MS Risk Blog

Yemen update: 7 April

Saudi Arabia has announced plans to raze 96 deserted border villages in order to prevent their use by infiltrators from neighbouring Yemen, where the kingdom is leading airstrikes on Shiite Houthi rebels, according to a report released on Sunday. Hassan Aqili, border guard chief in the area, stated in the report that the operation would prevent the empty houses from turning into “a safe haven for traffickers and infiltrators.” The Kingdom has already demolished ten villages since the Saudi-led coalition began conducting airstrikes on Houthi rebel targets on 26 March.  Three Saudi border guards have been killed by gunfire from within Yemen since Riyadh launched air raids against the Houthis.

Despite the intensity of fighting, the ground situation in Yemen has only changed slightly, with the most change occurring in the contested Aden region. Over the weekend, southern tribal alliances have appeared to become more organised and effective at combatting the Houthi militia. On 5 April, the tribal militias claimed they recaptured the town of Lawdar from the Houthis, and will use the town to as a base to assist anti-Houthi forces in Aden. However, because the Houthis withdrew from the region, there is no effective gauge to measure the effectiveness of the tribal militias.

Amid the fighting, a humanitarian crisis is developing as infrastructure and utilities have been destroyed. Fighting on the ground and coalition-led airstrikes have prevented the delivery of essentials, including water, to civilian populations. Russia, China, and the International Committee of the Red Cross have called for a 24-hour humanitarian ceasefire in order to deliver much needed aid. The Red Cross planning to send two planes carrying medical help and other aid to Yemen over the next 48 hours. The humanitarian organisation is still seeking clearance to bring a team of surgeons from the ICRC and the medical aid group Medecins Sans Frontieres to Aden from Djibouti by boat.

Meanwhile, on 6 April, Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif told a joint session of parliament that during his visit to Saudi Arabia last week, the Kingdom formally requested Pakistani military assistance for the Yemen campaign, including combat planes, warships and soldiers. The two nations have a shared a strong relationship for decades, however there have been no public statements by Pakistani leasers to show support or intentions of sending troops. Pakistan is likely wary of straining its ties with Iran. The Pakistan parliament is deliberating the degree of assistance they will provide.

Al-Shabaab Storm University in Kenya

On Thursday, al-Shabaab gunmen stormed a university in Kenya, killing at least 147 people in what is now the worst attack to occur on Kenyan soil since the 1998 bombing of the United States Embassy in Nairobi.

The siege ended nearly fifteen hours after the Somali-based group’s gunmen shot their way into Garissa University campus in the pre-dawn attack. According to police chief Joseph Boinet, the attackers “shot indiscriminately” when they entered the university compound. Police later surrounded the campus and exchanged gunfire with the attackers however they were repeatedly repelled.  According to Interior Minister Joseph Nkaissery, four gunmen strapped with explosives were behind the attack – the same number of gunmen that killed 67 people during the 2013 attack on the Westgate Shopping Centre in Nairobi. On the ground sources have disclosed that the militants spared the lives of Muslim students and took many Christian hostages. Officials have indicated that the death toll stands at 147 however they have warned that this toll is likely to increase in the coming days as officers search the campus. At least 79 people were injured, with many airlifted to hospitals in Nairobi. More than 500 students managed to escape. Troops continued to search the campus for any possible insurgents until the siege was declared over late on Thursday, with the national disaster operations centre disclosing that the raid had “ended with all four terrorists killed.” Officials have offered a US $215,000 bounty for the capture of alleged al-Shabaab commander Mohamed Mohamud, a former Kenyan teacher believed to now be in Somalia. He is said to be the mastermind of the Garissa attacks.

Hours into the raid, al-Shabaab spokesman claimed responsibility for the attack on the campus in Garissa, a town located 200 kilometres (120 miles) from the Somali border. The attack comes days after the Australian government warned that it had intelligence that the militant group was planning to carry out attacks in crowded places in the capital city Nairobi.

The latest attack in Kenya has prompted officials from that country, and neighbouring Somalia, to call for closer cooperation. On Friday, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud stated that Somalia and Kenya must boost security cooperation between them.

Cooperation and Connectivity in the Western Balkans

The ministers from six Balkan states recently met in Kosovo’s capital, Pristina, for a regional ministerial conference. The meeting of the “Western Balkans 6” begun with a summit in Kosovo that brought together the Foreign and Infrastructure ministers of Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and for the first time, Serbia. The regional decision makers met alongside senior representatives from the international community, including Johannes Han, Commissioner for European Neighborhood Policy and Enlargement, and the European Commissioner for Transport, Violeta Bulc, who addressed the conference by video call.

The joint meeting of the Balkan ministers and European Union officials was organized in the same format as all European Union meetings and was chaired by Kosovo’s Deputy PM, Hashim Thaçi. The meeting in Kosovo had been preceded by a series of conferences held in Belgrade, Berlin, and Budva, as well as by a number of informal ministerial meetings. The meetings that created a pathway to this most recent Conference were used to emphasize the need to define common infrastructural and energy projects. At these precursor meetings the Western Balkan countries committed to annually prepare and submit national programs of economic reform to the European Commission.

During the conference in Pristina, discussions for the establishment of a Central Region Transport Network took place. If implemented, this network would ensure a better connection between all the Western Balkans and the European Union, with developments in connections between major cities, economic centers, and the most important seaports. Not only this, but it would also guarantee progression towards a more transparent decision-making process and coordinated approach to economics and infrastructure for the six participating countries. In so far as to say, the meeting emphasized the importance of regional infrastructural connectivity for the implementation of major regional projects in transport and energy.

The plans for such developments are to be presented to the European Commission and European Union countries at a Western Balkans conference, scheduled for late summer in Vienna. If successful, the plans made at this most recent Balkan ministerial meeting will be followed up in Vienna to enable significant connectivity improvements in the region, which will boost overall competitiveness, raise job growth, enable further job creation, and make a real improvement to the lives of Balkan inhabitants.

Whilst the joint meeting itself represented a significant step towards creating a Western Balkans transport network, the meeting also reflected the combination of modest steps and giant leaps the Balkans have taken in cooperation and tolerance since the Balkan conflicts of the 1990’s. Notably, the developments have taken place in the midst of the continued ethnic division and political instability that has become the reoccurring theme since the breakup of Yugoslavia. The modest steps manifest in the sheer participation in the joint meeting, held in Kosovo, as this is the first time Serbia has attended, which serves to illustrate the inclusive nature of the meeting’s cooperation.

On the other hand, the giant leaps in development in cooperation and tolerance between Western Balkan states are characterized by their will to reignite past connections, albeit in a very different way to their former Yugoslav ties, to intensify economic cooperation between them. The intensification of economic cooperation will require EU-compatible reforms in order to ensure the best regulatory environment to implement and operate the planned projects. Moreover, it also means the Balkan states must establish core investment priorities, credible planning, and funding mechanisms, as well as ensuring that their individual countries have the fiscal space to take up the necessary loan-financing to get all the projects implemented on time. From this meeting, it is clear that the path of development for the Balkans is inherently tied to their cooperation, connectivity, and importantly, their economic governance.

Opposition Wins Nigerian Elections

Challenger General Muhammadu Buhari has won Nigeria’s presidential election by 2.57 million votes, defeating incumbent Goodluck Jonathan.

On Wednesday, Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that Gen Buhari, of the All Progressives Congress (APC), won 15,424,921 votes (53.95 percent) of the 28,587,564 total valid ballots case. Rival Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) won 12,853,162 votes (44.96) in the elections, which was held on Saturday and Sunday. In a statement released Wednesday, INEC chairman Attahiru Jega stated, “Muhammadu Buhari, of the APC, having satisfied the requirement for the law and scored the highest number of votes, is hereby declared the winner and is returned elected.”

In an unprecedented step, which will likely help to defuse anger amongst disgruntled supports of the former president, Mr Jonathan called Gen Buhari at 5:15 PM (1615 GMT) on Tuesday, prior to the final results being declared, to concede defeat. A spokesman for Gen Buhari’s APC party praised Mr Jonathan, stating, “he will remain a hero for this move. The tension will go down dramatically,” adding “anyone who tries to foment trouble on the account that they have lost the election will be doing so purely on his own.” In a statement released late Tuesday, Jonathan stated, “I promised the country free and fair elections. I have kept my word.” He urged disputes over the results to be settled in court rather than on the street, adding, “nobody’s ambition is worth the blood of any Nigerian.” Jonathan will officials hand over power to Buhari on 29 May.

Gen Buhari’s move is a significant moment in Nigeria’s history, as never before has a sitting president lost an election. Jonathan had led Nigeria since 2010. While he won elections in 2011, over the past year, Nigeria has suffered a series of major attacks carried out by Boko Haram militants, with many believing that Gen Buhari is better positioned to defeat the militant group after Jonathan failed to maintain his promise of ending the six-year insurgency. While military gains against the militant group in recent weeks were welcomed, they were also seen as too little too late, particularly by those who have lived under constant threat.   This was reflected in Borno state, which has been the worst-affected region by the Islamists rampage. Initial results indicated that Buhari won 94 percent of the vote in the state as hundreds of thousands of people defied threats of suicide attacks and bombings to vote. While Buhari has acknowledged that the task of completely defeating Boko Haram will be challenging, along with other challenges, including dealing with widespread poverty, his military background resulted in many believing that the former leader is better equipped to fight the insurgents.

Buhari Leads in Nigerian Elections But Vote Too Close to Call

On Tuesday, partial results from Nigeria’s elections give opposition leader General Muhammadu Buhari a narrow lead over the incumbent, Goodluck Jonathan, however Mr Jonathan’s strongholds are yet to report final numbers and the final result of the polls is too close to call.

As of mid-Tuesday, just over half of Nigeria’s thirty-six states have declared returns in the vote. A number of the northern states, where Gen Buhari is seen as favourite, still have to declare. Results so far: from 25 states and Abuja (note: candidates need 25% in 24 states for first-round victory)

General Buhari: 10,454,137 votes; passed 25% threshold in 16 states

Mr Jonathan: 9,953,432 votes; passed 25% threshold in 20 states

This is Gen Buhari’s forth run at the presidency, with his prospects drastically increasing over growing frustration and criticism of Jonathan’s handling of Boko Haram’s six-year insurgency.

As was expected, Gen Buhari swept the northern states of Kano and Kaduna however the number of votes he received crushed expectations and have dealt a major defeat to Mr Jonathan. In Kano, which is the state with the second-largest number of voters, Gen Buhari won 1.9 million votes while Mr Jonathan received 216,000. In Kaduna, Gen Buhari won 1.1 million votes to Mr Jonathan’s 484,000. Gen Buhari also won the southern state of Lagos while Mr Jonathan won a large majority in his home state of Bayelsa. While by Monday evening, Gen Buhari was leading by two million votes, this lead was significantly cut after Mr Jonathan gained a landslide victory in Rivers State, where there have been widespread reports of irregularities which have resulted in local officials imposing an overnight curfew in an attempt to prevent any violence from erupting. On Tuesday, electoral commission chairman Attahiru Jega disclosed that a fact-finding team deployed to the state had found there were some voting irregularities with the poll but not enough in order “to warrant a cancellation of the election.”

Counting of the votes in Abuja is being carried out in the presence of party representatives as well as the media and national and international observers. The winner of the 2015 presidential elections is expected to be announced at the end of Tuesday. A victory for Gen Buhari will effectively make Mr Jonathan the first incumbent to lose an election in Nigeria.