MS Risk Blog

Ebola Cases in Guinea & Sierra Leone Rising Again

Researchers reported Tuesday that the Ebola strain in the current outbreak in West Africa is less virulent than the first one that appeared in 1976. The news comes as the latest figures released by the World Health Organization (WHO) show that the number of Ebola cases reported in Guinea and neighbouring Sierra Leone has risen for a second consecutive week.

According to a recent study, the results of the test on monkeys carried out by scientists at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) are considered important as they suggest that the virus, which has caused at least 11,000 deaths, is not becoming more severe. Instead, “…the new study suggests the current virus has a decreased ability to cause disease in their animal model compared to the 1976 strain.”

The 1976 strain is known as the Mayinga strain while the one that emerged in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone late in 2013 is known as the Makona Strain. The 1976 Ebola outbreak was limited, killing 318 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo, formerly known as Zaire. The deadliest outbreak with this strain occurred in Uganda in 2000, when 425 people died. Both of these outbreaks had a weaker impact as they occurred in rural and sparsely populated areas.

The latest figures released by the WHO on Wednesday indicate that the number of Ebola cases in Guinea and Sierra Leone has risen for the second consecutive week. According to the latest report, in Guinea, 16 new cases were confirmed in the week ending 7 June, with 15 more reported in neighbouring Sierra Leone. In its latest situation report, the WHO indicates that the Ebola virus has infected 27,237 people and killed 11,158.

In the previous week, 13 new cases had been reported in Guinea, which represented a clear increase to the nine that were reported a week before that. The global health agency has voiced concerns that the areas affected in Guinea have increased as in the week leading up to 7 June, two new cases were confirmed in Guinea’s capital city, Conakry, which had been Ebola-free during the previous three weeks. The virus also reappeared in the western Guinean region of Kindia, where three new cases were confirmed during this reporting period. Officials have reported that the pattern is similar in neighbouring Sierra Leone, where 12 new cases were confirmed in the last week of May, compared to just three that were confirmed in the previous week.

MERS Reported in South Korea

As of 11 June 2015, 122 laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) Coronavirus have been reported by the South Korean health ministry, including 10 fatalities, making it the largest outbreak of MERS outside the Arabian Peninsula. Over the past three weeks, more than 3,800 people have been placed under quarantine, 641 of whom have been released after testing negative for MERS. For those infected during either the first or the second wave of the outbreak, the virus’s maximum two week incubation period has elapsed, a fact which has caused health officials to speculate that the disease has already peaked. Whether it has or not will depend on whether the containment measures adopted by the South Korean government were able to identify, isolate and treat those who had come into contact with the disease.

First identified in humans in September 2012, MERS is a viral respiratory illness from the same family as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), the disease that struck China in 2003, infecting more than 5,300 people and killing 349 nationwide. There is no vaccine for MERS and doctors do not entirely understand how it is spread, except that it appears to be a zoonotic disease passed to humans from infected camels and bats. Most people infected with MERS become unwell quickly, experiencing fever, coughing and shortness of breath. Other symptoms may include diarrhoea, vomiting, nausea and muscle pain. Like other respiratory infections, it is not always possible to identify patients who have contracted MERS, as they may present with a range of non-specific symptoms in the early stages of the disease.

President Park Geun-hye’s government has been criticised for its failure to respond more swiftly to the outbreak of the disease and to identify “patient zero”: the 68-year old South Korean who returned home after an eight day trip to the Middle East where he had developed a cough and fever. After seeking treatment from four different health care facilities, the index patient was eventually hospitalised in Pyeongtaek, a city 65 kilometres southwest of Seoul. While refusing to name the specific hospitals and clinics visited by the patient, South Korean health authorities have confirmed that MERS cases were subsequently reported in three of the four institutions in question.

While health officials remain optimistic about containing the outbreak, its effect on South Korea’s economy is likely to have more far-reaching consequences. In what the Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol described as a “pre-emptive more to contain the economic fallout from MERS”, interest rates have been lowered by a quarter of a percentage point to 1.5 percent. While precautionary measures such as these are doubtless in order, their effects have yet to be felt. Consumer confidence has been noticeably shaken by the virus’s spread and South Korean businesses, particularly those in hospitality and retail, have reported a sharp decline in sales. Tourism and international business has likewise been effected, with over 54,000 foreign travellers cancelling their plans to visit South Korea this month.

As the situation in South Korea continues to develop, concerns have been raised by health care professionals over MERS potential to become a global threat. While MERS is considered to be a potential pandemic threat, it seems unlikely that this particular outbreak will take on such catastrophic proportions. First, MERS is not a human virus. While it can be contracted by humans from infected animals, it is not highly contagious; in order for it to go pandemic – to pose an existential threat to members of the community – it would need to mutate. Second, the outbreak is comparatively small and mostly centred on hospitals and clinics. Although MERS spreads poorly between people, medical procedures and equipment, such as respirators, may aerosolise the virus from the lungs and infect people nearby. As a situation like this is unlikely to arise outside of a hospital setting, the spread of the disease is likely to be slow and once detected, more easily contained. Third, MERS is not SARS. While related, these two diseases differ in one important respect: SARS had developed the ability to be easily spread between people while MERS has not. Whether MERS will at some point in the future undergo genetic mutation enabling it to infect humans more easily is, at this point, mere speculation.

Burundi Confirms New Dates for Controversial Parliamentary and Presidential Elections

On Wednesday, the presidency announced that Burundi will go ahead with parliamentary elections on 29 June and a presidential poll on 15 July.

While the elections have been delayed in line with calls from regional powers so that talks can take place between the government and opposition parties, Wednesday’s confirmation comes just a day after the president’s spokesman repeated that the divisive candidacy was “non-negotiable,” adding that there will be no further delays to the election calendar. The opposition has already rejected proposals for a new timetable, with officials indicating that conditions for holding fair polls were not met as independent media has been shut down and many opponents have fled the country.

Since late April, the East African nation has been in a political crisis over President Pierre Nkurunziza’s controversial bid to stand for a third consecutive five-year term. The opposition has branded the move as unconstitutional, stating that it is a violation of a 2006 peace agreement, which ended 13 years of civil war. The move has also sparked weeks of violent demonstrations. Around forty people have died in a police crackdown on protests in the capital city, Bujumbura, and nearly 100,000 Burundians have sought refuge in neighbouring countries. Last month, the president survived a coup attempt and has since been faced with growing international pressure, that has included aid cuts aimed at forcing him to reconsider. Despite this, the president has remained determined to proceed with his bid for a third term in office, going so far as to request Burundians to donate money to pay for the upcoming elections.

IS Offensive: A Year Review

Exactly a year ago, the Islamic State (IS) jihadist group launched its sweeping offensive that resulted in the jihadist group overrunning large areas of territory in Syria and in Iraq and which has led to the death of thousands and displaced millions of people.

With 12 months of bloody conflict, it is likely that the situation will continue before the IS gains can be reversed. Speaking at the end of the G-7 summit in Germany on 8 June, United States President Barack Obama disclosed that when it comes to IS, “we don’t yet have a complete strategy” adding that the reason why there isn’t a complete strategy so far is that “it requires commitments on the part of the Iraqis as well about how recruitment takes place, how that training takes place. The details of that are not yet worked out.” He did note that the Pentagon is currently busy drawing up plans in consultation with the Iraqis, and that once a plan can be signed off on, the details will be made public. This comment is similar to one he made back in August, when he stated, “we don’t have a strategy yet” to combat the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL/IS). Since his comments, the US and a coalition of allies have launched more than 4,000 airstrikes in Iraq and neighbouring Syria, however they have been unable to prevent key cities from falling to the jihadists. Furthermore, six months after the US began training Iraqi troops to fight IS militants, Iraq’s forces are often unable to match the jihadists. The US has trained around 7,000 Iraqi soldiers in a series of six-week training camps however none of those 7,000 were deployed in unsuccessful effort to defend Ramadi. President Obama has indicated that the US is “going to have to improve” training for Iraqi forces, leaving open the possibility of deploying additional American military trainers. Currently there are around 3,000 American troops deployed in Iraq.

Some Key events in the Conflict:

2014

June

9: IS-led offensive begins in Iraq’s second largest city Mosul.

10: Mosul falls while the surrounding province of Nineveh follows as multiple Iraqi security forces divisions collapse. Then-premier Nuri al-Maliki, announces that the Iraqi government will arm citizens who volunteer to fight.

11: Tikrit, a major city located north of the capital Baghdad falls to IS.

13: Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s top Shiite cleric, calls on Iraqis to take up arms against the militant group.

IS claims to have executed 1,700 mainly Shiite recruits, releasing photos of the killings.

29: IS declares a cross-border Islamic “caliphate” in Iraq and neighboring Syria, which is headed by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi.

August

2: IS launches a renewed northern offensive, which drives Iraqi Kurdish forces back and which targets minority groups with mass killings, rape and enslavement.

Thousands of members of the Yazidi religious minority are besieged on Mount Sinjar. This draws international concern and prompts calls for intervention.

8: The United States begins air strikes in Iraq. An international coalition follows suit.

17: Maliki steps aside and is replaced by Haider al-Abadi

19: IS says it has beheaded US journalist James Foley, releasing a graphic video of the killing which results in international condemnation.

Similar shocking beheadings take the lives of journalists Steven Sotloff, Kenji Goto; aid workers David Haines, Alan Henning and Peter Kassing, and Goto’s friend Haruna Yukawa.

22: Shiite militiamen gun down seventy people in what is an apparent revenge attack at a Sunni mosque in Diyala province.

September

23: The Anti-IS air campaign expands to neighbouring Syria.

October

25: Abadi declares first significant government victory in the Jurf al-Sakhr area, which is located near Baghdad.

29: IS executes dozens of Albu Nimr tribesmen. More mass killings follow.

November

14: Iraq forces recapture the strategic town of Baiji however it is later lost again to IS militants.

 2015

January

25: Witnesses and Sunni leaders accuse Shiite militiamen of executing over seventy residents in Diyala province.

26: Staff Lieutenant General Abdulamir al-Zaida announces that Diyala has been “liberated” from IS.

February

3: IS video shows Jordanian pilot Maaz al-Kassasbeh being burned alive in a cage after he was captured in Syria in December.

26: IS releases video of militants destroying ancient artefacts in a museum in Mosul.

March

2: Iraq launches massive operation to retake Tikrit from IS>

5: Iraq indicates that IS has begun “bulldozing” the ancient Assyrian city of Nimrud. IS later releases a video of militants smashing artefacts before blowing up the site.

31: Abadi announces that Tikrit has been retaken. However the victory is marred by pro-government forces who burned and looted dozens of houses and shops.

April

5: IS releases video of militants destroying artefacts at the ancient city of Hatra, which is a UNESCO world heritage site.

May

17: IS seizes Anbar capital Ramadi, which along with the capture of Palmyra in a Syria a few days later, signal its most significant

Scores Killed In Nigerian President’s First Week in Office

As President Muhammadu Buhari marked his first week in office, the death toll from two blasts in northeastern Nigeria climbed to 35 on Friday, raising the total number killed in suspected Boko Haram attacks to 82.

This week’s violence comes as President Buhari embarked on his first foreign trip since taking office, visiting neighbouring Chad and Niger, which along with Cameroon, are Nigeria’s key allies in the battle against Boko Haram’s on going uprising. During his trip, Buhari urged closer regional security cooperation, while thanking troops from Nigeria’s neighbours for their efforts to date. The newly elected Nigerian president has vowed to crush the militant group, however last weeks spate of bombings has highlighted the severity of the challenge.

Two blasts rocked northeastern Nigeria on Thursday, killing at least six people, just hours before President Muhammadu Buhari urged closer regional cooperation to defeat Boko Haram. According to officials, the first explosion occurred in the Borno state capital Maiduguri, which has been hit by a spate of bombings in recent days. The incident occurred when a truck carrying firewood rammed into a checkpoint outside a military barracks. Police and locals have reported that at least four soldiers were killed in this explosion, which one resident called a “suicide attack.” The second blast occurred at a busy market in Yola, the capital of neighbouring Adamawa state. At least two people were killed in the second incident and some 30 others were injured. While there was no claim of responsibility, both incidents will likely be blamed on Boko Haram. Just hours before these latest attacks, President Buhari arrived in Chad’s capital N’Djamena, for talks with his counterpart Idriss Deby on tackling Boko Haram. According to a statement from the office of the Chadian President, Deby has “reaffirmed Chad’s involvement and availability” to work with Nigeria.

At least eleven people were killed Wednesday in an explosion in Maiduguri. According to Danlami Ajaokuta, a civilian vigilante assisting that military against Boko Haram in the Baga Road area, “we have so far recovered six dead bodies. We are still working at the scene, so the casualties may rise.” Ajaokuta indicated that the blast, which occurred at 5:30 PM (1630 GMT), happened at a garage opposite a military unit and it appeared to have been caused by explosives that were left nearby. Since last Friday, Maiduguri, which has been a regular target for Boko Haram Islamists, has been hit four times.

On Tuesday, suspected Boko Haram militants launched a renewed attack on Maiduguri, just days after the military repelled an assault on the key city. At least thirteen people were killed Tuesday in a suicide attack at a busy cattle market in the northeastern city of Maiduguri. According to Red Cross officials and locals, the blast in the Borno state capital occurred at around 1:00PM (1200 GMT) as traders were wrapping up business for the day. The northeast spokesman of the Nigerian Red Cross, Umar Sadiq, indicated that there were 13 dead and 24 injured who were taken to two city hospitals for treatment. While there was no immediate claim of responsibility for the latest attack, it bore the hallmarks of the group, with one official indicated that the victims were “carefully targeted,” adding “the bomber chose the most crowded part of the market and set off his bombs.” The attack came after Boko Haram militants again targeted Maiduguri with rocket-propelled grenades in the early hours of Tuesday after hitting the city in a similar attack on Saturday. Residents reported that the militants arrived in the Moronti area of the city by river during the early hours of Tuesday however they were unable to advance further because of wide ditches and embankments that were dug by soldiers around the city limits. According to locals, the militants then began shelling Ajillari Cross, which is located about three kilometres (2 miles) away. One local stated, “we were bombarded by RPG’s (rocket-propelled grenades) by Boko Haram from Moronti…We all left our homes for fear of being hit inside. It was dark so we could see the trajectory of the RPG’s, which were red with heat… Soon afterwards, we saw troops in trucks moving towards Moronti and then a fighter jet also deployed not long afterwards.”