MS Risk Blog

Syrian Elections set for 3 June

The Syrian government has called for presidential elections to be held on 3 June, with voting for Syrians outside the country to occur at Syrian embassies on 28 May. Although Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has not officially declared his intention to run for re-election, he has suggested that he will seek another seven-year term, and has begun campaigning — visiting areas recently retaken by his forces. Allies in Russia and in Lebanon’s Hezbollah Shia movement have predicted he will win.

On state television, Syrian parliamentary speaker Mohamed Jihad al-Laham announced that requests for nomination would be accepted until 1 May. Under the 2012 constitution, multiple candidates will be allowed to run for office; however they must meet highly restrictive guidelines. Candidates must be: at least 40 years old; Syrian citizens with two Syrian parents; free of criminal convictions; and must have resided in Syria for the past 10 years, which rules out many opposition figures in exile. The new election laws state that balloting must be contested by more than one candidate. Analysts expect at least one candidate will run against Assad in order for the vote to appear legitimate.

A Syrian lawmaker, Maher Abdul-Hafiz Hajjar, has already registered as a candidate, becoming the first official contender. Hajjar is a 43-year-old man from Aleppo. Syrian state media described Hajjar as a long-time communist who later formed the Popular Will Party in Aleppo. By law, he still needs to collect the signatures of 35 lawmakers for his candidacy to become valid.

Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, believes there will be some opposing candidates, but they will all be from what Assad’s calls the “tolerated opposition,” a group with no connection to the rebels calling for Assad’s resignation.  However, Tabler adds, if the election does take place, there may be negative consequences because Assad could use it as an argument to oppose the United Nations-led peace talks.

The announcement of elections has been met with negative reaction. Monzer Akbik, chief of staff of the president’s office of the main western-backed National Coalition opposition group, said, “This is a state of separation from reality, a state of denial. He didn’t have any legitimacy before this theatrical election and he will not after. We do not know what actor he is putting up as an opponent but we are not taking this seriously.”

The Friends of Syria coalition — a group of 11 countries advocating for regime change in Syria that includes the United States, the UK, Germany and France — said that elections in Syria would be “a parody of democracy,” and an electoral process led by Assad “mocks the innocent lives lost in the conflict […] Bashar al-Assad intends these elections to sustain his dictatorship,” the group said in a joint statement.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon urged Syria against holding the elections, saying, that elections in the middle of the Syrian crisis could “damage the political process and hamper the prospects for political solution,” according to Ban’s spokesman, Stephane Dujarric. UN-backed talks between the Assad regime and opposition leaders had stalled in February, with no date set for their resumption. Dujarric added that these elections are also incompatible with the Geneva Communique — the international plan adopted two years ago that calls for a transitional government to lead to free and fair elections.

The Assad family has held power in Syria for 43 years; Bashar Al-Assad succeeded his father in 2000 and won a second term in 2007, unopposed. The Assad regime has been accused of giving priority treatment to the nation’s minority Alawite sect, from with Assad hails, and marginalising the majority of the Sunni Muslim population. Since the civil war began in 2011, over 150,000 people have been killed and millions forced to flee their homes as anti-Assad opposition vehemently fights government troops. The government maintains it is fighting armed terrorist groups bent on destabilizing the country. They have used unconventional means of warfare, including chemical weapons.

The US government and allied nations suspect that the Syrian government may have used chlorine gas in a deadly attack this month on its own people, killing at least two and affecting dozens of others in the rebel-held village of Kafr Zeita. There is no evidence that the attack was conducted by the Assad government, however, the regime has such chemicals and the means to deliver them. “Our assessment is it is, at a minimum, concentrated chlorine dropped from helicopters,” a U.S. official said. “That could only be the regime.” The Assad regime has argued that opposition forces have similar access to helicopters and chemical weapons.

Last year, Russia brokered a deal that requires Syria to surrender its chemical weapons to the international community. The agreement halted threats of U.S. military action after allegations Syria launched a chemical attack last August that killed over 1,400 people. Al-Assad and other officials have vehemently denied responsibility.

Pirates Hijack Oil Tanker in Malacca Strait

23 April- Armed pirates have raided an oil tanker in the Malacca Strait off the coast of Malaysia and took three crew members with them. Eight Indonesian pirates in a fishing vessel boarded the Naniwa Maru No 1 at 0100 local time on Tuesday off the coast of west Malaysia. The pirates pumped out nearly 3 million litres of diesel carried by the tanker into two waiting vessels and made off with three Indonesian crew members, including the captain, his first officer, and the chief engineer.

The Naniwa Maru No 1 was hijacked in position 02° 59’N, 100° 54’E, about 16nm off western Malaysia near the town of Port Klang. The ship was en route to Myanmar. The boarding party grouped the 18 crew members in a room and robbed them of mobile phones and cash, while two other ships pulled alongside and drained the tanker for about eight hours.

The Malacca Strait is a route for nearly one fourth of the world’s maritime oil trade. The incident has fuelled fears that piracy could be on the rise in the area, and cause an increase in ship insurance premiums.

Noel Choong, head of the International Maritime Bureau’s Malaysia-based Piracy Reporting Centre, said, “It’s the first time this has happened so far north in the Malacca Strait, and the first time they have kidnapped the crew. It’s not an area where we have seen the modus operandi of ships hijacked for their cargo.”

Malaysian authorities have announced they are now investigating whether the missing captain and two senior crew members were involved in the piracy plot. The  captain, the chief engineer and first officer, identified as Indonesian nationals, left the ship with their personal belongings and the ship’s manifest. No ransom demand has been made.

Abdul Rahim Abdullah, deputy commander of Malaysia’s marine police said the incident was more sophisticated than a typical pirate attack. “I have discounted kidnapping. Our focus now will be on the involvement of the three crew who were taken away by the perpetrators.”

Abdul-Rahim added that detailed technical knowledge of the ship and its operations would be required to conduct this operation. The tanker and the ships to which it was off-loading had to be kept at a constant speed and on the same course while the diesel was being pumped out.

The Naniwa Maru No 1 is owned by Altra Propserous Ltd. of Saint Kitts and Nevis and is under the management of Canter Singapore Ltd., a Singapore-based company. It is docked in Malaysian waters pending further investigation.

The Strait of Malacca between Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia is one of the world’s busiest waterways and has historically been plagued by piracy, but attacks and armed robbery have declined in recent years. However, a risk of armed robbery remains present in ports and anchorages regionally. Vessels are urged to review their anti-piracy plans to mitigate the risk of attacks in the eastern extent of the Malacca straits. Risk of violence directed at crew members can be high.

MUJAO Kidnap Victim Believed Dead in Mali

23 April, 2014: The Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) has announced that a French hostage, Gilberto Leal Rodrigues, has died. In November 2012, Leal Rodrigues was kidnapped by armed men near the western town of Kayes in Mali, as he was driving a camper van from Mauritania.

In a brief telephone interview, a spokesman for MUJAO, Yoro Abdoul Salam, gave no details surrounding the date or circumstances of Gilberto Leal Rodrigues’ death, only saying, he “is dead because France is our enemy”. Sources say that when Salam was pressed for evidence, such as pictures or video footage of the body, he said, “in the name of Allah, he is dead”, before hanging up.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius had vocalised concern for the 62-year old victim only days earlier. “We haven’t had any news for a long time. We are in contact with the family but we are extremely worried,” he said.

MUJAO, a Mali-based offshoot of al Qaeda, is one of several hard-line Islamist groups that occupied the vast desert north of Mali along with Taureg separatist rebels in 2012, following a military coup. The Islamists then overtook the Taureg fight and began to advance toward Bamako, instigating a French-led intervention which pushed the militants out of the region. France and other nations have continued anti-insurgency operations. Last week, French forces successfully freed five Malian aid workers who were taken hostage in a February kidnapping claimed by MUJAO, and in the past month French soldiers have killed about 40 Islamist fighters, including some senior commanders in Mali.

France is beginning to wind down the presence of soldiers to approximately 1000 troops; however sources suspect that MUJAO and other militias are regrouping. President François Hollande has that Rodrigues Leal’s death will “not go unpunished”. In a statement, Hollande said, “France will do everything to know the truth about what happened to Gilberto Leal Rodrigues and she will not let it pass unpunished […] There is every reason to believe that our fellow died several weeks [ago] because of the conditions of his detention.”

Spokesman of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Romain Nadal said in a statement, “We condemn in the strongest possible action of this terrorist group way.”

Mokhtar Belmokhtar Alive in Libya

New information has revealed that Mokhtar Belmokhtar, the militant leader responsible for the bloody siege on Algeria’s In Amenas gas plant in January 2013, is alive and plotting new attacks from Libya. The report contradicts earlier intelligence suggesting Belmokhtar had been killed in fighting in Mali.

Belmokhtar, a native Algerian, was a key member of Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) until political infighting lead to a fallout with Abou Zeid. Belmokhtar split from the group and formed Khaled Abu al-Abbas Brigade (aka: Masked Brigade, aka: Signatories in Blood). Over the past year Belmokhtar was known to be working with Islamist group MUJAO to drive the Taureg separatist group, MNLA, out of Gao in Mali. His aim was to expand his land base and increase the numbers in his brigade. However a French-led intervention in Mali successfully put down the rebellion, and Chadian troops claimed to have killed both Belmokhtar and Abou Zeid in March of last year. The US however, still offered a five million dollar reward for information leading to his detention.

A security source in Niger and another close to the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA) have confirmed that Belmokhtar has left Mali and taken refuge among armed militias in Libya. Belmokhtar is has evaded detection in Mali where French troops and US drones were searching for him. One source has stated, “From the Libyan territory, he intends to control the entire Sahel,” and many sources beleive that Belmokhtar is planning attacks on Westerners and their interests. Malian President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita believes that if Belmokhtar is in Libya, he posts an “obvious threat” to the entire region.

Malian Analyst El Hadj Konate warns, “Even if he has retreated to Libya, he is still masterminding deadly operations in northern Mali […] he has all the time he needs to regroup his forces because [Libya] is a lawless area.”
Officials in Niger are particularly concerned. On 23 May, 2013, a double attack was carried out on a military base and a French-operated uranium mine in northern Niger, killing several dozen people. Niger shares a long border with the relatively lawless Libya. Southern Libya, according to Niger’s interior minister, “has become an incubator for terrorist groups.”

The Nigerian government is increasing security and development in the north of the country, and focusing on issues including the addressing marginalisation of Tauregs in the area. However, officials fear that the youth of the nation could be influenced by terrorist recruiters.

Niger’s interior minister recently called on France and the United States to help “eradicate the terrorist threat” in Libya. However, the Chief of Staff for the French military has suggested that an international operation in the region could avert the creation “of a new centre of gravity of terrorism”.

Al Qaeda, AQAP, al-Shabaab, and Anjad Misr release videos

Four videos and one audio link related to al Qaeda have emerged. An audio release was published on 18 April on the radical Islamist site, Hanein, containing an hour-long question and answer interview AQ’s media group, al-Sahab, and reportedly including al Qaeda’s global leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri. In the discussion, Zawahiri states that al Qaeda is “holding strong” despite the ongoing war on terror that began nearly 13 years ago, even adding that US President Obama is aware that AQ is growing. Al Zawahiri states, “The upper hand is for the one who does not withdraw from his land. Who has withdrawn from Iraq, and who has not? Who has withdrawn from Afghanistan and who has not?”

In Egypt, a the militant group Anjad Misr (Soldiers of Egypt) claimed responsibility for attacks in Cairo on April 10, 15, and 18 on their Facebook and Twitter pages. The group also released video of eight previous attacks. Their stated goal is to target members of the current regime, which they consider “criminal” since the overthrow of Muslim Brotherhood-backed president Mohamed Morsi. The group’s statement asserts that Anjad Misr does not intend to harm civilians, and has aborted or altered some operations out of concern for civilians in the area. However, the statement said that the group is prepared to receive “information about the movements of the officers and personnel of the criminal services, and their addresses.”

This statement coincides with al Zawahiri’s audio message: he calls the Egyptian army “Americanized” and said they should be fought: “We bless every jihadi operation against the Zionists and the Americanized army that protects their borders and the criminal of the Interior, and fights the American interests that assault the Muslims.”

In Somalia, a video from al-Shabaab, the Somali-based al Qaeda affiliate, has also emerged. In the video, members of the militant group reflect on the siege of Westgate Mall in Nairobi, Kenya. The attack resulted in 67 deaths and is one of the bloodiest events associated with the group. However, in the video, the group states that more is likely to come: “It’s not that Westgate was enough. There are still hundreds of men who are wishing for such an operation.”

A final video shows what may be the largest al Qaeda gathering in years. Nasir al-Wuhayshi, the head of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Number Two for global al Qaeda operations, appears in Yemen, greeting his followers. The video shows al-Wuhayshi delivering a speech containing specific threats to the United States: “We must eliminate the cross. … The bearer of the cross is America!”

Analysts believe the video is authentic, and because some faces were blurred out, it may suggest that those individuals may be involved in upcoming plots.