MS Risk Blog

Week of Attacks in Nigeria Demonstrate Boko Haram’s Increasing Capabilities

Over the past week, Nigeria has seen nearly daily attacks throughout the entire country, including the third attack in Abuja in ten weeks. With Boko Haram militants suspected to be behind the latest deadly violence, many are warning that these latest attacks now demonstrate that the militant group is capable of carrying out attacks across the country at any time.

Third Attack in Abuja

On Wednesday 25 June, Nigeria’s national rescue agency reported that a loud explosion hit a crowded shopping center in the Wuse district of Nigeria’s capital Abuja, killing twenty-four people and wounding at least seventeen. A statement released by Manzo Ezekie, spokesman for the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) indicated “we received the information at about 4:00 PM (1500 GMT) about a blast” at the Emab Plaza, which is located not far from the seat of government. The statement further indicated that a “rescue operation has already commenced.” Nigerian authorities have arrested one suspect and that a second suspect was shot dead by troops as he attempted to escape on a motorbike. Although Boko Haram has not made any official confirmations pertaining to this attack, the militant group is suspected of carrying it out.

Although Boko Haram’s attacks have mostly targeted the northeastern regions of the country, over the past ten weeks, the militant group has attacked the capital twice. On 14 April more than seventy people were killed in a bomb blast at a bus stop on the outskirts of the capital city while the following month, a car bomb near a bus station in the suburbs killed at least nineteen people and injured sixty others.

Days after the bomb attack, Nigeria’s intelligence agency reported that over the past two weeks, it had been warning shopping complexes in Abuja that Islamic extremists may target them.

According to Marily Ogar, spokeswoman for the Department of State Security, Nigerian intelligence officials had received information that Boko Haram extremists were planning such an attack, adding “about two weeks ago we heard information that they were planning an attack at a busy shopping mall or market…and so we had to go from one shopping complex to another trying to tell people to be more aware.” Although the state department did not publish the intelligence reports on the threat to shopping malls, in an apparent attempt to avoid wide panic, last week the government warned that it had received information that Boko Haram was planning to hijack petrol tankers in the capital and to plant explosives inside.

Emab Plaza, where the attack occurred Wednesday, is the biggest and busiest shopping center in Abuja. The explosion occurred around rush hour as many residents were hurrying to view Nigeria’s football team play against Argentina at the World Cup in Brazil. While it remains unclear if the bomb was timed to coincide with that, Boko Haram has in the past bombed several football viewing venues, prompting two northeastern states to ban public events to watch the football tournament.

On the ground sources have reported that the increased security throughout the city may have prevented the attack from killing even more as witnesses reported that a security guard had stopped a car bomber from entering the mall just moments before the massive explosion on Wednesday.

Continued Attacks in Northern Nigeria

Days after an attack targeted a shopping center in Abuja, an explosion in the northern city of Bauchi has killed at least ten people and injured fourteen others.

Bauchi state police spokesman Mohammed Haruna confirmed Saturday that the targeted building in the Bayan Gari neighborhood, which is located on the outskirts of the city, was widely known as a brothel. He further indicated “ten people were confirmed dead, while 14 others sustained various degrees of injury,” adding that the explosion went off at roughly 10:00 PM (2100 GMT). Police officers have cordoned off the entire area and an investigation into the attack is ongoing.

Bomb attacks on targets, which Boko Haram has branded sinful, including churches, bars and schools teaching a Western curriculum, have formed a major part of the militant group’s insurgency. Nigerian officials estimate that more than 10,000 people have been killed since the conflict began in 2009. In recent months, the violence has escalated with more than 3,000 deaths recorded since the start of this year.

Suspected Boko Haram militants, armed with explosives, attacked a number of churches on Sunday near Chibok, the northeastern town where more than 200 teenage girls were kidnapped nearly three months ago.

Residents have indicated that gunmen riding on motorcycles opened fire on worshippers and pursued them as they tried to flee into the bush. The attackers also threw explosives into churches as services were on going and torched several buildings. Dozens of people are reported to have been killed in the raids on villages located roughly 10 kilometers (6 miles) outside Chibok, however no one has been able to provide an official death toll. The targeted villages have been identified as Kwada, Ngurojina, Karagau and Kautikari. All are located in Borno state, which is the stronghold of the Militant group. Another resident reported “the attackers went to churches with bombs and guns,” adding “from what I gathered, dozens of worshippers, including men, women and children were killed.” Several residents in the area also reported that the Nigerian military had not responded to distress calls, which were sent out shortly after the attack began. While these reports have not been verified, if confirmed, it will likely raise further questions about the military’s efforts in the northeastern region of Nigeria, which is the epicenter of the insurgency.

Last week’s incidents throughout the country have effectively cemented the fact that Boko Haram militants are now capable of carrying out attacks anywhere in Nigeria, sparking fears that the militant group is now seeking to expand its insurgency, moving further south towards Abuja. The attacks have also demonstrated the Nigerian government and military’s inability to coordinate received intelligence and thwart attacks.

Security Advisory: World Cup

Yesterday saw Europe vs Latin America and finished with one to each.  Both matches went down to the wire and things are looking promising for the remainder of the knockout stages.  Today is Europe vs Africa with both Algeria and Nigeria facing uphill battles against Germany and France respectively, both of whom are looking in good form.

The Brazilians have managed fan, spectator, and tourist security very well.  Funnily enough, fan security is more of a headline in home countries rather than in Brazil. France and Colombia have both voiced the need for enhanced security, domestically, during games.  In Brazil, reporting continues to indicate a positive security presence in the host cities and reports show that anti-world cup protests appear to have died off.

Today’s matches are in Porto Alegre (14C, 94% Humidity, rain all day) and Brasilia (29C, 77%H, clear). The game in Porto Alegre is the late game so hopefully it clears up otherwise it’s going to be cold and damp affair.  Despite the heavy weather, there haven’t been any transport concerns in Porto Alegre as we saw in Natal and Recife.

Security Advisory: World Cup

Brazil scraped through by the skin of their teeth… without biting!  From a fan security point of view, this is probably a positive outcome as the longer Brazil stays in the less likely they are to start trouble protesting. I’d rather see the population glued to the screen than getting into fights on the street with visiting fans who goad them on if or when they lose.

Today’s games are in Fortaleza (31C, clear) and Recife (28C, drizzle and could get heavier).  Heavy weather in Recife has proven a problem prior to recent matches when a 40min trip to the stadium has taken 4hrs.   Neither city has seen any serious problems with fan security at games or at fan fests.

Security Update: Fifa World Cup

The first day of the elimination rounds and it’s an all South-American affair for today.  With enthusiasm and fanaticism reaching new levels, expect to see an increased security presence to ensure fan safety, prevent overcrowding and stop crowds forcing entry into the stadium.

This evening’s matches are in Rio (30C, 94% Humidity, clear) and Belo Horizonte (26C, 77%H, clear), Brazil’s 2^nd and 3^rd largest cities respectively.  Both cities are known for violence in the less affluent neighbourhoods and have both seen large protests against the World Cup Finals. Noting this, both cities have hosted four matches each without major incidents.  Occasional reporting of pickpockets and muggings continue but these are most often reported by tourists who stray from the ‘beaten path’ and find themselves isolated, away from the security of others, and without escape route.  Don’t keep all your eggs in one basket; ensure you have some money to hand over in the instance of being mugged as well as money elsewhere to draw upon in emergency.  Know where you are staying and have it written down so you can show a cab driver. If you have a mobile with maps, download the maps before leaving, using wifi, and follow along the route so you know you’re not being ripped off (you can your data stream off and this will still work).

WHO Calls for Drastic Action in Ebola Fight

The World Heath Organization (WHO) on Thursday called for “drastic action” in order to fight the deadliest Ebola outbreak on record, and announced an 11-nation meeting to address the growing crisis.

As of Sunday 22 June, 635 cases of hemorrhagic fever, most confirmed to be Ebola, including 399 deaths, have been reported across Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. This effectively makes the outbreak the largest ever “in terms of the number of cases and deaths as well as geographical spread.” A statement released by the UN agency stressed that “drastic action is needed,” and warned of the danger that the virus could jump to other countries. The WHO’s call for drastic action comes just days after medical charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) indicated that the virus was now “out of control.’

Since the deadly epidemic emerged in Guinea in January, WHO has deployed more than 150 experts in a bid to tackle the crisis. However despite its efforts, and the efforts of other medical charities, over the past three weeks there has been a “significant increase” in the number of cases and deaths reported each day. According to WHO’s regional director for Africa, Dr Luis Sambo, the agency is now “gravely concerned by the on-going cross-border transmission into neighboring countries as well as the potential for further international spread,” adding “this is no longer a country specific outbreak but a sub-regional crisis that requires firm action by governments and partners.”

WHO’s top Ebola specials Pierre Formenty warned last week that the recent surge in cases had likely come in part because efforts to contain the virus had been relaxed too quickly after the outbreak appeared to have slowed down in April. In order to address the on going crisis, officials at the WHO announced Thursday that they will convene a meeting of the health ministers from 11 countries in Accra, Ghana on July 2 – 3 in order “to discuss the best way of tackling the crisis collectively as well as develop a comprehensive inter-country operation response plan.” Ministers from Guinea, where nearly 400 confirmed, suspected and probably cases have surfaced so far, including 280 deaths; and Liberia, which has 63 cases and 41 deaths, will take part in the meeting. Ministers from Sierra Leone will also be present. Additionally, neighboring countries, including Gambia, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, Ivory Coast, Mali and Senegal, and countries as far afield as the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda have also been invited. The meeting will also include a range of UN agencies and other aid organizations including MSF and the Red Cross as well as the Western African, British, EU and US centers for disease control.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, officials from the WHO announced that, at the request of the Sierra Leonean government, they were changing the way it reports fatalities from the Ebola outbreak in the country.

Previously, probable and suspected deaths from Ebola were included in the count however from now on, only laboratory confirmed cases will be reported. Therefore this reduces the death toll in Sierra Leone from 58 to 34 as of 24 June 2014. According to WHO spokeswoman Fadel Chaib, the way that deaths are reported in Guinea and Liberia, which are the other two countries affected by the deadly outbreak, will remain unchanged.

The change comes after Sierra Leone’s press had criticized the government for reporting lower death rates than those reported by the WHO. The changes however now bring the WHO figures inline with those released by the Sierra Leone government. The latest Ebola outbreak has now been named by international organizations as the worst Ebola epidemic ever with 635 cases and 399 fatalities occurring in dozens of sites across the three countries, including in major cities and remote areas. Officials from Doctors Without Borders (MSF) have described the outbreak as “out of control,” adding that it had reports of cases in more than 60 sites and that its resources were now stretched to the limit. In light of the on going outbreak, which has worsened in recent weeks, the European Commission announced Tuesday that it was committing an additional 500,000 euros in funding in order to combat the outbreak. This latest funding brings its total contribution to 1.9 million euros.