MS Risk Blog

What a Lapse in Terrorism Insurance by US Congress Means for Businesses

largely as reported by PBS NewsHour host Judy Woodruff last week

The US Congress has adjourned without reauthorizing the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act beyond its sunset on Dec. 31, 2014, and the absence of the program could have far reaching effects on businesses across the United States. In an interview with PBS NewsHour, American Insurance Association (AIA) President and CEO Leigh Ann Pusey warned, “It’s very hard to conceive of the kinds of losses that can be associated with a terrorist attack. They’re well beyond the capacity of the insurance market right now to provide that.” She says as the program stands currently, many insurers would have to cover between $1 billion and $2 billion in losses before the government backstop would kick in, “and they’re paying a percentage of that backstop even after they have met the deductible.” She says that the program enables the market to charge premiums in exchange for covering the risks of terrorism, which otherwise would be covered by the US taxpayer, “and the more we get can comfortable with this risk over time, the more we can learn about it, we can take on more of it. It will never be a risk that can be totally borne by the private market. And it shouldn’t be… because … it’s national security.” Pusey says that because TRIA was not renewed, insurers will have to review their risks and capacity is likely to shrink over time, prices in certain markets are likely to rise, and some projects could be delayed if developers cannot obtain the required coverage.

Pirates hijack military gunboat in Nigeria’s oil delta

Nigeria’s military says pirates hijacked a military gunboat and three soldiers are missing after an ambush in the southern oil-rich state of Bayelsa.  Spokesman Col. Mustapha Anka says a team on patrol was ambushed Sunday 21 December 2014 on the Santa Barbara River, an area rife with pirates.  Anka said a search-and-rescue operation is continuing to locate the missing soldiers.  In October, pirates on the same river attacked a military escort for a barge carrying oil. They killed three soldiers and fled with a military gunboat.  Pirates in Nigeria steal oil and also kidnap for ransom.  The Nigerian military’s combined Joint Task Force continues to conduct operations to safeguard energy assets throughout the Niger Delta region.  A resurgence of violence by bandits and former members of MEND is an unwelcome distraction for the Nigerian authorities who are engaged in major counter-insurgency tasks in the north east of the country tackling Boko Haram militants whilst managing the effects of reduced oil prices and the consequences to the Nigerian economy.  MS Risk forecasts further security challenges in the region in the coming year.

Concerns of Copycat Attacks in France after Twenty People Left Injured in Three Separate Incidents

On Tuesday, French Prime Minister Manuel Valls sought to ease fears across the country after a recent spate of attacks.  The French government has urged the public to remain vigilant as authorities carry out investigations.  President Francois Hollande has called an emergency cabinet meeting for Tuesday and has urged the public not to panic.  While it appears that French authorities are playing down the idea that there is a pattern behind these three incidents, many are asking whether there is a copycat element to them.

It began on Saturday, when a man in the central town of Joue-les-Tours stabbed three police officers before being shot dead.  Bertrand Nzohabonayo was shot dead after he entered the police station armed with a knife and seriously wounded three officers.  Mr Nzohabonayo had previously committed petty offences however he was not on a domestic intelligence watch list.  According to a source, his brother is known for his radical views and once pondered travelling to Syria.  French anti-terrorism investigators have opened an inquiry into the attack.

Two other incidents followed Saturday’s attack.  On Sunday, a driver shouting “Allahu Akbar” (God is Great) ploughed his vehicle into pedestrians, injuring thirteen people in the city of Dijon.  The prosecutor has since indicated that the attacker had a long history of mental illness and that the incident is not linked to terrorism.  The latest attack occurred Monday, when ten people were injured after a van drove into a Christmas market in the western city of Nantes.  The attack occurred around 19:00 local time (1800 GMT), with witnesses reporting that the van drove into a stall that was selling mulled wine.  After the vehicle came to a halt, the driver stabbed himself in the chest several times, causing himself serious injuries.  French interior minister spokesman Pierre-Henry Brandet has indicated that the motive behind the attack is currently unclear.

While concerns that these attacks may be copycat incidents have spread across France, Prime Minister Valls indicated Tuesday that there was “no link” between these three incidents, adding that security forces are dealing with individuals who were acting alone.  According to Mr Valls, “we do not minimise these acts,” adding that the government wants to “reassure” the public and understand what had happened.

On Monday, Burundi authorities disclosed that they have arrested the brother of the man who was fatally shot in Joue-les-Tours.  Burundi’s National Intelligence Services confirmed that Brice Nzohabonayo was detained in the capital Bujumbura shortly after his brother Bertrand attacked a police station.  Burundi’s intelligence service is currently working with its French counterpart, with sources reporting that investigators are now seeking to establish if any attacks are being planned in Burundi as the country is a contributor to the African Union (AU) force that is currently battling al-Shabaab in Somalia.  Paris prosecutor Francois Molins also announced Monday that the suspect’s sister had been taken into custody on Saturday, adding that she would soon be released as there are no elements suggesting her complicity.

The three incidents in France come as governments around the world brace for so-called “lone wolf” attacks, which are carried out by individuals who are returning from waging jihad abroad, or who are simply following calls for violence made by Islamic State (IS).

Twin Attacks in Northeastern Nigeria

At least twenty-six people have been killed in attacks that were carried out in two major cities in northern Nigeria on Monday.

According to officials and eyewitnesses, the first attack occurred at the Dukku motor park on the outskirts of Gombe city, capital of Gombe state, at roughly 10:50 AM (0950 GMT). The explosion went off as people were boarding a nearby bus. At least twenty people were killed in that attack. Authorities have indicated that the bomb had been planted near a bus that was waiting to fill up. On the ground sources reported that shortly after the attack, a crowd had formed around the bus station, with several locals throwing stones at the security services. Anger has risen across northern Nigeria amidst growing complaints that the security services have repeatedly failed to contain the on-going violence.

The second explosion occurred late afternoon at a market in Bauchi city, the capital of Bauchi state. The attack occurred at roughly 5:00 PM (1600 GMT) however officials have not confirmed that a bomb was responsible. At least six people were killed. Authorities have warned that the death toll from both attacks is likely to rise in the coming days. No group has claimed responsibility for the two attacks however both targeted cities have been previously hit by Boko Haram. The militant group has also in the past claimed a number of attacks at bus stations, often targeting people who are heading to Nigeria’s mainly Christian south.

The attacks come in the wake of a new video released, depicting dozens of people being executed at a school dormitory. In the newly released video, images are shown of people being made to lay face down before being shot dead. There is currently no independent confirmation that Boko Haram is behind this video and it remains unclear where or when it was made however the video bears the militant group’s insignia and shows gun-wielding men chanting “Allah is great” and speaking in the Kanuri language that is associated with the group’s fighters. Boko Haram militants are also known to often target educational establishments.

Violence in the northeastern region of Nigeria is escalating ahead of the holiday season and the 14 February 2015 presidential elections, with many concerned that voting will be impossible in large parts of the region. Over the past several months, the situation in northeastern Nigeria has been worsening however Nigerian authorities appear to be ignoring the situation on the ground. President Goodluck Jonathan, who is running for a second term in office, has on several occasions claimed that Boko Haram’s defeat was imminent, even as the violence has continued to escalate. Last week’s kidnapping of 185 people, who were taken on 14 December from the town of Gumsuri in Borno state has highlighted the severity of the crisis and recalled the kidnapping of more than 200 schoolgirls from a school in the town of Chibok in April. At the time, President Jonathan vowed that such a mass abduction would not happen again.

Ebola Situation Report (17 December 2014)

In the days leading up to 14 December, there has been a total of 18,603 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) that have been reported in five affected countries: Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone and the United States; and three previously affected countries: Nigeria, Senegal and Spain. There have been 6,915 reported deaths. Reported case incidence in Guinea is fluctuating and is on the decline in Liberia. In neighbouring Sierra Leone, there are signs that the increase in incidence is beginning to slow. The case fatality rate in the three intense-transmission countries remains at 70%.

Guinea

In the week leading up to 14 December, a total of 76 new confirmed cases were reported. Since September, the national trend in case reporting across Guinea has been fluctuating, with between 75 and 148 confirmed cases reported each week. World Health Organization (WHO) officials have reported that currently, there is no clear upward or downward trend in national case incidence.

Transmission remains high in the capital city of Conakry, which reported 18 confirmed cases in the week leading up to 14 December. EVD transmission remains high in the neighbouring district of Coyah, with 14 confirmed new cases. South of capital city, in Forecariah, officials have reported a surge in new cases, with 13 new confirmed cases in the past week. The district had reported its first case 12 weeks ago and until now, had reported no more than 4 confirmed cases each week.

Transmission remains persistent in the eastern district of N’Zerekore, with 6 new confirmed cases reported in the week leading up to 14 December. The district of Dubreka reported 3 confirmed cases, while new cases continue to be reported in the outbreak’s epicentre of Gueckedou (2 confirmed cases); Kerouane (5 confirmed cases) and Lola and Kouroussa (2 confirmed cases in each district). In the past week, Macenta reported only three confirmed cases, a sharp decline from the 15 cases that were reported in each of the two previous weeks. WHO officials however have warned that it remains too early to draw conclusions whether this decline in reporting in this district will be sustained. After reporting last week its first case since June, Telimele reported 5 new confirmed cases. While the districts of Kindia and Faranah did not report any new confirmed cases, officials in these two districts reported 21 and 12 probable cases respectively. The northern district of Siguiri reported 4 probable cases. This area requires continued vigilance, particularly due to its proximity to Mali.

Officials in the Guinean capital of Conakry have banned all public Christmas and New Year celebrations in a bid to curb the spread of EVD. A statement issued by Conakry governor Soriba Sorel Camara on 16 December indicated that “large-scale gatherings in public places are suspended for the moment,” adding “beaches will remain closed” and firecrackers and fireworks will also be banned. The capital city’s governor has appealed to residents to “refrain from anything” that would compromise efforts to contain the spread of Ebola. This means avoiding “all gatherings in markets, bus stations, ferry landing stages, hospital and the airport.”

Liberia

At the national level, case incidence in Liberia has been on the decline, with 6 districts reporting new confirmed or probable cases in the week leading up to 14 December.

Transmission remains intense in Montserrado, which includes the capital Monrovia. The district reported 3 confirmed cases and 9 probable cases. Grand Bassa experienced a decline in cases, reporting only one confirmed case after having reported 7 in the previous week. The other districts to report confirmed cases during this period included Bong (1 confirmed case); Grand Cape Mount (2 confirmed cases) and Marigibi (1 confirmed case). In the northern region of the country, Lofa reported no cases for the seventh consecutive week. This is likely due to the strength of response efforts being carried out across the district.

Sierra Leone

EVD transmission across Sierra Leone remains intense, with the country reporting 327 new confirmed cases in the week leading up to 14 December. While WHO officials have reported that there are signs that the increase in case incidence has slowed, and that the incidence may no longer be on the rise, the country reported the highest number of confirmed cases in epidemiological week 50.

EVD transmission remains most intense and persistent in the western and northern districts of the country. The capital city Freetown accounted for 125 of all new confirmed cases. Other western districts that reported new confirmed cases include Port Loko (56 cases); Western Rural Area (52 cases); Bombali (23 cases) and Kambia (11 cases).

In the country’s eastern region, the district of Kono, which has experienced high transmission over the past five weeks, reported 12 confirmed cases in the week leading to 14 December. The neighbouring district of Koinadugu in the northeast reported three cases. Although transmission has been intense in Tonkolili for the past three weeks, in recent weeks the number of new weekly cases has declined from a peak of 56 four weeks ago to 14 cases over the past week. In the southern region of the country, the district of Bo continues to report a high number of new cases, with 24 confirmed cases in the week leading up to 14 December. By contrast, the south-eastern districts of Kenema and Kailahun reported 1 and 3 new cases respectively. Only two districts in Sierra Leone did not report any new cases during this reporting period: Bonthe and Pujehun.

Officials in Sierra Leone have banned any public Christmas celebrations in a bid to halt the spread of EVD. According to the government’s Ebola response unit, soldiers will be deployed across the country throughout the holiday period to ensure that all residents remain indoors. Officials in Sierra Leone have also imposed a two-week lockdown on the eastern diamond-mining district of Kono. The lockdown will effectively limit residents’ movements until 23 December.

Countries with an Initial Case/Cases or with Localized Transmission

Five countries: Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Spain and the United States of America; have reported a case or cases of EVD imported from a country with widespread and intense transmission.

In Mali, a total of 8 cases (7 confirmed and 1 probable) including 6 deaths (5 confirmed and 1 probable) have been reported. The most recent seven cases were reported in the Malian capital Bamako and are not related to the country’s first EVD case, which was reported in Kayes on 24 October. The last confirmed case tested negative for the second time on 6 December and was discharged from hospital on 11 December. All identified contacts of both the initial case and the outbreak in Bamako have now completed the 21-day-follow up. If there are no more reported cases of EVD in Mali, the West African country will be declared Ebola-free by the WHO in mid January.

In the United States, there have been four confirmed cases of EVD and 1 death. All contacts in the country have now completed the 21-day follow-up period. If no further cases are reported in the US, the country will be declared Ebola-free at the end of December.

Nigeria, Senegal and Spain have all been declared Ebola free by the WHO.