MS Risk Blog

Human Smuggling in Libya

30 April— Last week, the European Union agreed to triple the funding dedicated to patrolling the Mediterranean for illegal migrant ships. The EU has also doubled the emergency aid to front-line member states Italy, Greece and Malta, which deal with a massive influx of migrants coming across the Mediterranean. The new allocation of 50 million euros per year will be dedicated to reception centres for migrants, medical aid, or additional staff dealing with the influx. It is part of an overall EU fund for migration and asylum issues.

The EU also will send more naval ships from its member states to the region stem the growing migration crisis that has left countless dead as they seek to reach Europe from Africa. The governments also agreed to develop plans to combat the smuggling rings that have made a lucrative trade of bringing people to Europe. The UK offered to send a warship to patrol between Sicily and the Libyan coast. Germany, France, Ireland and other nations have offered ships as well.

EU leaders said the Frontex mission— which secures the external borders of the union, including from illegal immigration, human trafficking and terrorist infiltration— would now have the authority to conduct rescue missions in international waters.

The decision was made days after one of the deadliest migrant shipwrecks in the sea. Last Sunday, a ship carrying 550 people capsized. The Italian Coast guard recovered 9 bodies and 144 survivors. Nearly 400 people reportedly remain missing. If this number is confirmed, it will be the single worst refugee catastrophe in history. Yet despite the dangerous incident, the next day, ships from the EU’s Triton rescue programme clashed with people smugglers over the rescue of 250 migrants 110 kilometres off Libya. The smugglers reportedly fired on the Icelandic Coast Guard vessel Tyr in their attempt to recover the empty wooden boat from which the migrants had been rescued. An Italian tugboat was trying to take the wooden boat in tow when the smugglers raced in on a speedboat and sped away with the empty migrant boat.

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that since the start of the year and 21 April, approximately 1,750 have perished in their attempts to illegally migrate to Europe over the Mediterranean. In the same period in 2014, that number was 56. Joel Millman, a spokesman for the IOM, says that smugglers appear to be loading each boat more migrants, and are operating without fear of punishment.

Smuggling has become increasingly lucrative, and in Libya, which is divided by opposing governments and spiralling ever deeper into chaos, the market is thriving. One anonymous smuggler says, “A fishing boat worth 40,000 dinar, (£20,000) can be sold for smuggling for £100,000. It’s an unimaginable amount of money. The boats are brought in from Egypt, they’re bad quality and you load it with 90 or 100 people, and some of them get there and others will die.” The operations are run through a complex criminal and tribal network; the UN estimates that smuggling is worth over £100m a year. Despite the dangers, new migrants–“cargo”– arrives daily.

The migrants often originate in sub-Saharan Africa. They pay repeatedly to be taken to the next stage of migration. The migrants are often hidden in cargo trucks and not given food or water for days. In the dessert the smugglers use hidden trails, and will sometimes abandon the migrants in the middle of the desert, telling them, “follow these power lines and eventually, you’ll reach a city”. Many die en-route.

For those that do make it, many aim for Libya’s coastal waters. The anonymous smuggler reported that the areas of Sabratha and Zuwarah, west of Tripoli near the Tunisian border, are under the control of smugglers. They use the official sea ports for smuggling immigrants, and load people from the port docks. He says he tells each migrant the risk before they embark. If they pay more, they are allowed onto a better quality boat. They are offered discounts if they choose to get on an overcrowded or less seaworthy boat.

EU Foreign Affairs Chief Federica Mogherini was tasked to ask the United Nations for permission to use air and naval power to destroy smugglers’ boats along the Libyan coast before they can use them. Ban Ki-moon, UN secretary-general, disagrees with plans to mount military strikes against the boats. He argues that while smugglers use the boats to conduct criminal activity, targeting them could unintentionally harm Libyan fishermen, further weakening Libya’s economy. Although Ban has vocalised his opinion, he cannot prevent the UN Security Council from approving the strikes.

In Libya, the groups controlling Tripoli have said they will confront any EU operation that seeks to attack sites used by people smugglers. Muhammed el-Ghirani, Foreign Minister of the unrecognised Tripoli-based government, says his group has repeatedly offered to help deal with migrants, but their proposals had been rebuffed. International governments recognise only the Tobruq based government, led by Libyan President Abdullah al-Thani. It is so far unclear what the Tobruq government can do in a region that is controlled by opposing forces. It is likely that stemming the flow of migrants is incumbent upon finding a peaceful solution to Libya’s political chaos.

Protests Continue in Burundi as President Dismisses Opposition Calls to Step Down Next Year

Violent protests have continued since Sunday in Burundi, with a spokesman for the country’s president announcing that President Pierre Nkurunziza will continue with his bid for a third term in office.

On Wednesday, a telecoms official disclosed that authorities have cut mobile access to several social networks and messaging applications. Networks including Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp, which have been used to organize protests, were no longer accessible via mobile telephone in the capital on Wednesday, with officials providing no explanation for the service cut. A telecoms source confirmed that operators had been ordered in writing by Burundi’s telecommunications regulator, ARCT, to block mobile access to certain sites.

The move to block mobile access to certain social networks and messaging applications came after three days of violent protests in the capital Bujumbura. On Tuesday, anti-government protests continued, with police reinforcements boosting the numbers of security forces deployed to the streets. While protesters remained defiant, most were contained in the side streets and were blocked from the city’s center. On the ground sources have reported that protesters burned tires and erected street barricades in the capital. On Monday, the ruling party indicated that the protests in the capital are “nothing short of rebellion.” Officials have accused the opposition of trying to make the country ungovernable.

This week’s protests in Burundi erupted on Sunday, a day after the country’s president was nominated as the ruling party’s candidate for a third term in office, a move that has prompted complaints from the opposition and drawn criticism from the United States. Security was tightened across the capital city as the ruling CNDD-FDD opened a special party congress, during which President Nkurunziza was officially designated as the party’s candidate. Opposition figures have indicated that the move is unconstitutional and have warned President Nkurunziza that his efforts to remain in power will push the country back into violence. They have vowed to defy a nationwide ban on demonstrations and warnings that the army could be deployed. Washington has also condemned Nkurunzia’s candidacy, warning that the central African nation “is losing an historic opportunity to strengthen its democracy.”

Despite this, a spokesman for President Pierre Nkurunziza stated Tuesday that the president will continue his bid for a third term in office. Presidential communications chief Willy Nyamitwe stated that “we wont back down, that is out of the question,” adding that he blamed demonstrators for the violence. The government has banned all protests and has deployed large numbers of police and troops onto the streets, with on the ground sources reporting that police have fired live ammunition, tear gas and water canons at protesters. Hundreds of stone-throwing protesters have been arrested. Officials have indicated that at least five people have died since clashes broke out Sunday. Sources have disclosed that some of the protesters killed were shot at close range. Police officials have indicated that at least 37 officers have been wounded.

According to the United Nations, more than 5,000 Burundians have fled to Rwanda over the weekend, effectively bringing the total number of arrivals in April to nearly 21,000. The Rwandan government has warned that the number of arrivals could increase to 50,000 as tensions in neighboring Burundi continue to rise. Ariane Rummery, spokeswoman for the UN refugee agency UNHCR, has disclosed that most of the new arrivals in Rwanda are women and children, noting that the refugees have reported facing intimidation and threats of violence that are linked to the upcoming elections. According to the UNHCR, since the beginning of this month 3,800 Burundian nationals have also fled to the South Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Presidential elections in Burundi are due to be held on 26 June.

Sinai Liberation Day?

25 April marked the 33^rd annual Sinai Liberation day in Egypt, celebrating the return of the peninsula to the Egyptians in 1982. During a ceremony, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi saluted the residents of the region, and the sacrifices of the armed forces in the Sinai Peninsula. He announced the government’s new plans for development in Sinai, including the development of new cities, in particular, New Rafah and New Ismailia. Finally, the president expressed hope that these projects would create jobs for youths in the region.

Despite the positive message delivered by Sisi, the story in Sinai has been a troubled one in recent years. Since 2013, armed forces have struggled to maintain security in the region. Attacks against security forces in North Sinai have spiked to almost daily levels since the ouster of Islamist former President Mohamed Morsi in 2013. Egypt’s army, heavily reinforced in the region, has regularly declared arrests, confiscation, and deaths of militants in an effort to quell the operations in the region. In November, the most notorious militant group in the region, Ansar Beit al Maqdis, declared allegiance to Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

The new cities planned by the Egyptian government are the result of forced relocation of residents who live on the border with Gaza. A week earlier, Egypt’s Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab issued a ordering the isolation and evacuation of more areas surrounding Rafah in North Sinai. This expands the current buffer zone that was implemented by Egyptian security forces on the border with Gaza. Initially the evacuation was to clear all homes within 500 metres of the border, for fear that homes in the immediate vicinity would be used to cover underground tunnels which could smuggle individuals or contraband into the country. Hundreds of tunnels have bene flooded and destroyed. Currently, the border clearance is expanded to a one-kilometre-wide and 14-kilometre-long buffer zone on the eastern border of North Sinai as part of its fight against militants in the peninsula. The announcements of the buffer zone in recent months have caused the evacuation of hundreds of people, and the demolition of hundreds of houses. Mahlab’s announcement included a promise that evacuees would receive alternative housing and reparations, and a warning that state would confiscate the property of anyone who resisted the evacuation. The evacuations, with little notice, have raised the ire of local residents and caused human rights organisations to speak out against Sisi’s policies.

Meanwhile, on Saturday Egypt extended a state of emergency imposed on parts of northern Sinai. The initial state of emergency was put in place late last year after Islamist militants stepped up attacks in the peninsula bordering Israel, Gaza and the Suez Canal. In October, 33 security personnel were killed in an attack at a checkpoint in northern Sinai, one of the largest attacks to occur in the region. The attack was claimed by Ansar Beit al Maqdis, who seeks to topple Sisi’s government, but largely focuses their attacks on police and security forces in North Sinai. The state of emergency was extended for another three months in January. The current extension is to last for three months, and will impact Rafah, al-Arish, Sheik Zuweid and surrounding areas. It also extends a night-time curfew in place in the same areas.

In the midst of a growing battle against militants in Sinai and throughout the country, last month the US announced that it would lift the ban of the supply of military equipment to Egypt. The ban was put in place when Morsi was overthrown in 2011. The White House said it would release the equipment and “modernise” the way it provided military aid to Egypt, including a greater focus on counterterrorism, border security, maritime security and Sinai security. President Obama directed the release of 12 Lockheed Martin F-16 aircraft, 20 Boeing Harpoon missiles, and up to 125 M1A1 Abrams tank kits made by General Dynamics. With an influx of weapons, the mass relocation of residents, and intensified battles against militants in the region, Egypt hopes to see a second liberation in Sinai.

Series of Mysterious Deaths Plague Yanukovych’s Former Allies

Oleg Kalashnikov, a former Ukraine deputy and a member of Party of Regions was shot dead in Kiev at the entrance of his apartment on 15 April. According to the Interior Ministry’s statement, police are investigating his death as a murder. Kalashnikov had participated in protests in support of the pro-Moscow former President Yanukovych. This incident is the latest in a series of deaths involving allies of deposed President Yanukovych. Seven other Ukrainian officials died under mysterious circumstances this year. According to the Ukrainian authorities, all of them took their own lives in the past weeks, something that has raised many suspicions. These suspicions are encouraged since the deaths took place in a really short timeframe, targeting people that were associated with ex-President Yanukovych and under mysterious circumstances with the majority of the victims being under investigation by the Ukrainian authorities.

The first in the line of these deaths was Oleksiy Kolesnyk, ex-head of Kharkiv’s regional government, who was found hanged on January 29. It was followed by Serhiy Valter, who was a major in the south-eastern city of Melitopol, and was found hanged on February 25. Similarly to Chechetov that was killed only three days later, he had been accused of abuse of office and he was under investigation. Oleksandr Bordyuh, a former police deputy chief in Melitopol connected to Mr Valter, was also found dead at his home the next day. Similarly, Mykhaylo Chechetov, who was the deputy chairman for the Party of the Regions, died after he allegedly jumped from a window in his 17th-floor flat on February 28. The authorities claimed that he left a suicide note. He was one of the most prominent politicians under Yanukovych’s rule. Before his death he was accused by the new government of abuse of office and fraud and he was under investigation. He had been arrested a few days earlier as part of the investigation against him related to a series of laws passed in a controversial vote in January 2014 to crack down on the massive Maidan protests. He was suspected that he falsified the results of the vote. He paid bail and went home on February 23. Several hours before his death, Ukraine’s prosecutor general told the local media that new charges were being prepared against him. Only nine days later, Stanislav Melnyk’s death followed. He was an ex-MP in Yanukovych’s Party of Regions and the manager of several businesses in the separatist-minded eastern city of Donesk, and he was found dead by his wife in his bathroom on March 9. The authorities reported that they retrieved a suicide note that was asking for forgiveness. He was also under investigation and was facing charges of abuse of power.

In the next couple of days, Oleksandr Peklushenko, a Ukrainian former regional governor and an ally of the ousted Ukrainian President Yanukovych, was found dead on March 12. According to the Ukrainian authorities, he was shot in the neck and police claimed that initial enquires point to suicide. Peklushenko was the governor of the southern region of Zaporizhzhya from 2011 to 2014. He was suspected of arranging for demonstrators to be dispersed by pro-government thugs at the height of the protests against Yanukovych’s rule in January 2014, and he was facing charges of abuse of power. Sergei Melnychuk, who was a prosecutor in the southern port town of Odessa died ten days later on March 22. Police initially claimed that it was a suicide. But it soon emerged that alarmed neighbors had called the police after they heard noises that indicated a struggle coming from his house. Pathologists found that he had been badly beaten before he fell from his ninth-floor balcony. The same day, Odessa prosecutors registered his death as murder instead of police’s claims for his death being a suicide. They arrested a former police officer who they described only as ‘’citizen K’’.

On top of these deaths two other incidents were added to this puzzle. The first one concerned Yanukovych’s 33-year-old son who was found dead after his car apparently fell through ice on Russia’s Lake Baikal on March 20. The second and most recent one concerns the death of the journalist Oles Buzyna, who was widely known for his pro-Russian views. He was gunned down by masked assailants in a drive-by shooting, just one day after Kalashnikov was shot dead on April 16.

Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions, dormant since his deposition, said in a statement that the death of Peklushenko and others was a consequence of ‘’political reprisals’’ by the new government, accusing it of employing terror practices against its opponents. The Opposition Bloc, the country’s major opposition party, also shares the same opinion calling these deaths as ‘’bloody terror against opposition politicians and journalists’’. Despite Kiev’s rejection of the allegations that claim that these incidents are connected, there have been calls for a thorough probe that will help extinguish any lingering suspicions that these top figures of the previous regime are being extrajudicially punished. The Ukrainian judicial authorities seem to endorse the government’s opinion that these deaths may be motivated by ‘’fear of being held responsible’’ since they were under investigation.

Police were initially quick to classify the majority of these deaths as suicides. However, in recent weeks and in the absence of credible investigations and the rapid succession of the deaths within the wider context of Ukraine’s political situation, there have been suspicions that some of these deaths were politically-motivated killings, since the majority of the deaths took place amid mysterious circumstances and there were open investigation queries against these political figures.

Mali Suffers String of Attacks Targeting UN Mission

Over the past week, the United Nations mission in Mali has suffered three attacks, resulting in several deaths and growing concerns that jihadists operating in the region are once again gaining strength.

On Monday, UN officials in Mali reported that a driver was killed in an ambush on a peacekeeping supply convoy in northern Mali in what is the third deadly assault on the mission in less than a week. A statement released by the UN’s MINUSMA peacekeeping mission indicated that the civilian contractors were targeted at 11:30 AM, around 30 kilometres (20 miles) west of Gao, adding “initial reports indicate that at least one driver was killed, his truck was later set on fire.”

MINUSMA chief Mongi Hamdi has condemned the attacks, stating that the UN “…will adjust our security arrangements so that such crimes are not repeated. MINUSMA cannot tolerate this.” He has called for the perpetrators to be brought to justice and has urged the Malian military and police to increase security in the area. It was not immediately clear how the victim was killed however Monday’s attack comes just days after two drivers were shot dead as a MINUSMA supply convoy was ambushed nearby.

On Saturday, the UN reported that two drivers have been shot dead after a peacekeeping supply convoy was attacked in northern Mali. According to a statement released by MINUSMA, two assailants stopped the convoy some 15 kilometres (9 miles) from the main city of Gao and “coldly killed two drivers” in the attack which occurred late Friday. They later set the vehicles on fire. Officials have disclosed that a third person was wounded in the attack. No group has claimed responsibility for Friday’s attack, however the incident comes just days after an attack on the UN peacekeeping base in the same region as Gao, in which three civilians were killed and sixteen people were wounded. Al-Mourabitoun has claimed responsibility for that attack.

A suicide bomber attacked a UN barracks in northern Mali on Wednesday, killing three civilians and wounding sixteen people, including several peacekeepers. According to UN officials, the militant was attempting to drive into a camp used by the UN’s MINUSMA peacekeeping mission in Ansong, in the northern region of Gao, when the explosives went off. A statement released by MINUSMA disclosed, “the attack left nine injured, two seriously, among the peacekeepers from the Niger contingent. In addition, the explosion has killed at least three civilians. Seven (civilians) were also injured.” The UN mission in Mali has not disclosed whether the bomber was acting alone or if there were others in the vehicle.

In a recording released Friday, an al-Qaeda-linked group, led by Algerian militant Mokhtar Belmokhtar, has claimed responsibility for a deadly suicide attack that targeted the UN mission in Mali on Wednesday. In an audio message that was sent to Mauritanian news agency Alakhbar, which frequently publishes statements attributed to extremist groups that operate in the region, Belmokhtar’s al-Murabitoun group indicated that it had carried out the attack. The group disclosed that it had targeted Nigerien nationals because their president, Mahamadou Issoufou, had taken part in the mass Paris rally over the jihadist attack on French satirical weekly Charlie Hebdo in January. They further added that the attack was also an act of revenge for Niger allowing French and American troops on its soil, and described Wednesday’s attack as “the second operation to avenge insults against the Prophet,” referring to Charlie Hebdo’s cartoon depictions of Islam’s Prophet Mohammed. While the Malian government had initially reported that a civilian MINUSMA worker and a child were killed in the attack, adding that the suicide bomber was also killed and 21 people, including several peacekeepers, were wounded, al-Murabitoun has denied that any civilians were killed, arguing that this would not have been possible “given the distance between the camp and the town.”

It appears that al-Murabitoun is increasingly gaining strength and ability to carry out deadly attacks in Mali, with the militant group most recently claiming responsibility for the 7 March attack on a Bamako nightclub. Al-Murabitoun was formed in 2013 from the merger of Belmokhtar’s Signatories in Blood group and the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO). Belmoktar, a former al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) chief, is wanted by the security services of several countries after allegedly masterminding a siege in January 2013 of an Algerian gas plan, in which thirty-eight hostages were killed. He is also believed to have been behind twin car bombings that occurred in Niger in May of that year and which killed at least twenty people. Belmokhtar, who is thought to be based in Libya, has been designated a foreign terrorist by the United States, with the State Department offering a US $5 million reward for information leading to his capture.

Militants operating in northern Mali have staged a number of deadly attacks on UN forces, with at least 35 peacekeepers killed and over 140 wounded since MINUSMA was deployed in July 2013. The camp targeted on Wednesday is situated near the scene of the killing of a Red Cross worker two weeks ago. That attack was claimed by the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO). Last month, a Chadian peacekeeper and two children died when militants fired more than thirty rockets at a UN barracks in the northern city of Kidal.