MS Risk Blog

Egypt Raises Security Levels to Maximum

Egypt has raised its alert level to maximum across all security headquarters in the country.

The decision came on Saturday after former President Mohamed Morsi was issued a preliminary death sentence on charges of orchestrating a prison break in 2011. It is expected that Morsi’s sentencing will lead to a rise of unrest in the country in coming weeks. Security presence at all vital facilities, and on major squares and streets, has been intensified across the country. Alert levels have also been raised at all stations belonging to the Egyptian Radio and Television Union.

An immediate spate of attacks followed Morsi’s sentencing. Hours after the death sentence was issued, unidentified gunmen opened fire on a bus in al-Arish, North Sinai, killing three prosecutors and a driver. Two judges were reportedly wounded in the attack. Later in the day, an IED targeted the main courthouse in Assiut, injuring a police officer. In Giza, a policeman was killed in a drive-by shooting. In Fayoum, a bomb exploded outside a church, damaging the building’s façade.

On Sunday, a bomb detonated near a courthouse in Port Said, injuring a small girl. In addition, unknown assailants attacked a security patrol on the Fayoum ring road. No injuries were reported.

Egyptian President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi issued an order providing greater security for judges, particularly those operating in areas dealing with “violence and terrorism,” according to a statement from his office.

Government opposition groups have already called for rallies. A statement from the Anti-Coup Pro-Legitimacy National Alliance has called on Egyptians to “to continue and escalate their non-violent struggle and actively participate in the revolutionary wave extending until July 3 under the slogan ‘Victory and Retribution.’” Protestors commonly gather after Friday afternoon prayers. It is likely that demonstrators will clash with security forces, resulting in an escalation of tensions and the possibility of violence. Major governorates likely to be affected are Cairo, Alexandria, Fayoum, Sharqia and Minya. In addition, militant groups have previously issued statements of support for Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, and are likely to conduct actions and issue statements of threat based on the verdict.

In addition to anger generated from Morsi’s sentencing, Egyptians have spoken out against another ruling. On Saturday, the Cairo Court for Urgent Matters designated all organized groups of dedicated football fans – known as Ultras – as terrorists.

The decision comes after a lawsuit from Mortada Mansour, chairman of Zamalek Football Club. Mansour claims that members of Zamalek’s hard-core supporter group, the Ultras White Knights (UWK), threw acid in his face and plotted to murder him and a former sports minister. Mansour also alleges that UWK is responsible for burnings buildings belonging to the national football association in 2013. UWK has a large following and is deeply politicised. In 2011, many of the Ultras participated in the uprising that forced out autocrat Hosni Mubarak. The group says they are now being persecuted for daring to stand up to the government of Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. Protests from hard-core football fans are likely to be scattered throughout the country, with the heaviest protests likely to occur in Cairo.

On Sunday, Egyptian authorities executed six men by hanging on charges of killing soldiers. The men were said to be members of Sinai Peninsula-based Ansar Beit al Maqdis, which pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in November 2014. Human rights groups appealed for a stay of execution; Amnesty International said the men underwent a “grossly unfair” trial and that the only witness during the hearings was a secret police officer. If the men were in fact members of the terrorists group, it is likely that retaliatory attacks will take place in north Sinai, Cairo, and in major cities throughout Egypt.

Since 2013, Egyptian security officials have reported near daily shootings at security forces, as well as an increase in the discovery of IEDs. In recent months, IEDs have been increasingly placed near power stations or electricity pylons, causing blackouts in affected regions. On Saturday, seven bombs were found near electricity pylons in Fayoum. The bombs were safely dismantled.

While the current government has taken a harsh stance against terrorism in the country, many fear that the regime has created conditions which could induce further violence. The 2013 designation of the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organisation has resulted in the arrest and detainment of thousands of individuals, and several trials (derided as unfair by rights groups)  resulting in mass death sentences. Further, many believe that the government is utilising the terrorist designation in an effort to shut down anti-government dissent of any nature. It is likely that the court decisions made over the weekend will degrade the security of the nation in the immediate to short term.

Burundi Coup Fails as Leader Returns

An attempt earlier this week to overthrow Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza ended in failure on Friday as coup leaders admitted defeat and were either arrested or forced to go on the run.

Earlier this week, General Godefroid Niyombare launched a coup in the Central African nation as the country’s president was in neighbouring Tanzania to participate in regional talks on the on-going crisis in Burundi. On Friday a spokesman for the president confirmed that Burundian forces have arrested General Nyiombare. Earlier in the day, a senior police official had indicated “General Niyombare has evaded us but we know where he is hiding,” adding that he is believed to have fled to a southern district of the capital. Two senior army officers and a police general, who have been accused of taking part in the attempted coup, have been arrested.

The dramatic end to the coup attempt effectively ended 48 hours of uncertainty as questions arose who was in charge of the country, which in recent weeks has been gripped by a political crisis over President Nkurunziza’s controversial bid to stand for a third consecutive term in office. Wednesday’s coup announcement resulted in international criticism. In emergency talks on the crisis on Thursday, the United Nations Security Council condemned the coup attempt and called for a swift return to the rule of law. The United States State Department indicated that Nkurunziza remained the legitimate president.

On Friday, the presidency announced that President Nkurunziza was back in the capital Bujumbura and that he will soon address the nation. According to an aide to the president, “he is in Bujumbura in a very secure place,” adding that he will address the nation today. The streets of Bujumbura were mostly calm, following fighting that erupted on Thursday between loyalist troops and forces supporting the General. On the ground sources have reported that police set up checkpoints along a highway in the southern region of the country. Protesters have indicated that they will return to the streets, a move that will likely lead to more clashes.

ISIS leader death unconfirmed as group launches bus attack in Karachi

On Wednesday, Iraq’s Defence Ministry reported that Abu Alaa al-Afari, second in command of Islamic State, had been killed in an air strike in country’s north. The Ministry’s website shows footage of what an air strike on the “Martyrs Mosque” in the village of al-Iyadhiya near Tel Afar. The ministry said Afari was killed in a coalition attack on a mosque, where he was meeting with other militants.

However US Central Command has vehemently denied that a coalition air strike had hit the mosque, and said it could not confirm any claims that the deputy commander had been killed.

The Iraqi government has previously announced the death of Islamic State militants who had not been killed. Recent reports suggested that IS leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi had been incapacitated by an air strike in the same region of Iraq. The Pentagon has also denied those reports.

In Turkey, foreign ministers of NATO nations met to examine how to fight Islamic State. The ministers met in Antalya discuss, among other things, instability in in Syria and Iraq, where IS controls broad swaths of territory. US Secretary of State John Kerry said his NATO counterparts wanted to see a clearer defense agreement with Gulf Arab states to fight terror ahead of a summit that President Barack Obama will host at Camp David on Thursday.

Meanwhile, a branch of Islamic State has claimed responsibility for a bus attack in Karachi, Pakistan on Tuesday. Men on motorbikes followed bus, which was carrying men, women, and children of a minority sect of Ismaili Muslims. The bikers fired on the bus with automatic weapons as it travelled through the city. When the bus stopped, gunmen forced their way on board and killed dozens of commuters at close range. The six gunmen killed 45 people and injured 13. It was the deadliest single sectarian attack in Pakistan since the suicide bombing of a Shia mosque in southern Shikarpur district killed 61 in January.

A survivor from the shootings said the gunmen began a systematic execution once on the bus. “They want to target us because we are not Muslims according to most people in Pakistan,” he said. Ismaili Muslims are part of an international community of Shia Muslims who follow the Aga Khan, a Europe-based spiritual leader and business tycoon. In Pakistan, many citizens hold to a strict interpretation of the Muslim faith, and consider Ismailis, Ahmedis, and other minority sects of Islam to be “un-Islamic”. To members of Islamic State or other Sunni-based terrorist groups, anyone who does not adhere to their strict and radical brand of Islam is considered heretical.

Both Islamic State and a Pakistani Taliban splinter group rushed to claim responsibility. Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement posted on Twitter accounts that described the Ismaili victims as “infidels”. Further, printed leaflets left near the scene of the attack also claimed it was the work of ISIS. The message said that the attackers were avenging, among other things, the “torture of Sunni women by the army” and the “killing of our fighters by the Karachi police”.

However, Jundullah, a Pakistani Taliban splinter group, also rushed to claim responsibility. A spokesman for the group said, “These killed people were Ismaili and we consider them [non-Muslim]. We had four attackers. In the coming days we will attack Ismailis, Shias and Christians.” Some Pakistani Taliban militants have pledged allegiance ISIS, however it is believed that the group’s presence in Pakistan is small.

Karachi is two years into an operation to target criminal gangs and terrorists in the city. The government of Sindh, the province of which Karachi is the capital, responded to the attacks by announcing the suspension of senior police officials and promising financial compensation for the families of victims.

Burundian General Declares Coup Against President Nkurunziza

In a surprise move, a top Burundian general on Wednesday announced the overthrow of President Pierre Nkurunziza. The announcement follows weeks of violent protests against the President’s bid to stand for a third term in office.

During a radio broadcast, General Godefroid Niyombare, who in February was dismissed from his position as the Central African nation’s powerful chief of intelligence, stated “regarding President Nkurunziza’s arrogance and defiance of the international community which advised him to respect the constitution and Arusha peace agreement, the committee for the establishment of the national concord decide: President Nkurunziza is dismissed, his government is dismissed too.” General Niyombare further disclosed that he was working with civil society groups, religious leaders and politicians in order to form a transitional government.

The announcement came just hours after President Nkurunziza arrived in neighbouring Tanzania for talks aimed at ending the crisis. The presidential office quickly dismissed the declaration, stating that it is “a joke.” While it remains unclear whether General Niyombare has the support of the military, on the ground sources reported that police have vanished from the streets of the capital city as thousands of people celebrated the coup attempt against the president.

According to an unofficial count by activists, more than twenty people have been killed since violent street protests erupted more than two weeks ago. Demonstrators, and the country’s opposition, maintain that President Nkurunziza’s bid for another five-year term in office violates a two-term limit in the constitution and the Arusha peace agreement, which ended an ethnically fuelled civil war in 2005 that killed 300,000 people.

Several Western donors, including the United States, have criticized the president’s decision to stand again. Growing international concern over the situation in Burundi resulted in East African leaders and a top official from South Africa to meet in Tanzania’s commercial capital Dar es Salaam in order to discuss the on-going crisis, which has already spilled over into a region that has a history of ethnic conflict. According to the United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, more than 50,000 people have fled to neighbouring states because of the violence in Burundi, with UN officials stating that the crisis is heading towards a “worst case scenario” that could see 300,000 people fleeing, with some relocating to other parts of Burundi, while others opting to flee abroad.

Liberia Celebrates End of Ebola

On Monday, thousands of Liberians gathered to celebrate the end of Ebola after the country was declared free of the deadly disease that has killed more than 4,700 people. Several dignitaries participated in the celebration, including the President of Togo, along with guests from the African Union, Ghana and Nigeria.   Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf closed the celebrations by recommitting herself to helping the governments and people of neighbouring Guinea and Sierra Leone to overcome the disease.

In a statement released Saturday 9 May, the World Health Organization (WHO) indicated that 42 days had passed since the last person confirmed with the virus in Liberia was buried. On Monday, the Liberian government declared a public holiday in order to allow workers and students to take part in a festival in the capital city, Monrovia. The ceremony however began on a sombre note, with testimonials from health workers and other staff in the country’s Ebola treatment units (ETU’s) as well as survivors and body disposal team members.

The WHO has hailed the eradication of the deadly disease in Liberia as an enormous development in the crisis, which has affected the West African region for over a year. However the United Nations agency has warned that because outbreaks are continuing in neighbouring Guinea and Sierra Leone, the risk remains high that infected people could re-enter the country. More than 4,700 people died during the Ebola crisis in Liberia, which remains the hardest-hit country by the outbreak. Neighbouring Guinea and Sierra Leone continue to report new cases on a weekly basis. While the number of new cases being reported has significantly declined in recent months, officials in both countries have noted that they have had difficulty in tracing new cases.

Latest figures released by the WHO indicate that 26,720 cases have been reported and 11,079 people have died from Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Mali, Sierra Leone and the United States, however officials have warned that the full scale of the Ebola outbreak may have been underreported. The latest outbreak, which was officially confirmed in March 2014, has killed five times more people than all the other known outbreaks combined.