MS Risk Blog

AQAP Inspire Magazine dedicated to Bomb Making and Lone Wolf Attacks

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s latest publication of Inspire Magazine has been dedicated to urging lone wolf attacks and attacks on commercial passenger jets. The cover story, entitled “Destination airport, and Guess What’s on the Menu?” teaches about how to bomb passenger planes. The digital magazine was released on 24 December, the 5th anniversary of Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab’s Christmas Day 2009 bombing attempt on Northwest Airlines Flight 253 as it was on its landing approach to Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport.

A great deal of space is given to providing detailed instructions on how to build a new bomb AQAP purports can be “hidden” not only on aircraft, but also to blow up other targets with the intent of causing ripples throughout US and Western economies. The magazine lists a series of targets including the following airlines: American, United, Continental and Delta, British Airways, EasyJet, Air France and Air France KLM. The group also seeks “direct economic targets” and high-profile “economic personalities” like former US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and “wealthy entrepreneurs or company owners” like Bill Gates. Of note, the magazine refers to Bernanke as the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, however he stepped down in February.

Issue 13 of Inspire is entitled “Neurotmesis: Cutting the Nerves and Isolating the Head.” The issue also focuses on instigating Muslims to carry out lone wolf attacks against the US, as is specifically stated in the letter by Yahya Ibrahim, the magazine’s editor-in-chief, who says, “Hereby, Inspire magazine is committed to arm Muslim individuals — as well as Muslim groups as is in this issue — in their Jihad on America.” He continues:

“Previously we have presented Muslims with different weapons, including bombs and tactics … Now we are obliged to give our ummah something special. Something unique that can easily be prepared at home — that is the reason we have taken a long period to produce this issue. Here, we give the Muslim ummah a bomb recipe that America fears it might reach the hands of other Mujahideen in other fronts. However, what America didn’t expect is that this recipe is going to be in the reach of all Muslims around the world,” Ibrahim said, noting, “It will circulate in the social media and Muslims will translate it into different languages. Some will be pleased and pass on the message; while others will be inspired and most importantly make the bomb.”

Another piece, “Open Source Jihad”, was written by “AQ-Chef,” who is believed to be Ibrahim Hassan Tali Al Asiri, AQAP’s premier bomb maker. The US Department of State issued a $5 million bounty for on him October 14, 2014. The article details ways to breach airport security, and provides a 37-page set of instructions on how to build “The Hidden Bomb.” The piece also provides various “field tactics” related to selecting targets and executing attacks. A section was dedicated to individuals who had previously attempted to blow up airplanes, including Ramzi Yusuf, Abdulmutallab and Richard Reid (the shoe bomber).

The author writes of failed attempts, stating, “Initially, what we faced as a main problem was: How can a lone Mujahid acquire the required explosive materials. For several months, we conducted a number of experiments. As a result we came up with these simple materials that are readily available around the globe, even inside America – and this is our goal. We spared no effort in simplifying the idea in such we made it ‘another meal prepared in the kitchen’ so that every determined Muslim can prepare.”

The magazine claims that the bomb “is 2.5x as powerful as ‘Umar Farouq’s bomb, and 3x as powerful as the military-grade F1Russian grenade.” AQ-Chef then provides “Field Tactics” for using the bomb to destroy a jetliner: “I assume you have now prepared your hidden bomb after you have been convinced by the importance of this operation both politically and militarily. What is left is identifying the target that will achieve the greatest success […] We have sketched the targets as a part of a complete program we have presented to the Lone Mujahid.” Suggestions include writing a public message prior to the “Martyrdom Operation” via email, and timing its delivery for after the operation.

AQ Chef says in an interview section of the magazine, “Unlike a lab, a kitchen is found in every house. Moreover, if a Mujahid can prepare a bomb from materials used in the kitchen instead of lab materials and use cooking utensils instead of lab apparatus, then we have a double success and we have overcome the security hurdle. Therefore, a larger number of Mujahideen can carry out Jihādi operations. You will notice in this issue specifically we have focused on the kitchen. Generally, we are trying as much as possible to move the lone Mujahid from the lab to the pharmacy and from the pharmacy to the kitchen.”

He adds that airport security imaging could detect the bomb but these devices are not available at all airports. Further, the bombs are not intended for use only in airports, but “they are also used in assassinations as the brothers clarified in their program (Neurotmesis).” He finishes menacingly, “Hereby, I call the National Transportation Safety Board, ‘Do not weary yourself of investigation, the US Department of Homeland Security will take over the job because of a simple reason: This jihadi work belongs to the ‘Global Lone Jihad Movement.’”

Pakistan Moves to End Policy on ‘Good Taliban’

After several months of moving away from supporting some jihadist groups, Pakistan may be making more substantial changes in the aftermath of the Peshawar school massacre. Pakistan’s security agencies have long used militant groups against India and Afghanistan. After the recent school massacre however, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif declared that the Pakistani government would no longer make a distinction between “good” militant groups, or those that help Islamabad achieve its foreign policy goals, and groups that do not. He added that militants “would be dealt equally with an iron hand.” Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan said last Sunday that Pakistan was at war with militants, and asked citizens to help authorities in a countrywide crackdown. Authorities subsequently made several arrests in connection to the school attack. Sharif also lifted a seven-year-old moratorium on the death penalty for terrorist cases, which resulted in the prompt execution of six prisoners. Pakistan’s military controls security policy independent of the civilian government, so it is currently unclear how closely it will follow a zero-tolerance approach to jihadists.  The knee-jerk reaction and quick executions of condemned prisoners who were unrelated to the Peshawar attack will be seen as ill-conceived by some quarters and will fuel further plots for “spectaculars” in future.  The domestic policy debate in coming months will reveal whether the current outcry and related security forces and judicial activity is the start of a new era in anti-terror operations and internal security policy or simple state vendetta in response to public outrage to the targeting of so many innocent children.

What a Lapse in Terrorism Insurance by US Congress Means for Businesses

largely as reported by PBS NewsHour host Judy Woodruff last week

The US Congress has adjourned without reauthorizing the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act beyond its sunset on Dec. 31, 2014, and the absence of the program could have far reaching effects on businesses across the United States. In an interview with PBS NewsHour, American Insurance Association (AIA) President and CEO Leigh Ann Pusey warned, “It’s very hard to conceive of the kinds of losses that can be associated with a terrorist attack. They’re well beyond the capacity of the insurance market right now to provide that.” She says as the program stands currently, many insurers would have to cover between $1 billion and $2 billion in losses before the government backstop would kick in, “and they’re paying a percentage of that backstop even after they have met the deductible.” She says that the program enables the market to charge premiums in exchange for covering the risks of terrorism, which otherwise would be covered by the US taxpayer, “and the more we get can comfortable with this risk over time, the more we can learn about it, we can take on more of it. It will never be a risk that can be totally borne by the private market. And it shouldn’t be… because … it’s national security.” Pusey says that because TRIA was not renewed, insurers will have to review their risks and capacity is likely to shrink over time, prices in certain markets are likely to rise, and some projects could be delayed if developers cannot obtain the required coverage.

Pirates hijack military gunboat in Nigeria’s oil delta

Nigeria’s military says pirates hijacked a military gunboat and three soldiers are missing after an ambush in the southern oil-rich state of Bayelsa.  Spokesman Col. Mustapha Anka says a team on patrol was ambushed Sunday 21 December 2014 on the Santa Barbara River, an area rife with pirates.  Anka said a search-and-rescue operation is continuing to locate the missing soldiers.  In October, pirates on the same river attacked a military escort for a barge carrying oil. They killed three soldiers and fled with a military gunboat.  Pirates in Nigeria steal oil and also kidnap for ransom.  The Nigerian military’s combined Joint Task Force continues to conduct operations to safeguard energy assets throughout the Niger Delta region.  A resurgence of violence by bandits and former members of MEND is an unwelcome distraction for the Nigerian authorities who are engaged in major counter-insurgency tasks in the north east of the country tackling Boko Haram militants whilst managing the effects of reduced oil prices and the consequences to the Nigerian economy.  MS Risk forecasts further security challenges in the region in the coming year.

Concerns of Copycat Attacks in France after Twenty People Left Injured in Three Separate Incidents

On Tuesday, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls sought to ease fears across the country after a recent spate of attacks.  The French government has urged the public to remain vigilant as authorities carry out investigations.  President Francois Hollande has called an emergency cabinet meeting for Tuesday and has urged the public not to panic.  While it appears that French authorities are playing down the idea that there is a pattern behind these three incidents, many are asking whether there is a copycat element to them.

It began on Saturday, when a man in the central town of Joue-les-Tours stabbed three police officers before being shot dead.  Bertrand Nzohabonayo was shot dead after he entered the police station armed with a knife and seriously wounded three officers.  Mr Nzohabonayo had previously committed petty offences however he was not on a domestic intelligence watch list.  According to a source, his brother is known for his radical views and once pondered travelling to Syria.  French anti-terrorism investigators have opened an inquiry into the attack.

Two other incidents followed Saturday’s attack.  On Sunday, a driver shouting “Allahu Akbar” (God is Great) ploughed his vehicle into pedestrians, injuring thirteen people in the city of Dijon.  The prosecutor has since indicated that the attacker had a long history of mental illness and that the incident is not linked to terrorism.  The latest attack occurred Monday, when ten people were injured after a van drove into a Christmas market in the western city of Nantes.  The attack occurred around 19:00 local time (1800 GMT), with witnesses reporting that the van drove into a stall that was selling mulled wine.  After the vehicle came to a halt, the driver stabbed himself in the chest several times, causing himself serious injuries.  French interior minister spokesman Pierre-Henry Brandet has indicated that the motive behind the attack is currently unclear.

While concerns that these attacks may be copycat incidents have spread across France, Prime Minister Valls indicated Tuesday that there was “no link” between these three incidents, adding that security forces are dealing with individuals who were acting alone.  According to Mr Valls, “we do not minimise these acts,” adding that the government wants to “reassure” the public and understand what had happened.

On Monday, Burundi authorities disclosed that they have arrested the brother of the man who was fatally shot in Joue-les-Tours.  Burundi’s National Intelligence Services confirmed that Brice Nzohabonayo was detained in the capital Bujumbura shortly after his brother Bertrand attacked a police station.  Burundi’s intelligence service is currently working with its French counterpart, with sources reporting that investigators are now seeking to establish if any attacks are being planned in Burundi as the country is a contributor to the African Union (AU) force that is currently battling al-Shabaab in Somalia.  Paris prosecutor Francois Molins also announced Monday that the suspect’s sister had been taken into custody on Saturday, adding that she would soon be released as there are no elements suggesting her complicity.

The three incidents in France come as governments around the world brace for so-called “lone wolf” attacks, which are carried out by individuals who are returning from waging jihad abroad, or who are simply following calls for violence made by Islamic State (IS).