MS Risk Blog

Ebola Outbreak in West Africa Passes 100 Mark

As Ebola deaths in Guinea pass the 100 mark, World Health Organization (WHO) officials have indicated that the latest outbreak of the deadly virus is the “most challenging.”

On Tuesday, the United Nations World Health Organization stated that the number of people believed to have been killed by the Ebola virus in Guinea has passed 100, adding that it was “one of the most challenging Ebola outbreaks we have ever dealt with,” and noting that it could take another four months to contain the deadly virus.

Officials at the WHO have stated that there are currently 157 cases in Guinea, where 101 people have died. Twenty cases have been reported in Guinea’s capital city, Conakry. Sixty-seven of these cases have been confirmed as Ebola. Liberia has also recorded 21 cases and 10 deaths.

While southern Guinea is the epicentre of the outbreak, with the first case reported last month, porous borders amongst many West African states coupled with people frequently travelling between countries, have led to the virus spreading to Liberia. Officials however did receive some good news earlier this week when tests showed that suspected cases in Ghana and Sierra Leone were not Ebola. Two of nine suspected cases in Mali were also cleared. However Dr Keiji Fukuda of the WHO has warned that it is still too early to say whether the rate of transmission is slowing but that the outbreak is far from over. The geographical spread of the outbreak is continuing to make it particularly challenging to contain as past outbreaks involved much smaller areas.

Meanwhile on Saturday, officials in Guinea appealed for calm in the Ebola-hit southern region of the country after a group of international aid workers battling to contain an outbreak of the deadly virus were attacked by a mob. Sources have indicated that Doctors Without Borders (MSF) was forced to suspend its operations in Macenta, in south-eastern Guinea, on Friday after crowds attacked one of its centres. Officials in Conakry later indicated that the crowd had gathered as rumours circulated in the town that the virus was “imported into Guinea or that Ebola fever does not exist in our country.”

A statement issued by Guinea’s government on Saturday vowed that lawbreakers would be brought to justice and said it was “calling for calm and serenity to enable our partners to support us to eradicate this epidemic.” The statement further noted that “the government has protests against such information and reiterates that only the recognition of the existence of the disease will help fight against it.” In regards to the MSF’s work in Guinea, the statement indicated that “the contribution of MSF and all international organisations that are supporting Guinea in the fight against the pandemic is invaluable and has helped so far to contain the disease,” adding that “without these partners, the disease would not be under control today.” MSF has 52 international experts who are working alongside Guinean staff in Conakry and the provincial towns of Gueckedou and Macenta, which are located in the southern epicentre of the outbreak. The MSF’s spokesman Sam Taylor stated Saturday “”MSF’s head of mission is in Gueckedou to meet with the regional governor, senior health officials and local community leaders. We hope to restart our work as soon as possible.” Sources have indicated that MSF is planning to restart its Macenta operation as soon as possible. Treatment is continuing in Gueckedou, another town that has been badly hit by the outbreak.

Egypt making strides against Al Qaeda-based Terrorism

On 7 April, Mohammed al-Zawahiri, brother of Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri, was referred to Egyptian criminal court on terrorism related charges. He and 67 others will be tried; only 50 of the defendants are in custody. The remaining defendants are currently on the run, and will be tried in absentia. The official court date has not yet been set.

The suspects are charged with creating an “Al-Qaeda-linked terrorist group”. They are also charged with planning assaults on government and security installations, conducting attacks on Egyptian security personnel, and targeting Egypt’s Coptic Christian minority with intentions to “spread chaos and undermine security.” The statement does not indicate specific events or attacks, but Egyptian investigations have disclosed that members of Zawahiri’s group were told to leave Egypt to fight the Assad regime in Syria. On 30 June 2013, the day Morsi was evicted from office, the group’s members were told to return to counter Egypt’s new authorities.

Zawahiri, an Egyptian national, is specifically charged with forming the AQ inspired group, arming its members, and training them in developing explosives and planting bombs. Authorities have stated they have evidence that the group was trained in hidden locations in the Sharqiya province, as well as Cairo’s districts of Matareya and 6 October.

Sharqiya has been inflicted by frequent attacks targeting security forces. On 29 December, 2013, four soldiers were injured in an explosion near Sharqiya Governorate’s Military Intelligence Headquarters in Anshas. A car packed with explosives detonated near the building, partially destroying the structure’s rear façade. Sharqiya police officers have also been killed and injured in targeted shootings since August 2013. Most recently, perpetrators on motorcycles showered police with bullets as they drove past, killing one and injuring three. In Matareya and 6 October, supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood have clashed regularly with police.

Since the 30 June ouster of Morsi, and particularly since 14 August crackdown on Morsi supporters protesting in Rabaa and al-Nahda Squares in Cairo, Egypt has suffered a string of bombings and shootings targeting security forces, killing nearly 500 people. While the bulk of the attacks have occurred in the Sinai Peninsula, attacks have steadily moved westward into Nile Valley Egypt. A majority of the attacks have been claimed by a Sinai-based, al Qaeda inspired group called Ansar Beit al Maqdis. Despite the group’s vocal claim of responsibility for several attacks, in September 2013 the Muslim Brotherhood was designated as a terrorist organisation in Egypt, accused of having financial and operational links with Al Qaeda and other militant organisations.

Also on 7 April, Egyptian authorities apprehended Thirwat Salah Shehata, an Egyptian national and one of Ayman al Zawahiri’s top deputies. Shehata, a senior al Qaeda leader, took shelter in Iran for much of the post-9/11 period.

In early 2011 during the revolution to remove President Hosni Mubarak, Shehata released a statement from Iran calling on the people to “remain steadfast” and reject any economic concessions from Mubarak. “Indeed, the Pharaoh and his rotten party must depart.” Sometime after this statement, Shehata left Iran and went to Libya. US officials believe that he met with other senior al Qaeda leaders in Libya in 2013, including Abu Anas al Libi, who was detained by US forces in Tripoli. Al Libi was wanted for his role in the 1998 US Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania and had also fled to Iran following 9/11.

Egyptian authorities believe that Shehata was in Libya to train militants in the Eastern region, which is currently a stronghold of militant groups threatening to break off from Libya and become an autonomous region.

Al Qaeda has an extensive presence in Libya. A January 2014 report from the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence indicates that subgroups from the organisation, including Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and the Muhammad Jamal Network have all “conducted training, built communication networks, and facilitated extremist travel across North Africa from their safe haven in parts of eastern Libya.” It is believed that senior AQ leaders, including Shehata have played a role in these efforts.

Shehata was initially a member of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad (EIJ), which was headed by Ayman al Zawahiri. Prior to the 9/11 attacks, the EIJ merged with Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda operations. Within the EIJ, Shehata was the head of their security committee, and “maintained information about individual members and how to reach them, documenting physical, psychological, academic and religious information about each member and determining the type of work he could do.” According to former Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet, US officials received credible information that Shehata “was willing to strike US, Israeli, and Egyptian targets sometime in the future.” Tenet writes. Shehata was also “linked to terrorist operations in North Africa, and while in Afghanistan he had trained North Africans in the use of truck bombs.

Egypt’s capture of Shehata and the trial of Zawahiri come as Egypt prepares for presidential elections on 26 and 27 May. Field Marshall Abdul Fattah al Sisi, who removed Morsi from office, has experienced widespread popularity and is expected to win the election in a landslide victory. Since August 2013, Sisi has loudly vocalised the need to rid Egypt of the terrorist element. As Commander in Chief of the army and the Minister of Defence, his harsh stance against terrorism has been met with controversy. Although he stepped down from his positions to enter the presidential race as a civilian, the timing of this trial and arrest may serve to support his campaign in the lead up to the elections.

3 Kidnapped in Northern Cameroon

Officials in Cameroon and Italy have confirmed the kidnapping of two Italian priests and a Canadian nun who were taken during the early morning hours on Saturday.

Italy’s foreign ministry on Saturday confirmed that unidentified gunmen in Cameroon had ransacked the building where the hostages were staying in the north-western region of the country.  The latest incident took place in the district of Maroua in the early hours of Saturday morning.  Sources have indicated that gunmen were reported to have arrived by car before entering the building where the priests and the nun were staying at around 02:00 local time (01:00 GMT).    The area is located close to a stronghold of militant Nigerian group Boko Haram.

On Sunday, Cameroonian security forces indicated that they were combing the area but have since stated that they fear the three hostages have been taken across the border and into neighbouring Nigeria.  So far no one has claimed responsibility for the kidnappings, however Cameroonian security sources have indicated that they believe Boko Haram orchestrated the recent kidnappings.

The Italian foreign ministry has reported that the two priests, Giampaolo Marta and Gianantonio Allegri, are from the Diocese of Vicenza in northern Italy.  One of the priests had been in Cameroon for more than six years, while the other had arrived about a  year ago.  The ministry has also reported that a crisis unit to work on the release of the hostages has been set up.  Canadian officials reported over the weekend that Gilberte Bussieres, 74, a nun from Quebec, had been kidnapped over night Friday.  She is from Asbestos, Quebec and belongs to the Montreal-based Congregation de Notre0Dame.  According to the congregation, Bussieres has worked in Africa since 1979 and ran a school in Douvangar, Cameroon.  Those close to the nun have reported that they fear she is still week after having received cancer treatment in Canada two years ago.

Kidnappings of Westerners have become common in the remote, insurgency-wracked corner of West Africa, where borders are difficult to control.  In November 2013, French Catholic Priest Georges Vandenbeusch was seized by heavily armed men who burst into his parish at night.  They later reportedly took him to neighbouring Nigeria in an attack that was claimed by the Islamist group.  Earlier in the year, a Frenchman employed by gas group Suez was kidnaped in the same area together with his wife, their children and his brother, while they were visiting a national park.  Despite Abuja sealing a portion of its border with Cameroon, in a bid to block the movement of insurgents and other criminal groups, it is clear that Boko Haram militants continue to move across the border areas fairly easily.

Deadly Ebola Virus Spreads to Liberia and Mali

The first cases of the Ebola virus have been confirmed in Liberia, after spreading from neighboring Guinea, where the deadly virus has already killed eighty-four people.  Meanwhile in Mali, officials are on high alert after three suspected cases were reported near the border area with Guinea.

Fears Virus Has Spread to Mali

Officials in Mali on Thursday indicated that they had detected three suspected victims of the Ebola virus, the deadly disease that has killed 84 people in Guinea.  Speaking to reporters in Bamako, Mali’s Health Minister Ousmane Kone stated that “three suspected cases of hemorrhagic fever have been detected in the country.  Samples have been taken and sent abroad for analysis.”  The Health Minister added that pending results from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, where the samples were sent, the patients were isolated and were receiving appropriate medication.  A statement issued by the government has indicated that the patients’ condition was currently improving and that the results of the tests will be made public as soon as they are known. 

Ebola Outbreak Confirmed in Liberia

Seven new patients has brought the total suspected Ebola cases in Liberia to fourteen.  Since reporting its first case of the hemorrhagic fever last month, six people have died, however officials in Liberia indicated Thursday that the first suspected Ebola case is now thought to be unconnected to the ongoing epidemic in neighboring Guinea, noting that the case may have originated separately within its borders.

According to Liberia’s chief medical officer Bernice Dahn, “we have a case in Tapeta where a hunter who has not had any contact with anyone coming from Guinea got sick,” adding “he was rushed to the hospital and died 30 minutes later.  He never had any interaction with someone suspected to be a carrier of the virus and he has never gone to Guinea.  This is an isolated case.”  If confirmed, the case in the eastern town of Tapeta would mark a worrying development in the fight against Ebola, as cases so far have been attributed to people returning with the infection from neighboring Guinea, where 84 people have died.  Tapeta, a small town in the eastern country of Nimba, is located 400 kilometers (250 miles) from the epicenter of the Ebola outbreak in southern Guinea.  It is also at least a five-hour drive and much further from the border than other suspected cases.

Of the six deaths, two were laboratory-confirmed Ebola cases – a woman who died in hospital in the northern county of Lofa and her sister who visited her.  The sister was allowed to return home to Monrovia before being hospitalized in the nearby Firestone Hospital.  Local authorities had isolated her and were monitoring her, her family and others with whom she may have had contact however Mr Dahn has since indicated that “…after being confirmed Ebola virus positive, the lady died this morning.”  He added that “we are now keeping surveillance on 44 people who have been in contact with the cases reported.”  The fruit bat, which is thought to be the host of the highly contagious Ebola virus, is a delicacy in the region that straddles Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with experts suspecting huntsmen to be the source of the outbreak.

Guinea Outbreak

The outbreak in Guinea had initially centered in the country’s remote south-eastern Forest Region of Nzerekore, where it took officials six weeks to identify the disease, effectively allowing it to spread over the borders and into the more populous regions of the country.  The first symptoms experienced were of a feverish sickness and they were observed on February 9.  The mysterious disease claimed at least 23 lives, out of a total of 36, before officials were able to identify it.  Since then, the outbreak has continued to spread, with officials confirming last week that it had spread to the capital, Conakry, which is a sprawling city of two million.

On Sunday, Guinea’s Health Ministry indicated that the country was now dealing with 122 “suspicious cases” of viral hemorrhagic fever, including at least 80 deaths.  However not all of the cases have been confirmed as the Ebola virus.  Medical Charity Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) has since stated that the Ebola outbreak in Guinea is “unprecedented,” adding that the spread of the disease across the country made it very difficult to control.  Guinea is now facing a battle to contain the outbreak after cases were reported in areas that are hundreds of kilometers apart.

Regional Concern

Over the past weekend, there has been a growing concern that the outbreak of the deadly virus may spread throughout West Africa.  According to Tarik Jasarevic, spokesman for the WHO, up to 400 people are identified as potential Ebola contacts in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia.

Fears of the virus spreading further into West Africa prompted officials in Senegal to close the country’s normally busy border with Guinea.  Senegal’s Health Minister Awa Maria Coll-Seck confirmed Monday that the government had decided to close its border with Guinea after receiving confirmation that the virus had reached the country’s capital city Conakry.  According to Ms Coll-Seck, Senegal has also “…closed all weekly markets, known as luma, in the south.  And we’re having some discussions with religious leaders regarding big religious events.”

Officials in Sierra Leone also reported last week some suspected cases of the Ebola virus however these have not yet been confirmed.

The Ebola virus, which is one of the world’s most virulent diseases, was first discovered in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 1976.  The DRC has since had eight outbreaks of the disease, with the most recent epidemic, which occurred in the DRC between May and November 2012, infecting 62 people and leaving 34 dead.  Although there have been previous outbreaks amongst humans in Uganda, the Republic of Congo and Gabon, the disease had never before been detected in people in West Africa.  There have also been fears that the disease could one day be used in a biological weapons attack as, according to researches, the virus multiplies quickly, overwhelming the immune system’s ability to fight the infection.

If all cases in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Mali and Liberia are confirmed to be Ebola, this outbreak would be the most deadly epidemic since 187 people died in Luebo, in the Congo’s Kasai Orientale province in 2007.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), to date, no treatment or vaccine is available for Ebola, which kills between 25 and 90 percent of those who fall sick, depending on the strain of the virus.  The Zaire strain of Ebola, which has a 90 percent death rate, is the one that has been detected in Guinea.

Libyan Government, Former Prime Minister, Call for International Assistance in War on Terror

Speaking at a meeting in London, Libya’s former Prime Minister Ali Zeidan issued an alarming message that Libya could become “the next crucible of global terrorism.” He strongly urged Libya’s allies to assist the country from falling into collapse. Zeidan stated, “Libya could be a base for al-Qaeda for any operation to Italy, to Britain, to France, to Spain, to Morocco, to everywhere. Weapons are everywhere, ammunition is everywhere.” Zeidan urged Britain to increase its support to help to train Libyan security forces and to assist with economic and political reforms.

Libya’s engagement in the Arab Spring of 2011 took the form of a civil war which ultimately saw the death of Dictator Muammar Gadhafi and the end of his regime. However, despite the end of autocratic rule, the nation has remained in turmoil. Weaponry looted from the regime, valued in the millions of dollars, remains prolific on the black market and in the hands of tribal militias and Islamic extremist groups. Factions have seized Libya’s oil assets and land in the eastern part of the nation, threatening to form an autonomous nation. The Libyan government had been reluctant to launch offensives against the militias and extremist groups for fear that those same groups would exploit the added chaos.

Zeidan’s warning is dire: Libya has become ungovernable, and requires a UN peacekeeping force to prevent al-Qaeda or inspired derivatives from gaining a stronghold in the region. The northern part of the nation extends into the Mediterranean Sea, making it a gateway for illegal immigrants or dangerous individuals to access Europe.

The former prime minister added that Libya’s General National Congress is no longer legitimate, and feels that and new elections should be held to bring in a new interim authority. However, he remains sympathetic to the role he left: “Do you think it is a privilege to be prime minister of Libya at this time? It is some kind of suffering. What it has cost me in terms of my nerves and my health over these 15 months, it was unbelievable.

Zeidan served as prime minister for 15 months, during which he was kidnapped and held by a rebel faction. In March, he was ousted from Libya’s parliament in a vote of no confidence following escalating chaos culminating the government’s inability to prevent rebels in the east from attempting to illegally export Libyan oil. Libya has the largest known oil reserves in Africa, approximately 47 billion barrels. Currently, several ports in the east are in the hands of rebel factions.

Zeidan has since fled to Germany, where he had lived previously while in opposition against Gadhafi. However he is preparing to return to Libya in the near future, with intentions to restore stability to his nation.

Simultaneously, the Libyan government has also called for help and declared a “War on Terror”. A statement released on 25 March by the Council of Ministers states, “Libya’s interim government asks the international community and especially the United Nations to provide assistance to uproot terrorism […] the government confirms that it wants this war on terror to start as soon as possible.”

The statement continues, “The nation is now confronting terrorist groups which requires making security and military resources available to fight such epidemic and bring peace and security to our cities […] the interim government asks the world community, especially the United Nations to provide the needed support in order to eradicate terrorism from Libyan cities.

The statement marks the first time in Libyan history that the government has called for outside help to fight terrorists on Libyan soil. The call for help comes after a wave of bombings and assassinations in Benghazi, Derna and Sirte. In Benghazi, killings or injuries through shooting or car bombs, have occurred on a near daily basis. Opposition to the declaration of war on terrorism has already emerged, particularly amongst Islamist supporters in the nation, who feel they will be targeted for their political leanings.

On 28 March, Tarek Mitri, Chief of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) visited Tunisia’s capital, Tunis, to officially request help. Mitri spoke with Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki and Ennahda Party head Rachid Ghannouchi. Reportedly, Mitri asked the Tunisian government, which is on the road to recovery following their 2010 uprising, to share experiences regarding democratic transition and national dialogue.

Echoing the distress, a video has been released of Saddi Gadhafi, son of the former dictator. Saadi, who fled to Niger during the revolution, was extradited to Libya earlier this year. He is accused of trying to suppress the uprising against his father’s rule.

In the video, he says, “I apologise to the Libyan people, and I apologise to the dear brothers in the Libyan government for all the harm I’ve caused and for disturbing the security and stability of Libya. I admit that these things were wrong, and we should not have perpetrated these acts.” He also called on “those who carry weapons to hand over their weapons”. Saadi’s brother, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, remains in the hands of rebels in Zintan, where he was captured in November 2011.

There is no official word yet from the UK or the UN regarding support for action in Libya.