MS Risk Blog

Six UN Workers Killed in Somalia

At least six United Nations workers killed in Somalia in an attack launched by al-Shabaab, just one day after the militant group killed three African Union (AU) troops.

Police officials have confirmed that at least six UN workers were killed in Somalia on Monday when a huge bomb placed by al-Shabaab militants destroyed a bus in the northeastern town of Garowe, the capital of the semi-autonomous Puntland region.

Somali police official Abdullahi Mohamed disclosed Monday “we have confirmed the death of six UN staff, including a foreign national,” adding “the bomb is believed to have been attached to the minibus and was detonated near the UN office.” While officials are currently carrying out an investigation into the attack, witnesses and security officials have suggested that the explosion may have come from a roadside bomb that was detonated as the minibus, which is used to transport staff from a guesthouse to the UN compound, was passing. Mr Mohamed has indicated, “investigations are still ongoing to establish how it happened but I can confirm you that the UN compound was not affected.”

The head of the UN in Somalia, Nick Kay, has condemned the attack, stating that he was “shocked and appalled by (the) loss of life.” Shortly after the attack, al-Shabaab insurgents claimed responsibility, stating that the UN is a “colonization force in Somalia.” The militant group has in the past targeted the UN. In December 2014, four people were killed when a suicide bomber rammed a car packed with explosives into a UN convoy in the capital Mogadishu.

Monday’s attack comes a day after al-Shabaab militants killed three AU soldiers in southern Somalia.

African Union officials confirmed Monday that al-Shabaab militants killed three AU soldiers in Somalia on Sunday. AU envoy to Somalia Maman Sidikou condemned “the cowardly ambush” on a convoy of troops. The incident occurred Sunday as the convoy was travelling in the southern Lower Shabelle district, between the settlements of Lego and Balidogle.

Al-Shabaab spokesman Abdulaziz Abu Musab confirmed that the militant group was responsible for the attack, adding that five AU soldiers had been killed and that several vehicles were destroyed. While he indicated that the soldiers were from Burundi, AU force officials have not released any details pertaining to the nationalities of the victims.

The latest attacks come as al-Shabaab militants on Saturday shot dead a lawmaker in the capital Mogadishu in what is the latest in a string of assassinations of politicians in the Horn of Africa nation. According to an al-Shabaab spokesman, Adan Haji Hussein, an MP in the semi-autonomous northern region of Puntland, was killed in Mogadishu during a visit to the capital city. Abdulaziz Abu Musab confirmed “our commandos shot and killed Adan for being a member of the apostate administration,” warning “all MPs, whether they are regional or so-called national MPs, we will kill them.” Omar Dalha, a fellow MP, confirmed the death and has called on the government to investigate the murder.

The VII Summit of the Americas

On April 10-11 in Panama City, Panama, the Heads of State and Government of the Americas were gathered for the Seventh Summit of the Americas. This year the Summit was especially important as it saw the historic presence of Cuba whose President Raul Castro addressed his counterparts and held face to face talks with Barack Obama, the first Cuban leader to do so since the its expulsion from the Organization of American States in 1962 imposed by the United States.

Regional leaders have widely hailed it as a victory for left-leaning and progressive forces in the region, and particularly Venezuela and Cuba. Several issues were highlighted during the Summit such as Cuban-US relations, energy solutions, climate change, peace in Colombia, Venezuelan-US relations and Argentina’s long-standing claim of sovereignty over the Falkland Islands. During the summit, President Obama met with President Raul Castro and both said that their meeting will help their countries turn the page after decades of important hostility. It is likely that both countries will still have differences but they will advance mutual interests. President Obama said: “What we have both concluded is that we can disagree with a spirit of respect and civility. Over time, it is possible for us to turn the page and develop a new relationship between our two countries.” President Castro has called for the lifting of the US economic blockade on Cuba and the country’s removal from Washington’s list of state sponsors of terrorism. However, for the US human right in Cuba and political reform are key issues. President Obama is expected to remove Cuba from the terrorism list in the coming days, which would further demonstrate US’s commitment to improving its ties with Cuba.

However, the much anticipated rapprochement between the US and Cuba was quite upstaged by regional leaders’ rejection of President Obama’s March 9 Executive Order that labelled Venezuela a “national security threat”, which has been condemned by 33 nations and other regional bodies. While positively noting the steps taken by President Obama to re-establish bilateral ties with Cuba, President Castro nonetheless criticized President Obama for his aggressive measures against Venezuela. The US also imposed sanctions on 7 Venezuelan top officials last month it accuses of human rights violations. A potentially tense moment of the Summit was avoided when President Maduro did not follow through on a pre-summit pledge to confront President Obama with 10 million signatures on a petition demanding the removal of the sanctions. Instead, President Maduro said the petitions would be delivered through diplomatic channels. This change of the initial strategy came after a senior US State Department official flew to Caracas to meet with Maduro, and Obama and other top officials walked back language declaring Venezuela’s political and economical instability a threat to US national security.

During the plenary sessions of the Summit, Venezuela was supported by other nations such as the presidents of Latin America’s two most populous and economically powerful nations: Brazil with President Rousseff, who only briefly criticized the US sanctions on Venezuelans as “counterproductive and inefficient”, and Mexico with President Enrique Peña Nieto, who delivered an attack-free address to the assembly. This support from other regional leaders is also characterized by their global desire of a lesser US intervention in the region and especially on political or military aspects. Bolivian President Evo Morales expressed this by saying: “We don’t want more Monroes in our continent, nor more Truman doctrine, nor more Reagan doctrine, nor more Bush doctrine. We don’t want any more presidential decrees nor more executive orders declaring us threats to their country.”

The pressure put on the United States by regional leaders on several matters is escalating and it is highly likely that this will continue in a short- to mid-term period until US intervention in internal matters does not stop. However, both the meetings between the US with Cuba and with Venezuela demonstrated that improvements in their relations are possible and that steps in order to move forward will be taken by all sides. The Summit concluded with a Declaration from President Varela delivered at the end of the event. In his speech, the Panamanian president said he convened the summit “with a universal character” and that the result was a “historic” event, through the presence, for the first time, of Cuba. He then added that “the decision announced by the presidents of Cuba and the United States to move forward with a new approach to the relations between their countries created a legitimate expectation that situations, both old and new, that have made for tense hemispheric relations can be resolved.”

Al-Shabaab Recruitment in Kenya

Reports have surfaced that Somali-based al-Shabaab is heavily recruiting in northeastern Kenya. The news comes just days after the militant group targeted Somalia’s higher education ministry in the capital city, Mogadishu.

On the ground sources have reported that in the town of Isiolo in northeastern Kenya, twenty-six young men have disappeared, with officials suspecting that they have joined the militant group.   Sources have indicated that here are similar concerns in other parts of the country. Al-Shabaab’s recruitment in Kenya marks a change of tactic for the group and highlights fears voiced by Kenyan intelligence services and MP’s that the Somali-based militant group is increasingly threatening Kenya and the wider Horn of Africa region. In the wake of a recent string of deadly attacks in northeastern Kenya, al-Shabaab has warned Kenyan officials that this is just the beginning, and that they will carry out further deadly attacks in the coming months. With al-Shabaab militants increasingly being force out of key areas in central and southern Somalia, increasing recruitments of militants in Kenya is likely to be seen as a way for them to not only replenish the group’s numbers, but for them to more power to stage deadly attacks.

On Tuesday, al-Shabaab militants attacked the higher education ministry in Mogadishu, Somalia. They used a car bomb before storming the building, killing at least fifteen people and wounding twenty others.

Police officer Mohamed Dahir disclosed that troops backed by African Union (AU) forces regained control of the building after around an hour-long attack, which began when “a car loaded with explosives rammed the gate.”   Police and eyewitnesses reported that the car bomb caused a huge explosion that effectively allowed the gunmen to force their way into the fortified building. According to Mohamed Yusuf Osman, the internal security ministry spokesman, six al-Shabaab gunmen were killed in the attack, “the security forces and AU peacekeepers shot and killed four of the attackers, while the other two blew themselves up.”

Al-Shabaab spokesman Abdulaziz Abu Musab claimed responsibility for the attack, indicating that al-Shabaab gunmen had been “fully in control” of the ministry and that they were also able to enter a neighbouring building that houses the oil ministry. Both buildings are located in the capital’s K5 district, which has been targeted by a string of similar attacks in recent months, with a car bombing to force entry into fortified buildings followed by an armed raid becoming the militant group’s trademark tactic. Last month, al-Shabaab gunmen stormed the fortified Maka al Mukurama hotel in Mogadishu. While earlier this month, the militant group carried out its deadliest attack yet, when al-Shabaab gunmen killed 148 people in a day-long siege at a university in neighbouring Kenya’s northeastern town of Garissa.

ISIS ‘hours away’ from Capturing Ramadi

15 April– Falih Essawi, the deputy head of Iraq’s Anbar Provincial Council, has stated militants from Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) could be “hours away” from taking the key city of Ramadi. Ramadi, 70 miles west of Baghdad, is the capital of Iraq’s Anbar Province. Essawi said it is unclear how long government troops can hold their front line, adding that security is “collapsing rapidly in the city.”

ISIS was dealt a major blow earlier in April when Iraqi troops recaptured Tikrit. Prime Minister Haidar Al-Abadi said that after the recapture of Tikrit, the next military mission would be to clear ISIS militants from Anbar. Despite this announcement, ISIS fighters have intensified their offensive in Anbar province.

ISIS took control of southern routes into Ramadi in 2014. Over the weekend, the militants captured its northern routes and several districts in the city. An assault that included suicide and car bombs killed 10 Iraqi security forces and wounded the head of the Iraqi military operations in Anbar, General Qassim al-Muhammadi.

Earlier today, ISIS made advances in three eastern areas:  Albu Soda, Albu Ghanem and parts of Soufiya. In Soufiya, the militants bombed a police station and took over a power plant. Heavy fighting near the provincial capital caused residents to flee from three villages after they were captured by ISIS fighters. Departing residents said that in the east, fighting is now two kilometres away from local government buildings.

Essawi has called for reinforcements from the Iraqi government for and the US-led coalition, just a day after Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi met with President Barack Obama in Washington to seek more support for the fight against ISIS. In recent weeks, the US military has carried out multiple airstrikes against ISIS targets in the region.

On Sunday, ISIS targeted the headquarters of an Iraqi Army brigade stationed in the Thar Thar area. The region, northwest of Baghdad, is strategic. ISIS control of Thar Thar allows them a logistical supply line between the Anbar and Salahaddin provinces. The assault marks the second time in as many months that the group has captured Iraqi military headquarters in the region. The attack has been confirmed in the Iraqi media. Reports suggest that the assault began with three suicide bombers attacking the headquarters.

The Anbar Province covers nearly 140,000 square kilometres of land, extending from the Euphrates in the east to borders with Jordan, Syria and Saudi Arabia in the west, northwest and southwest. The vast, mostly desert region is home to approximately 1.5 million people. The province has major highways which link it through Baghdad, as well as Amman and Damascus. Clearing the area of ISIS fighters will be difficult and costly, but the recapture of the province will cut ISIS supply routes to Mosul, and strain the group’s communication lines with eastern Syria. Iraq is acutely aware of the repercussions of ISIS falling into the hands of Ramadi. It is a strategic imperative.

Yemen Declares Force Majeure, Ban on Maritime Navigation

On Monday, Yemen declared force majeure on the country’s sole liquefied natural gas plant, citing security concerns. In an emailed statement on Monday, Yemen LNG Co. stated, “Due to further degradation of the security situation in the vicinity of Balhaf, Yemen LNG has decided to stop all LNG producing and exporting operations and start evacuation of the site personnel. The plant will remain in a preservation mode.” Tribal fighters seized posts outside the city of Balhaf in south-eastern Yemen near the plant after soldiers fled. Yemen LNG processes and exports gas from the Marib area. The project has three long-term sales contracts with GDF Suez SA, Korea Gas Corp. and Total SA. With a stake of nearly 40 percent, Total is the biggest shareholder in the project. Others include Hunt Oil Co. and SK Innovation Co., the website shows.

Houthi fighters have seized areas near the LNG facility, however they have not attacked the plant itself, according to residents. Yemen’s LNG output comprises nearly 2.2% of the world’s total liquefied natural gas, according to data from the International Group of LNG Importers. The halt of operations is expected to have any immediate, significant impact on the market. More worrying is the transport of oil through Yemen’s strategic location on Bab el-Mandab Strait, which at its narrowest point is 18 miles wide. The strait is a critical chokepoint in international shipping; according to US figures, over 3.4 million barrels of oil per day passed through the waterway in 2013.

As of Monday, Yemen has banned entry into its territorial waters. Commercial and military vessels cannot enter the designated zones without authorization from the Yemeni government. Currently, only emergency goods and medical aid vessels will be allowed entry into Yemen, and must submit to search and approval by the coalition forces.

The decision came after several Iranian attempts were discovered to smuggle aid to Houthi rebels and militias loyal Saleh, according to Yemen’s Defence Minister. The ban is being enforced by the Saudi-led, anti-Houthi coalition, which is blocking access to ports in areas believed to be under Houthi control. BIMCO has advised all vessels to transit the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea at least 12 nautical miles outside Yemeni territorial waters when possible.

Marine insurer Skuld has stated that a significant number of reports have indicated that the Saudi-led forces have begun are enforcing the blockade, with emphasis on ports which may be under the control of the Houthi-led forces in the north and west of Yemen. There is a blockade of vessel traffic from Bab Al Mandab to Yemeni territorial water, with particular focus on vessels that may have recently called at Iranian or Iraqi ports.

An urgent member advisory from Skuld P&I Club yesterday warned: “Members with vessels at Yemen, or proceeding to Yemen need to urgently review the situation in the light of this development.” They have further advised any vessel currently berthed in a Yemeni port to consider raising its ISPS level to 3. Ships still intending to go to Yemen should review their charterparty terms and inform hull, war and P&I insurers.

Coalition warships are particularly focusing on vessels that may have called recently at ports in Iran or Iraq. UK P&I Club said that coalition forces had boarded several of its members’ vessels. Shipowners and operators – including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM and Evergeen are diverting to safer ports in the region. Container ships, bulkers and tankers are all said to be affected.

Last week, BIMCO stated, “If a port is taken/held by the Houthis and a ship is seen to be supplying the rebels, the ship could be at risk from air strikes or indeed naval action from the coalition.” Insurers are said to be refusing to cover vessels berthing in Yemen’s ports. Dryad Maritime has recommended shipowners, operators, and masters give Yemen “as wide a berth as possible”. Skuld told its members to “instruct the master to prioritise the safety of the crew and vessel”.

The escalating tension has increased the likelihood of an incident at sea between Iran and the coalition or international forces. MS Risk advises merchant vessels to be aware and vigilant to this threat – these tensions have led to increased naval boardings and inspections with little or no notice. MS Risk continues to advise vessels to avoid all Yemen ports until further notice. We continue to advise vessel operators to notify their insurers prior to sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb. Any vessels currently in the Gulf of Aden are advised to remain vigilant at all times. Pirate Action Groups (PAG’s) are likely to continue to operate in this region and may easily be mistaken for refugees fleeing the chaos in Yemen.