MS Risk Blog

Japan adopts new national security strategy amidst tensions in East Asia

Today, the 17^th of December, the Japanese government has released its new national security strategy. It includes commitments to increase military spending and investment in new technologies, largely aimed at countering China’s growing maritime power and the ongoing dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. A more robust military posture is also a cornerstone of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s right wing nationalist politics, something that is destined to prove controversial both within Japan, and also in the wider region, with China and both Koreas certain to react with hostility to any perceived return to ‘Japanese militarism’.

Though co-operation with the United States (which guarantees Japan’s military security) seems likely to remain the primary feature of Japan’s defensive posture for the foreseeable future, moves towards more independence and assertiveness seem also seem likely to increase over coming years. The new national security strategy would help provide for this, with a 5% spending increase allowing for the purchase of more equipment for Japan’s already modern military. This will apparently include new naval destroyers, surveillance drones, fighter aircraft and Osprey tilt rotor aircraft. A new assault force (essentially a marine corps) equipped with amphibious landing craft, will also be created.

Much of this development is in response to the increasingly assertive presence of the Chinese military in the region, particularly in the maritime sphere. As China pursues a blue water navy, it is investing extremely heavily in new warships in order to expand it’s control in East Asian waters. This included, last year, the completion of China’s first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning. Though the Liaoning is a refurbished Soviet aircraft carrier and not state of the art, it is allowing the Chinese to develop and train personnel for deployment on their own indigenously built aircraft carriers, which are scheduled to begin entering active service around 2020.

China’s increasingly assertive role has manifested in continuing tensions over a collection of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea, controlled by Japan and known as the Senkakus (though called the Diaoyu by China). These islands are a continuing flashpoint between the two nations, both as a source of national pride and also because of the rich natural resources and fishing fields in the area. Recently, China has unilaterally expanded its Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) to cover a large swathe of the East China sea, a move that has provoked criticism from Japan, South Korea and the United States. It is worth noting that Japan’s own ADIZ is also of a similar size, and has also been expanded in a similar fashion in the past. Japan is also engaged in a territorial dispute over islands controlled by South Korea, as well as a long running dispute with Russia over the Northern Territories. Japan is also within missile range of North Korea, and feels threatened by its nuclear program and potentially destabilising actions.

Any Japanese re-militarisation would prove an extremely controversial affair. The legacy of the Second World War remains strong in East Asia, with the Chinese and Korean populace hostile to a Japan that they feel often refuses to face up to its wartime behaviour, particularly involving the usage of comfort women (native peoples forced into prostitution for the Japanese armed forces). Prime Minister Abe’s stringent nationalism is particularly marked – he has been ambivalent about admitting the war crimes committed by the Japanese armed forces, has denied the coercive role of the military in procuring comfort women, and has openly questioned whether Japan should be defined an ‘aggressor’ during the war, arguing school books should give a more positive view of Japan’s wartime role and behaviour.

Within Japan, Abe’s right wing nationalism is also controversial. A recent implementation of a hard-line new state secrets law promoted demonstrations in Tokyo, while Abe’s desire to overturn Japan’s pacifist constitution is well known. It would be difficult for Abe to do this currently, as he would require a two thirds majority in both houses of parliament as well as a successful referendum. Many on the Japanese left are apparently concerned that Abe is using the threat of a rising China to ‘re-militarise through the back door’ and to meet his own nationalist aims as opposed to external threats.

Despite frequent sabre rattling between China, both Koreas and Japan over their various disagreements and claims in the region, an imminent deterioration in East Asian stability is still very unlikely. However, the long term strategic issues in the region posed by a rising China, a US suffering from a stretched defence budget and declining influence, a remilitarised and more aggressive Japan and an unpredictable North Korea are extremely serious. Any conflict in the region would also have serious economic consequences world-wide, as China, Japan and South Korea are all major players in the global economy.

Mali’s Parliamentary Election Results Released

According to provisional results announced by the government on Tuesday, the party of Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita, and its allies, have won the West African country’s parliamentary elections.

Minister of Territorial Administration Moussa Sinko Coulibaly announced on state television that the Rally for Mali (RPM) party, along with its junior partners, had secured 115 of the 147 seats in the national assembly following a second round of voting that occurred on Sunday.  The minister further noted that the exact breakdown was still being worked out.  The Union for the Republic of Democracy (URD), the party of beaten presidential candidate Soumaila Cisse, will have between 17 and 19 members in the new parliament, effectively allowing Cisse to become the leader of the opposition.  While the official results will be confirmed by the country’s constitutional court in the coming days, it appears that the RPM party have made good on a promise to deliver “a comfortable majority” to smooth the path for reforms that the president plans to put in place in order to rebuild Mali’s stagnant economy and to ease the ethnic tensions that are still an issue in the northern region of the country.  Turnout for the second round of voting reached 37.3 percent, a drop from the 38.6 percent that was achieved during the first round, which itself was deemed disappointing by local and international officials.  The second round of parliamentary voting was Mali’s fourth nationwide ballot in less than five months, with some observers blaming voting fatigue for the low turnout.  Despite a terrorist attack being carried out the day before the elections, there were no serious incidents reported during the ten hours of voting however many voters were believed to have stayed away because of the recent upsurge in rebel attacks against African troops tasked with election security alongside French and Malian soldiers.  On Saturday, two Senegalese UN peacekeepers were killed, and seven others wounded, when a suicide bomber ploughed his explosives-laden car into a bank they were guarding in the northeastern town of Kidal.  The elections mark the completion of Mali’s return to democracy after the country was upended by a coup last year.   Louis Michel, the European Union’s chief election observer in Mali indicated on Monday that his team had positively evaluated 98 percent of the 705 polling stations observed during the election.  He further noted that the “legal framework” for the polls “remains aligned with international standards for democratic elections.”

Meanwhile officials reported on Tuesday that militants had shelled a camp, where French troops and the United Nations MINUSMA peacekeeping force are stationed, in northern Mali.  According to military sources, “two shells were fired Monday night by unidentified persons at the Kidal camp for French troops and MINUSMA,” adding that there was “no damage or casualties.”  The attack was later confirmed by a French military source stationed in Mali who indicated that the shells passed safely over the camp, missing their targets.  The attack comes amidst an upsurge in violence in Mali’s north.

Malians Vote in the Wake of Another Attack

Two United Nations peacekeepers have been killed in a car bomb blast in the northeastern Malian town of Kidal, overshadowing the second round of parliamentary elections that were held on Sunday.

Malian Elections

On Sunday, Malians voted in the second round of parliamentary elections, which are intended to cap the nation’s return to democracy but which were overshadowed by the deaths of two UN peacekeepers in a militant attack that was carried out on Saturday.

Speaking shortly after casting his ballot in the capital city, Mali’s President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita stated, “this second round establishes the recovery on a foundation of legitimacy in this country.  It will give us more strength, more power to say ‘Mali’ and that’s what Mali needs.”

In the first round of elections, which took place on 24 November, nineteen of the national assembly’s 147 seats were allocated, with voter turnout at 38.6 per cent, a drop of almost 13 percentage points from the first round of voting during the presidential elections.  Shortly after the conclusion of the first round of parliamentary voting, Louis Michel, chief of the European Union (EU) observation mission, called on “all political actors” to turn out in the second round, adding that “in the specific context of Mali, voting is not only a right, it is a moral duty.”

While there were no serious incidents reported during the ten hours of voting, polling stations throughout the country were reporting turnout as low as fifteen per cent, as voters were scared away by a recent upsurge in rebel attacks against African troops tasked with election security alongside French and Malian soldiers.

Sources on the ground have indicated that polling stations in Bamako reported an estimated turnout of just fifteen per cent.  In Koulikoro, located 50 kilometres (37 miles) southwest of Bamako, many residents indicated that they were not intending to participate as they were unimpressed with the candidates and feared Islamist violence.  The second round of parliamentary elections is Mali’s fourth nationwide ballot since July, with some reports indicating that the low turnout may also be due to a lack of interest due to voting fatigue.  In the north of Mali, voting took place without incident in the regions of Gao and Timbuktu, with seats in Kidal already decided in the first round.   Maiga Seyma, the deputy mayor of Gao, indicated that turnout appeared to be good in its 88 polling stations and that the voting had opened in an atmosphere of calm.

The outcome of the election is expected to be announced by the government before the end of Friday, with the president’s Rally for Mali (RPM) party vowing to deliver “a comfortable majority” to smooth the path for reforms he plans to put in place in order to rebuild Mali’s stagnant economy and ease the simmering ethnic tensions in the north.

Explosion Overshadows Elections

A suicide attack on United Nations forces in northern Mali on Saturday killed two Senegalese soldiers in what a Malian jihadist leader said was retaliation for African countries’ support of a French army operation against Islamist militants.

The blast, which occurred when a suicide bomber ploughed his explosives-laden vehicle into the Malian Bank of Solidarity in Kidal, killed the two peacekeepers who were guarding the bank.  A government statement indicated that the car “struck the main door of the bank, killing in addition to the suicide bomber two Senegalese soldiers of MINUSMA and injuring six other people.”  The statement further noted that five sustained serious injuries – three peacekeepers and two Malian soldiers – who were later evacuated to Gao.

Sultan Ould Badi, a Malian jihadist linked to a number of armed groups, has indicated that the latest attack was in retaliation for African countries’ support of the French-led military operation against Islamist rebels in northern Mali.  He further noted “we are going to respond all across Azawad and in other lands…with other operations against France’s crusades.”  Badi, a member of northern Mali’s Arab and Tuareg minority groups, rose to prominence kidnapping European hostages in the region and selling them on to armed Islamist groups.  He later joined AQIM and was close to one of the group’s top commanders, Abdelhamid Abou Zeid, who was killed while fighting the French army in northern Mali in late February of this year.  After Zeid’s death, Badi joined another al-Qaeda-linked group, the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), before launching his own small radical group.  According to a Malian security source, Badi current acts as an intermediary between the various jihadist groups that operate in northern Mali.

Over the past week, the French army has been carrying out an operation against al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) militant north of Timbuktu.  According to French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, nineteen militants have been killed.

Also on Saturday, Seyba Diarra, the right-hand man of coup leader Amadou Sanogo, was detained on charges of assassination.  According to sources close to the investigation, Diarra had promised to “cooperate frankly” with investigators in order to shed light on a mass grave containing twenty-one bodies that was discovered on December 4 near the capital Bamako.  The dead are believed to be “red berets” loyal to the president overthrown in the coup, Amadou Toumani Toure,  The discovery of the mass grave came one week after Sanogo’s arrest and detention, after which about fifteen mainly military aides were also arrested.  The government has since indicated that “for now,” Sanogo was charged with involvement in a kidnapping, however a source close to judge Yaya Karembe has stated that he faces charges including murder.

CAR Security Update

On Tuesday, officials in France vowed to continue their mission in the Central African Republic (CAR) after the death of two elite soldiers, which have highlighted the risks of a mission that aims to disarm rogue rebels who have plunged the country into chaos.  The death of the two French soldiers came hours before French President Francois Hollande visited the country.

First French Losses

Antoine Le Quinio, 22, and Nicolas Vokaer, 23, both members of the 8^th Parachute regiment that is based in Castres, south western France, died overnight Monday after being caught up in a fierce fire fight during a night patrol in the capital city of Bangui, where sectarian clashes last week killed hundreds.  French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian confirmed the first French losses, stating that they would have no impact on the tactics or the size of the 1,600-strong force that Paris has deployed in its former colony.  Claude Bartolone, speaker of France’s National Assembly, told reporters that the soldiers “were injured and very quickly taken to the surgical unit, but unfortunately they could not be saved.”

The French troops, along with African peacekeepers, had launched an operation on Monday to forcibly disarm militiamen who claim to be part of a new national army.  After last week’s clashes, in which the Red Cross has indicated that 394 people were killed in three days of fighting, tensions throughout the country remain high, with fear of continued violence.  While the French army has indicated that it had restored some stability in the capital by Monday night, low-level violence continued on Tuesday.

Following a request from France, the United States announced on Monday that it would help fly African Union (AU) peacekeeping troops into the CAR.  According to a spokesman for US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, US forces have been ordered “to begin transporting forces from Burundi to the Central African Republic.”  US President Barack Obama has also called for calm and has asked the CAR’s transitional government to arrest those who are committing crimes.

Presidential Visit

Meanwhile President Francois Hollande arrived in Bangui on Tuesday after attending a memorial service for South African former president Nelson Mandela in Johannesburg.  Upon his arrival, the French leader paid tribute to his country’s two fallen soldiers.  During the short visit, the French President is expected to meet with Michel Djotodia, the country’s interim president.

Francois Hollande has defended France’s military intervention in the CAR, stating that it was necessary to avoid a bloodbath.  Speaking in Bangui, the French leader stated, “it was time to act.  In Bangui itself, nearly 400 people were killed.  There was no time to procrastinate.”

Elections

France’s envoy to the United Nations announced on Tuesday that his country wants elections in the CAR to be held “as quickly as possible,” preferably by late 2014.  Speaking at UN headquarters in New York, Ambassador Gerard Araud told reporters that “in light of political tensions on the ground, it would be preferable to have elections as quickly as possible, that is to say in the second half of 2014,” adding that “if the elections could take place in the second half of 2014, in the fall of 2014, that could be positive.”  Currently, the CAR has a deadline to hold legislative and president

New report describes cycle of human trafficking from Horn of Africa into Sinai Peninsula

On 4 December, a report entitled “The Human Trafficking Cycle: Sinai and Beyond” was presented to EU home Affairs Commissioner Cecilia Malmström in the European Parliament. This, the second report on the topic, focuses on collusion between authorities and criminal networks in human trafficking from the Horn of Africa into the Sinai Peninsula. Between 2007 and 2012, as many as 30,000 men, women and children were trafficked by Eritrean and Sudanese security officers working with Bedouin gangs.

The report categorises trafficking in two main categories, those who are “kidnapped”, and those who are “smuggled”, leaving voluntarily, but abducted in the process of migration. In both cases, the victims are ultimately transferred to members of the Rashaida and Hidarib Bedouin tribes (either through financial exchange, or surrendered by force), and sent to torture camps in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Many of the victims have been abducted from refugee camps in Ethiopia, Sudan or Eritrea. Most troubling, the report finds that approximately 95% of abductees are from Eritrea.

Nearly 3,000 Eritreans attempt to leave their landlocked nation each month. The disproportionate number of Eritreans abducted stems from three key factors: 1) the diaspora includes a tightly knit community structure and disposable income, which increases the chance of collecting ransom; 2) the lack of alternatives and relative destitution of Eritrean migrants and refugees particularly youth who are forced into conscription and child labour; and 3) the involvement of some Eritrean authorities in trafficking.

Eritreans require an exit visa to leave their nation. Because there is a “shoot to kill” policy at the Eritrea/Ethiopia border, many Eritreans choose to exit the nation through the Sudanese border, seeking shelter in Sudanese refugee camps. The report finds that trafficking would not be possible without the collusion of local Eritrean security officials. Further, many involuntary Eritrean victims are kidnapped by the country’s senior military officers and smuggled into Sudan.

Once in Sudan, the victims’ families are contacted with a threat to sell the hostages to Bedouin traffickers in Sinai if the ransom demand is not met. The report states that the hostages are, “chained together without toilets or washing facilities and dehydrated, starved and deprived of sleep.”

If demands are not met, victims are ultimately sent to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and placed in torture camps as ransom demands continue. Torture methods include “burning, beating, and electrocuting. Some hostages are slashed with knives, or have bottles melted on their skin. Some are repeated [sic] raped; some have been hung.” In addition, some victims have had their organs harvested.

Estimates reveal that between 5,000 and 10,000 of the hostages have died in captivity. Refugees continue to be abducted and held in Sinai, and an increasing number of victims are taken involuntarily from their home countries. Since 2009, nearly £366 million has been extorted from families in ransom payments. Those that escape trafficking risk further abduction, or are detained by Egyptian or Israeli authorities, where they are imprisoned then forced to pay their own deportation and repatriation fees.