactly will be needed,” adding that Greece has offered to host a mission headquarters while Estonia is prepared to send up to fifty-five troops.  Several other countries, including Austria, Finland, Lithuania and Romania, are considering troop contributions.

The agreement for deployment comes as violence continues throughout the CAR despite the resignation of Michel Djotodia ten days ago.  A month and a half into the French intervention, security in Bangui has gradually improved, however sporadic outbreaks of brutal violence still spread fear.  Over this past weekend, the CAR’s capital city, Bangui, was the scene of continued violence as two Muslim men were killed and burnt on Sunday

Barack Obama Announces Changes To IC Spy Programme

In light of last year’s Snowden intelligence leaks, United States President Barack Obama is expected to order the National Security Agency (NSA) to stop storing data from Americans’ phones.   After initially defending the US surveillance programme, in August, the president announced that the US “can and must be more transparent” about its intelligence gathering.

Reports in Washington have indicated that during a speech set for Friday, which is scheduled to take place at the Department of Justice at 11:00 (1600 GMT), President Obama will request Congress to arrange how data is stored and how the US Intelligence Community (IC) will have access to it.   The storing of phone data is just the first in a number of planned changes to the intelligence system that the president is due to announce.  The proposed changes within the IC and how the community gathers its intelligence stem from former intelligence worker Edward Snowden’s continued leaks of information pertaining to the NSA’s spying programme.  The latest revelations made by Mr Snowden, who is wanted for espionage in the US and now lives in exile in Russia, claim that US intelligence agencies have collected and stored 200 million text messages every day across the globe.  According to Mr Snowden, an NSA programme, known as Dishfire, was responsible for extracting and storing data from SMS messages in order to gather location information, contacts and financial data.  The information was later shared with the United Kingdom’s spy agency GCHQ.  While both agencies have defended their activities, stating that they operate within the constraints of the law, many advocates and civil rights groups have called on greater transparency.

President Obama is expected to approve a number of recommendations put forth by a panel that the White House commissioned last year.  If approved, the centrepiece of reforms will be an order to stop the NSA from storing Americans’ phone records.  Storage of such data will instead fall to firms or another third party where it can be queried, however under limited conditions.  In terms of how this will be implemented, the president is expected to leave this decision to Congress and the IC.

Amongst the other proposals that are likely to be approved is the creation of a public advocate position at the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC), where government agencies request permission for mass spying programmes.  Currently, only the US government is represented in front of FISC judges.   In turn, Mr Obama is also expected to extend some privacy protections for foreigners, increase oversight of how the US monitors foreign leaders and limit how long some data can be stored.

According to White House spokesman Jay Carney, the aim of these proposals and changes is to make intelligence activities “more transparent,” adding that this would “give the public more confidence about the problems and the oversight of the programmes.”  However while in the wake of the Snowden leaks, civil rights groups have been requesting significant reductions to powers that government agencies have with respect to the collection of data, many believe that these latest proposals appear to be structured in a manner of broad rules, effectively meaning that they will do little to limit the intelligence-gathering activities of the US IC.

Edward Snowden and the Leaks that Exposed US Intelligence Programme

In May 2013, Edward Snowden, a former contractor of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) left the US shortly after leaking to the media details of extensive internet and phone surveillance carried out by the US IC.   Mr Snowden, who has been granted temporary asylum in Russia, faces espionage charges in the US over his action.

By early June, the scandal of the US spy programme broke when the UK Guardian newspaper reported that the NSA was collecting telephone records of tens of millions of Americans.  At the time, the newspaper published the secret court order, which directed telecommunications company Verizon to hand over all its telephone data to the NSA on an “on going daily basis.”  The newspaper report was later followed by revelations in both the Guardian and Washington Post that the NSA had tapped directly into the servers of nine Internet firms, including Google, Yahoo, Facebook and Microsoft.  This was done in order to track online communication through a surveillance programme known as Prism.  At the time, Britain’s GCHQ was also accused of having gathered information on Internet companies through Prism.

Several days later, it was revealed that Mr Snowden, a former CIA systems analyst, was behind the leaks pertaining to the US and UK surveillance programmes.  He was later charged by US authorities with theft of government property, unauthorized communication of national defence information and wilful communication of classified communications intelligence.

The spy scandal continued to develop when on 21 June, the Guardian reported that officials at GCHQ were taping fibre-optic cables, responsible for carrying global communications, and sharing vast amounts of data with the NSA.  At the time, the paper also revealed that it had obtained documents from Mr Snowden, which indicated that the GCHQ operation, codenamed Tempora, had already been running for eighteen months.   According to reports, GCHQ was able to monitor up to 600 million communications every day throughout that period, with information gathered from the Internet and phone use allegedly being stored for a period of thirty days where it would be sifted and analysed.

A week later, on 29 June, claims by Germany’s Der Spiegel magazine emerged that the NSA has also spied on European Union (EU) officials in the US and in Europe.  At the time, the magazine reported that it had seen leaked NSA documents confirming that the US had spied on EU internal computer networks in Washington and at the 27-member bloc’s UN office in New York.  The files, all provided by Mr Snowden, also allegedly suggested that the NSA had conducted an electronic eavesdropping operation in a building in Brussels, where the EU Council of Ministers and the European Council were located.  While it remains unknown as to what information the US IC may have obtained in the operation, reports have suggested that details pertaining to European positions on trade and military matters may have been obtained.

On 24 October, Italian weekly L’Espresso reported that the NSA and GCHQ had been eavesdropping on Italian phone calls and Internet traffic.  The revelations were later sourced to Mr Snowden.  It is alleged that three undersea cables with terminals in Italy were targeted in the operation.  That same day, the German government summoned the US ambassador after German media reported that the NSA had eavesdropped on Chancellor Angela Merkel’s mobile phone.

French President Francois Hollande also expressed alarm at reports that millions of French calls had been monitored by the US.  In all, the Guardian later reported that the NSA had monitored the phone calls of thirty-five world leaders.  In turn, according to a secret file leaked to the Guardian, a total of thirty-eight embassies and missions had been the “targets” of US spying operations.  On 1 July, it was reported that amongst those countries targeted by the operations were France, Italy, Greece, Japan, South Korea and India.  EU embassies and missions both in Washington and New York were also reported to be under surveillance.

On 10 July, it was revealed by Brazil’s O Globo newspaper that the NSA had ran a continent-wide surveillance programme.  At the time, the newspaper had cited leaked documents which indicated that at least until 2002, the NSA had ran the operation from a base in Brasilia, seizing web traffic and details of phone calls from around the region.  The newspaper further indicated that US agents worked with Brazilian telecoms firms in order to eavesdrop on oil and energy firms, foreign visitors to Brazil and major players in Mexico’s drug wars.   By September, specific claims that the emails and phone calls of the presidents of Brazil and Mexico had been intercepted were revealed.  This prompted Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff to cancel a state visit to the US, the first high-profile diplomatic move since the scandal unfolded.

By mid-August, documents leaked to the Washington Post revealed that the NSA broke US privacy laws hundreds of times every year.   Later that month, the Washington Post reported that the US IC had a “black budget” for secret operations, which in 2013 had amounted to US $53 billion.

After fleeing to Hong Kong, Edward Snowden confirmed to the South China Morning Post that the NSA had led more than 61,000 hacking operations worldwide, which included many operations in Hong Kong and mainland China.  He indicated that targets in Hong Kong had included the Chinese University along with public officials and businesses.

Piracy at Lowest Level in Six Years; Westgate Trial Commences in Kenya

Piracy at sea is at its lowest level in six years, with 264 attacks recorded, a 40% drop since Somali piracy peaked in 2011.

The drop in worldwide piracy attacks has greatly been due to the dramatic drop of incidents recorded in waters off Somalia.  In 2013, the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) reported fifteen incidents off Somalia.  According to its records, this is down from 75 in 2012 and 237 in 2011.  The increase of armed guards on vessels, coupled with international navy patrols and the “stabilizing influence” of Somalia’s government have aided in deterring pirate.   According to Pottengal Mukundan, IMB’s director, “the single biggest reason for the drop in worldwide piracy is the decrease in Somali piracy off the coast of East Africa,” adding that “it is imperative to continue combined international efforts to tackle Somali piracy.  Any complacency at this stage could re-kindle pirate activity.”

The IMB’s annual global piracy report has indicated that more than 300 people were taken hostage at sea in 2013 and 21 were injured, nearly all with guns or knives.

Examining global piracy figures, Indonesia witnessed the most pirate attacks last year, accounting for more than 50 of all reported incidents.  However it must be noted that attacks in waters of Indonesia were “low-level opportunistic thefts, not to be compared with the more serious incidents off Africa.”  Piracy off West Africa made up 19% of attacks worldwide in 2013.  According to the IMB report, Nigerian pirates accounted for 31 of the region’s 51 attacks.  These attacks were “particularly violent,” with one crew member killed, and thirty-six people kidnapped and held onshore for ransom.

In November 2013, a United Nations and World Bank report indicated that pirates operating off the Horn of Africa, which are some of the world’s busiest shipping and humanitarian aid routes, had netted more than US $400 million (£251 million) in ransom money between 2005 and 2012.

Meanwhile in neighboring Kenya, the trial of four men charged over the Westgate shopping centre siege began in Kenya’s capital Nairobi.

The four suspected foreigners have denied the charges of aiding a “terrorist group,” and of being in Kenya illegally.  However none of the  men – named as Mohammed Ahmed Abdi, Liban Abdullah, Adnan Ibrahim, and Hussein Hassan – have been accused of being the gunmen who carried out the attack.  While their nationalities have not been disclosed, they are said to be ethnic Somalis.

Police officials in Kenya have also indicated that the four accused had sheltered the attackers in their homes in Eastleigh a Somali neighbourhood in Nairobi, and that they were in contact with the gunmen four days prior to the siege being carried out.

During the first day of the trial, the court heard testimony from security guards who saw what happened when the gunmen launched the attack in September 2013, killing at least sixty-seven people.  During his testimony, guard Stephen Juma told the court that he had been directing traffic outside the upmarket shopping centre when a car pulled up and three men jumped out.  According to Mr Juma, one of them immediately shot dead a shopper, adding that “I began to hear gunshots, I made a radio call for help while running to the main entrance.”  Mr Juma further noted that he could not identify any of the gunmen as their heads and faces had been covered with black headscarves.

The four are the first to be charged over the attack, which was the worst in Kenya since 224 people were killed in the 1998 bombing of the US embassy.  Reports have indicated that around forty witnesses are expected to give evidence at the trial, which is likely to last around a week.

Somalia’s al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab confirmed days after the siege at they were behind the attack, indicating that one of its suicide brigades carried out the siege.  Although al-Shabaab is fighting for the creation of an Islamic state in Somalia, the militant group has on numerous occasions carried out attacks in neighboring Kenya in a bid to avenge the presence of Kenyan troops in Somalia to bolster the UN-backed central government.

Car Bombing in Maiduguri, Nigeria

A car bomb has exploded in the north eastern Nigerian city of Maiduguri, with fears that the latest attack to target the region has left many casualties.

At least seventeen people were killed on Tuesday when an explosion targeted a busy market on the public holiday that marks the birth of the Prophet Mohammed.  Police officials have indicated that the explosion occurred at about 1:30 PM (1230 GMT) around the post office area of Maiduguri, which has been hit previously by Boko Haram militants.  According to Lawan Tanko, police chief for Borno state, “from our preliminary reports, we have 17 dead and at least five injured from the blast in the post office area,” however he warned that the toll could rise as casualties were taken from the bustling market to medical centres for treatment, adding that “these figures are likely to change by the time we get full reports from our men in the field.

Initial reports at the scene suggest that the blast was caused by either a car bomb or suicide bomber, however there has not yet been any confirmations from the authorities.  Police Chief Tanko has noted that “the bomb was detonated in the midst of a large crowd of traders while a truck carrying firewood was passing by.”  A witness to the bombing stated that “an explosive device concealed in a sack was abandoned near a butcher’s stall by unknown persons around Kasuwar Jagwal.”

The explosion caused panic in the city, where residents were in the midst of celebrating Eid Milad un Nabi.  While the market has since been closed, with police officers carrying out investigations, the rest of the city remains on high alert as possible attacks and suicide bombings may be carried out in the coming days.

Over the past several weeks, Maiduguri has witnessed a number of attacks.  On 2 December 2013, the northern spiritual home city of Boko Haram was raided by Boko Haram insurgents who burnt aircraft, seized weapons and razed buildings at military bases throughout the city.  On Sunday, suspected Boko Haram gunmen killed five at a village market located 22 kilometres from Maiduguri.  During the attack, the militants burnt cars, shops and tents storing grain.

US Envoy Meets with Rebel Leader in South Sudan: Calm Restored in CAR

Efforts to broker a ceasefire in South Sudan continue as a United States special envoy, along with other mediators, hold a meeting with rebel leader Riek Machar.

Reports have indicated that US special envoy Donald Booth met with Mr Machar at an undisclosed location in South Sudan.  Mr Booth later indicated that mediators would continue to press for the release of jailed associates of Mr Machar for them to attend peace talks in Ethiopia.  A rebel spokesman has also indicated that a ceasefire would be signed if Mr Machar’s associates were freed.  Hussein Mar Nyout has also dismissed claims made by the South Sudanese government that is forces were now in full control of Unity State.  He also described as baseless a government allegation that forces loyal to Mr Machar had damaged oil facilities there.

Calm Restored in the Central African Republic Following Leaders Departure

In the Central African Republic, after weeks of sectarian clashes, restive calm has returned to the streets Bangui, with banks, offices and markets re-opening.  The country’s interim leader has also announced that the days of looting and revenge attacks were over.

Sources on the ground have reported that local residents of Bangui now feel safe enough to leave their homes across the city.  The police have also returned to the streets while some local residents have stated that the city is the busiest it has been for a year.  Many believe that this feels like a turning point as in recent weeks, there has always been at least one district, whether Muslim or Christian, where violence has resulted in people staying at home.

Following the rebel leader’s resignation on Friday, interim leader and speaker of the provisional parliament Alexandre-Ferdinand Nguendet vowed that the “anarchy” that has gripped the country would be swiftly brought to an end, adding that “the chaos is over, the pillaging is over, the revenge attacks are over.”  He also issued a stern warning to warring militiamen from the Seleka group and the anti-balaka Christian fighters set up to oppose them.  Speaking at a police headquarters in the capital Bangui, he stated “to the ex-Seleka, to the anti-balaka and the lovers of looting, I’m giving you a severe warning:  The party is over.”

The return of soldiers and police to duty was another encouraging sign for the CAR after weeks of horrific sectarian violence.   Over the weekend, hundreds of people lined up to re-enlist in the army, following an appeal from the chief of staff.  Many of them had either deserted after the rebel takeover, or left in order to join the vigilante groups.

In recent months, the capital city has been riven by sectarian violence, with about 20% of the 4.6 million population said to have fled their homes.

Following months of fighting, Michel Djotodia seized power in March 2013, effectively becoming the CAR’s first Muslim leader.  Although he later disbanded his Seleka rebels, attacks on Christian civilians around the country continued, prompting the formation of vigilante groups, which targeted Muslims.  On 10 January 2014, following intense pressure from the CAR’s neighbor’s, Michel Djotodia, along with Prime Minister Nicholas Tiengaye, stepped down.  The transitional national council now has two weeks in order to select a new President.

While the situation in Bangui is calm, the mood could quickly turn.  On Monday, the Redo Cross reported that about fifteen people were killed ove the weekend, confirming that a degree of tension throughout the country