MS Risk Blog

Libyan Prime-Minister Steps Down, Nation Seeks Third Prime Minister in Two Months

On Sunday, Libyan Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thani announced that he would resign from office. He is the second prime minister to step down in two months. Al-Thani, who was named acting prime minister in March of this year, was officially appointed to the role of Prime Minister on 8 April. Less than a week later, he decided to step down following an attack on him and his family.

While the details of the attack have not been released, a neighbourhood resident stated that Al-Thani and his family came under attack by a militia as his convoy neared his home. The family escaped the attack, however when they fled to a neighbourhood near to Tripoli’s airport road, where heavy gunfire broke out. No injuries have been reported. This is the second attack on al Thani’s family. In September 2013, while al-Thani was Defence Minister, his son was kidnapped in Tripoli. He was released earlier this year.

Militias have frequently targeted members of the Libyan government in the chaos following the end of the nation’s civil war. On 6 January, The head of Libya’s parliament, Mohamed al-Magariaf, survived an assassination attempt in his home. Weeks later on 29 January, Al-Sadik Abdel-Karim, Libya’s interior minister, survived a barrage of bullets attacking his car as he travelled to a meeting. In October 2013, then-Prime Minister Ali Zeidan was kidnapped at gunpoint and held by militia members in what Zeidan called “an attempted coup.”

Foreign diplomats are also not immune to abduction. On 15 April, gunman -suspected militia members- abducted Jordan’s ambassador to Libya, demanding the release of a Libyan Islamist militant. In March, unidentified gunmen kidnapped Mohamed bin Sheikh, secretary to the Tunisian ambassador in Tripoli. There are no reports indicating he has been released. In January, gunmen detained six Egyptian diplomats and embassy employees, demanding the release of a Libyan militia commander in Egypt.

In his resignation letter, posted on Libya’s government’s website, al-Thani called the attempt on him and his family a “cowardly attack,” and added, “I do not accept a single drop of Libyan blood be shed because of me and I do not accept to be a reason for fighting among Libyans because of this position […]Therefore I apologize for not accepting my designation as interim prime minister.”

Al-Thani will remain interim prime minster until a replacement can be found to lead the caretaker government.

Nigeria Launches Search for Abducted Schoolgirls

The Nigerian military has joined the search for at least 100 teenage girls who were abducted from a secondary school in the remote north-eastern region of Nigeria.  It is believed that Boko Haram militants are behind the kidnapping and that they may have taken the group to a forest located near the Cameroonian border.  Officials have indicated that the air force, army, police and local volunteers are involved in the search.

Sources have indicated that the gunmen, riding in trucks and on motorcycles, stormed the town after sundown, torching several buildings before opening fire on troops who were guarding the school.  The gun battle, which occurred on Monday, reportedly lasted several hours however the militants were ultimately able to overpower the troops and enter the school.  According to multiple eyewitnesses, some of the schoolgirls in the Chibok area of southern Borno state narrowly escaped their kidnappers by jumping off a truck in the middle of the night as the gunmen sought to take them away.  According to a security source, “we were able to follow the path of the trucks and we found it broke down deep in the bush,” adding “we are now trying to locate the whereabouts of the abducted girls.”  A local politician has indicated that about fifty army soldiers had been stationed near the school ahead of annual exams.

Boko Haram has repeatedly attacked schools in the northeast region, during an insurgency that has killed thousands since 2009.  In an attack earlier this year in Borno state, eyewitnesses reported that Boko Haram gunmen had surrounded a girl’s school, forcing the student to leave and ordering them to immediately return to their villages.  The militant group has also been blamed for a series of school massacres, including the mass shooting of students in their sleep earlier this year in Yobe state.  Such attacks, coupled with Boko Haram’s insurgency, have crippled education in Borno, with schools across the state being shut down in a bid to curb such attacks.

Al Qaeda weapons ship docks in Aden

11 April- A ship manned by al Qaeda militants and loaded with weapons arrived at Yemen’s port in Aden. As the militants began to unload the weapons, they clashed with from Yemen’s anti –smuggling unit, and re-boarded the ship. As the militants sailed away from the dock, they were followed by Yemeni coast guard and navy, however security forces lost the trail of the ship. It is reported that two militants were killed by security forces; however it is unclear whether they were killed in clashes at the port or on sea.The Yemeni Interior minister had issued a warning on 9 April that an al Qaeda ship had departed from Djbouti, and was thought to be loaded with weapons and heading to Aden, approximately 154 nautical miles away. The ship was thought to be manned by militants from Yemen’s eastern Hadramout province. During the 2011 Arab Spring, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) used the chaos to their advantage and seized control of vast areas in Yemen’s south, including Hadramout. Yemeni military and counter-terrorism efforts have allowed the nation to successfully recapture the land; however the region remains a stronghold for AQAP militants.

Yemen has experienced a large amount of weapons smuggling in recent years. Last year, a senior Yemeni official confirmed that weapons smugglers are taking advantage of the many small, unpopulated islands in the Red Sea to engage in criminal activities. The anonymous official said, “It is easy for large ships to unload their cargo there, with this later being smuggled into Yemen on smaller fishing boats.”

Arms are smuggled into Yemen for two main reasons: first, they are used in terror tactics and political by militants, and second, they are for financial profit, often being sold into nearby countries.

Yemen has a long coastline, approximately 2,200 km (1,367 miles), however Yemen does not have strong maritime security. The nation’s naval force consists of (as of 2011) only 1700 troop and 20 patrol ships. They lack sufficient personnel and equipment to effectively monitor their maritime coast. Officials have complained that large arms shipments are entering through the port, not only for use by AQAP, but also by Yemen’s Houthi (“Youth”) movement, an insurgent group that has been present in Yemen since 2004.

Twin Blasts Rock Nigerian Capital

Twin blasts at a packed bus station in Nigeria’s capital on Monday have killed more than seventy people.

Officials reported Monday that more than seventy people have been killed in two blasts that were carried out in crowded bus station on the outskirts of Nigeria’s capital, Abuja.  Abbas Idris, head of the Abuja Emergency Relief Agency, has stated that so far officials have confirmed 71 people dead and 124 injured, however these numbers are likely to rise in the coming days.   The cause of the explosions, which occurred at the Nyanya Bus Park roughly 5 kilometres (three miles) south of Abuja, was not immediately clear however security officials at the scene are currently working to determine the cause of the explosions.  For now, they are suspecting that the explosion occurred inside a vehicle.  While no group has claimed responsibility for the attacks, officials in Abuja believe Boko Haram militants are likely behind it.

The incident occurred as commuters were about to board buses and taxis to go to work in central Abuja.  The blast ripped a hole four feet deep (1.2 metres) in the ground of Nyanya Motor Park and destroyed more than thirty vehicles, causing secondary explosions as their fuel tanks ignited and burned.

The capital city been previously attacked by Boko Haram insurgents.  In 2011, it carried out a suicide bombing at a United Nations building in Abuja, killing at least 26 six peoples.  The incident has been one of the group’s most prominent attacks.  More recently however, the group’s violence has been concentrated in the remote north eastern region of the country.  If Monday’s attack is confirmed by Boko Haram, the attack on the outskirts of Abuja would cast further doubt on the military’s claims that the insurgents have been weakened and lack the capacity to strike prominent targets.

This year, Boko Haram militants have killed more than 1,500 civilians in three states in north eastern Nigeria.  Although the Nigerian government launched a military operation in May last year, aimed at ending the near four year insurgency, since then, the militants have been pushed out of the major city centres in the states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa and have relocated into the villages and surrounding areas where they have continued to carry out violent attacks.  They have also been suspected of crossing the porous borders between Nigeria and Cameroon, where they have taken shelter from the on going military operations and where they have carried out attacks.

Bringing Stability to Guinea-Bissau

Voters in the West African nation are set to go to the polls on 13 April in what is being seen as a milestone in a country that over the past three decades has suffered five coups.

The upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections are the first to be held since the 2012 coup that overthrew interim President Raimundo Pereira.  Incumbent President Manuel Serifo Nhamadjo, who had led the country’s transitional government since 2012, will not be standing at this Sunday’s elections, pledging to hand over power when a new head of state has been inaugurated.

Will the Elections be Credible?

One of the main reasons behind why Guinea-Bissau has suffered a number of coups is the overarching influence that the military has in political.  International pressure and the conduct of the military will therefore be key.  The United Nations has already indicated that the country’s return to stability will depend in part on credible elections.  The UN has vowed to impose “targeted sanctions” against those who undermine the country’s efforts to restore constitutional order.  It has also specifically warned military leaders against “meddling in the electoral process, or ignoring the outcome.”  In response, the military has promised “zero” tolerance for fraud.

Key Issues

Since 1980, the five coups have taken place resulted in chronic instability and poverty for the country’s 1.6 million people.  The next president will therefore need to remove the army from politics in order to prevent more coups and to enhance political stability.  The new president will also need to bolster the fight against drug trafficking, as the country is seen as a transit point in the smuggling of South American cocaine into Europe.  According to the United Kingdom’s All-Parliamentary Group for Guinea-Bissau, the country “is widely acknowledged to be one of the world’s international drug trafficking hubs” and is “one of the poorest nations on earth.”

The Main Parties

Sunday’s elections will inevitably be a race between the PAIGC (African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde) and the PRS (Party for Social Renewal).

The PAIGC is the former liberation movement that fought a guerilla war against Portuguese colonial rule for over a decade and took power on independence in 1974.

The PRS has mostly been in opposition.  Kumba Yala, the only president it has produced so far, was overthrown in a coup in 2003 and died earlier this month, just days before the elections.  The party will be hoping for a strong turnout amongst the Balanta ethnic group, which is its main support base.

The Main Presidential Candidates

Representing the PAIGC is Jose Mario Vaz, a former finance minister credited with implementing tough economic reforms.  His efforts led to the Paris Club of lenders cancelling a US $1 billion debt and France cancelling a US $8 million euro debt.

Abel Incada, who is representing the PRS, is a businessman who previously served as first deputy chairman of the Chamber of Commerce.

Another candidate is Nazare de Pina Vieira, the widow of former President Joao Bernardo Vieira, who is standing an as independent.  She has been living in Paris since her husband’s assassination in March 2009.

Who will Monitor the Elections?

Countries from the regional body, ECOWAS, agreed in February 2014 to deploy 750 troops in order to ensure security during the polls.  There will also be international observers from the United Kingdom, European Union, the African Union, ECOWAS, Nigeria and East Timor.

In February, a presidential decree indicated that more than 776,000 people had registered to vote, representing 95% of eligible voters.

What is the electoral System?

In Guinea-Bissau, the president is elected by an absolute majority, with a second round of voting occurring if it is required.  The presidential term is five years.

The 102 members of parliament are elected from 27 multi-member constituencies to serve four-year terms.