MS Risk Blog

Gunmen Storm Libyan Parliament during vote for Prime Minister

30 April- Unidentified gunmen stormed the Libyan parliament on Tuesday during an evening session held to elect a new prime minister. The gunmen fired shots, and “forced MPs to abandon the session to select a new prime minister,” according to parliament spokesman Omar Humeidan.

Early reports indicated that a number of people had been injured in the attack, however those reports remain unconfirmed. The attackers are suspected to be supporters of Mohamed Boukar, one of seven candidates chosen for the prime-ministerial ballot, but who was among the losing candidates in the first round of voting on Tuesday morning.

The election is being held to find a replacement for former Prime Minister Abdallah Al-Thani, who resigned two weeks ago after less than a month in office following an attack on his family. His predecessor, Ali Zeidan received a vote of no-confidence in March.

During the first vote on Tuesday morning, businessman Ahmed Maitiq led the seven candidates, winning 67 votes. The evening vote put Maitiq against Omar Al-Hasi, the second place candidate who won 34 votes. Speaker Humeidan said that it would be “difficult for any candidate to win the support of 120 members of parliament, the quorum specified by the parliament’s internal regulations that were recently amended.” If the parliament fails to reach an agreement, the members will ask Thani to continue his role as prime minister until a new parliament is elected in four months.

Since the overthrow of Muammar Gadhafi in 2011, the Libyan government has been unable to control the heavily armed militias who were instrumental in his removal. Militias seeking their own aims in the relatively lawless nation have refused to lay down their weapons. The parliament building and members of the government have been targeted numerous times. Government officials, including foreign envoys, have been kidnapped or attacked, and the national congress building has been stormed dozens of times over the past 18 months.

The second round of voting has been postponed, and will take place on 4 May.

Second mass death-sentencing in Egypt sparks international outcry

In the latest government crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, an Egyptian court in Minya has sentenced 683 defendants to death. The new verdict, issued by the same court, surpasses last month’s sentencing of 529 defendants to death, becoming the largest mass-death sentencing in living memory. The judge will confirm the verdict on June 21.

In both cases, the defendants are accused of association with the Muslim Brotherhood and involvement in the death of two police officers on 14 August 2013. The 529 defendants tried in March were accused of lynching a policeman in the town of Matay, in Minya province. In Monday’s trial, 683 others – including Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed Badie – are said to have killed another officer in the nearby town of Adwa.

Since the overthrow of Morsi, and particularly since the clearings of pro-Morsi protest camps at Raba’a and el Nahda squares on 14 August of last year, at least 16,000 people have been arrested and more than 2,500 killed since the ousting of Morsi.

Defence lawyers boycotted the last two brief sessions of the hearing, branding it “farcical” after the mass death sentencing. As in the previous case, the trial was fraught with irregularities. The majority of the defendants were tried in absentia; only 73 are in custody, and the others have a right to a retrial if they hand themselves in. The hearing lasted only 10 minutes. Earlier this month, the judge commuted 492 of the 529 death sentences to life in prison. Many family members claimed that their relatives had been unjustly convicted or put on trial, in some cases because of personal disputes with police officers. In many cases, the defendants have evidence proving they were not involved, and in fact, not in the province at the time of the events.

The court, presided over by judge Said Youssef Sabry, has sparked international outcry with its sentencings. The defence lawyers claim that Judge Sabry could not have had time to read the thousands of pages of court documents relating to the case. Families have alleged that some defendants are not even mentioned in the documents.

The United States urged Egypt to reverse the court decision. A statement from the White House read, “Today’s verdict, like the one last month, defies even the most basic standards of international justice. This verdict cannot be reconciled with Egypt’s obligations under international human rights law.”

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon was “alarmed” by the death sentences and feared it could impact the entire region. Ban’s spokesman, Stephane Dujarric, said, “Verdicts that clearly appear not to meet basic fair trial standards, particularly those which impose the death penalty, are likely to undermine prospects for long-term stability.” The UN chief will discuss his concerns with Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy later this week.

Amnesty International also condemned the ruling, saying, “Egypt’s judiciary risks becoming just another part of the authorities’ repressive machinery, issuing sentences of death and life imprisonment on an industrial scale.”

However, the government has defended the rulings, insisting that the case was carefully studied, and the verdict was “subject to appeal. In the media, many see the sentences as a fitting penalty to the Muslim Brotherhood, who are blamed for an increase in militancy and violence in Egypt since August. A newspaper commentator said, “The outrage over the conviction of 529 terrorists is in itself an outrage.”

Under Egyptian law, death sentences are referred to the country’s Grand Mufti (top Islamic scholar) for an advisory opinion before being ratified. The court may choose to commute the sentences, which can later be challenged at an appeals court.

Meanwhile, a separate court in Cairo has banned the April 6 Movement, a youth movement that was in large part responsible for  spearheading the 2011 revolt which toppled strongman Hosni Mubarak. The group was accused of defaming Egypt and colluding with foreign parties. At the UN, Ban Ki-moon expressed concern at that decision and the jailing of three “emblematic figures” of the uprising, including two founders of the youth movement.

MERS virus Cases on the Rise in the Middle East

28 April: A  potentially fatal virus is spreading throughout the Middle East and could become a global threat. The Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) has health officials on high alert. The virus causes severe respiratory difficulties in humans. Symptoms of an infection include coughing, fever, pneumonia and shortness of breath.

The virus was first reported in Saudi Arabia in 2012, and health care officials have observed a rise in cases of infection during March and April for the past three years. In the past month, over 120 cases of MERS-CoV have been reported in the country, with over 10 reported cases each day, up from two or three daily in previous years. In 2014, there have been more cases detected than in 2012 and 2013 combined. On Thursday alone, the Saudi Arabian health ministry confirmed 36 new cases and four deaths.

The epicentre of the outbreak appears to be in Jedda, where seven cases of MERS have been confirmed in April. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), most of the infections were secondary cases in which healthcare workers or other hospital patients have been infected by someone who already has the virus.

The virus appears to be spreading. Over the weekend, Egypt confirmed its first-ever case of MERS. The Egyptian patient had been working in Riyadh before returning to the country. In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), seven new cases have been confirmed, including a 4-year-old boy from Abu Dhabi, believed to have been infected by his mother who recently returned from  Saudi Arabia. Cases of MERS infections have also been reported in Qatar, Jordan, Yemen, Oman, and Kuwait, the UK, Tunisia, France, Italy, Germany, Malaysia, the Philippines and Greece. In the U.S., the Center for Disease Control “has been preparing for the possibility that a MERS case could walk off an airplane onto American soil.”

The WHO has confirmed 254 cases of MERS since the virus first appeared in April 2012. Of those cases, 93 have resulted in the patient’s death (36% fatality rate).

Saudi Arabia has been accused of obscuring information about the outbreak, making it that much harder for the international health community to answer important questions. The WHO has suggested that “inadequate” infection prevention may have contributed to the outbreak, but health professionals know very little about the virus or its means of transmission. Scientists first linked MERS-CoV to bats; however recent tests have found that signs of the disease are also widespread in camels, as it often appeared in patients who worked with camels, or consumed camel meat or milk. However, it appears that the virus has evolved, making it easier to transmit the disease between humans. Currently, the virus appears to stop after the second person, yet scientists fear that the disease may evolve again, potentially cause a pandemic.

Because of the upswing in the number of cases during March and April, many scientists have considered that MERS may be a seasonal virus. However if cases continue to rise beyond April, the biggest fears may come to fruition in October, when over one million Muslims will travel to Saudi Arabia for Hajj, creating an opportunity for a spike in global infection.

Egypt’s Presidential Election Commission Announces Candidates, Voting Process

27 April – In a press conference on Sunday, Egypt’s Presidential Election Commission (PEC) has announced that the final contenders for Egypt’s presidential election are Hamdeen Sabahi and Abdel-Fattah El Sisi. The documents of both candidates meet the eligibility requirements set by the commission.

The PEC also revealed details of the presidential election process, and has announced approvals for six international election monitoring organisations, as well as 79 domestic ones. A total of 116 Egyptian-based organisations applied to monitor the process. The PEC may allow the eliminated domestic organisations to participate by granting them “guest status”, the same status granted to the National Council for Human Rights (NCHR) and the National Council for Women.

Forty four international media institutions applied to cover the elections. Thirty six were granted approval, along with 13 out of 18 satellite channels.

The two candidates have until 4 May to select their voting symbols; however both have already selected and are pending approval from the PEC. Election symbols are placed on ballots so that those in the population who are illiterate can associate the symbol with the candidate. El-Sisi, who was given priority in choosing his symbol because he submitted his papers first, plans to use a star. The star, long used by Arabs as a guide, is intended to suggest that Sisi will “lead the country to the right path.” Sabahi has requested the eagle, the symbol of Egypt’s national flag, and the symbol he was granted during his 2012 candidacy.

Election campaigning will run from 3 May until midnight on 23 May. A committee of representatives from the ministries of endowment, media, education, the police’s general investigation department, and the Egyptian Anti-Corruption Agency will monitor for violations of the no-campaigning policy after 23 May.

For Egyptian expats, voting will occur from 15 to 18 May. The PEC has announced that pre-registration is cancelled; any Egyptian who is outside of Egypt on the days of the election can vote at Egyptian embassies. There are 144 embassies and consulates in 124 countries that will serve as polling stations; however these do not include Libya, Syria, or Somalia, due to security concerns. Expatriates in those regions are encouraged to travel to nearby countries where polling stations are located.

Domestically, elections will begin on 26 May at 9 am, and end at 9 pm on the first day. On 27 May, polling stations will open at 9am and will not close until the last person standing casts his/her ballot.

The presidential elections are part of a three-step transitional roadmap adopted by the army upon Morsi’s ouster in July of 2013.

Shortly after the PECs announcement, the National Alliance to Support Legitimacy, a group led by the Muslim Brotherhood movement, announced that they will boycott the election, calling it “a comic play”. In the statement made on their website and their Facebook page, they described the vote as “a farce” meant to appoint “the coup orchestrator” president, and that they would not recognise election monitoring conducted by “Western supporters of the coup.”

The group, which boycotted the referendum for the Egyptian constitution in January, believe that the existing government body have “committed crimes that exceed those committed by the Zionist Gang in Palestine.” On Saturday, supporters of the group held protests against El-Sisi, who authorised the removal of Morsi last year and has risen to popularity, expected to be the winner of the elections. Sisi has urged all Egyptians to vote in unprecedented numbers.

Syrian Elections set for 3 June

The Syrian government has called for presidential elections to be held on 3 June, with voting for Syrians outside the country to occur at Syrian embassies on 28 May. Although Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has not officially declared his intention to run for re-election, he has suggested that he will seek another seven-year term, and has begun campaigning — visiting areas recently retaken by his forces. Allies in Russia and in Lebanon’s Hezbollah Shia movement have predicted he will win.

On state television, Syrian parliamentary speaker Mohamed Jihad al-Laham announced that requests for nomination would be accepted until 1 May. Under the 2012 constitution, multiple candidates will be allowed to run for office; however they must meet highly restrictive guidelines. Candidates must be: at least 40 years old; Syrian citizens with two Syrian parents; free of criminal convictions; and must have resided in Syria for the past 10 years, which rules out many opposition figures in exile. The new election laws state that balloting must be contested by more than one candidate. Analysts expect at least one candidate will run against Assad in order for the vote to appear legitimate.

A Syrian lawmaker, Maher Abdul-Hafiz Hajjar, has already registered as a candidate, becoming the first official contender. Hajjar is a 43-year-old man from Aleppo. Syrian state media described Hajjar as a long-time communist who later formed the Popular Will Party in Aleppo. By law, he still needs to collect the signatures of 35 lawmakers for his candidacy to become valid.

Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believes there will be some opposing candidates, but they will all be from what Assad’s calls the “tolerated opposition,” a group with no connection to the rebels calling for Assad’s resignation.  However, Tabler adds, if the election does take place, there may be negative consequences because Assad could use it as an argument to oppose the United Nations-led peace talks.

The announcement of elections has been met with negative reaction. Monzer Akbik, chief of staff of the president’s office of the main western-backed National Coalition opposition group, said, “This is a state of separation from reality, a state of denial. He didn’t have any legitimacy before this theatrical election and he will not after. We do not know what actor he is putting up as an opponent but we are not taking this seriously.”

The Friends of Syria coalition — a group of 11 countries advocating for regime change in Syria that includes the United States, the UK, Germany and France — said that elections in Syria would be “a parody of democracy,” and an electoral process led by Assad “mocks the innocent lives lost in the conflict […] Bashar al-Assad intends these elections to sustain his dictatorship,” the group said in a joint statement.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged Syria against holding the elections, saying, that elections in the middle of the Syrian crisis could “damage the political process and hamper the prospects for political solution,” according to Ban’s spokesman, Stephane Dujarric. UN-backed talks between the Assad regime and opposition leaders had stalled in February, with no date set for their resumption. Dujarric added that these elections are also incompatible with the Geneva Communique — the international plan adopted two years ago that calls for a transitional government to lead to free and fair elections.

The Assad family has held power in Syria for 43 years; Bashar Al-Assad succeeded his father in 2000 and won a second term in 2007, unopposed. The Assad regime has been accused of giving priority treatment to the nation’s minority Alawite sect, from with Assad hails, and marginalising the majority of the Sunni Muslim population. Since the civil war began in 2011, over 150,000 people have been killed and millions forced to flee their homes as anti-Assad opposition vehemently fights government troops. The government maintains it is fighting armed terrorist groups bent on destabilizing the country. They have used unconventional means of warfare, including chemical weapons.

The US government and allied nations suspect that the Syrian government may have used chlorine gas in a deadly attack this month on its own people, killing at least two and affecting dozens of others in the rebel-held village of Kafr Zeita. There is no evidence that the attack was conducted by the Assad government, however, the regime has such chemicals and the means to deliver them. “Our assessment is it is, at a minimum, concentrated chlorine dropped from helicopters,” a U.S. official said. “That could only be the regime.” The Assad regime has argued that opposition forces have similar access to helicopters and chemical weapons.

Last year, Russia brokered a deal that requires Syria to surrender its chemical weapons to the international community. The agreement halted threats of U.S. military action after allegations Syria launched a chemical attack last August that killed over 1,400 people. Al-Assad and other officials have vehemently denied responsibility.