MS Risk Blog

Morning Blasts in Cairo

As many as six bombs have been detonated across Cairo, resulting in at least six injuries, including injuries sustained by a potential suspect. The first three blasts occurred minutes apart at metro stations in Cairo during rush hour. Reports have indicated that a fourth explosion detonated later, injuring the sixth victim. The blasts occurred at Shubra station, Ghamra station, Haydek al-Quba Station, and Ezbet al Nakhl station.

On Facebook, the Egyptian Ministry of Interior acknowledged only two of the blasts; those at Shubra and Ghamra stations. The ministry said that the explosion at Shubra station was caused by an improvised explosive device (IED), and the bomb at Ghamra station was a sonic explosive hidden in a rubbish bin. No one was injured in the Ghamra explosion. One man, considered a suspect, was wounded at the Subra station. He appeared to be carrying a homemade explosive device.

Metro services are operating normally.

Approximately an hour later, two other bombs struck near a courthouse in Heliopolis. Two IEDs were placed underneath two cars, causing damage to the vehicles but inflicting no injuries. A third IED was found in the vicinity and defused. Security forces are investigating the incidents and searching for further explosives.

The bombings are the first since President Abdul Fattah al Sisi became president in Early June. Violence and attacks targeting Egyptian security became commonplace after the ouster of Mohamed Morsi in July of last year. The attacks were originally concentrated in the Sinai Peninsula, a stronghold for militant groups, but gradually moved west into Nile Valley Egypt. The Egyptian government has accused the Muslim Brotherhood of supporting militant groups intent on targeting government and security forces, and in November of last year, the Egyptian government declared the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, seizing assets and imprisoning large numbers of individuals accused of affiliations with the group.

While no groups have yet taken responsibility for the attacks, Sinai based extremist group Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, has previously taken responsibility for some of the deadliest attacks in Egypt, including a bombing at a police station in Mansoura in December that left at least 15 dead and 134 injured. The group has stated that their violent actions are in direct relation to the actions taken against the Muslim Brotherhood by the Egyptian government and security forces. In April 2014, the Cairo Court for Urgent Matters designated Ansar Beit al-Maqdis as a terrorist organization. Nearly two weeks after their designation, on April 30, the group posted a YouTube video in which spokesman, Abu-Ahmad al-Misri says, “We have suicide bombers who could turn Egypt into a hell. Our main target is killing off al-Sisi, the Egyptian army, the apostates, and Christians of Egypt.”

Immediately after Sisi’s landslide victory, Ansar Beit al-Maqdis issued a warning: “there will be a decisive battle between faith and disbelief if al-Sisi continues to rule Egypt.” On the militant group’s Twitter feed, the group added, “Will Al-Sisi make it to rule Egypt? If he does, will he continue? It is a battle between faith and infidelity. Finally, we would like to say to tyrants, expect a catastrophe in your backyard, God willing.”

As a result of these messages, security forces have remained heighted in Cairo and other major cities. Once sources said, “Ambushes will be deployed all over Cairo and all vital facilities, which are expected to be under attack by elements of the terrorist group, will also be secured.”

Apart from Ansar Beit al Maqdis, extremist group Ajnad Misr have also been in operation in Cairo, but have fallen relatively silent in recent months. Analysts also fear that the actions could be conducted by individual extremists, or fighters returning from Syria, whose goal would be to destabilise the presidency of al-Sisi and further weaken the Egyptian economy.

Security Advisory: Fifa World Cup

We’re down to the last two days of the group stages and all is going swimmingly.  No incidents reported amongst fans however the Italian contingent has complained about Uruguayan propensity for biting in the box.  When all else fails…

A sit-in, or rather a live-in, protest was set up last night in front of the local government buildings in Sao Paulo.  Protestors will continue to try and capitalise on the media presence during the tournament.  As we progress towards the elimination rounds, expect attempts at protest to increase and this to be reciprocated with efforts of suppression by the security services.

Today’s games are in Porto Alegre (20C, 100% Humidity, heavy rain early clearing towards game time), Salvador (27C, 94%H, slight chance of early rain clearing in the afternoon), Manaus (30C, 89%H, slight chance of rain), and Rio (30C, 94%H, clear).  The Maracana in Rio de Janeiro had fan incursions in the first two games and none during the Belgium vs Russia game.  Although this may have been down to a lack of enthusiasm on behalf of those fans, I suspect it has more to do with enhanced security presence following the embarrassment of the first two matches.

As we near the end of the group stages, fans who don’t have tickets to later matches may be tempted to try pitch invasions or incursions into venues; do not be tempted by such stupidity.  It will only get you arrested and deported.  Deportation may be a badge of honour when it’s done on a political basis but it will be a huge embarrassment when done for criminal reasons.

Security Advisory: Fifa World Cup

The last 24hrs has seen a few security events but none have been in close proximity to fans. The protests in Sao Paulo, Rio and Brasilia were small, up to 200 people, but it’s only those who are prepared to get tear gassed and shot with rubber bullets (neither of which are much fun) who are now showing up.  The police have made it clear that these will be dispersed rapidly and they will not interfere with tourists and football fans.  France24 wrote a good report on the summary of events yesterday, read it here.

Two armed men and a police officer were shot and killed during violence in the Complexo do Alemao favela in Rio de Janeiro.  There is an inexplicable tendency to want visit the less-affluent parts of Brazil, which is incongruous most tourist activities.  Tourists were not piling into South Central Los Angeles in the wake of all the gang violence there but in Rio it seems to be a good idea… If you do venture into the favelas, be aware that you are always a target for crime because your plane ticket may have cost more than they make in a year. Exercise caution, keep your valuables out of sight, and don’t get lost.

On the fan safety front, an Australian fan was ejected when an altercation started with a Brazilian fan.  Unsurprisingly, the police took the Brazilian chap’s side.  The police are friendly and helpful but, like in most places, if you get in a fight with a local, don’t expect the police to take your side; especially if you can’t muster a word of Portuguese.  It’s also a great way to extort a bribe from a tourist.

Today’s fixtures are in Natal (28C, 88% humidity, increasing chance of rain in the evening), Belo Horizonte (24C, 83%, clear), Cuiaba (33C, 83%, clear), and Fortaleza (30C, 83%, dry).  Belo Horizonte was recently added to a warning to UK citizens for a high likelihood of protests.  Be aware of locations where protests have previously occurred and avoid them.  Leave at the first sign of trouble but if you do get caught out, get inside and ride out the storm.

Mauritania’s President Wins Elections

Despite his main rivals boycotting the elections, which they called a sham, preliminary results indicated late Sunday that Mauritania’s President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz has been re-elected after gaining an overwhelming 81.89 per cent of the vote.

The results, which were released by Mauritania’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on Sunday, indicated that Abdel Aziz was firmly ahead of anti-slavery candidate Biram Ould Dah Ould Abeid, who obtained 8.67 per cent. Taking third place was Ibrahima Moctar Sarr, with 4.44 per cent of the vote, while the only female candidate, Lalla Mariem Mint Moulaye Idriss, took only 0.49 per cent.

In the weeks leading up to the elections, which were held Saturday, the former general, who seized power in an August 2008 coup, campaigned strongly, highlighting his successes in fighting armed groups linked to al-Qaeda militants both at home and in neighbouring countries in the Sahel region.

When Abdel Aziz came to power in 2008, kidnappings and attacks carried out by al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) occurred frequently. In 2010 and 2011, Mauritanian troops carried out a number of successful “preventative” raids on AQIM basis in neighbouring Mali. However since then, the President has boasted that he has transformed the nation into a regional haven of peace, mainly thanks to his reorganization of the military and security forces.

While many Western leaders see Mauritania, which is located between the west coast of Africa and the Sahara desert, as a strong fighter against al-Qaeda-linked groups that operate in the region, the country’s opposition has long criticized the president, and has argued that this price of peace has been the result of authoritarian rule. In the weeks leading up to the elections, the opposition called on the country to boycott the vote. However tensions between the president and the opposition are not new as the main opposition parties have never accepted Abdel Aziz’s 2009 presidential victory, with many stating that that election was marred by massive fraud.

The National Forum for Democracy and Unity, an opposition coalition formed of eleven parties, including a moderate Islamist movement, called out to voters ahead of Saturday’s elections to denounce what they call Abdel Aziz’s “dictatorial power.” While the opposition’s hopes of attaining a high abstention rate were not achieved, the boycott did have some affect on the overall turnout. On Sunday, officials from the electoral commission indicated that voter turnout reached 56.46 per cent, below that of the 2009 elections, when participation stood at 64 per cent.

Despite a decrease in voter turnout, African Union (AU) observers indicated Monday that they were satisfied with the vote. The head of the AU mission, Beji Caid Essebsi, who is also Tunisia’s former prime minister, indicated “overall, this election took place peacefully and in a spirit of political tolerance…I welcome the civic sense among the Mauritanians.”   He however also noted the boycott and urged that both political sides to seek dialogue in a bid to prevent any post-election violence.

Security Advisory: FIFA World Cup

Half of the games down (32), and the sky has not fallen upon Brazil and the World Cup Finals. And unless FIFA attempts to snatch disaster from the hands of victory, as the Americans achieved last night in the 95^th minute, all is looking to go well.

Although there is no game in Belo Horizonte today, the UK government has issued a warning concerning the likelihood of protests.  It is the third largest city in Brazil and ranks 48^th out of the 50 most dangerous cities according to the UN’s murder statistics.  That said, six other host cities in Brazil make the list and none have seen much in the way of violence against tourists and fans.  Steer clear of any areas that are known for being protest hotspots and leave at the first signs of unrest; don’t wait for things to get out of hand.

Fan fests have been great parties throughout the country for those who don’t have tickets to the games.  They have had a good balance of freedom and security, preventing crime but letting the public enjoy themselves.  After all, this is Brazil, who is better known for throwing big parties?!

We’re now into the last games of the round robin and there are four games a day for the next four days, two concurrent games, with no late match.  Today’s games are in Sao Paulo (24C, 88% humidity, clear), Brasilia (26C, 77% humidity, slight chance of rain), Curitiba (21C, 94% humidity, clear), Recife (27C, 89% humidity, heavy rain expected).