MS Risk Blog

Al-Shabaab Storm University in Kenya

On Thursday, al-Shabaab gunmen stormed a university in Kenya, killing at least 147 people in what is now the worst attack to occur on Kenyan soil since the 1998 bombing of the United States Embassy in Nairobi.

The siege ended nearly fifteen hours after the Somali-based group’s gunmen shot their way into Garissa University campus in the pre-dawn attack. According to police chief Joseph Boinet, the attackers “shot indiscriminately” when they entered the university compound. Police later surrounded the campus and exchanged gunfire with the attackers however they were repeatedly repelled.  According to Interior Minister Joseph Nkaissery, four gunmen strapped with explosives were behind the attack – the same number of gunmen that killed 67 people during the 2013 attack on the Westgate Shopping Centre in Nairobi. On the ground sources have disclosed that the militants spared the lives of Muslim students and took many Christian hostages. Officials have indicated that the death toll stands at 147 however they have warned that this toll is likely to increase in the coming days as officers search the campus. At least 79 people were injured, with many airlifted to hospitals in Nairobi. More than 500 students managed to escape. Troops continued to search the campus for any possible insurgents until the siege was declared over late on Thursday, with the national disaster operations centre disclosing that the raid had “ended with all four terrorists killed.” Officials have offered a US $215,000 bounty for the capture of alleged al-Shabaab commander Mohamed Mohamud, a former Kenyan teacher believed to now be in Somalia. He is said to be the mastermind of the Garissa attacks.

Hours into the raid, al-Shabaab spokesman claimed responsibility for the attack on the campus in Garissa, a town located 200 kilometres (120 miles) from the Somali border. The attack comes days after the Australian government warned that it had intelligence that the militant group was planning to carry out attacks in crowded places in the capital city Nairobi.

The latest attack in Kenya has prompted officials from that country, and neighbouring Somalia, to call for closer cooperation. On Friday, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stated that Somalia and Kenya must boost security cooperation between them.

Cooperation and Connectivity in the Western Balkans

The ministers from six Balkan states recently met in Kosovo’s capital, Pristina, for a regional ministerial conference. The meeting of the “Western Balkans 6” begun with a summit in Kosovo that brought together the Foreign and Infrastructure ministers of Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and for the first time, Serbia. The regional decision makers met alongside senior representatives from the international community, including Johannes Han, Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement, and the European Commissioner for Transport, Violeta Bulc, who addressed the conference by video call.

The joint meeting of the Balkan ministers and European Union officials was organized in the same format as all European Union meetings and was chaired by Kosovo’s Deputy PM, Hashim Thaçi. The meeting in Kosovo had been preceded by a series of conferences held in Belgrade, Berlin, and Budva, as well as by a number of informal ministerial meetings. The meetings that created a pathway to this most recent Conference were used to emphasize the need to define common infrastructural and energy projects. At these precursor meetings the Western Balkan countries committed to annually prepare and submit national programs of economic reform to the European Commission.

During the conference in Pristina, discussions for the establishment of a Central Region Transport Network took place. If implemented, this network would ensure a better connection between all the Western Balkans and the European Union, with developments in connections between major cities, economic centers, and the most important seaports. Not only this, but it would also guarantee progression towards a more transparent decision-making process and coordinated approach to economics and infrastructure for the six participating countries. In so far as to say, the meeting emphasized the importance of regional infrastructural connectivity for the implementation of major regional projects in transport and energy.

The plans for such developments are to be presented to the European Commission and European Union countries at a Western Balkans conference, scheduled for late summer in Vienna. If successful, the plans made at this most recent Balkan ministerial meeting will be followed up in Vienna to enable significant connectivity improvements in the region, which will boost overall competitiveness, raise job growth, enable further job creation, and make a real improvement to the lives of Balkan inhabitants.

Whilst the joint meeting itself represented a significant step towards creating a Western Balkans transport network, the meeting also reflected the combination of modest steps and giant leaps the Balkans have taken in cooperation and tolerance since the Balkan conflicts of the 1990’s. Notably, the developments have taken place in the midst of the continued ethnic division and political instability that has become the reoccurring theme since the breakup of Yugoslavia. The modest steps manifest in the sheer participation in the joint meeting, held in Kosovo, as this is the first time Serbia has attended, which serves to illustrate the inclusive nature of the meeting’s cooperation.

On the other hand, the giant leaps in development in cooperation and tolerance between Western Balkan states are characterized by their will to reignite past connections, albeit in a very different way to their former Yugoslav ties, to intensify economic cooperation between them. The intensification of economic cooperation will require EU-compatible reforms in order to ensure the best regulatory environment to implement and operate the planned projects. Moreover, it also means the Balkan states must establish core investment priorities, credible planning, and funding mechanisms, as well as ensuring that their individual countries have the fiscal space to take up the necessary loan-financing to get all the projects implemented on time. From this meeting, it is clear that the path of development for the Balkans is inherently tied to their cooperation, connectivity, and importantly, their economic governance.

Opposition Wins Nigerian Elections

Challenger General Muhammadu Buhari has won Nigeria’s presidential election by 2.57 million votes, defeating incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.

On Wednesday, Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that Gen Buhari, of the All Progressives Congress (APC), won 15,424,921 votes (53.95 percent) of the 28,587,564 total valid ballots case. Rival Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won 12,853,162 votes (44.96) in the elections, which was held on Saturday and Sunday. In a statement released Wednesday, INEC chairman Attahiru Jega stated, “Muhammadu Buhari, of the APC, having satisfied the requirement for the law and scored the highest number of votes, is hereby declared the winner and is returned elected.”

In an unprecedented step, which will likely help to defuse anger amongst disgruntled supports of the former president, Mr Jonathan called Gen Buhari at 5:15 PM (1615 GMT) on Tuesday, prior to the final results being declared, to concede defeat. A spokesman for Gen Buhari’s APC party praised Mr Jonathan, stating, “he will remain a hero for this move. The tension will go down dramatically,” adding “anyone who tries to foment trouble on the account that they have lost the election will be doing so purely on his own.” In a statement released late Tuesday, Jonathan stated, “I promised the country free and fair elections. I have kept my word.” He urged disputes over the results to be settled in court rather than on the street, adding, “nobody’s ambition is worth the blood of any Nigerian.” Jonathan will officials hand over power to Buhari on 29 May.

Gen Buhari’s move is a significant moment in Nigeria’s history, as never before has a sitting president lost an election. Jonathan had led Nigeria since 2010. While he won elections in 2011, over the past year, Nigeria has suffered a series of major attacks carried out by Boko Haram militants, with many believing that Gen Buhari is better positioned to defeat the militant group after Jonathan failed to maintain his promise of ending the six-year insurgency. While military gains against the militant group in recent weeks were welcomed, they were also seen as too little too late, particularly by those who have lived under constant threat.   This was reflected in Borno state, which has been the worst-affected region by the Islamists rampage. Initial results indicated that Buhari won 94 percent of the vote in the state as hundreds of thousands of people defied threats of suicide attacks and bombings to vote. While Buhari has acknowledged that the task of completely defeating Boko Haram will be challenging, along with other challenges, including dealing with widespread poverty, his military background resulted in many believing that the former leader is better equipped to fight the insurgents.

Buhari Leads in Nigerian Elections But Vote Too Close to Call

On Tuesday, partial results from Nigeria’s elections give opposition leader General Muhammadu Buhari a narrow lead over the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, however Mr Jonathan’s strongholds are yet to report final numbers and the final result of the polls is too close to call.

As of mid-Tuesday, just over half of Nigeria’s thirty-six states have declared returns in the vote. A number of the northern states, where Gen Buhari is seen as favourite, still have to declare. Results so far: from 25 states and Abuja (note: candidates need 25% in 24 states for first-round victory)

General Buhari: 10,454,137 votes; passed 25% threshold in 16 states

Mr Jonathan: 9,953,432 votes; passed 25% threshold in 20 states

This is Gen Buhari’s forth run at the presidency, with his prospects drastically increasing over growing frustration and criticism of Jonathan’s handling of Boko Haram’s six-year insurgency.

As was expected, Gen Buhari swept the northern states of Kano and Kaduna however the number of votes he received crushed expectations and have dealt a major defeat to Mr Jonathan. In Kano, which is the state with the second-largest number of voters, Gen Buhari won 1.9 million votes while Mr Jonathan received 216,000. In Kaduna, Gen Buhari won 1.1 million votes to Mr Jonathan’s 484,000. Gen Buhari also won the southern state of Lagos while Mr Jonathan won a large majority in his home state of Bayelsa. While by Monday evening, Gen Buhari was leading by two million votes, this lead was significantly cut after Mr Jonathan gained a landslide victory in Rivers State, where there have been widespread reports of irregularities which have resulted in local officials imposing an overnight curfew in an attempt to prevent any violence from erupting. On Tuesday, electoral commission chairman Attahiru Jega disclosed that a fact-finding team deployed to the state had found there were some voting irregularities with the poll but not enough in order “to warrant a cancellation of the election.”

Counting of the votes in Abuja is being carried out in the presence of party representatives as well as the media and national and international observers. The winner of the 2015 presidential elections is expected to be announced at the end of Tuesday. A victory for Gen Buhari will effectively make Mr Jonathan the first incumbent to lose an election in Nigeria.

Nigeria Election Results Due to Start Trickling In

After an election weekend that was marred by confusion and occasional violence, results from Nigeria’s presidential and parliamentary elections is due to start trickling in late Monday/early Tuesday, however the opposition party has already rejected the outcome in Rivers state and has stated that the polls were “a sham and a charade,” prompting fears that violence may erupt once the results are announced.

Violence and Confusion

Saturday’s parliamentary and presidential elections were marred by technical hitches and violence linked to Boko Haram.

Voting in some parts of Nigeria was extended to Sunday after problems occurred with the new electronic card readers. President Goodluck Jonathan was amongst those whose registration to vote was delayed because of the technology, which was introduced in order to prevent fraud. His Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which opposed the card readers, called it a “huge national embarrassment,” while election commission chief Attahiru Jega disclosed that only a fraction of the 150,000 card readers being used nationwide had failed.

Boko Haram maintained its promise of disrupting the elections, attacking several polling stations in northeastern Nigeria, which prompted officials to declare a curfew in Bauchi state after fighting erupted between troops and the insurgents.

• 29 March – In the wake of troops fighting Boko Haram fighters outside of Bauchi city, the state capital of Bauchi, authorities have imposed an indefinite lockdown on three areas. On the ground sources have reported that late Sunday, soldiers, supported by two fighter jets, intercepted the militants who were in 20 pick-up trucks at Dungulbe village, which is located seven kilometres (four miles) from the state capital. The troops engaged them in fierce fighting, with a military officer in the city disclosing “the fighter jets are pounding the enemy position while ground troops are engaging them… The operation is still on-going but the terrorists have suffered serious losses and are in disarray.” Residents reported that the insurgents arrived in Dungulbe at around 10:00 am (0900 GMT) and set up camp in preparation for an invasion of the city. The militants are believed to have come through the town of Alkaleri, which is 60 kilometres (37 miles) away, where they carried out a dawn raid on Saturday. A spokesman for the Bacuhi state governor disclosed that an indefinite, round-the-clock curfew had been imposed on three areas, Bauchi, Kirfi and Alkaleri, because of the fighting, stating that it was imposed in order to “…enable security agencies to restore normalcy in the affected areas… By this curfew, residents of the three affected local governments are to remain in their homes until further notice.” The main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate for the Bauchi state governorship, Mohammed Abullahi Abubakar, has blamed the curfew on his political opponents, claiming “the curfew was only an attempt by the PDP (Peoples Democratic Party) to tinker with the results of the elections.”
• 28 March – At least seven people were killed in separate attacks in the northeastern Nigerian state of Gombe on Saturday, with suspected Boko Haram militants opening fire on voters at polling stations. The first attacks took place in the neighbouring villages of Birin Bolawa and Birin Fulani in the Nafada district of Gombe, which has been repeatedly targeted by the militant group. According to an election official, “we could hear the gunmen shouting, ‘Didn’t we warn you about staying away from (the) election?’” The election official disclosed that the masked gunmen arrived in Birin Bolawa in a pickup truck at around 8:30 AM (0730 GMT), shortly after accreditation for Saturday’s presidential elections had begun. One voter was shot dead while many civilians fled in panic. On the ground sources have disclosed that the gunmen had set fire to all the election materials. The second attack occurred at about 9:15AM. At about 11:30 AM, gunmen stormed the town of Dukku, 80 kilometres (50 miles) from the state capital Gombe. Residents reported that the gunmen shot randomly as voters queued up at polling stations. At least three people, including a state assembly lawmaker, were killed in the attack. Last month, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau warned in a video message that the militants would disrupt Saturday’s general elections, which they have called “un-Islamic.” Officials have disclosed that there were twenty-eight Boko Haram attacks in the three weeks after the delay was announced, compared with eighteen that occurred in the three weeks beforehand, effectively representing an increase of 56 percent.
  • Police officials disclosed Saturday morning that an explosion struck a polling station at a primary school in the city of Awka. The attack, which occurred Saturday morning, claimed no casualties. According to Uche Eze, police spokesman for Anambra state, of which Awka is the capital, “no lives were lost and none injured. The police bomb squad has moved in.” The state of Anambra has often been affected by political thuggery around election time.
  • Gunmen shot dead a Nigerian soldier in an ambush that occurred in the southern oil hub of Port Harcourt on Saturday. According to Brigadier-General K.A. Essien confirmed the attack however military officials have not released any further details pertaining to the incident.
  • On Saturday, a bomb exploded at a polling station in a primary school in the northeastern city of Enugu. The attack occurred hours before the polling station opened. Enugu police spokesman Stephen Lar confirmed that attack, disclosing, “no life was lost but there were blood stains on the vehicle that conveyed the bomb showing the occupant may have been injured.”
  • Suspected Boko Haram gunmen attacked public buildings and security checkpoints in the northeastern town of Alkaleri. According to on the ground sources, a police station, the office of the paramilitary Nigeria Security and Civil Defense force and the local electoral commission premises were all burned to the ground.
  • An official disclosed Saturday that suspected Boko Haram gunmen beheaded twenty-three people and set fire to homes in Buratai, northeastern Nigeria, on the eve of the country’s general elections. According to Mohammed Adamu, who represents the town, which is located 200 kilometres (125 miles) from Borno’s capital Maiduguri, “there was an attack on Buratai late Friday by gunmen suspected to be insurgents…They beheaded 23 people and set homes on fire,” adding “at least half the village has been burnt.” At least thirty-two people were injured in the attack. While further details pertaining to the incident were not immediately available, the attack is consistent with Boko Haram’s past strikes in the area.

Results

While the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) initially indicated that the first results from 120,000 polling stations nationwide would be available Sunday evening, officials have since pushed this back, with the results now not expected to be released until either late Monday or early Tuesday. Sources have disclosed that turnout amongst the 56.7 million registered voters appears to have been high.

As millions of Nigerians wait for the results, tensions remain high and fears are growing that violence, which already erupted in some parts of the country on Sunday, may spread.

Thousands of supporters of the main opposition party demonstrated on Sunday in the state of Rivers, with many calling for the cancellation of elections locally over alleged irregularities. This prompted local police to fire warning shots in a bid to disperse the crowd. One group stoned a car they though was carrying the ballots. Demonstrators supporting the All Progressives Congress (APC) converged on the local offices of the INEC in the state capital, Port Harcourt. According to River state governorship candidate Dakuku Peterside, “we are here to register our protest that there was no election in Rivers state yesterday (Saturday).” Mr Peterside alleges that APC supporters across the southern state were “disenfranchised by INEC, working in connivance with (the) PDP.” He alleges that results sheets, which in Nigerian elections are given at every polling station to both the local electoral commission and party representatives after the count, were not provided and that instead “INEC in collaboration with (the) Peoples Democratic Party hijacked the materials and were filling them in private homes for the PDP.” Mr Peterside has called for the presidential and parliamentary elections to be re-held in the state. Protests continued on Monday, prompting police to use tear gas to disperse the demonstration, which was carried out by at least 100 female APC protesters. INEC chairman Attahiru Jega has disclosed that he is investigating the complaints. The southern state is seen as a key battleground for the presidential election.

In an increasing sign that the opposition will likely challenge the results, the APC governor of the southern Imo state, Rochas Okorocha, denounced the conduct of the election in his region, accusing the military of meddling in the result. Meanwhile in Bauchi state, hundreds of youths gathered outside the INEC office shouting APC slogans and shouting that they would protect their vote from rigging. The military fired warning shots to disperse the crowds.

Despite some violence and technical difficulties, on Monday, the African Union (AU) praised the conduct of Nigeria’s general election however officials have urged the political parties to resolve any disputes in court. In its preliminary findings, the African Union Election Observation Mission (AUEOM) disclosed that the vote was “conducted in a peaceful atmosphere within the framework that satisfactorily meets the continental and regional principles of democratic elections.”  Regional bloc ECOWAS also urged Nigerians to accept the results.

The United Nations Secretary General also congratulated Nigeria for holding a “largely peaceful and orderly” ballot, however Ban Ki-moon called on citizens to “maintain a peaceful atmosphere and to exercise patients.” The Secretary also condemned attacks carried out by Boko Haram and other militants who attempted to disrupt the presidential and parliamentary polls.