Spike in cross-border smuggling networks between Belarus, Poland and Lithuania

Key Judgements

• Large-scale increases in low-cost aerial smuggling methods over the Polish, Belarusian and Lithuanian border area, centred around commercially available drones and weather balloons, highlight he ‘hybrid’ nature of threats in the area.
• Recent balloon incursions have caused widespread disruption and temporary closures of airports and border crossings, highlighting the high-impact nature of this issue
• Smuggling activity is likely to continue at this point in time, with a sustained disruption risk to regional logistics and aviation.

Objective

To assess the recent spike in air-borne smuggling activity from Belarus into Lithuania and Poland to consider its wider implications on regional tensions.

Context

It is no secret that Belarus has been the key supplier of illegal Tobacco products into the EU in recent times. Even beyond today’s tobacco issue, Belarus has long been a key transit state for illegal fuel, alcohol and other illicit goods, an issue which has intensified alongside rapidly souring border tensions since 2022, almost entirely tied with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent scrutiny from within the EU. Belarusian disregard for EU opinions is the best evidence of its ever-increasing Russian influence. Belarusian dependence on the Kremlin and the poor relationships with border nations are interlinked and mutually reinforcing at this time.

With an increased flow of migrants and contraband, it is easy to understand the reasoning behind enhanced border controls. As a result, truck-based smuggling took a hit; however, the same cannot be said for aerial methods, which are now widely preferred.

The National Library of Medicine estimated that just under 30% of discarded cigarette packets were illicit; of that percentage, 90% originated in Belarus. The study concludes that the trade of illicit cigarettes in Lithuania is more concerning than first thought.

The trade closed Vilnius airport and caused Lithuania to close its remaining land border with Belarus. Poland remains a secondary victim in the case of illicit tobacco but is actively managing sustained Belarusian-backed migrant-smuggling networks.

Timeline

2023-2024: Growing detection of balloon-based drops, a secondary issue behind migration smuggling networks

2025: Lithuania begins ICJ proceedings accusing Belarus of facilitating migrant flows, providing the backdrop for increased border scrutiny

Oct – Nov 2025: Surge in balloon incursions closes airports and renews border shutdown in Lithuania.

Analysis

Smuggling networks have certainly adapted to stronger border controls by switching to airborne distribution methods, which are more accessible and cause a disproportionate disruption to aviation safety and border control.

Poland is certainly less concerned by cigarettes in comparison to migrant smuggling pressures, but Lithuania has to treat repeated operational delays with a higher degree of seriousness, largely to avoid reputational consequences and economic knock-on, especially given Lithuania’s lack of comprehensive airspace denial capability, which has failed to stem the level of balloon traffic. Current measures are best described as reactive rather than preventative, regulatory responses seem to be focused on a general increase in the rigidity of controls surrounding supply chains and minor sanctions to Belarusian entities linked to the illegal trade.

The pattern and timing of spikes in smuggling are consistent with the view that, at the very least, Belarus is tolerating these activities, potentially even leveraging them as a tool within a broader campaign.

Smuggling will likely remain a persistent threat and will probably prompt a further EU regulatory response. However, the issue is highly unlikely to reach a top priority status in the region, given the wider circumstances. Relations with the Belarusian state are also unlikely to improve at this moment in time, meaning the tolerance of smuggling activity is also likely to continue. It is highly unlikely that this issue will become a core concern in the area at this moment in time due to the focus of all nations involved being firmly fixed on the Russian – Ukraine conflict. The smuggling of migrants presents a greater threat at this point in time within the region. therefore Tabacco will continue to be seen as a secondary issue at worst.