MS Risk Blog

US Team Deploys to Nigeria as Additional Girls are Kidnapped

As a team of US experts deploys to Nigeria in a bid to locate more than 200 schoolgirls abducted last month by Boko Haram militants, news has spread that an additional eleven girls have been kidnapped in the northern region of the country.  News of these latest kidnappings comes just one day after Boko Haram’s leader confirmed the militant group’s involvement and threatened to sell the girls.

On Monday, the leader of Boko Haram confirmed that the militant group was behind the abduction of over 200 girls who were kidnapped three weeks ago in northeaster Nigeria.  In the new 57-minute video released Monday, Boko Haram’s leader Abubakar Shekau added “I will sell them in the market, by Allah….Allah has instructed me to sell them.  They are his property and I will carry out his instructions.”  In the video, Shekau also notes that the girls should not have been in school in the first place, but rather should get married.

On the night of 14 April, Boko Haram militants stormed an all-girls secondary school in the village of Chibok, in Borno State.  The girls, aged 16 to 18, were forced onto trucks and taken into the remote areas along the border with Cameroon.  Although fifty-three of the girls managed to escape from the militants, according to police officials 223 are still being held.  Unconfirmed sources in Nigeria have indicated that the girls have been taken across the border and into neighbouring countries, including Chad and Cameroon, with some reports indicating that some of the girls had been forced to marry their abductors, who paid a nominal bride price of US $12 (£7).

On Tuesday, residents reported that suspected Boko Haram militants have kidnapped eleven more girls from Nigeria’s embattled north eastern region.  According to one eyewitness, the militants arrived in two trucks and “…moved door to door looking for girls,” adding that “they forcefully took away eight girls between the ages of 12 and 15.”  Another eyewitness reported that the militants also seized animals and food from the village. According to a local government official, “after leaving Warabe the gunmen stormed the Wala village which is five kilometres away and abducted three more girls.”   The latest kidnappings occurred late Sunday in the villages of Warabe and Wala, which are located in the Gwoza area of Borno State.  Due to poor communication in the area, details of the latest kidnappings did not emerge until Tuesday.  The area around the two villages is known to be a stronghold of the militant group.

While Boko Haram’s five-year insurgency in northern Nigeria has over the past year intensified, the attack and kidnapping of the girls has shocked Nigerians and has resulted in an international outcry for their safe return.  Since the launch of military operations in three northern states last May, Boko Haram, which continues to be the main security threat in the country and regionally, has grown bolder in its attacks and has extended its reach.   The April 14 kidnapping occurred on the day a bomb blast, also blamed on Boko Haram, killed seventy-five people near Abuja, the first attack to be carried out in the capital city in two years.  More than two weeks later, the militants, who say they are fighting to create an Islamic state, carried out a second bomb attack, killing 19 people and wounding 34 in the suburb of Nyanya.

The girl’s abduction has been a huge embarrassment for the government, which has failed to locate them, while Nigeria’s President Goodluck Jonathan has been under increasing pressure to act against the militant group.  The latest incidents will likely overshadow the country’s first hosting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) for Africa, which is set to take place on May 7 – 9 in Abuja.

US Deployment

In the wake of increasing frustration over the Nigerian government’s failure to locate the 223 missing schoolgirls, the United States has accepted an offer to aid in the search.

On Tuesday, US President Barack Obama confirmed the deployment of a team of US experts, stating that the group is comprised of personnel from the military, law enforcement and other agencies, adding that he hopes the kidnapping may galvanise the international community to take action against Boko Haram.  US Secretary of State John Kerry also indicated Tuesday that Washington will set up a co-ordination cell at its embassy in Abuja which will include US military personnel, law enforcement officials and experts in hostage situations.

While US officials have stated that the first group of abducted girls, who are aged between 16 and 18, may have already been smuggled over Nigeria’s porous borders into countries such as Chad and Cameroon, officials from the two neighbouring states have indicated that at this time they do not believe the girls are in their countries.

The United Kingdom has also offered to help Nigerian authorities in their search.  On Tuesday, British Foreign Secretary William Hague announced that the UK would assist the Nigerian government if they received such a request however what form the assistance would take was not specified by Hague.

Mokhtar Belmokhtar, Al Nusra Front Pledge Compliance to Ayman Al-Zawahiri

Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the leader of the Sahel-based terrorist group Khaled Abu al-Abbas Brigade (aka: Masked Brigade, aka: Signatories in Blood), has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri. Belmokhtar was believed to have been killed in fighting  in Mali in 2013. However in late April, intelligence sources revealed that he had moved from Mali to a base in southern Libya.

Belmokhtar’s statement, released on Islamist websites, said, “We declare our faith in the policies of our emir, Cheikh Ayman al-Zawahiri… because we are convinced of the fairness of his approach,” Mokhtar Belmokhtar said in a statement posted Wednesday on Islamist websites.

Belmokhtar was key member of Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) until political infighting lead to a fallout with AQIM leader Abou Zeid. Belmokhtar split from the group and formed his own organization. In 2013, Belmokhtar was known to be working with Islamist group MUJAO to drive the Taureg separatist group, out of Gao in Mali and to expand his land base and increase the numbers in his brigade.

In the statement, Belmokhtar specifically mentions al-Zawahiri’s latest comments on in-fighting between rebels in Syria that has killed hundreds since January.

In related news, Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda’s official branch in Syria, has also issued a statement saying it will comply with Ayman al Zawahiri’s orders with respect to the jihadist infighting in Syria. Al Nusrah has been in combat with Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham (ISIS, also known as ISIL), which has been disowned by al Qaeda’s general command.

In recently released audio messages, Zawahiri addressed Abu Muhammad al Julani, the emir of Al Nusrah, and demanded that Julani and Al Nusrah “immediately stop any fighting” as it is an act of aggression against “their jihadist brothers.” Zawahiri reiterated his call for the establishment of an independent sharia (Islamic law) court capable of settle the ongoing dispute. He also said the jihadists should stop criticizing each other in the media.

In reply to the message, Al Nusrah announced its “commitment” to comply with Zawahiri’s orders to stop attacking Isis, but added that they are prepared to respond defensively to any act of aggression. The group also says it is willing to submit to a sharia court, and will stop insulting its rivals on social media.

Al Nusrah blames ISIS for the death of Abu Khalid al Suri, Zawahiri’s chief representative in Syria until he was killed in February. Al Suri was a founding member and senior leader in Ahrar al Sham, which is allied with Al Nusrah and is a prominent part of the Islamic Front, a coalition of several rebel groups. Al Nusrah also blames ISIS for the death of Abu Muhammad al Fateh, a leader in the group who was killed along with other members of his family in Syria’s Idlib province.

The pledged to Zawahiri show a renewed unity among various branches of Al Qaeda, and a willingness to work more closely AQ main office. This may signal strengthening ties, and unity of messages and actions coming from AQ affiliates throughout the Middle East.

Gunmen Storm Libyan Parliament during vote for Prime Minister

30 April- Unidentified gunmen stormed the Libyan parliament on Tuesday during an evening session held to elect a new prime minister. The gunmen fired shots, and “forced MPs to abandon the session to select a new prime minister,” according to parliament spokesman Omar Humeidan.

Early reports indicated that a number of people had been injured in the attack, however those reports remain unconfirmed. The attackers are suspected to be supporters of Mohamed Boukar, one of seven candidates chosen for the prime-ministerial ballot, but who was among the losing candidates in the first round of voting on Tuesday morning.

The election is being held to find a replacement for former Prime Minister Abdallah Al-Thani, who resigned two weeks ago after less than a month in office following an attack on his family. His predecessor, Ali Zeidan received a vote of no-confidence in March.

During the first vote on Tuesday morning, businessman Ahmed Maitiq led the seven candidates, winning 67 votes. The evening vote put Maitiq against Omar Al-Hasi, the second place candidate who won 34 votes. Speaker Humeidan said that it would be “difficult for any candidate to win the support of 120 members of parliament, the quorum specified by the parliament’s internal regulations that were recently amended.” If the parliament fails to reach an agreement, the members will ask Thani to continue his role as prime minister until a new parliament is elected in four months.

Since the overthrow of Muammar Gadhafi in 2011, the Libyan government has been unable to control the heavily armed militias who were instrumental in his removal. Militias seeking their own aims in the relatively lawless nation have refused to lay down their weapons. The parliament building and members of the government have been targeted numerous times. Government officials, including foreign envoys, have been kidnapped or attacked, and the national congress building has been stormed dozens of times over the past 18 months.

The second round of voting has been postponed, and will take place on 4 May.

Second mass death-sentencing in Egypt sparks international outcry

In the latest government crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, an Egyptian court in Minya has sentenced 683 defendants to death. The new verdict, issued by the same court, surpasses last month’s sentencing of 529 defendants to death, becoming the largest mass-death sentencing in living memory. The judge will confirm the verdict on June 21.

In both cases, the defendants are accused of association with the Muslim Brotherhood and involvement in the death of two police officers on 14 August 2013. The 529 defendants tried in March were accused of lynching a policeman in the town of Matay, in Minya province. In Monday’s trial, 683 others – including Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed Badie – are said to have killed another officer in the nearby town of Adwa.

Since the overthrow of Morsi, and particularly since the clearings of pro-Morsi protest camps at Raba’a and el Nahda squares on 14 August of last year, at least 16,000 people have been arrested and more than 2,500 killed since the ousting of Morsi.

Defence lawyers boycotted the last two brief sessions of the hearing, branding it “farcical” after the mass death sentencing. As in the previous case, the trial was fraught with irregularities. The majority of the defendants were tried in absentia; only 73 are in custody, and the others have a right to a retrial if they hand themselves in. The hearing lasted only 10 minutes. Earlier this month, the judge commuted 492 of the 529 death sentences to life in prison. Many family members claimed that their relatives had been unjustly convicted or put on trial, in some cases because of personal disputes with police officers. In many cases, the defendants have evidence proving they were not involved, and in fact, not in the province at the time of the events.

The court, presided over by judge Said Youssef Sabry, has sparked international outcry with its sentencings. The defence lawyers claim that Judge Sabry could not have had time to read the thousands of pages of court documents relating to the case. Families have alleged that some defendants are not even mentioned in the documents.

The United States urged Egypt to reverse the court decision. A statement from the White House read, “Today’s verdict, like the one last month, defies even the most basic standards of international justice. This verdict cannot be reconciled with Egypt’s obligations under international human rights law.”

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon was “alarmed” by the death sentences and feared it could impact the entire region. Ban’s spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, said, “Verdicts that clearly appear not to meet basic fair trial standards, particularly those which impose the death penalty, are likely to undermine prospects for long-term stability.” The UN chief will discuss his concerns with Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy later this week.

Amnesty International also condemned the ruling, saying, “Egypt’s judiciary risks becoming just another part of the authorities’ repressive machinery, issuing sentences of death and life imprisonment on an industrial scale.”

However, the government has defended the rulings, insisting that the case was carefully studied, and the verdict was “subject to appeal. In the media, many see the sentences as a fitting penalty to the Muslim Brotherhood, who are blamed for an increase in militancy and violence in Egypt since August. A newspaper commentator said, “The outrage over the conviction of 529 terrorists is in itself an outrage.”

Under Egyptian law, death sentences are referred to the country’s Grand Mufti (top Islamic scholar) for an advisory opinion before being ratified. The court may choose to commute the sentences, which can later be challenged at an appeals court.

Meanwhile, a separate court in Cairo has banned the April 6 Movement, a youth movement that was in large part responsible for  spearheading the 2011 revolt which toppled strongman Hosni Mubarak. The group was accused of defaming Egypt and colluding with foreign parties. At the UN, Ban Ki-moon expressed concern at that decision and the jailing of three “emblematic figures” of the uprising, including two founders of the youth movement.

MERS virus Cases on the Rise in the Middle East

28 April: A  potentially fatal virus is spreading throughout the Middle East and could become a global threat. The Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has health officials on high alert. The virus causes severe respiratory difficulties in humans. Symptoms of an infection include coughing, fever, pneumonia and shortness of breath.

The virus was first reported in Saudi Arabia in 2012, and health care officials have observed a rise in cases of infection during March and April for the past three years. In the past month, over 120 cases of MERS-CoV have been reported in the country, with over 10 reported cases each day, up from two or three daily in previous years. In 2014, there have been more cases detected than in 2012 and 2013 combined. On Thursday alone, the Saudi Arabian health ministry confirmed 36 new cases and four deaths.

The epicentre of the outbreak appears to be in Jedda, where seven cases of MERS have been confirmed in April. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), most of the infections were secondary cases in which healthcare workers or other hospital patients have been infected by someone who already has the virus.

The virus appears to be spreading. Over the weekend, Egypt confirmed its first-ever case of MERS. The Egyptian patient had been working in Riyadh before returning to the country. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), seven new cases have been confirmed, including a 4-year-old boy from Abu Dhabi, believed to have been infected by his mother who recently returned from  Saudi Arabia. Cases of MERS infections have also been reported in Qatar, Jordan, Yemen, Oman, and Kuwait, the UK, Tunisia, France, Italy, Germany, Malaysia, the Philippines and Greece. In the U.S., the Center for Disease Control “has been preparing for the possibility that a MERS case could walk off an airplane onto American soil.”

The WHO has confirmed 254 cases of MERS since the virus first appeared in April 2012. Of those cases, 93 have resulted in the patient’s death (36% fatality rate).

Saudi Arabia has been accused of obscuring information about the outbreak, making it that much harder for the international health community to answer important questions. The WHO has suggested that “inadequate” infection prevention may have contributed to the outbreak, but health professionals know very little about the virus or its means of transmission. Scientists first linked MERS-CoV to bats; however recent tests have found that signs of the disease are also widespread in camels, as it often appeared in patients who worked with camels, or consumed camel meat or milk. However, it appears that the virus has evolved, making it easier to transmit the disease between humans. Currently, the virus appears to stop after the second person, yet scientists fear that the disease may evolve again, potentially cause a pandemic.

Because of the upswing in the number of cases during March and April, many scientists have considered that MERS may be a seasonal virus. However if cases continue to rise beyond April, the biggest fears may come to fruition in October, when over one million Muslims will travel to Saudi Arabia for Hajj, creating an opportunity for a spike in global infection.