MS Risk Blog

Yemen Calls for Gulf Military Intervention

23 March– Yemen’s foreign minister Riyadh Yaseen has called on Gulf Arab military intervention in Yemen to stop territorial advances by Houthi fighters opposed to President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi. In a televised interview, Yaseen said, “They’re expanding in territory, occupying airports and cities, attacking Aden with planes, detaining whom they please, threatening and gathering their forces.” Yasseen added, “We have expressed to the Gulf Cooperation Council, the United Nations as well as the international community that there should be a no-fly zone, and the use of military aircraft should be prevented at the airports controlled by the Houthis.”

The call for assistance comes as Yemen’s rebel Houthis escalated attacks against President Hadi, who fled to Aden last month after escaping house arrest at the hands of Houthis in Sanaa. Over the weekend, he made a defiant speech challenging the Houthis in his first public address since leaving Sanaa.

Rebel leader Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, who is reportedly backed by supporters of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, vowed to send fighters into the southern part of the country where Hadi has taken refuge against the rebels. In one of his customary long and heated speeches over the weekend, al-Houthi said the move is meant to target al-Qaeda and other militant groups, as well as forces loyal to Hadi in the south. He referred to President Hadi as “puppet” to international and regional powers, and called the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Qatar conspirators against Yemen.

Al-Houthi’s speech came a day after the Houthis called for a general mobilization against forces loyal to Hadi, and shortly after Houthi rebels seized the country’s third largest city of Taiz, an important station in its advance. The militia had also seized Taiz’s airport. Thousands of protestors swelled into the streets to oppose the capture of the city; the rebels dispersed them by firing into the air and beating them back with batons. The Houthis have taken control of the capital and six provinces.

Amid the unrest, terrorist groups are also gaining greater ground. Over the weekend, al-Qaeda seized the town of al-Houta amid growing violence. And on Friday, ISIS affiliates claimed responsibility for two bombs at mosques in Sana’a, killing up to 150 people. If their responsibility is verified, this marks the first large-scale actions in Yemen, and could drive Yemen further into instability.

In light of the escalating unrest, US troops evacuated al Anad air base on Sunday About 100 American troops and Special Forces units were stationed at the air base. UK Special Forces have pulled out of Yemen as well. The troops were reportedly airlifted from the capital Sana’a over the weekend. Jeff Rathke, US State Department spokesman, said in a statement: “Due to the deteriorating security situation in Yemen, the US government has temporarily relocated its remaining personnel out of Yemen.” The UK Government has not commented on the withdrawal of British troops.

The CIA and US military have carried out drone strikes against insurgents in Yemen for many years. Diplomats from the United States and several European nations fled Yemen in February amid embassy closures resulting from deteriorating security conditions.

Capture of Los Zetas Cartel’s Kingpin & Evolution of the Security Situation in Mexico

Mexican security forces arrested on March 4 the leader of Los Zetas drug cartel. This is the second important capture of a kingpin this month in a boost by President Enrique Peña Nieto’s effort to fight organized crime. Omar Treviño Morales alias “Z-42”, brother of arrested ex-Zetas leader Miguel Angel Treviño, was caught by Mexican federal police officers and soldiers in the city of Monterrey.

His capture happened just a few days after the arrest of the leader of the Knights Templar cartel called Servando Gomez who was the most wanted cartel leader in Mexico. Los Zetas cartel have been blamed for many of the atrocities carried out by Mexican drug-trafficking organizations in a wave of violence that has claimed more than 100,000 lives since 2007. Raul Benitez, a security expert at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) said: “Omar Treviño was the heir to all the Zetas who were going down.” Indeed, the cartel has been weakened by the killing of former boss Heriberto Lazcano in 2012 and the subsequent capture of Miguel Angel Treviño in 2013. The U.S., which claims that Omar Treviño Morales is responsible for numerous kidnappings and murders as well as cocaine smuggling, had offered up to $5 million for information leading to his arrest.

Among the most infamous incidents pinned on Los Zetas are an arson attack on a Monterrey Casino in 2011 that killed 52 people, the massacres of dozens of migrant workers, and the dumping of 49 decapitated bodies near Monterrey in 2012. Los Zetas cartel originally founded by army deserters, controls several Mexican states mainly located in the north and south-eastern part of the country (as presented in the map below) and are considered as one of the most powerful cartel of Mexico.

This series of arrest happen in an attempt by PRI President Peña Nieto to improving security in northern Mexico, both to improve the quality of life for residents, and to help pave the way for the entrance of new investments in oil and gas. In addition to conducting several capture of senior Zetas leaders, police forces in the state of Nuevo Leon have succeeded in drastically reducing crime rates in the city of Monterrey. However, security issues continue to be a major cause for concern in another Zetas stronghold, the state of Tamaulipas.

In the state of Nuevo Leon, the creation of a new highly professional police force unit named the Fuerza Civil, has helped reducing the number of homicides. The capture of major drug kingpins is important, but it needs to be part of a broader, locally-focused security strategy. Generally, Mexico’s murder rate is falling but more needs to be done, and particularly when considering the violence-plagued states of Guerrero, Michoacán and Tamaulipas.

Those states are wrapped in a political-military conflict between numerous illegal armed groups that favour a spiral of security deterioration. The recent advance of the armed self-defense forces has accelerated this dynamic. The risk of an escalation in violence is latent as more actors enter in the complex issue of the drug war. Besides, as stated before, the capture of drug kingpins is certainly efficient in weakening the cartels but only on a short-term period. Los Zetas cartel are not just violent because their leaders are, they follow an economic model that relies on controlling territory by adopting a violent way. Within that territory, they extract rents from other criminal actors and move only a limited amount of illegal goods via their own networks. Thus, without that territory, they have no rent. Los Zetas’ model depends on their ability to be more violent and powerful than their competitors, so they can extract this rent.

On the overall, the arrests of drug kingpins has provoked internal conflicts within the different cartels that lost control capabilities and resulted in them being splintered into smaller criminal organizations. Those smaller organizations pose a direct challenge to Mexico’s domestic security because they will be in competition for turf and network control. Therefore, in spite of those publicized arrests, is it unlikely that the security situation in Mexico and especially in the states of Guerrero, Tamaulipas and Michoacán will be improved in the short-term. There is a need to improve Mexico’s security apparatus, which involves removing the incentives that drive drugs cartels to violence.

Ebola Situation Update (18 March 2015)

In total, there have been 24,701 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) reported in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with 10,194 deaths reported.

In the seven days leading up to 15 March, a total of 150 new confirmed cases of EVD were reported, compared with 116 that were reported in the previous week. Guinea reported 95 new confirmed cases, the highest weekly total for the country this year. Sierra Leone reported 55 new confirmed cases over the same period, which is the country’s lowest weekly total since late June 2014. Liberia reported no new confirmed cases of EVD for the third consecutive week.

A total of twelve districts in Guinea and neighbouring Sierra Leone reported a confirmed case during this reporting period. According to officials, all these districts lie on a “geographically contiguous arc in and around Conakry to the north and Freetown to the south.” While transmission is currently confined to this geographic corridor, the population is this region is highly mobile and there is a great deal of movement throughout the surrounding districts and countries.

Guinea

In the week leading up to 15 March, 95 confirmed cases of EVD were reported, compared with 58 that were reported in the week before.

According to World Health Organization (WHO) officials, the current transmission has been confined to an area in and around the capital city Conakry (25 confirmed cases) as well as the nearby prefectures of Boffa (3 cases), Coyah (20 cases), Dubreka (2 cases), Forecariah (42 cases), and Kindia (3 cases). 

Sierra Leone 

In the seven days leading up to 15 March, Sierra Leone reported a total of 55 confirmed cases of EVD, compared with 58 that were reported in the previous week.

Cases were reported from six northern and western districts in and around the capital city Freetown, which reported 29 new confirmed cases during this reporting period. The following neighbouring districts also reported cases: Bombali (6 cases), Kambia (4 cases), Port Loko (11 cases) and Western Rural (3 cases).

Liberia

No counties in Liberia have reported a confirmed case of EVD within the past 21 days.

The 15^th of March was day 12 since the final patient in Liberia tested negative for EVD for a second time. Forty-two days must pass before transmission can be considered to have ended and Liberia can be declared Ebola-free, however an additional period of heightened vigilance will be required in order to aid in preventing another outbreak.

Gunmen Attack Tunisian Museum

18 March- Gunmen dressed in military uniforms and armed with grenades and assault rifles attacked the National Bardo Museum in central Tunis, killing nineteen. Among the dead were seventeen foreigners including Italian, Spanish, Polish and German citizens. The museum is near the national Parliament, which was evacuated as police officers responded to the attack. Tunisian officials have suggested that Parliament was the originally intended target, as reports emerged that legislators were discussing an antiterrorism law on Wednesday.

Among the dead were seventeen tourists and two Tunisians. Eight people were killed as they alighted from a bus to visit the museum. A further ten were taken hostage and then killed. A Tunisian museum guard who was injured in the attack and died later of his wounds. During a news conference, Prime Minister Habib Essid said that 24 more people were injured in the attack.

The identity of the two terrorists has not been established. There are reports that a third gunmen and additional operatives may remain at large. At the time of this writing, the operation at the museum remains ongoing but is near completion, according to Tunisian authorities.

Protests in Tunisia beginning in 2010 were the spark of a series of popular revolts in the region termed “The Arab Spring”. Tunisia has experienced a successful, although at times turbulent, transition of governments and has fostered democracy. The nation recently held presidential and parliamentary elections. Recently elected Prime Ministar Essid called the incident “a critical moment in our history, and a defining moment for our future.” Tunisia is striving to reinvigorate its economy and tourism industry after years of unrest; tourism is a critical sector in Tunisia’s economy.

However while Tunisia has enjoyed a degree of success, today’s attack reveal the significance of another emerging issue for the nation. A number of Tunisians have left the country to become fighters abroad. Some have left to join the fight against Bashar al Assad in Syria, while others have been tempted by recruiters for ISIS. Recruiters for the terrorist group have taken advantage of the unrest in Tunisia and targeted jaded youth; including those who are angry with the high unemployment rate and the abusive police force (remnants of the old regime). Tunisia is currently one of the largest sources of foreign fighters for ISIS. In December 2014, a video of three Tunisian fighters for ISIS warned that Tunisians would not live securely “as long as Tunisia is not governed by Islam.” Today’s attacks indicate that Tunisia may experience similar attacks as fighters return to the country. This concern rings true for many nations across the Middle East and North Africa.

Tunisia’s woes are amplified by the unrest in neighbouring Libya has become increasingly unstable. Fighting in Libya has come close to Tunisian borders, and Tunisian security forces have engaged in battles with terrorist elements who cross into Tunisia in the mountainous regions that share a border with Libya. Tunisian authorities have also battled with fighters linked to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb who occasionally target Tunisian security forces.

Today’s attack comes a day after ISIS reported the death of a prominent Tunisian field commander during fighting in Libya. A eulogy statement posted online late on Monday said Ahmed al-Ruwaysi, also known as Abu Zakariya al-Tunisi, was killed in recent days amid clashes in Sirte. Al-Tunisi, according to the eulogy, planned and participated in the 2013 assassinations of two prominent liberal Tunisian politicians: Mohammed Brahmi and Chokri Belaid. It is likely that the attacks today are directly related to the death of Al-Tunisi.

Tuaregs Call for Further Talks After Initially Rejecting Peace Agreement

Mali’s Tuareg-led rebels have called for a meeting with mediators just one day after they rejected the United Nations-brokered preliminary peace agreement.

On Monday, the Tuareg-led rebels called for a meeting with Algerian mediators in a bid to “improve” a proposed peace agreement signed with the government in the capital city Bamako. After meeting for days in order to discuss the agreement, the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), which represents five rebel groups, had initially rejected the accord, stating that it was “fundamentally flawed.” They later released a “final statement,” which has called for further talks, stating that the document was a good basis for further discussions, however noting that it did not reflect the aspirations of their people and that it must now be improved in the interests of peace. The statement indicated that “according to the views expressed by the various communities of Azawad, it appears that the draft agreement did not take into account essential elements of the legitimate aspirations of the people of Azawad,” adding that the CMA” reiterates its firm commitment to pursue the aegis of international mediation.” The statement went on to say that “the CMA believes that the document produced by the mediation constitutes a good basis for work that needs to be improved in the best interests of peace… Therefore, it requests a meeting with the mediation and international partners in order discuss the progress of the process.”

The Algiers Agreement, which is the product of over eight months of negotiations, aims to bring a lasting peace to the northern desert region, which the rebels refer to as “Azawad.” The agreement was signed by the Malian government and several smaller groups however the Tuareg-led rebels had requested additional time in order to consider the offer.

Mali’s desert northern region has struggled for stability since the West African nation gained independence in 1960. Since 1962, the Tuareg movement has launched four uprisings in a bid to fight Mali’s army over the territory, which they claim is their homeland. Ministers and various rebel groups, composed of Arab organizations and the Tuaregs, are now seeking to resolve the decades-old conflict. A coup in Bamako in March 2012 enabled the Tuaregs to seize Mali’s vast northern region however the separatist uprising was later taken over by al-Qaeda-linked militants who took over the region. In early 2013, French troops forced the militants out of their strongholds and into the desert and mountains however recent attacks on bases and the targeting of convoys has raised fears that the militants are once again gaining strength.

While the UN has urged the rebels to sign the proposed deal protests have broken out in Kidal, which is the rebel stronghold in northern Mali, against the agreement.